Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “forced oscillation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,297 records · Page 72
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2008

2007 Research and Engineering Annual Report

Selected research and technology activities at NASA Dryden Flight Research Center are summarized. These following activities exemplify the Center's varied and productive research efforts: Developing a Requirements Development Guide for an Automatic Ground Collision Avoidance System; Digital Terrain Data Compression and Rendering for Automatic Ground Collision Avoidance Systems; Nonlinear Flutter/Limit Cycle Oscillations Prediction Tool; Nonlinear System Identification Using Orthonormal Bases: Application to Aeroelastic/Aeroservoelastic Systems; Critical Aerodynamic Flow Feature Indicators: Towards Application with the Aerostructures Test Wing; Multidisciplinary Design, Analysis, and Optimization Tool Development Using a Genetic Algorithm; Structural Model Tuning Capability in an Object-Oriented Multidisciplinary Design, Analysis, and Optimization Tool; Extension of Ko Straight-Beam Displacement Theory to the Deformed Shape Predictions of Curved Structures; F-15B with Phoenix Missile and Pylon Assembly--Drag Force Estimation; Mass Property Testing of Phoenix Missile Hypersonic Testbed Hardware; ARMD Hypersonics Project Materials and Structures: Testing of Scramjet Thermal Protection System Concepts; High-Temperature Modal Survey of the Ruddervator Subcomponent Test Article; ARMD Hypersonics Project Materials and Structures: C/SiC Ruddervator Subcomponent Test and Analysis Task; Ground Vibration Testing and Model Correlation of the Phoenix Missile Hypersonic Testbed; Phoenix Missile Hypersonic Testbed: Performance Design and Analysis; Crew Exploration Vehicle Launch Abort System-Pad Abort-1 (PA-1) Flight Test; Testing the Orion (Crew Exploration Vehicle) Launch Abort System-Ascent Abort-1 (AA-1) Flight Test; SOFIA Flight-Test Flutter Prediction Methodology; SOFIA Closed-Door Aerodynamic Analyses; SOFIA Handling Qualities Evaluation for Closed-Door Operations; C-17 Support of IRAC Engine Model Development; Current Capabilities and Future Upgrade Plans of the C-17 Data Rack; Intelligent Data Mining Capabilities as Applied to Integrated Vehicle Health Management; STARS Flight Demonstration No. 2 IP Data Formatter; Space-Based Telemetry and Range Safety (STARS) Flight Demonstration No. 2 Range User Flight Test Results; Aerodynamic Effects of the Quiet Spike(tm) on an F-15B Aircraft; F-15 Intelligent Flight Controls-Increased Destabilization Failure; F-15 Integrated Resilient Aircraft Control (IRAC) Improved Adaptive Controller; Aeroelastic Analysis of the Ikhana/Fire Pod System; Ikhana: Western States Fire Missions Utilizing the Ames Research Center Fire Sensor; Ikhana: Fiber-Optic Wing Shape Sensors; Ikhana: ARTS III; SOFIA Closed-Door Flutter Envelope Flight Testing; F-15B Quiet Spike(TM) Aeroservoelastic Flight Test Data Analysis; and UAVSAR Platform Precision Autopilot Flight Results.

Stoliker, Patrick↗
NASA NTRS2015

Stability of ENSO and Its Tropical Pacific Teleconnections over the Last Millennium

Determining past changes in the amplitude, frequency and teleconnections of the El Nio Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is important for understanding its potential sensitivity to future anthropogenic climate change. Palaeo-reconstructions from proxy records provide long-term information of ENSO interactions with the background climatic state through time. However, it remains unclear how ENSO characteristics have changed through time, and precisely which signals proxies record. Proxy interpretations are underpinned by the assumption of stationarity in relationships between local and remote climates, and often utilise archives from single locations located in the Pacific Ocean to reconstruct ENSO histories. Here, we investigate the stationarity of ENSO teleconnections using the Last Millennium experiment of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) (Taylor et al., 2012). We show that modelled ENSO characteristics vary on decadal- to centennial-scales, resulting from internal variability and external forcings, such as tropical volcanic eruptions. Furthermore, the relationship between ENSO conditions and local climates across the Pacific basin varies throughout the Last Millennium. Results show the stability of teleconnections is regionally dependent and proxies may reveal complex changes in teleconnected patterns, rather than large-scale changes in base ENSO characteristics. As such, proxy insights into ENSO likely require evidence to be synthesised over large spatial areas in order to deconvolve changes occurring in the NINO3.4 region from those pertaining to proxy-relevant local climatic variables. To obtain robust histories of the ENSO and its remote impacts, we recommend interpretations of proxy records should be considered in conjunction with palaeo-reconstructions from within the Central Pacific

teleconnections↗
DOE OSTI2022

Understanding Recent Global Hydroclimate Change Using Multivariate Detection and Attribution Techniques and GCM Experiments

The observed slowdown in the rate of global average surface temperature (T) warming during the post-1998 decade (referred to at the time as the “global warming hiatus”) posed a challenge for climate researchers because it was not captured in global climate models projection. Observational and modeling evidence hinted that that leveling of the T trend was linked with the simultaneous appearance of cold surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific that formed a protracted La Niña-like state, a phenomenon known as the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). It was however not clear whether the concurrent equatorial Pacific cooling was a regional response to the rise in atmospheric greenhouse gas levels or anthropogenic aerosols that is not captured by the climate models or whether it was an unrelated, serendipitous manifestation of a natural phenomenon, internal to the climate system. To resolve this issue, we proposed in this project to develop and apply fingerprinting methods to differentiate between the observed climate response to various external forcing agents and the manifestations of internal climate variability. The project also sought to find out if climate models are able to reproduce the change signals detected in key observational phenomena and if they can be used to investigate the underlying processes. As such we examined changes in global hydroclimate variability and in an outstanding example of regional hydroclimate change, namely the multi-decadal 20 th century change in Sahel rainfall.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1998

Design, Evaluation and GCM-Performance of a New Parameterization for Microphysics of Clouds with Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert Scheme (McRas)

A prognostic cloud scheme named McRAS (Microphysics of clouds with Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert Scheme) was developed with the aim of improving cloud-microphysics, and cloud-radiation interactions in GCMs. McRAS distinguishes convective, stratiform, and boundary-layer clouds. The convective clouds merge into stratiform clouds on an hourly time-scale, while the boundary-layer clouds do so instantly. The cloud condensate transforms into precipitation following the auto-conversion relations of Sundqvist that contain a parametric adaptation for the Bergeron-Findeisen process of ice crystal growth and collection of cloud condensate by precipitation. All clouds convect, advect, and diffuse both horizontally and vertically with a fully active cloud-microphysics throughout its life-cycle, while the optical properties of clouds are derived from the statistical distribution of hydrometeors and idealized cloud geometry. An evaluation of McRAS in a single column model (SCM) with the GATE Phase III data has shown that McRAS can simulate the observed temperature, humidity, and precipitation without discernible systematic errors. An evaluation with the ARM-CART SCM data in a cloud model intercomparison exercise shows reasonable but not an outstanding accurate simulation. Such a discrepancy is common to almost all models and is related, in part, to the input data quality. McRAS was implemented in the GEOS II GCM. A 50 month integration that was initialized with the ECMWF analysis of observations for January 1, 1987 and forced with the observed sea-surface temperatures and sea-ice distribution and vegetation properties (biomes, and soils), with prognostic soil moisture, snow-cover, and hydrology showed a very realistic simulation of cloud process, incloud water and ice, and cloud-radiative forcing (CRF). The simulated ITCZ showed a realistic time-mean structure and seasonal cycle, while the simulated CRF showed sensitivity to vertical distribution of cloud water which can be easily altered by the choice of time constant and incloud critical cloud water amount regulators for auto-conversion. The CRF and its feedbacks also have a profound effect on the ITCZ. Even though somewhat weaker than observed, the McRAS-GCM simulation produces robust 30-60 day oscillations in the 200 hPa velocity potential. Two ensembles of 4-summer (July, August, September) simulations, one each for 1987 and 1988 show that the McRAS-GCM simulates realistic and statistically significant precipitation differences over India, Central America, and tropical Africa. Several seasonal simulations were performed with McRAS-GEOS II GCM for the summer (June-July- August) and winter (December-January-February) periods to determine how the simulated clouds and CRFs would be affected by: i) advection of clouds; ii) cloud top entrainment instability, iii) cloud water inhomogeneity correction, and (iv) cloud production and dissipation in different cloud-processes. The results show that each of these processes contributes to the simulated cloud-fraction and CRF.

Sud, Y. C.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Large-Scale Influences on Atmospheric River–Induced Extreme Precipitation Events Along the Coast of Washington State

Transient, narrow plumes of strong water vapor transport, referred to as Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) are responsible for much of the precipitation along the west coast of the United States. Along the coast of Oregon and Washington, the most intense cool season precipitation events are almost always induced by an AR and can result in detrimental impacts on society due to mudslides and flooding. It is therefore important to understand the large scale influence on extreme AR events so that they can be accurately predicted on timescales ranging from numerical weather prediction to seasonal forecasts. Here, characteristics of ARs that result in observed extreme precipitation events are compared to typical ARs on the coast of Washington State using data from the Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2. In addition to more intense water vapor transport, notable differences in the synoptic scale forcing are present during extreme precipitation events that are not present during typical AR events. In particular, an anomalously deep low pressure system is stationed to the west in the Gulf of Alaska, alongside a jet streak overhead. Attention will also be given to subseasonal and seasonal teleconnection patterns that are known to influence the weather in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. While little influence can be seen from the phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and Pacific North American Pattern, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) can play a role in determining the strength of precipitation associated with in AR on the Washington Coast. Lastly, interactions between the MJO and other teleconnection patterns will be explored to determine key features that should be investigated when making subseasonal predictions for AR activity and the associated precipitation in the Pacific Northwest.

Collow, Allison↗
DOE OSTI2020

Compound Drought and Heatwaves at a Global Scale: The Role of Natural Climate Variability-Associated Synoptic Patterns and Land-Surface Energy Budget Anomalies

Compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events have garnered much attention in recent studies. However, thus far, the identification of such events is oversimplified, and their association with natural climate variability is not fully explored. Here, we derive anomalies in the weekly self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (sc_PDSI) and daily maximum temperatures to identify CDHW events from 1982 to 2016 over 26 climate regions across the globe. Using a Poisson Generalized Linear Model (GLM), we analyze yearly occurrences of seasonal CDHW events and their association with the warm and cold phases of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). ENSO exhibits robust association with CDHW events over the Southern Hemisphere during the austral summer and fall, while PDO influences their occurrences over the Western North America in the Northern Hemisphere during the boreal summer, which is supported by the composites of anomalies in the atmospheric circulations and surface energy budget. However, NAO association with CDHW events is relatively weak. The CDHW occurrence over other regions is driven by a combination of these large-scale natural forcing. Our analyses also highlight that the cooccurrence of weekly to submonthly scale anomalies in the observed temperature and precipitation may not be always aligned between the observations and the reanalysis. Therefore, caution must be exercised while explaining such observed anomalies on the basis of reanalysis-based circulations and surface energy budget. Lastly, our analyses provide a new insight towards concurrent extremes and should help foster research efforts in this area.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1985

Development of an unsteady aerodynamics model to improve correlation of computed blade stresses with test data

A reliable rotor aeroelastic analysis operational that correctly predicts the vibration levels for a helicopter is utilized to test various unsteady aerodynamics models with the objective of improving the correlation between test and theory. This analysis called Rotor Aeroelastic Vibration (RAVIB) computer program is based on a frequency domain forced response analysis which utilizes the transfer matrix techniques to model helicopter/rotor dynamic systems of varying degrees of complexity. The results for the AH-1G helicopter rotor were compared with the flight test data during high speed operation and they indicated a reasonably good correlation for the beamwise and chordwise blade bending moments, but for torsional moments the correlation was poor. As a result, a new aerodynamics model based on unstalled synthesized data derived from the large amplitude oscillating airfoil experiments was developed and tested.

Gangwani, S. T.↗
NASA NTRS1988

A review of turbomachinery blade-row interaction research

Analytical and experimental research in the area of unsteady aerodynamics of turbomachinery has conventionally been applied to blading which oscillates when placed in a uniformly flowing fluid. Comparatively less effort has been offered for the study of blading which is subjected to nonuniformities within the flow field. The fluid dynamic environment of a blade-row embedded within multi-stage turbomachines is dominated by such highly unsteady fluid flow conditions. The production of wakes and circumferential pressure variations from adjacent blade-rows causes large unsteady energy transfers between the fluid and the blades. Determination of the forced response of a blade requires the ability to predict the unsteady loads which are induced by these aerodynamic sources. A review of research publications was done to determine recent investigations of the response of turbomachinery blading subjected to aerodynamic excitations. Such excitations are a direct result of the blade-row aerodynamic interaction which occurs between adjacent cascades of blades. The reports and papers reviewed have been organized into areas emphasizing experimental or analytical efforts.

Smith, Todd E.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Testing of a Loop Heat Pipe Subjected to Variable Accelerating Forces

This paper presents viewgraphs of the functionality of a loop heat pipe that was subjected to variable accelerating forces. The topics include: 1) Summary of LHP (Loop Heat Pipe) Design Parameters; 2) Picture of the LHP; 3) Schematic of Test Setup; 4) Test Configurations; 5) Test Profiles; 6) Overview of Test Results; 7) Start-up; 8) Typical Start-up without Temperature Overshoot; 9) Start-up with a Large Temperature Overshoot; 10) LHP Operation Under Stationary Condition; 11) LHP Operation Under Continuous Acceleration; 12) LHP Operation Under Periodic Acceleration; 13) Effects of Acceleration on Temperature Oscillation and Hysteresis; 14) Temperature Oscillation/Hysteresis vs Spin Rate; and 15) Summary.

Ku, Jentung↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Breakout Reconnection and Eruption in a Double Null-point Topology

Basic Question: Why are some eruptions successful while others remain confined? • We analyzed an eruption associated with a C-class flare in a null-point topology (fan-spine/embedded bipole configuration) within NOAA AR 11791, embedded within a large pseudostreamer between two coronal holes. • About 4 hours prior, interchange reconnection at the null produced a faint jet and a B-class flare without any filament eruption. • Continued reconnection below the filament built a flux rope (FR) that rose slowly and later generated the C1.4 flare. The flux rope reconnected with pseudostreamer flux near inner null, producing a remote (third) ribbon at the base of the fan and partial ejection of the flux rope. • Multiple plasmoids appeared in two places: above the rising flux rope in the breakout current sheet (the deformed null), and in a vertical flare current sheet below the flux rope (quasiperiodic flare reconnection). • Weak, narrow, coronal and interplanetary Type-III radio bursts were also detected, suggesting that electron beams from the null were ejected into the heliosphere. • The partial FR ejected from the inner system encountered the overlying arcade and null of the big pseudostreamer higher in the corona and oscillated, but did not escape. • EUV and coronagraph images revealed a wave and a faint ejection from the pseudostreamer that propagated laterally southward with ~270 km s-1. • We suggest that the main factors leading to the confined filament eruption are (i) lack of significant breakout reconnection between the rising flux rope and the overlying arcade due to an unfavorable relative orientation of these flux systems; and/or (ii) insufficient free energy of the flux rope to overcome the tension forces of the overlying arcades.

J Karpen↗
NASA NTRS2004

Glow Discharge Plasma Demonstrated for Separation Control in the Low-Pressure Turbine

Flow separation in the low-pressure turbine (LPT) is a major barrier that limits further improvements of aerodynamic designs of turbine airfoils. The separation is responsible for performance degradation, and it prevents the design of highly loaded airfoils. The separation can be delayed, reduced, or eliminated completely if flow control techniques are used. Successful flow control technology will enable breakthrough improvements in gas turbine performance and design. The focus of this research project was the development and experimental demonstration of active separation control using glow discharge plasma (GDP) actuators in flow conditions simulating the LPT. The separation delay was shown to be successful, laying the foundation for further development of the technologies to practical application in the LPT. In a fluid mechanics context, the term "flow control" means a technology by which a very small input results in a very large effect on the flow. In this project, the interest is to eliminate or delay flow separation on LPT airfoils by using an active flow control approach, in which disturbances are dynamically inserted into the flow, they interact with the flow, and they delay separation. The disturbances can be inserted using a localized, externally powered, actuating device, examples are acoustic, pneumatic, or mechanical devices that generate vibrations, flow oscillations, or pulses. A variety of flow control devices have been demonstrated in recent years in the context of the external aerodynamics of aircraft wings and airframes, where the incoming flow is quiescent or of a very low turbulence level. However, the flow conditions in the LPT are significantly different because there are high levels of disturbances in the incoming flow that are characterized by high free-stream turbulence intensity. In addition, the Reynolds number, which characterizes the viscous forces in the flow and is related to the flow speed, is very low in the LPT passages.

Ashpis, David e.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Tropical Three-dimensional Cloud Climatology during El Niño Events with CALIPSO Level-3 Cloud Products

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a large-scale climatic phenomenon that originates in the tropical Pacific Ocean but affects global climate patterns. Its warm phase El Niño occurs irregularly every two to seven years and peaks in winter. A previous case study showed opposite cloud anomalies at high, middle and low altitude regions during a weak 2006/2007 El Niño and a moderate 2009/2010 El Niño, suggesting a non-linear response of tropical clouds to El Niño sea surface temperature (SST) forcing. To further understand the cloud response to SST, we examine the three-dimensional (3-D) cloud anomalies during all recent five El Niño events since 2006 using level-3 (L3) cloud products from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) mission. During its 17+ years operation, CALIPSO delivered near-global measurements of cloud and aerosol profiles at unprecedented high resolution and sensitivity. In this work, we provide a comprehensive picture of cloud anomalies during El Niño, with a particular focus on thin cirrus clouds at high altitudes, which are challenging for passive sensor detection algorithms. Specifically, the vertical cloud anomalies are calculated with the L3 3-D Cloud Occurrence Product, the horizontal cloud anomalies are from the L3 Global Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX) product, and the ice cloud extinction profiles and ice water content are obtained from the L3 Ice Cloud product. These findings will improve current knowledge of ENSO from a new perspective.

El Nino↗
DOE OSTI2023

Vessel Rupture Thresholds for Vessel–Bubble Interactions Using an Earthworm Vasculature Model

Intravenous microbubble oscillation in the presence of ultrasound has the potential to yield a wide range of therapeutic benefits. However, the likelihood of vessel damage caused by mechanical effects has not been quantified as a function of the numerous important parameters in therapeutic ultrasound procedures. In this study, we examined the effects of microbubbles injected into the vasculature of the earthworm. It was found that the elastic properties of earthworm blood vessels are similar to those of arteries in older humans, and that earthworms are well suited to the large number of experiments necessary to investigate safety of procedures involving microbubble oscillation in sonicated vessels. Microbubbles were infused into earthworm vessels, and the rupture time during sonication was recorded as a function of ultrasound frequency, pulse repetition frequency and acoustic pressure. A modified mechanical index (MMI) was defined that successfully captured the trends in rupture probability and rupture time for the different parameter values, creating a database of vessel rupture thresholds. In the absence of bubbles, the product of MMI squared and rupture time was approximately constant, indicating a possible radiation-force effect. Here, the MMI was an effective correlating parameter in the presence of bubbles, though the mathematical dependence is not yet apparent. The results of the study are expected to be valuable in designing more refined studies in vertebrate models, as well as informing computational models.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Enhanced interactions of Kuroshio Extension with tropical Pacific in a changing climate

Quasi-decadal climate of the Kuroshio Extension (KE) is pivotal to understanding the North Pacific coupled ocean–atmosphere dynamics and their predictability. Recent observational studies suggest that extratropical-tropical coupling between the KE and the central tropical Pacific El Niño Southern Oscillation (CP-ENSO) leads to the observed preferred decadal time-scale of Pacific climate variability. By combining reanalysis data with numerical simulations from a high-resolution climate model and a linear inverse model (LIM), we confirm that KE and CP-ENSO dynamics are linked through extratropical-tropical teleconnections. Specifically, the atmospheric response to the KE excites Meridional Modes that energize the CP-ENSO (extratropicstropics), and in turn, CP-ENSO teleconnections energize the extratropical atmospheric forcing of the KE (tropicsextratropics). However, both observations and the model show that the KE/CP-ENSO coupling is non-stationary and has intensified in recent decades after the mid-1980. Given the short length of the observational and climate model record, it is difficult to attribute this shift to anthropogenic forcing. However, using a large-ensemble of the LIM we show that the intensification in the KE/CP-ENSO coupling after the mid-1980 is significant and linked to changes in the KE atmospheric downstream response, which exhibit a stronger imprint on the subtropical winds that excite the Pacific Meridional modes and CP-ENSO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Efficient Langevin dynamics for “noisy” forces

Efficient Boltzmann-sampling using first-principles methods is challenging for extended systems due to the steep scaling of electronic structure methods with the system size. Additionally, stochastic approaches provide a gentler system-size dependency at the cost of introducing “noisy” forces, which could limit the efficiency of the sampling. When the forces are deterministic, the first-order Langevin dynamics (FOLD) offers efficient sampling by combining a well-chosen preconditioning matrix S with a time-step-bias-mitigating propagator [G. Mazzola and S. Sorella, Phys. Rev. Lett. 118, 015703 (2017)]. However, when forces are noisy, S is set equal to the force-covariance matrix, a procedure that severely limits the efficiency and the stability of the sampling. Here, we develop a new, general, optimal, and stable sampling approach for FOLD under noisy forces. We apply it for silicon nanocrystals treated with stochastic density functional theory and show efficiency improvements by an order-of-magnitude.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Analysis of the classical trajectory treatment of photon dynamics for polaritonic phenomena

Simulating photon dynamics in strong light–matter coupling situations via classical trajectories is proving to be powerful and practical. Here, in this work, we analyze the performance of the approach through the lens of the exact factorization approach. Since the exact factorization enables a rigorous definition of the potentials driving the photonic motion, it allows us to identify that the underestimation of photon number and intensities observed in earlier work is primarily due to an inadequate accounting of light–matter correlation in the classical Ehrenfest force rather than errors from treating the photons quasiclassically per se. The latter becomes problematic when the number of photons per mode begins to exceed a half.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Influence of ENSO Diversity on Future Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences seasonal Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity by impacting environmental conditions important for TC genesis. However, the influence of future climate change on the teleconnection between ENSO and Atlantic TCs is uncertain, as climate change is expected to impact both ENSO and the mean climate state. We used the Weather Research and Forecasting Model on a tropical channel domain to simulate 5-member ensembles of Atlantic TC seasons in historical and future climates under different ENSO conditions. Experiments were forced with idealized sea surface temperature configurations based on the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble representing: a monthly varying climatology, eastern Pacific El Niño, central Pacific El Niño, and La Niña. The historical simulations produced fewer Atlantic TCs during eastern Pacific El Niño compared to central Pacific El Niño, consistent with observations and other modeling studies. For each ENSO state, the future simulations produced a similar teleconnection with Atlantic TCs as in the historical simulations. Specifically, La Niña continues to enhance Atlantic TC activity, and El Niño continues to suppress Atlantic TCs, with greater suppression during eastern Pacific El Niño compared to central Pacific El Niño. In addition, we found a decrease in the Atlantic TC frequency in the future relative to historical regardless of ENSO state, which was associated with a future increase in northern tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear and a future decrease in the zonal tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, corresponding to a more El Niño–like mean climate state. Our results indicate that ENSO will remain useful for seasonal Atlantic TC prediction in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1986

The kinetic and available potential energy budget of a winter extratropical cyclone system

The energy budget of an extratropical cyclone system which traversed North America and intensified through the period January 9-11, 1975 is presented. The objectives of the study are: (1) to document the complete energy budget of a significant winter cyclone event, and (2) to comment on the significance of latent heat release (LHR) in the cyclone's evolution. Results reveal an overall increase in both kinetic (K) and available potential energy (A). K increases are accounted for by boundary flux convergence of K, while A increases are due to generation by LHR and K to A conversion. In addition, the general A increase is accompanied by a 24 h oscillation that is explained largely by the flux quantity in the A budget equation and is correlated with a similar fluctuation in the K to A conversion. LHR does not appear to be critical in the development of this cyclone system. Rather, LHR acts to increase the intensity of the event. It is hypothesized that the direct influence that LHR had on the deepening cyclone's reduced mass was augmented by an indirect influence, in which pre-existing dry dynamical forcing was enhanced by diabatic heating, thus leading to accelerated cyclone development at a later time.

Smith, P. J.↗