Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “environmental changes”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,297 records · Page 72
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2016

Thermal Testing and Model Correlation for Advanced Topographic Laser Altimeter Instrument (ATLAS)

The Advanced Topographic Laser Altimeter System (ATLAS) part of the Ice Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite 2 (ICESat-2) is an upcoming Earth Science mission focusing on the effects of climate change. The flight instrument passed all environmental testing at GSFC (Goddard Space Flight Center) and is now ready to be shipped to the spacecraft vendor for integration and testing. This topic covers the analysis leading up to the test setup for ATLAS thermal testing as well as model correlation to flight predictions. Test setup analysis section will include areas where ATLAS could not meet flight like conditions and what were the limitations. Model correlation section will walk through changes that had to be made to the thermal model in order to match test results. The correlated model will then be integrated with spacecraft model for on-orbit predictions.

Thermal↗
DOE OSTI2022

The future of fungi: threats and opportunities

The fungal kingdom represents an extraordinary diversity of organisms with profound impacts across animal, plant, and ecosystem health. Fungi simultaneously support life, by forming beneficial symbioses with plants and producing life-saving medicines, and bring death, by causing devastating diseases in humans, plants, and animals. With climate change, increased antimicrobial resistance, global trade, environmental degradation, and novel viruses altering the impact of fungi on health and disease, developing new approaches is now more crucial than ever to combat the threats posed by fungi and to harness their extraordinary potential for applications in human health, food supply, and environmental remediation. To address this aim, the Canadian Institute for Advanced Research (CIFAR) and the Burroughs Wellcome Fund convened a workshop to unite leading experts on fungal biology from academia and industry to strategize innovative solutions to global challenges and fungal threats. This report provides recommendations to accelerate fungal research and highlights the major research advances and ideas discussed at the meeting pertaining to 5 major topics: (1) Connections between fungi and climate change and ways to avert climate catastrophe; (2) Fungal threats to humans and ways to mitigate them; (3) Fungal threats to agriculture and food security and approaches to ensure a robust global food supply; (4) Fungal threats to animals and approaches to avoid species collapse and extinction; and (5) Opportunities presented by the fungal kingdom, including novel medicines and enzymes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Projecting Life-Cycle Environmental Impacts of Corn Production in the U.S. Midwest under Future Climate Scenarios using machine learning approach

Emission factors and process-based mechanism models are popular approaches used to estimate life-cycle environmental impacts. However, emission factors are often incapable of describing spatial and temporal heterogeneity of agricultural emissions, whereas process-based mechanism models, capable of capturing the heterogeneity, tend to be very complicated, and time-consuming. Efficient predictions of life-cycle environmental impacts from agricultural production are lacking. This study develops a rapid predictive model to quantify life-cycle global warming (GW), eutrophication (EU) and acidification (AD) impacts of corn production using a novel machine learning approach. We used the boosted regression tree (BRT) model to estimate current and future life-cycle environmental impacts of corn production in 12 U.S. Midwest at county scale under four Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s climate scenarios (RCP2.6. 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) for years 2009-2100. Results show that future life-cycle GW, EU and AD impacts of corn production will increase under all four scenarios, with the worst environmental impacts shown under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Significant spatial variation were estimated to be 3.6, 29.9 and 1.8-folds under the RCP4.5 scenario, and 6.6, 152.9 and 1.6-folds under the RCP8.5 scenario, respectively. Findings from this study demonstrate the importance of considering county-level life-cycle environmental impacts and the influences of climate change in future years to aid in developing potential adaptation and mitigation programs and policies.

Machine learning, climate change, projections, env↗
DOE OSTI2022

Growing impact of wildfire on western US water supply

Streamflow often increases after fire, but the persistence of this effect and its importance to present and future regional water resources are unclear. This paper addresses these knowledge gaps for the western United States (WUS), where annual forest fire area increased by more than 1,100% during 1984 to 2020. Among 72 forested basins across the WUS that burned between 1984 and 2019, the multibasin mean streamflow was significantly elevated by 0.19 SDs (P < 0.01) for an average of 6 water years postfire, compared to the range of results expected from climate alone. Significance is assessed by comparing prefire and postfire streamflow responses to climate and also to streamflow among 107 control basins that experienced little to no wildfire during the study period. The streamflow response scales with fire extent: among the 29 basins where >20% of forest area burned in a year, streamflow over the first 6 water years postfire increased by a multibasin average of 0.38 SDs, or 30%. Postfire streamflow increases were significant in all four seasons. Historical fire–climate relationships combined with climate model projections suggest that 2021 to 2050 will see repeated years when climate is more fire-conducive than in 2020, the year currently holding the modern record for WUS forest area burned. These findings center on relatively small, minimally managed basins, but our results suggest that burned areas will grow enough over the next 3 decades to enhance streamflow at regional scales. Wildfire is an emerging driver of runoff change that will increasingly alter climate impacts on water supplies and runoff-related risks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Optimal stomatal theory predicts CO 2 responses of stomatal conductance in both gymnosperm and angiosperm trees

Optimal stomatal theory predicts that stomata operate to maximise photosynthesis (A net ) and minimise transpirational water loss to achieve optimal intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE). We tested whether this theory can predict stomatal responses to elevated atmospheric CO 2 (eCO 2 ), and whether it can capture differences in responsiveness among woody plant functional types (PFTs). We conducted a meta-analysis of tree studies of the effect of eCO 2 on iWUE and its components A net and stomatal conductance (g s ). We compared three PFTs, using the unified stomatal optimisation (USO) model to account for confounding effects of leaf–air vapour pressure difference (D). We expected smaller g s , but greater A net , responses to eCO 2 in gymnosperms compared with angiosperm PFTs. We found that iWUE increased in proportion to increasing eCO 2 in all PFTs, and that increases in A net had stronger effects than reductions in g s . The USO model correctly captured stomatal behaviour with eCO 2 across most datasets. The chief difference among PFTs was a lower stomatal slope parameter (g 1 ) for the gymnosperm, compared with angiosperm, species. Land surface models can use the USO model to describe stomatal behaviour under changing atmospheric CO 2 conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Past and future ocean warming

Changes in ocean heat content (OHC) provide a measure of ocean warming, with impacts on the Earth system. This Review synthesizes estimates of past and future OHC changes using observations and models. The top 2,000 m of the global ocean has significantly warmed since the 1950s, gaining 351 ± 59.8 ZJ (1 ZJ = 10 21 J) from 1958 to 2019. The rate of warming increased from <5 to ~10 ZJ yr –1 from the 1960s to the 2010s. Observed area-averaged warming is largest in the Atlantic Ocean and southern oceans at 1.42 ± 0.09 and 1.40 ± 0.09 × 109 J m –2 , respectively, for the upper 2,000 m over 1958–2019. These observed patterns of heat gains are dominated by heat redistribution. Observationally constrained projections suggest that historic ocean warming is irreversible this century, with net warming dependent on the emission scenario. By 2100, projected warming in the top 2,000 m is 2–6 times that observed so far, ranging from 1,030 [839–1,228] ZJ for a low-emission scenario to 1,874 [1,637–2,109] ZJ for a high-emission scenario. The Pacific is projected to be the largest heat reservoir owing to its size, but area-averaged warming remains strongest in the Atlantic and southern oceans. Ocean warming has extensive impacts that pose risks to marine ecosystems and society. Here, the projected changes necessitate a continuation and improvement of observations and models, along with better uncertainty estimation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Inoculated biocrust cover and functions diverged over a gradient of soil textures and water availability

Restoring biological crust (biocrust) in disturbed drylands is challenging due to the difficult environmental conditions, such as limited soil moisture, low soil nutrients, and extreme temperatures, that impede growth. Understanding how the key components of biocrust—mosses, lichens, and cyanobacteria—react to different environmental factors informs the optimal timing, locations, and species composition for biocrust reintroduction, thereby increasing the likelihood of establishment. Here, we inoculated soils with a diverse range of biocrust organisms, analogous to seeding an area with diverse vascular plant seeds, and varied environmental conditions to observe how these changes influenced the development and functions of reintroduced biocrust. We found that by manipulating soil texture and time spent wet, we can change the proportional cover of biocrust within a restoration‐like setting. Specifically, we found that 4 months after inoculation, finer textured soils that received more water become dominated by moss cover, while coarser textured soils with less water remained dominated by cyanobacteria cover, and the interactions between texture and time spent wet strongly influenced cover. We found biocrust morphological group cover had a small, but detectable, effect on ecosystem functions (soil stability and nitrogenase activity, a proxy for nitrogen fixation), but that environmental conditions had a stronger impact on the functions we measured. Manipulative experiments in controlled environments, like this one, can help elucidate the mechanisms underlying the establishment rate and patterns of biocrusts post‐inoculation, and inform implementation of inoculations in the field.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2023

Independence of Environmental and Mechanical Damages on Silicone Adhesive Stored in a Thermo-Oxidative Environment

Abstract Elastomeric polymer materials hold a special place in today’s industrial sectors with respect to structural application needs. Low quality materials are detrimental to industries like aerospace, and automotive engineering. Assessment of the durability of elastomers for structural applications has been of much interest among the literary circles for decades and new materials keep outperforming the existing ones. Polymeric adhesives are one of the most abundantly used materials in these industries. All polymeric materials get damaged when in contact with aggressive environments in presence of high temperature and oxygen. Commonly referred to as thermo-oxidation, this environment exposes the material to heat and oxidation reactions in presence of oxygen. Resultantly, during service life, the damage to the polymer matrix is primarily caused by two factors: mechanical damage and environmental aging. Environmental aging is an irreversible phenomenon caused by changes in the molecular structure while mechanical damage maintains the shape of the polymer matrix, and the deterioration is mostly due to polymer chain mobility. Environmental aging can be caused by a single environmental agent or by a synergized impact of several environmental elements. Increasing temperature is found to be proportional to decreasing tensile strength and toughness of material. The rate and extent of degradation can be accessed by scrutinizing the changes in constitutive behavior of material through mechanical and chemical properties. Accelerated thermal aging is among the most common modes of process related degradation, leading generally to chain scission, and crosslinking phenomena and reduced resistance to fracture stress, and strain. In this experimental study, our goal is to separate the environmental degradation from mechanical damage. A silicone-based adhesive was aged in thermo-oxidative at (0%RH) aging environment. The damage and decay mechanisms have been used to draw a distinction between environmental degradation and mechanical damage. Material characterization included uniaxial tensile test (failure and cyclic) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) tests on as-received and aged samples. Aging was conducted at three different temperatures (60°C, 80°C and 95°C) and six different exposure durations (1, 3, 10, 30, 90 and 200 days). This work confirms that environmental damage is superposed on top of the mechanical damage, and thus, they are separable. The total mechanical and environmental damage is a synergized effect of all exposure conditions and parameters involved i.e., aging time, temperature, and oxygen. The chemistry and mechanics of the polymer degradation were found to be in good agreement with each other.

Alazhary, Sharif↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Fresh Take: Seasonal Changes in Terrestrial Freshwater Inputs Impact Salt Marsh Hydrology and Vegetation Dynamics

Abstract Salt marshes exist at the terrestrial-marine interface, providing important ecosystem services such as nutrient cycling and carbon sequestration. Tidal inputs play a dominant role in salt marsh porewater mixing, and terrestrially derived freshwater inputs are increasingly recognized as important sources of water and solutes to intertidal wetlands. However, there remains a critical gap in understanding the role of freshwater inputs on salt marsh hydrology, and how this may impact marsh subsurface salinity and plant productivity. Here, we address this knowledge gap by examining the hydrologic behavior, porewater salinity, and pickleweed ( Sarcocornia pacifica also known as Salicornia pacifica) plant productivity along a salt marsh transect in an estuary along the central coast of California. Through the installation of a suite of hydrometric sensors and routine porewater sampling and vegetation surveys, we sought to understand how seasonal changes in terrestrial freshwater inputs impact salt marsh ecohydrologic processes. We found that salt marsh porewater salinity, shallow subsurface saturation, and pickleweed productivity are closely coupled with elevated upland water level during the winter and spring, and more influenced by tidal inputs during the summer and fall. This seasonal response indicates a switch in salt marsh hydrologic connectivity with the terrestrial upland that impacts ecosystem functioning. Through elucidating the interannual impacts of drought on salt marsh hydrology, we found that the severity of drought and historical precipitation can impact contemporary hydrologic behavior and the duration and timing of the upland-marsh hydrologic connectivity. This implies that the sensitivity of salt marshes to climate change involves a complex interaction between sea level rise and freshwater inputs that vary at seasonal to interannual timescales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Plant organic matter inputs exert a strong control on soil organic matter decomposition in a thawing permafrost peatland

Peatlands are climate critical carbon (C) reservoirs that could become a C source under continued warming. A strong relationship between plant tissue chemistry and the soil organic matter (SOM) that fuels C gas emissions is inferred, but rarely examined at the molecular level. Here we compared Fourier transform infrared (FT-IR) spectroscopy measurements of solid phase functionalities in plants and SOM to ultra-high-resolution mass spectrometric analyses of plant and SOM water extracts across a palsa-bog-fen thaw and moisture gradient in an Arctic peatland. From these analyses we calculated the C oxidation state (NOSC), a measure which can be used to assess organic matter quality. Palsa plant extracts had the highest NOSC, indicating high quality, whereas extracts of Sphagnum, which dominated the bog, had the lowest NOSC. The percentage of plant compounds that are less bioavailable and accumulate in the peat, increases from palsa (25%) to fen (41%) to bog (47%), reflecting the pattern of percent Sphagnum cover. The pattern of NOSC in the plant extracts was consistent with the high number of consumed compounds in the palsa and low number of consumed compounds in the bog. However, in the FT-IR analysis of the solid phase bog peat, carbohydrate content was high implying high quality SOM. Here, we explain this discrepancy as the result of low solubilization of bog SOM facilitated by the low pH in the bog which makes the solid phase carbohydrates less available to microbial decomposition. Plant-associated condensed aromatics, tannins, and lignin-like compounds declined in the unsaturated palsa peat indicating decomposition, but lignin-like compounds accumulated in the bog and fen peat where decomposition was presumably inhibited by the anaerobic conditions. A molecular-level comparison of the aboveground C sources and peat SOM demonstrates that climate-associated vegetation shifts in peatlands are important controls on the mechanisms underlying changing C gas emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying uncertainty in aggregated climate change risk assessments

High-level assessments of climate change impacts aggregate multiple perils into a common framework. This requires incorporating multiple dimensions of uncertainty. Here we propose a methodology to transparently assess these uncertainties within the ‘Reasons for Concern’ framework, using extreme heat as a case study. We quantitatively discriminate multiple dimensions of uncertainty, including future vulnerability and exposure to changing climate hazards. High risks from extreme heat materialise after 1.5–2 °C and very high risks between 2–3.5 °C of warming. Risks emerge earlier if global assessments were based on national risk thresholds, underscoring the need for stringent mitigation to limit future extreme heat risks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Scale‐Dependent Influence of Permafrost on Riverbank Erosion Rates

Abstract Whether permafrost systematically alters the rate of riverbank erosion is a fundamental geomorphic question with significant importance to infrastructure, water quality, and biogeochemistry of high‐latitude watersheds. For over four decades, this question has remained unanswered due to a lack of data. Using remotely sensed imagery, we addressed this knowledge gap by quantifying riverbank erosion rates across the Arctic and subarctic. To compare these rates to non‐permafrost rivers, we assembled a global data set of published riverbank erosion rates. We found that erosion rates in rivers influenced by permafrost are on average nine times lower than non‐permafrost systems; erosion rate differences increase up to 40 times for the largest rivers. To test alternative hypotheses for the observed erosion rate difference, we examined differences in total water yield and erosional efficiency between these rivers and non‐permafrost rivers. Neither of these factors nor differences in river sediment loads provided compelling alternative explanations, leading us to conclude that permafrost limits riverbank erosion rates. This conclusion was supported by field investigations of rates and patterns of erosion along three rivers flowing through discontinuous permafrost in Alaska. Our results show that permafrost limits maximum bank erosion rates on rivers with stream powers greater than 900 Wm −1 . On smaller rivers, however, hydrology rather than thaw rate may be the dominant control on bank erosion. Our findings suggest that Arctic warming and hydrological changes should increase bank erosion rates on large rivers but may reduce rates on rivers with drainage areas less than a few thousand km 2 .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1992

Durability evaluation of photovoltaic blanket materials exposed on LDEF tray S1003

Several candidate protective coatings on Kapton and uncoated Kapton were exposed to the low Earth orbital (LEO) environment on the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) to determine if the coatings could be used to protect polymeric substrates from degradation in the LEO environment. The coatings that were evaluated were 700 A of aluminum oxide, 650 A of silicon dioxide, and 650 A of a 4 percent polytetrafluoroethylene-96 percent silicon dioxide mixed coating. All of the coatings evaluated were ion beam sputter deposited. These materials were exposed to a very low atomic oxygen fluence (4.8 x 10 exp 19 atoms/sq. cm) as a result of the experiment tray being located 98 degrees from the ram direction. As a result of the low atomic oxygen fluence, determination of a change in mass was not possible for any of the samples including the uncoated Kapton. There was no evidence of spalling of any of the coatings after the approximately 33,600 thermal cycles recorded for LDEF. The surface of the uncoated Kapton, however, did show evidence of grazing incidence texturing. There was a 7-8 percent increase in solar absorptance for the silicon dioxide and aluminum oxide coated Kapton and only a 4 percent increase for the mixed coating. It appears that the addition of a small amount of fluoropolymer may reduce the magnitude of absorptance increase due to environmental exposure. Thermal emittance did not change significantly for any of the exposed samples. Scanning electron microscopy revealed few micrometeoroid or debris impacts, but the impact sites found indicated that the extent of damage or cracking of the coating around the defect site did not extend beyond a factor of three of the impact crater diameter. This limiting of impact damage is of great significance for the durability of thin film coatings used for protection against the LEO environment.

Sharon K Rutledge↗
DOE OSTI2023

Shift in Peaks of PAH-Associated Health Risks From East Asia to South Asia and Africa in the Future

Lung cancer risk from exposure to ambient polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) is expected to change significantly by 2050 compared to 2008 due to changes in climate and emissions. Integrating a global atmospheric chemistry model, a lung cancer risk model, and plausible future emissions trajectories of PAHs, we assess how global PAHs and their associated lung cancer risk will likely change in the future. Benzo(a)pyrene (BaP) is used as an indicator of cancer risk from PAH mixtures. From 2008 to 2050, the population-weighted global average BaP concentrations under all RCPs consistently exceeded the WHO-recommended limits, primarily attributed to residential biofuel use. Peaks in PAH-associated incremental lifetime cancer risk shift from East Asia (4 × 10 –5 ) in 2008 to South Asia (mostly India, 2–4 × 10 –5 ) and Africa (1–2 × 10 –5 ) by 2050. In the developing regions of Africa and South Asia, PAH-associated lung cancer risk increased by 30–64% from 2008 to 2050, due to increasing residential energy demand in households for cooking, heating, and lighting, the continued use of traditional biomass use, increases in agricultural waste burning, and forest fires, accompanied by rapid population growth in these regions. Due to more stringent air quality policies in developed countries, their PAH lung cancer risk substantially decreased by ~80% from 2008 to 2050. Climate change is likely to have minor effects on PAH lung cancer risk compared to the impact of emissions. Future policies, therefore, need to consider efficient combustion technologies that reduce air pollutant emissions, including incomplete combustion products such as PAH.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Solar PV Curtailment in Changing Grid and Technological Contexts: Preprint

Solar photovoltaic (PV) systems generate electricity with no marginal costs or emissions. As a result, PV output is almost always prioritized over other fuel sources and delivered to the electric grid. At increasing levels of PV penetration situations arise where PV is curtailed, either because of local supply/demand imbalances or to maintain system flexibility. In 2018, we estimate that about 6.5 million MWh of PV output was curtailed in four key countries: Chile, China, Germany, and the United States. We find that PV curtailment peaks in the spring and fall, when PV output is relatively high but electricity demand is relatively low. Similar to the case of wind, some PV curtailment is attributable to limited transmission capacity connecting sparsely populated solar-heavy regions to load centers.Grid policies generally seek to minimize curtailment because it is viewed as an economic and environmental loss. However, we argue that changing grid and technological contexts warrant new thinking on PV curtailment. In the grid context, as grids integrate more PV and other renewable energy generation, seeking an optimal level of accepted curtailment becomes more efficient than preventing it. In the technological context, emerging technologies such as advanced inverters and low-cost battery storage are making PV systems more flexible. With flexible PV, grid operators can use withheld PV output to provide various non-generation grid services. This withheld PV output is a form of curtailment under prevailing definitions of the term. Hence, policies that aim to minimize curtailment may undercut the ability of grid operators to fully use the emerging capabilities of flexible PV systems. We argue that the changing grid and technological contexts require a re-examination of the curtailment paradigm. We argue that PV output that is withheld to provide grid services is fundamentally different from output that goes unused in response to system constraints. As a result, we propose a more exclusive definition of curtailment as unused PV output rather than the more expansive conventional definition as any reduction in system output from its technical potential. The terminological distinction is more than a question of semantics. Facilitating grid services by withholding PV output may increase the potential value of flexible PV systems to the grid. This shift in thinking may allow grid operators and policymakers to think in terms of PV curtailment management rather than minimization. Effective curtailment management may include policies that increase PV system dispatchability, alternative PV compensation schemes that decouple generator revenue from system output, and policies to increase grid flexibility.

Chile↗
DOE OSTI2020

Human-induced changes to the global ocean water masses and their time of emergence

The World Ocean is rapidly changing, with global and regional modification of temperature and salinity, resulting in widespread and irreversible impacts. While the most pronounced observed temperature and salinity changes are located in the upper ocean, changes in water masses at depth have been identified and will probably strengthen in the future. In this study, using 11 climate models, we define when anthropogenic temperature and salinity changes are expected to emerge from natural variability in the ocean interior along density surfaces. The models predict that in 2020, 20–55% of the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian basins have an emergent anthropogenic signal; reaching 40–65% in 2050 and 55–80% in 2080. The well-ventilated Southern Ocean water masses emerge very rapidly, as early as the 1980–1990s, while the Northern Hemisphere water masses emerge in the 2010–2030s. Our results highlight the importance of maintaining and augmenting an ocean observing system capable of detecting and monitoring persistent anthropogenic changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sustainable Aviation Fuel Combustion, Soot, and Contrail Formation

The aviation industry stands at a crossroads, facing the dual challenge of meeting the growing global demand for air travel while mitigating its environmental impact. As concerns over climate change intensify, sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) have emerged as a promising solution to reduce the carbon footprint of air travel. The aviation sector has long been recognized as a contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, with carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) being a primary concern. SAFs, derived from renewable feedstocks such as biomass, waste oils, or synthetic processes, offer a promising avenue for reducing the net carbon emissions associated with aviation. While SAFs have shown potential in lowering CO 2 emissions, the combustion process introduces complexities related to soot particle formation and contrail generation that require comprehensive exploration. These aspects are pivotal not only for their environmental implications but also for their influence on atmospheric climate interactions. As the aviation industry increasingly embraces SAFs to meet sustainability goals, it is imperative to assess their combustion characteristics, unravel the mechanisms of soot formation, and scrutinize the factors influencing contrail development.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Ratcheting of climate pledges needed to limit peak global warming

We report the new and updated emission reduction pledges submitted by countries ahead of the Twenty-Sixth Conference of Parties represent a meaningful strengthening of global ambition compared to the 2015 Paris pledges. Yet, limiting global warming below 1.5 °C this century will require countries to ratchet ambition for 2030 and beyond. Here, we explore a suite of emissions pathways to show that ratcheting near-term ambition through 2030 will be crucial to limiting peak temperature changes. Delaying ratcheting ambition to beyond 2030 could still deliver end-of-century temperature change of less than 1.5 °C but would result in higher temperature overshoot over many decades with the potential for adverse consequences. Ratcheting near-term ambition would also deliver benefits from enhanced non-CO2 mitigation and facilitate faster transitions to net-zero emissions systems in major economies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗