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At least 1,297 records · Page 72

MAG4 Versus Alternative Techniques for Forecasting Active-Region Flare Productivity

MAG4 (Magnetogram Forecast), developed originally for NASA/SRAG (Space Radiation Analysis Group), is an automated program that analyzes magnetograms from the HMI (Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager) instrument on NASA SDO (Solar Dynamics Observatory), and automatically converts the rate (or probability) of major flares (M- and X-class), Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), and Solar Energetic Particle Events. MAG4 does not forecast that a flare will occur at a particular time in the next 24 or 48 hours; rather the probability of one occurring.

Falconer, David A.↗

A Science-Focused Artificial Intelligence (AI) Responding in Real-Time to New Information: Capability Demonstration for Ocean World Missions

Introduction: Artificial intelligence (AI) has long been considered a potential mechanism to explore increasingly challenging environments, including those with extreme temperatures and pressures, limited communication capabilities, or those with demanding terrain. We posit that missions in extreme environments could deploy an onboard AI focused on science observations and goals in order to augment a traditional concept(s) of operations (ConOps). An onboard AI capability could perform functions such as data analysis in order to make high-level decisions, including prioritized data transmission for analysis by ground-based teams or autonomously-guided follow-on analyses that maximize science return. Such a capability would empower missions to respond to scientific data of interest in real-time; a mission could make observations and perform a preliminary analysis to alert ground-based scientists to an observation of interest, enabling an informed, rapid response from Earth-based teams. Enceladus Case Study for Onboard AI: We are developing an onboard AI capability for real-time telemetry response that formulates and carries-out informed decisions in service to established mission goals, enabling increased science return of a mission. We focus our AI development for use on a constellation of SmallSats orbiting Enceladus. Our Enceladus case study tests autonomous decision-making capabilities in scenarios with complex orbital dynamics, plume ejecta, extreme cold environments, power restrictions, and a requirement to maximize science return for a potential positive detection of life, while critically evaluating the potential for false positives. Telemetry includes simulated scientific data, spacecraft onboard operational data (e.g., position, velocity, and rotation), and engineering hardware performance data. Enceladus SmallSat Constellation. Our constellation includes eight SmallSat spacecraft in an 8:35 resonant orbit-based formation, leveraging Saturn’s gravitational forces to maintain stable orbits with global coverage around Enceladus. To our knowledge, we simulate the first stable configuration of multiple spacecraft in closed orbits around Enceladus, using a full ephemeris force model (Russell and Lara, 2009). Each spacecraft’s orbit will precess, causing an eastward ground track shift (from an orbiter’s perspective) of each spacecraft for each orbit. However, all spacecraft return to their original positions relative to Enceladus after eight Enceladus revolutions around Saturn. We model communication pathways between SmallSats to understand how information would need to be transmitted across the constellation to enable AI-driven decision-making and resource allocation across the fleet. Capability Demonstration. Our simulated capability demonstration inputs position, velocity, and rotation telemetry from our Enceladus-focused constellation simulations, and mass spectrometry data collected from abiotic and biotic laboratory-analog ocean world experiments (Theiling et al., 2018; Theiling, 2021; Da Poian et al., 2023). Data from these experiments are used to simulate MS measurements and different scenarios of science observations for onboard analysis performed on each of the eight spacecraft. For these demonstrations, we integrate 24 machine learning (ML) algorithms into an onboard intelligence as a ‘knowledge base’, including algorithms evaluating data quality and those predicting (with % confidence) gas composition, ocean aqueous chemistry, and whether the sample was influenced by microbial life. The onboard AI capability is designed to use the knowledge base to come to a consensus-based decision in the interpretation of the observed data in order to request additional action outside of a pre-defined ConOps. Requested actions could include e.g., prioritized downlink to Earth (for analysis by ground-based teams) or follow-on analyses performed across the constellation. The spacecraft’s intelligent onboard planner must then determine whether sufficient resources (e.g., time, power, etc.) are available and weigh the request with mission priorities. In our simulation, the constellation is able to identify potential biosignatures using onboard ML algorithms, evaluate the confidence of that prediction, and perform follow-on analyses across the fleet to confirm the detection, in order to best prepare a transmission of these data to Earth-based teams.

astrobiology↗

CARES/LIFE Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures Life Prediction Program

This manual describes the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures Life Prediction (CARES/LIFE) computer program. The program calculates the time-dependent reliability of monolithic ceramic components subjected to thermomechanical and/or proof test loading. CARES/LIFE is an extension of the CARES (Ceramic Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures) computer program. The program uses results from MSC/NASTRAN, ABAQUS, and ANSYS finite element analysis programs to evaluate component reliability due to inherent surface and/or volume type flaws. CARES/LIFE accounts for the phenomenon of subcritical crack growth (SCG) by utilizing the power law, Paris law, or Walker law. The two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function is used to characterize the variation in component strength. The effects of multiaxial stresses are modeled by using either the principle of independent action (PIA), the Weibull normal stress averaging method (NSA), or the Batdorf theory. Inert strength and fatigue parameters are estimated from rupture strength data of naturally flawed specimens loaded in static, dynamic, or cyclic fatigue. The probabilistic time-dependent theories used in CARES/LIFE, along with the input and output for CARES/LIFE, are described. Example problems to demonstrate various features of the program are also included.

Nemeth, Noel N.↗

The structure and dynamics of the heliospheric current sheet

It has been suggested that the sector structure observed in the interplanetary magnetic field may be interpreted in terms of a warped equatorial current sheet in the heliosphere. The reported study seeks to investigate this suggestion and to provide a clear picture of the topology of the current sheet. An analysis is presented of the magnetic field data obtained by the Pioneer 10 and 11 spacecraft during the time from 1972 to 1976, taking into account a range of heliocentric distances from 1 to 8.5 AU. The single most convincing observation in support of the warped current sheet hypothesis is the almost complete disappearance of the sector structure in the Pioneer 11 data when the spacecraft reaches a heliographic latitude of 16 deg in 1976. The observation suggests that the spacecraft was consistently above the current sheet for a period of several months.

Thomas, B. T.↗

Non-linear dynamic analysis of geared systems

Under driving conditions, a typical geared system may be subjected to large dynamic loads. Also, the vibration level of the geared system is directly related to the noise radiated from the gear box. The steady state dynamic behavior of the system is examined in order to design reliable and quiet transmissions. The scope is limited to a system containing a spur gear pair with backlash and periodically time varying mesh stiffness, and rolling element bearings with clearance type nonlinearities. The internal static transmission error at the gear mesh, which is of importance from high frequency noise and vibration control view point, is considered in the formulation in sinusoidal or periodic form. A dynamic finite element model of the linear time invariant (LTI) system is developed. Effects of several system parameters, such as torsional and transverse flexibilities of the shafts and prime mover/load inertias, on free and forced vibration characteristics are investigated. Several reduced order LTI models are developed and validated by comparing their eigen solutions with the finite element model results. Using the reduced order formulations, a three degree of freedom dynamic model is developed which includes nonlinearities associated with radical clearances in the radial rolling element bearings, backlash between a spur gear pair and periodically varying gear mesh stiffness. As a limiting case, a single degree of freedom model of the spur gear pair with backlash is considered and mathematical conditions for tooth separation and back collision are defined. Both digital simulation technique and analytical models such as method of harmonic balance and the method of multiple scales were used to develop the steady state frequency response characteristics for various nonlinear and/or time varying cases.

Singh, Rajendra↗

Reducing False Positives in Runtime Analysis of Deadlocks

This paper presents an improvement of a standard algorithm for detecting dead-lock potentials in multi-threaded programs, in that it reduces the number of false positives. The standard algorithm works as follows. The multi-threaded program under observation is executed, while lock and unlock events are observed. A graph of locks is built, with edges between locks symbolizing locking orders. Any cycle in the graph signifies a potential for a deadlock. The typical standard example is the group of dining philosophers sharing forks. The algorithm is interesting because it can catch deadlock potentials even though no deadlocks occur in the examined trace, and at the same time it scales very well in contrast t o more formal approaches to deadlock detection. The algorithm, however, can yield false positives (as well as false negatives). The extension of the algorithm described in this paper reduces the amount of false positives for three particular cases: when a gate lock protects a cycle, when a single thread introduces a cycle, and when the code segments in different threads that cause the cycle can actually not execute in parallel. The paper formalizes a theory for dynamic deadlock detection and compares it to model checking and static analysis techniques. It furthermore describes an implementation for analyzing Java programs and its application to two case studies: a planetary rover and a space craft altitude control system.

Bensalem, Saddek↗

Combined Weekly Coordinate Solutions from SLR and DORIS

In International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF) 2005 and ITRF2008, the approach for the construction of solutions by the IERS has been for individual analysis centers of each technique to process geodetic tracking data, and for each technique to develop a solution (or contribution) that is integrated into the final ITRF solution by careful combination of the technique solutions. The connections between the geodetic networks are realized by the application of local ties. In an alternate approach, we may assure processing homogeneity by creating normal equations for different techniques with the same orbit determination software, using identically derived algorithms. Another derivative of this approach is to realize the ties between the techniques using satellites tracked with multiple techniques; in effect tieing the networks together using satellite dynamics. In this solution, we develop a time series and a set of cumulative solutions from Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) & Doppler Orbitography and Radio-positioning Integrated by Satellite (DORIS) based on homogeneous processing with the NASA GEODYN precise orbit determination suite of programs, where we jointly combine weekly the SLR data to Lageos1, Lageos2, Starlette, and Stella with the DORIS data from SPOT2-SPOT5, as well as satellites that utilize both techniques (TOPEX/Poseidon, Envisat, Jason-2). We discuss the modeling that is applied including upgrades implemented since the submission of the GSC ITRF2008 contributions for IDS. Firstly, we compare the SLR-only solutions comprising four geodetic satellites with the standard approach of utilizing only Lageos1 & Lageos2. Secondly, we evaluate the impact on the DORIS coordinates of the joint analysis with the SLR data.

Lemoine, F.↗

NASA's NMME-Based S2S Hydrologic Forecast System for Food Insecurity Early Warning in Southern Africa

In situ hydrologic monitoring over regions most susceptible to food insecurity can be a challenge in current times due to various socio-economic and political issues in combination with environmental factors such as ongoing famine or drought. Hydrologic monitoring and initializing forecasts based on remotely sensed and analyzed data can contribute significantly to early warning in such regions. Routine hydrologic forecasts, as provided by NASA’s Hydrologic Forecasting and Analysis System (NHyFAS), are a recent addition to early warning systems. A custom instance of NHyFAS, termed FLDAS-Forecast, is used by FEWS NET’s Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS). The FLDAS-Forecast’s dynamic forecasting component was originally set up with Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) forecast inputs and has been recently expanded with precipitation forecast forcing from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME). This paper describes the improvements in seasonal hydrologic forecasts produced with this updated system. Evaluations in this study focus on soil moisture across southern Africa’s growing season. Soil moisture forecasts are benchmarked and evaluated relative to climatology-based forecasts and historic runs, which are driven by observation-based meteorological forcing fields, and they are verified with remotely sensed observations of soil moisture and vegetation. Through multiple deterministic and probabilistic skill assessments, we show that using the larger ensemble of NMME precipitation inputs in the forecast system results in higher quality hydrologic forecasts than are allowed by climatology- or GEOS-only-based forecasts. Further, the near-real-time NMME-based rootzone soil moisture forecasts were able to correctly predict developing drought conditions over southern Africa through late 2019 and into early 2020.

Hydrologic forecasts↗

Characterization of the relationship of the cure cycle chemistry to cure cycle processing properties

Dynamic dielectric analysis (DDA) is used to study curing polymer systems and thermoplastics. Measurements are made over a frequency range of six decades. This wide range of frequencies increases the amount of information which can be obtained. The data is analyzed in terms of the frequency dependence of the complex permittivity epsilon sup *, specific conductivity sigma (ohm/cm) and the relaxation time tau, parameters which are characteristic of the cure state of the material and independent of the size of the sample.

Kranbuehl, D. E.↗

Absolute Stability And Hyperstability In Hilbert Space

Theorems on stabilities of feedback control systems proved. Paper presents recent developments regarding theorems of absolute stability and hyperstability of feedforward-and-feedback control system. Theorems applied in analysis of nonlinear, adaptive, and robust control. Extended to provide sufficient conditions for stability in system including nonlinear feedback subsystem and linear time-invariant (LTI) feedforward subsystem, state space of which is Hilbert space, and input and output spaces having finite numbers of dimensions. (In case of absolute stability, feedback subsystem memoryless and possibly time varying. For hyperstability, feedback system dynamical system.)

Wen, John Ting-Yung↗

The art of spacecraft design: A multidisciplinary challenge

Actual design turn-around time has become shorter due to the use of optimization techniques which have been introduced into the design process. It seems that what, how and when to use these optimization techniques may be the key factor for future aircraft engineering operations. Another important aspect of this technique is that complex physical phenomena can be modeled by a simple mathematical equation. The new powerful multilevel methodology reduces time-consuming analysis significantly while maintaining the coupling effects. This simultaneous analysis method stems from the implicit function theorem and system sensitivity derivatives of input variables. Use of the Taylor's series expansion and finite differencing technique for sensitivity derivatives in each discipline makes this approach unique for screening dominant variables from nondominant variables. In this study, the current Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) aerodynamic and sensitivity derivative/optimization techniques are applied for a simple cone-type forebody of a high-speed vehicle configuration to understand basic aerodynamic/structure interaction in a hypersonic flight condition.

Abdi, F.↗

The development of an autonomous rendezvous and docking simulation using rapid integration and prototyping technology

A generic planar 3 degree of freedom simulation was developed that supports hardware in the loop simulations, guidance and control analysis, and can directly generate flight software. This simulation was developed in a small amount of time utilizing rapid prototyping techniques. The approach taken to develop this simulation tool, the benefits seen using this approach to development, and on-going efforts to improve and extend this capability are described. The simulation is composed of 3 major elements: (1) Docker dynamics model, (2) Dockee dynamics model, and (3) Docker Control System. The docker and dockee models are based on simple planar orbital dynamics equations using a spherical earth gravity model. The docker control system is based on a phase plane approach to error correction.

Shackelford, John H.↗

Quantification of Gear Tooth Damage by Optimal Tracking of Vibration Signatures

This paper presents a technique for quantifying the wear or damage of gear teeth in a transmission system. The procedure developed in this study can be applied as a part of either an onboard machine health-monitoring system or a health diagnostic system used during regular maintenance. As the developed methodology is based on analysis of gearbox vibration under normal operating conditions, no shutdown or special modification of operating parameters is required during the diagnostic process. The process of quantifying the wear or damage of gear teeth requires a set of measured vibration data and a model of the gear mesh dynamics. An optimization problem is formulated to determine the profile of a time-varying mesh stiffness parameter for which the model output approximates the measured data. The resulting stiffness profile is then related to the level of gear tooth wear or damage. The procedure was applied to a data set generated artificially and to another obtained experimentally from a spiral bevel gear test rig. The results demonstrate the utility of the procedure as part of an overall health-monitoring system.

Choy, F. K.↗

Structural dynamic model obtained from flight use with piloted simulation and handling qualities analysis

The ability to use flight data to determine an aircraft model with structural dynamic effects suitable for piloted simulation. and handling qualities analysis has been developed. This technique was demonstrated using SR-71 flight test data. For the SR-71 aircraft, the most significant structural response is the longitudinal first-bending mode. This mode was modeled as a second-order system, and the other higher order modes were modeled as a time delay. The distribution of the modal response at various fuselage locations was developed using a uniform beam solution, which can be calibrated using flight data. This approach was compared to the mode shape obtained from the ground vibration test, and the general form of the uniform beam solution was found to be a good representation of the mode shape in the areas of interest. To calibrate the solution, pitch-rate and normal-acceleration instrumentation is required for at least two locations. With the resulting structural model incorporated into the simulation, a good representation of the flight characteristics was provided for handling qualities analysis and piloted simulation.

Powers, Bruce G.↗

Investigation of Alert Zone and Display Concepts for Free Flight

To better understand the potential benefits and drawbacks of utilizing a probability-based method, a number of alternative approaches to the collision avoidance problem were examined and summarized in the paper "Survey of Conflict Detection and Resolution Modeling Methods" which was presented in August 1997 at the AIAA Guidance, Navigation, and Control Conference. The paper provides a summary and comparative evaluation of the many different approaches that have been used in the past to perform conflict analysis. Each method is categorized in its dynamic modeling approach and method of handling conflict detection and conflict resolution. For example, one category included the extrapolation method used to predict future trajectories of which 3 were defined: nominal, probabilistic, and worst-case. Another category listed the metrics and parameters used by each method to make conflict decisions (i.e. estimated time to closest point of approach, miss distance, current separation, expected maneuvering cost, probability of conflict). Other useful information such as the ability to handle multi-aircraft conflicts and cooperative and non-cooperative maneuvering is also included.

Yang, Lee C.↗

The Effect of the Density Ratio on the Nonlinear Dynamics of the Unstable Fluid Interface

Here we report multiple harmonic theoretical solutions for a complete system of conservation laws, which describe the large-scale coherent dynamics in RTI and RMI for fluids with a finite density ratio in the general three-dimensional case. The analysis yields new properties of the bubble front dynamics. In either RTI or RMI, the obtained dependencies of the bubble velocity and curvature on the density ratio differ qualitatively and quantitatively from those suggested by the models of Sharp (1984), Oron et al. (2001), and Goncharov (2002). We show explicitly that these models violate the conservation laws. For the first time, our theory reveals an important qualitative distinction between the dynamics of the RT and RM bubbles.

Abarzhi, S. I.↗

Free Body Dynamics of a Spinning Cylinder with Planar Restraint-(a.k.a. Barrel of Fun)

The dynamic motion of a cylinder is analyzed based on rotation about its center of mass and is restrained by a plane normal to the axis passing through its center of mass at an angle. The first part of this work presented an analysis of the stability of the motion. In the current report, the governing equations are numerically integrated in time and the steady state is obtained as a limit of the transient numerical solution. The calculated data are compared with observed behaviors.

Moraru, Laurentiu↗

Computational Study of NASA's Quadrotor Urban Air Taxi Concept

High-fidelity computational fluid dynamics simulations have been carried out in order to analyze NASA's quadrotor urban air taxi concept for urban air mobility, also know as on-demand mobility applications. High-order accurate schemes, dual-time stepping, and the delayed detached-eddy simulation model have been employed. The ow solver has been loosely coupled with a rotorcraft comprehensive analysis code. The vehicle simulated is a six-passenger quadrotor for air taxi operations. A study of power reduction as a function of the rear-rotor to front-rotors vertical separation has been performed, for a quad-rotor without the airframe, in cruise flight conditions. Then, the quadrotor without the airframe has been simulated in hover. The airloads and wake geometries are analyzed. To finish the study the complete quadrotor vehicle is presented. NASA's quadrotor air taxi concept is one of the many concepts being developed by NASA in support of aircraft development for vertical take-o and landing air taxi operations.

Ventura Diaz, Patricia↗