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At least 1,297 records · Page 72

Strong Lensing Parameter Estimation on Ground-Based Imaging Data Using Simulation-Based Inference

Current ground-based cosmological surveys, such as the Dark Energy Survey (DES), are predicted to discover thousands of galaxy-scale strong lenses, while future surveys, such as the Vera Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will increase that number by 1-2 orders of magnitude. The large number of strong lenses discoverable in future surveys will make strong lensing a highly competitive and complementary cosmic probe. To leverage the increased statistical power of the lenses that will be discovered through upcoming surveys, automated lens analysis techniques are necessary. We present two Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) approaches for lens parameter estimation of galaxy-galaxy lenses. We demonstrate the successful application of Neural Posterior Estimation (NPE) to automate the inference of a 12-parameter lens mass model for DES-like ground-based imaging data. We compare our NPE constraints to a Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) and find that it outperforms the BNN, producing posterior distributions that are for the most part both more accurate and more precise; in particular, several source-light model parameters are systematically biased in the BNN implementation.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Long range transport of fine grained sediments on Mars: Atmospheric dust loading, as inferred from Viking Lander imaging data

During the first Viking year, two global dust storms occurred and they contributed about 90% of the dust suspended in the Martian atmosphere on a global average, over the course of this year. The remainder was due to the cumulative effect of local dust storms. When globally distributed, the amount of suspended dust introduced into the atmosphere this Martian year was about 5x10(-3) g/sq cm. This mass loading was derived from the incremental optical depths measured over this year and estimates of the mean size of the dust particles (2.5 microns). During the second Martian year, global dust storms were far more muted than during the first year. No near perihelion dust storm occurred, and a somewhat weaker dust storm may have occurred near the start of the spring season in the Southern Hemisphere, at about the same time that the first global dust storm of the first year occurred. Thus, the dust loading derived for the first Martian year may be somewhat higher than the average over many Martian years, a conclusion that appears to be supported by preliminary studies of Martian years beyond the second Viking year on Mars.

Pollack, J. B.↗

Effects of mass motions on solar emission measures inferred from transition-region emission lines

Extreme ultraviolet emission line intensities predicted by a numerical model which includes nonequilibrium ionization balance are used as input 'observational' intensities to calculate volume emission measures following a standard method which assumes ionization equilibrium. These 'observational' emission measures are then compared with the actual emission measure distribution in the atmospheric model. For static equilibrium models, the two sets of emission measures are in good agreement. When mass motions are present, the emission measures calculated from the line intensities differ significantly from the actual values.

Mariska, J. T.↗

Isolation Effects on the Moon: High Topographic Slope Observations from the LRO and LOLA Instruments

The extremely low temperatures in the Moon's polar permanent shadow regions (PSR) has long been considered a unique factor necessary for entrapping volatile Hydrogen (H). However, recent discoveries indicate some H concentrations lie outside PSR, suggesting other geophysical factors may also influence H distributions. In this study we consider insolation and its resulting thermal effects as a loss/redistribution process influencing the Moon's near-surface < 1m volatile H budget. To isolate regional (5deg latitude band) insolation effects we correlate two data sets collected from the ongoing, 1.5 year long mapping mission of the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO). Epithermal neutron mapping data from the Lunar Exploration Neutron Detector (LEND) is registered and analyzed in the context of slope derivations from Lunar topography maps produced by the Lunar Observing Laser Altimeter (LOLA). Lunar epithermal neutrons are inferred to be direct geochemical evidence for near-surface H due to the correlated suppression of surface leakage fluxes of epithermal neutrons with increased H concentration. Regional suppressions of neutrons seen in LEND maps are considered localized evidence of H concentration increase in the upper 1 m of the Lunar surface. To quantify spatially localized insolation effects, LEND data are averaged from sparsely distributed pixels, classed as a function of the LOLA slope derivations.

McClanahan, T. P.↗

Diagnosing plasma magnetization in inertial confinement fusion implosions using secondary deuterium-tritium reactions

Diagnosing plasma magnetization in inertial confinement fusion implosions is important for understanding how magnetic fields affect implosion dynamics and to assess plasma conditions in magnetized implosion experiments. Secondary deuterium–tritium (DT) reactions provide two diagnostic signatures to infer neutron-averaged magnetization. Magnetically confining fusion tritons from deuterium–deuterium (DD) reactions in the hot spot increases their path lengths and energy loss, leading to an increase in the secondary DT reaction yield. In addition, the distribution of magnetically confined DD-triton is anisotropic, and this drives anisotropy in the secondary DT neutron spectra along different lines of sight. Implosion parameter space as well as sensitivity to the applied B-field, fuel ρR, temperature, and hot-spot shape will be examined using Monte Carlo and 2D radiation-magnetohydrodynamic simulations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Gauge R & R studies for angular measurements

Angular measurements lie on the circumference of a circle and have different characteristics than standard scalar measurements. For applications involving angular data, treating the measured values as scalars can lead to misinterpretation of results if its wrap-around nature is not taken into account. In this article, we propose a variance components wrapped normal model for angular measurements that is analogous to the standard normal model for continuous measurements. This model allows decomposition of contributions to the overall variance to be separated and compared to understand the drivers of the spread of the data. In this work, we analyze gauge R & R study data using Bayesian methods and illustrate the use of this wrapped normal model with simulated and real data. We also performed a small simulation study in considering the design of gauge R & R studies with angular measurements.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Synthesis of observed and simulated rain microphysics to inform a new Bayesian statistical framework for microphysical parameterization in climate models (Final Scientific Report)

This project aimed to investigate a new approach to bulk microphysics schemes. We identified the need to move beyond the fixed structural assumptions and approximation of existing schemes. For example, most schemes assume some functional form for the rain drop size distribution (e.g. a gamma or exponential distribution). Most schemes then evolve some number of statistical moments of that distribution via various processes, such as evaporation, sedimentation, collision-coalescence, and collisional breakup. These microphysical processes, in turn, are typically some fixed functional form derived from either some other (more detailed) model, or using some single-particle rates that are then integrated over the size distribution. While these process rate functions may have some free parameters to adjust, in other cases doing so is impossible (e.g. when the process rates are analytical or piecewise solutions to some target function). Our goal was to build and test a scheme that assumed no size distribution form, and used a series of power laws as the basis for the process rates. Moments of the size distribution would be predicted, but no underlying size distribution would be specified. Any number or choice of size distribution moments could be used, and any number of power laws could be employed to model the process rates. Thus, our approach is flexible, and can seamlessly scale across levels of complexity, as demanded by the data. Bayesian inference then would provide the formalism to estimate the model parameters and structure, allowing for robust uncertainty quantification. We proposed testing this framework in idealized simulations using bin microphysical schemes as a data source. We also proposed using real data to inform our microphysics scheme, and also that we would integrate our scheme into WRF.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Errors induced in the measurement and azimuth directions of morphological features imaged on oblique Lunar Orbiter photographs

Many quantitative lunar studies, e.g., the morphology and dimensions of craters, crater density and distribution, have been performed using oblique Lunar Orbiter photographs. If the inherent change in scale and azimuth direction of features imaged on these photographs are not corrected, the measurement can be in considerable error and the resulting statistical inferences may be invalid. The magnitude of this error is dependent upon: the depression angle of the camera, the flight height of the spacecraft, the focal length of the camera, and the position and orientation of the object on the ground. The errors introduced by using unrectified oblique photographs as though they were vertical photographs are examined for several Lunar Orbiter high resolution NASA LRC Enhancement photographic prints taken at various depression angles.

Siegal, B. S.↗

A knowledge based software engineering environment testbed

The Carnegie Group Incorporated and Boeing Computer Services Company are developing a testbed which will provide a framework for integrating conventional software engineering tools with Artifical Intelligence (AI) tools to promote automation and productivity. The emphasis is on the transfer of AI technology to the software development process. Experiments relate to AI issues such as scaling up, inference, and knowledge representation. In its first year, the project has created a model of software development by representing software activities; developed a module representation formalism to specify the behavior and structure of software objects; integrated the model with the formalism to identify shared representation and inheritance mechanisms; demonstrated object programming by writing procedures and applying them to software objects; used data-directed and goal-directed reasoning to, respectively, infer the cause of bugs and evaluate the appropriateness of a configuration; and demonstrated knowledge-based graphics. Future plans include introduction of knowledge-based systems for rapid prototyping or rescheduling; natural language interfaces; blackboard architecture; and distributed processing

Gill, C.↗

Concentrated mass effects on the flutter of a composite advanced turboprop model

The effects on bending-torsion flutter due to the addition of a concentrated mass to an advanced turboprop model blade with rigid hub are studied. Specifically the effects of the magnitude and location of added mass on the natural frequencies, mode shapes, critical interblade phase angle, and flutter Mach number are analytically investigated. The flutter of a propfan model is shown to be sensitive to the change in mass distribution. Static unbalance effects, like those for fixed wings, were shown to occur as the concentrated mass was moved from the leading edge to the trailing edge with the exception of one mass location. Mass balancing is also inferred to be a feasible method for increasing the flutter speed.

Ramsey, J. K.↗

Emission-line variability and the broad-line region of quasi-stellar objects. I - Time scales and photon densities

Spectroscopic data for five low-redshift QSOs taken over several years are presented as evidence for emission-line variability in QSOs. The broad hydrogen emission lines in the QSOs 0026 + 129, 1202 + 281, 1612 + 261, and 2141 + 175 are found to vary in step with their underlying continua. Another QSO, 2135 - 147, shows an increase in the intensities of its hydrogen lines five years after the increase in its continuum level. The inferred upper limit to the size of the broad emission line region is smaller than 3 lt-yr, probably as small as 0.4 lt-yr for 0026 + 129, if the line-emitting region is spherically distributed. Such a small size implies a very high density of ionizing photons, of the order of 10 to the 10th/cu cm. A very high nucleon density must then be assumed in order to obtain a value of the ionization parameter consistent with current photoionization models.

Zheng, Wei↗

Global relationships between volcanic vents and fractures radial to large impact basins on Mars

The relation of volcanic vents on Mars to impact basins has been previously studied. It has been asserted that the concentric fractures around impact basins extend into the crust and might localize some features, including volcanoes. Herein, the possibility is assessed of radial fractures inferred to be associated with impact basins as an additional control on the location of volcanoes on Mars. Geologic mapping at 1:2 million scale enabled 250 central vents and fissure vents to be identified. Pattern of vent distribution superimposed on a globe show that most are located on three distinct circles. In addition, there are two more possible great circles which may be superimposed onto the Martian globe. These five Martian circles are briefly examined for their geological relationship to volcanoes.

Schneid, Byron D.↗

SAR calibration and principal component analysis

Principal components analysis of ideal, complex quadpolarized synthetic aperture data tells us how the information is encoded in the eigenstructure of the data from homogeneous, distributed targets. Comparison with real data indicates distortion of the correlation matrices by system effects. The implications for measurement of the terms in the true correlation matrix are displayed. These are related to how accurately we can make inferences about the products of principle components analysis.

Quegan, S.↗

Electric field soundings through thunderstorms

Twelve balloon soundings of the electric field in thunderstorms are reported. The maximum magnitude of E in the storms averaged 96 +/-28 kV/m, with the largest being 146 kV/m. The maximum was usually observed between vertically adjacent regions of opposite charge. Using a 1D approximation to Gauss' law, four to ten charge regions in the storms are inferred. The magnitude of the density in the charge regions varied between 0.2 and 13 nC/cu m. The vertical extent of the charge regions ranged from 130 to 2100 m. None of the present 12 storms had charge distributions that fit the long-accepted model of Simpson et al. (1937, 1941) of a lower positive charge, a main negative charge, and an upper positive charge. In addition to regions similar to the Simpson model, the present storms had screening layers at the upper and lower cloud boundaries and extra charge regions, usually in the lower part of the cloud.

Marshall, Thomas C.↗

Far-ultraviolet observations of the Crab Nebula using the Hopkins Ultraviolet Telescope

Observations of the FUV spectrum of the central portion of the Crab Nebula SNR using the Hopkins Ultraviolet Telescope (HUT) aboard the Astro-1 space shuttle mission in December 1990 are reported. The C IV 1549-A emission line shows two resolved components representing the front and back sides of the shell expanding at roughly +/- 1100 km/s. The He II 1640-A emission line shows only a blueshifted component corresponding to the near side of the shell. The HUT observation is compared to optical emission-line imagery and to archival IUE observations. This comparison indicates that a distribution emission component, consisting of either a number of individually faint filaments or a diffuse component, produces the bulk of the emission seen by HUT. A grid of photoionization models for the Crab Nebula filaments is calculated to infer the range of limits. The differing UV line ratios observed for these components indicates that varying carbon and/or He abundances are present in the observed material.

Blair, William P.↗

Middle- and low-latitude emissions from energetic neutral atom precipitation seen from ATLAS 1 under quiet magnetic conditions

During the ATLAS 1 mission spectral observations were made at middle and low latitudes of features expected from the precipitation of energetic neutral atoms. The Imaging Spectrometric Observatory was used at night in the UV and visible with maximum gain. The tangent ray heights of the look directions ranged from near 100 km to near 200 km, and the geomagnetic conditions were quiet during the observations, which were made March 28 to April 3, 1992. The N2(+) 1N 391.4-nm and O I 130.4 and 135.6-nm emissions were observed at all latitudes, with lower emission rates at lower magnetic dip latitudes, except that enhancements in the O I lines were seen within 30 deg of the dip equator to radiative recombination of ionospheric plasma. The latitude profile observed for the N2(+) 1N emission did not show an equatorial or midlatitude peak. This implies that the source of energetic neutrals is more consistent with prompt charge exchange loss of freshly injected trapped ions with relatively low mirror heights (i.e., ions on higher L shells with equatorial pitch angle distributions nearly isotropic to the loss cone) than loss of highly eroded populations of particles with high mirror heights (i.e., ions on lower L shells with pancake equatorial pitch angle distributions). The N2(+) 1N emission rates have been compared with models of atmospheric emission due to fluxes of O/O(+) and H/H(+) in the thermosphere, as produced by energetic neutral oxygen or hydrogen atom precipitation. Energy deposition rates are inferred.

Tinsley, B. A.↗

Reconstruction of the 1997/1998 El Nino from TOPEX/POSEIDON and TOGA/TAO Data Using a Massively Parallel Pacific-Ocean Model and Ensemble Kalman Filter

Two massively parallel data assimilation systems in which the model forecast-error covariances are estimated from the distribution of an ensemble of model integrations are applied to the assimilation of 97-98 TOPEX/POSEIDON altimetry and TOGA/TAO temperature data into a Pacific basin version the NASA Seasonal to Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP)ls quasi-isopycnal ocean general circulation model. in the first system, ensemble of model runs forced by an ensemble of atmospheric model simulations is used to calculate asymptotic error statistics. The data assimilation then occurs in the reduced phase space spanned by the corresponding leading empirical orthogonal functions. The second system is an ensemble Kalman filter in which new error statistics are computed during each assimilation cycle from the time-dependent ensemble distribution. The data assimilation experiments are conducted on NSIPP's 512-processor CRAY T3E. The two data assimilation systems are validated by withholding part of the data and quantifying the extent to which the withheld information can be inferred from the assimilation of the remaining data. The pros and cons of each system are discussed.

Keppenne, C. L.↗