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Modeling Photovoltaics Innovation and Deployment Dynamics

PV’s historically rapid cost reduction is exceptional among technologies. Further cost reductions could play a major role in increasing deployment in the future. To enable such cost reductions, new modeling frameworks are needed to understand the determinants of innovation in PV. In this project, we study the mechanisms driving PV module and system cost reductions, delving deeply into the specific technological innovations that have occurred in the past and the policies that encouraged them, and also opportunities for future cost reduction and widespread deployment. The project contributes new fundamental insight on the determinants of technological innovation by developing novel methods and insights that are generalizable and can therefore be applied to other technologies. The results will allow policy makers, engineers, and other stakeholders to better prioritize their efforts and investments in the future. The project is organized around four journal articles as described below. The first article [1] identifies ‘low-level’ (e.g. conversion efficiency improvement) and ‘high- level’ (e.g. R&D efforts) mechanisms of cost reduction in PV systems (Tasks 1-4). This work builds on a previous DOE grant, where we developed a framework for technological innovation leading to PV module cost reduction [2]. We advance a method to disentangle the contributions of physical (‘hardware’) and non-physical (‘soft technology’) changes. Our results uncover reasons behind the relatively slow evolution of soft technology and can inform new innovation approaches to these technologies. The second article [3] identifies specific engineering or institutional innovations that enabled the low-level mechanisms of cost reduction in PV module and balance-of-systems (BOS) (Tasks 5, 9, 10). We identify 85 innovations and connect them to the cost variables they affected. By developing an innovations typology, this study shows the differences between the types of innovations affecting PV modules and BOS components. Finally, by analyzing the industry origins of innovations, this study also finds that PV was well-positioned within an ecosystem of continuously advancing technologies. The third article [4] studies prospective cost reduction opportunities (Task 10). We explore how design approaches that emphasize standardization and automation, such as plug-and-play PV systems, can create cost reduction opportunities by reducing interactions and speeding up activities with high process costs. We show that this can lead to cost reduction in cost components with the most untapped opportunity for improvement such as installation labor, overhead, electrical BOS, and customer acquisition. The fourth article [5] analyzes how various policies supporting PV deployment and R&D contributed to PV’s cost improvement by enabling high-level mechanisms, specific innovations, and ultimately low-level mechanisms of cost reduction (Tasks 8, 13, 14). We investigate examples from different countries and connect these policies to quantifiable cost change mechanisms. Our study sheds light on the roles that different nations played over time, through a diverse set of policy approaches.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Simulated Impacts of Climate Change on Water Use and Yield of Irrigated Sugarcane in South Africa

Reliable predictions of climate change impacts on water use, irrigation requirements and yields of irrigated sugarcane in South Africa (a water-scarce country) are necessary to plan adaptation strategies. Although previous work has been done in this regard, methodologies and results vary considerably. The objectives were (1) to estimate likely impacts of climate change on sugarcane yields, water use and irrigation demand at three irrigated sugarcane production sites in South Africa (Malelane, Pongola and La Mercy) for current (1980-2010) and future (2070-2100) climate scenarios, using an approach based on the Agricultural Model Inter-comparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) protocols; and (2) to assess the suitability of this methodology for investigating climate change impacts on sugarcane production. Future climate datasets were generated using the Delta downscaling method and three Global Circulation Models (GCMs) assuming atmospheric CO2 concentration [CO2] of 734 ppm(A2 emissions scenario). Yield and water use were simulated using the DSSAT-Canegro v4.5 model. Irrigated cane yields are expected to increase at all three sites (between 11 and 14%), primarily due to increased interception of radiation as a result of accelerated canopy development. Evapotranspiration and irrigation requirements increased by 11% due to increased canopy cover and evaporative demand. Sucrose yields are expected to decline because of increased consumption of photo-assimilate for structural growth and maintenance respiration. Crop responses in canopy development and yield formation differed markedly between the crop cycles investigated. Possible agronomic implications of these results include reduced weed control costs due to shortened periods of partial canopy, a need for improved efficiency of irrigation to counter increased demands, and adjustments to ripening and harvest practices to counter decreased cane quality and optimize productivity. Although the Delta climate data downscaling method is considered robust, accurate and easily-understood, it does not change the future number of rain-days per month. The impacts of this and other climate data simplifications ought to be explored in future work. Shortcomings of the DSSAT-Canegro model include the simulated responses of phenological development, photosynthesis and respiration processes to high temperatures, and the disconnect between simulated biomass accumulation and expansive growth. Proposed methodology refinements should improve the reliability of predicted climate change impacts on sugarcane yield.

Climate change↗

WIS and WIGOS Metadata as the Foundation for a Sustainable Framework for Global Greenhouse Gas Watch Data Exchange

Metadata (data about data) is a critical component of data discovery, description, evaluation, documentation, and preservation. Developing and propagating metadata standards has been a longstanding area of activity in WMO and beyond. The WIS2 and WIGOS metadata models are being actively developed and maintained by dedicated task teams, established under the WMO Expert Team on Metadata. The metadata representations and vocabularies are governed by well-established processes within WMO. These standards are being used in a number of metadata/data exchange activities (e.g., WMO Information System 2.0 (WIS2), WIGOS (WMDR), Climate Data Management Systems (CMDS), etc.). It should also be noted that the application of the WIS2 and WIGOS standards fully support the WMO Unified Data Policy and open data policy as well as greatly enhance the value of observations by fostering data F.A.I.R.ness. Furthermore, the WMO metadata standards can serve as the foundation for a framework that will facilitate metadata mapping between the existing schemas used in well-established data centres, e.g., WMO WDCGG (World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases) and NOAA ObsPack (Observation Package Data Products) and to automate metadata exchange between data centres as well as with WMO. These activities will play a central role in integrating measurements sponsored by various member countries and organizations to provide a more comprehensive characterization of the temporal and spatial distribution of the greenhouse gases. At the same time, this metadata exchange can lead to member countries and partner organizations improving their current metadata collection process for data discoverability, interoperability, and (re)usability. This presentation will describe metadata activities in the context of WIS2 and WIGOS and how they apply to GGGW data integration via metadata mapping and exchange.

Gao Chen↗

Lithium-Ion Battery Supply Chain for E-Drive Vehicles in the United States: 2010–2020

Understanding the battery supply chain is particularly important for the strategic planning and development of a battery recycling infrastructure to secure critical materials supply and enable a circular economy. Argonne has been tracking plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) sales in the United States (U.S.) by make and model since December 2010, when the Chevrolet Volt and Nissan Leaf were first sold in the U.S. Building on detailed monthly sales data, this report summarizes the manufacturing and production locations of lithium-ion (Li-ion, or LIB) battery cells and packs by make and model for PEVs sold in the U.S. from 2010 to 2020. It also summarizes the annual and cumulative Li-ion battery capacity installed in hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) sold in the U.S. Overall, there are about 20 different battery cell and pack manufacturers, which are currently supplying about 20 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of batteries annually for the U.S. PEV market. Panasonic and LG Chem are the largest cell suppliers to the U.S. market. Beyond the U.S, South Korea and Japan are major countries supplying PEV batteries to the U.S. market.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

An ERCOT test system for market design studies

An open source test system is developed that permits the dynamic modeling of centrally-managed wholesale power markets operating over highvoltage transmission grids. In default mode, the test system models basic operations in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT): namely, centrally-managed day-ahead and real-time markets operating over successive days, with congestion handled by locational marginal pricing. These basic operational features characterize all seven U.S. energy regions organized as centrally-managed wholesale power markets. Modeled participants include dispatchable generators, load-serving entities, and non-dispatchable generation such as unrmed wind and solar power. Users can congure a broad variety of parameters to study basic market and grid features under alternative system conditions. Users can also easily extend the test system's Java/Python software classes to study modied or newly envisioned market and grid features. Finally, the test system is integrated with a high-level simulation framework that permits it to function as a software component within larger systems, such as multi-country systems or integrated transmission and distribution systems. Finally, detailed test cases with 8-bus and 200-bus transmission grids are reported to illustrate these test system capabilities.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Energy savings and life cycle cost analysis of advanced double skin facade system applied to old apartments in South Korea

South Korea is one of the most densely populated countries in the world, and the population density in urban areas is much higher among others. Apartments are the most common form of residential buildings due to their high population density. More than 60% of domestic residential buildings are apartments, with more than 10 million households. The high population density is a problem that has long plagued South Korea because more than 45% of apartments are old apartments that are more than 20 years old. Old apartment buildings have low thermal performance that results in lots of energy consumption. Balconies, which worked as a thermal buffer, are also being removed by residents to expand indoor space. According to the green remodeling project supported by the Korean government, the typical retrofitting method is replacing external windows with the high-efficiency window in old apartments in South Korea. Here, this paper proposes a retrofitting method using an extended double-skin façade (DSF) system that replaces exterior windows and acts as a thermal buffer. The simulation model is developed with the EnergyPlus simulation program to conduct energy performance analyses. The simulation model has been calibrated using actual experimental data collected between October 1, 2019, and January 15, 2020. Results show that the cooling, heating, and lighting energy can be reduced up to 44.1% by fully utilizing electric energy generated by solar PV panels integrated with the DSF system. The payback period is about 15 years based on the energy price provided by the utility company. Although the payback period is long, it has great potential of energy savings and CO 2 emission reductions. The DSF system should be considered as a way of renovation, considering other factors such as increased real estate values and energy cost increases in the future.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Vibrational metrics for the evaluation of internal conditions in a scaled nuclear dry storage cask

In many countries, permanent repositories for high burnup spent nuclear fuel assemblies have yet to be established. As a result, much of the spent fuel from nuclear reactors is contained within dry storage casks, with many being beyond their designed service life. The assessment of the internal structural integrity of these casks and the fuel assemblies contained therein is of critical importance for both extended storage and transport to permanent repositories. The large size, structural complexity, and inaccessibility of the interior of the casks make this task challenging. To address these difficulties, a 1:6 scaled model based closely on the design of a Transnuclear (TN-32) dry storage cask was fabricated to facilitate controlled studies of these structures in the laboratory. Vibrational spectroscopy was used to evaluate the state of the cargo and internal structures within the cask utilizing only measurements on the outer surface. Using modes identified through Finite Element modeling corresponding to those previously measured on a full-scale TN-32 cask, we report on the development of amplitude- and phase-based metrics that are sensitive to internal conditions in the lab cask. Steel rod bundles and steel shot were used as surrogates for intact and damaged fuel assemblies, and various internal configurations of these materials were investigated. Finally, the metrics were based on acquired spectra involving the (1, 2) global bending mode and the (2, 1) radial-with-shearing mode. The results show that the metrics are sensitive to the condition of a single assembly and have some ability to determine the locations of damaged and empty slots.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Application of Earth Observation Data for Improved Environmental and Disaster Monitoring in Central America

Since its establishment in 1991, the Central American Integration System (SICA, in Spanish) has served as a force for integrating the eight countries of Central America and the Dominican Republic, and in recent years, SICA’s General Secretariat and its various technical secretariats have focused on integrating Earth observations into various regional and national processes. In 2019, for instance, a joint statement was signed between SICA’s General Secretariat and NASA, toward strengthening the region’s use of Earth observations. SICA has also pursued cooperation with the Group on Earth Observations’ AmeriGEO regional initiative, the Japanese Aerospace Agency (JAXA), the United Nations Office of Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA), and the Copernicus program, among others. Just in the framework of the NASA-SICA Joint Statement, and towards the goal of strengthening the region’s use of Earth observations across sectors, a large number of training webinars has been conducted, particularly benefiting national institutions, non-governmental organizations, and universities. Additionally, targeted support has been provided in the areas of environmental monitoring and disaster management. From 2019 through 2021, for instance, a number of feasibility studies were implemented by NASA’s DEVELOP program in collaboration with SICA technical secretariats. In 2020, in response to devastating Hurricanes Eta and Iota, the SERVIR program also provided support for extending the HYDRAFloods algorithm which had been originally developed for the Mekong to Central America. Support is also being provided toward monitoring land cover change across the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor. In the framework of the “observing the Earth for the benefit of all” theme, this presentation will also focus on how Central America can serve as a case study for the development of Earth observation capacity, applicable to other regions of the world.

applied sciences↗

Early Transition and Use of VIIRS and GOES-R Products by NWS Forecast Offices

The Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on the NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP) satellite, part of the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS), and the ABI and GLM sensors scheduled for the GOES-R geostationary satellite will bring advanced observing capabilities to the operational weather community. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) project at Marshall Space Flight Center has been facilitating the use of real-time experimental and research satellite data by NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) for a number of years to demonstrate the planned capabilities of future sensors to address particular forecast challenges through improve situational awareness and short-term weather forecasts. For the NOAA GOES-R Proving Ground (PG) activity, SPoRT is developing and disseminating selected GOES-R proxy products to collaborating WFOs and National Centers. SPoRT developed the a pseudo-Geostationary Lightning Mapper product and helped in the transition of the Algorithm Working Group (AWG) Convective Initiation (CI) proxy product for the Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) Spring Experiment,. Along with its partner WFOs, SPoRT is evaluating MODIS/GOES Hybrid products, which brings ABI-like data sets from existing NASA instrumentation in front of the forecaster for everyday use. The Hybrid uses near real-time MODIS imagery to demonstrate future ABI capabilities, while utilizing standard GOES imagery to provide the temporal frequency of geostationary imagery expected by operational forecasters. In addition, SPoRT is collaborating with the GOES-R hydrology AWG to transition a baseline proxy product for rainfall rate / quantitative precipitation estimate (QPE) to the OCONUS regions. For VIIRS, SPoRT is demonstrating multispectral observing capabilities and the utility of low-light channels not previously available on operational weather satellites to address a variety of weather forecast challenges. This presentation will discuss the results of transitioning these products to collaborating WFOs throughout the country.

Fuell, Kevin K.↗

Bhutan Agriculture III: Monitoring Cropland Changes in Bhutan using Remote Sensing to Bolster Food Security and Support Crop Monitoring

The Bhutan Agriculture III team aimed to improve agricultural efficiency in Bhutan. Bhutan is a nation heavily reliant on agriculture, but it faces challenges such as geophysical limitations and lack of scientific agricultural practice. The team partnered with a primary end user, Bhutan’s Department of Agriculture (DoA), and with collaborators; the Bhutan Foundation, National Plant Protection Centre (NPPC), Agricultural Research Department Centre (ARDC), National Statistics Bureau (NSB), and the Ugyen Wangchuck Institute for Conservation and Environment Research (UWICER). Advised by NASA SERVIR, the team developed crop masks and monitored rice distribution from 2015 to 2022 utilizing Earth observations such as Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Landsat 9 OLI-2, Sentinel-1 C-Band Synthetic Aperture Radar (C-SAR), Sentinel-2 MultiSpectral Instrument (MSI) and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM). The team gathered 5,000 points from the five dzongkhags that yield the most rice in Bhutan (Paro, Punakha, Samtse, Sarpang and Wangue Phodrang) using Collect Earth Online (CEO). With the data collected, the team split the data into training and validation data on Google Earth Engine (GEE) for a random forest (RF) classifier for rice and non-rice classification. After running the data on the Random Forest (RF) model, the team got an accuracy score of 81.48%, a kappa score of 55.75% and an F1 score of 86.11%. This data supports better agricultural decision-making for the governing body of Bhutan, helps enhance farming efficiency and foster sustainable practices, assists in overcoming data inaccuracy and bolsters food security in the country.

Sonam Seldon Tshering↗

Lunabotics Mining Competition: Inspiration through Accomplishment

Space Mining for resources such as water ice, and regolith, which contain many elements in the form of metals, minerals, volatiles and other compounds, is a necessary step in Space Resource Utilization. One of the primary goals is to extract propellants from the regolith such as oxygen and hydrogen which could then be used for in-space transportation. In addition, the space mining system can be used for various construction tasks that can benefit human and robotic exploration as well as scientific investigations based on the exposed topography. The National Aeronautics & Space Administration (NASA) Lunabotics Mining Competition is a university-level competition designed to engage and retain students in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM). NASA will directly benefit from the competition by encouraging the development of innovative lunar excavation concepts from universities which may result in clever ideas and solutions which could be applied to an actual lunar excavation device or payload. The challenge is for students to design and build a remote controlled or autonomous excavator, called a lunabot, that can collect and deposit a minimum of 10 kilograms of lunar simulant within 15 minutes. The complexities of the challenge include the abrasive characteristics of the lunar simulant, the weight and size limitations of the lunabot, and the ability to control the lunabot from a remote control center or operate autonomously. This paper will present an update of the results and lessons learned during the first and second annual Lunabotics Mining Competitions held in May 2010 and May 2011. It will also preview the 2012 competition with a review of the revised rules. In 2010,22 United States (US) universities competed, and in May 2011 the competition was opened to international participation. In 2011, 36 teams actually competed from 26 USA states and 4 foreign countries (India, Bangladesh, Colombia and Canada). This combined total directly inspired an estimated 653 university students. In 2012 more students and the public will be engaged via internet broadcasting and social networking media. The various designs will be cataloged and categorized to provide information to future Lunabotics mining robot designers and competitors. It is also expected to be of value for actual future space missions, as knowledge is gained from testing many innovative prototypes in simulated lunar regolith.

Mueller, Robert P.↗

Multifunctional, Self-Healing Polyelectrolyte Gels for Long-Cycle-Life, High-Capacity Sulfur Cathodes in Li-S Batteries (FY2020 Final Report)

The project aims to develop polyelectrolyte gels consisting of partially crosslinked ionomer, interpenetrated with self-healing/polysulfide-trapping chains and swelled with a mixture of room temperature ionic liquid (RTIL) and lithium salt. To our knowledge, no other sulfur-based cathode design has combined self-healing behavior, polysulfide containment, and lithium dendrite suppression into a single design. We have demonstrated the benefits of multifunctional ionomer gel polyelectrolytes / gel cathodes with self-healing properties, as well as chemical modification of mesoporous carbons for S/C composite cathodes. Success of the proposed program of study would have wide ranging impact on the electric vehicle industry and society as a whole. A Li-S battery system with the capability of doubling lithium-ion energy density would enable the production of lighter, longer range electric vehicles at a cost that is affordable to the average U.S. household. The availability of such vehicles should lead to wide-ranging adoption over the coming years which, in combination with increased renewable electricity generation, will drastically decrease carbon emissions across the country and reduce U.S. dependency on fossil fuel sources.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Women as a Force Multiplier for Bringing Nuclear Forensic Capabilities to the International Stage

In 2009, the US Department of Energy National Nuclear Security Administration’s (NNSA’s) Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation Program initiated a new nuclear forensics outreach effort under its Confidence Building Measures Program. Little did they know that the timing could not have been better. This article focuses on the early years (2009–2015) of the NNSA’s international nuclear forensics outreach, specifically the efforts and experiences of the women who helped establish this program, building it from a fledgling, bilateral effort into an enduring technical capacity provider engaging with dozens of countries and multilateral organizations. At the onset of the program, nuclear forensics was an emerging priority within the US Government and receiving increased focus from international organizations through high-level diplomatic efforts such as the Nuclear Security Summit and Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism. Additionally, working-level initiatives were gaining traction through the International Atomic Energy Agency and the Nuclear Forensics International Technical Working Group. Over the next 6 years, a small team comprising a uniquely large number of women NNSA federal, contract, and national laboratory staff served as key leaders engaging with the international community to strengthen global technical nuclear forensics capacity and best practices. The program continues today under the Nuclear Smuggling Detection and Deterrence Program as Investigation Support. The experiences shared here detail a unique time period when the new technical discipline of nuclear forensics was beginning to mature and gain international traction. The authors have made every effort to remember history correctly and be as inclusive as possible. A wealth of training, guidance, and exercise documentation was developed in the 2009–2015 time frame, much of which still serves as the foundation for today’s even more extensive program and community of dedicated technical and diplomatic practitioners.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Workshop on Establishing and Operating a National Nuclear Security Support Centre Hypothetical Scenario: “Centralia Nuclear Security Support Centre Strategy Implementation Plan”

[This is part of a hypothetical scenario-based exercise for workshop participants, based on the fictitious country "Centralia."] In prior years, as a part of efforts to strengthen and better sustain nuclear security within the State, Centralia requested through the Integrated Nuclear Security Support Plan (INSSP) framework that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) conduct an expert mission on establishing and operating a national nuclear security support centre (NSSC). After the IAEA conducted the NSSC expert mission, members of the Centralia Committee on Nuclear Security (CNS) agreed to initiate the feasibility determination phase of establishing an NSSC, in line with the systematic process recommended by the IAEA. Centralia Nuclear Regulatory Authority (CNRA), as the designated lead organization for coordinating the feasibility determination process, prepared a Feasibility Report in collaboration with members of the CNS and based on input gathered among relevant national stakeholders. The report was presented to the National Security Advisor (NSA), who reviewed and approved the proposal for Centralia to proceed with establishing an NSSC. After Centralia moved into the planning phase for the Centralia Nuclear Security Support Centre (CNSSC), per REF, the primary stakeholders of the centre jointly developed this strategy implementation plan, which provides an outline of the organizational structure, needs analysis, programme objectives, financial and project management, risk management, and other key aspects of the centre. This document will be reviewed and updated as necessary on a semi-annual basis during the project implementation period of establishing CNSSC.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Women as a force multiplier for bringing nuclear forensic capabilities to the international stage

In 2009, the U.S. Department of Energy / National Nuclear Security Administration’s (DOE/NNSA) Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation (DNN) Program initiated a new nuclear forensics outreach effort under its Confidence Building Measures Program. Little did they know that the timing could not have been better. This article focuses on the early years (2009-2015) of the NNSA’s international nuclear forensics outreach, specifically the efforts and experiences of the women who helped establish this program, building it from a fledgling bilateral effort into an enduring technical capacity provider engaging with dozens of countries and multilateral organizations. At the onset of the program, nuclear forensics was an emerging priority within the U.S. Government and receiving increased focus from international organizations through high-level diplomatic efforts such as the Nuclear Security Summit and Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism. Additionally, working-level initiatives were gaining traction through the International Atomic Energy Agency and the Nuclear Forensics International Technical Working Group. Over the next six years, a small team comprised of a uniquely large number of women NNSA federal, contract, and national laboratory staff served as key leaders engaging with the international community to strengthen global technical nuclear forensics capacity and best practices. The program continues today under the Nuclear Smuggling Detection and Deterrence Program as Investigation Support. The experiences shared here detail a unique time period when the new technical discipline of nuclear forensics was beginning to mature and gain international traction. The authors have made every effort to remember history correctly and be as inclusive as possible. A wealth of training, guidance, and exercises documentation was developed in the 2009-2015 timeframe, much of which still serves as the foundation for today’s even more extensive program and community of dedicated technical and diplomatic practitioners.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Quantifying Water Storage Change and Land Subsidence Induced by Reservoir Impoundment Using GRACE, Landsat, and GPS Data

The construction of hydropower dams is a common strategy to support a country's increasing need for electricity and river water management for industry and agriculture. Although the hydrological and geophysical impacts of water relocation are usually assessed prior to impoundment, their accuracy is generally limited due to the lack of in situ observations, especially in a remote area. This study presents a workflow to quantify the terrestrial water storage change (TWS) and land subsidence induced by a reservoir's water impoundment using multiple satellite observations (GRACE, Landsat), land surface models (CABLE, GLDAS, NCEP, ECMWF), and GPS data. The study site is the Bakun Dam, located in Sarawak, Malaysia, which is the largest hydropower dam in Southeast Asia. Commencing operation in late 2010, the dam induced a change of water mass and lake surface area that was clearly observed by GRACE and Landsat observations, respectively. During the 17-month impounding period (from August 2010 to December 2011), GRACE observed a dramatic increase of approximately 200 mm equivalent water height, while Landsat detected an increased lake extent of around 600 km2. In this paper, a forward model is developed to determine the increased water surface level corresponding to GRACE observations, estimated to be about 120 m. In contrast to GRACE, the TWS derived from land surface models cannot capture the increased TWS, due to the lack of reservoir routing algorithms in the models. In addition, the land subsidence was calculated using the disk load model constructed based on the GRACE-derived lake level and Landsat-derived lake extent; the result is validated with the GPS data from BIN1 station, located at the western coast of Borneo. The commencement stage of the Bakun Dam induces the large-scale land subsidence, which causes the GPS-BIN1 station to subside by ~9 mm, and move toward the Bakun Lake by ~4 mm. Computation of the surface displacements directly from GRACE spherical harmonic coefficient data fails to capture the subsidence feature, mainly due to the truncation error. Overall, this study demonstrates that evaluating GRACE in conjunction with Landsat, LSMs, and GPS data allows the exploitation of the gravity signal at a much smaller spatial scale than its intrinsic resolution. Benefiting from global coverage, the newly developed satellite-based algorithm is a valuable tool for assessing the impacts of reservoir operation on hydrological and geophysical changes from local to regional scales.

Natthachet Tangdamrongsub↗

Charged Particle Dynamics in the Lunar Environment

As the Artemis Program streams forward, organizations of scientists and engineers across the country have been coming together to solve the complex network of problems to once again achieve the milestone of successfully touching down on the moon. This project is no exception, and it has been an honor to work with the Electrostatics and Surface Physics Laboratory (ESPL), a lab within the Exploration Research and Technology Programs’ Spaceport Technologies Office (UB-G) located at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration at Kennedy Space Center (NASA KSC). The authors and their mentor James R. Phillips III3, in tandem with researchers from the Astrodynamics and Space Robotics Laboratory (ASRL) at the University of Central Florida (UCF), have been working on creating a state-of-the-art (SOA) granular gas dynamics model for particulate contamination prevention and mitigation purposes. In essence, the underlying objective for this project is to more accurately model the resulting electrodynamic interactions between lunar regolith grains with applications to dust mitigation and rocket engine plume surface interactions. To achieve this goal, the team has been expanding upon existing open source classical molecular dynamics code developed by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). The following reports on the details of the problem at hand as well as the contributions that the authors have made towards resolution, including but not limited to the encoding of physical attributes and interactions for non-spherical polydisperse particle distributions within various bed geometries and preemptive data analysis implementations. Significant data analysis processes were utilized, and several original algorithms were created to perform critical evaluations, resulting in only a 0.006% error in discrepancy.

Annelisa B Esparza↗

Proceedings of the Second Airborne Imaging Spectrometer Data Analysis Workshop

The Second Airborne Imaging Spectrometer (AIS) Data Analysis Workshop was held at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory on May 6, 7, and 8, 1986. It was attended by 100 people from seven countries. Papers were presented by 24 attendees; summaries of 19 of the papers are published in these Workshop Proceedings. The Second Workshop was divided into three sessions: Calibration, the Atmosphere, and Data Techniques; Geological Research; and Botanical and Geobotanical Research. Because many of the AIS researchers have had an additional year to work with their data, a general advance was seen in the utilization of the data for solving earth science problems. The major conclusions that can be drawn from the Workshop are: (1) Almost everyone now working with AIS data is attempting to take into account in data analysis the effects of the atmosphere and sensor calibration and performance. As a result, information extraction techniques are becoming more sophisticated and effective. (2) The emphasis on work in the geological disciplines is beginning to shift to the application of AIS data for solving geological problems now that the efficacy of the data for mineral identification has been demonstrated. (3) In the botanical sciences, interpretation of AIS data is becoming more quantitative. Several statistical techniques are under development for extracting the subtle differences in plant spectra in the region of the near infrared and short wavelength infrared. In summary, an overall advance was seen in the ability to effectively utilize the fundamentally new class of data acquired with imaging spectrometers. There was also a general feeling at the Workshop however, that much work remains to be done in remote sensing research before the maximum potential of these data for solving earth science problems is realized.

Gregg Vane↗