Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “density estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,297 records · Page 72

Radiation pressure-driven shocks in winds from hot stars

The dynamical theory of radiation-pressure-driven shocks in winds from early-type stars is outlined. After the principal parameters needed for a description of these shocks are isolated (speeds relative to incoming material and their column densities), the shocks' principal properties as functions of these parameters are estimated. The special case of time-steady shocks is examined, and calculations are given for density, ionization state, temperature, and flow velocity as functions of position; also calculated are X-ray emissivity, UV line emissivity, and total radiation force as functions of shock velocity and postshock column density.

Krolik, J. H.↗

Techniques for measuring intercepted and absorbed PAR in corn canopies

The quantity of radiation potentially available for photosynthesis that is captured by the crop is best described as absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (PAR). Absorbed PAR (APAR) is the difference between descending and ascending fluxes. The four components of APAR were measured above and within two planting densities of corn (Zea mays L.) and several methods of measuring and estimating APAR were examined. A line quantum sensor that spatially averages the photosynthetic photon flux density provided a rapid and portable method of measuring APAR. PAR reflectance from the soil (Typic Argiaquoll) surface decreased from 10% to less than 1% of the incoming PAR as the canopy cover increased. PAR reflectance from the canopy decreased to less than 3% at maximum vegetative cover. Intercepted PAR (1 - transmitted PAR) generally overestimated absorbed PAR by less than 4% throughout most of the growing season. Thus intercepted PAR appears to be a reasonable estimate of absorbed PAR.

Gallo, K. P.↗

Capacity Density Considerations for Offshore Wind Plants in the United States

The United States is a rapidly emerging market for offshore wind energy, with a project pipeline estimated at over 52 GW as of May 31, 2023 (Musial et al. 2023). The capacity density, measured in megawatts per square kilometer (MW/km 2 ), is a crucial parameter for estimating the magnitude of the development pipeline and the nameplate potential of existing lease areas. The offshore wind energy industry is comprised of diversity of participants, including developers, governmental bodies, investors, environmental advocacy groups, and researchers. These various stakeholders use capacity density in different ways as a key metric for evaluating the potential of individual offshore wind lease area or even a section of ocean space. This report presents our assessment of capacity density values in the current pipeline of emerging U.S. offshore wind farms and a detailed list of the main factors that influence capacity density. This understanding is critical for planning of future lease areas, for estimating the technical resource potential for offshore wind on the U.S. outer continental shelf (OCS), and for estimating ocean space requirements needed for meeting state and national goals for a carbon neutral energy transition.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

An extended polynomial chaos expansion for PDF characterization and variation with aleatory and epistemic uncertainties

This paper presents an extended polynomial chaos formalism for epistemic uncertainties and a new framework for evaluating sensitivities and variations of output probability density functions (PDF) to uncertainty in probabilistic models of input variables. An ”extended” polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) approach is developed that accounts for both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, modeled as random variables, thus allowing a unified treatment of both types of uncertainty. We explore in particular epistemic uncertainty associated with the choice of prior probabilistic models for input parameters. A PCE-based Kernel Density (KDE) construction provides a composite map from the PCE coefficients and germ to the PDF of quantities of interest (QoI). Here, the sensitivities of these PDF with respect to the input parameters are then evaluated. Input parameters of the probabilistic models are considered. By sampling over the epistemic random variable, a family of PDFs is generated and the failure probability is itself estimated as a random variable with its own PCE. Integrating epistemic uncertainties within the PCE framework results in a computationally efficient paradigm for propagation and sensitivity evaluation. Two typical illustrative examples are used to demonstrate the proposed approach.

Aleatory uncertainty↗

Cathodic Protection Modeling for Hanford Underground Double-Shell Tank Farms

Hanford stores millions of gallons of radioactive and chemically hazardous waste from the production of weapon materials in tank farms consisting of underground carbon-steel storage tanks surrounded by reinforced concrete. Six of these Hanford tank farms use double-shell storage tanks (DSTs). The DST farms were constructed from 1968 to 1986 with a planned 40–50 year design life, so some are already operating beyond their initial life expectancy. Ultrasonic testing (UT) has indicated significant thinning on the bottom of the secondary (outer) liner of these tanks, believed to arise from groundwater intrusion driving concrete side corrosion. There is no direct access to the steel/concrete interface between the tank and the concrete pad, making it difficult to apply a chemical-based mitigation strategy or to conduct repairs, but cathodic protection (CP) is a possible method to inhibit further concrete-side corrosion. Hanford already uses CP to protect below grade steel piping within the tank farms and connected to the tanks, but this system was not designed to protect the tank bottoms. CP design must account for the structures surrounding the DSTs, including the steel reinforcing bars (rebar) within the concrete pad and vault, various process lines, and the existing CP system. In this study, finite element analysis (FEA) modeling was carried out to simulate CP protection of 1) a single tank and CP anode to develop options for modeling the rebar and to compare to a simpler circuit model and 2) the entire Hanford AN tank farm as a representative example consisting of seven tanks, associated piping, and both existing and new CP anodes. Both circuit and FEA models predict that significant protective current could be delivered to the bottoms of the tanks with the addition of tank-protection anodes below the depth of the tanks. Simulations with only the existing pipe-protection anodes active confirmed that only a very small current to the tank bottoms is predicted under present conditions. Multiple simplified representations of the dome and wall rebar were tested to reduce the computational complexity of the tank-farm simulations, resulting in modeling the rebar as edge elements with a prescribed effective circumference that matches the real rebar surface area. The geometry of the rebar is also simplified into horizontal hoops around the tank walls and radial rebar over the dome with increased effective circumference to retain the target surface area. This simplification was found to greatly reduce the complexity and solution time of the models without large changes in current distributions, especially to the tank bottom. A range of values were tested for model parameters such as soil and concrete resistivities and polarization resistance to investigate their impact on the current and electric potential distributions. Depending on the parameters used, FEA simulations predict some risk of overprotection, particularly on the piping system; since overprotection can also lead to surface damage associated with hydrogen gas generation at the interface (e.g. hydrogen embrittlement or damage to coatings), this needs to be considered when refining the design of the new CP system. Comparison between the FEA models and the circuit model representation demonstrated that the circuit model could not match the predicted FEA current distribution, even when using the exact same surface areas. This discrepancy appeared to be at least partly attributable to the impact of the relative positions of the tank components and anodes to each other and to the ground surface. The FEA model accounts for the relative positions since it solves the governing equations in three dimensions, but the circuit model cannot account for the positioning. In particular, the circuit model underpredicts the current to the tank bottom and overpredicts the current to the dome compared to FEA for the baseline geometry. The FEA models omitted the electrically isolated rebar in the bottom concrete slab. However, a circuit based stray current model estimated that only 2.1% of the total current through the slab would stray into the rebar, corresponding to ~0.21 A for a target current density of 2 mA/ft2 to the tank bottom. The estimated corrosion driven by this amount of stray current is predicted to yield a lifetime of >400 years for the minimum rebar diameter, assuming an acceptable cross-section area loss of 10%.

d'Entremont, Anna [Savannah River National Laborat↗

One-millimeter continuum emission studies of four molecular clouds

Maps with 1-arcmin resolution are presented of 1-mm thermal emission from dust grains in the central portions of the molecular clouds associated with four H II regions: W3, M42 (OMC-1), Sgr B2, and W49. The maps cover regions approximately 5 by 5 arcmin in extent. In each source, a sharp peak in the 1-mm surface brightness is seen at the position of a compact H II region and/or one or several luminous near-infrared sources. The radial density distributions in the center of the clouds have been estimated from the observed distribution of 1-mm surface brightness near the peaks. The results indicate that the central density gradients are quite steep. These gradients may have been established in the clouds by the collapse processes which led to the formation of the central luminous objects.

Westbrook, W. E.↗

Oxygen, Neon, and Iron X-Ray Absorption in the Local Interstellar Medium

We present a detailed study of X-ray absorption in the local interstellar medium by analyzing the X-ray spectra of 24 galactic sources obtained with the Chandra High Energy Transmission Grating Spectrometer and the XMM-Newton Reflection Grating Spectrometer. Methods. By modeling the continuum with a simple broken power-law and by implementing the new ISMabs X-ray absorption model, we have estimated the total H, O, Ne, and Fe column densities towards the observed sources. Results. We have determined the absorbing material distribution as a function of source distance and galactic latitude longitude. Conclusions. Direct estimates of the fractions of neutrally, singly, and doubly ionized species of O, Ne, and Fe reveal the dominance of the cold component, thus indicating an overall low degree of ionization. Our results are expected to be sensitive to the model used to describe the continuum in all sources.

SM: general / ISM: atoms / ISM: abundances / ISM: ↗

Uncertainty Quantification and Error Propagation in the Enthalpy and Entropy of Surface Reactions Arising from a Single DFT Functional

Accounting for parametric uncertainty in models is essential for quantifying the models’ predictive ability. Recently, approaches have been introduced to estimate parametric uncertainty in kinetic models while accounting for correlations among energy parameters. However, correlations have been estimated indirectly and correlations in entropies have not been accounted for. For surface-catalyzed microkinetic models of >C2 (more than two carbon-containing) molecules, which consist of thousands of reaction steps and intermediate surface species, first-principles density functional theory (DFT) is costly, and thus, estimation of thermochemistry and reaction barriers requires surrogate methods of DFT, such as group additivity and Brønsted–Evans–Polanyi relationships, respectively. For such parametrization, model uncertainty is unclear. This work develops a framework to overcome these gaps using group additivity and a single DFT functional. We estimate correlations in parameters of kinetic models and quantify uncertainty for thermochemistry, reaction barriers, reaction paths, and ultimately reaction rates, accounting also for the contribution of entropic uncertainty. Furthermore, the approach is illustrated on propane combustion and ethane oxidative dehydrogenation reactions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Tempering stochastic density functional theory

Here, we introduce a tempering approach with stochastic density functional theory (sDFT), labeled t-sDFT, which reduces the statistical errors in the estimates of observable expectation values. This is achieved by rewriting the electronic density as a sum of a "warm" component complemented by "colder" correction(s). Since the warm component is larger in magnitude but faster to evaluate, we use many more stochastic orbitals for its evaluation than for the smaller-sized colder correction(s). This results in a significant reduction in the statistical fluctuations and systematic deviation compared to sDFT for the same computational effort. We demonstrate the method's performance on large hydrogen-passivated silicon nanocrystals, finding a reduction in the systematic deviation in the energy by more than an order of magnitude, while the systematic deviation in the forces is also quenched. Similarly, the statistical fluctuations are reduced by factors of ≈4-5 for the total energy and ≈1.5-2 for the forces on the atoms. Since the embedding in t-sDFT is fully stochastic, it is possible to combine t-sDFT with other variants of sDFT such as energy-window sDFT and embedded-fragmented sDFT.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Representation of Probability Density Functions from Orbit Determination using the Particle Filter

Statistical orbit determination enables us to obtain estimates of the state and the statistical information of its region of uncertainty. In order to obtain an accurate representation of the probability density function (PDF) that incorporates higher order statistical information, we propose the use of nonlinear estimation methods such as the Particle Filter. The Particle Filter (PF) is capable of providing a PDF representation of the state estimates whose accuracy is dependent on the number of particles or samples used. For this method to be applicable to real case scenarios, we need a way of accurately representing the PDF in a compressed manner with little information loss. Hence we propose using the Independent Component Analysis (ICA) as a non-Gaussian dimensional reduction method that is capable of maintaining higher order statistical information obtained using the PF. Methods such as the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) are based on utilizing up to second order statistics, hence will not suffice in maintaining maximum information content. Both the PCA and the ICA are applied to two scenarios that involve a highly eccentric orbit with a lower apriori uncertainty covariance and a less eccentric orbit with a higher a priori uncertainty covariance, to illustrate the capability of the ICA in relation to the PCA.

Mashiku, Alinda K.↗

Parameter dependencies of the separatrix density in low triangularity L-mode and H-mode JET-ILW plasmas

Abstract The midplane electron separatrix density, n e,sep , in JET-ILW L-mode and H-mode low triangularity deuterium fuelled plasmas exhibits a strong explicit dependence on the averaged outer divertor target electron temperature, n e,sep ∼ T e,ot −1/2 . This dependence is reproduced by analytic reversed two point model (rev-2PM), and arises from parallel pressure balance, as well as the ratio of the power and momentum volumetric loss factors, (1 − f cooling )/(1 − f mom-loss ). Quantifying the influence of the (1 − f cooling ) and (1 − f mom-loss ) loss factors on n e,sep has been enabled by measurement estimates of these quantities from L-mode density (fueling) ramps in the outer horizontal, VH(C), and vertical target, VV, divertor configurations. Rev-2PM n e,sep estimates from the extended H-mode and more limited L-mode datasets are recovered to within ±25% of the measurements, with a scaling factor applied to account for use of T e,ot , an averaged quantity, rather than flux tube resolved target values. Both the (1 − f cooling ) and (1 − f mom-loss ) trends and recovery of n e,sep using the rev-2PM formatting are reproduced in EDGE2D-EIRENE L-mode-like and H-mode-like density scan simulations. The general lack of a divertor configuration effect in the JET-ILW n e,sep trends can be attributed to a significant influence of main chamber recycling, which has been shown in the EDGE2D-EIRENE results to moderate n e,sep with respect to changes in divertor neutral leakage imposed by changes in the divertor configuration. The unified n e,sep vs T e,ot trends can, however, be broken if large modifications to the divertor geometry (e.g. complete removal of the outer divertor baffle structure) are introduced in the model. The more pronounced high-field side high density region formation in the VH(C) configuration with reduced clearance to the separatrix does not appear to have a significant influence on the outer midplane separatrix and pedestal parameters when mapped to T e,ot , although conditions at the inner midplane could not be assessed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Phase Transitions and Melting in the Venusian Basaltic Crust: Implications for Crustal Recycling

Understanding phase transitions and melting in the Venusian crust and the associated changes in density are critical to constrain crustal thickness, recycling, and remelting processes. For example, average surface conditions on Venus of 92 bars and 460 °C correspond to low-grade metamorphic conditions on Earth equivalent to hornfels- and greenschist-facies. Further, the primary igneous mineralogy in the Venusian crust should be replaced by metamorphic minerals over time and potentially melt, as temperatures and pressures increase with depth along geothermal gradients. Here, we use Perple_X (Connolly, 2005), a Gibbs free energy minimization program to calculates table phase equilibria over a range of pressure and temperature conditions for whole-rock compositions of a dry basalt, alkali basalt, and peridotite. Further, we extract mineral abundancies along five geotherms of 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 °C/km and calculate the rock density after the extraction of melt. On the coldest geotherm of 5 °C/km, melting would start at ~ 197 km and ~121 km in the basalt and alkali basalt, respectively, and therefore at depths that significantly exceed the estimated thickness of the Venusian crust (8-25 km). A density cross-over, where the crustal density would exceed that of the mantle could potentially induce delamination and is estimated to occur at ~ 40 km for both compositions. On the 10 °C/km geotherm, melting of the basalt starts at 65 km and melt extraction only causes a gradual densification due the formation of initially lower melt proportions. In contrast, the alkali basalt starts to melt at a depth of ~ 57 km and the subsequent densification of the residual composition could trigger delamination at ~ 60km depth. For hotter geotherms (i.e., 25 °C/km gradient), melting would occur at shallower depths of 21 – 23 km. However, the basalt will not get significantly denser than the mantle while the residuum of the alkali basalt would reach a density cross-over at 30 km. Hence, differences in Venusian crustal compositions can significantly influence the thickness of the crust on individual geotherms. Our results demonstrate that phase transitions and melting are strongly dependent on the assumed geotherm and could, combined with geodynamic models, further constrain crustal parameters.

Julia Semprich↗

Impact of COVID-19-related Air Traffic Reductions on the Coverage and Radiative Effects of Linear Persistent Contrails over Conterminous United States and Surrounding Oceanic Routes

The radiative effects of the large-scale air traffic slowdown during Apr and May 2020 due to the international response to the COVID-19 pandemic are estimated by comparing the coverage (CC), optical properties, and radiative forcing of persistent linear contrails over the conterminous United States and two surrounding oceanic air corridors during the slowdown period and a similar baseline period during 2018 and 2019 when air traffic was unrestricted. The detected CC during the slowdown period decreased by an area-averaged mean of 41% for the three analysis boxes. The retrieved contrail optical properties were mostly similar for both periods. Total shortwave contrail radiative forcings during the slowdown were 34 and 42% smaller for Terra and Aqua, respectively. The corresponding differences for longwave contrail radiative forcing were 33% for Terra and 40% for Aqua. To account for the impact of any changes in the atmospheric environment between baseline and slowdown periods on detected CC amounts, the contrail formation potential (CFP) was computed from reanalysis data. In addition, a filtered CFP (fCFP) was also developed to account for factors that may affect contrail formation and visibility of persistent contrails in satellite imagery. The CFP and fCFP were combined with air traffic density data to create empirical models that estimated CC during the baseline and slowdown periods and were compared to the detected CC. The models confirm that decreases in CC and radiative forcing during the slowdown period were mostly due to the reduction in air traffic, and partly due to environmental changes.

contrails↗

Calculation of Weibull strength parameters, Batdorf flaw density constants and related statistical quantities using PC-CARES

This manual describes the operation and theory of the PC-CARES (Personal Computer-Ceramic Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures) computer program for the IBM PC and compatibles running PC-DOS/MS-DOR OR IBM/MS-OS/2 (version 1.1 or higher) operating systems. The primary purpose of this code is to estimate Weibull material strength parameters, the Batdorf crack density coefficient, and other related statistical quantities. Included in the manual is the description of the calculation of shape and scale parameters of the two-parameter Weibull distribution using the least-squares analysis and maximum likelihood methods for volume- and surface-flaw-induced fracture in ceramics with complete and censored samples. The methods for detecting outliers and for calculating the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and the Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit statistics and 90 percent confidence bands about the Weibull line, as well as the techniques for calculating the Batdorf flaw-density constants are also described.

Szatmary, Steven A.↗

Time delay occultation data of the Helios spacecrafts and preliminary analysis for probing the solar corona

S-band time delay measurements were collected from the spacecrafts Helios A and B during three solar occultations in 1975/76 within heliocentric distances of about 3 and 215 solar radii in terms of range, Doppler frequency shift, and electron content. A description is given concerning some characteristic features of the methods of measurement and data processing. Typical data sets are discussed to probe the electron density distribution near the sun (west and east limb as well) including the outer and extended corona. Steady-state and dynamical aspects of the solar corona are presented and compared with earth-bound K-coronagraph measurements. Using a weighted least squares estimation 3 parameters of an average coronal electron density profile are derived in a preliminary analysis to yield electron densities of about 130 billion; 100 million; 7 million/cu m at r?3; 65; 215 solar radii. Transient phenomena are discussed and a velocity of propagation v approximately 900 km/s for plasma ejecta from a solar flare is determined from an extraordinary set of Helios B electron content measurements on April 30/May 1, 1976.

Edenhofer, P.↗

Revealing Relationships among Relevant Climate Variables with Information Theory

The primary objective of the NASA Earth-Sun Exploration Technology Office is to understand the observed Earth climate variability, thus enabling the determination and prediction of the climate's response to both natural and human-induced forcing. We are currently developing a suite of computational tools that will allow researchers to calculate, from data, a variety of information-theoretic quantities such as mutual information, which can be used to identify relationships among climate variables, and transfer entropy, which indicates the possibility of causal interactions. Our tools estimate these quantities along with their associated error bars, the latter of which is critical for describing the degree of uncertainty in the estimates. This work is based upon optimal binning techniques that we have developed for piecewise-constant, histogram-style models of the underlying density functions. Two useful side benefits have already been discovered. The first allows a researcher to determine whether there exist sufficient data to estimate the underlying probability density. The second permits one to determine an acceptable degree of round-off when compressing data for efficient transfer and storage. We also demonstrate how mutual information and transfer entropy can be applied so as to allow researchers not only to identify relations among climate variables, but also to characterize and quantify their possible causal interactions.

Knuth, Kevin H.↗

A Comparison of Three Ways to Measure Time-Dependent Densities With Quantum Simulators

Quantum algorithms are touted as a way around some classically intractable problems such as the simulation of quantum mechanics. At the end of all quantum algorithms is a quantum measurement whereby classical data is extracted and utilized. In fact, many of the modern hybrid-classical approaches are essentially quantum measurements of states with short quantum circuit descriptions. Here, we compare and examine three methods of extracting the time-dependent one-particle probability density from a quantum simulation: direct Z -measurement, Bayesian phase estimation, and harmonic inversion. We have tested these methods in the context of the potential inversion problem of time-dependent density functional theory. Our test results suggest that direct measurement is the preferable method. We also highlight areas where the other two methods may be useful and report on tests using Rigetti's quantum virtual device. This study provides a starting point for imminent applications of quantum computing.

Yang, Jun↗

Comparison of projected critical currents in PbMo6S8 and Nb3Ge

Critical current densities, Jc, of sputtered Chevrel phase PbMo6S8 films have been measured as a function of field to 19 T at several temperatures. The pinning forces were found to obey a scaling law. Assuming an effective upper critical field Bc2 = 45 T, an effective critical temperature Tc = 13 K, together with empirical estimates of numerical factors in the scaling law, the upper limits for critical current density Jc in PbMo6S8 are estimated. Comparisons are made with estimates of Jc for Nb3Ge at 4.2 K. A crossover of Jc vs. B is found for B of the order of 25 to 30 T. Below this point, Nb3Ge is projected to have a higher critical current density. Thus practical use of Chevrel materials in high field magnets only appears to be competitive with Nb3Ge for fields above 25 to 30 T.

Alterovitz, S. A.↗