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R-SEEDS Final Report

DER aggregation and grid digitalization imply a future grid that would benefit from more fluid interaction between the bulk power system and the distribution system. This scenario presents a challenge for grid modeling, which treats the two systems separately. Grid modeling also focuses on the engineering aspects of grids without incorporating modeling of the human and social dimensions of the grid as a cyber-physical-social system. The R-SEEDS project examines the integration of human and social models into grid modeling and its implications on decarbonization, energy justice, and distributional impacts.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Nuclear Thermal Energy Storage Configurations for Industrial Combined Heat and Power Supply: Conceptual Study and Engineering Designs

The industries examined in this report primarily rely on moderate-temperature heat provided by gas- or coal-fired boilers and combined heat and power (CHP) plants, delivered through standard process steam systems. High-temperature energy demands are often industry-specific and typically exceed the capabilities of high-temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTGRs). While it is technically feasible to replace process steam from fossil-based heat sources with nuclear energy, certain industries, such as methanol production and pulp and paper, face technoeconomic challenges in integrating nuclear energy without major changes or a technological shift. This is mainly due to the limited external energy demand remaining after the use of internal byproducts, waste heat recovery, and simple efficiency improvements. Achieving full decarbonization of these processes with nuclear energy would require significant technological advancements, involving experimental technology and substantial investments, making widespread adoption in existing industrial plants unlikely in the near term. This study reviews TES options in the context of enabling a flexible CHP supply while maintaining a steady nuclear heat input. Heat storage systems that interface between the reactor primary fluid and the CHP system offer superior performance and flexibility. Specifically, steam extraction downstream of the reheater with a two-tank molten-salt TES appears as the best solution regarding thermodynamic system benefits and system drawbacks. Using selected system configurations, a conceptual design of an industrial energy park was developed for industries with varying energy demands, such as steel production plants utilizing electric arc furnaces (EAFs) and chemical plants, as well as for those with constant energy demands, like petroleum refineries. This design highlights the capabilities of TES and explores its potential business cases. The study also conceptually develops the potential for integrating additional energy sources with nuclear systems through the implementation of TES. The potential of the HTGR-TES-CHP system was also evaluated considering key uncertainties such as industrial demand profiles, external grid access availability, and eligible tax credit levels, using the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network. Sensitivity of net present value to these uncertainties was analyzed to determine the optimal number of nuclear reactors (and CHP systems) and the suitable TES capacity. The results were interpreted from a decision-maker’s perspective, focusing on three key areas: deployment strategy (oversized units vs. undersized units with TES support), industrial process characteristics (thermal-intensive single profiles vs. electricity-intensive combined profiles), and operational goals (maximizing profits vs. minimizing natural gas (NG) consumption or external grid dependence). The optimization results indicate that the HTGR-TES-CHP system significantly reduces reliance on NG boilers for individual industrial processes by 9-60% (in NG capacity factor), with an average reduction of 38%, compared to standalone NG boiler operation case (Business As Usual [BAU]). For combined industrial processes, the reduction ranges from 37-77%, with an average of 60%. Additionally, the system greatly reduces dependence on external grids. In meeting industrial electrical demands, a 33-100% self-sufficient internal electricity supply is achieved for single industrial process, with an average of 74%, compared to the BAU scenario, where 100% of electricity is imported. For combined processes, 35-100% of internal electricity demands are met by the reactor, with an average of 73%. At last, the relative NG price levels at which the proposed HTGR-TES-CHP system can cost-effectively enter the market currently dominated by existing NG boilers were estimated. For a moderate HTGR CAPEX level ($\$$2500/kWth, $\$$6329/kWe), the analysis suggests that NG prices must be 2.5 to 7 times higher than HTGR variable operating and maintenance costs for single industrial process, and 5.5 to 9.5 times higher for a combined process scenario. Tax credit modeling shows that the Investment Tax Credit significantly reduces the price threshold needed to break even, making the system competitive with NG boilers in certain cases.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Nuclear Energy Cost Estimates for Net Zero World Initiative – 2024 Update

This report provides recommended parameters for incorporating nuclear energy systems into decarbonization modeling scenarios. The values are primarily intended for the Net Zero World (NZW) Initiative but are expected to prove useful to other related efforts. Both costs and operational metrics are provided in the study for large reactors and small modular reactors (SMR).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Carbon storage cost modeling for the offshore Gulf of Mexico

Groundbreaking for geologic carbon storage (GCS) projects in the offshore Gulf of Mexico is imminent, and there is great interest in utilizing this region for GCS projects. Offshore saline reservoirs provide a significant and accessible resource for GCS. However, conducting GCS in the offshore environment will pose distinct challenges pertaining to site selection, operations, infrastructure use, and monitoring compared to operating onshore that ultimately affect technoeconomic assessment of offshore GCS projects. Carbon storage and transport costs are critical to project developers looking to deploy carbon storage in the offshore environment. We present CO2_S_COM_Offshore, a model developed by the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) as a screening-level offshore saline GCS cost modeling tool. Based on NETL’s widely used CO2_S_COM cost model for onshore saline CS, CO2_S_COM_Offshore enables technoeconomic analysis of GCS in offshore areas. This model comprehensively incorporates multiple facets of offshore GCS projects, from regional evaluation and site selection to permitting, transport, operations, monitoring, site closure, and decommissioning. In general, the model can explore the cost implications for potential offshore GCS project(s) by enabling the user to change several project operational and financial attribute configurations. Key inputs include offshore storage formation options, CO2 injection rate and duration, infrastructure types, monitoring intensity, project financing, and post-injection site care duration. Supporting cost algorithms within CO2_S_COM_Offshore were compiled utilizing S&P Global’ s QUE$TORTM cost estimation software alongside a variety of open-source scientific literature. In addition to reviewing key model components, we discuss several sensitivity analyses, input variabilities, and results on analysis of break-even CO2 price required by a project based on different regulation/policy and operational scenarios for the offshore Gulf of Mexico. These results indicate the value of modeling offshore GCS specifically, and the potential of offshore GCS within a decarbonization value chain. Presented at the 41st USAEE/IAEE North American Conference, 3-6 November 2024, Baton Rouge, LA, United States.

Mark-Moser, Mackenzie K.↗

Review of Feasibility and Cost Drivers for Floating Offshore Wind Energy in Washington State

The state of Washington must double its clean electricity supply by 2050 to meet its clean energy goals and comply with the Clean Energy Transformation Act. With more than 6.6 GW of technical resource potential in federal waters where Bureau of Ocean Energy Management has leasing authority, offshore wind energy could play an important role in diversifying Washington State's clean energy mix, reducing dependence on out-of-state energy sources, and helping meet state decarbonization goals. Decision makers need technology-specific information to assist with long-term energy system planning, so the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management requested that the National Renewable Energy Laboratory provide an overview of several drivers of offshore wind energy feasibility and cost in Washington. This study summarizes some of the existing engagement efforts and perspectives on offshore wind energy in the region and quantifies the offshore wind resources in Washington as well as technology costs and performance of potential projects. Furthermore, this report reviews existing grid and port infrastructure and discusses infrastructure needs along with information gaps. This study also explores opportunities and barriers to Washington entities supporting the broader floating offshore wind energy supply chain along the U.S. West Coast. Note that this study is not part of a formal project planning process or official engagement effort, nor does it assess environmental or economic impacts from potential offshore wind energy development.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Generative AI for Power Grid Operations

Generative artificial intelligence (AI) has captured into the mainstream, demonstrating capabilities that once belonged solely to the realm of human cognition. From defeating world champions in complex games to generating human-quality text and images, Generative AI has proven its potential to revolutionize countless industries. The electric power grid is no exception. Generative AI's ability to process vast amounts of data rapidly, assist decision support and identify patterns could significantly enhance power grid operations. For example, Generative AI could improve state estimation where measurements are not available or integrate renewable energy sources more efficiently with probabilistic forecasting. The key contributions of this whitepaper are outlined below: (1) Comprehensive overview of Generative AI's applications in power grid operations: It highlights the opportunities in areas such as forecasting, state estimation, and demonstrating the potential for enhancing efficiency, reliability, and resilience. (2) Expanding Generative AI's impact through synergies with emerging technologies: The paper introduce NREL developed eGridGPT and explores how AI orchestration, multi-agent systems, and Digital Twins can collaborate to optimize grid operations, addressing the complexities of a decarbonized and electrified future. (3) In-depth analysis of challenges in implementing Generative AI: This includes considerations like data availability and quality, model validation, certification, and ethical concerns, ensuring responsible AI deployment. (4) Emphasizing human-AI collaboration: The whitepaper underscores the importance of trustworthy, transparency, and explainability in AI systems to promote seamless interaction between human operators and AI, ultimately improving decision-making. (5) Exploring future research and development: It identifies critical areas for further advancement to fully realize Generative AI's potential in power grid operations. This whitepaper serves as a valuable resource for researchers, practitioners, and policymakers looking to harness Generative AI for a more reliable, stable, and cost-effective power grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Average and Marginal Capacity Credit Values of Renewable Energy and Battery Storage in the United States Power System

As deployment of renewable resources and storage continue to significantly grow in the coming decades, these technologies will play increasingly important roles in maintaining power systems' resource adequacy. Few analyses so far offer comprehensive comparisons of forward-looking average and marginal capacity credits of variable renewable energy and storage in the U.S. interconnections across a wide range of possible futures. To fill this research gap, we quantify the average and marginal capacity credits of solar PV, onshore and offshore wind, and batteries between 2026 and 2050 across the U.S power systems to examine the temporal trends, spatial patterns, and trade-offs between these two capacity accreditation approaches. Across technologies, capacity credits of solar PV most clearly follow downward trends over time, reflecting the significant rise in solar PV generation share as the grid decarbonizes. While battery storages' generation shares also rise significantly over time, their capacity credits always remain stably high due to their capabilities to be dispatched strategically during critical periods to maintain reliability. On the other hand, capacity credits of wind technologies in general follow slight upward trends as their generation shares level off. There are strong spatial variabilities of both average and marginal capacity credits across technologies, but capacity credits of solar PV displaying the most obvious spatial patterns with high capacity credits concentrating in wind-rich, solar-poor regions in SPP, PJM, and MISO, suggesting potential reliability benefits of interconnection-wide planning for renewable energy deployments. Additionally, except for offshore wind, average capacity credits of all other renewable technologies tend to be higher than their marginal capacity credits, indicating that existing renewable resources tend to be accredited higher than new resources at almost any time.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Consumer Benefits of Clean Energy: The resilience value of residential solar + storage systems in the continental U.S.

Meeting national and state decarbonization goals requires a transition to clean energy technologies. Energy efficiency, demand flexibility, renewable energy and storage can reduce consumers’ electricity bills, lower total electricity system costs, and provide health and resilience benefits. Berkeley Lab developed a series of briefs that explore these consumer benefits of a clean energy transition. Clean energy resources that are located behind the meter have the potential to benefit the hosting customers by providing affordability, environmental, and reliability and resilience value. Solar plus storage systems (PVESS) are clean energy resources that can supply backup power without requiring fuel resupply or increasing local emissions. This report examines the regional value of PVESS for resilience by calculating a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) that considers the annual resiliency benefits of PVESS and the annualized cost of the investment. In addition, we estimate the expected technical mitigation potential of PVESS systems at the county-level to these expected events, and characterize the customer interruption costs by determining the value of lost load at the state level.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Consumer Benefits of Clean Energy: Renewable Energy

Meeting national and state decarbonization goals requires a transition to clean energy technologies. Energy efficiency, demand flexibility, renewable energy and storage can reduce consumers’ electricity bills, lower total electricity system costs, and provide health and resilience benefits. Berkeley Lab developed a series of briefs that explore these consumer benefits of a clean energy transition. This brief discusses some of the possible consumer benefits of utility-scale and behind the meter renewable energy, with a focus on how these resources can contribute to a low-cost electricity system. It begins with a literature review of modeled impacts, primarily considering consumer benefits, of the Inflation Reduction Act and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law. Next, it discusses how utility-scale renewable energy can contribute to a low-cost electricity system (e.g., in some cases, low resource costs relative to other alternatives). It concludes with a discussion of behind-the-meter renewable energy consumer benefits (e.g., reduced host electricity bill, increased property value, resilience).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Large-scale Hydrogen Storage Risk Assessment

This project investigated risks involved in deploying a large-scale hydrogen storage system at the Port of Seattle (hereafter, the Port) for its on-terminal and maritime applications in an urban industrial setting. Alongside, the project attempted to address some of the barriers to risk assessment such as need for an exact system design for a systematic investigation, direct access to surrounding communities to gauge their perceptions, and an integrated software required to undertake a full-fledged risk assessment. These barriers were overcome using illustrative reference station designs, engaging with community-facing agencies through Port support, and pooling national laboratory capabilities available for risk assessments. The project identified relevant public safety risk metrics, compared various hydrogen carriers, engaged with community-facing agencies, and explored potential gaps in existing safety codes and standards. The primary impacts of this project include the development of risk assessment guidance for ports and utilities, informing them of the trade-offs in the choice of hydrogen carriers, and the ability to increase public capacity for dialog and engagement. This paves the way toward decarbonization of the Port activities, bringing about awareness around jobs in the market for risk assessments, and the need to ramp up community engagement long before any hydrogen system deployment is undertaken.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Safety Codes and Standards Review and Gap Analysis for Applicability to Hydrogen Rail Refueling, Defueling, Maintenance, and Storage

Hydrogen-powered locomotives may present an alternative to diesel for achieving transportation-related decarbonization, energy security, and resilience goals. As an emerging technology, hydrogen locomotives may not have adequate representation in current safety codes and standards. NFPA 2 and other appropriate codes and standards were reviewed to identify technical gaps in the code for hydrogen rail defueling, refueling, maintenance, and storage. Several technical gaps pertaining to setback distances, allowable quantities, ventilation rates, and grounding have been identified. Fueling requirements can be informed by road vehicle standards but may need to be revised for larger quantity hydrogen locomotive systems. Since there are no hydrogen-specific locomotive design and safety standards, some aspects of diesel-based locomotive standards may apply. CGA G- 5.5 currently provides the most guidance on height, placement, orientation, and design of vent systems, while other standards emphasize the importance of shielding vent stacks and provide requirements for orientation of their discharge.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Grid Planning for Building Electrification: A Report by the Energy Systems Integration Group’s Grid Planning for Building Electrification Task Force

The increased electrification of buildings across the United States is being driven by technical advancements, cost reductions for some building technologies, consumer preferences, and policy goals for decarbonization. However, the effects of this load growth on the electric distribution system are often only a minor consideration in policymaking and long-term planning studies. The long lead time and useful life of power system equipment means that the decisions taken today are expected to support our society well into the 2060s and beyond. Distribution planning stakeholders can take steps today to establish a grid foundation that captures the new challenges presented by building electrification. This report focuses on building electrification for the residential and commercial sectors, focusing most heavily on space heating, as this end use stands to most strongly impact demand.1 Across all end uses, building electrification could require somewhere between 10% and 70% more electricity generation capacity than exists today depending on technology adoption and energy efficiency.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Optimizing Carbon Capture, Transport, and Storage: Overcoming Challenges with Machine Learning and Cost-Benefit Analysis

Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) is a critical strategy for reducing CO₂ emissions and mitigating climate change. However, its widespread deployment faces numerous challenges across the capture, transport, and storage phases. These challenges include the technical complexity of predicting subsurface behaviors during CO₂ injection, ensuring long-term storage integrity, optimizing transportation networks, and balancing the economic and environmental trade-offs. Addressing these issues requires an integrated approach combining advanced subsurface modeling with system-level analyses to assess costs, risks, and benefits. This presentation provides an overview of studies conducted by the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) to tackle these challenges. NETL’s efforts encompass cutting-edge research in subsurface fluid behavior machine learning predictions, alongside the development of innovative tools for system optimization and economic evaluation. By bridging technical expertise and strategic analysis, NETL aims to advance the deployment of CCUS technologies to support global decarbonization efforts. Presented at the Carnegie Mellon University CEE IESS Student Seminar October 4, 2024.

Shih, Chung Yan↗

Impact of Technology Improvements on the Cost of Hydrogen Produced using SOEC Technology at Large Scale

National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) provides system-level process, cost, and market analyses on solid oxide cell (SOC) based technologies. Specifically, techno-economic analyses (TEA), market assessments, and other technology evaluations serve to guide the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management (FECM) Reversible Solid Oxide Fuel Cell (R-SOFC) Program technology goals and objectives. These studies are key to describing how the technologies contribute to improving domestic energy infrastructure in a clean, efficient manner. This effort focuses on hydrogen generation technologies, which have received recent attention due to their potential role in economy-wide decarbonization. In particular, the study is part of a series of investigations at NETL that seek to understand the techno-economic impacts of including SOC technology in energy production, hydrogen production, and/or storage configurations. The objective of this study is to establish a detailed TEA to assess the effectiveness of incremental technology improvements needed for solid oxide electrolysis cell (SOEC) technology to achieve the U.S. DOE’s Hydrogen Shot goal of hydrogen production at less than $1 per kilogram. To take advantage of the benefits of economies of scale, the SOEC hydrogen facilities are sized to produce ≈250,000 metric tons of hydrogen annually with an electrolysis load of one gigawatt (direct current). Some additional critical assumptions include stacks that operate near the thermo-neutral voltage of 1.28 V to avoid adverse thermal gradients, all necessary steam and heat is generated by electric boilers and heaters to enable green hydrogen production, and an air sweep is used to control the oxygen concentration in the air electrode exhaust stream. System efficiency and levelized costs of hydrogen (LCOH) for each case are presented.

Hackett, Gregory↗

Basic Energy Sciences Roundtable: Foundational Science to Accelerate Nuclear Energy Innovation

Energy security, availability, and reliability are among the greatest challenges facing the nation and the planet. An abundant potential source of energy resides in the fundamental atomic building blocks of the universe in the form of nuclear fission and fusion reactions. In fact, energy from nuclear fission currently provides the majority of the world’s zero-carbon electricity, and future fusion energy systems offer great promise; carbon-free nuclear energy technologies can be key to the world’s decarbonized energy future. Although contemporary fission systems use well-established technologies to supply safe and efficient baseload power, they could be more fuel efficient and less costly. Moving beyond massive light-water fission reactors to a variety of advanced nuclear systems—which will vary in size and operate in extremes of temperature, corrosivity, and other parameters—will place stringent conditions on materials and chemical systems. New demands will be placed on the coolants and solvents, the materials, and the monitoring tools used in these reactors. Fusion-based nuclear energy will require superior materials to withstand extremely high temperatures, plasma exposure, radiation damage, and implanted gases. The advantages associated with these new fission and fusion technologies will be realized only through continued advancements in the fundamental science underpinning our knowledge of the physics and chemistry of nuclear systems gained via improved experimental and computational methods. In July 2022, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Basic Energy Sciences—in coordination with the Offices of Nuclear Energy, Fusion Energy Sciences, and Advanced Scientific Computing Research—held a virtual roundtable titled “Foundational Science to Accelerate Nuclear Energy Innovation” to discuss the scientific and technical barriers for advanced nuclear energy systems. Five priority research opportunities were identified to address these scientific and technical challenges and to accelerate progress toward the realization of next-generation fusion and fission energy systems. The foundational science gaps inhibiting the advancement of nuclear energy technologies are identified and tackled in five priority research opportunities. These opportunities pave the way to accelerate the development and ultimately the adoption of new nuclear energy systems. They include the fundamental aspects of ion-electron interactions; novel properties of next-generation coolants and solvents; interfacial dynamics, not only in solids, but in other aspects of nuclear reactors; novel operando and in situ monitoring and sensing; and artificial intelligence to accelerate condensed phases discovery. Building on the foundation established by previous Basic Energy Sciences workshops, these opportunities encompass recent advances in fundamental knowledge and focus on the experimental and computational methods needed to resolve major technical challenges for nuclear energy technologies. Through developing fundamental scientific insight as well as pushing the frontiers of modeling complex systems and probing the operation of materials and chemical systems in extreme environments, research motivated by the priorities identified here will further develop the promise, potential, and utilization of nuclear energy for a clean energy future.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Design, Fabrication, and testing of Direct Air Capture Sorbent modules to increase understanding of trade-offs in pressure drop and capture efficiency

Conference presentation for the work entitled “Design, Fabrication, and testing of Direct Air Capture Sorbent modules to increase understanding of trade-offs in pressure drop and capture efficiency”. In recent years, there has been a growing interest in Direct Air Capture (DAC) of CO2. This technology is gaining attention as a method to enhance the reduction of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs), particularly when used alongside other decarbonization strategies. The route for efficient and net carbon negative DAC is challenging because CO2 in the atmosphere is highly diluted (~400ppm). This work, utilizing 3D printing capabilities for rapid prototyping, presents application-based findings on the design, fabrication, and testing of DAC module form factors that house solid sorbents. The work leverages an experimental rig that can achieve air throughput and velocities approaching that which are anticipated for commercial scales. The tradeoffs of pressure drop, footprint and capture efficiency are discussed for different orientations of a NETL patented sorbent material.

Riley, Jarrett↗

Road Map for the Development of Commercial Maritime Applications of Advanced Nuclear Technology

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is making significant investments in advanced nuclear reactor development and demonstration programs such as the Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program (ARDP). The innovations in advanced nuclear reactor technologies (defined in Section 1.4.1), including concepts of microreactors and small modular reactors (SMRs), have opened the door to a wide range of applications beyond land-based power stations providing electricity to the grid. Applications for transportation and industrial operations could offer reliable carbon-free energy to achieve decarbonization goals by supporting energy-intensive activities such as alternative fuel production, water desalinization, and local power supply. The DOE recognizes the transformational power of these technologies and is investing in foundational research and development as well as reactor demonstration projects. However, unique and significant challenges exist in each application domain to bring projects into reality beyond just the underlying reactor technology maturation.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

MR13A-3183: Microbial and Geochemical Characterization of Groundwater: Implications for Underground Hydrogen Storage Leakage

Underground hydrogen storage (UHS) in geological formations is a key element of the clean energy transition as it enables the decarbonization of the transportation and industrial sectors by decoupling hydrogen production and storage. UHS has many benefits, including low cost, much wider availability, large storage capacity, well-established infrastructure, and increased safety because of geological sealing capabilities. However, the impact of hydrogen (H2) biogeochemical interactions in the presence of subsurface microorganisms is largely neglected from UHS perspectives. These interactions might affect the effectiveness of storage and can even cause H2 to leak into the shallow aquifers. Leakage of H2 into groundwater can change the geochemistry and induce several microbial-driven processes. Microorganisms, such as sulfate-reducers, are naturally abundant in groundwater and consume H2 to produce hydrogen sulfide (H2S), which can contaminate the freshwater drinking groundwater and cause damage to infrastructure. Hydrogen leakage can also trigger microbial reactions responsible for metal mobility, which can impact the water quality. However, the kinetics of these reactions and the temporal impact of hydrogen leakage in groundwater are still unknown. Therefore, a time series hydrogen-groundwater interaction experiment was conducted, and the changes in fluid chemistry and headspace gas composition will be analyzed along with DNA sequencing results to understand the extent and kinetics of biogeochemical reactions that occur if hydrogen leaks into groundwater. In the experiments, Ultra High Purity (UHP) hydrogen gas will be injected into glass vials with groundwater samples, for a designated time period. For each glass-sealed vial, 16S rRNA gene sequencing, IC, ICP-MS, and GC-TCD will be performed. The experiments provide insights into plausible impacts of hydrogen leakage into shallow drinking water aquifers.

Clark, Allison [West Virginia University (WVU)]↗