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Feasibility Study of Developing Alternative Common-Cause Failure Model for Event Assessment

This report is a revision of the original report, INL/LTD-14-33376. The original report, which was a limited distribution to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) only and not available to the public, was revised as this report for public distribution. The report presents the feasibility study of alternative common-cause failure (CCF) models that could be used for event assessment in the Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models. The current CCF model used by the SPAR models is the alpha factor model. The proposed alternative CCF models are the partial alpha factor model and general dependency model. These alternative CCF models are reviewed and compared to the current alpha factor model, with the partial alpha factor model being identified as the preferred CCF model that could be used for event assessment in the SPAR models.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Solar +: Clean Energy Strategies for the Sunshine State (Final Technical Report (FTR) of the Florida Alliance for Accelerating Solar and Storage Technology Readiness (FAASSTeR))

This reports on a four-year effort to provide foundational research, analysis, strategies and assistance to help Florida, and other states that might learn from this work, to grow solar energy in conjunction with other distributed energy resources by addressing and overcoming existing barriers, and in way that delivers increased value. The start of this effort coincided with an inflection point of sorts into a new dawn for solar energy in Florida, where the Sunshine state’s national ranking in total installed solar, according to the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA), has rose from 13th to 4th. Florida has now become the national leader in annual utility-scale solar growth as dozens of large plants have come online. Also, during this time, Florida utilities have expressed a strong and growing interest in understanding the role of energy storage and how to best plan for and deploy this unique resource as part of strategies to grow solar. The utility-scale solar growth experienced has been fueled by the economics of solar cost-parity with natural gas combined cycle plants and Florida Public Service Commission’s (PSC) approval of cost-recovery for the Investor-Owned Utilities (IOU’s), primarily through the Solar Base Rate Adjustment (SoBRA) mechanism. This has led to gigawatts (GW’s) of rate-based solar capacity additions over several years, along with fairly significant amounts of energy storage. Meanwhile, municipal electric utilities, which, collectively, are the third largest source of power in the state, have been increasing solar considerably through power purchase agreements (PPA’s) and are on track to have close to 1 GW of grid-connected solar by 2024. Florida’s municipal utilities and the Florida Municipal Electric Association (FMEA) have been key partners in the Florida Alliance for Accelerating Solar and Storage Technology Readiness (FAASSTeR), formed to carry out this effort. The six largest of these have been Core Team utilities, engaging throughout the project in weekly calls, discussions, and project direction, participating in and hosting workshops and benefiting from technical assistance in several areas.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NERC MISOPS

This investigation was commissioned by the Office of Electricity of the Department of Energy in response to reviewing the NERC State of Reliability report. The study is an attempt to proactively address electric utility industry needs. “Monitoring, analyzing, and tracking trends in Protection System Misoperations are critical to improve BES reliability. Historically, Protection System Misoperations have exacerbated the severity of most cascading power outages.” The NERC misoperations data shows that unnecessary trips are by far the leading category of reported misoperations and that a majority of misoperations are those of line protection packages. A significant number of misoperations are tied to microprocessor relays. Approximately one quarter of reported misoperations are due to incorrect settings and another one quarter of misoperations are due to relay failures/malfunctions and communication failures.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

2020 Cost of Wind Energy Review

This report uses representative utility-scale and distributed wind energy projects to estimate the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for land-based and offshore wind power plants in the United States. Data and results detailed here are derived from 2020 commissioned plants and representative industry data as well as state-of-the-art modeling capabilities. Modeling is conducted to provide more granular detail on specific cost categories. This report represents the tenth annual installment and is intended to provide insight into current component-level costs as well as a basis for understanding variability in wind energy LCOE across the country.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NuTools: Exploring Practical Roles for Neutrinos in Nuclear Energy and Security

For decades, physicists have used neutrinos from nuclear reactors to advance basic science. These pursuits have inspired many ideas for application of neutrino detectors in nuclear energy and security. While developments in neutrino detectors are now making some of these ideas technically feasible, their value in the context of real needs and constraints has been unclear. This report seeks to help focus the picture of where neutrino technology may find practical roles in nuclear energy and security. This report is the final product of the Nu Tools study, commissioned in 2019 by the DOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) Office of Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation Research and Development (DNN R\&D). The study was conducted over two years by a group of neutrino physicists and nuclear engineers. A central theme of the study and this report is that useful application of neutrinos will depend not only on advancing physics and technology but also on understanding the needs and constraints of potential end-users.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Home Energy Professionals Certifications ISO/IEC 17024: 2021 Policies and Procedures Manual

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) enlisted its National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to coordinate the development of a framework for new certifications in the weatherization and home performance industry. The Home Energy Professional certifications support DOE's Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) and the broader residential home performance industry through the credentialing process of defined job task analysis for energy auditors and quality control inspectors. The HEP certifications are not intended to supplant or infringe upon any existing industry-recognized credentials, however, the WAP and the home performance industry have utilized the advanced HEP certifications to promote quality work and standardized job task analysis since 2010. On an ongoing basis, NREL brings industry practitioners and subject matter experts together to develop, review, and revise the certification schemes in accordance with the International Organization for Standardization (ISO)/International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) 17024 standard, "Conformity assessment - General requirements for bodies operating certification of persons" (ISO/IEC 17024). This handbook covers the policies and procedures for the process of developing, maintaining, and validating the certification schemes. Each policy and procedure includes the relevant ISO/IEC 17024 section at the beginning.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Nuclear Data Assessment for Advanced Reactors

Advanced reactor concepts being developed throughout the industry are significantly different from light-water reactor (LWR) designs with respect to geometry, materials, and operating conditions, and consequently, with respect to their reactor physics behavior. Given the limited operating experience with non-LWRs, the accurate simulation of reactor physics and the quantification of associated uncertainties are important for ensuring that the nuclear design for advanced reactor concepts include appropriate margins. Nuclear data are a major source of input uncertainties in reactor physics analysis. As part of a project sponsored by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), key nuclear data relevant to reactor safety analysis in selected advanced reactor technologies were identified, and their impacts on important key figures of merit were assessed based on (1) a review of available advanced reactor specifications, (2) analysis of previous studies performed at ORNL and other research institutions, and (3) sensitivity and uncertainty analyses performed for six selected benchmarks—three experimental and three computational—to quantify the impacts of the identified key nuclear data on several key metrics. This report summarizes the key nuclear data—nominal data and nuclear data uncertainties— considering the most important nuclear reactions in the fuel and in various materials for the moderator, coolant, and structure of the considered advanced reactors.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Planning Near-Term Tasks for the Development of Advanced Reactor Mechanistic Source Term Modeling and Simulation Tools

To assist both the advanced reactor industry and U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) in the pursuit of reactor design and licensing, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program has established a mechanistic source term (MST) research project under the auspices of the Application Drivers technical area. The MST research project is a collaboration between Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) and Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) with a high-level objective to coordinate the development of comprehensive advanced reactor MST mod/sim capabilities to support risk-informed design and licensing decisions. As part of this effort, an MST mod/sim development pathway was developed in FY21, which outlines the high-level objectives and near-term tasks necessary to achieve the project objectives. Since publication of the development pathway, Argonne and SNL have been addressing the “near-term tasks” outlined in the report. The current provides a status update of the progress achieved in the fourth quarter of FY21. The report structure follows that of ref and is divided by advanced reactor type: High temperature gas reactor (HTGR), molten salt reactor (MSR) including fluoride salt-cooled high temperature reactor (FHR), and sodium fast reactor (SFR). Each section reviews the near-term tasks associated with the reactor type, current progress, and future plans. The near-term tasks associated with consequence modeling are reviewed in an upcoming work by SNL.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Applying Waveform Correlation and Waveform Template Metadata to Aftershocks in the Middle East to Reduce Analyst Workload

Organizations that monitor for underground nuclear explosive tests are interested in techniques that automatically characterize recurring events such as aftershocks to reduce the human analyst effort required to produce high-quality event bulletins. Waveform correlation is a technique that is effective in finding similar waveforms from repeating seismic events. In this study, we apply waveform correlation in combination with template event metadata to two aftershock sequences in the Middle East to seek corroborating detections from multiple stations in the International Monitoring System of the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization. We use waveform templates from stations that are within regional distance of aftershock sequences to detect subsequent events, then use template event metadata to discover what stations are likely to record corroborating arrival waveforms for recurring aftershock events at the same location, and develop additional waveform templates to seek corroborating detections. We evaluate the results with the goal of determining whether applying the method to aftershock events will improve the choice of waveform correlation detections that lead to bulletin-worthy events and reduction of analyst effort.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Applying Waveform Correlation and Waveform Template Metadata to Mining Blasts to Reduce Analyst Workload

Organizations that monitor for underground nuclear explosive tests are interested in techniques that automatically characterize mining blasts to reduce the human analyst effort required to produce high - quality event bulletins. Waveform correlation is effective in finding similar waveforms from repeating seismic events, including mining blasts. In this study we use waveform template event metadata to seek corroborating detections from multiple stations in the International Monitoring System of the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization. We build upon events detected in a prior waveform correlation study of mining blasts in two geographic regions, Wyoming and Scandinavia. Using a set of expert analyst-reviewed waveform correlation events that were declared to be true positive detections, we explore criteria for choosing the waveform correlation detections that are most likely to lead to bulletin-worthy events and reduction of analyst effort.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Fast Particle-Wave Interactions and Alfvén Eigenmodes in JET Tokamak Plasmas

This document serves as the closeout report of DOE Grant Award No. DE-FG02-99ER54563 with project period 1 April 2015 through 31 March 2020. The project comprised the international collaboration between MIT and EU scientists on the JET facility to improve our understanding of the physics of energetic particle-wave interactions by measuring the damping rates of stable Alfvén Eigenmodes (AEs) and unstable energetic particle driven modes. More specifically, this project involved the continued participation of MIT, the Culham Centre for Fusion Energy, the Swiss Plasma Center, and theorists from various European laboratories and from UC Irvine. Past contributions from the University of São Paulo are gratefully acknowledged. The Alfvén Eigenmode Active Diagnostic (AEAD) on JET discharges was successfully upgraded in this period and has extracted physically useful information, in primarily deuterium plasma discharges. It is expected that such experiments would be continued during the DT campaign in CY 2021 to assess the damping rates of similar modes in the presence of alpha particles, a product of fusing burning plasma. Only JET would carry out such experiments in the near term in the world. It is important to note that this collaboration was continued under DOE Grant Award No. DE-SC0014264 from 1 April 2020 through the present. In this grant period, the AEAD was upgraded with a set of individual amplifiers for each of a set of six antennas in two toroidally opposite locations. These new amplifiers allowed targeted selection of the antennas’ toroidal spectrum for AEs of interest with toroidal mode number | n | ≤ 20. The resonant detection and measurement of the damping rates of AEs was obtained from magnetic probes that could be compared with theory and simulations. This is a key topic of investigation for ITER and all other next-step fusion experiments, where such modes will interact with energetic particles produced by fusion reactions (alpha particles), Neutral Beam Injection (NBI) and Ion Cyclotron Resonance Heating (ICRH). The majority of the observations during this period were of Toroidal Alfvén Eigenmodes (TAEs) as these are most commonly observed on JET; a number of measurements were made during dedicated TAE experiments. However, a new set of lower frequency band filters were procured with the goal of studying Geodesic Acoustic Modes (GAMs), Beta (Acoustic) AEs (BAE/BAAEs), and Reverse Shear AEs (RSAEs), also predicted by theory. Commissioning and optimizations were successfully completed in this period, and the diagnostic has been in operation during the more recent JET campaigns. Initial results have been obtained in dedicated TAE experiments and successfully compared to drift-kinetic theory. A wide range of theoretical studies have been undertaken in support of the upcoming JET campaigns experiments. To supplement the ongoing use of ideal MHD codes, such as MISHKA during the studies of TAEs, gyrokinetic simulations of low frequency AEs were performed in collaboration with UC Irvine. The Gyrokinetic Toroidal Code (GTC) was used to determine the structure, frequencies and stability of AEs in JET plasmas. Thus, a solid scientific foundation has been laid for future DT campaigns in JET in the 2021 operation period when the damping rates of relevant modes in the presence of alpha particles could be assessed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Hydropower Capital and O&M Costs: An Exploration of the FERC Form 1 Data

This report explores the potential for using responses from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s (FERC’s) “Electric Utility Annual Report,” also known as FERC Form 1, as a cost database for conventional and pumped storage hydropower (PSH). The report outlines the process used to compile an easy-to-access database from the original FERC Form 1 data and discusses the historical cost/performance data. The steps for developing the database include downloading the annual FoxPro files from the FERC website (FERC, 2020), reading them into an Excel format, and reconciling naming issues across years, repeated entries, and shared assets, among others. The cleaned and compiled Form 1 database is available on Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s (ORNL’s) HydroSource website. For this report, the compiled Form 1 database was linked to two other hydropower databases, the National Inventory of Dams and the ORNL Existing Hydropower Assets, that provide additional information on the characteristics and other features of plants in the Form 1 data. Explorations of the plant characteristics, performance, capital costs, and operation and maintenance (O&M) cost data in the combined database were presented separately for conventional hydropower and PSH projects. Form 1 has several advantages as a hydropower cost database. First, the cost data is reported directly by plant owners. Second, Form 1 provides cost breakdowns of capital and operating costs for large conventional and PSH plants enabling more detailed tracking of hydropower costs compared with typical total cost estimates. Third, although the Form 1 data is not reported by all operational hydropower plants in the United States, the available data represents a wide range of plant characteristics and a sizable proportion of the hydropower fleet (61% of PSH plants and 22% of conventional hydropower plants by capacity). The lower proportion of the conventional hydropower fleet is because Form 1 reporting requirements apply only to private utilities that meet given size thresholds, leaving out federally owned facilities and many smaller hydropower plants. Overall, the Form 1 cost database represents a unique, publicly available database on hydropower asset capital and O&M costs. This report leads to a compiled database for the reporting years 1994 to 2020 that helps resolve issues with accessibility and use of the FERC Form 1 data by hydropower plant owners, project developers, technology developers, and regulators.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Solar Radiation Research Laboratory (SRRL) Final Report: Fiscal Years 2019-2021

The Solar Radiation Research Laboratory (SRRL) at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is a world-leading solar calibration and measurement facility and maintains and disseminates the World Radiation Reference (essentially the W/m 2 ) for the United States, which is essential for traceable and accurate measurements of solar radiation at all solar generation facilities. SRRL operates two International Organization for Standardization (ISO)/International Electrotechincal Commission (IEC) 17025 calibration facilities that provide unique, high-quality calibrations to NREL and other U.S. Department of Energy laboratories. The Baseline Measurement System at SRRL provides a high-quality record of solar irradiance and surface meteorological conditions. SRRL capabilities are used to develop: improved methods for the calibration of solar radiometers; new standards through the ISO, the IEC, and ASTM International; models; advanced instrumentation and methods for operating solar measurement stations. The SRRL data sets are also critical for the validation of new models and data sets, such as the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Exploring Advanced Computational Tools and Techniques with Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning in Operating Nuclear Plants

This report presents the project Idaho National Laboratory conducted for Nuclear Regulatory Commission to explore the advanced computational tools and techniques, such as artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML), for operating nuclear plants. The report reviews the nuclear data sources, with the focus on the operating experience data, that could be applied by advanced computational tools and techniques. Plant-specific and generic (national and international) data from different sources are described. The report describes the relationships between statistics and AI/ML and then introduces the most widely used AI/ML algorithms in both supervised and unsupervised learning. The report reviews the recent applications of advanced computational tools and techniques in various fields of nuclear industry, such as reactor system design and analysis, plant operation and maintenance, and nuclear safety and risk analysis. Finally, the report presents the insights from the project on the potential applicability of AI/ML techniques in improving advanced computational capabilities, how the advanced tools and techniques could contribute to the understanding of safety and risk, and what information would be needed to provide meaningful insights to decision makers. The report also documents an NRC survey on the current state of commercial nuclear power operations relative to the use of AI and ML tools as well as the role of AI/ML tools in nuclear power operations was published by the NRC as in FRN NRC-2021-0048 in April 2021. A summary of the survey including the survey questions, survey participants, survey responses, and the conclusions and insights derived from the survey is provided in the report. Finally, the report investigates potential applications of using AI/ML in operating NPPs and advanced reactors (both advanced LWRs and advanced NLWRs) to improve nuclear plant safety and efficiency. Three main application fields are defined and discussed: (1) plant safety and security assessments; (2) plant degradation modeling, fault and accident diagnosis and prognosis; and (3) plant operation and maintenance efficiency improvement.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Industry-Average Performance for Components and Initiating Events at U.S. Commercial Nuclear Power Plants: 2020 Update

This report documents the quantitative results of the current industry-average performance for components and initiating events (IEs) at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs). It represents the third update of the original analysis in NUREG/CR-6928 with data through 2020. Continuous characterization and updating of current industry-average performance with the latest industry data available are important steps in maintaining up-to-date risk models. Typically, data from 1998–2002 were used in NUREG/CR-6928, data from 1998–2010 in the first update, data from 1998–2015 in the second update, and data from 2006–2020 in this update, although many IEs required longer periods for adequate characterization of frequencies in all these analyses. As with NUREG/CR-6928 and previous updates, four types of events are covered in this report: component unreliability (e.g., a pump that fails to start or fails to run), component or train unavailability resulting from test or maintenance outages, special event probabilities covering operational issues (e.g., pump restarts and injection valve re-openings during unplanned demands), and IE frequencies. Results (in the form of beta distributions for failure probabilities upon demand and gamma distributions for rates) are used as inputs to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission standardized plant analysis risk models covering U.S. commercial NPPs.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Research to Develop Flood Barrier Testing Strategies for Nuclear Power Plants

This report presents results of research performed by Idaho National Laboratory (INL) for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to identify and develop strategies for testing nuclear power plant (NPP) flood barriers. This research project began with a literature review that documented the results of previous NRC-funded research, work performed by other government agencies, reports generated by industry organizations, NRC licensee submittals, information from testing facilities, and information from commercial firms engaged in NPP decommissioning. This literature review was then used to develop a simplified flood protection categorization scheme and related glossaries. Using this categorization scheme and glossaries, a survey of currently used flood barriers was conducted, focusing on both permanent and temporary flood barriers. External flood barriers such as levees and berms were outside the scope of this survey. This research project also assessed the current state of NPP decommissioning for potential flood barrier harvesting opportunities, surveyed capabilities of domestic and international flood testing facilities, and explored technical challenges to harvesting and testing of flood barriers. Other factors that should be considered in developing flood barrier testing strategies were also explored and are documented in this report (e.g., selection of flood barriers for testing, codes and standards for flood barrier testing, potential alternatives to harvesting such as in-situ testing, testing performance criteria, and testing parameters).

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

MELCOR Accident Progression and Source Term Demonstration Calculations for a FHR

MELCOR is an integrated thermal hydraulics, accident progression, and source term code for reactor safety analysis that has been developed at Sandia National Laboratories for the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) since the early 1980s. Though MELCOR originated as a light water reactor (LWR) code, development and modernization efforts have expanded its application scope to include non-LWR reactor concepts. Current MELCOR development efforts include providing the NRC with the analytical capabilities to support regulatory readiness for licensing non-LWR technologies under Strategy 2 of the NRC's near- term Implementation Action Plans. Beginning with the Next Generation Nuclear Project (NGNP), MELCOR has undergone a range of enhancements to provide analytical capabilities for modeling the spectrum of advanced non-LWR concepts. This report describes the generic plant model developed to demonstrate MELCOR capabilities to perform fluoride-salt-cooled high-temperature reactor (FHR) safety evaluations. The generic plant model is based on publicly-available FHR design information. For plant aspects (e.g., reactor building leak rate and details of the cover-gas system) that are not described in the FHR references, the analysts made assumptions needed to construct a MELCOR full-plant model. The FHR model uses a TRi-structural ISOtropic (TRISO)-particle fuel pebble-bed reactor with a primary system rejecting heat to two coiled tube air heat ex changers. Three passive direct reactor auxiliary cooling systems provide heat removal to supplement or replace the emergency secondary system heat removal during accident conditions. Surrounding the reactor vessel is a low volume reactor cavity that insulates the reactor with fire bricks and thick concrete walls. A refractory reactor liner system provides water cooling to reduce the concrete wall temperatures. Example calculations are performed to show the plant response and MELCOR capabilities to characterize a range of accident conditions. The accidents selected for evaluation consider a range of degraded and failed modes of operation for key safety functions providing reactivity control, the primary system decay heat removal and also a piping leak of the line to the coolant drain tank.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

MELCOR Accident Progression and Source Term Demonstration Calculations for a Heat Pipe Reactor

MELCOR is an integrated thermal hydraulics, accident progression, and source term code for reactor safety analysis that has been developed at Sandia National Laboratories for the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) since the early 1980s. Though MELCOR originated as a light water reactor (LWR) code, development and modernization efforts have expanded its application scope to includ e non-LWR reactor concepts. Current MELCOR development efforts include providing the NRC with the analytical capabilities to support regulatory readiness for licensing non-LWR techno logies under Strategy 2 of the NRC?s near- term Implementation Action Plans. Beginning with the Next Generation Nuclear Project (NGNP), MELCOR has undergone a range of enha ncements to provide analytical capabilities for modeling the spectrum of advanced non-LWR concepts. This report describes the generic plant model developed to demonstrate MELCOR capabilities to perform heat pipe reactor (HPR) safety evaluations. The generic plant mode l is based on a publicly-available Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) Megapower design as modified in the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Design A description. For plant aspects (e.g., reactor building size and leak rate) that are not described in the LANL and INL references , the analysts made assumptions needed to construct a MELCOR full-plant model. The HP R uses high assay, low-enrichment uranium (HALEU) fuel with steel cladding that uses heat pipes to transfer heat to a secondary Brayton air cycle. The core region is surrounded by a stainless-steel shroud, alumina reflector, core barrel and boron carbide neutron shield. The reactor is secured inside a below-grade cavity, with the operating floor located above the cavity. Example calculations are performed to show the plant response and MELCOR capabilities to characterize a range of accident conditions. The accidents selected for evaluation consider a range of degraded and failed modes of operation for key safety functions providing re activity control, the primary and secondary system heat removal, and the effectiveness of th e confinement natural circulation flow into the reactor cavity (i.e., a flow blockage).

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗