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NASA NTRS2004

O VI Emission from the Interstellar Medium

This project's primary goal was to examine the Local Bubble, a large hot bubble surrounding the solar neighborhood. In order to do this, we observed the 1032 and 1038 A resonance line emission from O VI in the bubble and used the,results to comment on models for the Local Bubble and its embedded clouds. In order to maximize the signal to noise of our spectrum, we combined the awarded guest investigator observation with unpublished FUSE In Orbit Checkout observations. The resulting spectrum was sufficiently good as to enable us to place tight 2 sigma upper limits on the intensities of the 1032 and the 1038 A resonance lines. We also measured or placed upper limits on the other cosmic lines in the bandpass, including C III and C II. These are the first known ultraviolet emission line measurements and/or upper limits for the gas in the Local Bubble (as opposed to gas anywhere along long lines of sight). With the O VI upper limits, we were able to quantitatively evaluate competing theories for the origins of the Local Bubble. The upper limits are well below those expected in the Breitschwerdt model (which proposes that during its its early development, the Local Bubble rapidly expanded beyond its nascent cloud and, as a result, is now vastly underionized). The upper limits on the O VI resonance line doublet intensity and the measurement of the C III intensity, garnered from this project, combined with measurements of the O VI column density, garnered from another project, are so far below the predictions, that they make a good case for eliminating the Breitschwerdt model from the field of possibilities. Thus, instead of being vastly underionized, the Local Bubble is near ionizational equilibrium. In addition, the upper limits challenge the other well-known model for the Local Bubble. In that model, the Local Bubble was blown by a series of supernova explosions and winds and contains a myriad of evaporating clouds. The intensity of the O VI resonance line doublet predicted from models exceeds the observationally determined 2 sigma upper limits. The discrepancy prompts the exciting suggestion that there may be some astrophysics yet to be considered in standard hydrodynamic models. These measurements performed a second useful function. By subtract- ing them from the O VI intensity observed on long sight-lines through the Galactic halo and Local Bubble, we were able to estimate the intensity originating the Galactic halo.

Shelton, Robin L.↗

NASA NTRS2011

NASA's UAS NAS Access Project

The vision of the Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Integration in the National Airspace System (NAS) Project is "A global transportation system which allows routine access for all classes of UAS." The goal of the UAS Integration in the NAS Project is to "contribute capabilities that reduce technical barriers related to the safety and operational challenges associated with enabling routine UAS access to the NAS." This goal will be accomplished through a two-phased approach based on development of system-level integration of key concepts, technologies and/or procedures, and demonstrations of integrated capabilities in an operationally relevant environment. Phase 1 will take place the first two years of the Project and Phase 2 will take place the following three years. The Phase 1 and 2 technical objectives are: Phase 1: Developing a gap analysis between current state of the art and the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) UAS Concept of Operations . Validating the key technical areas identified by this Project . Conducting initial modeling, simulation, and flight testing activities . Completing Sub-project Phase 1 deliverables (spectrum requirements, comparative analysis of certification methodologies, etc.) and continue Phase 2 preparation (infrastructure, tools, etc.) Phase 2: Providing regulators with a methodology for developing airworthiness requirements for UAS, and data to support development of certifications standards and regulatory guidance . Providing systems-level, integrated testing of concepts and/or capabilities that address barriers to routine access to the NAS. Through simulation and flight testing, address issues including separation assurance, communications requirements, and human systems integration in operationally relevant environments. The UAS in the NAS Project will demonstrate solutions in specific technology areas, which will address operational/safety issues related to UAS access to the NAS. Since the resource allocation for this Project is limited ($150M over the five years), the focus is on reducing the technical barriers where NASA has unique capabilities. As a result, technical areas, such as Sense and Avoid (SAA) and beyond line of sight command and control will not be addressed. While these are critical barriers to UAS access, currently, there is a great deal of global effort being exercised to address these challenge areas. Instead, specific technology development in areas where there is certainty that NASA can advance the research to high technology readiness levels will be the Project's focus. Specific sub-projects include Separation Assurance, Human Systems Integration, Communications, Certification, and Integrated Test and Evaluation. Each sub-project will transfer technologies to relevant key stakeholders and decision makers through research transition teams, technology forums, or through other analogous means.

Johnson, Charles W.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Comparison of SUSY spectra generators for natural SUSY and string landscape predictions

Models of natural supersymmetry give rise to a weak scale m weak ~ m W,Z,h ~ 100 GeV without any (implausible) finetuning of independent contributions to the weak scale. These models, which exhibit radiatively driven naturalness (RNS), are expected to arise from statistical analysis of the string landscape wherein large soft terms are favored, but subject to a not-too-large value of the derived weak scale in each pocket universe of the greater multiverse. The string landscape picture then predicts, using the Isajet SUSY spectra generator Isasugra, a statistical peak at m h ~ 125 GeV with sparticles generally beyond current LHC search limits. In this paper, we investigate how well these conclusions hold up using other popular spectra generators: SOFTSUSY, SPHENO and SUSPECT (SSS). We built a computer code DEW4SLHA which operates on SUSY Les Houches Accord files to calculate the associated electroweak naturalness measure Δ EW . The SSS generators tend to yield a Higgs mass peak ~125–127 GeV with a superparticle mass spectra rather similar to that generated by Isasugra. In an Appendix, we include loop corrections to Δ EW in a more standard notation.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

NASA NTRS2021

Trend Detection of Atmospheric Time Series: Incorporating Appropriate Uncertainty Estimates and Handling Extreme Events

This paper is aimed at atmospheric scientists without formal training in statistical theory. Its goal is to, 1) provide a critical review of the rationale for trend analysis of the time series typically encountered in the field of atmospheric chemistry; 2) describe a range of trend-detection methods; and 3) demonstrate effective means of conveying the results to a general audience. Trend detections in atmospheric chemical composition data are often challenged by a variety of sources of uncertainty, which often behave differently to other environmental phenomena such as temperature, precipitation rate, or stream flow, and may require specific methods depending on the science questions to be addressed. Some sources of uncertainty can be explicitly included in the model specification, such as autocorrelation and seasonality, but some inherent uncertainties are difficult to quantify, such as data heterogeneity and measurement uncertainty due to the combined effect of short- and long-term natural variability, instrumental stability, and aggregation of data from sparse sampling frequency. Failure to account for these uncertainties might result in an inappropriate inference of the trends and their estimation errors. On the other hand, the variation in extreme events might be interesting for different scientific questions, for example, the frequency of extremely high surface ozone events and their relevance to human health. In this study we aim to, 1) review trend detection methods for addressing different levels of data complexity in different chemical species; 2) demonstrate that the incorporation of scientifically interpretable covariates can outperform pure numerical curve fitting techniques in terms of uncertainty reduction and improved predictability; 3) illustrate the study of trends based on extreme quantiles that can provide insight beyond standard mean or median based trend estimates; and 4) present an advanced method of quantifying regional trends based on the inter-site correlations of multi-site data. All demonstrations are based on time series of observed trace gases relevant to atmospheric chemistry, but the methods can be applied to other environmental data sets.

Trace gas↗

DOE OSTI2025

Nanotomography for Quantitative 3D Particle Reconstruction

Particulates are ubiquitous across fuel cycle operations and carry critical information about particle formation, processing, and potential proliferation-related activities. Traditional analytical techniques, including micro-Raman spectroscopy and standard electron microscopy, are often limited in spatial resolution or dimensionality, particularly when used to examine metallic or submicron-scale features. Understanding particle morphology, phase distribution, and internal porosity is essential for constraining formation conditions, thermodynamic environments, and material transport behavior. In this report, we demonstrate the application of plasma focused ion beam nanotomography to reconstruct micron-scale particulates at nanoscale resolution. Using high-resolution backscattered electron imaging and Avizo software, we obtained 3D reconstructions that enabled quantitative analysis of particle morphology, phase composition, and internal voids. Representative examples include a Ta particle with a large central void and a composite particle with embedded tetrahedral crystalline structures. These reconstructions reveal structural and compositional details that are inaccessible through conventional 2D imaging. The results demonstrate that nanotomography provides both qualitative and quantitative insights into particle formation and behavior. Using nanotomography, porosity and phase distributions can be quantified to inform models of particle density, transport, and solidification conditions. Beyond technical insights, the workflow developed here establishes a transferable capability for analyzing heterogeneous particles and has potential applications in bulk materials studies via x-ray computed tomography or other volumetric imaging modalities. Ongoing efforts are focused on optimizing the workflow to process multiple particles simultaneously, increasing throughput and statistical robustness. Overall, this work illustrates the power of nanotomography as a tool for connecting particulate morphology to formation mechanisms, composition, and transport, thereby strengthening analytical capabilities for nuclear forensics, fuel cycle analysis, and related scientific investigations.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Lighting up the LHC with Dark Matter

We show that simultaneously explaining dark matter and the observed value of the muon’s magnetic dipole moment may lead to yet unexplored photon signals at the LHC. We consider the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model with electroweakino masses in the few-to-several hundred GeV range, and opposite sign of the Bino mass parameter with respect to both the Higgsino and Wino mass parameters. In such region of parameter space, the spin-independent elastic scattering cross section of a Bino-like dark matter candidate in direct detection experiment is suppressed by cancellations between different amplitudes, and the observed dark matter relic density can be realized via Bino-Wino co-annihilation. Moreover, the observed value of the muon’s magnetic dipole moment can be explained by Bino and Wino loop contributions. Interestingly, “radiative” decays of Wino-like neutralinos into the lightest neutralino and a photon are enhanced, whereas decays into leptons are suppressed. While these decay patterns weaken the reach of multi-lepton searches at the LHC, the radiative decay opens a new window for probing dark matter at the LHC through the exploration of parameter space regions beyond those currently accessible. To complement the current electroweakino searches, we propose searching for a single (soft) photon plus missing transverse energy, accompanied by a hard initial state radiation jet.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

The SRG/eROSITA All-Sky Survey: Constraints on the structure growth from cluster number counts

Recent advancements in methods used in wide-area surveys have demonstrated the reliability of the number density of galaxy clusters as a viable tool for precision cosmology. Beyond testing the current cosmological paradigm, cluster number counts can also be used to investigate the discrepancies currently affecting cosmological measurements. In particular, cosmological studies based on cosmic shear and other large-scale structure probes routinely find a value for the amplitude of the fluctuations in the universe S 8 = σ 8 (Ω m /0.3) 0.5 smaller than the one inferred from the primary cosmic microwave background. In this work, we investigate this tension by measuring structure evolution across cosmic time as probed by the number counts of massive halos with the first SRG/eROSITA All-Sky Survey cluster catalog in the western Galactic hemisphere, complemented with the overlapping Dark Energy Survey Year-3, Kilo-Degree Survey, and Hyper Suprime-Cam data for weak lensing mass calibration, by implementing two different parameterizations and a model-agnostic method. In the first model, we measured the cosmic linear growth index as γ = 1.19 ± 0.21, which is in tension with the standard value of γ = 0.55 but in good statistical agreement with other large-scale structure probes. The second model is a phenomenological scenario in which we rescale the linear matter power spectrum at low redshift to investigate a potential reduction of structure formation, and it provided similar results. Finally, in a third strategy, we considered a standard ΛCDM cosmology, but we separated the cluster catalog into five redshift bins, measuring the cosmological parameters in each and inferring the evolution of the structure formation, finding hints of a reduction. Interestingly, the S 8 value inferred from the number counts of the cluster eRASS1 when we add a degree of freedom to the matter power spectrum recovers the value inferred by cosmic shear studies. The observed reduction in the growth rate or systematic uncertainties associated with various measurements may account for the discrepancy in the S 8 values suggested between cosmic shear probes and eROSITA cluster number counts and Planck CMB measurements.

cosmological parameters↗

NASA NTRS1999

Autonomous Navigation Using Celestial Objects

In the twenty-first century, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Enterprises envision frequent low-cost missions to explore the solar system, observe the universe, and study our planet. Satellite autonomy is a key technology required to reduce satellite operating costs. The Guidance, Navigation, and Control Center (GNCC) at the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) currently sponsors several initiatives associated with the development of advanced spacecraft systems to provide autonomous navigation and control. Autonomous navigation has the potential both to increase spacecraft navigation system performance and to reduce total mission cost. By eliminating the need for routine ground-based orbit determination and special tracking services, autonomous navigation can streamline spacecraft ground systems. Autonomous navigation products can be included in the science telemetry and forwarded directly to the scientific investigators. In addition, autonomous navigation products are available onboard to enable other autonomous capabilities, such as attitude control, maneuver planning and orbit control, and communications signal acquisition. Autonomous navigation is required to support advanced mission concepts such as satellite formation flying. GNCC has successfully developed high-accuracy autonomous navigation systems for near-Earth spacecraft using NASA's space and ground communications systems and the Global Positioning System (GPS). Recently, GNCC has expanded its autonomous navigation initiative to include satellite orbits that are beyond the regime in which use of GPS is possible. Currently, GNCC is assessing the feasibility of using standard spacecraft attitude sensors and communication components to provide autonomous navigation for missions including: libration point, gravity assist, high-Earth, and interplanetary orbits. The concept being evaluated uses a combination of star, Sun, and Earth sensor measurements along with forward-link Doppler measurements from the command link carrier to autonomously estimate the spacecraft's orbit and reference oscillator's frequency. To support autonomous attitude determination and control and maneuver planning and control, the orbit determination accuracy should be on the order of kilometers in position and centimeters per second in velocity. A less accurate solution (one hundred kilometers in position) could be used for acquisition purposes for command and science downloads. This paper provides performance results for both libration point orbiting and high Earth orbiting satellites as a function of sensor measurement accuracy, measurement types, measurement frequency, initial state errors, and dynamic modeling errors.

Folta, David↗

DOE OSTI2022

Probing parity violation with the four-point correlation function of BOSS galaxies

Parity-violating physics in the early universe can leave detectable traces in late-time observables. While vector- and tensor-type parity violation can be observed in the B -modes of the cosmic microwave background, scalar-type signatures are visible only in the four-point correlation function (4PCF) and beyond. This work presents a blind test for parity violation in the 4PCF of the baryon oscillation spectroscopic survey (BOSS) CMASS sample, considering galaxy separations in the range [20; 160]h -1 Mpc The parity-odd 4PCF contains no contributions from standard Λ CDM physics and can be efficiently measured using recently developed estimators. Data are analyzed using both a nonparametric rank test (comparing the BOSS 4PCFs to those of realistic simulations) and a compressed χ 2 analysis, with the former avoiding the assumption of a Gaussian likelihood. These find similar results, with the rank test giving a detection probability of 99.6% (2.9 σ). This provides significant evidence for parity violation, from either cosmological sources or systematics. We perform a number of systematic tests: although these do not reveal any observational artifacts, we cannot exclude the possibility that our detection is caused by the simulations not faithfully representing the statistical properties of the BOSS data. Our measurements can be used to constrain physical models of parity violation. As an example, we consider a coupling between the inflaton and a U (1) gauge field and place bounds on the latter’s energy density, which are several orders of magnitude stronger than those previously reported. Upcoming probes such as DESI and Euclid will reveal whether our detection of parity violation is due to new physics, and strengthen the bounds on a variety of models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Composite-dimensional topological codes with boundaries and defects

We introduce new algorithms and provide example constructions of stabilizer models for the gapped boundaries, domain walls, and 0D defects of Abelian composite-dimensional twisted quantum doubles. Using the physically intuitive concept of condensation, our algorithm explicitly describes how to construct the boundary and domain-wall stabilizers starting from the bulk model. This extends the utility of Pauli stabilizer models in describing nontranslationally invariant topological orders with gapped boundaries. To highlight this utility, we provide a series of examples, including a new family of quantum error-correcting codes where the double of ℤ4 is coupled to instances of the double semion (DS) phase. We discuss the codes' utility in the burgeoning area of quantum error correction with an emphasis on the interplay between deconfined anyons, logical operators, error rates, and decoding. We also augment our construction, built using algorithmic tools to describe the properties of explicit stabilizer layouts at the microscopic lattice level, with dimensional counting arguments and macroscopic-level constructions building on pants decompositions. The latter outlines how such codes' representation and design can be automated. Our results are validated by a series of error-correcting threshold calculations comparing our codes' performance with that of standard surface codes. To do so, we introduce a composite-dimensional belief-propagation decoder with ordered statistics that utilizes combination sweeps. Going beyond our worked-out examples, we expect our explicit step-by-step algorithms to pave the path for higher-dimensional codes to be discovered and implemented in near-future architectures that take advantage of various hardware platforms.

Mousa, Mohamad [Purdue University]↗

NASA NTRS2009

Evolution of Web Services in EOSDIS: Search and Order Metadata Registry (ECHO)

During 2005 through 2008, NASA defined and implemented a major evolutionary change in it Earth Observing system Data and Information System (EOSDIS) to modernize its capabilities. This implementation was based on a vision for 2015 developed during 2005. The EOSDIS 2015 Vision emphasizes increased end-to-end data system efficiency and operability; increased data usability; improved support for end users; and decreased operations costs. One key feature of the Evolution plan was achieving higher operational maturity (ingest, reconciliation, search and order, performance, error handling) for the NASA s Earth Observing System Clearinghouse (ECHO). The ECHO system is an operational metadata registry through which the scientific community can easily discover and exchange NASA's Earth science data and services. ECHO contains metadata for 2,726 data collections comprising over 87 million individual data granules and 34 million browse images, consisting of NASA s EOSDIS Data Centers and the United States Geological Survey's Landsat Project holdings. ECHO is a middleware component based on a Service Oriented Architecture (SOA). The system is comprised of a set of infrastructure services that enable the fundamental SOA functions: publish, discover, and access Earth science resources. It also provides additional services such as user management, data access control, and order management. The ECHO system has a data registry and a services registry. The data registry enables organizations to publish EOS and other Earth-science related data holdings to a common metadata model. These holdings are described through metadata in terms of datasets (types of data) and granules (specific data items of those types). ECHO also supports browse images, which provide a visual representation of the data. The published metadata can be mapped to and from existing standards (e.g., FGDC, ISO 19115). With ECHO, users can find the metadata stored in the data registry and then access the data either directly online or through a brokered order to the data archive organization. ECHO stores metadata from a variety of science disciplines and domains, including Climate Variability and Change, Carbon Cycle and Ecosystems, Earth Surface and Interior, Atmospheric Composition, Weather, and Water and Energy Cycle. ECHO also has a services registry for community-developed search services and data services. ECHO provides a platform for the publication, discovery, understanding and access to NASA s Earth Observation resources (data, service and clients). In their native state, these data, service and client resources are not necessarily targeted for use beyond their original mission. However, with the proper interoperability mechanisms, users of these resources can expand their value, by accessing, combining and applying them in unforeseen ways.

Mitchell, Andrew↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

RadLab: A Comprehensive Database and Graphical and Programming Interfaces for Space Radiation Data

RadLab, a component of the NASA Open Science Data Repository (OSDR), is a database of radiation measurements from multiple instruments and spacecraft that provides visual and programmatic interfaces for interrogation and retrieval of these data. The attributes of data available through RadLab include spacecraft, types of radiation sensing instruments, locations within the spacecraft (e.g. ISS modules), associated celestial bodies, trajectories, and spacecraft coordinates; the primary type of data is the absorbed dose rate, as well as flux and dose equivalent rate where available. The application programming interface (API) implements a request syntax for retrieval of timestamped data filtered by various combinations of such attributes; the graphical user interface (GUI) extends this functionality with visualizations (time series plots, comparison plots, geospatial visualizations) which provide easy means to assess data availability, iteratively refine search parameters, interactively inspect the data, and export target data subsets. Datasets are continuously being added to the RadLab database as part of the rolling release process. Investigators from multiple countries, including the US, Canada, Germany, Bulgaria, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Russia and the Czech Republic, have committed to provide data from their instruments in and beyond low Earth orbit. The current release contains datasets provided by US and international collaborators and includes readings from multiple modules of the ISS, the BioSentinel CubeSat, Chang’e 4, the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter, the ExoMars Orbiter, and the Curiosity rover. Datasets are associated with respective RadLab knowledgebase articles which include instrument descriptions and provide bibliographical references. RadLab aims to provide a comprehensive, dynamic compendium of space radiation data, enabling the scientific community to perform analyses of data from multiple detectors and to determine the radiation environment of research missions and experiments. Some of its applications include inference of absorbed radiation dose for NASA GeneLab payloads, and training predictive models as part of the 2024 FDL-X challenge. The platform is actively expanding and seeking additional data, with plans to also cover past (e.g. Shuttle, Mir) and future (e.g. Artemis) missions. The RadLab Working Group has been created to aid in this process as well as to foster collaborations among data contributors and users, to develop standards for data harmonization, and to guide the development of the platform, with the goal to establish the use of RadLab in space radiation research and to advance our understanding of the radiation environment in outer space.

Kirill Grigorev↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

RadLab: A Comprehensive Database and Graphical and Programming Interfaces for Space Radiation Data

Kirill Grigorev↗

DOE OSTI2024

Testing lepton flavor universality at future Z factories

As one of the hypothetical principles in the Standard Model (SM), lepton flavor universality (LFU) should be tested with a precision as high as possible such that the physics violating this principle can be fully examined. The run of a Z factory at a future e + e − collider, such as the Circular Electron-Positron Collider or Future Circular Collider (electron/positron), provides a great opportunity to perform this task because of the large statistics and high reconstruction efficiencies for b hadrons at the Z pole. In this paper, we present a systematic study on the LFU test in future Z factories. The goal is threefold. First, we study the sensitivities of measuring the LFU-violating observables of b → c τ ν , i.e., R J / ψ , R D s , R D s * , and R Λ c , where τ decays muonically. For this purpose, we develop the strategies for event reconstruction, based on the track information significantly. Second, we explore the sensitivity robustness against detector performance and its potential improvement with the message of event shape or beyond the b -hadron decays. A picture is drawn on the variation of analysis sensitivities with the detector tracking resolution and soft photon detectability, and the impact of Fox-Wolfram moments is studied on the measurement of relevant flavor events. Finally, we interpret the projected sensitivities in the SM effective field theory, by combining the LFU tests of b → c τ ν and the measurements of b → s τ + τ − and b → s ν ¯ ν . We show that the limits on the LFU-violating energy scale can be pushed up to ∼ O ( 10 ) TeV for ≲ O ( 1 ) Wilson coefficients at Tera- Z . Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

NASA NTRS2017

UAS Satellite Earth Station Emission Limits for Terrestrial System Interference Protection

Unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) will have a major impact on future aviation. Medium and large UA operating at altitudes above 3000 feet will require access to non-segregated, that is, controlled airspace. In order for unmanned aircraft to be integrated into the airspace and operate with other commercial aircraft, a very reliable command and control (C2, a. k. a. control and non-payload communications, (CNPC)) link is required. For operations covering large distances or over remote locations, a beyond-line-of-sight (BLOS) CNPC link would need to be implemented through satellite. Significant progress has taken place on several fronts to advance the integration of UAS into controlled airspace, including the recent completion of Minimum Operational Performance Standards (MOPS) for terrestrial line-of-sight (LOS) UAS command and control (C2) links. The development of MOPS for beyond line-of-sight C2 satellite communication links is underway. Meanwhile the allocation of spectrum for UAS C2 by the International Telecommunications Union Radiocommunication Sector (ITU-R) has also progressed. Spectrum for LOS C2 was allocated at the 2012 World Radiocommunication Conference (WRC-12), and for BLOS C2 an allocation was made at WRC-15, under WRC-15 Resolution 155. Resolution 155, however, does not come into effect until several other actions have been completed. One of these required actions is the identification of a power flux density (pfd) limit on the emissions of UAS Ku-Band satellite communications transmitters reaching the ground. The pfd limit is intended to protect terrestrial systems from harmful interference. WRC-19 is expected to finalize the pfd limit. In preparation for WRC-19, analyses of the required pfd limit are on-going, and supporting activities such as propagation modeling are also planned. This paper provides the status of these activities.

radiofrequency spectrum↗

NASA NTRS2017

Coupled Data Assimilation for Integrated Earth System Analysis and Prediction: Goals, Challenges, and Recommendations

The purpose of this report is to identify fundamental issues for coupled data assimilation (CDA), such as gaps in science and limitations in forecasting systems, in order to provide guidance to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on how to facilitate more rapid progress internationally. Coupled Earth system modeling provides the opportunity to extend skillful atmospheric forecasts beyond the traditional two-week barrier by extracting skill from low-frequency state components such as the land, ocean, and sea ice. More generally, coupled models are needed to support seamless prediction systems that span timescales from weather, subseasonal to seasonal (S2S), multiyear, and decadal. Therefore, initialization methods are needed for coupled Earth system models, either applied to each individual component (called Weakly Coupled Data Assimilation - WCDA) or applied the coupled Earth system model as a whole (called Strongly Coupled Data Assimilation - SCDA). Using CDA, in which model forecasts and potentially the state estimation are performed jointly, each model domain benefits from observations in other domains either directly using error covariance information known at the time of the analysis (SCDA), or indirectly through flux interactions at the model boundaries (WCDA). Because the non-atmospheric domains are generally under-observed compared to the atmosphere, CDA provides a significant advantage over single-domain analyses. Next, we provide a synopsis of goals, challenges, and recommendations to advance CDA: Goals: (a) Extend predictive skill beyond the current capability of NWP (e.g. as demonstrated by improving forecast skill scores), (b) produce physically consistent initial conditions for coupled numerical prediction systems and reanalyses (including consistent fluxes at the domain interfaces), (c) make best use of existing observations by allowing observations from each domain to influence and improve the full earth system analysis, (d) develop a robust observation-based identification and understanding of mechanisms that determine the variability of weather and climate, (e) identify critical weaknesses in coupled models and the earth observing system, (f) generate full-field estimates of unobserved or sparsely observed variables, (g) improve the estimation of the external forcings causing changes to climate, (h) transition successes from idealized CDA experiments to real-world applications. Challenges: (a) Modeling at the interfaces between interacting components of coupled Earth system models may be inadequate for estimating uncertainty or error covariances between domains, (b) current data assimilation methods may be insufficient to simultaneously analyze domains containing multiple spatiotemporal scales of interest, (c) there is no standardization of observation data or their delivery systems across domains, (d) the size and complexity of many large-scale coupled Earth system models makes it is difficult to accurately represent uncertainty due to model parameters and coupling parameters, (e) model errors lead to local biases that can transfer between the different Earth system components and lead to coupled model biases and long-term model drift, (e) information propagation across model components with different spatiotemporal scales is extremely complicated, and must be improved in current coupled modeling frameworks, (h) there is insufficient knowledge on how to represent evolving errors in non-atmospheric model components (e.g. as sea ice, land and ocean) on the timescales of NWP.

CDA↗

DOE OSTI2025

Reducing model error using optimized galaxy selection: weak lensing cluster mass estimation

Galaxy clusters are one of the most powerful probes to study extensions of General Relativity and the Standard Cosmological Model. Upcoming surveys like the Vera Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time are expected to revolutionise the field, by enabling the analysis of cluster samples of unprecedented size and quality. To reach this era of high-precision cluster cosmology, the mitigation of sources of systematic error is crucial. A particularly important challenge is bias in cluster mass measurements induced by the mismodelling of photometric redshift estimates of source galaxies. This work proposes a method to optimise the source sample selection in cluster weak lensing analyses drawn from wide-field survey lensing catalogs to reduce the bias on reconstructed cluster masses. We use a combinatorial optimisation scheme and methods from variational inference to select galaxies in latent space to produce a probabilistic galaxy source sample catalog for highly accurate cluster mass estimation. We show that our method reduces the critical surface mass density Σ crit relative modelling bias on the 60-70% level, while maintaining up to 90% of galaxies. We highlight that our methodology has applications beyond cluster mass estimation as an approach to jointly combine galaxy selection and model inference under sources of systematics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2013

Three-Axis Attitude Estimation With a High-Bandwidth Angular Rate Sensor

A continuing challenge for modern instrument pointing control systems is to meet the increasingly stringent pointing performance requirements imposed by emerging advanced scientific, defense, and civilian payloads. Instruments such as adaptive optics telescopes, space interferometers, and optical communications make unprecedented demands on precision pointing capabilities. A cost-effective method was developed for increasing the pointing performance for this class of NASA applications. The solution was to develop an attitude estimator that fuses star tracker and gyro measurements with a high-bandwidth angular rotation sensor (ARS). An ARS is a rate sensor whose bandwidth extends well beyond that of the gyro, typically up to 1,000 Hz or higher. The most promising ARS sensor technology is based on a magnetohydrodynamic concept, and has recently become available commercially. The key idea is that the sensor fusion of the star tracker, gyro, and ARS provides a high-bandwidth attitude estimate suitable for supporting pointing control with a fast-steering mirror or other type of tip/tilt correction for increased performance. The ARS is relatively inexpensive and can be bolted directly next to the gyro and star tracker on the spacecraft bus. The high-bandwidth attitude estimator fuses an ARS sensor with a standard three-axis suite comprised of a gyro and star tracker. The estimation architecture is based on a dual-complementary filter (DCF) structure. The DCF takes a frequency- weighted combination of the sensors such that each sensor is most heavily weighted in a frequency region where it has the lowest noise. An important property of the DCF is that it avoids the need to model disturbance torques in the filter mechanization. This is important because the disturbance torques are generally not known in applications. This property represents an advantage over the prior art because it overcomes a weakness of the Kalman filter that arises when fusing more than one rate measurement. An additional advantage over prior art is that, computationally, the DCF requires significantly fewer real-time calculations than a Kalman filter formulation. There are essentially two reasons for this: the DCF state is not augmented with angular rate, and measurement updates occur at the slower gyro rate instead of the faster ARS sampling rate. Finally, the DCF has a simple and compelling architecture. The DCF is exactly equivalent to flying two identical attitude observers, one at low rate and one at high rate. These attitude observers are exactly of the form currently flown on typical three-axis spacecraft.

Bayard, David S.↗