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Energy Snapshot - Bonaire

This profile provides a snapshot of the energy landscape of Bonaire, a special municipality of the Kingdom of the Netherlands located off the coast of Venezuela. Bonaire’s utility rates are approximately $0.22 per kilowatt-hour (kWh), plus fixed use monthly charges that are based upon connection capacity.

44 EE - Strategic Programs, Energy Transition Init↗

EERC Final Topical Report – Findings on Subtask 3.2 – Produced Water Management Through Geologic Homogenization, Conditions, and Reuse

The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) was awarded a contract by the North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC) Oil and Gas Research Program (NDIC No. G-051-101) to conduct a study on the recycling of water used in oil and gas operations, also known as produced water, from oil- and gas-producing regions of North Dakota as directed by Section 19 of North Dakota House Bill 1014. This final report provides a compilation of results of the study, which include regulatory, scientific, technological, and feasibility methods and considerations associated with North Dakota produced water management. The report provides a synopsis of this project’s previously submitted produced water assessment report entitled “Produced Water Management and Recycling Options in North Dakota” (Energy & Environmental Research Center, 2020), with updated values provided as appropriate. The report provides the results from the investigation of a novel produced water management strategy, referred to as geologic homogenization, conditioning, and reuse (GHCR), which aims to use a subsurface geologic formation as a natural medium for managing produced water recycling and reuse. Water management is a significant technical and economic challenge for sustainable oil and gas production, and water volumes are intrinsically linked to oil production volumes. North Dakota oil production rose to over 1.5 million barrels (MMbbl)/day in 2019, and despite a downturn in oil price in early 2020, North Dakota oil production has recovered to 1.1 MMbbl/day as of August 2021. Bakken petroleum system development between 2008 and 2020 has resulted in a nearly fourfold increase in produced water volumes to 642 MMbbl/yr in 2020 after peaking at 740 MMbbl/yr in 2019 and a fivefold increase in saltwater disposal (SWD) volumes to 565 MMbbl/yr in 2020 after a peak of 682 MMbbl/yr in 2019. Produced water and SWD volumes are forecasted to double by 2030. SWD is the primary method of produced water management used in North Dakota, with approximately 95% of the SWD volume occurring through subsurface injection into sandstones of the Dakota Group (Dakota). Localized pressurization of the Dakota resulting from SWD and projected increases in produced water volumes could impact the economics of North Dakota oil production. As a result, there is an emerging need to pursue alternative produced water management approaches, including recycling and reuse. While produced water recycling is not yet widespread, commercial operators are making strides in overcoming the technical challenges of using high salinity produced water in completion operations (Marathon Oil, 2020). As water management continues to be a key focal point in companies’ environmental, social, and governance (ESG) initiatives, focus on water management, including recycling, will likely continue to increase. Laboratory column testing, field sample collection, geologic modeling and numerical simulation, and techno-economic analysis all indicate that GHCR could feasibly be implemented as a potential water management option. Laboratory column testing and field sample collection indicate that the Inyan Kara sandstone and native formation fluid are capable of homogenizing with the Bakken produced water to a point where the fluid composition appears to stabilize. Extracting that stabilized fluid could be considered homogeneous and capable of providing individual batches of hydraulic fracturing fluid. Numerical simulation results indicate that extraction of fluids from the Inyan Kara in a GHCR implementation scenario is capable of reducing formation pressure, which would help ease localized pressurization of the Inyan Kara and extend the available capacity for nearby existing SWD wells. Economic analysis indicates that there are scenarios where GHCR implementation can be a competitive or even lower-cost option than a conventional water management approach. Site-specific conditions will dictate the economic potential of GHCR, but potentially attractive sites for GHCR implementation will be those that are located above a pressurized zone of the Inyan Kara, need six or more Bakken infill wells, and face high costs for conventional SWD and/or freshwater. Based on the regulatory review, drilling into the Inyan Kara for SWD and to harness as a source water for industrial use have precedent in North Dakota, and a workable regulatory solution for GHCR seems likely. However, restrictions in the state regarding surface storage and transport of produced fluids may limit some activities, which will affect how GHCR could ultimately be implemented. In summary, this study reveals pursuing GHCR can be a viable approach to water management in North Dakota. The GHCR concept addresses some of the challenges that hinder the more traditional approaches to recycling in the industry. Furthermore, an assessment of the current landscape of water management within the state reveals the ongoing trend of increasing volumes of produced water and SWD. Projections reveal that the volumes of produced water that need to be managed are expected to double over the next decade (Energy & Environmental Research Center, 2020). With the continued development of the Bakken and continuing driving factors related to ESG initiatives, implementing a practice such as GHCR is a feasible approach to adding recycling of produced water to industry within the state. This subtask was cofunded through the EERC–U.S. Department of Energy Joint Program on Research and Development for Fossil Energy-Related Resources Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FE0024233. Nonfederal funding was provided by the North Dakota Industrial Commission Oil and Gas Research Program. References Energy & Environmental Research Center, 2020, Produced water management and recycling options in North Dakota: Final Report for North Dakota Legislative Management Energy Development and Transmission Committee and North Dakota Industrial Commission. Marathon Oil, 2020, Sustainability report: https://cdn.sanity.io/files/ghcnw9z2/website/ 91744eb6ef8fbe59505a911c6b8d2e8dd9a537fa.pdf?dl (accessed November 2021).

02 PETROLEUM↗

Using Cosmic Ray Muons to Assess Geological Characteristics in the Subsurface

Cosmic rays are energetic nuclei and elementary particles that originate from stars and intergalactic events. The interaction of these particles with the upper atmosphere produces a wide range of secondary particles that reach the surface of the earth, of which muons are the most prominent. With enough energy, muons can travel up to a few kilometers beneath the surface of the earth before being stopped completely. The terrestrial muon flux profile and associated zenith angle can be utilized to determine geological characteristics of a location (e.g., rock overburden and density) without having to use conventional methods such as boreholes. This work uses a low-power plastic scintillator-based muon detection system as a prototype for this non-destructive geological assay methodology. Four custom designed 102 cm x 51 cm x 5 cm plastic scintillation panels are used to realize two orthogonal detection planes. Optical photons from each scintillation panel are read using OnSemi J-Series 4x4 silicon photomultiplier (SiPM) arrays in conjunction with preamplifiers. Simultaneous triggers between detectors from two planes indicate a coincidence event which is recorded using the QuarkNet data acquisition system (DAQ) from Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory. A custom detector holder was designed to securely mount the detection system and rotate the panels along the zenith to collect data at variable angles. In order to quantify the systematic uncertainties associated with the detector, such as energy depositions and angular resolution of the detector design, a Monte Carlo (MC) simulation using Geant4 is being developed. Cosmic ray flux prediction will be included in the project by adding the CORSIKA MC code to the simulation toolchain. Simulated and experimental data will drive the development and validation of a reconstruction algorithm that, upon completion, is expected to predict average overburden and rock density. Extended detector exposure to muons can be used as a means to understand changes in the surrounding environment like rock porosity. On the experimental front, muons will initially be measured at the surface, establishing the baseline flux. This is followed by recording the muon flux at variable depths and zenith angles, where the data will be used by the reconstruction algorithm to predict the overburden. The result will be benchmarked against geological surveys. The measured flux data will also be used to benchmark independent and established models. Successful proof-of-concept demonstration of this technology can open doors for long term non-invasive geological monitoring. The detector design, experimental methodology, and the benchmarking efforts are detailed in this work.

Gadey, Harish Reddy↗

System Analysis Modeling and Intermodal Transportation for Commercial Spent Nuclear Fuel

The United States Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy is applying knowledge and understanding in the areas of systems level engineering, analysis, and decision making to better inform the waste management pathways for U.S. spent nuclear fuel (SNF). Currently there are 93 operating and 23 shutdown commercial nuclear reactors in the United States. SNF at most of these locations is being stored in spent fuel pools, dry storage, or both [1, 2]. This paper initially goes over the basics of the agent-based simulation tool known as the Next Generation System Analysis Model (NGSAM) that has the capability to model interaction and movements of individual components or groups like casks, railcars etc. The next section covers some of the methods implemented in the Java Transportation Operations Model (JTOM) to facilitate the movement of assemblies, casks, railcars etc. and the various intermodal transfer options. This section also covers the current cask loading and intermodal transfer times implemented in NGSAM. The last section goes over the proposed values for intermodal transportation, and cask transfer/loading operations.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Conceptual Spacer Design for the ATR GEN I Target for Pu-238 Production in the Advanced Test Reactor at Idaho National Laboratory

The initial target design used for Pu-238 production at Idaho National Laboratory was designed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory to optimize the production of Pu-238 in the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) and are referred to as HFIR GEN II targets. To take advantage of the Advanced Test Reactor’s (ATR) taller active core region a redesign of the HFIR GEN II targets was needed. It was proposed to stack two HFIR GEN II targets nose to nose about the core center line; however, this resulted in excessive neutron and photon heating in the pellets located in the center. This peak heating was not desirable so three alternative designs were investigated for the ATR GEN I targets. The python-based code, MCNP to ORIGEN2 in Python (MOPY), was used to calculate the heating rates after 40 days of irradiation to capture the effects of each configuration. The purpose of this paper is to document the details of these conceptual design calculations and comparisons for the ATR GEN I targets.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Discovery and Spectroscopic Confirmation of Aquarius III: A Low-mass Milky Way Satellite Galaxy

Abstract We present the discovery of Aquarius III, an ultra-faint Milky Way satellite galaxy identified in the second data release of the DECam Local Volume Exploration survey. Based on deeper follow-up imaging with DECam, we find that Aquarius III is a low-luminosity ( M V = − 2.5 − 0.5 + 0.3 ; L V = 850 − 260 + 380 L ⊙ ), extended ( r 1 / 2 = 41 − 8 + 9 pc) stellar system located in the outer halo ( D ⊙ = 85 ± 4 kpc). From medium-resolution Keck/DEIMOS spectroscopy, we identify 11 member stars and measure a mean heliocentric radial velocity of v sys = − 13.1 − 0.9 + 1.0 km s − 1 for the system and place an upper limit of σ v < 3.5 km s −1 ( σ v < 1.6 km s −1 ) on its velocity dispersion at the 95% (68%) credible level. Based on calcium-triplet metallicities of the six brightest red giant members, we find that Aquarius III is very metal-poor ([Fe/H]= − 2.61 ± 0.21) with a statistically significant metallicity spread ( σ [ Fe / H ] = 0.46 − 0.14 + 0.26 dex). We interpret this metallicity spread as strong evidence that the system is a dwarf galaxy as opposed to a star cluster. Combining our velocity measurement with Gaia proper motions, we find that Aquarius III is currently situated near its orbital pericenter in the outer halo ( r peri = 78 ± 7 kpc) and that it is plausibly on first infall onto the Milky Way. This orbital history likely precludes significant tidal disruption from the Galactic disk, notably unlike other satellites with comparably low velocity dispersion limits in the literature. Thus, if further velocity measurements confirm that its velocity dispersion is truly below σ v ≲ 2 km s −1 , Aquarius III may serve as a useful laboratory for probing galaxy formation physics in low-mass halos.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Adaptive machine learning for time-varying systems: low dimensional latent space tuning

Machine learning (ML) tools such as encoder-decoder convolutional neural networks (CNN) can represent incredibly complex nonlinear functions which map between combinations of images and scalars. For example, CNNs can be used to map combinations of accelerator parameters and images which are 2D projections of the 6D phase space distributions of charged particle beams as they are transported between various particle accelerator locations. Despite their strengths, applying ML to time-varying systems, or systems with shifting distributions, is an open problem, especially for large systems for which collecting new data for re-training is impractical or interrupts operations. Particle accelerators are one example of large time-varying systems for which collecting detailed training data requires lengthy dedicated beam measurements which may no longer be available during regular operations. We present a novel method of adaptive ML for time-varying systems. Our approach is to map very high (N ≈ 100k) dimensional inputs (a combination of scalar parameters and images) into the low dimensional (N ≈ 2) latent space at the output of the encoder section of an encoder-decoder CNN. We then actively tune the low dimensional latent space-based representation of complex system dynamics by the addition of an adaptively tuned feedback vector directly before the decoder sections builds back up to our image-based high-dimensional phase space density representations. This method allows us to learn correlations within and to quickly tune the characteristics of incredibly large parameter space systems and to track their evolution in real time based on feedback without massive new data sets for re-training. We demonstrate that our method can accurately predict and track the phase space of charged particle beams at various locations in a particle accelerator by adaptively adjusting in real-time while the unknown input beam distribution of the accelerator is changing in shape, charge, and offset and while the RF system of the accelerator itself is also changing in an unpredictable way. For FACET-II we demonstrate that such an approach has the potential to use transverse deflecting cavity and energy spread spectrum beam measurements to accurately predict 2D projections of the 6D phase space of the electron beam at the plasma wakefield acceleration interaction point where such diagnostics are unavailable.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

GPS-supported smartphone app-based integrated travel diary and time-use data collection: challenges and lessons learned

Travel behaviour and time-use data are two vital data sources for travel demand modelling. Travel behaviour is traditionally collected through household travel surveys, enhanced by using GPS-supported smartphone apps for passive location data collection. However, recruiting individuals willing to install these apps with sustained motivation to continue participation has been a critical challenge. This paper shares insights from a travel and time-use data collection procedure in Chicago and Sydney using the Fourstep app. Social media platforms were utilised as a solution to recruit participants in Chicago, where an international market research company failed to accomplish the task. This paper also discusses the challenges we faced and suggests ways to overcome them, offering valuable guidance to researchers in recruiting participants for smartphone application-based data collection. It also offers an analysis of travel, time-use, and travel-based multitasking behaviours based on the data collected from the Chicago and Sydney samples.

GPS-supported smartphone apps↗

Life Cycle Assessment for Closed-Loop Pumped Hydropower Energy Storage in the United States

The federal government has initiated an aggressive set of policies to achieve a net-zero carbon emission goal for the electricity sector by 2050. As a result, rapid growth in deployment of renewable energy technologies is expected. Most commercially mature technologies are temporally variable and do not provide grid inertia, while renewable technologies with high projected deployment have intermittent generation methods. Energy storage technologies are needed to both dispatch power on-demand and help provide the needed grid inertia. Pumped storage hydro (PSH) is a well-established technology that has gained renewed interest in recent years offering energy-balancing, grid stability, control of electrical network frequency, and large-scale storage capacity. For widespread adoption of PSH, more information is needed regarding its current life cycle environmental impacts. The objective of this study is to perform a full life cycle assessment (LCA) of new closed-loop PSH in the U.S. The functional unit for this study is 1 kWh of electrical power delivered to the grid and the base case project lifetime is 80 years. The life cycle inventory for this project accounts for all material and energy flows associated with the green-field construction, operation, maintenance, and decommissioning of a closed-loop PSH plant in the U.S. Collected data represents a range of potential PSH specifications and geographic locations coming from all prospective closed-loop PSH installations in the U.S. with data available. In addition, existing PSH installations are used to provide assumptions for inventory inputs. Results presented will include the global warming potential (GWP IPCC 100a) and Energy Return on Investment (EROI) from our base case (average PSH installation) as well as from scenario analyses and model sensitivity. These results will be compared to the impacts from existing PSH sites and alternate storage technologies. Methods align with the assumptions and guidelines put in place by previous PSH LCAs to ensure an accurate comparison with the results from this report.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,HYDRO ENERGY↗

Rapidly Deployable Acoustic Monitoring and Localization System Based on a Low-Cost Wave Buoy Platform

The primary objective of this project is to develop a cost-effective, fit-for-purpose environmental monitoring system, “NoiseSpotter®,” that characterizes, classifies, and provides accurate location information for anthropogenic and natural sounds in near real-time. NoiseSpotter was developed to support the evaluation of potential acoustic effects of marine energy (ME) projects. By utilizing a compact array of three acoustic particle motion sensors, NoiseSpotter triangulates individual bearings to provide sound source localization to within 5% accuracy, allowing the ability to discern ME device sounds relative to other confounding sounds in the environment, while providing location estimates to nearby marine mammals for environmental mitigation purposes. The ME industry needs proven solutions to meet environmental impact assessment needs. The NoiseSpotter® includes off-the-shelf, modular components that are easy to assemble and disassemble. Its acoustic particle motion sensors are commercially available and the data logger and real-time telemetry system is designed to be plug-and-play. The entire system is relatively compact and can be deployed from small vessels. NoiseSpotter’s near real-time capability enables operational monitoring of ME sounds, particularly during early stages of technology adoption to facilitate mitigation of potential noise effects. Widespread adoption of the technology for acoustic monitoring of ME devices requires that it be cost effective; hence the anticipated commercial cost of system hardware is $35,000. This project contributes to reducing barriers to ME testing through support of scientific research focused on reducing or mitigating environmental risks and lowering costs and complexity of environmental monitoring. This project has developed an acoustic monitoring system, NoiseSpotter® (U.S. Patent No. 11,156,734 and U.S. Registered Trademark No. 6,442,313), to detect and characterize baseline noise and sounds from ME operations and support geolocation of detected sounds. The intended outcome of the project is to mitigate concerns about the potential for ME device noise to alter marine mammal or fish behavior. NoiseSpotter® enables cost-effective, near real-time acoustic monitoring of an operational ME device relative to ambient environmental noise and provides a technical basis for ME developers seeking to navigate the permitting process in an efficient manner.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Generation of realistic input parameters for simulating atmospheric point-spread functions at astronomical observatories

High-fidelity simulated astronomical images are an important tool in developing and measuring the performance of image-processing algorithms, particularly for high precision measurements of cosmic shear – correlated distortions of images of distant galaxies due to weak gravitational lensing caused by the large-scale mass distribution in the Universe. For unbiased measurements of cosmic shear, all other sources of correlated image distortions must be modeled or removed. One such source is the correlated blurring of images due to optical turbulence in the atmosphere, which dominates the point-spread function (PSF) for ground-based instruments. In this work, we leverage data from weather forecasting models to produce wind speeds and directions, and turbulence parameters, that are realistically correlated with altitude. To study the resulting correlations in the size and shape of the PSF, we generate simulated images of the PSF across a ~10 square-degree field of view – the size of the camera focal plane for the Vera C. Rubin Observatory in Chile – using weather data and historical seeing for a geographic location near the Observatory. We make quantitative predictions for two-point correlation functions (2PCF) that are used in analyses of cosmic shear. We observe a strong anisotropy in the two-dimensional 2PCF, which is expected based on observations in real images, and study the dependence of the orientation of the anisotropy on dominant wind directions near the ground and at higher altitudes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

aphBO-2GP-3B: a budgeted asynchronous parallel multi-acquisition functions for constrained Bayesian optimization on high-performing computing architecture

High-fidelity complex engineering simulations are often predictive, but also computationally expensive and often require substantial computational efforts. The mitigation of computational burden is usually enabled through parallelism in high-performance cluster (HPC) architecture. Optimization problems associated with these applications is a challenging problem due to the high computational cost of the high-fidelity simulations. In this paper, an asynchronous parallel constrained Bayesian optimization method is proposed to efficiently solve the computationally expensive simulation-based optimization problems on the HPC platform, with a budgeted computational resource, where the maximum number of simulations is a constant. The advantage of this method are three-fold. Firstly, the efficiency of the Bayesian optimization is improved, where multiple input locations are evaluated parallel in an asynchronous manner to accelerate the optimization convergence with respect to physical runtime. This efficiency feature is further improved so that when each of the inputs is finished, another input is queried without waiting for the whole batch to complete. Second, the proposed method can handle both known and unknown constraints. Third, the proposed method samples several acquisition functions based on their rewards using a modified GP-Hedge scheme. The proposed framework is termed aphBO-2GP-3B, which means asynchronous parallel hedge Bayesian optimization with two Gaussian processes and three batches. The numerical performance of the proposed framework aphBO-2GP-3B is comprehensively benchmarked using 16 numerical examples, compared against other 6 parallel Bayesian optimization variants and 1 parallel Monte Carlo as a baseline, and demonstrated using two real-world high-fidelity expensive industrial applications. The first engineering application is based on finite element analysis (FEA) and the second one is based on computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

GalaxyFlow: upsampling hydrodynamical simulations for realistic mock stellar catalogues

ABSTRACT Cosmological N-body simulations of galaxies operate at the level of ‘star particles’ with a mass resolution on the scale of thousands of solar masses. Turning these simulations into stellar mock catalogues requires ‘upsampling’ the star particles into individual stars following the same phase-space density. In this paper, we introduce two new upsampling methods. First, we describe GalaxyFlow, a sophisticated upsampling method that utilizes normalizing flows to both estimate the stellar phase-space density and sample from it. Secondly, we improve on existing upsamplers based on adaptive kernel density estimation (KDE), using maximum likelihood estimation to fine-tune the bandwidth for such algorithms in a way that improves both the density estimation accuracy and upsampling results. We demonstrate our upsampling techniques on a neighbourhood of the Solar location in two simulated galaxies: Auriga 6 and h277. Both yield smooth stellar distributions that closely resemble the stellar densities seen in the Gaia DR3 catalogue. Furthermore, we introduce a novel multimodel classifier test to compare the accuracy of different upsampling methods quantitatively. This test confirms that GalaxyFlow more accurately estimates the density of the underlying star particles than methods based on KDE, at the cost of being more computationally intensive.

Lim, Sung Hak (ORCID:0000000330981092)↗

Automatic Detection and Classification of Radio Galaxy Images by Deep Learning

Abstract Surveys conducted by radio astronomy observatories, such as SKA, MeerKAT, Very Large Array, and ASKAP, have generated massive astronomical images containing radio galaxies (RGs). This generation of massive RG images has imposed strict requirements on the detection and classification of RGs and makes manual classification and detection increasingly difficult, even impossible. Rapid classification and detection of images of different types of RGs help astronomers make full use of the observed astronomical image data for further processing and analysis. The classification of FRI and FRII is relatively easy, and there are more studies and literature on them at present, but FR0 and FRI are similar, so it is difficult to distinguish them. It poses a greater challenge to image processing. At present, deep learning has made breakthrough progress in the field of image analysis and processing and has preliminary applications in astronomical data processing. Compared with classification algorithms that can only classify galaxies, object detection algorithms that can locate and classify RGs simultaneously are preferred. In target detection algorithms, YOLOv5 has outstanding advantages in the classification and positioning of small targets. Therefore, we propose a deep-learning method based on an improved YOLOv5 object detection model that makes full use of multisource data, combining FIRST radio with SDSS optical image data, and realizes the automatic detection of FR0, FRI, and FRII RGs. The innovation of our work is that on the basis of the original YOLOv5 object detection model, we introduce the SE Net attention mechanism, increase the number of preset anchors, adjust the network structure of the feature pyramid, and modify the network structure, thereby allowing our model to demonstrate galaxy classification and position detection effects. Our improved model produces satisfactory results, as evidenced by experiments. Overall, the mean average precision (mAP@0.5) of our improved model on the test set reaches 89.4%, which can determine the position (R.A. and decl.) and automatically detect and classify FR0s, FRIs, and FRIIs. Our work contributes to astronomy because it allows astronomers to locate FR0, FRI, and FRII galaxies in a relatively short time and can be further combined with other astronomically generated data to study the properties of these galaxies. The target detection model can also help astronomers find FR0s, FRIs, and FRIIs in future surveys and build a large-scale star RG catalog. Moreover, our work is also useful for the detection of other types of galaxies.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

A phenology- and trend-based approach for accurate mapping of sea-level driven coastal forest retreat

The rapid replacement of upland forest by encroaching marshland is a striking manifestation of global sea-level rise (SLR). Timely and high-resolution information on the location and extent of transition forest (the ecotone between upland forest and marsh where tree mortality due to seawater intrusion begins) is fundamental to understanding the processes and patterns of SLR-driven landscape reorganization. Despite its significance, accurate characterization of salt-impacted transition forest remains challenging due to the complexity of coastal environments, scarcity of ground-truth data, and the lack of effective mapping algorithms. Here we use the full archive of Landsat images between 1984 and 2021 to investigate the spectral, temporal, and phenological characteristics of transition forest, and develop a robust framework for monitoring coastal vegetation shifts in the mid-Atlantic U.S., a global SLR hotspot. Here, we found that transition forest exhibits strong negative NDVI trends and a deviation of land surface phenology from marsh and upland forest that distinguishes itself from surrounding vegetation. By integrating temporal trends and land surface phenology, our results demonstrate superior discrimination between marsh and coastal forests to existing map products (e.g. NOAA Coastal Change Analysis Program, National Land Cover Database) that allows a reliable identification of the coastal treeline. We applied the approach to map regional land cover in 1985, 2000 and 2020 (overall classification accuracy >92%) and found that the area of coastal forest decreased by 22.0% from 1985 to 2020, the majority of which transitioned to marshland (92.3%, 5.3 × 10 3 ha). Based upon fine-scale patterns of coastal transgression, we created a practical workflow for spatially explicit quantification of forest retreat rates. Concurrent with rising sea level, coastal forests migrated upslope from 0.63 (± 0.27) m above sea level in 1985 to 0.78 (± 0.32) m above sea level in 2020, and horizontal forest retreat rates accelerated from 3.1 (range of 0–36) m yr -1 during 1985–2000 to 4.7 (0–55) m yr -1 during 2001–2020. As SLR continues to accelerate, our study may serve as a scalable solution for consistent tracking of coastal landscape evolution that is urgently needed for sustainable forest and wetland management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impact of Wide-Area Oscillation Damping Control using Measurement-Driven Approach on System Separation - Saudi Grid Case Study

In any interconnected power grid, low-frequency oscillations is a major problem that can limit the power transfer capability and deteriorate power system security due to potential low-damped or even undamped oscillations. Synchronized measurements provided by PMUs enable the design and development of wide-area oscillation damping controllers (WADC) based on measurement-driven model to overcome the limitations of traditional controllers. This work focuses on the impact of a W ADC based on a measurement-driven approach on system separation for the Saudi Electricity Company (SEC) grid. A grid model is provided by SEC for this study. Modal analysis is performed to identify the oscillation mode of interest for which the controller is designed. Damping the dominant oscillation mode helps slightly to improve transient stability of the system. Considering bus frequency at different locations in SEC's system as the candidate observation signals, the optimal observation signal is chosen for the W ADC by using the FFT method. The system transfer function model is constructed by utilizing probing measurements. Then, the W ADC parameters are calculated based on the identified model. The performance of the designed W ADC is tested under different contingencies.

Altarjami, Ibrahim↗

Design and Analysis of the Open-Surface Slow Li Flow Divertor and Comparison to the Fast Li Flow Divertor

In the ongoing U.S. project, “Liquid Metal Plasma Facing Components,” sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy, efforts have been taken to develop two open-surface divertor designs for the Fusion Nuclear Science Facility using liquid lithium (Li) as a heat and particle flux removal media. The main focus of this study is the design and analysis of a slow (~1 mm/s) and thin (<1 mm) open-surface Li flow divertor with a Li-cooled substrate, which is then compared with an earlier design of a fast (up to 10 m/s) and thick (~0.5 cm) Li flow divertor with the substrate cooled with helium. The slow Li flow divertor design is based on the original LiWall concept developed at the Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory. Such a thin and slow Li layer can remove the particle flux by reducing the recycling flux, while the heat flux is removed mainly through the heat sink located beneath. In the present study, the heat sink is provided through a Li cooling flow inside the substrate of reduced activation ferritic/martensitic steel. By performing a multiphysics analysis with COMSOL that included liquid-metal magnetohydrodynamics (MHD), heat transfer, and structural mechanics, the impact of various factors on the divertor heat removal capability, such as Li flow velocity, MHD effects, and inlet velocity boundary condition, were examined. Based on comparisons of the two divertor designs, it was shown that the fast-flow divertor significantly outperformed the slow-flow design, whose heat removal capability was limited to ~1 to 2 MW/m2.

Jiang, Yuchen [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000283280284)↗

Drivers for the cracking of multilayer polyamide‐based backsheets in field photovoltaic modules: In‐depth degradation mapping analysis

Abstract There is a lack of understanding on the root cause of cracking of photovoltaic (PV) backsheets due to the challenge of multilayer characterization and the complicated failure modes at the submodule level. In this work, the in‐depth degradation mapping of field‐exposed polyamide‐based (PA‐based) PV module backsheets was studied, with the major focus on the identification of underlying drivers for the through cracking (in between the solar cells). PV modules were retrieved from five different locations, comprising a variety of climates, including humid subtropical, hot‐summer Mediterranean, tropical savanna climate, and hot arid. A suite of microscale cross‐sectional characterizations, including chemical changes, fluorescence intensity, and modulus as a function of distance from the air surface of the backsheet, was performed. Results showed more advanced signs of degradation of the inner layer than the outer layer in the cracking region. Increases in the modulus were identified as the major indicator for the cracking. Moreover, a rudimentary test by immersion in acetic acid, which forms during photodegradation of the ethylene‐vinyl acetate copolymer (EVA) encapsulant, showed the first‐time direct evidence that acetic acid can largely accelerate the chemical degradation and facilitate the cracking of PA inner layer. This study suggests that the field cracking of PA‐based backsheet can be attributed to the combined effects of chemical degradation and physical reorganization (chemi‐crystallization) under cyclic thermomechanical stresses. Therefore, it is important to consider effects of local microclimates and interlayer infection to understand the heterogeneous nature of backsheet failures.

Lyu, Yadong↗