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At least 1,297 records · Page 72

International Coordination and Support for SmallSat-enabled Space Weather Activities

Advances in space weather science and small satellite (SmallSat) technology have proceeded in parallel over the past two decades, but better communication and coordination is needed among the respective worldwide communities contributing to this rapid progress. We identify six areas where improved international coordination is especially desirable, including: (1) orbital debris mitigation; (2) spectrum management; (3) export control regulations; (4) access to timely and low-cost launch opportunities; (5) inclusive data policies; and (6) education. We argue the need for internationally coordinated policies and programs to promote the use of SmallSats for space weather research and forecasting while realizing maximum scientific and technical advances through the integration of these two increasingly important endeavors.

Teresa Nieves-Chinchilla↗

Cosmic GPS ionospheric sensing and space weather

As our civilization becomes more dependent on space based technologies, we become more vulnerable to conditions in space weather. Accurate space weather specification and forecasting require proper modeling which account for the coupling between the sun, the magnetosphere, the thermosphere, the ionosphere and the mesosphere.

GPS↗

Mineralogy and Space Weathering of Fine Fraction Recovered from Asteroid (162173) Ryugu

JAXA Hayabusa2 spacecraft brought back 5.4 g of samples from the near-Earth C-type asteroid (162173) Ryugu to Earth on December6th, 2020 [1]. The returned samples give us a unique opportunity to investigate material from the surface of a C-type asteroid that is expected to record space weathering. Here, we report the mineralogy of fine fraction of the Ryugu grains and a variation of their surface features related to space weathering.

T. Noguchi↗

Reevaluating How Charged Particles Cause Space Weathering on Airless Bodies

Many experiments have attempted to simulate how charged particles cause space weathering on airless bodies throughout the Solar System. Researchers have typically applied these experimental results by assuming that high laboratory fluxes cause the same effects as do the significantly lower fluxes found in nature. New work, however, shows that this assumption may often be invalid. In particular, experiments using charged particle fluences cm−2 without adequate steps to neutralize the targets risk causing dielectric breakdown, or “sparking”—a process that may affect some airless bodies. Consequently, it is critical to understand the laboratory conditions under which breakdown occurs, both to ensure that experiments properly simulate the effects of charged particles and to study the possibility that dielectric breakdown can, in some locations, contribute to space weathering.

A P Jordan↗

Modeling of Multiscale Solar Dynamics for Understanding Drivers of Space Weather

Understanding the solar dynamics is critical for improving our capabilities to forecast the evolution of space weather conditions. We take advantage of currently available computational capabilities to model solar dynamics from the deep interior to the corona and investigate mechanisms that may drive space weather conditions. The simulations are performed using the 3D radiative MHD code StellarBox. Comparison of synthetic spectroscopic observables obtained from numerical simulations and actual observations allows us to uncover physical processes associated with observed phenomena. To facilitate a transition from modeling short-term physical phenomena to developing a reliable forecast-oriented model, we suggest using the data assimilation approach. It allows us to cross-analyze dynamo model solutions and observations and to consider possible uncertainties and errors. In this presentation, we briefly summarize current multi-scale modeling capabilities and results and discuss ongoing developments to build a reliable physics-based forecast-oriented model of solar activity.

Irina N Kitiashvili↗

Modeling of Multiscale Solar Dynamics for Understanding Drivers of Space Weather

Understanding the solar dynamics is critical for improving our capabilities to forecast the evolution of space weather conditions. We take advantage of currently available computational capabilities to model solar dynamics from the deep interior to the corona and investigate mechanisms that may drive space weather conditions. The simulations are performed using the 3D radiative MHD code StellarBox. Comparison of synthetic spectroscopic observables obtained from numerical simulations and actual observations allows us to uncover physical processes associated with observed phenomena. To facilitate a transition from modeling short-term physical phenomena to developing a reliable forecast-oriented model, we suggest using the data assimilation approach. It allows us to cross-analyze dynamo model solutions and observations and to consider possible uncertainties and errors. In this presentation, we briefly summarize current multi-scale modeling capabilities and results and discuss ongoing developments to build a reliable physics-based forecast-oriented model of solar activity

Irina N Kitiashvili↗

Modeling of Multiscale Solar Dynamics for Understanding Drivers of Space Weather

Understanding the solar dynamics is critical for improving our capabilities to forecast the evolution of space weather conditions. We take advantage of currently available computational capabilities to model solar dynamics from the deep interior to the corona and investigate mechanisms that may drive space weather conditions. The simulations are performed using the 3D radiative MHD code StellarBox. Comparison of synthetic spectroscopic observables obtained from numerical simulations and actual observations allows us to uncover physical processes associated with observed phenomena. To facilitate a transition from modeling short-term physical phenomena to developing a reliable forecast-oriented model, we suggest using the data assimilation approach. It allows us to cross-analyze dynamo model solutions and observations and to consider possible uncertainties and errors. In this presentation, we briefly summarize current multi-scale modeling capabilities and results and discuss ongoing developments to build a reliable physics-based forecast-oriented model of solar activity

Irina N. Kitiashvili↗

Satellite Soil Moisture Data Assimilation Impacts on Modeling Weather Variables and Ozone in the Southeastern US – Part 2: Sensitivity to Dry-Deposition Parameterizations

Ozone (O3) dry deposition is a major O3 sink. As a follow-up study of Huang et al. (2021), we quantify the impact of satellite soil moisture (SM) on model representations of this process when different dry-deposition parameterizations are implemented, based on which the implications for interpreting O3 air pollution levels and assessing the O3 impacts on human and ecosystem health are provided. The SM data from NASA's Soil Moisture Active Passive mission are assimilated into the Noah-Multiparameterization (Noah-MP) land surface model within the NASA Land Information System framework, semicoupled with Weather Research and Forecasting model with online Chemistry (WRF-Chem) regional-scale simulations covering the southeastern US. Major changes in the modeling system used include enabling the dynamic vegetation option, adding the irrigation process, and updating the scheme for the surface exchange coefficient. Two dry-deposition schemes are implemented, i.e., the Wesely scheme and a “dynamic” scheme, in the latter of which dry-deposition parameterization is coupled with photosynthesis and vegetation dynamics. It is demonstrated that, when the dynamic scheme is applied, the simulated O3 dry-deposition velocities vd and their stomatal and cuticular portions, as well as the total O3 fluxes Ft, are larger overall; vd and Ft are 2–3 times more sensitive to the SM changes due to the data assimilation (DA). Further, through case studies at two forested sites with different soil types and hydrological regimes, we highlight that, applying the Community Land Model type of SM factor controlling stomatal resistance (i.e., β factor) scheme in replacement of the Noah-type β factor scheme reduced the v(d) sensitivity to SM changes by ∼75 % at one site, while it doubled this sensitivity at the other site. Referring to multiple evaluation datasets, which may be associated with variable extents of uncertainty, the model performance of vegetation, surface fluxes, weather, and surface O3 concentrations shows mixed responses to the DA, some of which display land cover dependency. Finally, using model-derived concentration- and flux-based policy-relevant O3 metrics as well as their matching exposure–response functions, the relative biomass/crop yield losses for several types of vegetation/crops are estimated to be within a wide range of 1 %–17 %. Their sensitivities to the model's dry-deposition scheme and the implementation of SM DA are discussed.

Min Huang↗

Constraining Oxygen and Sulfur Fugacity in Venus Weathering Experiments in the Glenn Extreme Environment Rig

Experimental efforts to understand chemical weathering of Venus surface rocks and minerals have been undertaken using a range of methods and conditions. A challenge with many of these experiments is measuring and maintaining the gas composition at the desired values because of the lack of instruments and sensors that can monitor gas compositions within vessels at Venus conditions. Thus, the oxygen fugacity, f O2 , and sulfur fugacity, f S2 , for Venus experiments are often not well known or constrained. Oxygen and sulfur fugacities dictate the stability of many minerals such as iron oxides and sulfides, and thus play a crucial role in weathering reactions.

A. R. Santos↗

Enhancing Autonomous Satellite Communication Systems with Weather-Aware Scheduling and Reconfiguration

NASA currently provides communication support to over 100 satellite missions, and the agency is driving developments in Ka-band communications and network management automation to support additional future missions. At Ka-band frequencies, rain can degrade a communication link by more than 10 dB, which may be mitigated by agile scheduling and data rate control. We present a weather forecasting module for Ka-band communications that is intended to be used in an autonomous network management service that employs machine-to-machine scheduling systems for dynamic user access opportunities. Our forecasting module (NIMBUS) runs on AWS Cloud, consumes the freely and publicly available NOAA MRMS precipitation rate dataset (1km x 1km x 2-min), produces 30-minute Nowcasts using the pySTEPS algorithm, and publishes high level ground station specific link quality predictions. We evaluate two potential NIMBUS outputs, a binary classifier that predicts rain attenuation greater than 3 dB and a rain attenuation estimator, and we backtest these outputs using one year of power measurement data collected from observations of the geostationary ANIK F2 satellite’s Ka-band beacon. We report, with a 30-minute lead time, a binary classifier accuracy of 84% and an estimator RMSE of 1.67 dB. Additionally, we discuss how the NIMBUS module could be incorporated into a user-initiated service framework to enable weather-aware scheduling and reconfiguration. Operating a static link budget with minimal link margin can increase network operation costs by creating additional scheduling tasks due to failed packets, which may require human intervention and/or lead to inefficient asset utilization. The proposed system aims to increase throughput by reducing link margin, while mitigating increases in network operations costs by leveraging autonomous machine-to-machine scheduling, shortened prediction lead times, and advances in precipitation Nowcasting.

satellite communications↗

Tutorial: Models and Tools at the CCMC for Space Weather Research and Education

Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is hosting an expanding collection of space weather models covering the entire domain from the solar corona to the Earth’s lower atmosphere. The tutorial will present examples of CCMC models utilization in different research projects and demonstrate how CCMC tools and systems can be utilized in research and education. The presentation will also include highlights of International Space Weather Action Teams Initiatives and discuss opportunities for early career scientists. The presentation will be followed by hands-on demo of CCMC tools and systems.

Maria Kuznetsova↗

The Space Weather Follow On – Lagrange 1 Mission

The Space Weather Follow On – Lagrange 1 (SWFO-L1) Observatory will be situated in a Sun-Earth L1 Lissajous orbit with the goal of providing continuous measurements of the space environment and observations of the Sun’s outer atmosphere, and contributing to accurate forecasts of space weather disturbances. Unique to the SWFO-L1 mission are challenges of a rideshare launch, immoderate momentum management delta-V residuals, and spacecraft maneuver design considerations, resulting in specialized operational approach, management, and support.

cislunar↗

Complementarities of GEO and LEO IR Sounders for Numerical Weather Prediction in an OSSE Framework

Preparations are underway for the United States’ weather satellite program and the expected advancements in the coming decade. Among these changes is the launch of the proposed NOAA/NASA Geostationary eXtended Observations (GeoXO) Sounder (GXS), coordinated with international counterparts, to form a global ring of hyperspectral infrared (IR) sounders. Coincident with the progress of IR sounders from GEO platforms, the future of low Earth orbit (LEO) sounders is being re-envisioned after decades of beneficial impact in numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems. To address questions about the utility of the two platform types in concert, the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) framework was used to examine the roles of GEO and LEO sounders and their impact on forecast error reduction. Overall, inclusion of both types of platforms in the satellite program produces the largest forecast error reduction with LEO sounders having a strong impact on global skill and GEO sounders providing the most benefit on the scale of targeted regions.

Erica McGrath-Spangler↗

The Space Weather Follow On – Lagrange 1 Mission

The Space Weather Follow On – Lagrange 1 (SWFO-L1) Observatory will be situated in a Sun-Earth L1 Lissajous orbit with the goal of providing continuous measurements of the space environment and observations of the Sun’s outer atmosphere, and contributing to accurate forecasts of space weather disturbances. Unique to the SWFO-L1 mission are challenges of a rideshare launch, immoderate momentum management delta-V residuals, and spacecraft maneuver design considerations, resulting in specialized operational approach, management, and support.

Dynamical Systems↗

DOE Workshop; Pan-Gass Conference on the Representation of Atmospheric Processes in Weather and Climate Models

This is the first meeting of the whole new GEWEX (Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment) Atmospheric System Study (GASS) project that has been formed from the merger of the GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) Project and the GEWEX Atmospheric Boundary Layer Studies (GABLS). As such, this meeting will play a major role in energizing GEWEX work in the area of atmospheric parameterizations of clouds, convection, stable boundary layers, and aerosol-cloud interactions for the numerical models used for weather and climate projections at both global and regional scales. The representation of these processes in models is crucial to GEWEX goals of improved prediction of the energy and water cycles at both weather and climate timescales. This proposal seeks funds to be used to cover incidental and travel expenses for U.S.-based graduate students and early career scientists (i.e., within 5 years of receiving their highest degree). We anticipate using DOE funding to support 5-10 people. We will advertise the availability of these funds by providing a box to check for interested participants on the online workshop registration form. We will also send a note to our participants' mailing lists reminding them that the funds are available and asking senior scientists to encourage their more junior colleagues to participate. All meeting participants are encouraged to submit abstracts for oral or poster presentations. The science organizing committee (see below) will base funding decisions on the relevance and quality of these abstracts, with preference given to under-represented populations (especially women and minorities) and to early career scientists being actively mentored at the meeting (e.g. students or postdocs attending the meeting with their adviser).

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Transmission Line Ampacity Improvements of AltaLink Wind Plant Overhead Tie-Lines Using Weather-Based Dynamic Line Rating

Abstract—Overhead transmission lines (TLs) are conventionally given seasonal ratings based on conservative environmental assumptions. Such an approach often results in underutilization of the line ampacity as the worst conditions prevail only for a short period over a year/season. We presents dynamic line rating (DLR) as an enabling smart grid technology that adaptively computes ratings of TLs based on local weather conditions to utilize additional headroom of existing lines. In particular, general line ampacity state solver utilizes measured weather data for computing the real-time thermal rating of the TLs. The performance of the presented method is demonstrated from a field study of DLR technology implementation on four TL segments at AltaLink, Canada. The performance is evaluated and quantified by comparing the existing static and proposed dynamic line ratings, and the potential benefits of DLR for enhanced transmission assets utilization. For the given line segments, the proposed DLR results in real-time ratings above the seasonal static ratings for most of the time; up to 95.1% of the time, with a mean increase of 72% over static rating.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Proactive Operations and Investment Planning via Stochastic Optimization to Enhance Power Systems Extreme Weather Resilience

We present novel stochastic optimization models to improve power systems resilience to extreme weather events. We consider proactive redispatch, transmission line hardening, and transmission line capacity increases as alternatives for mitigating expected load shed due to extreme weather. Our model is based on linearized or "DC" optimal power flow, similar to models in widespread use by independent system operators (ISOs) and regional transmission operators (RTOs). Our computational experiments indicate that proactive redispatch alone can reduce the expected load shed by as much as 25% relative to standard economic dispatch. This resiliency enhancement strategy requires no capital investments and is implementable by ISOs and RTOs solely through operational adjustments. We additionally demonstrate that transmission line hardening and increases in transmission capacity can, in limited quantities, be effective strategies to further enhance power grid resiliency, although at significant capital investment cost. We perform a cross validation analysis to demonstrate the robustness of proposed recommendations. Our proposed model can be augmented to incorporate a variety of other operational and investment resilience strategies, or combination of such strategies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Multi-scale simulations of wind farm performance with complex terrain and weather events

Predicting the response of wind farms to local weather is necessary for optimal design and operation. In this work, simulation and analysis of a frontal passage through a utility scale wind farm is achieved for the first time using a seamless multi-scale modeling approach. A generalized actuator disk (GAD) wind turbine model is used to represent turbine wakes, and results are compared to novel radar observations during the frontal passage. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is employed with a nested grid setup that allows for coupling between multi-scale atmospheric conditions and turbine response. Starting with mesoscale forcing, the atmosphere is dynamically downscaled to the region of interest, where the interaction between turbulent flows and individual wind turbines is simulated with the GAD at10 m resolution. Several improvements are made to the GAD model to mimic realistic turbine operation, including a yawing capability and a power output calculation. Ultimately, the model is able to capture both the dynamics of the frontal passage and the turbine response; predictions show good agreement with observed turbine wake structure, velocity deficit, and power output after accounting for a phase shift in the mesoscale forcing. This study demonstrates the utility of the WRF-GAD framework for simulating wind farm performance under complex atmospheric conditions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗