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NASA NTRS2021

Modelled land use and land cover change emissions – a spatio-temporal comparison of different approaches

Quantifying the net carbon flux from land use and land cover changes (fLULCC) is critical for understanding the global carbon cycle and, hence, to support climate change mitigation. However, large-scale fLULCC is not directly measurable and has to be inferred from models instead, such as semi-empirical bookkeeping models and process-based dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). By definition, fLULCC estimates are not directly comparable between these two different model types. As an important example, DGVM-based fLULCC in the annual global carbon budgets is estimated under transient environmental forcing and includes the so-called loss of additional sink capacity (LASC). The LASC results from the impact of environmental changes on land carbon storage potential of managed land compared to potential vegetation and accumulates over time, which is not captured in bookkeeping models. The fLULCC from transient DGVM simulations, thus, strongly depends on the timing of land use and land cover changes mainly because LASC accumulation is cut off at the end of the simulated period. To estimate the LASC, the fLULCC from pre-industrial DGVM simulations, which is independent of changing environmental conditions, can be used. Additionally, DGVMs using constant present-day environmental forcing enable an approximation of bookkeeping estimates. Here, we analyse these three DGVM-derived fLULCC estimations (under transient, pre-industrial, and present-day forcing) for 12 models within 18 regions and quantify their differences as well as climate- and CO2-induced components and compare them to bookkeeping estimates. Averaged across the models, we find a global fLULCC (under transient conditions) of 2.0±0.6 PgC/yr for 2009–2018, of which ∼40 % are attributable to the LASC (0.8±0.3 PgC/yr). From 1850 onward, the fLULCC accumulated to 189±56 PgC with 40±15 PgC from the LASC. Around 1960, the accumulating nature of the LASC causes global transient fLULCC estimates to exceed estimates under present-day conditions, despite generally increased carbon stocks in the latter. Regional hotspots of high cumulative and annual LASC values are found in the USA, China, Brazil, equatorial Africa, and Southeast Asia, mainly due to deforestation for cropland. Distinct negative LASC estimates in Europe (early reforestation) and from 2000 onward in the Ukraine (recultivation of post-Soviet abandoned agricultural land), indicate that fLULCC estimates in these regions are lower in transient DGVM compared to bookkeeping approaches. Our study unravels the strong dependence of fLULCC estimates on the time a certain land use and land cover change event happened to occur and on the chosen time period for the forcing of environmental conditions in the underlying simulations. We argue for an approach that provides an accounting of the fLULCC that is more robust against these choices, for example by estimating a mean DGVM ensemble fLULCC and LASC for a defined reference period and homogeneous environmental changes (CO2 only).

land use and land cover change↗

DOE OSTI2024

Exploring the effect of ELM and code-coupling frequencies on plasma and material modeling of dynamic recycling in divertors

Abstract Integrated modeling of plasma-surface interactions provides a comprehensive and self-consistent description of the system, moving the field closer to developing predictive and design capabilities for plasma facing components. One such workflow, including descriptions for the scrape-off-layer plasma, ion-surface interactions and the sub-surface evolution, was previously used to address steady-state scenarios and has recently been extended to incorporate time-dependence and two-way information flow. The new model can address dynamic recycling in transient scenarios, such as the application presented in this paper: the evolution of W samples pre-damaged by helium and exposed to ELMy H-mode plasmas in the DIII-D DiMES. A first set of simulations explored the effect of ELM frequency. This study was discussed in detail in this conference’s proceedings and is summarized here. The 2nd set of simulations, which is the focus of this paper, explores the effect of code-coupling frequency. These simulations include initial SOLPS solutions converged to the inter-ELM state, ion impact energy ( E in ) and angles ( A in ) calculated by hPIC2, and an improved heat transfer description in Xolotl. The model predicts increases in particle fluxes and decreases in heat fluxes by 10%–20% with the coupling time-step. Compared with the first set of simulations, the less shallow impact angle leads to smaller reflection rates and significant D implantation. The higher fraction of implanted flux (and deeper), in particular during ELMs, increases the accumulated D content in the W near-surface region. Future expansion of the workflow includes coupling to hPIC2 and GITR to ensure accurate descriptions of E in and A in , and W impurity transport.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS1982

Transient thermal analysis of a titanium multiwall thermal protection system

The application of the SPAR thermal analyzer to the thermal analysis of a thermal protection system concept is discussed. The titanium multiwall thermal protection system concept consists of alternate flat and dimpled sheets which are joined together at the crests of the dimples and formed into 30 cm by 30 cm (12 in. by 12 in.) tiles. The tiles are mechanically attached to the structure. The complex tile geometry complicates thermal analysis. Three modes of heat transfer were considered: conduction through the gas inside the tile, conduction through the metal, and radiation between the various layers. The voids between the dimpled and flat sheets were designed to be small enough so that natural convection is insignificant (e.g., Grashof number 1000). A two step approach was used in the thermal analysis of the multiwall thermal protection system. First, an effective normal (through-the-thickness) thermal conductivity was obtained from a steady state analysis using a detailed SPAR finite element model of a small symmetric section of the multiwall tile. This effective conductivity was then used in simple one dimensional finite element models for preliminary analysis of several transient heat transfer problems.

Blosser, M. L.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Scalable modular dynamic molten salt reactor system model with decay heat

Nodal dynamic models allow rapid reduced-order simulations of complex systems. This paper presents a publicly available system dynamic model of a molten salt reactor system with a topology of the Molten Salt Reactor Experiment (MSRE), in MATLAB/Simulink, building upon a model previously published and validated with MSRE data. It adds scaling of nominal power, dynamic representation of decay heat generation, a generic decay heat removal system, improved documentation, modularity, and test cases. One hour of system transient runs in less than 10 min on a laptop. This model is intended for first order engineering calculations, developing insights into system transient behavior, equipment sizing, parameter sensitivity studies. The model contains an easy to use toolkit which can be customized and expanded to describe any molten salt reactor system. Finally, scenarios involving off-normal transients are presented. Relation between shutdown reactivity insertions, decay heat removal, core recriticality, and safe shutdown conditions are discussed.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Neutrino Target-of-Opportunity Observations with Space-based and Suborbital Optical Cherenkov Detectors

Cosmic-ray accelerators capable of reaching ultra-high energies are expected to also produce very high energy neutrinos via hadronic interactions within the source or its surrounding environment. Many of the candidate astrophysical source classes are either transient in nature or exhibit flaring activity. Using the Earth as a neutrino converter, suborbital and space-based optical Cherenkov detectors, such as POEMMA and EUSO-SPB2, will be able to detect upward-moving extensive air showers induced by decaying tau-leptons generated from cosmic tau neutrinos with energies ∼ 10 PeV and above. Both EUSO-SPB2 and POEMMA will be able to quickly repoint, enabling rapid response to astrophysical transient events. We calculate the transient sensitivity and sky coverage for both EUSO-SPB2 and POEMMA, accounting for constraints imposed by the Sun and the Moon on the observation time. We also calculate both detectors’ neutrino horizons for a variety of modeled astrophysical neutrino fluences. We find that both EUSO-SPB2 and POEMMA will achieve transient sensitivities at the level of modeled neutrino fluences for nearby sources. We conclude with a discussion of the prospects of each mission detecting at least one transient event for various modeled astrophysical neutrino sources.

Tonia M Venters↗

DOE OSTI2023

A reduced-order modeling of a tubular solar reactor for long duration thermochemical energy storage

The storage of solar energy in a solid form, referred to as a “solar fuel”, can be achieved through a process known as endothermic solar thermochemistry. This process transforms the absorbed solar energy into a stable and retrievable form that can be stored for extended periods of time. This paper presents a low–order heat transfer model of a counter–current tubular falling bed reactor designed to produce thermally reduced magnesium manganese oxide pellets for long duration thermochemical energy storage. The energy required for the endothermic reduction was supplied by concentrated solar energy or renewable electricity via indirect heating of the gas and solid reactants flowing in a ceramic tube. The counter-current gas flow enhances the mixing of the solid particles with the heat recuperation zone, allowing the gas and particles to enter and exit the tubular reactor close to room temperature. Further, the reactor was vertically oriented and was heated circumferentially by an adjustable level heat flux along a finite segment of its length. The temperature distribution of the reactor in response to transient changes along the tube was modeled by considering conduction, convection, and radiation heat transfer. Governing equations for the heat transfer model were solved by discretizing the reactor tube into a finite number of control volumes and using an energy balance for the heat exchange between the reactor wall, gas, and particles within the control volume. The energy absorbed during this endothermic reaction was modeled numerically by fitting the data of the chemical conversion rate with the corresponding temperature of particles in the heating zone. The numerical model has been experimentally validated using a reactor prototype made of a 121.92 cm alumina tube heated by a 7kW electric tube–furnace. The alumina tube receives magnesium manganese oxide pellets of 3.66±0.516 mm in diameter from the top, and a counter–current gas flow from the bottom. The reactor wall temperature was monitored by six thermocouples installed along the reactor tube length. The experimental procedure was numerically simulated, and the temperature variation along the reactor tube was compared with a matrix of experimental runs for a range of particles mass flowrates (0.75–1.25g/s) and corresponding gas flowrates (36–65 SLPM). The reactor system was heated gradually from room temperature to a steady state temperature of 1673K, and then cooled down to room temperature. The heating and cooling processes were simulated, and the numerical and experimental results were compared throughout processes. The numerical model showed similar trends to the experimental results, with an error of 0.69 to 7.9% for the particle inlet and 0.7 to 7.9% for the gas inlet during steady-state operation. The proposed numerical model can be implemented as a simplified physical model to design a feedback control system to regulate reactor temperature.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Deep Learning-Based Dynamic Modeling of Three-Phase Voltage Source Inverters

Inverter-based resource (IBR) models are necessary to analyze modern power system stability and create effective control strategies. Modeling IBRs in converter-rich power systems is crucial, yet challenging due to the lack of commercial information on converter topologies and control parameters. This paper proposes novel convolutional neural network (CNN)–based data-driven techniques for modeling IBRs, addressing adaptability and proprietary concerns without requiring internal system physics knowledge. The proposed method is tested using real grid-tied commercial IBR transient data and demonstrates effectiveness and accuracy. Furthermore, the developed modeling approach is integrated and implemented in the open-source power distribution simulation and analysis tool, GridLAB-D, to illustrate the potentiality of dynamic analysis of large-scale power systems with high IBRs.

deep learning, artificial intelligence↗

NASA NTRS1980

Transmission line model of the interaction of a long metal wire with the ionosphere

An equivalent electric circuit model is used to study the electrodynamic interactions of long orbiting metallic tethers with the ionospheric plasma and, in particular, to derive current and potential profiles along bare metallic tethers. In contrast with other models, this approach is dynamic, enabling both the transient behavior of the wire and its final equilibrium state to be derived. A comparison with the results of other models indicates the advantage of the present approach, especially in those cases where the internal resistance of the tether plays a major role in determining the current and potential distributions.

Arnold, D. A.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Phase-field simulations of fission gas bubbles in high burnup UO2 during steady-state and LOCA transient conditions

To improve the economics of commercial nuclear energy generation, U.S. utilities are currently seeking licensing approval to operate UO2 fuel to higher burnups. One significant safety issue that must be addressed to obtain approval is the potential for fine fragmentation/pulverization of the fuel during a loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA). It has been hypothesized this is caused by the rapid increase of pressure in fission gas bubbles in the high burnup region of the fuel. To better understand this phenomenon, a novel phase-field model of the fission gas bubble microstructure in UO2 has been developed and implemented in Idaho National Laboratory's Marmot application for phase-field simulation of nuclear materials. Simulations of bubble growth in the high burnup region during steady-state conditions showed that initially overpressurized bubbles decreased in pressure during growth, but still remained above equilibrium pressure. During a LOCA transient, simulations of bubbles in the high burnup region showed that bubble size did not change significantly, and the pressure increase due to the transient was calculated and passed to a phase-field model of fracture.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Differentiable hybrid neural network approach for enhancing reactor dynamics simulations

Reactor dynamics simulations provide essential insights into the time-dependent behavior of nuclear reactors under various operating conditions. However, high-fidelity simulations can be computationally intensive, requiring significant computational resources. Here, to address this challenge, this study employs a differentiable hybrid model that utilizes neural networks as a corrector to enhance the performance of a low-fidelity simulation, aligning its predictions with those of a high-fidelity simulation. Low-fidelity and high-fidelity simulations were obtained by adjusting the mesh size in the System Dynamics Analysis Tool. The differentiable hybrid model was trained in two approaches: time-step-wise and sequence-wise. It was then applied to simulate various transients in a molten salt reactor. Its performance was evaluated by comparing its responses to transients against those of the high-fidelity simulation. An additional approach was performed using a data-driven model to correct the low-fidelity simulation. In comparison, the differentiable hybrid model showed significant improvements in transient prediction, effectively addressing the limitations of the low-fidelity simulations. The results highlighted the robustness of the differentiable hybrid model in both training approaches. It delivered simulations that were at least 3.8 times faster than high-fidelity models. In the time-step-wise approach, it achieved at least a 39% improvement in accuracy. In the sequence-wise approach, it showed at least an 81% accuracy improvement over the full transient. This approach offers a promising path for improving computational efficiency without compromising accuracy in nuclear reactor simulations, making it suitable for real-time digital twin applications.

42 - ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1995

Transient studies of G-induced capillary dryout and rewet

A transient, one-dimensional numerical code is developed to model the liquid motion in an axial groove with square cross section. Axial variation in liquid level, shear stress and heat transfer between the groove wall and the liquid, evaporation and transient body forces are accounted for in the model. Dryout and rewet of the groove are allowed; the front location is determined numerically using conservation of mass and linear extrapolation. Several numerical test results are presented and discussed.

Reagan, M. K.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Resource Prospector Propulsion System Cold Flow Testing

Resource Prospector (RP) is a NASA mission being led by NASA Ames Research Center with current plans to deliver a scientific payload package aboard a rover to the lunar surface. As part of an early risk reduction activity, Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and Johnson Space Flight Center (JSC) have jointly developed a government-version concept of a lunar lander for the mission. The spacecraft consists of two parts, the lander and the rover which carries the scientific instruments. The lander holds the rover during launch, cruise, and landing on the surface. Following terminal descent and landing the lander portion of the spacecraft become dormant after the rover embarks on the science mission. The lander will be equipped with a propulsion system for lunar descent and landing, as well as trajectory correction and attitude control maneuvers during transit to the moon. Hypergolic propellants monomethyl hydrazine and nitrogen tetroxide will be used to fuel sixteen 70-lbf descent thrusters and twelve 5-lbf attitude control thrusters. A total of four metal-diaphragm tanks, two per propellant, will be used along with a high-pressure composite-overwrapped pressure vessel for the helium pressurant gas. Many of the major propulsion system components are heritage missile hardware obtained by NASA from the Air Force. In parallel with the flight system design activities, a simulated propulsion system based on flight drawings was built for conducting a series of water flow tests to characterize the transient fluid flow of the propulsion system feed lines and to verify the critical operation modes such as system priming, waterhammer, and crucial mission duty cycles. The primary objective of the cold flow testing was to simulate the RP propulsion system fluid flow operation through water flow testing and to obtain data for anchoring analytical models. The models will be used to predict the transient and steady state flow behaviors in the actual flight operations. All design and build efforts, including the analytical modeling, have been performed. The cold flow testing of the propulsion system was set up and conducted at a NASA MSFC test facility. All testing was completed in the summer of 2014, and this paper documents the results of that testing and the associated fluid system modeling efforts.

Williams, Hunter↗

DOE OSTI2026

Bounded-Confidence Models of Multidimensional Opinions with Topic-Weighted Discordance

People’s opinions on a wide range of topics often evolve over time through their interactions with others. Models of opinion dynamics primarily focus on one-dimensional opinions, which represent opinions on one topic. However, opinions on various topics are rarely isolated; instead, they can be interdependent and correlated. In a bounded-confidence model (BCM) of opinion dynamics, agents are receptive to each other only if their opinions are sufficiently similar. Here, we extend classical agent-based BCMs—namely, the Hegselmann–Krause BCM, which has synchronous interactions, and the Deffuant–Weisbuch BCM, which has asynchronous interactions—to a multidimensional setting, in which the opinions are multidimensional vectors representing opinions of different topics and opinions on different topics are interdependent. To measure opinion differences between agents, we introduce topic-weighted discordance functions that account for opinion differences in all topics. We define regions of receptiveness for our models, and we use them to characterize the steady-state opinion clusters and provide an analytical approach to compute these regions. In addition, we numerically simulate our models on various networks with initial opinions drawn from a variety of distributions. When initial opinions are correlated across different topics, our topic-weighted BCMs yield significantly different results in both transient and steady states compared to baseline models, where the dynamics of each opinion topic are independent.

Mathematics and Computing↗

NASA NTRS2012

Swift-X-Ray Telescope Monitoring of the Candidate Supergiant Fast X-ray Transient IGR J16418-4532

We report on the Swift monitoring of the candidate supergiant fast X-ray transient (SFXT) IGR J16418−4532, for which both orbital and spin periods are known (approx. 3.7 d and approx.1250 s, respectively). Our observations, for a total of approx. 43 ks, span over three orbital periods and represent the most intense and complete sampling of the light curve of this source with a sensitive X-ray instrument. With this unique set of observations, we can address the nature of this transient. By applying the clumpy wind model for blue supergiants to the observed X-ray light curve, and assuming a circular orbit, the X-ray emission from this source can be explained in terms of the accretion from a spherically symmetric clumpy wind, composed of clumps with different masses, ranging from approx. 5 × 10(exp 16) to 10(exp 21) g. Our data suggest, based on the X-ray behaviour, that this is an intermediate SFXT.

transient↗

DOE OSTI2021

Model Light Curves for Type Ib and Ic Supernovae

Using the Monte Carlo code SEDONA, multiband photometry and spectra are calculated for supernovae derived from stripped helium stars with presupernova masses of 2.2 to 10.0 M ⊙ . The models are representative of evolution in close binaries and have previously been exploded using a parameterized one-dimensional model for neutrino transport. A subset, those with presupernova masses in the range of 2.2–5.6 M⊙, have many properties in common with observed Type Ib and Ic supernovae, including a median ejected mass near 2 M ⊙ , explosion energies near 1 × 10 51 erg, typical 56 Ni masses of 0.07–0.09 M ⊙ , peak times of about 20 days, and a narrow range for the V - R color index 10 days post-V-maximum near 0.3 mag. The median peak bolometric luminosity, near 10 42.3 erg s -1 , is fainter, however, than several observational tabulations, and the brightest explosion has a bolometric luminosity of only 10 42.50 erg s -1 . The brightest absolute B, V, and R magnitudes at peak are -17.2, -17.8, and -18.0. These limits are fainter than some allegedly typical Type Ib and Ic supernovae and could reflect problems in our models or in the observational analysis. Helium stars with lower and higher masses also produce interesting transients that may have been observed, including fast, faint, blue transients and long, red, faint Type Ic supernovae. New models are specifically presented for SN 2007Y, SN 2007gr, SN 2009jf, LSQ 13abf, SN 2008D, and SN 2010X.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1992

FOCUS - An experimental environment for fault sensitivity analysis

FOCUS, a simulation environment for conducting fault-sensitivity analysis of chip-level designs, is described. The environment can be used to evaluate alternative design tactics at an early design stage. A range of user specified faults is automatically injected at runtime, and their propagation to the chip I/O pins is measured through the gate and higher levels. A number of techniques for fault-sensitivity analysis are proposed and implemented in the FOCUS environment. These include transient impact assessment on latch, pin and functional errors, external pin error distribution due to in-chip transients, charge-level sensitivity analysis, and error propagation models to depict the dynamic behavior of latch errors. A case study of the impact of transient faults on a microprocessor-based jet-engine controller is used to identify the critical fault propagation paths, the module most sensitive to fault propagation, and the module with the highest potential for causing external errors.

Choi, Gwan S.↗

NASA NTRS2014

A Model-Based Anomaly Detection Approach for Analyzing Streaming Aircraft Engine Measurement Data

This paper presents a model-based anomaly detection architecture designed for analyzing streaming transient aircraft engine measurement data. The technique calculates and monitors residuals between sensed engine outputs and model predicted outputs for anomaly detection purposes. Pivotal to the performance of this technique is the ability to construct a model that accurately reflects the nominal operating performance of the engine. The dynamic model applied in the architecture is a piecewise linear design comprising steady-state trim points and dynamic state space matrices. A simple curve-fitting technique for updating the model trim point information based on steadystate information extracted from available nominal engine measurement data is presented. Results from the application of the model-based approach for processing actual engine test data are shown. These include both nominal fault-free test case data and seeded fault test case data. The results indicate that the updates applied to improve the model trim point information also improve anomaly detection performance. Recommendations for follow-on enhancements to the technique are also presented and discussed.

Propulsion System Performance↗

NASA NTRS2015

A Model-Based Anomaly Detection Approach for Analyzing Streaming Aircraft Engine Measurement Data

Propulsion System Performance↗