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DOE OSTI2015

Dynamical constraints on the dark matter distribution in the Milky Way

An accurate knowledge of the dark matter distribution in the Milky Way is of crucial importance for galaxy formation studies and current searches for particle dark matter. In this paper we set new dynamical constraints on the Galactic dark matter profile by comparing the observed rotation curve, updated with a comprehensive compilation of kinematic tracers, with that inferred from a wide range of observation-based morphologies of the bulge, disc and gas. The generalised Navarro-Frenk-White (NFW) and Einasto dark matter profiles are fitted to the data in order to determine the favoured ranges of local density, slope and scale radius. For a representative baryonic model, a typical local circular velocity v{sub 0}=230 km/s and a distance of the Sun to the Galactic centre R{sub 0}=8 kpc, we find a local dark matter density ρ{sub 0} = 0.420{sup +0.021}{sub −0.018} (2σ) ± 0.025 GeV/cm{sup 3} (ρ{sub 0} = 0.420{sup +0.019}{sub −0.021} (2σ) ± 0.026 GeV/cm{sup 3}) for NFW (Einasto), where the second error is an estimate of the systematic due to baryonic modelling. Apart from the Galactic parameters, the main sources of uncertainty inside and outside the solar circle are baryonic modelling and rotation curve measurements, respectively. Upcoming astronomical observations are expected to reduce all these uncertainties substantially over the coming years.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Autoregressive long-horizon prediction of plasma edge dynamics *

Accurate modeling of scrape-off layer (SOL) and divertor-edge dynamics is vital for designing plasma-facing components in fusion devices. High-fidelity edge fluid/neutral codes such as SOLPS-ITER capture SOL physics with high accuracy, but their computational cost limits broad parameter scans and long transient studies. We present transformer-based, autoregressive surrogates for efficient prediction of 2D, time-dependent plasma edge state fields. Trained on SOLPS-ITER spatiotemporal data for the KSTAR tokamak, the surrogates forecast electron temperature, electron density, and radiated power over extended horizons. We evaluate model variants trained with increasing autoregressive horizons (1–100 steps) on short- and long-horizon prediction tasks. Longer-horizon training systematically improves rollout stability and mitigates error accumulation, enabling stable predictions over hundreds to thousands of steps and reproducing key dynamical features such as the motion of high-radiation regions. Measured end-to-end wall-clock times show the surrogate is orders of magnitude faster than SOLPS-ITER, enabling rapid parameter exploration. Prediction accuracy degrades when the surrogate enters physical regimes not represented in the training dataset, motivating future work on data enrichment and physics-informed constraints. Overall, this approach provides a fast, accurate surrogate for computationally intensive plasma edge simulations, supporting rapid scenario exploration, control-oriented studies, and progress toward real-time applications in fusion devices.

autoregressive deep learning↗
DOE OSTI2025

Parameter uncertainties for imperfect surrogate models in the low-noise regime

Abstract Bayesian regression determines model parameters by minimizing the expected loss, an upper bound to the true generalization error. However, this loss ignores model form error, or misspecification, meaning parameter uncertainties are significantly underestimated and vanish in the large data limit. As misspecification is the main source of uncertainty for surrogate models of low-noise calculations, such as those arising in atomistic simulation, predictive uncertainties are systematically underestimated. We analyze the true generalization error of misspecified, near-deterministic surrogate models, a regime of broad relevance in science and engineering. We show that posterior parameter distributions must cover every training point to avoid a divergence in the generalization error and design a compatible ansatz which incurs minimal overhead for linear models. The approach is demonstrated on model problems before application to thousand-dimensional datasets in atomistic machine learning. Our efficient misspecification-aware scheme gives accurate prediction and bounding of test errors in terms of parameter uncertainties, allowing this important source of uncertainty to be incorporated in multi-scale computational workflows.

Swinburne, Thomas D. (ORCID:0000000232554257)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Partial wave analysis of 𝑒 + ⁢𝑒 − → 𝜋 + ⁢𝜋 − ⁢𝐽/𝜓 and cross section measurement of 𝑒 + ⁢𝑒 − → 𝜋 ± ⁢𝑍 𝑐 ⁢(3900) ∓ from 4.1271 to 4.3583 GeV

Based on 12.0 fb −1 of 𝑒 + ⁢𝑒 − collision data samples collected by the BESIII detector at center-of-mass energies from 4.1271 to 4.3583 GeV, a partial wave analysis is performed for the process 𝑒 + ⁢𝑒 − → 𝜋 + ⁢𝜋 − ⁢𝐽/𝜓. The cross sections for the subprocesses 𝑒 + ⁢𝑒 − → 𝜋 + ⁢𝑍 𝑐 ⁢(3900) − + c.c. → 𝜋 + ⁢𝜋 − ⁢𝐽/𝜓, 𝑓 0 ⁡(980)⁢(→ 𝜋 + ⁢𝜋 − )⁢𝐽/𝜓, and (𝜋 + ⁢𝜋 − ) S−wave⁢ 𝐽/𝜓 are measured for the first time. The mass and width of the 𝑍 𝑐 ⁢(3900) ± are determined to be 3884.6 ± 0.7 ± 3.3 MeV/𝑐 2 and 37.2 ± 1.3 ± 6.6 MeV, respectively. The first errors are statistical and the second systematic. The final state (𝜋 + ⁢𝜋 − ) S−wave ⁢𝐽/𝜓 dominates the process 𝑒 + ⁢𝑒 − → 𝜋 + ⁢𝜋 − ⁢𝐽/𝜓. By analyzing the cross sections of 𝜋 ±⁢ 𝑍 𝑐 ⁢(3900) ∓ and 𝑓 0 ⁡(980)⁢𝐽/𝜓, 𝑌⁡(4220) has been observed. Its mass and width are determined to be 4225.7 ± 4.1 ± 3.4 MeV/𝑐 2 and 57.5 ± 9.4 ± 12.1 MeV, respectively.

lepton colliders↗
DOE OSTI2015

Measurements of B → D ¯ D s 0 * + ( 2317 ) decay rates and a search for isospin partners of the D s 0 * + ( 2317 )

In this work, we report improved measurements of the product branching fractions B ( B + → D ¯ 0 D s 0 * + ( 2317 ) ) × B ( D s 0 * + ( 2317 ) → D s + π 0 ) = ( 8. 0 - 1.2 + 1.3 ± 1.1 ± 0.4 ) × 1 0 - 4 and B ( B 0 → D - D s 0 * + ( 2317 ) ) × B ( D s 0 * + ( 2317 ) → D s + π 0 ) = ( 10. 2 - 1.2 + 1.3 ± 1.0 ± 0.4 ) × 1 0 - 4 , where the first errors are statistical, the second are systematic and the third are from D and D s + branching fractions. In addition, we report negative results from a search for hypothesized neutral ( z 0 ) and doubly charged ( z + + ) isospin partners of the D s 0 * + ( 2317 ) and provide upper limits on the product branching fractions B ( B 0 → D 0 z 0 ) × B ( z 0 → D s + π - ) and B ( B + → D - z + + ) × B ( z + + → D s + π + ) that are more than an order of magnitude smaller than theoretical expectations for the hypotheses that the D s 0 * + ( 2317 ) is a member of an isospin triplet. The analysis uses a 711 fb - 1 data sample containing 772 million B B ¯ -meson pairs collected at the Υ ( 4 S ) resonance in the Belle detector at the KEKB collider.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Measurement of e + e - → π + π - ψ ( 2 S ) via initial state radiation at Belle

We report here measurement of the cross section of e + e - → π + π - ψ ( 2 S ) between 4.0 and 5.5 GeV, based on an analysis of initial state radiation events in a 980 fb - 1 data sample recorded with the Belle detector. The properties of the Y ( 4360 ) and Y ( 4660 ) states are determined. Fitting the mass spectrum of π + π - ψ ( 2 S ) with two coherent Breit-Wigner functions, we discover two solutions with identical mass and width but different couplings to electron-positron pairs: M Y ( 4360 ) = ( 4347 ± 6 ± 3 ) MeV / c 2 , Γ Y ( 4360 ) = ( 103 ± 9 ± 5 ) MeV , M Y ( 4660 ) = ( 4652 ± 10 ± 8 ) MeV / c 2 , Γ Y ( 4660 ) = ( 68 ± 11 ± 1 ) MeV ; and B [ Y ( 4360 ) → π + π - ψ ( 2 S ) ] · Γ Y ( 4360 ) e + e - = ( 10.9 ± 0.6 ± 0.7 ) eV and B [ Y ( 4660 ) → π + π - ψ ( 2 S ) ] · Γ Y ( 4660 ) e + e - = ( 8.1 ± 1.1 ± 0.5 ) eV for one solution; or B [ Y ( 4360 ) → π + π - ψ ( 2 S ) ] · Γ Y ( 4360 ) e + e - = ( 9.2 ± 0.6 ± 0.6 ) eV and B [ Y ( 4660 ) → π + π = ψ ( 2 S ) ] · Γ Y ( 4660 ) e + e - = ( 2.0 ± 0.3 ± 0.2 ) eV for the other. Here, the first errors are statistical and the second systematic. Evidence for a charged charmoniumlike structure at 4.05 GeV / c 2 is observed in the π ± ψ ( 2 S ) intermediate state in the Y ( 4360 ) decays. decays.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Standard Model Prediction for Direct C P Violation in K → π π Decay

In this paper, we report the first lattice QCD calculation of the complex kaon decay amplitude A 0 with physical kinematics, using a 32 3 x 64 lattice volume and a single lattice spacing a, with 1/a = 1.3784(68) GeV. We find Re(A 0 ) = 4.66(1.00)(1.26) x 10 -7 GeV and Im(A 0 ) = -1.90(1.23)(1.08) x 10 -11 GeV, where the first error is statistical and the second systematic. The first value is in approximate agreement with the experimental result: Re(A 0 ) = 3.3201(18) x 10 -7 GeV, while the second can be used to compute the direct CP-violating ratio Re(ϵ'/ϵ) = 1.38(5.15)(4.59) x 10 -4 , which is 2.1σ below the experimental value 16.6(2.3) x 10 -4 . Finally, the real part of A 0 is CP conserving and serves as a test of our method while the result for Re(ϵ'/ϵ) provides a new test of the standard model theory of CP violation, one which can be made more accurate with increasing computer capability.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Extracting Topological Orders of Generalized Pauli Stabilizer Codes in Two Dimensions

In this paper, we introduce an algorithm for extracting topological data from translation invariant generalized Pauli stabilizer codes in two-dimensional systems, focusing on the analysis of anyon excitations and string operators. The algorithm applies to Z d qudits, including instances where d is a nonprime number. This capability allows the identification of topological orders that differ from the Z d toric codes. It extends our understanding beyond the established theorem that Pauli stabilizer codes for Z p qudits (with p being a prime) are equivalent to finite copies of Z p toric codes and trivial stabilizers. The algorithm is designed to determine all anyons and their string operators, enabling the computation of their fusion rules, topological spins, and braiding statistics. The method converts the identification of topological orders into computational tasks, including Gaussian elimination, the Hermite normal form, and the Smith normal form of truncated Laurent polynomials. Furthermore, the algorithm provides a systematic approach for studying quantum error-correcting codes. We apply it to various codes, such as self-dual CSS quantum codes modified from the two-dimensional honeycomb color code and non-CSS quantum codes that contain the double semion topological order or the six-semion topological order. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Parton physics from a heavy-quark operator product expansion: Lattice QCD calculation of the fourth moment of the pion distribution amplitude

The pion light-cone distribution amplitude (LCDA) is an essential nonperturbative input for a range of high-energy exclusive processes in quantum chromodynamics. Building on our previous work, the continuum limit of the fourth Mellin moment of the pion LCDA is determined in quenched QCD using quark masses which correspond to a pion mass of 𝑚 𝜋 = 550 MeV. This calculation finds ⟨𝜉 2 ⟩ = 0.202⁢(8)⁢(9) and ⟨𝜉 4 ⟩ = 0.039⁢(28)⁢(11) where the first error indicates the combined statistical and systematic uncertainty from the analysis and the second indicates the uncertainty from working with Wilson coefficients computed to next-to-leading order. These results are presented in the $\overline{\textrm{MS}}$ scheme at a renormalization scale of 𝜇 = 2 GeV.

Detmold, William [Massachusetts Inst. of Technolog↗
DOE OSTI2016

ACCELERATED FITTING OF STELLAR SPECTRA

Stellar spectra are often modeled and fitted by interpolating within a rectilinear grid of synthetic spectra to derive the stars’ labels: stellar parameters and elemental abundances. However, the number of synthetic spectra needed for a rectilinear grid grows exponentially with the label space dimensions, precluding the simultaneous and self-consistent fitting of more than a few elemental abundances. Shortcuts such as fitting subsets of labels separately can introduce unknown systematics and do not produce correct error covariances in the derived labels. In this paper we present a new approach—Convex Hull Adaptive Tessellation (chat)—which includes several new ideas for inexpensively generating a sufficient stellar synthetic library, using linear algebra and the concept of an adaptive, data-driven grid. A convex hull approximates the region where the data lie in the label space. A variety of tests with mock data sets demonstrate that chat can reduce the number of required synthetic model calculations by three orders of magnitude in an eight-dimensional label space. The reduction will be even larger for higher dimensional label spaces. In chat the computational effort increases only linearly with the number of labels that are fit simultaneously. Around each of these grid points in the label space an approximate synthetic spectrum can be generated through linear expansion using a set of “gradient spectra” that represent flux derivatives at every wavelength point with respect to all labels. These techniques provide new opportunities to fit the full stellar spectra from large surveys with 15–30 labels simultaneously.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

RELICS: A Very Large ( θ E ~ 40") Cluster Lens—RXC J0032.1+1808

Extensive surveys with the Hubble Space Telescope over the past decade, targeting some of the most massive clusters in the sky, have uncovered dozens of galaxy cluster strong lenses. The massive cluster strong-lens scale is typically θ E ~ 10'' to ~30''–35'', with only a handful of clusters known with Einstein radii θ E ~ 40'' or above (for z source = 2, nominally). Here we report another very large cluster lens, RXC J0032.1+1808 (z = 0.3956), the second-richest cluster in the redMapper cluster catalog and the 85th most massive cluster in the Planck Sunyaev–Zel'dovich catalog. With our light-traces-mass and fully parametric approaches, we construct strong-lensing models based on 18 multiple images of five background galaxies newly identified in the Hubble data, mainly from the Reionization Lensing Cluster Survey (RELICS), in addition to a known sextuply imaged system in this cluster. Furthermore, we compare these models to Lenstool and GLAFIC models that were produced independently as part of the RELICS program. All models reveal a large effective Einstein radius of θ E ≃ 40'' (z source = 2), owing to the obvious concentration of substructures near the cluster center. Although RXC J0032.1+1808 has a very large critical area and high lensing strength, only three magnified high-redshift candidates are found within the field targeted by RELICS. Nevertheless, we expect many more high-redshift candidates will be seen in wider and deeper observations with Hubble or the James Webb Space Telescope. Finally, the comparison between several algorithms demonstrates that the total error budget is largely dominated by systematic uncertainties.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Stellar-reddening-based Extinction Maps for Cosmological Applications

Cosmological surveys must correct their observations for the reddening of extragalactic objects by Galactic dust. Existing dust maps, however, have been found to have spatial correlations with the large-scale structure of the Universe. Errors in extinction maps can propagate systematic biases into samples of dereddened extragalactic objects and into cosmological measurements such as correlation functions between foreground lenses and background objects and the primordial non-Gaussianity parameter f NL . Emission-based maps are contaminated by the cosmic infrared background, while maps inferred from stellar reddenings suffer from imperfect removal of quasars and galaxies from stellar catalogs. Thus, stellar-reddening-based maps using catalogs without extragalactic objects offer a promising path to making dust maps with minimal correlations with large-scale structure. We present two high-latitude integrated extinction maps based on stellar reddenings, with a point-spread functions of FWHMs 6'. 1 and 15'. We employ a strict selection of catalog objects to filter out galaxies and quasars and measure the spatial correlation of our extinction maps with extragalactic structure. Our galactic extinction maps have reduced spatial correlation with large-scale structure relative to most existing stellar-reddening-based and emission-based extinction maps.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2011

Measurement of the Tau- to F1(1285) Pi- Nu/Tau Branching Fraction And a Search for Second-Class Currents in Tau to Eta-Prime(958) Pi- Nu/Tau

The {tau}{sup -} {yields} {eta}{pi}{sup -}{pi}+{pi}{sup -}{nu}{tau} decay with the {eta} {yields} {gamma}{gamma} mode is studied using 384 fb{sup -1} of data collected by the BaBar detector. The branching fraction is measured to be (1.60 {+-} 0.05 {+-} 0.11) x 10{sup -4}. It is found that {tau}{sup -} {yields} f1(1285){pi}{sup -}{nu}{tau} {yields} {eta}{pi}{sup -}{pi}+{pi}{sup -}{nu}{tau} is the dominant decay mode with a branching fraction of (1.11 {+-} 0.06 {+-} 0.05) x 10{sup -4}. The first error is statistical and the second systematic. In addition, a 90% confidence level upper limit on the branching fraction of the {tau}{sup -} {yields} {eta}{prime}(958){pi}{sup -}{nu}{tau} decay is measured to be 7.2 x 10{sup -6}. This last decay proceeds through a second-class current and is expected to be forbidden in the limit of isospin symmetry.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Measurement of the Cosmic Microwave Background Polarization Lensing Power Spectrum from Two Years of POLARBEAR Data

Here, we present a measurement of the gravitational lensing deflection power spectrum reconstructed with two seasons of cosmic microwave background polarization data from the Polarbear experiment. Observations were taken at 150 GHz from 2012 to 2014 and surveyed three patches of sky totaling 30 square degrees. We test the consistency of the lensing spectrum with a cold dark matter cosmology and reject the no-lensing hypothesis at a confidence of 10.9σ, including statistical and systematic uncertainties. We observe a value of A L = 1.33 ± 0.32 (statistical) ±0.02 (systematic) ±0.07 (foreground) using all polarization lensing estimators, which corresponds to a 24% accurate measurement of the lensing amplitude. Compared to the analysis of the first-year data, we have improved the breadth of both the suite of null tests and the error terms included in the estimation of systematic contamination.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

AMiBA: cluster Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect observations with the expanded 13-element array

The Yuan-Tseh Lee Array for Microwave Background Anisotropy (AMiBA) is a co-planar interferometer array operating at a wavelength of 3 mm to measure the Sunyaev–Zel’dovich effect (SZE) of galaxy clusters at arcminute scales. The first phase of operation—with a compact 7-element array with 0.6 m antennas (AMiBA-7)—observed six clusters at angular scales from 5{sup ′} to 23{sup ′}. Here, we describe the expansion of AMiBA to a 13-element array with 1.2 m antennas (AMiBA-13), its subsequent commissioning, and cluster SZE observing program. The most noticeable changes compared to AMiBA-7 are (1) array re-configuration with baselines ranging from 1.4 m to 4.8 m, allowing us to sample structures between 2{sup ′} and 10{sup ′}, (2) 13 new lightweight carbon-fiber-reinforced plastic (CFRP) 1.2 m reflectors, and (3) additional correlators and six new receivers. Since the reflectors are co-mounted on and distributed over the entire six-meter CFRP platform, a refined hexapod pointing error model and phase error correction scheme have been developed for AMiBA-13. These effects—entirely negligible for the earlier central close-packed AMiBA-7 configuration—can lead to additional geometrical delays during observations. Our correction scheme recovers at least 80 ± 5% of the point-source fluxes. We, therefore, apply an upward correcting factor of 1.25 to our visibilities to correct for phase decoherence, and a ±5% systematic uncertainty is added in quadrature with our statistical errors. We demonstrate the absence of further systematics with a noise level consistent with zero in stacked uv-visibilities. From the AMiBA-13 SZE observing program, we present here maps of a subset of 12 clusters with signal-to-noise ratios above five. We demonstrate combining AMiBA-7 with AMiBA-13 observations on Abell 1689, by jointly fitting their data to a generalized Navarro–Frenk–White model. Our cylindrically integrated Compton-y values for five radii are consistent with results from the Berkeley-Illinois-Maryland Array, the Owens Valley Radio Observatory, the Sunyaev–Zel’dovich Array, and the Planck Observatory. We also report the first targeted SZE detection toward the optically selected cluster RCS J1447+0828, and we demonstrate the ability of AMiBA SZE data to serve as a proxy for the total cluster mass. Finally, we show that our AMiBA-SZE derived cluster masses are consistent with recent lensing mass measurements in the literature.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

BEYONDPLANCK X. Planck Low Frequency Instrument frequency maps with sample-based error propagation

We present Planck Low Frequency Instrument (LFI) frequency sky maps derived within the BEYONDPLANCK framework. This framework draws samples from a global posterior distribution that includes instrumental, astrophysical, and cosmological parameters, and the main product is an entire ensemble of frequency sky map samples, each of which corresponds to one possible realization of the various modeled instrumental systematic corrections, including correlated noise, time-variable gain, as well as far sidelobe and bandpass corrections. This ensemble allows for computationally convenient end-to-end propagation of low-level instrumental uncertainties into higher-level science products, including astrophysical component maps, angular power spectra, and cosmological parameters. We show that the two dominant sources of LFI instrumental systematic uncertainties are correlated noise and gain fluctuations, and the products presented here support – for the first time – full Bayesian error propagation for these effects at full angular resolution. We compared our posterior mean maps with traditional frequency maps delivered by the Planck Collaboration, and find generally good agreement. The most important quality improvement is due to significantly lower calibration uncertainties in the new processing, as we find a fractional absolute calibration uncertainty at 70 GHz of Δg 0 /g 0 = 5 x 10 -5 , which is nominally 40 times smaller than that reported by Planck 2018. However, we also note that the original Planck 2018 estimate has a nontrivial statistical interpretation, and this further illustrates the advantage of the new framework in terms of producing self-consistent and well-defined error estimates of all involved quantities without the need of ad hoc uncertainty contributions. We describe how low-resolution data products, including dense pixel-pixel covariance matrices, may be produced from the posterior samples directly, without the need for computationally expensive analytic calculations or simulations. We conclude that posterior-based frequency map sampling provides unique capabilities in terms of low-level systematics modeling and error propagation, and may play an important role for future Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) B-mode experiments aiming at nanokelvin precision.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗