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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

DSMC Simulation of Etch Pit Formation Through Active Sites in Carbon Fiber Micro-Structures

Erosion of carbon due to oxidation does not occur uniformly but through localized etch pit formation because of active surface sites. In this work we demonstrate a newly developed capability to capture pitting of carbon fiber microstructures such as FiberForm, which is commonly used as the base material for NASA’s spacecraft ablative thermal protection systems (TPS). The simulations are performed at the meso-scale in order to capture the pit formation and growth using direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC), specifically using the Stochastic PArallel Rarefied-gas Time-accurate Analyzer (SPARTA) code. Legacy and latest models both assume uniform reactivity of carbon surface sites with oxygen even at the meso-scale level. However, in reality the carbon surface has locally different reaction rates due to the presence of defects at the atomic scale. The defective nature of these sites enhances their reactivity with atmospheric gases compared to the non-defective sites (2-3 orders of magnitude) and are termed as “active sites”. Thus, these sites tend to be the first to react and eventually get removed through the formation of gases such as CO, CO2, and CN. Their removal results in all the neighboring atoms becoming defective, thus leading to chain reaction of localized carbon removal and formation of etch pits. Capturing the formation of pits during the ablation simulation of carbon micro-structures is critical to predicting their structural failure. Recently a detailed surface chemistry framework was developed in SPARTA, capable of incorporating various detailed surface reaction mechanisms. We have implemented the capability of a single surface having multiple site sets with different reactivities within this framework. We have used this feature to model the presence of active sites on carbon surfaces, whose reactivity is orders of magnitude higher than that of the passive sites due to the presence of defects. The active site fraction is a property of surface elements within SPARTA and is directly proportional to the local reactivity of each surface element. By introducing an initial distribution of the active site fraction across the carbon surface and propagating it in a manner that mimics the evolution of real reacting carbon surfaces, we can capture the formation and growth of etch pits as a result of surface consumption reactions such as oxidation.

DSMC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Development and Application of a Risk Analysis Toolkit for Plant Resources Optimization

This report summarizes the R&D activities of the Risk Informed Asset Management (RIAM) project during fiscal year 2020 (FY20). This project focuses on the development of methods designed to optimize plant operations (e.g., maintenance/replacement schedule, optimal maintenance posture) provided system/component health/cost data. This project development lives in cooperation with the Plant Health Management (PHM) project which focuses on the development of methods that integrate component health data and propagate such information at the system level to evaluate most relevant sources of risk. This year’s activities for the RIAM project focused on the continuation of schedule optimization algorithms developed in FY19. While in FY19 we focused on both deterministic and stochastic capital budgeting methods, in FY20 we moved forward by implementing two versions of schedule optimization methods. The first one reformulates the capital budgeting problem in a distributionally robust form which allows the user to rely on data directly rather than proposing a distribution from the data itself. The second version reformulates the capital budgeting explicitly using risk measures as variables to maximize/minimize. Lastly, we focused on the development of methods designed to identify the optimal maintenance posture based on the Pareto Frontier analysis. Rather than performing a tradeoff analysis (i.e., identify the absolute best posture), the Pareto Frontier analysis performs a trade space exploration approach (i.e., identify value and costs of several postures and have the analyst perform the task of imposing desired value and cost constraints). This is performed by identifying maintenance postures that maximize value (e.g., system availability) and minimize operational costs, i.e., the Pareto frontier in a value-cost trade space.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1988

Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods for select space propulsion system structural components (PSAM)

The objective is the development of several modular structural analysis packages capable of predicting the probabilistic response distribution for key structural variables such as maximum stress, natural frequencies, transient response, etc. The structural analysis packages are to include stochastic modeling of loads, material properties, geometry (tolerances), and boundary conditions. The solution is to be in terms of the cumulative probability of exceedance distribution (CDF) and confidence bounds. Two methods of probability modeling are to be included as well as three types of structural models - probabilistic finite-element method (PFEM); probabilistic approximate analysis methods (PAAM); and probabilistic boundary element methods (PBEM). The purpose in doing probabilistic structural analysis is to provide the designer with a more realistic ability to assess the importance of uncertainty in the response of a high performance structure. Probabilistic Structural Analysis Method (PSAM) tools will estimate structural safety and reliability, while providing the engineer with information on the confidence that should be given to the predicted behavior. Perhaps most critically, the PSAM results will directly provide information on the sensitivity of the design response to those variables which are seen to be uncertain.

Cruse, T. A.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Optimisation of the Kaplan hydropower system via PID 2 and digital twin

Here, this paper proposes a proportional–integral-double–derivative (PID 2 ) optimisation method for the Kaplan hydropower system by building a digital twin. The study first uses one multilayer perceptron (MLP) to model the hydroturbine dynamic and then adopts three connected MLPs to model the generator dynamic, both in an open-loop fashion. Inspired by stochastic distribution control (SDC) theory, we regard the training of the turbine's neural network model as a process control problem, and we propose minimising entropy loss to update the network parameters. The next step is to build the digital twin by connecting the neural network models with a PID 2 controller and a lead-lag exciter and run the whole model in a closed-loop fashion. After that, a binary search approach is applied to optimise the PID 2 parameters based on the obtained digital twin model. The simulation results show that the proposed method can reduce the mean square tracking error by more than 90%. Furthermore, the method is extended to jointly optimise the PID 2 controller and excitation system gains through multiobjective optimisation, leveraging Pareto frontier analysis to balance active power and voltage tracking performance. Simulation results confirm the effectiveness of the proposed method, achieving a 83.46% reduction in relative mean square error of active power, a 47.13% reduction in terminal voltage tracking error, and an 82.78% improvement in the overall scalarized objective.

Hydropower system↗
DOE OSTI2020

E-Area Low-Level Waste Facility GoldSim System Model

This report documents the development of the E-Area Low-Level Waste Facility (ELLWF) trench system model. The GoldSim® Monte Carlo simulation software is utilized to model the release and transport of radiological inventory disposed (both currently and in the future) within Engineered and Slit Trenches. This model is in support of the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for the ELLWF Performance Assessment. The ELLWF system model utilizes a hybrid-approach to accurately describe the disposal system. The Hydrologic Evaluation of Landfill Performance model provides the infiltration data to both PORFLOW and GoldSim. PORFLOW is used to calibrate the GoldSim model to ensure confidence in the stochastic results. Finally, the concentrations from GoldSim transport simulations are fed into the SRNL Dose Toolkit to calculate dose impacts and assess plume interaction

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
NASA NTRS1975

Digital program for solving the linear stochastic optimal control and estimation problem

A computer program is described which solves the linear stochastic optimal control and estimation (LSOCE) problem by using a time-domain formulation. The LSOCE problem is defined as that of designing controls for a linear time-invariant system which is disturbed by white noise in such a way as to minimize a performance index which is quadratic in state and control variables. The LSOCE problem and solution are outlined; brief descriptions are given of the solution algorithms, and complete descriptions of each subroutine, including usage information and digital listings, are provided. A test case is included, as well as information on the IBM 7090-7094 DCS time and storage requirements.

Geyser, L. C.↗
NASA NTRS2006

A Comprehensive Assessment of Biologicals Contained Within Commercial Airliner Cabin Air

Both culture-based and culture-independent, biomarker-targeted microbial enumeration and identification technologies were employed to estimate total microbial and viral burden and diversity within the cabin air of commercial airliners. Samples from each of twenty flights spanning three commercial carriers were collected via air-impingement. When the total viable microbial population was estimated by assaying relative concentrations of the universal energy carrier ATP, values ranged from below detection limits (BDL) to 4.1 x 106 cells/cubic m of air. The total viable microbial population was extremely low in both of Airline A (approximately 10% samples) and C (approximately 18% samples) compared to the samples collected aboard flights on Airline A and B (approximately 70% samples). When samples were collected as a function of time over the course of flights, a gradual accumulation of microbes was observed from the time of passenger boarding through mid-flight, followed by a sharp decline in microbial abundance and viability from the initiation of descent through landing. It is concluded in this study that only 10% of the viable microbes of the cabin air were cultivable and suggested a need to employ state-of-the art molecular assay that measures both cultivable and viable-but-non-cultivable microbes. Among the cultivable bacteria, colonies of Acinetobacter sp. were by far the most profuse in Phase I, and Gram-positive bacteria of the genera Staphylococcus and Bacillus were the most abundant during Phase II. The isolation of the human pathogens Acinetobacter johnsonii, A. calcoaceticus, Janibacter melonis, Microbacterium trichotecenolyticum, Massilia timonae, Staphylococcus saprophyticus, Corynebacterium lipophiloflavum is concerning, as these bacteria can cause meningitis, septicemia, and a handful of sometimes fatal diseases and infections. Molecular microbial community analyses exhibited presence of the alpha-, beta-, gamma-, and delta- proteobacteria, as well as Gram-positive bacteria, Fusobacteria, Cyanobacteria, Deinococci, Bacterioidetes, Spirochetes, and Planctomyces in varying abundance. Neisseria meningitidis rDNA sequences were retrieved in great abundance from Airline A followed by Streptococcus oralis/mitis sequences. Pseudomonas synxantha sequences dominated Airline B clone libraries, followed by those of N. meningitidis and S. oralis/mitis. In Phase II, Airline C, sequences representative of more than 113 species, enveloping 12 classes of bacteria, were retrieved. Proteobacterial sequences were retrieved in greatest frequency (58% of all clone sequences), followed in short order by those stemming from Gram-positives bacteria (31% of all clone sequences). As for overall phylogenetic breadth, Gram-positive and alpha-proteobacteria seem to have a higher affinity for international flights, whereas beta-and gamma-proteobacteria are far more common about domestic cabin air parcels in Airline C samples. Ultimately, the majority of microbial species circulating throughout the cabin airs of commercial airliners are commensal, infrequently pathogenic normal flora of the human nasopharynx and respiratory system. Many of these microbes likely originate from the oral and nasal cavities, and lungs of passengers and flight crew and are disseminated unknowingly via routine conversation, coughing, sneezing, and stochastic passing of fomites. The data documented in this study will be useful to generate a baseline microbial population database and can be utilized to develop biosensor instrumentation for monitoring microbial quality of cabin or urban air.

microbial diversity↗
NASA NTRS2012

Markov Modeling of Component Fault Growth over a Derived Domain of Feasible Output Control Effort Modifications

This paper introduces a novel Markov process formulation of stochastic fault growth modeling, in order to facilitate the development and analysis of prognostics-based control adaptation. A metric representing the relative deviation between the nominal output of a system and the net output that is actually enacted by an implemented prognostics-based control routine, will be used to define the action space of the formulated Markov process. The state space of the Markov process will be defined in terms of an abstracted metric representing the relative health remaining in each of the system s components. The proposed formulation of component fault dynamics will conveniently relate feasible system output performance modifications to predictions of future component health deterioration.

Bole, Brian↗
NASA NTRS1986

Dynamic remapping of parallel computations with varying resource demands

A large class of computational problems is characterized by frequent synchronization, and computational requirements which change as a function of time. When such a problem must be solved on a message passing multiprocessor machine, the combination of these characteristics lead to system performance which decreases in time. Performance can be improved with periodic redistribution of computational load; however, redistribution can exact a sometimes large delay cost. We study the issue of deciding when to invoke a global load remapping mechanism. Such a decision policy must effectively weigh the costs of remapping against the performance benefits. We treat this problem by constructing two analytic models which exhibit stochastically decreasing performance. One model is quite tractable; we are able to describe the optimal remapping algorithm, and the optimal decision policy governing when to invoke that algorithm. However, computational complexity prohibits the use of the optimal remapping decision policy. We then study the performance of a general remapping policy on both analytic models. This policy attempts to minimize a statistic W(n) which measures the system degradation (including the cost of remapping) per computation step over a period of n steps. We show that as a function of time, the expected value of W(n) has at most one minimum, and that when this minimum exists it defines the optimal fixed-interval remapping policy. Our decision policy appeals to this result by remapping when it estimates that W(n) is minimized. Our performance data suggests that this policy effectively finds the natural frequency of remapping. We also use the analytic models to express the relationship between performance and remapping cost, number of processors, and the computation's stochastic activity.

Nicol, D. M.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Adaptive Sampling-Based Bi-Fidelity Stochastic Trust Region Method for Stochastic Derivative-Free Optimization

Bi-fidelity stochastic optimization has gained increasing attention as an efficient approach to reduce computational costs by leveraging a low-fidelity (LF) model to optimize an expensive high-fidelity (HF) objective. In this paper, we propose ASTRO-BFDF, an adaptive sampling trust-region method specifically designed for unconstrained bi-fidelity stochastic derivative-free optimization problems. In ASTRO-BFDF, the LF function serves two purposes: (i) to identify better iterates for the HF function when the optimization process indicates a high correlation between them and (ii) to reduce the variance of the HF function estimates using bi-fidelity Monte Carlo (BFMC). The algorithm dynamically determines sample sizes while adaptively choosing between crude Monte Carlo and BFMC to balance the trade-off between optimization and sampling errors. We prove that the iterates generated by ASTRO-BFDF converge to a first-order stationary point almost surely. Additionally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm through numerical experiments on synthetic benchmarks and simulation optimization problems involving discrete event systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multi-Stage Modeling With Recourse Decisions for Solving Stochastic Complementarity Problems With an Application in Energy

This paper presents a multi-stage model with recourse decisions for solving complementarity problems in a competitive electricity market under uncertainty, while also considering renewable energy technologies and battery storage utilization. The model is based on a Nash-Cournot formulation of imperfect competition among power producers. We analyze the value of variable renewable energy (VRE) and battery storage under different uncertainties, such as demand level and VRE availability. To illustrate the proposed model, we apply it to three- bus five-player model and analyze different cases varying costs, including a user-optimal perspective (with market power) and a system-optimal perspective (with central planning). We also consider the potential for congestion in the system by restricting the transmission capacity between a single interface that connects two buses. Our findings show that increasing the battery storage capacity results in a decrease in the need for perfect information about future uncertainties. Additionally, as the model allows for more uncertainty, it becomes more apparent that the stochastic mixed complementarity problem (MCP) has an advantage over a deterministic equivalent. We propose the use of the Value of the Stochastic Equilibrium Solution (VSES) as a quality metric to compare the stochastic MCP with its deterministic equivalent. Overall, expanding battery storage capacity can lower the maximum, mean, and variance values of delivered prices, but there are diminishing returns to this approach.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS2000

Balanced Branching in Transcription Termination

The theory of stochastic transcription termination based on free-energy competition [von Hippel, P. H. & Yager, T. D. (1992) Science 255,809-812 and van Hippel, P. H. & Yager, T. D. (1991) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 88, 2307-2311] requires two or more reaction rates to be delicately balanced over a wide range of physical conditions. A large body of work on glasses and large molecules suggests that this balancing should be impossible in such a large system in the absence of a new organizing principle of matter. We review the experimental literature of termination and find no evidence for such a principle, but do find many troubling Inconsistencies, most notably, anomalous memory effects. These effects suggest that termination has a deterministic component and may conceivably not be stochastic at all. We find that a key experiment by Wilson and von Hippel [Wilson, K. S. & von Hippel, P. H. (1994) J. Mol. Biol. 244,36-51] thought to demonstrate stochastic termination was an incorrectly analyzed regulatory effect of Mg(2+) binding.

Harrington, K. J.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Growth phase estimation for abundant bacterial populations sampled longitudinally from human stool metagenomes

Longitudinal sampling of the stool has yielded important insights into the ecological dynamics of the human gut microbiome. However, human stool samples are available approximately once per day, while commensal population doubling times are likely on the order of minutes-to-hours. Despite this mismatch in timescales, much of the prior work on human gut microbiome time series modeling has assumed that day-to-day fluctuations in taxon abundances are related to population growth or death rates, which is likely not the case. Here, we propose an alternative model of the human gut as a stationary system, where population dynamics occur internally and the bacterial population sizes measured in a bolus of stool represent a steady-state endpoint of these dynamics. We formalize this idea as stochastic logistic growth. We show how this model provides a path toward estimating the growth phases of gut bacterial populations in situ. We validate our model predictions using an in vitro Escherichia coli growth experiment. Finally, we show how this method can be applied to densely-sampled human stool metagenomic time series data. We discuss how these growth phase estimates may be used to better inform metabolic modeling in flow-through ecosystems, like animal guts or industrial bioreactors.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Reducing Urban Traffic Congestion Using Deep Learning and Model Predictive Control

This article proposes a deep learning (DL)-based control algorithm—DL velocity-based model predictive control (VMPC)—for reducing traffic congestion with slowly time-varying traffic signal controls. This control algorithm consists of system identification using DL and traffic signal control using VMPC. For the training process of DL, we established a modeling error entropy loss as the criteria inspired by the theory of stochastic distribution control (SDC) originated by the fourth author. Herein, simulation results show that the proposed algorithm can reduce traffic congestion with a slowly varying traffic signal control input. Results of an ablation study demonstrate that this algorithm compares favorably to other model-based controllers in terms of prediction error, signal varying speed, and control effectiveness.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1996

Optimal Estimation of Rain-Rate Profiles from Single-Frequency Radar Echoes

The significant ambiguities inherent in the determination of a particular vertical rain intensity profile from a given time profile of radar echo powers measured by a downward-looking (spaceborne or airborne) radar at a single attenuating frequency are well documented. Indeed, one already knows that by appropriately varying the parameters of the reflectivity-rain rate (Z-R) and/or attenuation-rain rate (k- R) relationships one can produce several substantially different rain-rate profiles that would produce the same radar power profile. Imposing the additional constraint that the path-averaged rain rate be a given fixed number does reduce the ambiguities but falls far short of eliminating them. While formulas to generate all mutually ambiguous rain-rate profiles from a given profile of received radar reflectivities have already been derived, there remains to be produced a quantitative measure to assess how likely each of these profiles is, what the appropriate "average" profile should be, and what the "variance" of these multiple solutions is. To do this, one needs to spell out the stochastic constraints that can allow us to make sense of the words "average" and "variance" in a mathematically rigorous way. Such a quantitative approach would be particularly well suited for such systems as the planned precipitation radar of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). Indeed, one would then be able to use the radar reflectivities measured by the TRMM radar to estimate the rain-rate profile that would most likely have produced the measurements, as well as the uncertainty in the estimated rain rates as a function of range. Such an optimal approach is described in this paper.

Haddad, Ziad S.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Constraining the Sulfur Dioxide Degassing Flux from Turrialba Volcano, Costa Rica Using Unmanned Aerial System Measurements

Observed sulfur dioxide (SO2)mixing ratios onboard unmanned aerial systems (UAS) duringMarch 11-13, 2013 are used to constrain the three-day averaged SO2 degassing flux fromTurrialba volcanowithin a Bayesian inverse modeling framework. A mesoscale model coupled with Lagrangian stochastic particle backward trajectories is used to quantify the source-receptor relationships at very high spatial resolutions (i.e., b1 km). The model shows better performance in reproducing the near-surface meteorological properties and observed SO2 variations when using a first-order closure non-local planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme. The optimized SO2 degassing fluxes vary from 0.59 +/- 0.37 to 0.83 +/- 0.33 kt d−1 depending on the PBL scheme used. These fluxes are in good agreement with ground-based gas flux measurements, and correspond to corrective scale factors of 8-12 to the posteruptive SO2 degassing rate in the AeroCom emission inventory. The maximum a posteriori solution for the SO2 flux is highly sensitive to the specification of prior and observational errors, and relatively insensitive to the SO2 loss term and temporal averaging of observations. Our results indicate relatively low degassing activity but sustained sulfur emissions from Turrialba volcano to the troposphere during March 2013. This study demonstrates the utility of low-cost small UAS platforms for volcanic gas composition and flux analysis.

Xi, Xin↗
DOE OSTI2024

Optimal Zeno Dragging for Quantum Control: A Shortcut to Zeno with Action-Based Scheduling Optimization

The quantum Zeno effect asserts that quantum measurements inhibit simultaneous unitary dynamics when the “collapse” events are sufficiently strong and frequent. This applies in the limit of strong continuous measurement or dissipation. It is possible to implement a dissipative control that is known as “Zeno dragging” by dynamically varying the monitored observable, and hence also the eigenstates, which are attractors under Zeno dynamics. This is similar to adiabatic processes, in that the Zeno-dragging fidelity is highest when the rate of eigenstate change is slow compared to the measurement rate. We demonstrate here two theoretical methods for using such dynamics to achieve control of quantum systems. The first, which we shall refer to as “shortcut to Zeno,” is analogous to the shortcuts to adiabaticity (counterdiabatic driving) that are frequently used to accelerate unitary adiabatic evolution. In the second approach, we apply the Chantasri-Dressel-Jordan stochastic action [PRA 88, 042110 (2013)], and demonstrate that the extremal-probability readout paths derived from this are well suited to setting up a Pontryagin-style optimization of the Zeno-dragging schedule. A fundamental contribution of the latter approach is to show that an action suitable for measurement-driven control optimization can be derived quite generally from statistical arguments. Implementing these methods on the Zeno dragging of a qubit, we find that both approaches yield the same solution, namely, that the optimal control is a unitary that matches the motion of the Zeno-monitored eigenstate. We then show that such a solution can be more robust than a unitary-only operation and we comment on solvable generalizations of our qubit example embedded in larger systems. These methods open up new pathways toward systematically developing dynamic control of Zeno subspaces to realize dissipatively stabilized quantum operations. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Physics↗