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At least 1,297 records · Page 72

Manifold learning for coarse-graining atomistic simulations: Application to amorphous solids

In this work, we introduce a generalized machine learning framework to probabilistically parameterize upper-scale models in the form of nonlinear PDEs consistent with a continuum theory, based on coarse-grained atomistic simulation data of mechanical deformation and flow processes. The proposed framework utilizes a hypothesized coarse-graining methodology with manifold learning and surrogate-based optimization techniques. Coarse-grained high-dimensional data describing quantities of interest of the multiscale models are projected onto a nonlinear manifold whose geometric and topological structure is exploited for measuring behavioral discrepancies in the form of manifold distances. A surrogate model is constructed using Gaussian process regression to identify a mapping between stochastic parameters and distances. Derivative-free optimization is employed to adaptively identify a unique set of parameters of the upper-scale model capable of rapidly reproducing the system's behavior while maintaining consistency with coarse-grained atomic-level simulations. The proposed method is applied to learn the parameters of the shear transformation zone (STZ) theory of plasticity that describes plastic deformation in amorphous solids as well as coarse-graining parameters needed to translate between atomistic and continuum representations. We show that the methodology is able to successfully link coarse-grained microscale simulations to macroscale observables and achieve a high-level of parity between the models across scales.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Stochastic stability properties of jump linear systems

Jump linear systems are defined as a family of linear systems with randomly jumping parameters (usually governed by a Markov jump process) and are used to model systems subject to failures or changes in structure. The authors study stochastic stability properties in jump linear systems and the relationship among various moment and sample path stability properties. It is shown that all second moment stability properties are equivalent and are sufficient for almost sure sample path stability, and a testable necessary and sufficient condition for second moment stability is derived. The Lyapunov exponent method for the study of almost sure sample stability is discussed, and a theorem which characterizes the Lyapunov exponents of jump linear systems is presented.

Feng, Xiangbo↗

Uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis of a nuclear thermal propulsion reactor startup sequence

The research presented in this article describes progress in applying stochastic methods, uncertainty quantification, parametric studies, and variance-based sensitivity analysis (also known as Sobol sensitivity analysis) to a full-core model of a nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) system simulated via the radiation transport code Griffin to simulate neutronics. Our goal is to develop a reduced-order (surrogate) model that can be rapidly sampled with perturbations to multiple input parameters. In this NTP system, reactivity and power feedback affect the rotation of control drums (CDs), which is itself controlled by a hybrid proportional-integral-derivative (PID) controller actuated by the power demand and reactivity feedback from the numerical model. This model uses reactor kinetic feedback (mean generation time [Λ] and effective delayed neutron fraction [ β eff ] from a transient Griffin simulation executed via Griffin’s improved quasi-static solver to provide the kinetic parameters) as inputs to functions that control the CD rotation angle. By investigating numerous stochastic approaches, we developed a dual-purpose surrogate model of the NTP system, using polynomial regression in the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) Stochastic Tools Module (STM). The trained model can be rapidly sampled while simultaneously perturbing various input parameters, such as coefficients on the PID control or temperature (directly affecting the neutron cross section). The surrogate model delivers accurate (within 5%) results at speeds orders of magnitude faster (minutes, not days of computational time) than the base model. Once the surrogate model has been trained, distributions of the uncertain parameters can be changed at will to investigate the effects of perturbing multiple inputs as well as the effects of these inputs on the model output. For example, coefficients used in the PID control system may vary due to some type of physical interference, or uncertainty may exist in the temperature of the neutron cross sections in various regions of the reactor. A distribution can be placed on these parameters, and operational boundaries can be determined. The goal of this work is to support development of an advanced control system for operating CDs in a functioning NTP system. This work is a scoping study of the MOOSE STM.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗

Soft de Sitter Effective Theory

Calculating the quantum evolution of a de Sitter universe on superhorizon scales is notoriously difficult. To address this challenge, we introduce the Soft de Sitter Effective Theory (SdSET). This framework holds for superhorizon modes whose comoving momentum is far below the UV scale, which is set by the inverse comoving horizon. The SdSET is formulated using the same approach that yields the Heavy Quark Effective Theory. The degrees of freedom that capture the long wavelength dynamics are identified with the growing and decaying solutions to the equations of motion. The operator expansion is organized using a power counting scheme, and loops can be regulated while respecting the low energy symmetries. For massive quantum fields in a fixed de Sitter background, power counting implies that all interactions beyond the horizon are irrelevant. Alternatively, if the fields are very light, the leading interactions are at most marginal, and resumming the associated logarithms using (dynamical) renormalization group techniques yields the evolution equation for canonical stochastic inflation. The SdSET is also applicable to models where gravity is dynamical, including inflation. In this case, diffeomorphism invariance ensures that all interactions are irrelevant, trivially implying the all-orders conservation of adiabatic density fluctuations and gravitational waves. We briefly touch on the application to slow-roll eternal inflation by identifying novel relevant operators. This work serves to demystify many aspects of perturbation theory outside the horizon, and has a variety of applications to problems of cosmological interest.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Scalable probabilistic estimates of electric vehicle charging given observed driver behavior

To prepare for rapid growth in global electric vehicle adoption, grid and policy planners depend on detailed forecasts of future charging demand. In this paper we propose a novel holistic, scalable, probabilistic framework to produce large-scale estimates of electric vehicle charging load for long-term planning that capture real drivers’ charging patterns. Our framework captures the uncertainty and stochasticity in charging demand by taking a graphical modeling approach. It has three core elements: driver groups, charging segment choices, and charging session time and energy requirements. The framework uses hierarchical clustering to group drivers by their charging histories, capturing their heterogeneous behaviors and preferences across different segments or types of charging. The framework uses probabilistic mixture models for each driver group’s sessions to identify the unique charging behaviors observed within each segment. We illustrate its application with a large data set from California, profiling the charging patterns and unique driver clusters it identifies. Using the model knobs representing drivers’ battery capacities, behavior, and segment access we present scenarios for California’s charging demand in 2030 with 8 million passenger electric vehicles. Peak charging demand ranged from 3.3 to 8.7 GW across scenarios. Furthermore, each was calculated in under 45 s on a laptop computer.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Variational deep learning of equilibrium transition path ensembles

Here, we present a time-dependent variational method to learn the mechanisms of equilibrium reactive processes and efficiently evaluate their rates within a transition path ensemble. This approach builds off of the variational path sampling methodology by approximating the time-dependent commitment probability within a neural network ansatz. The reaction mechanisms inferred through this approach are elucidated by a novel decomposition of the rate in terms of the components of a stochastic path action conditioned on a transition. This decomposition affords an ability to resolve the typical contribution of each reactive mode and their couplings to the rare event. The associated rate evaluation is variational and systematically improvable through the development of a cumulant expansion. We demonstrate this method in both over- and under-damped stochastic equations of motion, in low-dimensional model systems, and in the isomerization of a solvated alanine dipeptide. In all examples, we find that we can obtain quantitatively accurate estimates of the rates of the reactive events with minimal trajectory statistics and gain unique insights into transitions through the analysis of their commitment probability.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Static and shock compression studies of eutectic high-entropy alloy AlCoCrFeNi 2.1 to ultrahigh pressures

The high-entropy alloy with composition AlCoCrFeNi 2.1 , additively manufactured with the laser powder-bed fusion technique, has a far-from-equilibrium BCC/FCC eutectic nanolamellar structure. We studied the high-pressure response of this alloy under both static compression and high-strain rate shock compression. The response to static compression using a diamond anvil cell was studied at pressures up to 302 GPa with synchrotron x-ray diffraction at the advanced photon source. The high-pressure FCC-only phase of the EHEA previously observed by Pope et al. [AIP Adv. 13, 035124 (2023)] is found to be stable up to the highest pressure achieved in this study with a volume compression of V/V 0 = 0.587 at ambient temperature. The shock experiments were performed by using GEKKO XII lasers at the Institute of Laser Engineering, Osaka University. The principal Hugoniot equation-of-state of the EHEA was measured up to a pressure of 515 GPa and a compression of V/V 0 = 0.613. Additionally, the thermal equation of state of the EHEA was measured up to 6.2 GPa and 1623 K using a large-volume Paris–Edinburgh cell to obtain the temperature dependence of bulk modulus and thermal expansion coefficients. The melting temperature for EHEA AlCoCrFeNi 2.1 at a pressure of 5.6 GPa was measured to be 1648 ± 25 K. These results can be used to refine stochastic (or special) quasi-random structure (SQS) models for high-pressure high-temperature behavior of high-entropy alloys.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Full Counting Statistics of Charge in Chaotic Many-Body Quantum Systems

We investigate the full counting statistics of charge transport in U(1)-symmetric random unitary circuits. We consider an initial mixed state prepared with a chemical potential imbalance between the left and right halves of the system and study the fluctuations of the charge transferred across the central bond in typical circuits. Using an effective replica statistical mechanics model and a mapping onto an emergent classical stochastic process valid at large on-site Hilbert space dimension, we show that charge transfer fluctuations approach those of the symmetric exclusion process at long times, with subleading t –1/2 quantum corrections. Here, we discuss our results in the context of fluctuating hydrodynamics and macroscopic fluctuation theory of classical nonequilibrium systems and check our predictions against direct matrix-product state calculations.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

An automated approach to the alignment of compound refractive lenses

Compound refractive lenses (CRLs) are established X-ray focusing optics, and are used to focus the beam or image the sample in many beamlines at X-ray facilities. While CRLs are quite established, the stack of single lens elements affords a very small numerical aperture because of the thick lens profile, making them far more difficult to align than classical optical lenses that obey the thin-lens approximation. This means that the alignment must be very precise and is highly sensitive to changes to the incident beam, often requiring regular readjustments. Some groups circumvent the full realignment procedure by using engineering controls ( e.g. mounting optics) that sacrifice some of the beam's focusing precision, i.e. spot size, or resolution. While these choices minimize setup time, there are clear disadvantages. This work presents a new automated approach to align CRLs using a simple alignment apparatus that is easy to adapt and install at different types of X-ray experiments or facilities. This approach builds on recent CRL modeling efforts, using an approach based on the Stochastic Nelder–Mead (SNM) simplex method. This method is outlined and its efficacy is demonstrated with numerical simulation that is tested in real experiments conducted at the Advanced Photon Source to confirm its performance with a synchrotron beam. This work provides an opportunity to automate key instrumentation at X-ray facilities.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Evaluation of Two-Dimensional to One-Dimensional Site Response for Idaho National Laboratory

We perform two-dimensional (2D) site response analyses accounting for spatial variability of soil properties and subsurface geometry of the Eastern Snake River Plane (ESRP), and quantify their effects on ground surface motion relative to one-dimensional (1D) site response analyses at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). We first present the development of random field idealizations of the repeated basalt lava flows, heterogeneously inter-layered with sediments, from seismic velocity data collected over four decades in the ESRP. Using realizations of the stochastic fields mapped on 2D deterministic finite element models, we perform 2D viscoelastic and equivalent-linear wave propagation simulations, and quantify the mean and variance of site response aggravation factors, defined as the response spectral ratio of 2D to 1D analyses on the ground surface. Results are shown to be insensitive to the constitutive material behavior considered here, for strains induced by rock outcrop peak ground acceleration (PGA) as high as 0.7g: viscoelastic and equivalent-linear analyses predict peak mean 2D/1D aggravation factor 1.05 at period T=0.075 sec (i.e. the 2D response spectrum is 5% higher than the corresponding 1D at that period, on average), which corresponds to the wavelength of the horizontal correlation length of the random field (50m). For periods longer than the fundamental period of the site (here, T 1 =0.3125 sec), the propagating wavelengths are too long to be affected by the 1D site response and the aggravation factor becomes equal to 1. The standard deviation of the natural logarithms of the 2D/1D aggravation factors is ~0.15 for periods shorter than the fundamental period of the site, and decays thereafter at a steady rate.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Attack-Resilient Weighted $\ell_{1}$ Observer with Prior Pruning

Security related questions for Cyber Physical Systems (CPS) have attracted much research attention in searching for novel methods for attack-resilient control and/or estimation. Specifically, false data injection attacks (FDIAs) have been shown to be capable of bypassing bad data detection (BDD), while arbitrarily compromising the integrity of state estimators and robust controller even with very sparse measurements corruption. Moreover, based on the inherent sparsity of pragmatic attack signals, ℓ1 -minimization scheme has been used extensively to improve the design of attack-resilient estimators. For this, the theoretical maximum for the percentage of compromised nodes that can be accommodated has been shown to be 50%. In order to guarantee correct state recoveries for larger percentage of attacked nodes, researchers have begun to incorporate prior information into the underlying resilient observer design framework. For the most pragmatic cases, this prior information is often obtained through some data-driven machine learning process. Existing results have shown strong positive correlation between the tolerated attack percentages and the precision of the prior information. In this paper, we present a pruning method to improve the precision of the prior information, given corresponding stochastic uncertainty characteristics of the underlying machine learning model. Then a weighted ℓ1 -minimization is proposed based on the pruned prior. The theoretical and simulation results show that the pruning method significantly improves the observer performance for much larger attack percentages, even when moderately accurate machine learning model used.

Resilient observer, Cyber-physical systems, prunin↗

Application of the GERTS II simulator in the industrial environment.

GERT was originally developed to aid in the analysis of stochastic networks. GERT can be used to graphically model and analyze complex systems. Recently a simulator model, GERTS II, has been developed to solve GERT Networks. The simulator language used in the development of this model was GASP II A. This paper discusses the possible application of GERTS II to model and analyze (1) assembly line operations, (2) project management networks, (3) conveyor systems and (4) inventory systems. Finally, an actual application dealing with a job shop loading problem is presented.

Whitehouse, G. E.↗

Modern control concepts in hydrology

Two approaches to an identification problem in hydrology are presented based upon concepts from modern control and estimation theory. The first approach treats the identification of unknown parameters in a hydrologic system subject to noisy inputs as an adaptive linear stochastic control problem; the second approach alters the model equation to account for the random part in the inputs, and then uses a nonlinear estimation scheme to estimate the unknown parameters. Both approaches use state-space concepts. The identification schemes are sequential and adaptive and can handle either time invariant or time dependent parameters. They are used to identify parameters in the Prasad model of rainfall-runoff. The results obtained are encouraging and conform with results from two previous studies; the first using numerical integration of the model equation along with a trial-and-error procedure, and the second, by using a quasi-linearization technique. The proposed approaches offer a systematic way of analyzing the rainfall-runoff process when the input data are imbedded in noise.

Duong, N.↗

Modern control concepts in hydrology

Two approaches to an identification problem in hydrology are presented, based upon concepts from modern control and estimation theory. The first approach treats the identification of unknown parameters in a hydrologic system subject to noisy inputs as an adaptive linear stochastic control problem; the second approach alters the model equation to account for the random part in the inputs, and then uses a nonlinear estimation scheme to estimate the unknown parameters. Both approaches use state-space concepts. The identification schemes are sequential and adaptive and can handle either time-invariant or time-dependent parameters. They are used to identify parameters in the Prasad model of rainfall-runoff. The results obtained are encouraging and confirm the results from two previous studies; the first using numerical integration of the model equation along with a trial-and-error procedure, and the second using a quasi-linearization technique. The proposed approaches offer a systematic way of analyzing the rainfall-runoff process when the input data are imbedded in noise.

Duong, N.↗

Application of a hierarchical structure stochastic learning automation

A hierarchical structure automaton was developed using a two state stochastic learning automato (SLA) in a time shared model. Application of the hierarchical SLA to systems with multidimensional, multimodal performance criteria is described. Results of experiments performed with the hierarchical SLA using a performance index with a superimposed noise component of ? or - delta distributed uniformly over the surface are discussed.

Neville, R. G.↗

A stochastic-dynamical approach to the study of the natural variability of the climate

A method, suggested by Leith (1975), which employed stochastic-dynamic forecasts obtained from a general circulation model in such a way as to satisfy the definition of climatic noise, was used to validate assumptions accounting for the effects of external influences in estimating the climatic noise. Two assumptions were investigated: (1) that the weather fluctuations can be represented as a Markov process, and (2) that changing external conditions do not influence the atmosphere's statistical properties on short time scales. The general circulation model's simulation of the daily weather fluctuations was generated by performing integrations with prescribed climatological boundary conditions for random initial atmospheric states, with resulting dynamical forecasts providing an ensemble of simulated data for the autoregressive modeling of weather fluctuations. To estimate the climatic noise from the observational data (consisting of hourly values of sea level pressure and surface temperature at 54 U.S. stations for the month of January for the years 1949-1975) use of the short time-scale assumption is made. The simulated and observed data were found not to be consistent with either white noise or a Markov process of weather fluctuations. Good agreement was found between the results of the hypothetical testing of the simulated and the observed surface temperatures; and only partial support was found for the short time-scale assumption, i.e., for sea level pressure.

Straus, D. M.↗

Technology programs and related policies - Impacts on communications satellite business ventures

The DOMSAT II stochastic communication satellite business venture financial planning simulation model is described. The specification of business scenarios and the results of several analyses are presented. In particular, the impacts of NASA on-orbit propulsion and power technology programs are described. The effects of insurance rates and self-insurance and of the use of the Space Shuttle and Ariane transportation systems on a typical fixed satellite service business venture are discussed.

Greenberg, J. S.↗

The economics of satellite retrieval

The economics of space operations with and without the Space Station have been studied in terms of the financial performance of a typical communications-satellite business venture. A stochastic Monte-Carlo communications-satellite business model is employed which includes factors such as satellite configuration, random and wearout failures, reliability of launch and space operations, stand-down time resulting from failures, and insurance by operation. Financial performance impacts have been evaluated in terms of the magnitude of investment, net present value, and return on investment.

Price, Kent M.↗