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At least 1,297 records · Page 72

Anomalous Transport of High Energy Cosmic Rays in Galactic Superbubbles

High-energy cosmic rays may exhibit anomalous transport as they traverse and are accelerated by a collection of supernovae explosions in a galactic superbubble. Signatures of this anomalous transport can show up in the particles' evolution and their spectra. In a continuous-time-random- walk (CTRW) model assuming standard diffusive shock acceleration theory (DSA) for each shock encounter, and where the superbubble (an OB stars association) is idealized as a heterogeneous region of particle sources and sinks, acceleration and transport in the superbubble can be shown to be sub-diffusive. While the sub-diffusive transport can be attributed to the stochastic nature of the acceleration time according to DSA theory, the spectral break appears to be an artifact of transport in a finite medium. These CTRW simulations point to a new and intriguing phenomenon associated with the statistical nature of collective acceleration of high energy cosmic rays in galactic superbubbles.

Barghouty, Nasser F.↗

Investigation of the Potential Saturation of Information from Global Navigation Satellite System Radio Occultation Observations with an Observing System Simulation Experiment

The potential impact of large numbers of Global Navigation Satellite System radio occultation (GNSS-RO) observations on numerical weather prediction is investigated using a global observing system simulation experiment (OSSE). The hybrid four-dimensional ensemble variational Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) data assimilation system and Global Earth Observing System (GEOS) model are used to ingest up to 100,000 GNSS-RO soundings per day in addition to the current suite of conventional and radiance data. Analysis quality, forecast skill, and forecast sensitivity to observation impact are examined with differing quantities of additional GNSS-RO profiles. It is found that saturation of information from additional RO soundings has not been reached with 100,000 soundings per day. There are some indications of suboptimal performance of the GSI in handling GNSS-RO observations particularly in the middle and lower tropospheric extratropics.

GNSS-RO↗

Model Assisted Probability of Detection for NASA Space Missions

Model assisted probability of detection (MAPOD) uses data from simulations to improve a traditional probability of detection (POD) study. This could include extending the parameter space to reduce uncertainty or substituting experimental data with simulated data to reduce the time and cost of a POD study. In the past MAPOD was difficult due to limited computational resources, but recent innovations in simulation tools and high-performance computing have made this type of high-degree-of-freedom modeling possible, and complex structures have made it necessary. This presentation will summarize the work done by the computational nondestructive evaluation (CNDE) specialists within the Nondestructive Evaluation Sciences branch at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) to complete a MAPOD study for phased array ultrasound testing (PAUT) of a friction stir welding (FSW) method to be used on Space Launch System (SLS) structures. The three critical needs for a MAPOD study are a validated and verified model of the inspection technique for the structure being inspected, some experimental POD data, and an uncertainty model for both the model and the experimental data. PAUT was simulated using Extende CIVA’s UT module. The model was validated using laboratory inspection data from NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) for a Hit/Miss POD for FSW in 2219-T87 aluminum panels representative of those used in the SLS. This model was then used to simulate flaw sizes that were originally omitted from the original POD study. The results of this new MAPOD study will be presented along with a discussion of the methods and processes used to analyze the original data, selected simulation parameters, and development of the uncertainty model used for the statistical analysis. The goal of this effort is not just to improve the POD study but to demonstrate the value of MAPOD and provide a roadmap for application of MAPOD on future projects.

Elizabeth Gregory↗

Model Assisted Probability of Detection for NASA Space Missions

Model assisted probability of detection (MAPOD) uses data from simulations to improve a traditional probability of detection (POD) study. This could include extending the parameter space to reduce uncertainty or substituting experimental data with simulated data to reduce the time and cost of a POD study. In the past MAPOD was difficult due to limited computational resources, but recent innovations in simulation tools and high-performance computing have made this type of high-degree-of-freedom modelling possible, and complex structures have made it necessary. This presentation will summarize the work done by the computational nondestructive evaluation (CNDE) group at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) to complete a MAPOD study for phased array ultrasound testing (PAUT) of a friction stir welding (FSW) method to be used on Space Launch System (SLS) structures. The three critical needs for a MAPOD study are a validated and verified model of the inspection technique for the structure being inspected, some experimental POD data, and an uncertainty model for both the model and the experimental data. PAUT was simulated using Extende CIVA’s UT module. The model was validated using laboratory inspection data from NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) for a Hit/Miss POD for FSW in 2219-T87 aluminum panels representative of those used in the SLS. This model was then used to simulate flaw sizes that were originally omitted from the original POD study. The results of this new MAPOD study will be presented along with a discussion of the methods and processes used to analyze the original data, selected simulation parameters, and development of the uncertainty model used for the statistical analysis. The goal of this effort is not just to improve the POD study but to demonstrate the value of MAPOD and provide a roadmap for application of MAPOD on future projects.

Elizabeth Gregory↗

Methane Emissions Produced by Pneumatic Devices and Produced Water Tanks on Natural Gas Wellsites

In recent years, more scrutiny has been placed on the release of greenhouse gasses (GHGs) by the oil and gas industry in North America as climate concerns increase. In the coming years, stricter regulations proposed by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) concerning the release of GHGs will further direct attention to GHG emissions quantification, modeling, and overall reduction. Active natural gas wellsites employ production equipment that routinely emits methane during normal operation. Production equipment often includes, but is not limited to, gas production units (GPUs), pneumatic controllers (PCs) and actuators powered by produced natural gas, and produced water storage tanks. This work details direct methane emission measurements taken at active natural gas wellsites originating from intermittent pneumatic controllers and produced water storage tanks. Efforts to model methane flows originating from these sources are also detailed, and those results are compared to direct measurement. The direct methane emissions measurement campaign collected flow data from two active dry wellsites in the Marcellus shale region. These measurement campaigns captured, in total, several weeks of continuous data from these sites. Data included multiple pneumatic device vent flowrate channels, a single channel monitoring total emissions vented from the produced water storage tanks, and corresponding site weather data. Periodic composition measurements were taken from flows vented from produced water tanks. Computational modeling efforts attempted to mimic a given site’s methane emissions behavior given limited input parameters. Direct measurement data and simulation data yielded, through reduction and analysis, apparent methane emissions factors, statistics on pneumatic device actuation events, important relationships between GPU parameters and pneumatic device actuation events, produced water storage tank vent flows and flow compositions, and parameters most contributing to the magnitude and frequency of these fugitive methane emissions. Measurements, considering data from a 72hr period, produced PC emissions factors from 0.008 to 0.03 SCFH per device with an average device emitting 0.026 SCFH at the first site. The second site produced PC emissions factors spanning from 0.05 to 25.47 SCFH with an average device emitting 1.93 SCFH not including the 25.47 SCFH device, which was assumed to be malfunctioning. Two unique water tank emission measurements were made, 618 g CH4 per hour and 32.6 g CH4 per hour. On a water basis, the water tank emissions factors were 0.66 and 0.042 kg CH4 per bbl of water, respectively.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Simulated Changes in Tropical Cyclone Size, Accumulated Cyclone Energy and Power Dissipation Index in a Warmer Climate

Detection, attribution and projection of changes in tropical cyclone intensity statistics are made difficult from the potentially decreasing overall storm frequency combined with increases in the peak winds of the most intense storms as the climate warms. Multi-decadal simulations of stabilized climate scenarios from a high-resolution tropical cyclone permitting atmospheric general circulation model are used to examine simulated global changes from warmer temperatures, if any, in estimates of tropical cyclone size, accumulated cyclonic energy and power dissipation index. Changes in these metrics are found to be complicated functions of storm categorization and global averages of them are unlikely to easily reveal the impact of climate change on future tropical cyclone intensity statistics.

Wehner, Michael (ORCID:0000000159910082)↗

Parametric Study of Decay of Homogeneous Isotropic Turbulence Using Large Eddy Simulation

Numerical simulations of decaying homogeneous isotropic turbulence are performed with both low-order and high-order spatial discretization schemes. The turbulent Mach and Reynolds numbers for the simulations are 0.2 and 250, respectively. For the low-order schemes we use either second-order central or third-order upwind biased differencing. For higher order approximations we apply weighted essentially non-oscillatory (WENO) schemes, both with linear and nonlinear weights. There are two objectives in this preliminary effort to investigate possible schemes for large eddy simulation (LES). One is to explore the capability of a widely used low-order computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code to perform LES computations. The other is to determine the effect of higher order accuracy (fifth, seventh, and ninth order) achieved with high-order upwind biased WENO-based schemes. Turbulence statistics, such as kinetic energy, dissipation, and skewness, along with the energy spectra from simulations of the decaying turbulence problem are used to assess and compare the various numerical schemes. In addition, results from the best performing schemes are compared with those from a spectral scheme. The effects of grid density, ranging from 32 cubed to 192 cubed, on the computations are also examined. The fifth-order WENO-based scheme is found to be too dissipative, especially on the coarser grids. However, with the seventh-order and ninth-order WENO-based schemes we observe a significant improvement in accuracy relative to the lower order LES schemes, as revealed by the computed peak in the energy dissipation and by the energy spectrum.

Swanson, R. C.↗

Direct simulations of wall-bounded compressible turbulence

A study has been initiated on the effects of compressibility (Mach number) on turbulent boundary layers. An understanding of both qualitative (turbulence structures, physical processes) and quantitative (turbulence statistics) effects are desired. This understanding should lead to better turbulence models for applications involving supersonic wall-bounded flows. Direct numerical simulations of an idealized problem will be used to accomplish these objectives. Among several possibilities we chose plane Couette flow with constant-temperature walls as the first problem to be studied. The lack of mean streamwise pressure gradient plus isothermal walls implies that both horizontal directions can be assumed to be homogeneous and that the flow can reach a statistically steady state. Together, these features greatly simplify the calculations and analyses of the results. To date, an algorithm has been developed and implemented (but not yet fully tested) for the accurate solution of the Navier-Stokes equations with the assumptions noted above.

Buell, J. C.↗

Deep Learning for Subgrid‐Scale Turbulence Modeling in Large‐Eddy Simulations of the Convective Atmospheric Boundary Layer

Abstract In large‐eddy simulations, subgrid‐scale (SGS) processes are parameterized as a function of filtered grid‐scale variables. First‐order, algebraic SGS models are based on the eddy‐viscosity assumption, which does not always hold for turbulence. Here we apply supervised deep neural networks (DNNs) to learn SGS stresses from a set of neighboring coarse‐grained velocity from direct numerical simulations of the convective boundary layer at friction Reynolds numbers Re τ up to 1243 without invoking the eddy‐viscosity assumption. The DNN model was found to produce higher correlation between SGS stresses compared to the Smagorinsky model and the Smagorinsky‐Bardina mixed model in the surface and mixed layers and can be applied to different grid resolutions and various stability conditions ranging from near neutral to very unstable. The DNN model can capture key statistics of turbulence in a posteriori (online) tests when applied to large‐eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary layer.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Simulation of charged particle transport on the MPP

Computations of cosmic ray transport based upon finite difference methods are afflicted by instabilities, inaccuracies, and artifacts. To avoid these problems, a Monte Carlo formulation was developed which is closely related not only to the finite difference formulation, but also to the underlying physics of transport phenomena. Implementations of this approach are currently running on the Massively Parallel Processor at Goddard, whose enormous computing power overwhelms the poor statistical accuracy that usually limits the use of stochastic methods. In a Monte Carlo simulation of rectilinear transport, the coherent and diffusive effects that appeared are in good quantitative agreement with both finite difference and analytical calculations.

Earl, James A.↗

Map-level baryonification: unified treatment of weak lensing two-point and higher-order statistics

Precision cosmology benefits from extracting maximal information from cosmic structures, motivating the use of higher-order statistics (HOS) at small spatial scales. However, predicting how baryonic processes modify matter statistics at these scales has been challenging. The baryonic correction model (BCM) addresses this by modifying dark-matter-only simulations to mimic baryonic effects, providing a flexible, simulation-based framework for predicting both two-point and HOS. We show that a 3-parameter version of the BCM can jointly fit weak lensing maps' two-point statistics, wavelet phase harmonics coefficients, scattering coefficients, and the third and fourth moments to within 2% accuracy across all scales ℓ < 2000 and tomographic bins for a DES-Y3-like redshift distribution ( z ≲ 2), using the FLAMINGO simulations. These results demonstrate the viability of BCM-assisted, simulation-based weak lensing inference of two-point and HOS, paving the way for robust cosmological constraints that fully exploit non-Gaussian information on small spatial scales.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Statistical Mechanics and Dynamics of the Outer Solar System.I. The Jupiter/Saturn Zone

We report on numerical simulations designed to understand how the solar system evolved through a winnowing of planetesimals accreeted from the early solar nebula. This sorting process is driven by the energy and angular momentum and continues to the present day. We reconsider the existence and importance of stable niches in the Jupiter/Saturn Zone using greatly improved numerical techniques based on high-order optimized multi-step integration schemes coupled to roundoff error minimizing methods.

numerical simulations planetesimals planet formati↗

Software for Simulating Remote Sensing Systems

The Application Research Toolbox (ART) is a collection of computer programs that implement algorithms and mathematical models for simulating remote sensing systems. The ART is intended to be especially useful for performing design-tradeoff studies and statistical analyses to support the rational development of design requirements for multispectral imaging systems. Among other things, the ART affords a capability to synthesize coarser-spatial-resolution image-data sets from finer-spatial-resolution data sets and multispectral-image-data products from hyperspectral-image-data products. The ART also provides for synthesis of image-degradation effects, including point-spread functions, misregistration of spectral images, and noise. The ART can utilize real or synthetic data sets, along with sensor specifications, to create simulated data sets. In one example of a typical application, simulated data pertaining to an existing multispectral sensor system are used to verify the data collected by the system in operation. In the case of a proposed sensor system, the simulated data can be used to conduct trade studies and statistical analyses to ensure that the sensor system will satisfy the requirements of potential scientific, academic, and commercial user communities.

Zanoni, Vicki↗

Software for Simulating Remote Sensing Systems

The Application Research Toolbox (ART) is a collection of computer programs that implement algorithms and mathematical models for simulating remote sensing systems. The ART is intended to be especially useful for performing design-tradeoff studies and statistical analyses to support the rational development of design requirements for multispectral imaging systems. Among other things, the ART affords a capability to synthesize coarser-spatial-resolution image-data sets from finer-spatial-resolution data sets and multispectral-image-data products from hyperspectral-image-data products. The ART also provides for synthesis of image-degradation effects, including point-spread functions, misregistration of spectral images, and noise. The ART can utilize real or synthetic data sets, along with sensor specifications, to create simulated data sets. In one example of a typical application, simulated data pertaining to an existing multispectral sensor system are used to verify the data collected by the system in operation. In the case of a proposed sensor system, the simulated data can be used to conduct trade studies and statistical analyses to ensure that the sensor system will satisfy the requirements of potential scientific, academic, and commercial user communities.

Vicki Zanoni↗

Application of a Monte Carlo accuracy assessment tool to TDRS and GPS

In support of a NASA study on the application of radio interferometry to satellite orbit determination, MITRE developed a simulation tool for assessing interferometric tracking accuracy. Initially, the tool was applied to the problem of determining optimal interferometric station siting for orbit determination of the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite (TDRS). Subsequently, the Orbit Determination Accuracy Estimator (ODAE) was expanded to model the general batch maximum likelihood orbit determination algorithms of the Goddard Trajectory Determination System (GTDS) with measurement types including not only group and phase delay from radio interferometry, but also range, range rate, angular measurements, and satellite-to-satellite measurements. The user of ODAE specifies the statistical properties of error sources, including inherent observable imprecision, atmospheric delays, station location uncertainty, and measurement biases. Upon Monte Carlo simulation of the orbit determination process, ODAE calculates the statistical properties of the error in the satellite state vector and any other parameters for which a solution was obtained in the orbit determination. This paper presents results from ODAE application to two different problems: (1)determination of optimal geometry for interferometirc tracking of TDRS, and (2) expected orbit determination accuracy for Global Positioning System (GPS) tracking of low-earth orbit (LEO) satellites. Conclusions about optimal ground station locations for TDRS orbit determination by radio interferometry are presented, and the feasibility of GPS-based tracking for IRIDIUM, a LEO mobile satellite communications (MOBILSATCOM) system, is demonstrated.

Pavloff, Michael S.↗

Excercise Within LBNP as an Artificial Gravity Countermeasure

Previous exercise in space has lacked sufficient loads to maintain preflight cardiovascular and musculoskeletal mass and function. Lower body negative pressure (LBNP) produces a static force equivalent to one Earth body weight by each 52 mm Hg of LBNP during supine posture. LBNP also provides transmural blood pressures simulating upright exercise. Thus, this artificial-gravity concept may help maintain cardiovascular and musculoskeletal systems of crewmembers during prolonged exposure to microgravity. Currently available, bungee cord assisted, treadmill exercise is limited by harness discomfort, lower than normal loads, abnormal post-flight gait, and the absence of gravitational blood pressures within the vascular system. PURPOSE: This project evaluates a method to create artificial gravity using supine LBNP treadmill exercise to prevent loss of physiologic function in microgravity simulated by 30 days of bed rest. Identical twins were used as volunteers so that statistical power could be maximized. This countermeasure is being transitioned to space flight. CURRENT STATUS OF RESEARCH Methods: Six sets of identical twins (6 females and 14 males, 21-36 years) remained in 6 head-down tilt (HDT) bed rest for 30 days to simulate prolonged microgravity. Six subjects were randomly selected to exercise supine in an LBNP chamber for 40 minutes six days per week (EX group), while their twin brothers served as non-exercise controls (CON). Pressure within the exercise LBNP chamber was adjusted to increase load, hence increasing exercise intensity. During supine treadmill exercise, LBNP (52-63 mmHg) was applied to produce foot ward forces equivalent to those for upright running on Earth at 1.0-1.2 times body weight (BW) and subjects performed an interval exercise protocol (40-80% peak exercise capacity [VO2pk]). Five minutes of resting LBNP immediately followed each exercise session. Results: Orthostatic tolerance time decreased significantly after 30 days bed rest in the CON group, but was relatively maintained in the EX group. VO2pk was maintained in EX males, but not in CON males. Isokinetic knee strength (extension, peak torque) decreased significantly in CON males, but was preserved in EX males. The EX group had significantly higher spine muscle strength after bed rest than the CON group. The cross-sectional area of spinal muscle at L4/5 level decreased significantly in the CON group but not in the EX group. Urinary n-telopeptide excretion, an index of bone resorption, was increased during bed rest in CON, but not in EX subjects. This suggests protection by LBNP exercise against the increase in bone resorption typically seen in simulated and actual microgravity. Significant changes in bone mineral density (BMD) in the spine and ribs were observed in CON subjects, but not in EX subjects. Conclusions: Our treadmill exercise protocol within LBNP plus a short period of post-exercise LBNP maintains orthostatic responses, upright exercise capacity and other important physiologic parameters during bed rest. These results document the efficacy of our apparatus and exercise protocol for maintaining physiologic structure and function during long-duration microgravity as simulated by 30 days of HDT bed rest. FUTURE PLANS: More sets of female identical twins are needed to reach significance. The LBNP exercise chamber will be redesigned for flight.

Hargens, A. R.↗

Modeling regional precipitation over the Indus River basin of Pakistan using statistical downscaling

Complex processes govern spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation within the high-mountainous headwater regions (commonly known as the upper Indus basin (UIB)), of the Indus River basin of Pakistan. Reliable precipitation simulations particularly over the UIB present a major scientific challenge due to regional complexity and inadequate observational coverage. Here, we present a statistical downscaling approach to model observed precipitation of the entire Indus basin, with a focus on UIB within available data constraints. Taking advantage of recent high altitude (HA) observatories, we perform precipitation regionalization using K-means cluster analysis to demonstrate effectiveness of low-altitude stations to provide useful precipitation inferences over more uncertain and hydrologically important HA of the UIB. We further employ generalized linear models (GLM) with gamma and Tweedie distributions to identify major dynamic and thermodynamic drivers from a reanalysis dataset within a robust cross-validation framework that explain observed spatiotemporal precipitation patterns across the Indus basin. Final statistical models demonstrate higher predictability to resolve precipitation variability over wetter southern Himalayans and different lower Indus regions, by mainly using different dynamic predictors. The modeling framework also shows an adequate performance over more complex and uncertain trans-Himalayans and the northwestern regions of the UIB, particularly during the seasons dominated by the westerly circulations. However, the cryosphere-dominated trans-Himalayan regions, which largely govern the basin hydrology, require relatively complex models that contain dynamic and thermodynamic circulations. Furthermore, we also analyzed relevant atmospheric circulations during precipitation anomalies over the UIB, to evaluate physical consistency of the statistical models, as an additional measure of reliability. Overall, our results suggest that such circulation-based statistical downscaling has the potential to improve our understanding towards distinct features of the regional-scale precipitation across the upper and lower Indus basin. Additionally, such understanding should help to assess the response of this complex, data-scarce, and climate-sensitive river basin amid future climatic changes, to serve communal and scientific interests.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗