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DOE OSTI2023

National Prevalence of Caprine Prion Protein Genetic Variability at Codons 146, 211, and 222 in Goat Herds in the United States

Scrapie is a neurodegenerative disease that impacts sheep and goats, characterized by gradual and progressive changes in neurological function. Recent research shows that the scrapie incubation period is significantly influenced by specific variations in amino acids within the prion protein gene (PRNP). The objective of this study was to estimate the national prevalence of caprine PRNP genetic variability at codons 146, 211, and 222 in goat populations across the United States. A total of 3052 blood, ear tissue, and brain tissue samples were collected from goats from 50 states. The participating states were categorized into four Veterinary Service (VS) district regions. The samples underwent DNA extraction, and the PRNP variants corresponding to codons 146, 211, and 222 were amplified and sequenced. The analysis of PRNP variants, when compared to the PRNP reference sequence, revealed seven alleles in twelve genotypes. The homozygous 146NN, 211RR, and 222QQ alleles, which have been linked to an increased risk of scrapie, were found to be the most prevalent among all the goats. The heterozygous 222QK, 211RQ, 146SD, 146ND, and 146NS alleles and the homozygous 222KK, 146SS, and 146DD alleles, known to be associated with reduced scrapie susceptibility and a prolonged incubation period after experimental challenge, were found in 1.098% (222QK), 2.33% (211RQ), 0.58% (146SD), 3.13% (146ND), 20.68% (146NS), 0.005% (222KK), 3.31% (146SS), and 0.67% (146DD) of goats, respectively. The 222QK allele was found most frequently in goats tested from the east (VS District 1, 1.59%) and southwest (VS District 4, 1.08%) regions, whereas the 211RQ allele was found most often in goats tested from the Midwest (VS District 2, 8.03%) and east (VS District 1, 6.53%) regions. The 146NS allele was found most frequently in goats tested from the northwest (VS District 3, 29.02%) and southwest (VS District 4, 20.69%) regions. Our results showed that the prevalence of less susceptible genotypes at PRNP codon 146 may be sufficient to use genetic susceptibility testing in some herds. This may reduce the number of goats removed as part of a herd clean-up plan and may promote the selective breeding goats for less susceptible alleles in high-risk herds at the national level.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Meta-Analysis of Advanced Nuclear Reactor Cost Estimations

Supporting Data can be downloaded at: https://gain.inl.gov/content/uploads/4/2024/06/INL-RPT-24-77048-R1.xlsx Nuclear energy is a critical cornerstone of the current United States clean energy supply and may play a larger role in the future in support of a transition to a net-zero economy. The current fleet of nuclear reactors predominantly consists of large light-water reactors (LWRs), while many of the reactor designs under consideration are smaller and/or different technologies. Because these new designs have not yet been built, there is a high degree of uncertainty associated with their cost. This complicates energy-planning efforts because cost projections are not always standardized, consistent, and centralized in an easily accessible location. To help support energy planning in the US, this report provides advanced nuclear cost ranges using a transparent methodology along with other relevant information that can be used to help support decision making and energy planning. The purpose of this work was to conduct a methodical process for cost evaluation using only public information that was vetted with the end-goal to provide reference cost projections for nuclear energy. To provide a solid basis for these values, the approach and assumptions are explicitly laid out throughout the report allowing any user of the data to challenge or reconsider them. Because future US nuclear-reactor costs are still unknown due to little recent observed data, the report opted to compile a comprehensive list of bottom-up estimates and evaluate averages/trends within the data to identify reference ranges. This was deemed preferable to opining on the robustness or validity of one cost estimation versus another. To that end, the work evaluated thousands of lines of cost subaccounts from several bottom-up cost estimates. A wide variety of different reactor types captured in the data are of various sizes and technologies. Some of these reactors will be representative of advanced reactors under development while others will not. Thus, the results here are dependent on the data that are available and the accuracy of the estimates that are used. Each bottom-up estimate was reviewed to determine whether it was complete. Incomplete data sets were corrected to ensure an adequate basis of cross-comparison. The report is not without limitations and should be interpreted as an initial step to develop cost ranges for nuclear technology. Ultimately, future work can build upon the methodology with refined cost estimates to reduce uncertainty. US-based overnight capital cost (OCC) estimates were compiled from extensive data sets into ranges for both large and small reactor sizes for 2030. To project the cost declines over time, learning rates were sampled from literature sources. No SMRs were previously built; hence, learning rates based on bottom-up approaches (e.g., by quantifying the impact stemming from fabrication of different components, modular work, site construction, commissioning) were prioritized. For larger reactors, actual learning rates from deployments were used to project future costs (adjusted to account for standardization or lack thereof between designs). Other costs included are fixed and variable operations and maintenance costs. The final variables were capacity factors and ramp rates to support energy planning.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Scalable 3D reconstruction for X-ray single particle imaging with online machine learning

X-ray free-electron lasers offer unique capabilities for measuring the structure and dynamics of biomolecules, helping us understand the basic building blocks of life. Notably, high-repetition-rate free-electron lasers enable single particle imaging, where individual, weakly scattering biomolecules are imaged under near-physiological conditions with the opportunity to access fleeting states that cannot be captured in cryogenic or crystallized conditions. Existing X-ray single particle reconstruction algorithms, which estimate the particle orientation for each image independently, are slow and memory-intensive when handling the massive datasets generated by emerging free-electron lasers. Here, we introduce X-RAI (X-Ray single particle imaging with Amortized Inference), an online reconstruction framework that estimates the structure of 3D macromolecules from large X-ray single particle datasets. X-RAI consists of a convolutional encoder, which amortizes pose estimation over large datasets, as well as a physics-based decoder, which employs an implicit neural representation to enable high-quality 3D reconstruction in an end-to-end, self-supervised manner. We demonstrate that X-RAI achieves state-of-the-art performance for small-scale datasets in simulation and challenging experimental settings and demonstrate its unprecedented ability to process large datasets containing millions of diffraction images in an online fashion. These abilities signify a paradigm shift in X-ray single particle imaging towards real-time reconstruction.

Computer science↗

DOE OSTI2026

Crystal structure, magnetism, and specific heat of lightly depleted layered honeycomb oxides, Na$_2$(Ni$_{2-x}$D$_x$)TeO$_6$ ($D$ = Mg, Ga, Co; 0.10 ≤ $x$ ≤ 0.25)

Layered oxides, in which transition metal atoms form a honeycomb lattice, are known for complex magnetic phase diagrams. In this work we study the doped compounds, Na$_2$(Ni$_{2-x}$D$_x$)TeO$_6$, $D$ = Mg, Ga, and Co (0.10 ≤ $x$ ≤ 0.25), to understand how chemical dilution at the nickel site influences the stability of magnetic exchanges within the honeycomb layer of the parent, Na$_2$ Ni$_2$ TeO$_6$. Here, the studied compounds were found to crystallize in $P6_3/mcm$ space group common to P2 type layered oxides. In general, the lattice parameters and the unit cell volume expanded with increased doping. The oxidation states determined from X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy were consistent with bond valence sum estimates, that confirmed the presence of Ni$^{2+}$, Mg$^{2+}$, Ga$^{3+}$, Co$^{2+}$ in our samples. Irrespective of magnetic or non-magnetic doping, the magnetic phase transition temperature ($T_N$) of the doped compounds were reduced from that of Na$_2$ Ni$_2$ TeO$_6$ or Na$_2$ Co$_2$ TeO$_6$, and lay between 21.7 K and 26.8 K. The effective paramagnetic moments extracted from Curie–Weiss analysis were in the range 3.17 μ B to 3.84 μ B and the Weiss temperatures were between $-15$ K and $-25$ K, suggesting antiferromagnetism. Mg- and Ga-doped compounds showed free spin formation, indicated by Curie–Weiss tails in their magnetic susceptibility. Our results suggest emergence of short-range magnetic correlations in Na$_2$(Ni$_{2-x}$D$_x$)TeO$_6$, enhanced due to the depletion of the Ni honeycomb lattice.

75 - CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY A↗

DOE OSTI2021

Characterization of Offshore Storage Resource Potential in the Central Planning Area of the Gulf of Mexico

This report contains a brief overview of the several studies that provide the basis for this work and details the reservoir characterization efforts that have been completed to date. Briefly, geological characterization data suggests that the deep-water reservoirs are the result of the interplay between turbidite depositional systems and salt tectonics. Project Partners have estimated the CO 2 storage capacity associated with saline reservoirs and that associated with CO 2 -Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) in the state waters of Louisiana. In addition, Project Partners have conducted a detailed analysis of CO 2 storage potential associated with CO 2 -EOR in the central planning area of the GOM. This work estimates that 3,140 million metric tonnes of CO 2 can be stored in optimal reservoirs of the shallow- and deep-water central GOM. A reduced order modeling and machine learning approach is introduced that will be used to evaluate CO 2 storage capacity and plume dynamics for down-selected, reservoir-specific, saline characterization. Last, a brief discussion establishes how the data presented in this report will support future work.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2025

Increased Ly α Opacity in White Dwarf Photospheres from Transient H − Resonances

The structure and emergent flux of hydrogen atmosphere white dwarfs depend on the opacity of the Lyα and Lyβ spectral lines. The opacity here is set by the strength and broadening of these lines; the latter is dictated by the far line wing, which is in the “quasi-static” limit of electron broadening, placing it in the incomplete collision regime, and describes the transient parts of electron and ion collisions. These transient stages of the collision form resonances: In the case of ions, they manifest as molecular resonances, while for electrons they are H − resonances, both of which can only be captured quantum-mechanically. Quantum-mechanical calculations have historically preserved only a handful of broadening terms that are most important near the center of the line. However, in the wings of the line, the previously neglected terms that describe the transient stages of the collision need to be included. This requirement arises because, in the line wings, the broadening from the 1s ground state, which is generally assumed to be extremely small compared to the broadening of the upper state, is no longer negligible within a quantum-mechanical model that takes into account exchange interactions. The inclusion of all the transient terms results in asymmetries and extra broadening. The increased broadening of Lyα increases the opacity at the energy where most of the flux leaves the star. The broader Lyα lines also impact the visible flux, raising it by an amount that exceeds previously estimated errors.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

The effect of initial conditions on mixing transition of the Richtmyer–Meshkov instability

We investigate the late-time Richtmyer–Meshkov instability (RMI) growth of sinuous perturbations on an air/sulphur hexafluoride interface (Atwood number, A ~ 0.67 ) subjected to a Mach 1.2 planar shock wave at Los Alamos National Laboratory's vertical shock tube facility. Interface perturbations are established using a novel membraneless technique where cross-flowing air and SF 6 separated by an oscillating splitter plate create a perturbed density interface. The interface formed has multi-modal features and residual small perturbations, however, a dominant mode is still noticeable. The late-time perturbation growths scale with $ka_0$ initial conditions (where $k$ is the wavenumber and $a_0$ is the initial amplitude of the dominant mode) as measured at the pre-shock interface. Past nonlinear models based on potential-flow theory, heuristic/interpolation approaches, Padé approximants and numerical simulations are evaluated against present experimental results. Accounting for an explicit $ka_0$ dependence in Sadot et al.'s model, we propose an empirical rational function that captures the asymptotic behaviour of perturbation growth for a broad range of initial conditions ( 0.30 $≤ ka_0 ≤$ 0.86 ). The onset of mixing transition and its initial condition dependence are investigated with respect to the minimum state criterion ($Re =$ 1.6 $\times$ 10 5 ) for unsteady flows by Zhou. Earlier mixing transitions for higher ka0 initial conditions are noted from local and global Reynolds number estimates which are corroborated by the existence of an inertial sub-range and formation of mixing regions indicating the physical significance of the minimum state criterion in RMI flows. The transition is accompanied by the increasing teapot-like appearance of joint probability density functions of $p–q$ (invariants of the reduced velocity gradient tensor), establishing the technique as a useful tool for turbulence detection in two-dimensional diagnostics.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2025

Online energy consumption forecast for battery electric buses using a learning-free algebraic method

Accurately predicting the energy consumption plays a vital role in battery electric buses (BEBs) route planning and deployment. Based on the algebraic derivative estimation, we present a novel method to forecast the energy consumption in real time. In contrast to the mainstream machine-learning-based methods, the proposed method does not require access to the historical energy consumption data. It eliminates the time-consuming and computationally expensive offline training. Consequently, its prediction performance is not constrained by the quantity and quality of the training data. Moreover, the method can swiftly adapt to new situations not included in the previous driving cycles, which makes it especially suitable for emerging transport modes, e.g., on-demand transit services. In addition, its online execution only involves algebraic calculations, yielding superior calculation efficiency. Using real-world data, we comprehensively compare the performance of the proposed learning-free algebraic method with multiple representative machine-learning-based methods. Finally, the advantages and limitations of the proposed method are discussed in detail.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Performance Modeling of a Variable-Geometry Oscillating Surge Wave Energy Converter on a Raised Foundation: Preprint

This paper analyzes the power capture potential, structural loadings, and costs associated with an oscillating surge wave energy converter (OSWEC) operating on a raised foundation. The raised OSWEC offers opportunities for reduced installation costs, improved energy production, and greater flexibility of deployment when compared with bottom-fixed models. In this investigation, several different foundation geometries were simulated using WEC-Sim to estimate power capture and structural loads. In an effort to maximize power capture, several cases in which flat plates of varying size were attached to the top of the foundation, under and parallel with the OSWEC, were also simulated. These plates were found to enhance power capture by preventing the wave induced pressure from passing underneath the OSWEC, diverting this pressure towards the OSWEC instead. The OSWEC was simulated in the six Wave Energy Prize sea states, which were chosen as a representative sample of U.S. deployment sites. A first-order estimate of structural costs was calculated using the Wave Energy Prize ACE metric, with the foundation comprised predominantly of steel-reinforced concrete and the OSWEC comprised of A36 steel. Influence of foundation geometry on power capture, structural loadings, and ACE are topics of particular interest. This work has been inspired by advances in large scale additive manufacturing techniques that have the potential to dramatically reduce the cost of subsea foundations. These advancements may enable cost effective WEC systems to be deployed on raised foundations.

50 EE - Wind and Water Power Program - Water (EE-4↗

DOE OSTI2023

Cost Estimates of Roll-to-Roll Production of Organic Light Emitting Devices for Lighting

White organic light emitting devices (WOLEDs) offerdistinct advantages as solid state lighting sources, including high energy efficiency, superior color quality,and a flexible, thin profile that can accommodate a vast array of possible fixture designs. Recent advances in device lifetime and high speed deposition suggest that mass production of WOLED panels is approaching an inflection point. To understand the tradeoffs in the volume manufacturing of WOLED lighting panels, in this work, we estimate the cost of white WOLED panel production based on vacuum and vapor phase deposition in a roll-to-roll production line envisioned to yield an annual capacity of at least 6 × 10 6 m 2 . Assuming a WOLED operating luminance at 10 klm/m 2 , we anticipate a $\$12.5$ /klm cost of a WOLED light engine that includes the cost of the current driverand packaging. With incremental reduction in material and driver costs and improved luminance, the costof WOLED lighting can be reduced to $\$6.3$ /klm in thenear term, potentially positioning WOLEDs for use innumerous premium lighting applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Excited-state uncertainties in lattice-QCD calculations of hadron masses and scattering phase shifts

Lattice QCD has historically produced energy results interpretable as either estimates relying on implicit assumptions about asymptotic behavior or one-sided upper bounds. New Lanczos methods providing two-sided bounds with less-restrictive assumptions are introduced and quantified in a high-statistics calculation with unphysical quark masses. Two-sided bounds without spectral assumptions provide sub-percent constraints on the nucleon mass. Other bounds, which assume all states in a given energy window are resolved, provide meaningful two-sided constraints on nucleon-nucleon scattering phase shifts.

Detmold, William [MIT, Cambridge, CTP]↗

DOE OSTI2021

Performance Modeling of a Variable-Geometry Oscillating Surge Wave Energy Converter on a Raised Foundation

This paper analyzes the power capture potential, structural loadings, and costs associated with an oscillating surge wave energy converter (OSWEC) operating on a raised foundation. The raised OSWEC offers opportunities for reduced installation costs, improved energy production, and greater flexibility of deployment when compared with fixed-bottom models. In this investigation, we simulated several different foundation geometries using WEC-Sim to estimate power capture and structural loads. In an effort to maximize power capture, several cases in which flat plates of varying size were attached to the top of the foundation, under and parallel with the OSWEC, were also simulated. These plates were found to enhance power capture by preventing the wave-induced pressure from passing underneath the OSWEC, diverting this pressure toward the OSWEC instead. The OSWEC was simulated in the six Wave Energy Prize sea states, which were chosen as a representative sample of U.S. deployment sites. A first-order estimate of structural costs was calculated using the Wave Energy Prize ACE metric, with the foundation comprised predominantly of steel-reinforced concrete and the OSWEC comprised of A36 steel. Influence of foundation geometry on power capture, structural loadings, and ACE are topics of particular interest. This work has been inspired by advances in large-scale additive manufacturing techniques that have the potential to dramatically reduce the cost of subsea foundations. These advancements may enable cost-effective WEC systems to be deployed on raised foundations.

cost↗

DOE OSTI2020

Economic Valuation of Coccidioidomycosis (Valley Fever) Projections in the United States in Response to Climate Change

Coccidioidomycosis, or valley fever, is an infectious fungal disease currently endemic to the southwestern United States. Symptoms of valley fever range in severity from flu-like illness to severe morbidity and mortality. Warming temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns may cause the area of endemicity to expand northward throughout the western United States, putting more people at risk for contracting valley fever. This may increase the health and economic burdens from this disease. We developed an approach to describe the relationship between climate conditions and valley fever incidence using historical data and generated projections of future incidence in response to both climate change and population trends using the Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) framework developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. We also developed a method to estimate economic impacts of valley fever that is based on case counts. For our 2000–15 baseline time period, we estimated annual medical costs, lost income, and economic welfare losses for valley fever in the United States were 400,000 USD per case, and the annual average total cost was 3.9 billion USD per year. For a high greenhouse gas emission scenario and accounting for population growth, we found that total annual costs for valley fever may increase up to 164% by year 2050 and up to 380% by 2090. By the end of the twenty-first century, valley fever may cost 620,000 USD per case and the annual average total cost may reach $18.5 billion per year. This work contributes to the broader effort to monetize climate change–attributable damages in the United States.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Classical and quantum simulations of 1+1-dimensional ${\mathbb{Z}}_{2}$ gauge theory at finite temperature and density

Simulating strongly coupled gauge theories at finite temperature and density is a longstanding challenge in nuclear and high-energy physics with fundamental implications for condensed matter physics. Here, we simulate such systems using minimally entangled typical thermal state (METTS) approaches, which combine classical random sampling with imaginary-time evolution, implementable on either classical or quantum computers, to estimate thermal averages of observables. We study 1+1-dimensional ${\mathbb{Z}}_{2}$ gauge theory coupled to spinless fermionic matter, which maps onto a local quantum spin chain. We benchmark both a classical matrix-product-state implementation of METTS and a recently proposed adaptive variational approach for near-term quantum devices, focusing on the equation of state and measures of fermion confinement. Of particular importance is the choice of basis for METTS sampling, which impacts both the sampling overhead and quantum circuit complexity. Our work sets the stage for future studies of strongly coupled gauge theories using classical and quantum hardware.

Chen, I-Chi [Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United St↗

DOE OSTI2021

Scaling of Transition State Vibrational Frequencies and Application of d -Band Theory to the Brønsted–Evans–Polanyi Relationship on Surfaces

Semiempirical energy relations provide a means of estimating thermodynamic properties. Specifically, linear scaling relationships (LSRs) and Brønsted–Evans–Polanyi (BEP) relationships correlate adsorption energies between adsorbates across surfaces and reaction energies with activation barriers, respectively. Although vibrational scaling relations (VSRs) exist between adsorbates at identical sites, scaling between vibrational frequencies of adsorbed local minima and transition states is lacking. Here, we present density functional theory calculations for AH X (A = C, N, O) diffusions on transition metal surfaces and reveal linear scaling between frequencies of local minima and the transition state between those minima. Using d-band theory and linear muffin tin orbital theory (LMTO), we derive the slopes of these transition state vibrational scaling relations (TSVSRs) and, in so doing, provide a rigorous theory extending the original BEP relations developed for solution chemistry to surface chemistry. Furthermore, with a single reference DFT calculation, we predict the slopes and quantify uncertainty in the predictions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Ground vehicle lane-keeping assistance system via differential flatness output feedback control and algebraic derivative estimation

Vehicle run-off-road is one of the most frequent and fatal traffic accidents in the United States. Various lane-keeping assistance (LKA) systems have been developed in the last decade to help drivers stay on the road. Most of them are built upon linear driver–vehicle–road (DVR) models and treat road curvature as a disturbance. Albeit effective, their control performance would degrade if road curvature varies rapidly. Here, this paper proposes a novel nonlinear DVR model by integrating a driver steering model into vehicle–road kinematics, which explicitly considers road curvature. Particularly, this nonlinear DVR system has been proven to be differentially flat, and a flatness-based LKA system is designed. Additionally, Model-Free Control is introduced to compensate for system modeling errors. Hardware-in-the-loop simulations and diver-in-the-loop experiments validate the proposed control framework and demonstrate the performance enhancement with respect to a representative linear robust LKA system.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Microscopic characterization of the magnetic properties of the itinerant antiferromagnet La 2 Ni 7 by La 139 NMR/NQR measurements

In this study, 139 La nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) and nuclear quadrupole resonance (NQR) measurements have been performed to investigate the magnetic properties of the itinerant magnet La 2 Ni 7 , which shows a series of antiferromagnetic (AFM) phase transitions at T N1 = 61 K, T N2 = 56 K, and T N3 = 42 K under zero magnetic field. Two distinct La NMR signals were observed due to the two crystallographically inequivalent La sites in La 2 Ni 7 (La1 and La2 in the La 2 Ni 4 and the LaNi 5 subunits of the La 2 Ni 7 unit cell, respectively). From the 139 La NQR spectrum in the AFM state below T N3 , the AFM state was revealed to be a commensurate state where Ni-ordered moments align along the crystalline c axis. Owing to the two different La sites, we were able to estimate the average values of the Ni-ordered moments (0.09 – 0.10 μB / Ni and 0.17 μB / Ni around La1 and La2, respectively) from 139 La NMR spectrum measurements in the AFM state below T N3 , suggesting a nonuniform distribution of the Ni-ordered moments in the AFM state. In contrast, a more uniform distribution of the Ni-ordered moments in the saturated paramagnetic state induced by the application of high magnetic fields is observed. The temperature dependence of the sublattice magnetization measured by the internal magnetic induction at the La2 site in the AFM state was reproduced by a local-moment model better than the self-consistent renormalization (SCR) theory for weak itinerant antiferromagnets. Given the small Ni-ordered moments in the magnetically ordered state, our results suggest that La 2 Ni 7 has characteristics of both itinerant nature and localized nature in its magnetism. With this in mind, it is noteworthy that the temperature dependence of nuclear spin-relaxation rates (1/T 1 ) in the paramagnetic state above T N1 measured at zero magnetic field can be explained qualitatively by both the SCR theory and the local-moment model.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2025

Enhanced Boundary Layer Height Detection Using Ceilometer, Surface Meteorology, and Radiation Products With a Random Forest Ensemble Method

This study develops and evaluates a Random Forest (RF) model for estimating planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) using 9 years of data from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains (ARM SGP) user facility, with potential application in the NOAA Surface Radiation (SURFRAD) Network. The model integrates ceilometer, surface meteorology, and radiation measurements, and is trained using thermodynamic PBLH estimates derived from radiosondes. This approach aims to bridge gaps between aerosol-based and thermodynamic-based PBLH estimates. The RF model outperformed traditional methods during daytime and better captured transition periods, demonstrating improved accuracy and robustness. At ARM SGP, it showed a substantial reduction in both bias and RMSE, with a bias near zero (−4.9 m) compared with traditional Haar Wavelet (HW) (70.9 m) and Vaisala BL-View software (124.1 m), and an RMSE of 303.2 m, lower than both BL-View (566.9 m) and HW (404.6 m). During daytime hours, RF consistently outperformed both alternatives, maintaining lower bias and RMSE across all periods. At a second evaluation site, RF achieved the lowest overall RMSE (323.7 m), similar to HW (326.4 m) and significantly better than BL-View (738.3 m). However, all models showed reduced accuracy under stable nighttime conditions, limiting the reliability of PBLH estimates. Key predictors for the model included the lifting condensation level height (LCLH), aerosol gradients, and month for seasonal variability. The study underscores the potential of integrating machine learning with multiple data sets such as surface energy and thermodynamic data to advance PBLH estimation.

boundary layer height↗