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At least 1,297 records · Page 72

Summary of atmospheric characteristics of days with inland penetrating sea breezes from 2015 to 2021

Abstract Sea breezes penetrate inland more than 100 km. Using 7 years of meteorological observations, we have identified 470 cases of deep inland (>100 km) penetrating sea breezes at the Savannah River Site between March and October (27% of days) of 2015–2021. We compared measurements of temperature, dewpoint temperature, incoming solar radiation, cloud fraction, and lightning on days of sea breeze initiation, the day after the sea breeze passage, and all other nonsea breeze (NSB) days for these 8 months over the 7 years. Days of sea breeze initiation were found to have lower cloud fraction, higher temperature, and greater incoming solar radiation compared with NSB days. Variations occurred by time of year as days after the sea breeze passage were found to have higher dewpoint temperature than NSB days in the spring. Lightning density measurements indicated that residual sea breeze conditions could drive earlier initiation of deep convection on days following the sea breeze than normal non sea breeze days. This data set provides a 7‐year record of sea breezes which can be leveraged for future studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Comparative clumped isotope temperature relationships in freshwater carbonates

Lacustrine, riverine and spring carbonates represent archives of terrestrial climates and their geochemistry has been used to study palaeoenvironments. Clumped isotope thermometry is an emerging tool that has been applied to freshwater carbonates. Limited work has been done to evaluate comparative relationships between clumped isotopes and temperature in different types of modern freshwater carbonates. This study assembles an extensive calibration data set with 135 samples of modern freshwater carbonates from 96 sites and constrains the relationship between independent observations of water temperature and the clumped isotopic composition of carbonates (denoted by Δ 47 ), including new measurements, and recalculates published data in accordance with current community-defined standard values. For temperature reconstruction, the study reports a composite freshwater calibration and material-specific calibrations for biogenic carbonates (freshwater gastropods and bivalves), fine-grained carbonate (e.g. micrites), biologically mediated carbonates (microbialites and tufas) and travertines. Material-specific calibration trends show a convergence of slopes that are in agreement with recently published syntheses, but statistically significant differences in intercepts occur between some materials (e.g. some biogenics, fine-grained carbonates). These differences may arise due to unresolved seasonal biases, kinetic isotope effects and/or varying degrees of biological influence. The impact of different calibrations is shown through application to new data for glacial and deglacial age travertines from Austria and published data sets. While material-specific calibrations may yield more accurate results for biogenic and fine-grained carbonate samples, the use of material-specific and the composite freshwater calibrations generally produces values within 1.0–1.5°C of each other, and typically fall within calibration uncertainty given limitations of precision.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Historical and Projected Trends in Landscape Drivers Affecting Carbon Dynamics in Alaska

Modern climate change in Alaska has resulted in widespread thawing of permafrost, increased fire activity, and extensive changes in vegetation characteristics that have significant consequences for socio-ecological systems. Despite observations of the heightened sensitivity of these systems to change, there has not been a comprehensive assessment of factors that drive ecosystem changes throughout Alaska. In this paper, we present research that improves our understanding of the main drivers of the spatiotemporal patterns of carbon dynamics using in situ observations, remote sensing data, and an array of modeling techniques. In the last 60 years, Alaska has seen a large increase in mean annual air temperature (1.7 °C), with the greatest warming occurring over winter and spring. Warming trends are projected to continue throughout the 21st century and will likely result in landscape-level changes to ecosystem structure and function. Wetlands, mainly bogs and fens, which are currently estimated to cover 12.5% of the landscape, strongly influence exchange of methane between Alaska's ecosystems and the atmosphere and are expected to be affected by thawing permafrost and shifts in hydrology. Simulations suggest the current proportion of near-surface (within 1 m) and deep (within 5 m) permafrost extent will be reduced by 9–74% and 33–55% by the end of the 21st century, respectively. Since 2000, an average of 678,595 ha/yr was burned, more than twice the annual average during 1950–1999. The largest increase in fire activity is projected for the boreal forest, which could result in a reduction in late-successional spruce forest (8–44%) and an increase in early-succession deciduous forest (25–113%) that would mediate future fire activity and weaken permafrost stability in the region. Climate warming will also affect vegetation communities across arctic regions, where the coverage of deciduous forest could increase (223–620%), shrub tundra may increase (4–21%), and graminoid tundra might decrease (10–24%). Finally, this study sheds light on the sensitivity of Alaska's ecosystems to change that has the potential to significantly affect local and regional carbon balance, but more research is needed to improve estimates of land-surface and subsurface properties, and to better account for ecosystem dynamics affected by a myriad of biophysical factors and interactions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Ringed seal demography in a changing climate

Abstract Climate change is affecting species’ distributions and abundances worldwide. Baseline population estimates, against which future observations may be compared, are necessary if we are to detect ecological change. Arctic sea ice ecosystems are changing rapidly and we lack baseline population estimates for many ice‐associated species. Provided we can detect them, changes in Arctic marine ecosystems may be signaled by changes in indicator species such as ringed seals ( Pusa hispida ). Ringed seal monitoring has provided estimates of survival and fertility rates, but these have not been used for population‐level inference. Using matrix population models, we synthesized existing demographic parameters to obtain estimates of historical ringed seal population growth and structure in Amundsen Gulf and Prince Albert Sound, Canada. We then formalized existing hypotheses about the effects of emerging environmental stressors (i.e., earlier spring ice breakup and reduced snow depth) on ringed seal pup survival. Coupling the demographic model to ice and snow forecasts available from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project resulted in projections of ringed seal population size and structure up to the year 2100. These projections showed median declines in population size ranging from 50% to 99%. Corresponding to these projected declines were substantial changes in population structure, with increasing proportions of ringed seal pups and adults and declining proportions of juveniles. We explored if currently collected, harvest‐based data could be used to detect the projected changes in population stage structure. Our model suggests that at a present sample size of 100 seals per year, the projected changes in stage structure would only be reliably detected by mid‐century, even for the most extreme climate models. This modeling process revealed inconsistencies in existing estimates of ringed seal demographic rates. Mathematical population models such as these can contribute both to understanding past population trends as well as predicting future ones, both of which are necessary if we are to detect and interpret future observations.

Reimer, Jody R.↗

Integrating data types to estimate spatial patterns of avian migration across the Western Hemisphere

For many avian species, spatial migration patterns remain largely undescribed, especially across hemispheric extents. Recent advancements in tracking technologies and high-resolution species distribution models (i.e., eBird Status and Trends products) provide new insights into migratory bird movements and offer a promising opportunity for integrating independent data sources to describe avian migration. Here, we present a three-stage modeling framework for estimating spatial patterns of avian migration. First, we integrate tracking and band re-encounter data to quantify migratory connectivity, defined as the relative proportions of individuals migrating between breeding and nonbreeding regions. Next, we use estimated connectivity proportions along with eBird occurrence probabilities to produce probabilistic least-cost path (LCP) indices. In a final step, we use generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) both to evaluate the ability of LCP indices to accurately predict (i.e., as a covariate) observed locations derived from tracking and band re-encounter data sets versus pseudo-absence locations during migratory periods and to create a fully integrated (i.e., eBird occurrence, LCP, and tracking/band re-encounter data) spatial prediction index for mapping species-specific seasonal migrations. To illustrate this approach, we apply this framework to describe seasonal migrations of 12 bird species across the Western Hemisphere during pre- and postbreeding migratory periods (i.e., spring and fall, respectively). We found that including LCP indices with eBird occurrence in GAMMs generally improved the ability to accurately predict observed migratory locations compared to models with eBird occurrence alone. Using three performance metrics, the eBird + LCP model demonstrated equivalent or superior fit relative to the eBird-only model for 22 of 24 species–season GAMMs. In particular, the integrated index filled in spatial gaps for species with over-water movements and those that migrated over land where there were few eBird sightings and, thus, low predictive ability of eBird occurrence probabilities (e.g., Amazonian rainforest in South America). This methodology of combining individual-based seasonal movement data with temporally dynamic species distribution models provides a comprehensive approach to integrating multiple data types to describe broad-scale spatial patterns of animal movement. Further development and customization of this approach will continue to advance knowledge about the full annual cycle and conservation of migratory birds.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Diversifying and perennializing plants in agroecosystems alters retention of new C and N from crop residues

Abstract Managing soils to retain new plant inputs is key to moving toward a sustainable and regenerative agriculture. Management practices, like diversifying and perennializing agroecosystems, may affect the decomposer organisms that regulate how new residue is converted to persistent soil organic matter. Here we tested whether 12 years of diversifying/perennializing plants in agroecosystems through extended rotations or grassland restoration would decrease losses of new plant residue inputs and, thus, increase retention of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) in soil. We tracked dual‐labeled ( 13 C and 15 N), isotopically enriched wheat ( Triticum aestivum ) residue in situ for 2 years as it decomposed in three agroecosystems: maize–soybean (CS) rotation, maize–soybean–wheat plus red clover and cereal rye cover crops (CSW2), and spring fallow management with regeneration of natural grassland species (seven to 10 species; SF). We measured losses of wheat residue (C wheat and N wheat ) in leached soil solution and greenhouse gas fluxes, as well as how much was recovered in microbial biomass and bulk soil at 5‐cm increments down to 20 cm. CSW2 and SF both had unique, significant effects on residue decomposition and retention dynamics that were clear only when using nuanced metrics that able to tease apart subtle differences. For example, SF retained a greater portion of C wheat in 0–5 cm surface soils (155%, p = 0.035) and narrowed the C wheat to N wheat ratio ( p < 0.030) compared to CS. CSW2 increased an index of carbon‐retention efficiency, C wheat retained in the mesocosm divided by total measured, from 0.18 to 0.27 (49%, p = 0.001), compared to CS. Overall, we found that diversifying and extending the duration of living plants in agroecosystems can lead to greater retention of new residue inputs in subtle ways that require further investigation to fully understand.

McDaniel, Marshall D.↗

Contingency rules for pathogen competition and antagonism in a genetically based, plant defense hierarchy

Abstract Plant defense against pathogens includes a range of mechanisms, including, but not limited to, genetic resistance, pathogen‐antagonizing endophytes, and pathogen competitors. The relative importance of each mechanism can be expressed in a hierarchical view of defense. Several recent studies have shown that pathogen antagonism is inconsistently expressed within the plant defense hierarchy. Our hypothesis is that the hierarchy is governed by contingency rules that determine when and where antagonists reduce plant disease severity. Here, we investigated whether pathogen competition influences pathogen antagonism using Populus as a model system. In three independent field experiments, we asked whether competition for leaf mesophyll cells between a Melampsora rust pathogen and a microscopic, eriophyid mite affects rust pathogen antagonism by fungal leaf endophytes. The rust pathogen has an annual, phenological disadvantage in competition with the mite because the rust pathogen must infect its secondary host in spring before infecting Populus . We varied mite–rust competition by utilizing Populus genotypes characterized by differential genetic resistance to the two organisms. We inoculated plants with endophytes and allowed mites and rust to infect plants naturally. Two contingency rules emerged from the three field experiments: (a) Pathogen antagonism by endophytes can be preempted by host genes for resistance that suppress pathogen development, and (b) pathogen antagonism by endophytes can secondarily be preempted by competitive exclusion of the rust by the mite. Synthesis : Our results point to a Populus defense hierarchy with resistance genes on top, followed by pathogen competition, and finally pathogen antagonism by endophytes. We expect these rules will help to explain the variation in pathogen antagonism that is currently attributed to context dependency.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Resident and transient coyotes exhibit differential patterns of movement behavior across heterogeneous landscapes in the southeastern United States

Coyotes (Canis latrans) are a highly adaptable canid species whose behavioral plasticity has allowed them to persist in a wide array of habitats throughout North America. As generalists, coyotes can alter movement patterns and change territorial strategies between residency (high site fidelity) and transiency (low site fidelity) to maximize fitness. Uncertainty remains about resident and transient coyote movement patterns and habitat use because research has reached conflicting conclusions regarding patterns of habitat use by both groups. We quantified effects of habitat on resident and transient coyote movement behavior using first passage time (FPT) analysis, which assesses recursive movement along an individual's movement path to delineate where they exhibit area-restricted search (ARS) behaviors relative to habitat attributes. We quantified monthly movement rates for 171 coyotes (76 residents and 53 transients) and then used estimated FPT values in generalized linear mixed models to quantify monthly habitat use for resident and transient coyotes. Transients had greater movement rates than residents across all months except January. Resident FPT values were positively correlated with agricultural land cover during fall and winter, but negatively correlated with agriculture during spring. Resident FPT values were also negatively correlated with developed habitats during May–August, deciduous land cover during June–August, and wetlands during September–January except November. FPT values of transient coyotes were positively correlated with developed areas throughout much of the year and near wetlands during July–September. Transient FPT values were negatively correlated with agriculture during all months except June and July. High FPT values (ARS behavior) of residents and transients were generally correlated with greater densities of edge habitat. Although we observed high individual variation in space use, our study found substantive differences in habitat use between residents and transients, providing further evidence that complexity and plasticity of coyote habitat use is influenced by territorial strategy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Winter connectivity and leapfrog migration in a migratory passerine

Abstract Technological advances in migratory tracking tools have revealed a remarkable diversity in migratory patterns. One such pattern is leapfrog migration, where individuals that breed further north migrate to locations further south. Here, we analyzed migration patterns in the Painted Bunting ( Passerina ciris ) using a genetic‐based approach. We started by mapping patterns of genetic variation across geographic space (called a genoscape) using 386 individuals from 25 populations across the breeding range. We then genotyped an additional 230 samples from 31 migration stopover locations and 178 samples from 16 wintering locations to map patterns of migratory connectivity. Our analyses of genetic variation across the breeding range show the existence of four genetically distinct groups within the species: Eastern, Southwestern, Louisiana, and Central groups. Subsequent assignment of migrating and wintering birds to genetic groups illustrated that birds from the Central group migrated during the fall via western Mexico or southern Texas, spent the winter from northeastern Mexico to Panama, and migrated north via the Gulf Coast of Mexico. While Louisiana birds overlapped with Central birds on their spring migratory routes along the Gulf Coast, we found that Louisiana birds had a more restricted wintering distribution in the Yucatan Peninsula and Central America. Further estimation of the straight‐line distance from the predicted breeding location to the wintering location revealed that individuals sampled at lower winter latitudes traveled to greater distances (i.e., the predicted breeding area was further north; p > .001), confirming that these species exhibit a leapfrog migration pattern. Overall, these results demonstrate the utility of a genoscape‐based approach for identifying range‐wide patterns of migratory connectivity such as leapfrog migration with a high degree of clarity.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Weather, hydroregime, and breeding effort influence juvenile recruitment of anurans: implications for climate change

Amphibians that primarily breed in ephemeral wetlands are especially vulnerable to climate change because they rely on rainfall or temperature to initiate breeding and create suitable hydroregimes (water duration, timing, frequency, depth) for reproductive success. Hydroregime effects on reproductive success are likely to differ among species because of differences in reproductive strategies: the length and timing of breeding period, rate of larval development, and timing of metamorphosis. We applied an information-theoretic approach to 22 consecutive years of continuous amphibian trapping data at eight ephemeral wetlands to test hypotheses regarding environmental (hydroregime, weather) and biological (adult breeding effort) factors affecting juvenile recruitment (JR) by six focal species representing four reproductive strategies. We hypothesized that (1) JR by species with similar reproductive strategies would be influenced by similar variables; (2) JR would be higher for all species when models encompassed the maximum time span of potential tadpole occurrence and development; and (3) JR rates within individual wetlands and breeding cycles would correlate most closely between species with similar breeding strategies. The best model for all focal species (except Scaphiopus holbrookii) encompassed the maximum time span and indicated that ≥1 hydroregime variable, total precipitation, or both were important drivers of reproductive success; average air temperature was not. Continuous hydroperiod through peak juvenile emigration was an important predictor of JR for species with prolonged breeding periods, slow larval development, and a “fixed” late spring start date for juvenile emigration (regardless of when oviposition occurred, or cohort age; Lithobates capito , Lithobates sphenocephalus ), but not for species with rapid larval development and continual emigration as cohorts complete metamorphosis ( Anaxyrus terrestris, Anaxyrus quercicus, Gastrophryne carolinensis, S. holbrookii ). Total rainfall was positively associated with recruitment for most species; depth characteristics affected species differently. Annual JR was positively correlated among species with similar reproductive strategies. Our results indicate that weather and hydroregime characteristics interact with reproductive strategies that differ among amphibian species and influence reproductive plasticity, opportunity, and success. In conclusion, effects of altered weather patterns associated with climate change on amphibian reproductive success may correspond more closely among species having similar reproductive strategies, with critical implications for population trends and assemblages.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Seasonal grassland productivity forecast for the U.S. Great Plains using Grass–Cast

Every spring, ranchers in the drought-prone U.S. Great Plains face the same difficult challenge —trying to estimate how much forage will be available for livestock to graze during the upcoming summer grazing season. To reduce this uncertainty in predicting forage availability, we developed an innovative new grassland productivity forecast system, named Grass-Cast, to provide science-informed estimates of growing season above ground net primary production (ANPP). Grass-Cast uses over 30 yr of historical data including weather and the satellite-derived normalized vegetation difference index (NDVI)—combined with ecosystem modeling and seasonal precipitation forecasts—to predict if rangelands in individual counties are likely to produce below-normal, near-normal, or above-normal amounts of grass biomass (lbs/ac). Grass-Cast also provides a view of rangeland productivity in the broader region, to assist in larger scale decision-making—such as where forage resources for grazing might be more plentiful if a rancher’s own region is at risk of drought. Grass-Cast is updated approximately every two weeks from April through July. Each Grass-Cast forecast provides three scenarios of ANPP for the upcoming growing season based on different precipitation outlooks. Near real-time 8-d NDVI can be used to supplement Grass-Cast in predicting cumulative growing season NDVI and ANPP starting in mid-April for the Southern Great Plains and mid-May to early June for the Central and Northern Great Plains. Here, we present the scientific basis and methods for Grass-Cast along with the county-level production forecasts from 2017 and 2018 for ten states in the U.S. Great Plains. The correlation between early growing season forecasts and the end-of growing season ANPP estimate is >50% by late May or early June. In a retrospective evaluation, we compared Grass-Cast end-of-growing season ANPP results to an independent dataset and found that the two agreed 69% of the time over a 20-yr period. Although some predictive tools exist for forecasting upcoming growing season conditions, none predict actual productivity for the entire Great Plains. The Grass-Cast system could be adapted to predict grassland ANPP outside of the Great Plains or to predict perennial biofuel grass production.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Juvenile life history diversity is associated with lifetime individual heterogeneity in a migratory fish

Abstract Differences in the life history pathways (LHPs) of juvenile animals are often associated with differences in demographic rates in later life stages. For migratory animals, different LHPs often result in animals from the same population occupying distinct habitats subjected to different environmental drivers. Understanding how demographic rates differ among animals expressing different LHPs may reveal fitness trade‐offs that drive the expression of alternative LHPs and enable better prediction of population dynamics in a changing environment. To understand how demographic outcomes and their relationships with environmental variables differ among animals with different LHPs, we analyzed a long‐term (2006–2021) mark–recapture dataset for Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) from the Wenatchee River, Washington, USA. Distinct LHPs represented in this population include either remaining in the natal stream until emigrating to the ocean as a 1‐year‐old (natal‐reach rearing) or emigrating from the natal stream and rearing in downstream habitats for several months before completing the emigration to the ocean as a 1‐year‐old (downstream rearing). We found that downstream‐rearing fish emigrated to the ocean 19 days earlier on average and returned as adults from the ocean at higher rates. We detected a positive correlation between rate of return from the ocean by downstream‐rearing fish and coastal upwelling in their spring of outmigration, whereas for natal‐reach‐rearing fish we detected a positive correlation with sea surface temperature during their first marine summer. Different responses to environmental variability should lead to asynchrony in adult abundance among juvenile LHPs. A higher proportion of downstream‐rearing fish returned at younger ages compared with natal‐reach‐rearing fish, which contributed to variability in age at reproduction and greater mixing across generations. Our results demonstrate how diversity in juvenile LHPs is associated with heterogeneity in demographic rates during subsequent life stages, which can in turn affect variance in aggregate population abundance and response to environmental change. Our findings underscore the importance of considering life history diversity in demographic analyses and provide insights into the effects of life history diversity on population dynamics and trade‐offs that contribute to the maintenance of life history diversity.

Sorel, Mark H.↗

Metatranscriptomics reveals a shift in microbial community composition and function during summer months in a coastal marine environment

Abstract Temperate coastal marine waters are often thermally stratified from spring through fall but can be dynamic and disrupted by tidal currents and wind‐driven upwelling. These mixing events introduce deeper, cooler water with a higher partial pressure of CO 2 (pCO2) and its associated microbial communities to the surface. Anecdotally, these events impact shellfish hatcheries and farms, warranting improved understanding of changes in composition and activity of marine microbial communities in relation to environmental processes. To characterize both compositional and functional changes associated with abiotic factors, here, we generate a reference metatranscriptome from the Strait of Georgia over representative seasons and analyze metatranscriptomic profiles of the microorganisms present within intake water containing different pCO 2 levels at a shellfish hatchery in British Columbia from June through October. Abiotic factors studied include pH, temperature, alkalinity, aragonite, calcite, and pCO 2 . Community composition changes were observed to occur at broad taxonomic levels and most notably to vary with temperature and pCO 2 . Functional gene expression profiles indicated a strong difference between early (June–July) and late summer (August–October) associated with viral activity. The taxonomic data suggest this could be due to the termination of cyanobacteria and phytoplankton blooms by viral lysis in the late season. Functional analysis indicated fewer differentially expressed transcripts associated with abiotic variables (e.g., pCO 2 ) than with the temporal effect. Microbial composition and activity in these waters vary with both short‐term effects observed alongside abiotic variation and long‐term effects observed across seasons. The analysis of both taxonomy and functional gene expression simultaneously in the same samples by environmental RNA (eRNA metatranscriptomics) provided a more comprehensive view for monitoring water bodies than either would in isolation.

Sutherland, Ben J. G.↗

Spatial and temporal trends in contaminant concentrations in Hexagenia nymphs following a coal ash spill at the Tennessee Valley Authority's Kingston Fossil Plant

A dike failure at the Tennessee Valley Authority Kingston Fossil Plant in East Tennessee, United States, in December 2008, released approximately 4.1 million m(3) of coal ash into the Emory River. From 2009 through 2012, samples of mayfly nymphs (Hexagenia bilineata) were collected each spring from sites in the Emory, Clinch, and Tennessee Rivers upstream and downstream of the spill. Samples were analyzed for 17 metals. Concentrations of metals were generally highest the first 2 miles downstream of the spill, and then decreased with increasing distance from the spill. Arsenic, B, Ba, Be, Mo, Sb, Se, Sr, and V appeared to have strong ash signatures, whereas Co, Cr, Cu, Ni, and Pb appeared to be associated with ash and other sources. However, the concentrations for most of these contaminants were modest and are unlikely to cause widespread negative ecological effects. Trends in Hg, Cd, and Zn suggested little (Hg) or no (Cd, Zn) association with ash. Temporal trends suggested that concentrations of ash-related contaminants began to subside after 2010, but because of the limited time period of that analysis (4 yr), further monitoring is needed to verify this trend. The present study provides important information on the magnitude of contaminant exposure to aquatic receptors from a major coal ash spill, as well as spatial and temporal trends for transport of the associated contaminants in a large open watershed.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Improved ALE mesh velocities for complex flows

A key choice in the development of arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian solution algorithms is how to move the computational mesh. The most common approaches are smoothing and relaxation techniques, or to compute a mesh velocity field that produces smooth mesh displacements. We present a method in which the mesh velocity is specified by the irrotational component of the fluid velocity as computed from a Helmholtz decomposition, and excess compression of mesh cells is treated through a noniterative, local spring-force model. This approach allows distinct and separate control over rotational and translational modes. In conclusion, the utility of the new mesh motion algorithm is demonstrated on a number of 3D test problems, including problems that involve both shocks and significant amounts of vorticity.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Evaluating next-generation intensity–duration–frequency curves for design flood estimates in the snow-dominated western United States

Civil infrastructure such as culverts and bridges are commonly designed using precipitation-based intensity-duration-frequency (PREC-IDF) curves, which assume that the occurrence of precipitation is in the form of rainfall and immediately available for the rainfall-runoff process. In snow-dominated regions, where most winter precipitation occurs as snow that melts during spring to early summer, the use of standard PREC-IDF curves may lead to substantial underestimation of design floods and high failure risk of infrastructure. In this context, we developed next-generation IDF (NG-IDF) curves that characterize the actual water reaching the land surface (i.e., rainfall plus snowmelt) to enhance standard infrastructure design in snow-dominated regions. This study evaluates the performance of NG-IDF curves coupled with U.S. Department of Agriculture Technical Release 55 hydrologic model in estimating design floods for 246 snowy locations in different hydroclimate regimes of the western United States. Design flood estimates from a well-validated continuous simulation using a physics-based hydrologic model, the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM), were used as the performance benchmark. Compared with the benchmark estimates, the standard PREC-IDF curves led to substantial errors in design flood estimates while the NG-IDF curves significantly reduced these errors. For example, the averaged error in the 50-year design flood estimates over the 246 locations was reduced from 31% with the use of PREC-IDF curves to 12% with the use of NG-IDF curves. Despite the different model structures, the single-event NG-IDF approach versus the continuous simulation DHSVM did not exhibit statistically significant differences in 91% of the 246 locations for the 50-year design flood estimates. We find this indicates a satisfactory performance of NG-IDF curves to estimate design flow under the conditions tested in the snow-dominated western United States. This article also presents technical suggestions and the limitations of infrastructure design using NG-IDF curves for regulatory agencies and practicing engineers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Long-term hydrological, biogeochemical, and climatological data from Walker Branch Watershed, East Tennessee, USA

In 1967, the original Walker Branch Watershed (WBW) project was established to study elemental cycling and mass balances in a relatively unimpacted watershed. Over the next 50+ years, findings from additional experimental studies and long-term observations on WBW advanced understanding of catchment hydrology, biogeochemistry, and ecology and established WBW as a seminal site for catchment science. The 97.5-ha WBW is located in East Tennessee, USA, on the U.S. Department of Energy's Oak Ridge Reservation. Vegetation on the watershed is characteristic of an eastern deciduous, second-growth forest. The watershed is divided into two subcatchments: the West Fork (38.4 ha) and the East Fork (59.1 ha). Headwater streams draining these subcatchments are fed by multiple springs, and thus flow is perennial. Stream water is high in base cations due to weathering of dolomite bedrock and nutrient concentrations are low. Long-term observations of climate, hydrology, and biogeochemistry include daily (1969–2014) and 15-min (1994–2014) stream discharge and annual runoff (1969–2014); hourly, daily, and annual rainfall (1969–2012); daily climate and soil temperature (1993–2010); and weekly stream water chemistry (1989–2013). These long-term datasets are publicly available on the WBW website (https://walkerbranch.ornl.gov/long-term-data/). While collection of these data has ceased, related long-term measurements continue through the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON), where WBW is the core terrestrial and aquatic site in the Appalachian and Cumberland Plateau region (NEON's Domain 7) of the United States. These long-term datasets have been and will continue to be important in evaluating the influence of climatic and environmental drivers on catchment processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Increasing temperature and flow management alter mercury dynamics in East Fork Poplar Creek

East Fork Poplar Creek (EFPC) is a mercury (Hg) contaminated creek in east Tennessee, USA. Stream restoration activities included the initiation of a flow management programme in 1996 in which water from a nearby lake was pumped to the head of the creek. We conducted regular water sampling for 2 years along the length of EFPC during active flow management and for 5 years after flow management stopped. Total Hg and total monomethylmercury (MMHg) concentration and flux decreased in the uppermost reaches of EFPC that were closest to the point of water addition. Most water quality parameters, including DOC concentration, remained unchanged after flow management termination. Nevertheless, SUVA 254 , a measure of dissolved organic matter (DOM) composition, increased and coincided with increased dissolved Hg (Hg D ) concentration and flux and decreased Hg solid-water partitioning coefficients throughout EFPC. Higher SUVA 254 and Hg D concentration have potential implications for bioavailability and MMHg production. Total and dissolved MMHg concentrations increased in lower reaches of EFPC after the end of flow management and these increases were most pronounced during spring and early summer when biota are more susceptible to exposure and uptake. A general warming trend in the creek after active flow management ended likely acted in concert with higher Hg D concentration to promote higher MMHg concentration. Total and dissolved MMHg concentrations were positively correlated with water temperature above a threshold value of 10°C. Concentration changes for Hg and MMHg could not be accounted for by changes in creek discharge that accompanied the cessation of flow management. In addition to the changing DOM composition in-stream, other watershed-scale factors likely contributed to the observed patterns, as these changes occurred over months rather than instantaneously after flow management stopped. Nevertheless, similar changes in MMHg have not been observed in a tributary to EFPC.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗