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At least 1,297 records · Page 72

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DOE OSTI2021

Time-dependent heterogeneity leads to transient suppression of the COVID-19 epidemic, not herd immunity

Significance Epidemics generally spread through a succession of waves that reflect factors on multiple timescales. Here, we develop a general approach bridging across these timescales and demonstrate how to incorporate population heterogeneity into a wide class of epidemiological models. We demonstrate that a fragile state of transient collective immunity emerges during early, high-paced stages of the epidemic, leading to suppression of individual epidemic waves. However, this state is not an indication of lasting herd immunity: Subsequent waves may emerge due to stochastic changes in individual social activity. Parameters of transient collective immunity are estimated using empirical data from the COVID-19 epidemic in several US locations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Four-dimensional chromosome reconstruction elucidates the spatiotemporal reorganization of the mammalian X chromosome

Significance Breakthrough technological advances such as Hi-C have enabled large-scale sequencing of pairwise genomic contacts. However, translating the 2D contacts to 3D spatial models remains challenging. Here we develop the “4DHiC” modeling method to infer 3D information from 2D datasets across time and construct a 3D model of the inactive X-chromosome (Xi). Our model not only demonstrates a spatial phase-separation between A/B and S1/S2 compartments to form “hemispheres,” but also reveals persistent smaller-scale structures hidden under the Xi superstructure. We also simulate Xist RNA spreading dynamics and deduce that the RNA spreads between hemispheres via both surface and core to establish the Xi. Our 4DHiC will serve a growing demand for data-driven methodologies that extract spatial information from biochemical interaction data.

Lappala, Anna↗

DOE OSTI2025

Ponderosa pine hydraulic stress predicts more extreme wildfire behavior under future conditions in Bandelier National Monument, New Mexico

Background Live fuel moisture contributes to wildfire spread and reflects plant stress and physiological traits. The anticipated change in live fuel moisture under future conditions is likely non-linear, owing to physiological plant thresholds in water hydraulics. We constructed a mechanistic model of live fuel moisture’s response to water stress to understand the impact of future climate on live fuel moisture. We first gathered data on plant physiology and live fuel moisture for Pinus ponderosa at Bandelier National Monument, NM, USA, and modeled their relationship. We then parameterized a mechanistic plant hydrodynamics model (FATES-HYDRO) to simulate changes in plant stress and a statistical model to simulate the resulting impact on live fuel moisture. We then simulated FATES-HYDRO under future climate anomalies (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5: 2080–2100) to understand the change in plant stress and estimate its impact on live fuel moisture. Results We found that the number of days below crucial thresholds of live fuel moisture (100% and 79%) increased from contemporary levels (< 100%: 72 days, < 79%: 1.4 days) under SSP2-4.5 (< 100%: 185 days, < 79%: 10.2 day) and increased exponentially under SSP5-8.5 (< 100%: 215 days, < 79%: 65 days). We found that gross primary productivity decreased under both future climate scenarios (contemporary: 336 g C m −2 , SSP2-4.5: 203 g C m −2 , SSP5-8.5: 243 g C m −2 ); however, spring productivity increased under SSP5-8.5, potentially altering fuel loading. We additionally see a potentially lethal loss of conductivity in hydraulic P. ponderosa under SSP5-8.5. Conclusions The overall increase in plant water stress (as represented by loss of hydraulic conductivity and leaf water potential) and lower live fuel moisture appear to be driven by reduced precipitation during late summer monsoons typical of the region, extending the fire season later in the year. We predict increasing variability in the P. ponderosa wildfire regime under both climate projections driven by changing productivity, rising mortality, and an overall decrease in live fuel moisture.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1988

Scientific support for an orbiter middeck experiment on solid surface combustion

The objective is to determine the mechanism of gas-phase flame spread over solid fuel surfaces in the absence of any buoyancy or externally imposed gas-phase flow. Such understanding can be used to improve the fire safety aspects of space travel by providing information that will allow judicious selections of spacecraft materials and environments to be made. The planned experiment consists of measuring the flame spread rate over thermally thin and thermally thick fuels in a closed container in the low-gravity environment of the Space Shuttle. Measurements consist of flame spread rate and shape obtained from two views of the process as recorded on movie film and surface and gas-phase temperatures obtained from fine-wire thermocouples. The temperature measurements along with appropriate modeling provide information about the gas-to-solid heat flux. Environmental parameters to be varied are the oxygen concentration and pressure.

Altenkirch, Robert A.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Refraction and Shielding of Noise in Non-Axisymmetric Jets

This paper examines the shielding effect of the mean flow and refraction of sound in non-axisymmetric jets. A general three-dimensional ray-acoustic approach is applied. The methodology is independent of the exit geometry and may account for jet spreading and transverse as well as streamwise flow gradients. We assume that noise is dominated by small-scale turbulence. The source correlation terms, as described by the acoustic analogy approach, are simplified and a model is proposed that relates the source strength to 7/2 power of turbulence kinetic energy. Local characteristics of the source such as its strength, time- or length-scale, convection velocity and characteristic frequency are inferred from the mean flow considerations. Compressible Navier Stokes equations are solved with a k-e turbulence model. Numerical predictions are presented for a Mach 1.5, aspect ratio 2:1 elliptic jet. The predicted sound pressure level directivity demonstrates favorable agreement with reported data, indicating a relative quiet zone on the side of the major axis of the elliptic jet.

Khavaran, Abbas↗

NASA NTRS2009

The Updated Solar Activity Prediction during the MAVEN Mission, but Should We Believe It?

Mars atmospheric processes are very dependent not only on the absolute level of the solar irradiance but also the changes in solar irradiance. Correlated with many of these irradiance changes, especially during solar flares, are large particle events called coronal mass ejections that themselves significantly drive processes in the Martian atmosphere. The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center has issued a consensus solar cycle activity prediction for the upcoming solar cycle 24 maximum, and this maximum period of solar activity will be during the prime MAVEN science mission. This 'consensus' prediction calls for lower activity than the previous solar cycle maximum that occurred during the years 2001-2002, but looking at the wide spread of peer-reviewed predictions there is little faith that can be taken in any one prediction. This drives the importance of real-time measurements from the LPW/EUV diodes and the measurement and modeling results that will be improved upon using results from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO).

Chamberlin, Philip↗

NASA NTRS2013

Determination of Realistic Fire Scenarios in Spacecraft

This paper expands on previous work that examined how large a fire a crew member could successfully survive and extinguish in the confines of a spacecraft. The hazards to the crew and equipment during an accidental fire include excessive pressure rise resulting in a catastrophic rupture of the vehicle skin, excessive temperatures that burn or incapacitate the crew (due to hyperthermia), carbon dioxide build-up or accumulation of other combustion products (e.g. carbon monoxide). The previous work introduced a simplified model that treated the fire primarily as a source of heat and combustion products and sink for oxygen prescribed (input to the model) based on terrestrial standards. The model further treated the spacecraft as a closed system with no capability to vent to the vacuum of space. The model in the present work extends this analysis to more realistically treat the pressure relief system(s) of the spacecraft, include more combustion products (e.g. HF) in the analysis and attempt to predict the fire spread and limiting fire size (based on knowledge of terrestrial fires and the known characteristics of microgravity fires) rather than prescribe them in the analysis. Including the characteristics of vehicle pressure relief systems has a dramatic mitigating effect by eliminating vehicle overpressure for all but very large fires and reducing average gas-phase temperatures.

combustion↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Seven Years of Bright Meteor Data from the NASA All Sky Fireball Network

The NASA All Sky Fireball Network is a network consisting of 18 all-sky meteor cameras across the continental US. We present a data release of 33,660 bright meteors collected between 2013 and 2019. The released data consists of trajectory, orbit, radiant, shower association, and brightness. We discuss the camera hardware and software used to make the observations, the characteristics of the data, and known error sources. The camera hardware consists of Watec 902H2 Ultimate CCD cameras with a fish-eye lens giving an all-sky field of view. The data is complete until an absolute meteor magnitude of approximately -4, but meteors down to a magnitude of -1 are routinely observed. The cameras are spread across the continental United States in five subnetworks, with each network consisting of two to five cameras. The cameras report to a central server where the data is processed each morning. The network is modeled after the University of Western Ontario’s Southern Ontario Meteor Network. The cameras are running All-sky and Guided Real-time Detection (ASGARD) meteor detection software and analysis pipeline.

Aaron Kingery↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Multiyear Gridded Data Ensemble of Surface Biogenic Carbon Fluxes for North America: Evaluation and Analysis of Results

Accurate and fine-scale estimates of biogenic carbon fluxes are critical for measuring and monitoring the biosphere's responses and feedback to the climate system. Currently available data products from flux towers and model-intercomparison projects struggle to adequately represent spatiotemporal dynamics of surface biogenic carbon fluxes, and to quantify their uncertainties, which also are crucial to atmospheric inversion systems. To address these gaps, we introduce a new perturbed-parameter model ensemble with the CASA model to estimate surface biogenic carbon fluxes at monthly and 3-hourly scales for North America at ~500-m and 5-km resolutions. We first use the Extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Testing to choose the three most sensitive parameters to be perturbed, maximum light use efficiency (E max ), optimal temperature of photosynthesis (T opt ), and temperature response of respiration (Q 10 ). The initial range for each parameter is broadly sampled for the L1 ensemble, but then we pruned E max with site-level primary productivity to derive an L2 ensemble with narrower uncertainty ranges. Ensembles are strongly correlated with site-level results at both monthly and 3-hourly scales, and the spread across L1/L2 ensemble members encompasses the range of AmeriFlux observations. Monthly variability in the L2 ensemble mean is 85% of the observed variability. The L2 ensemble outperforms diverse data products with the highest Taylor skill scores at diurnal to annual scales. Finally, the ensemble's seasonality agrees well with other models for most biome types and in high and middle latitudes, but inconsistencies are found in subtropical and tropical ecoregions and for annual totals over North America.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1993

The use of transition region characteristics to improve the numerical simulation of heat transfer in bypass transitional flows

A method is presented for improving the numerical prediction of bypass transition heat transfer on a flat plate in a high-disturbance environment with zero or favorable pressure gradient. The method utilizes low Reynolds number k-epsilon turbulence models in combination with the characteristic parameters of the transition region. The parameters representing the characteristics of the transition region used are the intermittency, transition length and turbulent spot properties. An analysis is made of the transition length in terms of turbulent spot variables. The nondimensional spot formation rate, required for the prediction of the transition length, is shown by the analysis to be a function of the spot spreading angle, the dimensionless spot velocity ratio and the dimensionless spot area ratio. The intermittency form of the k-epsilon equations were derived from conditionally averaged equations which have been shown to be an improvement over global-time-averaged equations for the numerical calculation of the transition region. The numerical predictions are in general good agreement with the experimental data and indicate the potential use of the method in accelerating flows. Turbulence models of the k-epsilon type are known to underpredict the transition length. The present work demonstrates how incorporating transition region characteristics improves the ability of two-equation turbulence models to simulate bypass transition for flat plates with potential application to turbine vanes and blades.

Simon, Frederick F.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Mobile Lid Convection Beneath Enceladus' South Polar Terrain

Enceladus' south polar region has a large heat flux, 55-110 milliwatts per square meter (or higher), that is spatially associated with cryovolcanic and tectonic activity. Tidal dissipation and vigorous convection in the underlying ice shell are possible sources of heat; however, prior predictions of the heat flux carried by stagnant lid convection range from F(sub conv) ~15 to 30 milliwatts per square meter, too low to explain the observed heat flux. The high heat flux and increased cryovolcanic and tectonic activity suggest that near-surface ice in the region has become rheologically and mechanically weakened enough to permit convective plumes to reach close to the surface. If the yield strength of Enceladus' lithosphere is less than ~1-10 kPa, convection may instead occur in the mobile lid" regime, which is characterized by large heat fluxes and large horizontal velocities in the near-surface ice. I show that model ice shells with effective surface viscosities between 10(exp 16) and 10(exp 17) Pa s and basal viscosities between 10(exp 13) and 10(exp 15) Pa s have convective heat fluxes comparable to that observed by the Cassini Composite Infrared Spectrometer. If this style of convection is occurring, the south polar terrain should be spreading horizontally with v~1-10 millimeter per year and should be resurfaced in ~0.1-10 Ma. On the basis of Cassini imaging data, the south polar terrain is ~0.5 Ma old, consistent with the mobile lid hypothesis. Maxwell viscoelastic tidal dissipation in such ice shells is not capable of generating enough heat to balance convective heat transport. However, tidal heat may also be generated in the near-surface along faults as suggested by Nimmo et al. and/or viscous dissipation within the ice shell may occur by other processes not accounted for by the canonical Maxwell dissipation model.

Barr, Amy C.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Advancing coupled fire-atmosphere research with HIGRAD/FIRETEC (w20_firetec) (CY 2021 Institutional Computing Annual Progress Report) [Slides]

LANL’s HIGRAD and FIRETEC models were used in a multi-scale simulation framework to investigate impacts of small-scale fuel heterogeneities on large-scale Pyro-Cb formation. Forest structural diversity is found to increase canopy fire spread, and thus risk of tree mortality in FIRETEC simulations. Structural diversity is associated with an increase in ladder fuels, which facilitate fire spread into the canopy. Low-intensity fire burning in marginal conditions is highly sensitive to small perturbation in atmospheric turbulence. These results highlight predictive limitations of individual fire simulations, and emphasize the need for ensemble simulations, especially for low-intensity, prescribed fire.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS1978

Enclosure fire hazard analysis using relative energy release criteria

A method for predicting the probable course of fire development in an enclosure is presented. This fire modeling approach uses a graphic plot of five fire development constraints, the relative energy release criteria (RERC), to bound the heat release rates in an enclosure as a function of time. The five RERC are flame spread rate, fuel surface area, ventilation, enclosure volume, and total fuel load. They may be calculated versus time based on the specified or empirical conditions describing the specific enclosure, the fuel type and load, and the ventilation. The calculation of these five criteria, using the common basis of energy release rates versus time, provides a unifying framework for the utilization of available experimental data from all phases of fire development. The plot of these criteria reveals the probable fire development envelope and indicates which fire constraint will be controlling during a criteria time period. Examples of RERC application to fire characterization and control and to hazard analysis are presented along with recommendations for the further development of the concept.

Coulbert, C. D.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Turbulent jet patterns in accelerating flows

Results of flow visualization experiments, and a semi-empirical model of a single turbulent jet injected perpendicularly to a different density cross flow are presented. The model is based on integral conservation equations, including the pressure terms appropriate to accelerating flow. It uses an entrainment correlation obtained from previous experiments of a jet in a cross stream. The results show trajectories and spreading rates, and are typified by a set of three parameters: momentum ratio, Froude number and density ratio. Agreement between test and calculated results is encouraging, but tend to be poorer with increasing momentum ratio.

Lipshitz, A.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Regoliths on small bodies in the solar system

A regolith is defined as a layer or mantle of loose, incoherent, rocky material of whatever origin, that nearly everywhere forms the surface of the land and rests on coherent bedrock. The regoliths on many planetary bodies are the result of continual impacts, which transform coherent surfaces into fragmental debris. The present investigation is concerned with the special case of regolith formation and evolution on small objects, such as asteroids and meteorite parent bodies. First order models of regolith evolution on asteroidal surfaces are constructed on the basis of data provided by studies of lunar samples and meteorites. It appears that regolith formation proceeds by deposition of discrete layers of the widely spread ejecta primarily from the larger impacts. Moderate-size (100-300 km diameter) asteroids are covered by modest regoliths of the order of one km in depth. Small rocky asteroids develop negligible regoliths.

Housen, K. R.↗

NASA NTRS1986

A theory for turbulent curved wall jets

A simple theoretical model is proposed to describe the flow of a turbulent wall jet along a curved surface into a quiescent atmosphere. An integral method is used to solve the momentum equation and identifies three contributions to the spreading rate of the wall jet: (1) turbulent diffusion in the wall jet; (2) wall curvature; and (3) rate of change of wall curvature. Closed from approximate solutions are found for the case of a plane wall, a circular cylinder, and a logarithmic spiral surface. Comparison with experimental data for these three cases is made showing good agreement.

Roberts, Leonard↗

NASA NTRS1988

Laboratory studies of sticking coefficients and heterogeneous reactions important in the stratosphere

The discovery of ozone depletion during spring in the Antarctic stratosphere has received wide spread attention. Both meteorological and chemical mechanisms have been used in attempts to explain this observation. The chemical theory focused on the chlorofluoromethanes released into the atmosphere. However, gas-phase, homogeneous reactions alone in the model can not adequately explain such a depletion. Heterogeneous reactions on ice surfaces could be important in the Antarctic stratosphere. These reactions are thought to convert ClONO2 and N2O5 into HNO3 in the solid phase while Cl2, HOCl, and ClNO2 are released into the stratosphere as gas-phase products. The photolysis of Cl2, HOCl, and ClNO2, then produces active chlorine which subsequently removes ozone through several catalytic cycles, including the Cl2O2 mechanism. The polar stratospheric clouds are thought to consist of mixtures of water ice, nitric acid, and sulfuric acid. Condensation of HCl onto the PSC's could provide active surfaces for heterogeneous reactions.

Leu, Ming-Taun↗

NASA NTRS1994

International Space Station Alpha (ISSA) Integrated Traffic Model

The paper discusses the development process of the International Space Station Alpha (ISSA) Integrated Traffic Model which is a subsystem analyses tool utilized in the ISSA design analysis cycles. Fast-track prototyping of the detailed relationships between daily crew and station consumables, propellant needs, maintenance requirements, and crew rotation via spread sheets provides adequate bench marks to assess cargo vehicle design and performance characteristics.

Gates, Robert E.↗