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At least 1,297 records · Page 72

Earth System Dynamics: The Determination and Interpretation of the Global Angular Momentum Budget using the Earth Observing System

The objective of this investigation has been to examine the mass and momentum exchange between the atmosphere, oceans, solid Earth, hydrosphere, and cryosphere. The investigation has focused on changes in the Earth's gravity field, its rotation rate, atmospheric and oceanic circulation, global sea level change, ice sheet change, and global ground water circulation observed by contemporary sensors and models. The primary component of the mass exchange is water. The geodetic observables provided by these satellite sensors are used to study the transport of water mass in the hydrological cycle from one component of the Earth to another, and they are also used to evaluate the accuracy of models. As such, the investigation is concerned with the overall global water cycle. This report provides a description of scientific, educational and programmatic activities conducted during the period July 1, 1999 through June 30,2000. Research has continued into measurements of time-varying gravity and its relationship to Earth rotation. Variability of angular momentum and the related excitation of polar motion and Earth rotation have been examined for the atmosphere and oceans at time-scales of weeks to several years. To assess the performance of hydrologic models, we have compared geodetic signals derived from them with those observed by satellites. One key component is the interannual mass variability of the oceans obtained by direct observations from altimetry after removing steric signals. Further studies have been conducted on the steric model to quantify its accuracy at global and basin-scales. The results suggest a significant loss of water mass from the Oceans to the land on time-scales longer than 1-year. These signals are not reproduced in any of the models, which have poorly determined interannual fresh water fluxes. Output from a coupled atmosphere-ocean model testing long-term climate change hypotheses has been compared to simulated errors from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission. Results indicate that GRACE will be able to observe seasonal signals at half-wavelengths ranging from 1000 to 10000 km, and may be able to observe secular trends at half- wavelengths of greater than 2000-3000 km for soil moisture and snow depth if they are as large as some of the climate experiments predict.

Source record↗

Building Climate Resilience at NASA Ames

NASA Ames Research Center, located at the southern end of the San Francisco Bay (SFB) estuary has identified three primary vulnerabilities to changes in climate. The Ames Climate Adaptation Science Investigator (CASI) workgroup has studied each of these challenges to operations and the potential exposure of infrastructure and employees to an increased frequency of hazards. Sea level rise inundation scenarios for the SFB Area generally refer to projected scenarios in mean sea level rather than changes in extreme tides that could occur during future storm conditions. In the Summer of 2014, high resolution 3-D mapping of the low lying portion of Ames was performed. Those data are integrated with improved sea level inundation scenarios to identify the buildings, basements and drainage systems potentially affected. We will also identify the impacts of sea level and storm surge effects on transportation to and from the Center. This information will help Center Management develop future Master Plans. Climate change will also lead to changes in temperature, storm frequency and intensity. These changes have potential impacts on localized floods and ecosystems, as well as on electricity and water availability. Over the coming decades, these changes are going to be imposed on top of ongoing land use and land cover changes, especially those deriving from continued urbanization and increase in impervious surface areas. These coupled changes have the potential to create a series of cascading impacts on ecosystems, including changes in primary productivity and disturbance of hydrological properties and increased flood risk.The majority of the electricity used at Ames is supplied by hydroelectric dams, which will be influenced by reductions in precipitation or changes in the timing or phase of precipitation which reduces snow pack. Coupled with increased demand for summertime air conditioning and other cooling needs, NASA Ames is at risk for electricity shortfalls. To assess the anticipated energy usage as climate changes, the Ames CASI team is collecting historical energy usage data from Ames facilities, historical weather data, and projected future weather parameters from the CASI Climate subgroup. This data will be incorporated into the RETScreen model to predict how energy usage at Ames will change over the coming century.

climate↗

Water Storage Trends in High Mountain Asia

Changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) in High Mountain Asia (HMA) could have major societal impacts, as the region’s large reservoirs of glaciers, snow, and groundwater provide a freshwater source to more than one billion people. We seek to quantify and close the budget of secular changes in TWS over the span of the GRACE satellite mission (2003–2016). To assess the TWS trend budget we consider a new high-resolution mass trend product determined directly from GRACE L1B data, glacier mass balance derived from Digital Elevation Models (DEMs), groundwater variability determined from confined and unconfined well observations, and terrestrial water budget estimates from a suite of land surface model simulations with the NASA Land Information System (LIS). This effort is successful at closing the aggregated TWS trend budget over the entire HMA region, the glaciated portion of HMA, and the Indus and Ganges basins, where the full-region trends are primarily due to the glacier mass balance and groundwater signals. Additionally, we investigate the closure of TWS trends at individual 1-arc-degree mascons (area ≈12,000 km2); a significant improvement in spatial resolution over previous analyses of GRACE-derived trends. This mascon-level analysis reveals locations where the TWS trends are well-explained by the independent datasets, as well as regions where they are not; identifying specific geographic areas where additional data and model improvements are needed. The accurate characterization of total TWS trends and its components presented here is critical to understanding the complex dynamics of the region, and is a necessary step toward projecting future water mass changes in HMA.

Bryant D Loomis↗

Selection of a Representative Subset of Global Climate Models that Captures the Profile of Regional Changes for Integrated Climate Impacts Assessment

We present the Representative Temperature and Precipitation (T&P) GCM Subsetting Approach developed within the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to select a practical subset of global climate models (GCMs) for regional integrated assessment of climate impacts when resource limitations do not permit the full ensemble of GCMs to be evaluated given the need to also focus on impacts sector and economics models. Subsetting inherently leads to a loss of information but can free up resources to explore important uncertainties in the integrated assessment that would otherwise be prohibitive. The Representative T&P GCM Subsetting Approach identifies five individual GCMs that capture a profile of the full ensemble of temperature and precipitation change within the growing season while maintaining information about the probability that basic classes of climate changes (relatively cool/wet, cool/dry, middle, hot/wet, and hot/dry) are projected in the full GCM ensemble. We demonstrate the selection methodology for maize impacts in Ames, Iowa, and discuss limitations and situations when additional information may be required to select representative GCMs. We then classify 29 GCMs over all land areas to identify regions and seasons with characteristic diagonal skewness related to surface moisture as well as extreme skewness connected to snow-albedo feedbacks and GCM uncertainty. Finally, we employ this basic approach to recognize that GCM projections demonstrate coherence across space, time, and greenhouse gas concentration pathway. The Representative T&P GCM Subsetting Approach provides a quantitative basis for the determination of useful GCM subsets, provides a practical and coherent approach where previous assessments selected solely on availability of scenarios, and may be extended for application to a range of scales and sectoral impacts.

Climate Change; GCMs; Climate Model Subset; Repres↗

Automated Cloud Based Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network Based SWE Prediction

Snow derived water is a critical component of the US water supply. Measurements of the Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) and associated predictions of peak SWE and snowmelt onset are essential inputs for water management efforts. This paper aims to develop an integrated framework for real-time data ingestion, estimation, prediction and visualization of SWE based on daily snow datasets. In particular, we develop a data-driven approach for estimating and predicting SWE dynamics using the Long Short-Term Memory neural network (LSTM) method. Our approach uses historical datasets (precipitation, air temperature, SWE, and snow thickness) collected at NRCS Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) stations to train the LSTM network and current year data to predict SWE behavior. The performance of our prediction was compared for different prediction dates and prediction training datasets. Our results suggest that the proposed LSTM network can be an efficient tool for forecasting the SWE timeseries, as well as Peak SWE and snowmelt timing. Results showed that the window size impacts the model performance (where the Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) ranged from 0.96 to 0.85 and the Rooted Mean Square Error (RMSE) ranged from 0.038 to 0.07) with an optimum number that should be calibrated for different stations and climate conditions. In addition, by implementing the LSTM prediction capability in a cloud based site-monitoring platform, we automate model-data integration. By making the data accessible through a graphical web interface and an underlying API which exposes both training and prediction capabilities. The associated results can be made easily accessible to a broad range of stakeholders.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A search for interstellar scandium

The resonance line of Sc II at 3642.785 A has been sought in the interstellar spectrum of Zeta Oph, resulting in an upper limit N(Sc II) not greater than 8.6 billion/sq cm and a depletion of this element at least by a factor of 200, if Sc III contributes a negligible column density. The present upper limit may be somewhat below the level expected under the grain-formation model for interstellar depletions, and is consistent with the abundance expected if the depletions are due to gas-grain collisions. The new limit on this element helps to support the hypothesis that species within a specific range of ionization potential are preferentially depleted.

Snow, T. P., Jr.↗

A feasibility study of using remotely sensed data for water resource models

Remotely sensed data were collected to demonstrate the feasibility of applying the results to water resource problems. Photographs of the Wolf Creek watershed in southwestern Colorado were collected over a one year period. Cloud top temperatures were measured using a radiometer. Thermal imagery of the Wolf Creek Pass area was obtained during one pre-dawn flight. Remote sensing studies of water resource problems for user agencies were also conducted. The results indicated that: (1) remote sensing techniques could be used to assist in the solution of water resource problems; (2) photogrammetric determination of snow depths is feasible; (3) changes in turbidity or suspended material concentration can be observed; and (4) surface turbulence can be related to bed scour; and (5) thermal effluents into rivers can be monitored.

Ruff, J. F.↗

Springtime microwave emissivity changes in the southern Kara Sea

Springtime microwave brightness temperatures over first-year ice are examined for the southern Kara Sea. Snow emissivity changes are revealed by episodic drops in the 37- to 18-GHz brightness temperature gradient ratio measured by the Nimbus 7 scanning multichannel microwave radiometer. We suggest that the negative gradient ratios in spring 1982 result from increased scatter at 37 GHz due to the formation of a near-surface hoar layer. This interpretation is supported by the results of a surface radiation balance model that shows the melt signature occurring at below freezing temperatures but under clear-sky conditions with increased solar input to the surface. Published observations from the Greenland ice cap show a surface hoar layer forming under similar atmospheric conditions owing to the increased penetration and absorption of solar radiation just below the surface layer. In spring/early summer 1984 similar gradient ratio signatures occur. They appear to be due to several days of freeze-thaw cycling following the movement of a low-pressure system through the region. These changes in surface emissivity represent the transition from winter to summer conditions (as defined by the microwave response) and are shown to be regional in extent and to vary with the synoptic circulations.

Crane, Robert G.↗

Polarimetric Signatures in Landfalling Tropical Cyclones

Polarimetric radar observations from the NEXRAD WSR-88D operational radar network in the contiguous United States, routinely available since 2013, are used to reveal three prominent microphysical signatures in landfalling tropical cyclones: 1) hydrometeor size sorting within the eyewall convection, 2) vertical displacement of the melting layer within the inner core, and 3) dendritic growth layers within stratiform regions of the inner core. Size sorting signatures within eyewall convection are observed with greater frequency and prominence in more intense hurricanes, and are observed predominantly within the deep-layer environmental wind shear vector-relative quadrants that harbor the greatest frequency of deep convection (i.e., downshear and left-of-shear). Melting-layer displacements are shown that exceed 1 km in altitude compared to melting-layer altitudes in outer rainbands and are complemented by analyses of archived dropsonde data. Dendritic growth and attendant snow aggregation signatures in the inner core are found to occur more often when echo-top altitudes are low (≤10 km MSL), nearer the -15°C isotherm commonly associated with dendritic growth. These signatures, uniquely observed by polarimetric radar, provide greater insight into the physical structure and thermodynamic characteristics of tropical cyclones, which are important for improving rainfall estimation and the representation of tropical cyclones in numerical models.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Western Rainier Seismic Zone Airborne Laser Swath Mapping

Airborne laser swath mapping (ALSM) of the Puget Lowland conducted by TerraPoint LLC for the Purget Sound Lidar Concortium (PSLC), has been successful in revealing Holocene fault scarps and lendsliders hidden beneath the dense, temperate rain forest cover and in quantifying shoreline terrace uplift. Expanding the PSLC efforts, NASA-USGS collaboration is now focusing on topographic mapping of seismogenic zones adjacent to volcanois in the western Cascades range in order to assess the presence of active faulting and tectonic deformation, better define the extend of lahars and understand their flow processes, and characterize landslide occurrence. Mapping of the western Rainier zone (WRZ) was conducted by TerraPoint in late 2002, after leaf fall and before snow accumulation. The WRZ is a NNW-trending, approx. 30 km-long zone of seismicity west of Mount Rainier National Park. The Puget Lowland ALSM methods were modified to accommodate challenges posed by the steep, high relief terrian. The laser data, acquired with a density of approx. 2 pulses /sq m, was filtered to identify returns from the ground from which a bare Earth digital elevation model (DEM) was produced with a grid size of 1.8 m. The RMS elevation accuracy of the DEM in flat, unvegetated areas is approx. 10cm based on consistency between overlapping flight swaths and comparisons to ground control points. The resulting DEM substantially improves upon Shuttle Radar Topography Mission and USGS photogrammetric mapping. For example, the DEM defines the size and spatial distribution of flood erratics left by the Electron lahar and of megaclasts within the Round Pass lahar, important for characterizing the lahar hydraulics. A previously unknown lateral levee on the Round Pass lahar is also revealed. In addition, to illustrating geomorfic feature within the WRZ, future plans for laser mapping of the Saint Helens and Darrington seismic zones will be described.

Harding, David J.↗

Improving the Simulation of Sea Ice Lead Conditions and Turbulent Fluxes Using RGPS Products and Merged RADARSAT, AVHRR and MODIS Data

The importance of sea ice leads in the ice-ocean-atmosphere system lies in the fact that each of the boxes in the 'surface processes' interface in this diagram is closely linked to lead conditions. For example, heat, moisture and salt exchange between the Ocean and atmosphere within the ice pack occur nearly entirely through leads. The shear, divergence and convergence associated with lead formation and closure alter surface and basal roughness and topography, which in turn affects momentum transfer in the atmosphere and ocean boundary layers, and modifies the accumulation of snow on the ice surface, which then affects heat conduction and summertime albedo. In addition to providing openings for loss of heat and moisture fluxes to the atmosphere, leads absorb solar energy, which is used to melt ice and is transmitting to the underlying ocean. Given that leads dominate the ice-ocean interface in this manner, then it stands to reason that focusing on lead treatments within models can identify performance limitations of models and yield routes for significant improvements.

Maslanik, James A.↗

Evidence for a temperature rise in the outer layers of alpha Lyrae, from Copernicus observations of Lyman-alpha

Copernicus satellite observations of the Ly-alpha profiles in alpha Lyrae (Vega) are used to determine whether classical radiative-equilibrium LTE model atmospheres can fit the thermal structure in the outer layers of that star. Two plane-parallel LTE model photospheres of alpha Lyrae are considered: a line-blanketed radiative-equilibrium model with an effective temperature of 9650 K and log g of 4.05, and the same model with a temperature of 9500 K and log g of 4.0. The profiles of the Ly-alpha wings are computed, and it is found that classical LTE models are unable to predict either the observed violet wing or the red wing longwards of 1239 A, regardless of the line source function. It is concluded that the electron temperature must increase outwards over the surface value reached in radiative equilibrium.

Praderie, F.↗

Interstellar grains

There are few aspects of interstellar grains that can be unambiguously defined. Very little can be said that is independent of models or presuppositions; hence issues are raised and questions categorized, rather than providing definitive answers. The questions are issues fall into three general areas; the general physical and chemical nature of the grains; the processes by which they are formed and destroyed; and future observational approaches.

Snow, T. P.↗

Spatially Complete Surface Albedo Data Sets: Value-Added Products Derived from Terra MODIS Land Products

Spectral land surface albedo is an important parameter for describing the radiative properties of the Earth. Accordingly it reflects the consequences of natural and human interactions, such as anthropogenic, meteorological, and phenological effects, on global and local climatological trends. Consequently, albedos are integral parts in a variety of research areas, such as general circulation models (GCMs), energy balance studies, modeling of land use and land use change, and biophysical, oceanographic, and meteorological studies. The availability of global albedo data over a large range of spectral channels and at high spatial resolution has dramatically improved with the launch of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument aboard NASA s Earth Observing System (EOS) Terra spacecraft in December 1999. However, lack of spatial and temporal coverage due to cloud and snow effects can preclude utilization of official products in production and research studies. We report on a technique used to fill incomplete MOD43 albedo data sets with the intention of providing complete value-added maps. The technique is influenced by the phenological concept that within a certain area, a pixel s ecosystem class should exhibit similar growth cycle events over the same time period. The shape of an area s phenological temporal curve can be imposed upon existing pixel-level data to fill missing temporal points. The methodology will be reviewed by showcasing 2001 global and regional results of complete albedo and NDVl data sets.

Moody, E. G.↗

Arctic sea ice albedo: Spectral composition, spatial heterogeneity, and temporal evolution observed during the MOSAiC drift

The magnitude, spectral composition, and variability of the Arctic sea ice surface albedo are key to understanding and numerically simulating Earth’s shortwave energy budget. Spectral and broadband albedos of Arctic sea ice were spatially and temporally sampled by on-ice observers along individual survey lines throughout the sunlit season (April–September, 2020) during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition. The seasonal evolution of albedo for the MOSAiC year was constructed from spatially averaged broadband albedo values for each line. Specific locations were identified as representative of individual ice surface types, including accumulated dry snow, melting snow, bare and melting ice, melting and refreezing ponded ice, and sediment-laden ice. The area-averaged seasonal progression of total albedo recorded during MOSAiC showed remarkable similarity to that recorded 22 years prior on multiyear sea ice during the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) expedition. In accord with these and other previous field efforts, the spectral albedo of relatively thick, snow-free, melting sea ice shows invariance across location, decade, and ice type. In particular, the albedo of snow-free, melting seasonal ice was indistinguishable from that of snow-free, melting second-year ice, suggesting that the highly scattering surface layer that forms on sea ice during the summer is robust and stabilizing. In contrast, the albedo of ponded ice was observed to be highly variable at visible wavelengths. Notable temporal changes in albedo were documented during melt and freeze onset, formation and deepening of melt ponds, and during melt evolution of sediment-laden ice. While model simulations show considerable agreement with the observed seasonal albedo progression, disparities suggest the need to improve how the albedo of both ponded ice and thin, melting ice are simulated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Dark Target research aerosol algorithm for MODIS observations over eastern China: increasing coverage while maintaining accuracy at high aerosol loading

Satellite aerosol products such as the Dark Target (DT) produced from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) are useful for monitoring the progress of air pollution. Unfortunately, the DT often fails to retrieve during the heaviest aerosol events as well as the more moderate events in winter. Some of the literature at-tributes this lack of retrieval to the cloud mask. However, we found this lack of retrieval is mainly traced to thresholds used for masking of inland water and snow. Modifications to these two masks greatly increase 50 % of the retrievals of aerosol optical depth at 0.55 μm (AOD) greater than 1.0. The “extra”-high-AOD retrievals tend to be biased when com-pared with a ground-based sun photometer (AErosol RObotic NETwork, AERONET). Reducing bias in new retrievals re-quires two additional steps. One is an update to the assumed aerosol optical properties (aerosol model); the haze in this region is both less absorbing and lower in altitude than what is assumed in the global algorithm. The second is account-ing for the scale height of the aerosol, specifically that the heavy-aerosol events in the region are much closer to the surface than what is assumed by the global DT algorithm. The resulting combination of modified masking thresholds, new aerosol model, and lower aerosol layer scale height was applied to 3 months of MODIS observations (January–March2013) over eastern China. After these two additional steps are implemented, the significant increase in new retrievals introduces no overall bias at a high-AOD regime but does degrade other overall validation statistics. We also find that the research algorithm is able to identify additional pollution events that AERONET instruments may not due to different spatial sampling. Mean AOD retrieved from the re-search algorithm increases from 0.11 to 0.18 compared to values calculated from the operational DT algorithm during January to March of 2013 over the study area. But near Beijing, where the severe pollution occurs, the new algorithm increases AOD by as much as 3.0 for each 0.5°grid box over the previous operational-algorithm values.

Dark Target↗

Constraining Hydrological and Cryospheric Mass Flux in Southeastern Alaska using Space-Based Gravity Measurements

Watersheds draining into the Gulf of Alaska (GoA) experience large seasonal and inter-annual variations of water in the form of rain, snow, and ice, but accurate constraints on these variations have been difficult to obtain. Over larger geographic regions, water variations can be inferred directly from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data. However, because GoA variations occur over such a small region, the inferred average value of water flux increases as the applied smoothing of the GRACE data decreases. We use this observed scaling together with scaling results obtained from forward models to infer a seasonal amplitude of 115 plus or minus 20 cubic kilometers of water and an average contribution to sea level rise over the two years of data of 0.31 plus or minus 0.09 millimeters per year. These results suggest that accelerated melting that began in the late 1990s, as inferred from altimetry, continues unabated.

Tamisiea, M. E.↗