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DOE OSTI2017

Sensitivity of the interannual variability of mineral aerosol simulations to meteorological forcing dataset

Abstract. Interannual variability in desert dust is widely observed and simulated, yet the sensitivity of these desert dust simulations to a particular meteorological dataset, as well as a particular model construction, is not well known. Here we use version 4 of the Community Atmospheric Model (CAM4) with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to simulate dust forced by three different reanalysis meteorological datasets for the period 1990–2005. We then contrast the results of these simulations with dust simulated using online winds dynamically generated from sea surface temperatures, as well as with simulations conducted using other modeling frameworks but the same meteorological forcings, in order to determine the sensitivity of climate model output to the specific reanalysis dataset used. For the seven cases considered in our study, the different model configurations are able to simulate the annual mean of the global dust cycle, seasonality and interannual variability approximately equally well (or poorly) at the limited observational sites available. Overall, aerosol dust-source strength has remained fairly constant during the time period from 1990 to 2005, although there is strong seasonal and some interannual variability simulated in the models and seen in the observations over this time period. Model interannual variability comparisons to observations, as well as comparisons between models, suggest that interannual variability in dust is still difficult to simulate accurately, with averaged correlation coefficients of 0.1 to 0.6. Because of the large variability, at least 1 year of observations at most sites are needed to correctly observe the mean, but in some regions, particularly the remote oceans of the Southern Hemisphere, where interannual variability may be larger than in the Northern Hemisphere, 2–3 years of data are likely to be needed.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Microphysics of summer clouds in central West Antarctica simulated by the Polar Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) and the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS)

Abstract. The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE) provided a highly detailed set of remote-sensing and surface observations to study Antarctic clouds and surface energy balance, which have received much less attention than for the Arctic due to greater logistical challenges. Limited prior Antarctic cloud observations have slowed the progress of numerical weather prediction in this region. The AWARE observations from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) Divide during December 2015 and January 2016 are used to evaluate the operational forecasts of the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) and new simulations with the Polar Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) 3.9.1. The Polar WRF 3.9.1 simulations are conducted with the WRF single-moment 5-class microphysics (WSM5C) used by the AMPS and with newer generation microphysics schemes. The AMPS simulates few liquid clouds during summer at the WAIS Divide, which is inconsistent with observations of frequent low-level liquid clouds. Polar WRF 3.9.1 simulations show that this result is a consequence of WSM5C. More advanced microphysics schemes simulate more cloud liquid water and produce stronger cloud radiative forcing, resulting in downward longwave and shortwave radiation at the surface more in agreement with observations. Similarly, increased cloud fraction is simulated with the more advanced microphysics schemes. All of the simulations, however, produce smaller net cloud fractions than observed. Ice water paths vary less between the simulations than liquid water paths. The colder and drier atmosphere driven by the Global Forecast System (GFS) initial and boundary conditions for AMPS forecasts produces lesser cloud amounts than the Polar WRF 3.9.1 simulations driven by ERA-Interim.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Use of polarimetric radar measurements to constrain simulated convective cell evolution: a pilot study with Lagrangian tracking

Abstract. To probe the potential value of a radar-driven field campaign to constrain simulation of isolated convection subject to a strong aerosol perturbation, convective cells observed by the operational KHGX weather radar in the vicinity of Houston, Texas, are examined individually and statistically. Cells observed in a single case study of onshore flow conditions during July 2013 are first examined and compared with cells in a regional model simulation. Observed and simulated cells are objectively identified and tracked from observed or calculated positive specific differential phase ( K DP ) above the melting level, which is related to the presence of supercooled liquid water. Several observed and simulated cells are subjectively selected for further examination. Below the melting level, we compare sequential cross sections of retrieved and simulated raindrop size distribution parameters. Above the melting level, we examine time series of K DP and radar differential reflectivity ( Z DR ) statistics from observations and calculated from simulated supercooled rain properties, alongside simulated vertical wind and supercooled rain mixing ratio statistics. Results indicate that the operational weather radar measurements offer multiple constraints on the properties of simulated convective cells, with substantial value added from derived K DP and retrieved rain properties. The value of collocated three-dimensional lightning mapping array measurements, which are relatively rare in the continental US, supports the choice of Houston as a suitable location for future field studies to improve the simulation and understanding of convective updraft physics. However, rapid evolution of cells between routine volume scans motivates consideration of adaptive scan strategies or radar imaging technologies to amend operational weather radar capabilities. A 3-year climatology of isolated cell tracks, prepared using a more efficient algorithm, yields additional relevant information. Isolated cells are found within the KHGX domain on roughly 40 % of days year-round, with greatest concentration in the northwest quadrant, but roughly 5-fold more cells occur during June through September. During this enhanced occurrence period, the cells initiate following a strong diurnal cycle that peaks in the early afternoon, typically follow a south-to-north flow, and dissipate within 1 h, consistent with the case study examples. Statistics indicate that ~  150 isolated cells initiate and dissipate within 70 km of the KHGX radar during the enhanced occurrence period annually, and roughly 10 times as many within 200 km, suitable for multi-instrument Lagrangian observation strategies. In addition to ancillary meteorological and aerosol measurements, robust vertical wind speed retrievals would add substantial value to a radar-driven field campaign.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Diagnostic and model dependent uncertainty of simulated Tibetan permafrost area

We perform a land-surface model intercomparison to investigate how the simulation of permafrost area on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) varies among six modern stand-alone land-surface models (CLM4.5, CoLM, ISBA, JULES, LPJ-GUESS, UVic). Here, we also examine the variability in simulated permafrost area and distribution introduced by five different methods of diagnosing permafrost (from modeled monthly ground temperature, mean annual ground and air temperatures, air and surface frost indexes). There is good agreement (99 to 135 × 10 4 km 2 ) between the two diagnostic methods based on air temperature which are also consistent with the observation-based estimate of actual permafrost area (101 ×10 4 km 2 ). However the uncertainty (1 to 128 × 10 4 km 2 ) using the three methods that require simulation of ground temperature is much greater. Moreover simulated permafrost distribution on the TP is generally only fair to poor for these three methods (diagnosis of permafrost from monthly, and mean annual ground temperature, and surface frost index), while permafrost distribution using air-temperature-based methods is generally good. Model evaluation at field sites highlights specific problems in process simulations likely related to soil texture specification, vegetation types and snow cover. Models are particularly poor at simulating permafrost distribution using the definition that soil temperature remains at or below 0°C for 24 consecutive months, which requires reliable simulation of both mean annual ground temperatures and seasonal cycle, and hence is relatively demanding. Although models can produce better permafrost maps using mean annual ground temperature and surface frost index, analysis of simulated soil temperature profiles reveals substantial biases. The current generation of land-surface models need to reduce biases in simulated soil temperature profiles before reliable contemporary permafrost maps and predictions of changes in future permafrost distribution can be made for the Tibetan Plateau.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Simulations suggest offshore wind farms modify low-level jets

Abstract. Offshore wind farms are scheduled to be constructed along the East Coast of the US in the coming years. Low-level jets (LLJs) – layers of relatively fast winds at low altitudes – also occur frequently in this region. Because LLJs provide considerable wind resources, it is important to understand how LLJs might change with turbine construction. LLJs also influence moisture and pollution transport; thus, the effects of wind farms on LLJs could also affect the region’s meteorology. In the absence of observations or significant wind farm construction as yet, we compare 1 year of simulations from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with and without wind farms incorporated, focusing on locations chosen by their proximity to future wind development areas. We develop and present an algorithm to detect LLJs at each hour of the year at each of these locations. We validate the algorithm to the extent possible by comparing LLJs identified by lidar, constrained to the lowest 200 m, to WRF simulations of these very low LLJs (vLLJs). In the NOW-WAKES simulation data set, we find offshore LLJs in this region occur about 25 % of the time, most frequently at night, in the spring and summer months, in stably stratified conditions, and when a southwesterly wind is blowing. LLJ wind speed maxima range from 10 m s−1 to over 40 m s−1. The altitude of maximum wind speed, or the jet “nose”, is typically 300 m above the surface, above the height of most profiling lidars, although several hours of vLLJs occur in each month in the data set. The diurnal cycle for vLLJs is less pronounced than for all LLJs. Wind farms erode LLJs, as LLJs occur less frequently (19 %–20 % of hours) in the wind farm simulations than in the no-wind-farm (NWF) simulation (25 % of hours). When LLJs do occur in the simulation with wind farms, their noses are higher than in the NWF simulation: the LLJ nose has a mean altitude near 300 m for the NWF jets, but that nose height moves higher in the presence of wind farms, to a mean altitude near 400 m. Rotor region (30–250 m) wind veer is reduced across almost all months of the year in the wind farm simulations, while rotor region wind shear is similar in both simulations.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2014

Improving the Performance of the Extreme-scale Simulator

Investigating the performance of parallel applications at scale on future high-performance computing (HPC) architectures and the performance impact of different architecture choices is an important component of HPC hardware/software co-design. The Extreme-scale Simulator (xSim) is a simulation-based toolkit for investigating the performance of parallel applications at scale. xSim scales to millions of simulated Message Passing Interface (MPI) processes. The overhead introduced by a simulation tool is an important performance and productivity aspect. This paper documents two improvements to xSim: (1) a new deadlock resolution protocol to reduce the parallel discrete event simulation management overhead and (2) a new simulated MPI message matching algorithm to reduce the oversubscription management overhead. The results clearly show a significant performance improvement, such as by reducing the simulation overhead for running the NAS Parallel Benchmark suite inside the simulator from 1,020\% to 238% for the conjugate gradient (CG) benchmark and from 102% to 0% for the embarrassingly parallel (EP) and benchmark, as well as, from 37,511% to 13,808% for CG and from 3,332% to 204% for EP with accurate process failure simulation.

Engelmann, Christian↗

DOE OSTI2021

Model based co-simulation platform for integrated building system control and design optimization

Both steady-state and dynamic simulations have been widely used by HVAC&R industry to support product/equipment development for decades. Steady-state simulation focuses on the system mass, energy and momentum balance of an equilibrium state. It is based on high-fidelity components models, and thus is suitable for system and component design optimization. Dynamic simulation studies the system transient response and is generally used for controls development and verification. It usually does not require rigorous component models of high accuracy because 1) the commonly used PID control is feedback control whose control performance evaluation doesn’t require high fidelity system/plant model; 2) high-fidelity dynamic model significantly increases the number of equations and variables and creates tremendous challenge for math solver. For supervisory control, transactive control or optimization of an integrated building system, the HVAC&R equipment is often one of the sub-components to be controlled. High-fidelity equipment models are required for accurately evaluating control strategies. In addition, building equipment manufacturers have developed a lot of high-fidelity steady-state equipment/component models per their expertise. Thus, a platform that can integrate OEM high-fidelity steady-state model with dynamic building simulation and/or electric power system & grid simulation to support the development and verification of supervisory control for integrated building systems is necessary. In this study, ORNL’s heat pump design tool (HPDM) is utilized to develop a co-simulation platform for supervisory control and optimization in integrated building systems. It is based on a model that integrates high-fidelity steady-state simulation equipment models with dynamic building simulation. A practical case of using the proposed co-simulation platform to develop and evaluate the supervisory control and optimization is presented and discussed.

Sun, Jian↗

DOE OSTI2021

An HPC-Based Hydrothermal Finite Element Simulator for Modeling Underground Response to Community-Scale Geothermal Energy Production

Geothermal heat, as renewable energy, shows great advantage with respect to its environmental impact due to its significantly lower CO2 emissions than conventional fossil fuel. Open and closed-loop geothermal heat pumps, which utilize shallow geothermal systems, are an efficient technology for cooling and heating buildings, especially in urban areas. Integrated use of geothermal energy technologies for district heating, cooling, and thermal energy storage can be applied to optimize the subsurface for communities to provide them with multiple sustainable energy and community resilience benefits. The utilization of the subsurface resources may lead to a variation in the underground environment, which might further impact local environmental conditions. However, very few simulators can handle such a highly complex set of coupled computations on a regional or city scale. We have developed high-performance computing (HPC) based hydrothermal finite element (FE) simulator that can simulate the subsurface and its hydrothermal conditions at a scale of tens of km. The HPC simulator enables us to investigate the subsurface thermal and hydrologic response to the built underground environment (such as basements and subways) at the community scale. In this study, a coupled hydrothermal simulator is developed based on the open-source finite element library deal.II. The HPC simulator was validated by comparing the results of a benchmark case study against COMSOL Multiphysics, in which Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage (ATES) is modeled and a process of heat injection into ATES is simulated. The use of an energy pile system at the Treasure Island redevelopment site (San Francisco, CA, USA) was selected as a case study to demonstrate the HPC capability of the developed simulator. The simulator is capable of modeling multiple city-scale geothermal scenarios in a reasonable amount of time.

Sun, Xiang↗

DOE OSTI2024

Using Computer Simulations to Optimize Biofuel Production

The DOE strives to ensure America's security and prosperity by addressing energy challenges. NREL shares this goal and tries to achieve a clean energy world. Fossil fuels are problematic for both organizations. Using them endangers American security. Their supply is finite and burning them causes environmental damage. Biofuels are a good alternative to fossil fuels. They are renewably produced on American soil and can lower greenhouse gas emissions. Also, cars and planes need no costly mechanical adjustments to use biofuels. However, the fuels themselves are expensive. For my SULI project, I reduced the cost of biofuels by optimizing the production process through computer simulations. Existing simulations were accurate but slow. One simulation takes up to eight hours, and researchers must do hundreds. My solution reduces the computing time. I treated the biomass particles in the simulation as one-dimensional. That simplified the simulation equations, making them easier for the computer to solve. Still, biomass particles are three-dimensional. The 1D assumption was wrong and produced inaccurate results. To maintain accuracy while increasing speed, I developed a method to convert 1D simulation results into usable 3D data. I adjusted the 1D simulation until the output matched the 3D results for a specific environment. I found out how much the simulation changed when the environment changed. Machine learning algorithms defined a relationship between 1D and 3D data for all environments. This lets scientists convert fast 1D simulation results into valid 3D data.

1D↗

DOE OSTI2026

Connect microstructure evolution to property degradation with validated simulation

Reliable material performance is required for plasma-facing material (PFM) candidates. Previous research has shown that plasma and neutron radiation exposure induces microstructural changes in PFMs; changes in thermal and electrical conductivities and in material hardening and embrittlement were also observed after neutron irradiation. These material property changes will negatively impact the performance of the PFMs in a fusion reactor. Despite the well-known connection between material microstructure, properties, and performance, there is a need for validated modeling capabilities connecting PFM property degradation with microstructural evolution under fusion-relevant conditions. We are developing a simulation capability to couple plasma-induced microstructural evolution to material property degradation. Our approach relies on deliberate mapping between individual simulation models and experimental characterization for validation. The open-source Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) software was used for this simulation capability development. A MOOSE phase-field model was coupled with the cluster dynamics code, Xolotl, to predict microstructural evolution. Microstructure characterization techniques, including scanning electron microscopy (SEM), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), and laser scanning confocal microscopy (LSCM) are used to validate these microstructural evolution simulations. Calculation of thermal and electrical conductivities with first principles simulations was performed for bulk material and for grain boundaries; these results are used within MOOSE models to calculate effective thermal and electrical conductivities as a function of grain characteristics. Thermoreflectance and four-probe techniques were employed to measure the thermal and electrical conductivities, respectively. A MOOSE crystal plasticity model was adapted to predict microstructure-sensitive deformation behavior, and X-ray diffraction (XRD) was used to collect bulk dislocation density data for validation. After individual simulation validation, these models are coupled to predict material property changes resulting from plasma exposure. We focused here on an experimental design to emphasize the separate effects of moderate thermal loads and plasma exposure using tungsten. Annealing of tungsten was performed under a protective environment for temperatures ranging from 500$^o$C to 1500$^o$C. The plasma exposure was completed in the Tritium Plasma Experiment at Idaho National Laboratory under a deuterium flux of 1e22 $\frac{D}{m^2s}$. This incremental approach is employed to build confidence in the modeling capability: separate-effects tests ensure that the models capture key mechanisms from single environmental conditions before predicting PFM property degradation under combined loads. We will show our early results from coupling these simulation models to predict PFM property changes from microstructural evolution. Comparisons of the simulation results with preliminary validation data will be discussed.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2017

Trans-oceanic Remote Power Hardware-in-the-Loop: Multi-site Hardware, Integrated Controller, and Electric Network Co-simulation

Electric system operators are increasingly concerned with the potential system-wide impacts of the large-scale integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) including voltage control, protection coordination, and equipment wear. This prompts a need for new simulation techniques that can simultaneously capture all the components of these large integrated smart grid systems. This paper describes a novel platform that combines three emerging research areas: power systems co-simulation, power hardware in the loop (PHIL) simulation, and lab-lab links. The platform is distributed, real-time capable, allows for easy internet-based connection from geographically-dispersed participants, and is software platform agnostic. We demonstrate its utility by studying real-time PHIL co-simulation of coordinated solar PV firming control of two inverters connected in multiple electric distribution network models, prototypical of U.S. and Australian systems. Here, the novel trans-pacific closed-loop system simulation was conducted in real-time using a power network simulator and physical PV/battery inverter at power at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden, CO, USA and a physical PV inverter at power at the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation's Energy Centre in Newcastle, NSW, Australia. This capability enables smart grid researchers throughout the world to leverage their unique simulation capabilities for multi-site collaborations that can effectively simulate and validate emerging smart grid technology solutions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Numerical implications of including drifts in SOLPS-ITER simulations of EAST

The inclusion of drifts in plasma edge codes like SOLPS-ITER is required to match simulation data with experimental profiles. However, this remains numerically challenging. In this paper, the effect of some numerical factors on the final plasma solution is investigated. This study is performed on three EAST simulations in the upper single null configuration: an attached purely deuterium case, an attached case with limited Ne-seeding, and a detached Ne-seeded case. The effects of the anomalous conductivity and anomalous thermo-electric coefficient on the plasma potential are investigated. Next, the effect of the employed grids is shown. In order to investigate these effects, accurate drift simulations are needed. Therefore, the employed time step and numerical parameters are discussed for the three studied simulations. For all presented simulations, it is verified that the restriction of the grid to the first flux surface tangent to the main chamber wall is sufficient within the context of non-extended simulations. This means that the main power dissipation takes place inside the simulated domain, and only a small fraction of the power is leaving the B2.5 grid through the grid boundary closest to the first wall. Finally, the effect of drifts on the asymmetry between the inner and outer target for EAST simulations is demonstrated.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

SpecSims: A Scalable Speculative Tree-based Simulation Cloning Framework for Finite Memory Machines

Simulation cloning is a technique in which cloned simulations whose state spaces differ partially from their parent simulation due to intervening events are spawned at runtime and concurrently advanced. It is a powerful method to carry out what-if analysis by speculatively exploring and evaluating the impact of various permutations of intervening cascade of events. Due to the exponential growth in the number of possible clones even for a small number of distinct intervening events, the practical efficacy of the approach is often severely limited by the maximum available memory of the computing host. In this paper, we introduce a novel speculative simulation cloning framework that executes a simulation cloning campaign capable of efficiently exploring an exponentially large space of clone simulations created by permutation of intervening events under a finite memory constraint. We provide a theoretical analysis of the runtime characteristics of our proposed approach and highlight its novel advantages such as memory-aware and as-long-as-needed execution. Furthermore, in support of our analytical findings and to demonstrate its practical feasibility, we implement a prototype of the cloning framework on a shared memory system and report its performance characteristics in the context of a heat diffusion simulation, and a power grid simulation subject to cascading disruptions from geomagnetic disturbances.

Simulation framework↗

DOE OSTI2026

Differences in cluster and internal wake effects from mesoscale and large-eddy simulations off the US East Coast

Mesoscale simulations are increasingly used to estimate wake effects within and between large wind farms, despite limited validation for large-scale wake effects. This study evaluates the capabilities and limitations of mesoscale simulations in capturing wake-induced impacts on wind turbine power production through a direct comparison with large-domain large-eddy simulations (LESs) for three planned offshore wind farms under realistic atmospheric conditions and a range of atmospheric stabilities. We assess mesoscale performance in replicating wake characteristics behind single and multiple turbine clusters and quantify the resulting variability in mean turbine power. Results show that mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting simulations with the Fitch wind farm parameterization capture key features of the velocity deficit downstream of both single and multiple wind farms, with mean root-mean-square errors near 5 % and good agreement with stability-driven wake behavior. However, in these simulations, the mesoscale Fitch parameterization underestimates power losses from internal wake effects, particularly when turbines align with the prevailing wind direction or under stable stratification. In these conditions, individual wakes persist and dominate downstream power deficits. The coarse resolution of the mesoscale simulations limits their ability to resolve individual wind turbine wakes that drive power fluctuations within wind farms. Nonetheless, mesoscale simulations can yield accurate estimates of combined wake losses from internal and cluster effects across some wind direction sectors, where errors in wake representation may cancel each other out. These findings underscore the strengths of mesoscale simulations for capturing broader wake patterns while highlighting their limitations for modeling turbine-level power losses. Future work should explore hybrid modeling approaches to capture both long-range cluster wake propagation and localized internal wake dynamics.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2018

On the Need for a Unified and Collaboratively Developed Residential Building Simulation Platform: Preprint

Residential building energy simulations are becoming ever more pervasive; they form the basis of energy efficient building design, zero energy goals, codes and standards, home certification and ratings industries, utility programs, regional/state planning, and technology assessments. And yet the residential building simulation community is highly fragmented with a patchwork of simulation engines with varying models, inputs, assumptions, and results. This inconsistency degrades confidence in these tools, increases industry-wide development and maintenance costs, and slows the availability of new efficiency technology models. The need for collaboration on an impartial, transparent, and capable residential building simulation platform has never been greater. But to develop and maintain a state-of-the-art simulation platform requires a dedicated and sustained investment. By leveraging existing resources and expertise from multiple entities/regions, a unified and collaboratively developed simulation platform can provide increased levels of energy efficiency at an accelerated pace. This paper presents the advantages and disadvantages of a unified residential building simulation platform in relationship to four real-world examples (RESNET HERS ratings, utility programs, California's Title 24, and DOE). The paper covers recent developments and improved capabilities that may move us closer to an ideal simulation platform and what challenges remain. The hope is to spur a frank and honest dialogue about how to work together towards the vision of achieving deeper and more reliable energy savings in the residential buildings industry.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2018

On the Need for a Unified and Collaboratively Developed Residential Building Simulation Platform

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Using observational mean-flow data to drive large-eddy simulations of a diurnal cycle at the SWiFT site

Reproducing realistic date- and site-specific unsteady wind conditions in large-eddy simulations is becoming increasingly useful in wind energy. How to run a large-eddy simulation to match observed conditions, however, remains an open research question. One approach that has received considerable attention is mesoscale-to-microscale coupling, in which information about the mesoscale weather, most commonly acquired from a mesoscale numerical weather model, is passed on to a microscale model. In this paper, we demonstrate how the recently developed profile-assimilation technique, a form of mesoscale-to-microscale coupling, can be used to drive large-eddy simulations solely based on observed mean-flow profiles at a single location, bypassing the need for auxiliary mesoscale simulations. The new approach is evaluated for a diurnal cycle at the Scaled Wind Farm Technology site. Observed mean-flow profiles from the ground up to a height of 2 km are reconstructed by aggregating measurements from multiple instruments, and gaps in the data are infilled with natural neighbor interpolation. We perform nine simulations using various forcing approaches to deal with data limitations. The results show that it is indeed possible to drive microscale large-eddy simulation with observations using the profile-assimilation technique, notwithstanding large gaps in virtual potential temperature measurements. However, profile assimilation with vertical smoothing of the error between the desired and actual profiles is required. Without that smoothing, the microscale simulations develop unrealistically high turbulence levels under many situations. Finally, we show that simulated mesoscale data can account for missing observations, although care is needed as both data sources are not necessarily compatible.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Simulation of evapotranspiration and yield of maize: An inter-comparison among 41 maize models

Accurate simulation of crop water use (evapotranspiration, ET) can help crop growth models to assess the likely effects of climate change on future crop productivity, as well as being an aid for irrigation scheduling for today's growers. To determine how well maize (Zea mays L.) growth models can simulate ET, an initial inter-comparison study was conducted in 2019 under the umbrella of AgMIP (Agricultural Model Inter-Comparison and Improvement Project). Herein, we present results of a second inter-comparison study of 41 maize models that was conducted using more comprehensive datasets from two additional sites - Mead, Nebraska, USA and Bushland, Texas, USA. There were 20 treatment-years with varying irrigation levels over multiple seasons at both sites. ET was measured using eddy covariance at Mead and using large weighing lysimeters at Bushland. A wide range in ET rates was simulated among the models, yet several generally were able to simulate ET rates adequately. The ensemble median values were generally close to the observations, but a few of the models sometimes performed better than the median. Many of the models that did well at simulating ET for the Mead site did poorly for drier, windy days at the Bushland site, suggesting they need to improve how they handle humidity and wind. Additional variability came from the approaches used to simulate soil water evaporation. Fortunately, several models were identified that did well at simulating soil water evaporation, canopy transpiration, biomass accumulation, and grain yield. These models were older and have been widely used, which suggests that a larger number of users have tested these models over a wider range of conditions leading to their improvement. These revelations of the better approaches are leading to model improvements and more accurate simulations of ET.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗