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NASA NTRS2014

NASA SPoRT Modeling and Data Assimilation Research and Transition Activities Using WRF, LIS and GSI

weather research and forecasting ===== The NASA Short‐term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) program has numerous modeling and data assimilation (DA) activities in which the WRF model is a key component. SPoRT generates realtime, research satellite products from the MODIS and VIIRS instruments, making the data available to NOAA/NWS partners running the WRF/EMS, including: (1) 2‐km northwestern‐hemispheric SST composite, (2) daily, MODIS green vegetation fraction (GVF) over CONUS, and (3) NASA Land Information System (LIS) runs of the Noah LSM over the southeastern CONUS. Each of these datasets have been utilized by specific SPoRT partners in local EMS model runs, with select offices evaluating the impacts using a set of automated scripts developed by SPoRT that manage data acquisition and run the NCAR Model Evaluation Tools verification package. SPoRT is engaged in DA research with the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) and Ensemble Kalman Filter in LIS for soil moisture DA. Ongoing DA projects using GSI include comparing the impacts of assimilating Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) radiances versus retrieved profiles, and an analysis of extra‐tropical cyclones with intense non‐convective winds. As part of its Early Adopter activities for the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission, SPoRT is conducting bias correction and soil moisture DA within LIS to improve simulations using the NASA Unified‐WRF (NU‐WRF) for both the European Space Agency's Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity and upcoming SMAP mission data. SPoRT has also incorporated real‐time global GVF data into LIS and WRF from the VIIRS product being developed by NOAA/NESDIS. This poster will highlight the research and transition activities SPoRT conducts using WRF, NU‐WRF, EMS, LIS, and GSI.

Case, Jonathan L.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Numerical Simulations For the F-16XL Aircraft Configuration

Numerical simulations of flow around the F-16XL are presented as a contribution to the Cranked Arrow Wing Aerodynamic Project International II (CAWAPI-II). The NASA Tetrahedral Unstructured Software System (TetrUSS) is used to perform numerical simulations. This CFD suite, developed and maintained by NASA Langley Research Center, includes an unstructured grid generation program called VGRID, a postprocessor named POSTGRID, and the flow solver USM3D. The CRISP CFD package is utilized to provide error estimates and grid adaption for verification of USM3D results. A subsonic high angle-of-attack case flight condition (FC) 25 is computed and analyzed. Three turbulence models are used in the calculations: the one-equation Spalart-Allmaras (SA), the two-equation shear stress transport (SST) and the kε turbulence models. Computational results, and surface static pressure profiles are presented and compared with flight data. Solution verification is performed using formal grid refinement studies, the solution of Error Transport Equations, and adaptive mesh refinement. The current study shows that the USM3D solver coupled with CRISP CFD can be used in an engineering environment in predicting vortex-flow physics on a complex configuration at flight Reynolds numbers.

Elmiligui, Alaa A.↗

NASA NTRS2014

How Accurate is Land/Ocean Moisture Transport Variability in Reanalyses?

Quantifying the global hydrological cycle and its variability across various time scales remains a challenge to the climate community. Direct measurements of evaporation (E), evapotranspiration (ET), and precipitation (P) are not feasible on a global scale, nor is the transport of water vapor over the global oceans and sparsely populated land areas. Expanding satellite data streams have enabled development of various water (and energy) flux products, complementing reanalyses and facilitating observationally constrained modeling. But the evolution of the global observing system has produced additional complications--improvements in satellite sensor resolution and accuracy have resulted in "epochs" of observational quasi-uniformity that can adversely affect reanalysis trends. In this work we focus on vertically integrated moisture flux convergence (VMFC) variations within the period 1979 - present integrated over global land. We show that VMFC in recent reanalyses (e.g. ERA-I, NASA MERRA, NOAA CFSR and JRA55) suffers from observing system changes, though differently in each product. Land Surface Models (LSMs) forced with observations-based precipitation, radiation and near-surface meteorology share closely the interannual P-ET variations of the reanalyses associated with ENSO events. (VMFC over land and P-ET estimates are equivalent quantities since atmospheric storage changes are small on these scales.) But the long-term LSM trend over the period since 1979 is approximately one-fourth that of the reanalyses. Additional reduced observation reanalyses assimilating only surface pressure and /or specifying seasurface temperature also have a much smaller trend in P-ET like the LSMs. We explore the regional manifestation of the reanalysis P-ET / VMFC problems, particularly over land. Both principal component analysis and a simple time series changepoint analysis highlight problems associated with data poor regions such as Equatorial Africa and, for one reanalysis, the Equatorial Andes region. Onset of the availability of passive microwave Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSMI) moisture data in July 1987 and the transition from the Microwave Sounder Unit (MSU) to an advanced version (AMSU) have significant impacts on VMFC variability. Simple accounting for these errors of leading importance results in modified reanalysis VMFC estimates that agree much better with the LSM results. Regional details of the modified reanalysis VMFC and LSM P-ET are related to changes in Pacific Decadal Variability as manifest in SST changes after the late 1990s.

Robertson, F. R.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Temperature Trends in the Tropical Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere: Connections with Sea Surface Temperatures and Implications for Water Vapor and Ozone

Satellite observations and chemistry-climate model experiments are used to understand the zonal structure of tropical lower stratospheric temperature, water vapor, and ozone trends. The warming in the tropical upper troposphere over the past 30 years is strongest near the Indo-Pacific warm pool, while the warming trend in the western and central Pacific is much weaker. In the lower stratosphere, these trends are reversed: the historical cooling trend is strongest over the Indo-Pacific warm pool and is weakest in the western and central Pacific. These zonal variations are stronger than the zonal-mean response in boreal winter. Targeted experiments with a chemistry-climate model are used to demonstrate that sea surface temperature (hereafter SST) trends are driving the zonal asymmetry in upper tropospheric and lower stratospheric tropical temperature trends. Warming SSTs in the Indian Ocean and in the warm pool region have led to enhanced moist heating in the upper troposphere, and in turn to a Gill-like response that extends into the lower stratosphere. The anomalous circulation has led to zonal structure in the ozone and water vapor trends near the tropopause, and subsequently to less water vapor entering the stratosphere. The radiative impact of these changes in trace gases is smaller than the direct impact of the moist heating. Projected future SSTs appear to drive a temperature and water vapor response whose zonal structure is similar to the historical response. In the lower stratosphere, the changes in water vapor and temperature due to projected future SSTs are of similar strength to, though slightly weaker than, that due directly to projected future CO2, ozone, and methane.

water vapor↗

NASA NTRS2014

NMME Monthly / Seasonal Forecasts for NASA SERVIR Applications Science

This work details use of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) experimental forecasts as drivers for Decision Support Systems (DSSs) in the NASA / USAID initiative, SERVIR (a Spanish acronym meaning "to serve"). SERVIR integrates satellite observations, ground-based data and forecast models to monitor and forecast environmental changes and to improve response to natural disasters. Through the use of DSSs whose "front ends" are physically based models, the SERVIR activity provides a natural testbed to determine the extent to which NMME monthly to seasonal projections enable scientists, educators, project managers and policy implementers in developing countries to better use probabilistic outlooks of seasonal hydrologic anomalies in assessing agricultural / food security impacts, water availability, and risk to societal infrastructure. The multi-model NMME framework provides a "best practices" approach to probabilistic forecasting. The NMME forecasts are generated at resolution more coarse than that required to support DSS models; downscaling in both space and time is necessary. The methodology adopted here applied model output statistics where we use NMME ensemble monthly projections of sea-surface temperature (SST) and precipitation from 30 years of hindcasts with observations of precipitation and temperature for target regions. Since raw model forecasts are well-known to have structural biases, a cross-validated multivariate regression methodology (CCA) is used to link the model projected states as predictors to the predictands of the target region. The target regions include a number of basins in East and South Africa as well as the Ganges / Baramaputra / Meghna basin complex. The MOS approach used address spatial downscaling. Temporal disaggregation of monthly seasonal forecasts is achieved through use of a tercile bootstrapping approach. We interpret the results of these studies, the levels of skill by several metrics, and key uncertainties.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Improved Rainfall Estimates and Predictions for 21st Century Drought Early Warning

As temperatures increase, the onset and severity of droughts is likely to become more intense. Improved tools for understanding, monitoring and predicting droughts will be a key component of 21st century climate adaption. The best drought monitoring systems will bring together accurate precipitation estimates with skillful climate and weather forecasts. Such systems combine the predictive power inherent in the current land surface state with the predictive power inherent in low frequency ocean-atmosphere dynamics. To this end, researchers at the Climate Hazards Group (CHG), in collaboration with partners at the USGS and NASA, have developed i) a long (1981-present) quasi-global (50degS-50degN, 180degW-180degE) high resolution (0.05deg) homogenous precipitation data set designed specifically for drought monitoring, ii) tools for understanding and predicting East African boreal spring droughts, and iii) an integrated land surface modeling (LSM) system that combines rainfall observations and predictions to provide effective drought early warning. This talk briefly describes these three components. Component 1: CHIRPS The Climate Hazards group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS), blends station data with geostationary satellite observations to provide global near real time daily, pentadal and monthly precipitation estimates. We describe the CHIRPS algorithm and compare CHIRPS and other estimates to validation data. The CHIRPS is shown to have high correlation, low systematic errors (bias) and low mean absolute errors. Component 2: Hybrid statistical-dynamic forecast strategies East African droughts have increased in frequency, but become more predictable as Indo- Pacific SST gradients and Walker circulation disruptions intensify. We describe hybrid statistical-dynamic forecast strategies that are far superior to the raw output of coupled forecast models. These forecasts can be translated into probabilities that can be used to generate bootstrapped ensembles describing future climate conditions. Component 3: Assimilation using LSMs CHIRPS rainfall observations (component 1) and bootstrapped forecast ensembles (component 2) can be combined using LSMs to predict soil moisture deficits. We evaluate the skill such a system in East Africa, and demonstrate results for 2013.

Funk, Chris↗

NASA NTRS2014

Computational Investigation of Novel Tip Leakage Mitigation Methods for High Pressure Turbine Blades

This paper presents preliminary findings on a possible approach to reducing tip leakage losses. In this paper a computational study was conducted on the Energy Efficient Engine (EEE) High Pressure Turbine (HPT) rotor tip geometry using the commercial numerical solver ANSYS FLUENT. The flow solver was validated against aerodynamic data acquired in the NASA Transonic Turbine Blade Cascade facility. The scope of the ongoing study is to computationally investigate how the tip leakage and overall blade losses are affected by (1) injection from the tip near the pressure side, (2) injection from the tip surface at the camber line, and (3) injection from the tip surface into the tip separation bubble. The objective is to identify the locations on the tip surface at which to place appropriately configured blowing keeping in mind the film cooling application of tip blowing holes. The validation was conducted at Reynolds numbers of 85,000, 343,000, and 685,000 and at engine realistic flow conditions. The coolant injection simulations were conducted at a Reynolds number of 343,000 based on blade chord and inlet velocity and utilized the SST turbulence model in FLUENT. The key parameters examined are the number of jets, jet angle and jet location. A coolant to inlet pressure ratio of 1.0 was studied for angles of +30 deg, -30 deg, and 90 deg to the local free stream on the tip. For the 3 hole configuration, 3 holes spaced 3 hole diameters apart with length to diameter ratio of 1.5 were used. A simulation including 11 holes along the entire mean camber line is also presented (30 deg toward suction side). In addition, the effect of a single hole is also compared to a flat tip with no injection. The results provide insight into tip flow control methods and can be used to guide further investigation into tip flow control. As noted in past research it is concluded that reducing leakage flow is not necessarily synonymous with reducing losses due to leakage.

Ibrahim, Mounir↗

NASA NTRS2015

Evaluation of Industry Standard Turbulence Models on an Axisymmetric Supersonic Compression Corner

Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes computations of a shock-wave/boundary-layer interaction (SWBLI) created by a Mach 2.85 flow over an axisymmetric 30-degree compression corner were carried out. The objectives were to evaluate four turbulence models commonly used in industry, for SWBLIs, and to evaluate the suitability of this test case for use in further turbulence model benchmarking. The Spalart-Allmaras model, Menter's Baseline and Shear Stress Transport models, and a low-Reynolds number k- model were evaluated. Results indicate that the models do not accurately predict the separation location; with the SST model predicting the separation onset too early and the other models predicting the onset too late. Overall the Spalart-Allmaras model did the best job in matching the experimental data. However there is significant room for improvement, most notably in the prediction of the turbulent shear stress. Density data showed that the simulations did not accurately predict the thermal boundary layer upstream of the SWBLI. The effect of turbulent Prandtl number and wall temperature were studied in an attempt to improve this prediction and understand their effects on the interaction. The data showed that both parameters can significantly affect the separation size and location, but did not improve the agreement with the experiment. This case proved challenging to compute and should provide a good test for future turbulence modeling work.

Turbulent Boundary Layer↗

NASA NTRS2015

Improved Rainfall Estimates and Predictions for 21st Century Drought Early Warning

Funk, Chris↗

NASA NTRS2015

Numerical Calculations of 3-D High-Lift Flows and Comparison with Experiment

Solutions were obtained with the Navier-Stokes CFD code TLNS3D to predict the flow about the NASA Trapezoidal Wing, a high-lift wing composed of three elements: the main-wing element, a deployed leading-edge slat, and a deployed trailing-edge flap. Turbulence was modeled by the Spalart-Allmaras one-equation turbulence model. One case with massive separation was repeated using Menter's two-equation SST (Menter's Shear Stress Transport) k-omega turbulence model in an attempt to improve the agreement with experiment. The investigation was conducted at a free stream Mach number of 0.2, and at angles of attack ranging from 10.004 degrees to 34.858 degrees. The Reynolds number based on the mean aerodynamic chord of the wing was 4.3 x 10 (sup 6). Compared to experiment, the numerical procedure predicted the surface pressures very well at angles of attack in the linear range of the lift. However, computed maximum lift was 5% low. Drag was mainly under predicted. The procedure correctly predicted several well-known trends and features of high-lift flows, such as off-body separation. The two turbulence models yielded significantly different solutions for the repeated case.

Compton, William B, III↗

NASA NTRS2014

The Use, Evolution and Lessons Learnt of Deployable Static Solar Array Mechanisms

This paper focuses on the mechanisms incorporated into SSTL's static deployable arrays; namely the sprung-hinges and hold down and release mechanism (HDRM). Combined, the HDRM and hinges form the hold down release system (HDRS). The deployable static solar array HDRS has been successfully used on several missions, first launched upon the DMC-CFESAT spacecraft in 2007 for a U.S. customer (Figure 1), and later used on DMC-UK2 and EXACTVIEW-1 launched in 2009 and 2012, respectively. The simple, robust and low-cost solution HDRS has been evident in allowing missions to satisfy an ever increasing power demand, allowing the solar arrays to increase in size and have a preferable sun angle for increased cell efficiency. The system is now being employed on the first mission out of SSTL's U.S. office (SST-US) on the Orbital Test Bed platform. This paper shall cover details of the original design and development program, problems incurred on latter missions, and evolution of the HDRS for the present Orbital Test Bed mission. Both the original development and recent evolutions have taken place in rapid timescales, to satisfy the high-turnaround of SSTL missions.

Ferris, Mark↗

NASA NTRS2012

Sea Surface Salinity : Research Challenges and Opportunities

Sea surface salinity (SSS) can be important in regulating sea surface temperature (SST). Two technological breakthrough satellite SSS missions, Aquarius and Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS), are currently producing high-quality SSS data. This paper provides an overview of the importance of SSS for weather and climate applications and describes the Aquarius and SMOS missions. The newness of adequately sampled SSS data prompted a first-time at-sea field campaign devoted to improved understanding of SSS variations.

Aquarius↗

NASA NTRS2014

Computational Investigation of Novel Tip Leakage Mitigation Methods for High Pressure Turbine Blades

This paper presents preliminary findings on a possible approach to reducing tip leakage losses. In this paper a computational study was conducted on the EEE (Energy Efficient Engine) HPT (High Pressure Turbine) rotor tip geometry using the commercial numerical solver ANSYS FLUENT. The flow solver was validated against aerodynamic data acquired in the NASA Transonic Turbine Blade Cascade facility. The scope of the ongoing study is to computationally investigate how the tip leakage and overall blade losses are affected by 1. injection from the tip near the pressure side, 2. injection from the tip surface at the camber line, and 3. injection from the tip surface into the tip separation bubble. The objective is to identify the locations on the tip surface at which to place appropriately configured blowing keeping in mind the film cooling application of tip blowing holes. The validation was conducted at Reynolds numbers of 85,000, 343,000 and 685,000 and at engine realistic flow conditions. The coolant injection simulations were conducted at a Reynolds number of 343,000 based on blade chord and inlet velocity and utilized the SST turbulence model in FLUENT. The key parameters examined are the number of jets, jet angle and jet location. A coolant to inlet pressure ratio of 1.0 was studied for angles of +30 deg., -30 deg. and 90 deg. to the local free stream on the tip. For the 3 hole configuration, 3 holes spaced 3 hole diameters apart with length to diameter ratio of 1.5 were used. A simulation including 11 holes along the entire mean camber line is also presented (30 degrees toward suction side). In addition, the effect of a single hole is also compared to a flat tip with no injection. The results provide insight into tip flow control methods and can be used to guide further investigation into tip flow control. As noted in past research it is concluded that reducing leakage flow is not necessarily synonymous with reducing losses due to leakage.

Ibrahim, Mounir↗

NASA NTRS2015

Effect of Recent Sea Surface Temperature Trends on the Arctic Stratospheric Vortex

The springtime Arctic polar vortex has cooled significantly over the satellite era, with consequences for ozone concentrations in the springtime transition season. The causes of this cooling trend are deduced by using comprehensive chemistry-climate model experiments. Approximately half of the satellite era early springtime cooling trend in the Arctic lower stratosphere was caused by changing sea surface temperatures (SSTs). An ensemble of experiments forced only by changing SSTs is compared to an ensemble of experiments in which both the observed SSTs and chemically- and radiatively-active trace species are changing. By comparing the two ensembles, it is shown that warming of Indian Ocean, North Pacific, and North Atlantic SSTs, and cooling of the tropical Pacific, have strongly contributed to recent polar stratospheric cooling in late winter and early spring, and to a weak polar stratospheric warming in early winter. When concentrations of ozone-depleting substances and greenhouse gases are fixed, polar ozone concentrations show a small but robust decline due to changing SSTs. Ozone changes are magnified in the presence of changing gas concentrations. The stratospheric changes can be understood by examining the tropospheric height and heat flux anomalies generated by the anomalous SSTs. Finally, recent SST changes have contributed to a decrease in the frequency of late winter stratospheric sudden warmings.

Arctic↗

NASA NTRS2013

Dataset Lifecycle Policy

The presentation focused on describing a new dataset lifecycle policy that the NASA Physical Oceanography DAAC (PO.DAAC) has implemented for its new and current datasets to foster improved stewardship and consistency across its archive. The overarching goal is to implement this dataset lifecycle policy for all new GHRSST GDS2 datasets and bridge the mission statements from the GHRSST Project Office and PO.DAAC to provide the best quality SST data in a cost-effective, efficient manner, preserving its integrity so that it will be available and usable to a wide audience.

best practices↗

NASA NTRS2015

Effect of Interfacial Turbulence and Accommodation Coefficient on CFD Predictions of Pressurization and Pressure Control in Cryogenic Storage Tank

Laminar models agree closely with the pressure evolution and vapor phase temperature stratification but under-predict liquid temperatures. Turbulent SST k-w and k-e models under-predict the pressurization rate and extent of stratification in the vapor but represent liquid temperature distributions fairly well. These conclusions seem to equally apply to large cryogenic tank simulations as well as small scale simulant fluid pressurization cases. Appropriate turbulent models that represent both interfacial and bulk vapor phase turbulence with greater fidelity are needed. Application of LES models to the tank pressurization problem can serve as a starting point.

Condensation Evaporation↗

NASA NTRS2015

Relative Contributions of Mean-State Shifts and ENSO-Driven Variability to Precipitation Changes in a Warming Climate

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important driver of regional hydroclimate variability through far-reaching teleconnections. This study uses simulations performed with Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs) to investigate how regional precipitation in the 21st century may be affected by changes in both ENSO-driven precipitation variability and slowly-evolving mean rainfall. First, a dominant, time-invariant pattern of canonical ENSO variability (cENSO) is identified in observed SST data. Next, the fidelity with which 33 state-of-the-art CGCMs represent the spatial structure and temporal variability of this pattern (as well as its associated precipitation responses) is evaluated in simulations of 20th century climate change. Possible changes in both the temporal variability of this pattern and its associated precipitation teleconnections are investigated in 21st century climate projections. Models with better representation of the observed structure of the cENSO pattern produce winter rainfall teleconnection patterns that are in better accord with 20th century observations and more stationary during the 21st century. Finally, the model-predicted 21st century rainfall response to cENSO is decomposed into the sum of three terms: 1) the 21st century change in the mean state of precipitation; 2) the historical precipitation response to the cENSO pattern; and 3) a future enhancement in the rainfall response to cENSO, which amplifies rainfall extremes. By examining the three terms jointly, this conceptual framework allows the identification of regions likely to experience future rainfall anomalies that are without precedent in the current climate.

Celine J W Bonfils↗

NASA NTRS2015

Relative Contributions of Mean-State Shifts and ENSO-Driven Variability to Precipitation Changes in a Warming Climate

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important driver of regional hydroclimate variability through far-reaching teleconnections. This study uses simulations performed with coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) to investigate how regional precipitation in the twenty-first century may be affected by changes in both ENSO-driven precipitation variability and slowly evolving mean rainfall. First, a dominant, time-invariant pattern of canonical ENSO variability (cENSO) is identified in observed SST data. Next, the fidelity with which 33 state-of-the-art CGCMs represent the spatial structure and temporal variability of this pattern (as well as its associated precipitation responses) is evaluated in simulations of twentieth-century climate change. Possible changes in both the temporal variability of this pattern and its associated precipitation teleconnections are investigated in twenty-first-century climate projections. Models with better representation of the observed structure of the cENSO pattern produce winter rainfall teleconnection patterns that are in better accord with twentieth-century observations and more stationary during the twenty-first century. Finally, the model-predicted twenty-first-century rainfall response to cENSO is decomposed into the sum of three terms: 1) the twenty-first-century change in the mean state of precipitation, 2) the historical precipitation response to the cENSO pattern, and 3) a future enhancement in the rainfall response to cENSO, which amplifies rainfall extremes. By examining the three terms jointly, this conceptual framework allows the identification of regions likely to experience future rainfall anomalies that are without precedent in the current climate.

Simulation↗