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Characterizing the Influence of the General Circulation on Marine Boundary Layer Clouds

The seasonal and intraseasonal variability of boundary layer cloud in the subtropical eastern oceans are studied using combined data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis. Spectral analysis reveals that most of the time variability of cloud properties occurs on seasonal to annual time scales. The variance decreases one to two orders of magnitude for each decade of time scale decrease, indicating that daily to monthly time scales have smaller, but non-negligible variability. The length of these dominant time scales suggests that the majority of the variability is influenced by the general circulation and its interaction with boundary layer turbulence, rather than a product of boundary layer turbulence alone. Previous datasets have lacked the necessary resolution in either time or in space to properly characterize variability on synoptic scales; this is remedied by using global satellite-retrieved cloud properties. We characterize the intraseasonal subtropical cloud variability in both hemispheres and in different seasons. In addition to cloud fraction, we examine variability of cloud optical thickness - cloud top pressure frequency distributions. Despite the large concentration of research on the variability of Northern Hemisphere (NH) regions during summer, it is noted that the largest amplitude intraseasonal variability in the NH regions occurs during local winter. The effect of intraseasonal variability on the calculation and interpretation of seasonal results is investigated. Decreases in seasonally averaged cloud cover, optical thickness and cloud top pressure from the May-through-September season to the November-through-March season are most apparent in the NH regions. Further analysis indicates that these changes are due to an increase in frequency, but a decrease in the persistence of synoptic events. In addition, changes in cloud top pressure and optical thickness characteristics from the summer to winter seasons indicate that the NH subtropics undergo a change in dynamic regime with season. This change appears in the cloud fields as a shift from the more commonly seen lower-altitude, thicker optical thickness clouds to higher-altitude, thinner clouds. The latter cloud-type is associated with the lower sea level pressure, upward vertical velocity phase of the synoptic wave. Intraseasonal changes in cloud properties in the Southern Hemisphere and NH summer are much smaller in amplitude. Although they also appear to be linked to changes in the large-scale dynamics, similarly to NH winter variations, the relationships are more ambiguous due to the small amplitudes and longer time scales. We attempt to interpret some of these relationships using the results of the Betts and Ridgway (1989) box model. However, these results cannot consistently explain the patterns when results from all regions are considered, implying that this model may not adequately explain all the processes involved in the variability.

Rozendaal, Margaret A.↗

Lower Stratospheric Temperature Differences Between Meteorological Analyses in two cold Arctic Winters and their Impact on Polar Processing Studies

A quantitative intercomparison of six meteorological analyses is presented for the cold 1999-2000 and 1995-1996 Arctic winters. The impacts of using different analyzed temperatures in calculations of polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation potential, and of different winds in idealized trajectory-based temperature histories, are substantial. The area with temperatures below a PSC formation threshold commonly varies by approximately 25% among the analyses, with differences of over 50% at some times/locations. Freie University at Berlin analyses are often colder than others at T is less than or approximately 205 K. Biases between analyses vary from year to year; in January 2000. U.K. Met Office analyses were coldest and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) analyses warmest. while NCEP analyses were usually coldest in 1995-1996 and Met Office or NCEP[National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis (REAN) warmest. European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) temperatures agreed better with other analyses in 1999-2000, after improvements in the assimilation model. than in 1995-1996. Case-studies of temperature histories show substantial differences using Met Office, NCEP, REAN and NASA Data Assimilation Office (DAO) analyses. In January 2000 (when a large cold region was centered in the polar vortex), qualitatively similar results were obtained for all analyses. However, in February 2000 (a much warmer period) and in January and February 1996 (comparably cold to January 2000 but with large cold regions near the polar vortex edge), distributions of "potential PSC lifetimes" and total time spent below a PSC formation threshold varied significantly among the analyses. Largest peaks in "PSC lifetime" distributions in January 2000 were at 4-6 and 11-14 days. while in the 1996 periods, they were at 1-3 days. Thus different meteorological conditions in comparably cold winters had a large impact on expectations for PSC formation and on the discrepancies between different meteorological analyses. Met Office. NCEP, REAN, ECMWF and DAO analyses are commonly used for trajectory calculations and in chemical transport models; the choice of which analysis to use can strongly influence the results of such studies.

Manney, Gloria L.↗

An Integrated System for Water Budget Closure Over the Pan-Tropical Land Mass: A TRMM Validation Effort

A concerted effort was undertaken this past year to analyze the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and Department of Energy (DOE) Reanalysis II tropical hydrologic cycle. The topics included in this progress report are: (1) analysis of the surface hydrologic cycle; (2) long term CO2 sensitivity simulations with NCAR's CCM3 and global recycling rates; (3) tropical atmospheric hydrologic cycle; (4) GCIP (Global Continental Scale International Project) WEBS (Water and Energy Budget Synthesis); (5) the impact of precipitation uncertainties on global water balance calculations.

Roads, J.↗

A Modeling Study of Oceanic Response to Daily and Monthly Surface Forcing

The goal of this study is to investigate the effect of high-frequency surface forcing (wind stresses and heat fluxes) on upper-ocean response. We use the reduced-gravity quasi-isopycnal ocean model by Schopf and Loughe (1995) for this study. Two experiments are performed: one with daily and the other with monthly surface forcing. The two experiments are referred to as DD and MM, respectively. The daily surface wind stress is produced from the SSM/I wind data (Atlas et al. 1991) using the drag coefficient of Large and Pond (1982). The surface latent and sensible heat fluxes are estimated using the atmospheric mixed layer model by Seager et al. (1995) with the time-varying air temperature and specific humidity from the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis (Kalnay et al. 1996). The radiation is based on climatological shortwave radiation from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) [Harrison et al. 1993] and the daily GEWEX SRB data. The ocean model domain is restricted to the Pacific Ocean with realistic land boundaries. At the southern boundary the model temperature and salinity are relaxed to the Levitus (1994) climatology. The time-mean SST distribution from MM is close to the observed SST climatology while the mean SST field from DD is about 1.5 C cooler. To identify the responsible processes, we examined the mean heat budgets and the heat balance during the first year (when the difference developed) in the two experiments. The analysis reveals that this is contributed by two factors. One is the difference in latent heat flux. The other is the difference in mixing processes. To further evaluate the responsible processes, we repeated the DD experiment by reducing the based vertical diffusion from 1e-4 to 0.5e-5. The resultant SST field becomes quite closer to the observed SST field. SST variability from the two experiments is generally similar, but the equatorial SST differences between the two experiments show interannual variations. We are investigating the possible mechanisms responsible for the different responses.

Sui, Chung-Hsiung↗

Interannual Variability in the Meridional Transport of Water Vapor

The zonal-mean meridional transport of water vapor across the globe is evaluated using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis for 1948-97. The shape of the meridional profile of the climatological mean transport closely resembles that of previous mean climate descriptions, but values tend to be notably larger than in climatologies derived from radiosonde-only-based analyses. The unprecedented length of the NCEP-NCAR dataset invites a focus on interannual variations in the zonal-mean moisture transport, and these results for northern winter are highlighted here. Although interannual variability in the transport is typically small at most latitudes, a significant ENSO signal is present, marked by a strengthening of water vapor transports over much of the winter hemisphere during warm events. Because of an increase in tropical sea surface temperatures and in the frequency of warm events relative to cold events in the latter half of the 50-yr record, this interannual signal projects onto an overall trend toward enhanced meridional moisture transports in the global hydrological cycle.

Cohen, Judah L.↗

The Evolution of Stratospheric Data Assimilation Systems

The use of model-assimilated meteorological observations for stratospheric research has become routine since the late 1980's. The first stratospheric assimilation systems were straightforward extensions of systems developed for tropospheric weather forecasting. During the 1990's systems were developed that more directly addressed the specifics of stratospheric applications. These developments include better treatment of the satellite observations and improved models that better represent the residual circulation in the assimilated data sets. This talk will review the evolution of stratospheric data assimilation and its application, especially to problems of tracer transport. The new data assimilation currently under validation at NASA will be described in some detail, and results from the validation exercise will be presented. This data assimilation system sits at the foundation of a proposed stratospheric reanalysis that covers the era of the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS).

Rood, Richard B.↗

What Controls the Arctic Lower Stratosphere Temperature?

The temperature of the Arctic lower stratosphere is critical for understanding polar ozone levels. As temperatures drop below about 195 K, polar stratospheric clouds form, which then convert HCl and ClONO2 into reactive forms that are catalysts for ozone loss reactions. Hence, the lower stratospheric temperature during the March period is a key parameter for understanding polar ozone losses. The temperature is basically understood to be a result of planetary waves which drive the polar temperature away from a cold "radiative equilibrium" state. This is demonstrated using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis calculations of the heat flux and the mean polar temperature. The temperature during the March period is fundamentally driven by the integrated impact of large scale waves moving from the troposphere to the stratosphere during the January through February period. We will further show that the recent cold years in the northern polar vortex are a result of this weakened wave driving of the stratosphere.

Newman, Paul A.↗

Use of Satellite-Derived Water Vapor Data to Investigate Northwestward Expansion of North Pacific Subtropical High During 1995 Summer: Westward Propagating Moisture Pattern

The spatial and temporal evolution of the moisture field over the subtropical northwest Pacific during the summer of 1995 is investigated using daily total precipitable water from combined SSM/I-TOVS data and pentad upper tropospheric humidity (UTH) data, in conjunction with NCEP reanalysis data. From analysis of the combined water vapor field, the westward movement of a dry airmass is observed along the 20-30 degrees N latitude zone from near the dateline to the south of Japan throughout the summer of 1995. Extended EOF analysis of total precipitable water reveals that the westward moving pattern takes place in conjunction with an expanding North Pacific subtropical high maintaining an oscillatory component exhibiting a period of some 15-25 days. A concomitant dipole-like oscillating anomalous circulation with approximately a 20-day period between the South China Sea and south of Japan appears to influence the westward expansion of the subtropical high. The analysis also suggests that the fluctuations of the North Pacific high are in response to a local Hadley-type circulation which is induced by westward-moving anomalous convection episodes along 10-20 degrees N.

Sohn, Byung-Ju↗

The Rovibrational Intensities of the (40 deg 1) and (00 deg 0) Pentad Absorption Bands of 12C16O2 Between 7284 and 7921 cm(exp-1)

Carbon dioxide is the major constituent of the atmospheres of both Mars and Venus. Correct interpretations of spectra of these atmospheres require accurate knowledge of a substantial number of absorption bands of this gas. This is especially true for Venus; many weak CO2 bands that are insignificant in the earth's atmosphere are prominent absorbers in Venus' hot, dense lower atmosphere. Yet, recent near-infrared spectra of Venus' nightside have discovered emission windows, which occur between CO2 absorption bands, at 4040-4550 cm(exp-1), 5700-5900 cm(exp-1), and several smaller ones between 7500 and 9400 cm(exp-1). This radiation is due to thermal emission from Venus' lower atmosphere, diminished by scattering and absorption within the sulfuric acid clouds on its way to space. Simulations of these data with radiative transfer models can provide improved information on the abundances of a number of constituents of the lower atmosphere (e.g. H2O, CO, HDO, HCl, HF, and OCS) and the optical properties of the clouds, whose spatial variation modulates the brightness of the emissions. However, the accuracy of these retrievals has been limited by insufficient knowledge of the opacity of some of the gas species, including CO2, at the large pathlengths and high temperatures and pressures that exist on Venus. In particular, modeling the emission spectrum did not produce a good fit for the emission window centered at 7830 cm(exp-1). In an ongoing effort to assist analyses of these Venus spectra, we have been making laboratory intensity measurements of several weak bands of CO2 which are significant absorbers in these Venus emission windows. The CO2 bands that are prominent in the 7830 cm(exp-1) region belong to the vibrational sequence 4v1+v3 and associated hot bands. Only 2 of the 5 bands of this sequence have been previously measured. Modeling Venus' emission spectrum in the 7830 cm(exp-1) region had to rely on calculated intensity values for the weak ground state band at 7921 cm-1 and the associated hot bands. Since the calculated intensities of ground state bands are known to have significant uncertainties, we decided to measure this (40 deg 1)I (left arrow) (00 deg 0) band with the Ames 25 meter multiple reflection absorption cell and Fourier transform spectrometer. We also measured the (40 deg 1) (sub IV) (left arrow) (00 deg 0) band at 7460 cm(exp-1), which also had not been previously measured. These measurements are reported in this article, and we also give our reanalysis of the prior measurements of the (40 deg 1) (sub III) (left arrow) (00 deg 0) bands. These measurements provide the basis for improving calculated intensities for related hot bands as well as simulations of Venus' spectrum.

Giver, L. P.↗

A Program To Detect and Characterize Extra-Solar Giant Planets

This grant report highlights activity in the following areas: (1) Improvement in Precise Radial Velocity (PRV) analysis code; (2) Reanalysis of previous data; (3) Improvements to the AFOE (Advanced Fiber Optic Echelle) spectrograph; (4) Development of PRV capabilities for the Hectochelle; (5) Extra-solar planet studies; (6) Longer-term plans for the AFOE; (7) Completion and publication of the analysis of the transiting gas-giant planet HD 209458b.

Noyes, Robert W.↗

Variability and Predictability of Land-Atmosphere Interactions: Observational and Modeling Studies

The overall goal of this project is to increase our understanding of seasonal to interannual variability and predictability of atmosphere-land interactions. The project objectives are to: 1. Document the low frequency variability in land surface features and associated water and energy cycles from general circulation models (GCMs), observations and reanalysis products. 2. Determine what relatively wet and dry years have in common on a region-by-region basis and then examine the physical mechanisms that may account for a significant portion of the variability. 3. Develop GCM experiments to examine the hypothesis that better knowledge of the land surface enhances long range predictability. This investigation is aimed at evaluating and predicting seasonal to interannual variability for selected regions emphasizing the role of land-atmosphere interactions. Of particular interest are the relationships between large, regional and local scales and how they interact to account for seasonal and interannual variability, including extreme events such as droughts and floods. North and South America, including the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Continental International Project (GEWEX GCIP), MacKenzie, and LBA basins, are currently being emphasized. We plan to ultimately generalize and synthesize to other land regions across the globe, especially those pertinent to other GEWEX projects.

Roads, John↗

Gravitational Signal of Mass Redistribution Due to Interannual Meteorological Oscillations in Atmosphere and Ocean

Interannual meteorological oscillations (ENSO, QBO, NAO, etc.) have demonstrable influences on Earth's rotation. Here we study their effects on global gravitational field, whose temporal variations are being studied using SLR (satellite laser ranging) data and in anticipation of the new space mission GRACE. The meteorological oscillation modes are identified using the EOF (empirical orthogonal function)/PC (principal component) decomposition of surface fields (in which we take care of issues associated with the area-weighting and non-zero mean). We examine two fields, one for the global surface pressure field for the atmosphere obtained from the NCEP reanalysis (for the past 40 years), one for the surface topography field for the ocean from the Topex/Poseidon (T/P) data (for the past 8 years). We use monthly maps, and remove the mean-monthly ("climatology") values from each grid point, hence focusing only on non-seasonal signals. The T/P data were first subject to a steric correction where the steric contribution to the ocean surface topography was removed according to output of the numerical POCM model. The respective atmospheric and oceanic contributions to the gravitational variation, in terms of harmonic Stokes coefficients, are then combined mode-by-mode. Since the T/P data already contain the oceanic response to overlying atmospheric pressure, no regards to the inverted-barometer behavior for the ocean need be considered. Results for the lowest-degree Stokes coefficients can then be compared with space geodetic observations including the Earth's rotation and the SLR data mentioned above, to identify the importance of each meteorological oscillations in gravitational variation signals.

Chao, B. F.↗

Are Stronger North-Atlantic Southwesterlies the Forcing to the Late-Winter Warming in Europe?

We examine a possible mechanism leading to late-winter warming and thus to an early spring in Europe. From the NCEP Reanalysis, we extract for the years 1948-1999 ocean-surface winds over the eastern North Atlantic, and air temperatures at the surface, T(sub s), and at the 500 mb level, T(sub 500), in late-winter and spring. T(sub s) is extracted at six European locations, all at 50.5 N, ranging in longitude from 1.9 E (northeastern France) to 26.2 E (Ukraine). To quantify the advection of maritime air into Europe, we evaluate for 3-pentad groups the Index I(sub na) of the southwesterlies at 45 N; 20 W: I(sub na) is the average wind speed at this point if the direction is from the quadrant 180-270 deg (when the direction is different, the contribution counts as zero). In late winter correlations C(sub it) between the Index I(sub na) and the temperature T(sub s) are substantial, up to the 0.6 level, in western Europe (but weaker correlations for Poland and Ukraine). C(sub it) drops sharply by mid-March, taking occasionally negative values subsequently. This drop in C(sub it) indicates that maritime air advection is no longer associated closely with the surface-air warming, the role of immolation becomes important, and thus the drop in C(sub it) marks the arrival of spring. Correlations C(sub i delta) between I(sub na) and our lapse-rate parameter delta, the difference between T(sub s) and T(sub 500), indicate that the flow of warm maritime-air from the North Atlantic into this 'corridor' at 50.5 N is predominantly at low tropospheric level. By computing the best linear fit to I(sub na) and T(sub s), the trends for the period 1948-1999 are evaluated. The trends are appreciable in the second half of February and the first half of March. Our 3-pentad analysis points to the interval from mid-February to mid-March as the end-of-winter period in which the southwesterlies over the eastern North Atlantic become stronger and the surface-air temperatures in Europe rise markedly, the lapse rate becomes steeper, and concurrently the longitudinal temperature gradient between the Somme (France) and the Oder (Germany/Poland border) is reduced by 0.8 C, that is, by 20% of its 1948 value. Our thesis, that the observed late-winter warming and the corollary advancement of spring in Europe resulted at least in part from stronger southwesterlies over the North Atlantic, merits further investigations.

Otterman, J.↗

Variability of Winter Air Temperature in Mid-Latitude Europe

The aim of this paper is to report extreme winter/early-spring air temperature (hereinafter temperature) anomalies in mid-latitude Europe, and to discuss the underlying forcing to these interannual fluctuations. Warm advection from the North Atlantic in late winter controls the surface-air temperature, as indicated by the substantial correlation between the speed of the surface southwesterlies over the eastern North Atlantic (quantified by a specific Index Ina) and the 2-meter level air temperatures (hereinafter Ts) over Europe, 45-60 deg N, in winter. In mid-March and subsequently, the correlation drops drastically (quite often it is negative). This change in the relationship between Ts and Ina marks a transition in the control of the surface-air temperature: absorption of insolation replaces the warm advection as the dominant control. This forcing by maritime-air advection in winter was demonstrated in a previous publication, and is re-examined here in conjunction with extreme fluctuations of temperatures in Europe. We analyze here the interannual variability at its extreme by comparing warm-winter/early-spring of 1989/90 with the opposite scenario in 1995/96. For these two December-to-March periods the differences in the monthly mean temperature in Warsaw and Torun, Poland, range above 10 C. Short-term (shorter than a month) fluctuations of the temperature are likewise very strong. We conduct pentad-by-pentad analysis of the surface-maximum air temperature (hereinafter Tmax), in a selected location, examining the dependence on Ina. The increased cloudiness and higher amounts of total precipitable water, corollary effects to the warm low-level advection. in the 1989/90 winter, enhance the positive temperature anomalies. The analysis of the ocean surface winds is based on the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) dataset; ascent rates, and over land wind data are from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF); maps of 2-m temperature, cloud cover and precipitable water are from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis.

Otterman, J.↗

FIP, FIT or MAD? Analysis of High Signal-to-Noise ASCA Spectra of Coronal Stars

ASCA (Advanced Satellite for Cosmology and Astrophysics) and EUVE (Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer) spectra of active late-type stars imply that Fe and other medium-Z elements may be 2-10 times less abundant in the coronae of these stars than in their photo-spheres (the MAD effect). These deficiencies may be related to the solar FIP (First Ionization Potential) effect, in which Fe and other low First Ionization Potential elements appear enriched in the solar corona over their photospheric values. The FIP effect is time variable. As part of this proposal, the K0-2 III star, 29 Draconis, was observed in X rays with the ASCA spacecraft in order to measure the coronal abundances of this star at three different stellar longitudes over its 31-day rotation cycle. The goal of the observations was to learn whether coronal abundances, and hence coronal magnetic structure, vary across the surface of 29 Draconis in phase with the motion of dark star-spots across its disk. A second task included in this project was a systematic reanalysis of 18-20 deep exposures of active coronal stars, which were extracted from the ASCA public archives. New thermal models were computed for each spectrum in order to derive coronal metal abundances for each star. The goal of this survey was to search for possible trends in coronal abundance with various stellar parameters such as rotation, chromospheric activity levels at ultraviolet and optical wavelengths, or evolutionary stage.

Simon, Theodore↗

Interaction Between Surface Heat Budgets, Sea Surface Temperature and Deep Convection in the Tropical Western Pacific

The surface heat budgets, sea surface temperature (SST), clouds and winds in the tropical western Pacific are analyzed and compared for the periods April-June 1998 and 1999. The spring of 1998 is in the later phase of a strong El Nino, whereas the spring of 1999 is in a period of a La Nina. The surface shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) radiative fluxes are retrieved from Japanese Geostationary Meteorological Satellite radiance measurements, while the surface turbulent fluxes (latent and sensible heat) are derived from SSM/I-Inferred surface air humidity and winds. The SST and sea-air temperature differences are taken from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. Deep convection is inferred from the outgoing longwave radiation of NOAA's polar-orbiting satellites. The longitudinal shift in maximum SST, deep convection and winds during El Nino and La Nina have a large impact on the spatial distribution of surface heating. Changes in clouds between these two periods have a large impact on the monthly-mean radiative heating, exceeding 60 W m(exp -2) over large oceanic regions. Similarly, the differences in wind speeds and SST have a large impact on the latent cooling, exceeding 40 W m(exp -2) over large oceanic areas. However, the maximum impacts on radiative and latent heat fluxes occur in different regions. The regions of maximum impact on radiative fluxes coincide with the regions of maximum change in clouds, whereas regions of maximum impact on turbulent heat fluxes coincide with the regions of maximum change in trade winds. The time-evolution of SST in relation to that of surface heat fluxes and winds are investigated and compared between the two El Nino and La Nina periods. In regions where wind speeds (or wind stresses) are large, the change in SST agrees well with the change in the net surface heating, indicating a deep ocean mixed layer associated with strong trade winds. On the other hand, in regions where radiative fluxes are large, the change in SST does not agree well with the change in the net surface heating, indicating the importance of solar radiation penetrating through the bottom of the shadow ocean mixed layer.

Chou, Shu-Hsien↗

Tropical Convection's Roles in Tropical Tropopause Cirrus

Remote sensing observations reveal the frequent occurrence of tropopause cirrus, thin cirrus layers located near the tropical cold-point tropopause. Here, we present a theory in which tropical convection plays several important roles in tropopause cirrus formation. First, tropical convection is the primary means by which the moisture required for tropopause cirrus formation is transported into the upper troposphere. However, previous studies suggest that this convection rarely penetrates to the altitudes at which tropopause cirrus layers are observed, suggesting that additional vertical moisture transport is required to explain tropopause cirrus formation. We propose a mechanism for explaining this transport in which tropical convection plays the key role. According to this hypothesis, the transport is accomplished by meridional circulations that develop within the tropopause transition layer (TTL) in response to momentum transport by Rossby waves generated by tropical convection. Results of a series of global scale model runs designed to test this hypothesis will be presented. In addition, reanalyses vertical velocity data will be examined for evidence of the expected correlation between large-scale rising motion within the TTL and tropical convection. Once moisture is present near the cold-point tropopause, large-scale cooling is required to initiate tropopause cirrus formation. One source of this cooling is stratospheric tropical waves induced by tropical convection, as we will show using a time series of radiosonde temperature data superimposed with data on cloud occurrence from the DOE ARM Nauru99 field experiment. Observations of the global characteristics of these waves from a longer time series of reanalysis data will also be presented.

Boehm, Matthew T.↗

Global Surface Solar Energy Anomalies Including El Nino and La Nina Years

This paper synthesizes past events in an attempt to define the general magnitude, duration, and location of large surface solar anomalies over the globe. Surface solar energy values are mostly a function of solar zenith angle, cloud conditions, column atmospheric water vapor, aerosols, and surface albedo. For this study, solar and meteorological parameters for the 10-yr period July 1983 through June 1993 are used. These data were generated as part of the Release 3 Surface meteorology and Solar Energy (SSE) activity under the NASA Earth Science Enterprise (ESE) effort. Release 3 SSE uses upgraded input data and methods relative to previous releases. Cloud conditions are based on recent NASA Version-D International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) global satellite radiation and cloud data. Meteorological inputs are from Version-I Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) reanalysis data that uses both weather station and satellite information. Aerosol transmission for different regions and seasons are for an 'average' year based on historic solar energy data from over 1000 ground sites courtesy of Natural Resources Canada (NRCan). These data are input to a new Langley Parameterized Shortwave Algorithm (LPSA) that calculates surface albedo and surface solar energy. That algorithm is an upgraded version of the 'Staylor' algorithm. Calculations are performed for a 280X280 km equal-area grid system over the globe based on 3-hourly input data. A bi-linear interpolation process is used to estimate data output values on a 1 X 1 degree grid system over the globe. Maximum anomalies are examined relative to El Nino and La Nina events in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Maximum year-to-year anomalies over the globe are provided for a 10-year period. The data may assist in the design of systems with increased reliability. It may also allow for better planning for emergency assistance during some atypical events.

Whitlock, C. H.↗