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DOE OSTI2023

DOE Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) 2023 Project Peer Review: WBS 2.4.1.100 Bench Scale Research & Development

Bench Scale Integration develops and optimizes fermentation processes to produce bio-based fuels and chemicals for commercial scale-up. The project uses fermentation science to achieve high titers and production rates by, for example, manipulating how the microorganisms are fed biomass sugars and nutrients, modifying fermentation conditions (pH, temperature, aeration) or developing online control strategies for better fermentation operations and high titer, rates, and yield (TRY). For this period of performance, we continued our development of a commercial-ready 2,3-butanediol (BDO) fermentation from biomass sugars utilizing NREL's proprietary Zymomonas mobilis microorganism. The engineered Z. mobilis can use all the main sugars in corn stover biomass, which are glucose, xylose, and arabinose. BDO is a versatile, low-carbon chemical which can be catalytically upgraded to a variety of hydrocarbon fuels and chemicals. The project had three goals during this review period; evaluate the technical feasibility of using whole slurry pretreated corn stover to achieve the techno-economic analysis (TEA) performance goals, continue optimizing a liquor-based fed-batch fermentation process for high titer, and develop strategies to enable scale-up. After evaluating different iterations of a whole slurry fermentation that did not meet the TEA goals, a Go/No-Go decision was made to pivot to liquor-only with new TEA performance targets, the main one being 140 g/L titer. We successfully met this goal, producing 141 g/L BDO at 1 g/L-hr productivity and 84% process yield. This titer and productivity attracted industrial interest to scale the fermentation resulting in a Technology Commercialization Fund project award in 2022. We used an NREL developed near-infra red (NIR) spectroscopy method for rapid analysis which allowed for changes to aeration levels and sugar feeding during the fermentation to maximize BDO production. The NIR analysis can be done using a hand-held spectrometer, essentially taking the analysis on to the plant floor during scale-up and preliminary work shows the feasibility of using an online probe for continuous monitoring and control. The other scale-up tool is mapping oxygen transfer coefficient (kLa) and oxygen transfer rate (OTR) in various vessels to find conditions that match the optimized 500 mL vessels. Showing a correlation to the mapping work, which is done with water and a dissolved oxygen probe, can reduce the risk of failed fermentations during scale-up. Our end-of-project goal is to meet the design target BDO titer (140-150 g/L) from DMR corn stover liquor at 1000L or larger scale to demonstrate BDO process design case and transfer the technology to industrial fermentation stakeholders for commercialization.

2 3-butanediol↗
DOE OSTI2017

Progress Updates for the Hanford Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant Project - 17275

The Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) Project is vital to the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) mission to cleanup radioactive waste at the Hanford Site, located in southeastern Washington State. The overall WTP Project objective is to design, build, and commission the facilities and systems that will treat and immobilize approximately 211 983 m{sup 3} (56 million gallons) of radioactive waste stored in Hanford's 177 underground storage tanks. The combination of technologies in the WTP makes it a first-of-a-kind facility at a scale larger than ever built for radioactive waste processing. In 2012, DOE suspended production work on the WTP's Pretreatment (PT) Facility and to a lesser degree the High-Level Waste (HLW) Facility because of unresolved technical issues associated with those facilities. DOE is proceeding with its approach to complete the WTP Project in phases, which includes the following principal actions: - Completing construction of the Low-Activity Waste (LAW) Facility, Balance of Facilities (BOF), and Analytical Laboratory (LAB), collectively known as LBL; - Implementing a direct-feed low-activity waste (DFLAW) process to treat low-activity waste independent of the PT Facility; - Completing the design and construction of the HLW Facility; - Resolving the technical issues associated with the PT Facility; - Completing all WTP facilities to enable integrated WTP operations. In March 2016, a federal judge amended the 2010 Consent Decree, establishing revised milestone dates for the Hanford WTP that generally align with DOE's plans for completing the WTP facilities in sequence. In December 2016, DOE executed a contract modification and approved a change to the project's performance baseline to complete the LBL facilities and incorporate modifications needed to accommodate direct feed of low-activity waste to the LAW Facility. The contract modification and revised performance baseline support completion of hot commissioning of the WTP facilities needed for DFLAW operations no later than December 31, 2023. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2017

The Port Hope Areas Initiative's Port Granby Project: Radiation Protection Program - 17446

The Port Granby Project is large remediation project currently underway. A comprehensive and effective radiation protection program has been developed and implemented for the Port Granby Project. The potential radiation hazards associated with this project include: external (gamma) radiation, radon, inhalation, contamination and ingestion. Processes to address each of these potential hazards are identified. Measures of the effectiveness of the radiation protection program are also included. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2016

Prioritizing and Managing Technology Needs to Meet River Protection Project Mission Objectives - 16462

Over 56 million gallons of radioactive waste are stored in 177 large underground tanks at the Hanford Site, located in southeastern Washington State. This nuclear waste resulted from plutonium production for the nation's nuclear defense program. The River Protection Project (RPP) mission is to: - Safeguard and safely manage waste stored in the Hanford tanks, - Treat the waste using the Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP), - Ensure safe disposition of the waste to protect the Columbia River and the environment. Each aspect of the mission requires some application of technology in order to meet the mission objectives. The RPP Technology Roadmap document presents a comprehensive, integrated assessment of the technology-related advances needed to ensure successful completion of the Hanford tank waste cleanup mission. This paper describes the development of the RPP Technology Roadmap, summarizes its content, describes integration and collaboration with the Department of Energy's national laboratories to support the work identified, and defines how priorities were identified to ensure near-term RPP mission commitments can be accomplished while preserving the longer term technology development elements necessary for mission completion. The Challenge - Managing a wide variety of technology needs that involve multiple organizations, contractors, and national laboratories presents additional challenges when funding constraints are factored in. A process was needed to ensure the technology needs supporting near term mission priorities were appropriately identified, prioritized, and supported through the fiscal year planning process. Additionally, the national laboratory resources necessary to support many of the technologies require coordination to ensure the most appropriate resources are applied at the appropriate level without duplication or contradiction of effort. The Solution - The RPP Technology Roadmap was developed with the primary purposes to: - Identify technology related items needed to support or enhance the River Protection Project (RPP) mission, - Prioritize technology needs to support fiscal year planning processes, - Organize National laboratory support of the RPP mission and communicate needs to the participating contractors. The Technology Roadmap is consistent with Department of Energy (DOE) Hanford mission priorities and is also in alignment with other Hanford Site technical initiatives and policy and planning documents. The Technology Roadmap highlights the current estimated technology needs and identifies where planning shortfalls exist and where national laboratory participation is needed to support mission success. This information assists fiscal year planning and national laboratory contracting processes to ensure that technology needs are supported. In addition to supporting the RPP baseline mission, the Technology Roadmap provides a basis for strategic planning by identifying opportunities to use technology solutions to enhance mission efficiency. This waste management paper describes the innovative and collaborative processes used to develop, validate, and communicate the results so the project owners and the national laboratories can most effectively plan work scope and resources. A discussion of the following processes is included: - Technology needs and task owner identification, - Functional area grouping and area lead identification, - Needs prioritization, - High priority needs ranking (including validation), - Results compilation and planning gap identification, - Results presentation by project and functional area, - National laboratory coordination and collaboration. Application - The process used to develop the RPP technology roadmap is applicable to any site where multiple national laboratories and contractors are involved in identifying and implementing technology based solutions. This process is also applicable to the DOE HQ role to provide prioritization and coordination of the nationwide technology development activities. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2018

Progress Updates for the Hanford Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant Project - 18327

The Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) Project is vital to the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) mission to cleanup radioactive waste at the Hanford Site, located in southeastern Washington State. The overall WTP Project objective is to design, build, and commission the facilities and systems that will treat and immobilize approximately 56 million gallons of radioactive waste stored in Hanford's 177 underground storage tanks. The combination of technologies in the WTP makes it a first-of-a-kind facility at a scale larger than ever, built for radioactive waste processing. DOE is proceeding with its approach to complete the WTP Project in phases, which includes the following principal actions: - Completing construction of the Low-Activity Waste (LAW) Facility, Balance of Facilities (BOF), and Analytical Laboratory (LAB) (collectively referred to as LBL); - Implementing a direct-feed low-activity waste (DFLAW) process to treat low-activity waste independent of the Pretreatment (PT) Facility; - Resolving the technical issues associated with primarily the PT Facility; - Completing the design and construction of the High-Level Waste (HLW) and PT facilities to enable integrated WTP operations. In March 2016, a federal judge amended the 2010 Consent Decree 1 completion milestones for the Hanford WTP, which generally aligns with DOE's plans for completing the WTP facilities in sequence: - Complete LAW Facility hot commissioning: December 31, 2023; - Complete HLW Facility hot commissioning: December 31, 2033; - Complete PT Facility hot commissioning: December 31, 2033; - Achieve initial plant operations for the WTP: December 31, 2036. Having established milestones for completing the WTP facilities has enabled DOE to formally implement its plans for completing the WTP facilities in sequence, starting with the LAW Facility. In December 2016, DOE executed a contract modification and approved a change to the project's performance baseline to complete the LBL facilities and incorporate modifications needed to allow direct feed of low-activity waste to the LAW Facility. Significant progress has been made toward completing the design, construction, and planning for commissioning of the facilities needed to enable the DFLAW operations to commence as early as January 2022. In 2012, DOE partially suspended production work on the WTP's PT Facility and to a lesser degree the HLW Facility because of unresolved technical issues associated with those facilities. In September 2017, DOE acknowledged the WTP contractor had met all the criteria for full resumption of engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) activities for the HLW Facility. By December 2017, DOE had completed the actions needed to resolve the six of the eight primary technical issues associated with the PT Facility, with the remaining two issues expected to be resolved in the first quarter of 2018. Although significant progress has been made to prepare for resuming production activities for the HLW and PT facilities, DOE has made the decision to constrain EPC work on those facilities in the near term based on DOE's higher priority of completing the WTP facilities needed to begin DFLAW operations. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2019

Port Hope Are Initiative Port Granby Project - Water Management in Extreme Weather Conditions - 19257

The Port Granby Project is part of the Port Hope Area Initiative (PHAI) through which Canadian Nuclear Laboratory (CNL) is managing long-term historic low level radioactive waste (LLRW) resulting from 60 years of uranium and radium processing operations in the urban setting of Port Hope, Ontario. Port Granby remediation scope includes 1) constructing a new, secure long-term waste management facility (LTWMF) and supporting infrastructure, and 2) excavating and relocating LLRW and marginally contaminated soil from the Port Granby Waste Management Facility (PGWMF), which accepted waste until the 1980's, to the newly constructed LTWMF. This paper provides an overview of the challenges of water management (control of storm and groundwater at the LTWMF and PGWMF) on a large-scale construction project with changing and unpredictable weather patterns. Consistent with increased observations of extreme weather events, over two consecutive construction seasons, weather changed from one of the driest on record (high temperatures, dry conditions and strong wind) to one of the wettest on record (short duration high-intensity rainfall that flooded the LTWMF, excavations and on-site PGWMF and LTWMF retention ponds). This paper describes the collaborative approach among Wood (Constructor), AECOM (Engineer of Record), and CNL to adjust to extremes in weather to control dust and excessive water during construction. The summer of 2016, one of the driest summers on record in southern Ontario, was followed by one of the wettest in 2017. In 2016, the project team used water from the uncontaminated on-site storm water ponds, applied a polymer product for dust control across the site to augment water applications, obtained a Permit to Take Water from the provincial government to pump water from Lake Ontario, procured large tanks for storage of Lake Ontario water to meet peak demand, and retained additional water trucks/operators for day to day site operations. In stark contrast, to accommodate heavy rains in 2017 the project team installed ∼6 million liter aboveground storage tanks with secondary containment for contaminated water storage; procured 100+ mobile water storage tanks to supplement the on-site storage, utilized LTWMF cells sumps, excavations and retention ponds to store and manage onsite water; and adjusted additional staff resources (more staff and longer shifts) during anticipated periods of high-intensity rainfall, at times managing water around the clock. Recognizing the need to minimize the release of contaminated soil and water from the construction site at all times, these efforts illustrate the importance of anticipating and reacting to extreme weather events on a more regular basis. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2017

BWR modernization project: installation of a new digital feedwater control system - 295

A European BWR plant carried out a relevant and pioneering modernization project regarding the Feedwater and Feed Pump Turbine Control System, replacing the legacy analogic control with the new General Electric MarkVIe digital system. This digital instrumentation and control modernization, motivated by obsolescence, had a great impact on the main control room and on the plant operation. Tecnatom collaborated with the nuclear power plant in the project performing the following activities: early installation of the system in the full scope and classroom simulators, Human Factors Engineering (HFE) Verification and Validation (V and V), Simulation Assisted Engineering (SAE), design and implementation of cyber secure communication with the Plant Process Computer (PPC), operating procedures modification and plant operators training. Those activities contributed to the success of the project that was completed during the refueling outage as planned. Scheduling HFE verification before the design freeze allowed the plant to modify the Human Machine Interface (HMI) to comply with the standards and increase safety without overcharging the project. SAE resulted in the reduction of costs and time during the system commissioning through the detection of discrepancies and improvements in the control, covering different plant scenarios. All the activities carried out in the simulators before the implementation of the system in the plant contributed to validate it and to build confidence in the new control among the plant personnel. New digital system communication interfaces with the PPC saved cable laying works and allowed future expansions. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2016

An IRSN Project For Experimental Data Acquisition In The Frame Of Criticality Safety And Reactor Physics

In the frame of its research missions for criticality safety assessment support, IRSN performed various experimental programs related to criticality safety in the CEA Valduc facilities. Following the shutdown of these facilities and the cancellation of the MIDAS project, which aimed at refurbishing these facilities, IRSN has initiated a new project named PRINCESS for 'Project for IRSN Neutron physics and Criticality Experimental data Supporting Safety'. PRINCESS is the practical implementation of IRSN's international partnership strategy to build relations with organizations that are equipped with experimental facilities for criticality safety and reactor physics research. The aim is to analyze experimental data from programs already performed and to conduct joint research programs on topics of interest of both parties. This paper presents an overview of the status of the PRINCESS project. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Best practices for documenting a scientific Python project

Documentation is a crucial component of software development that helps users with installation and usage of the software. Documentation also helps onboard new developers to a software project with contributing guidelines and API information. The INTERSECT project is an open federated hardware/software library to facilitate the development of au- tonomous laboratories. A documentation strategy using Sphinx has been utilized to help developers contribute to source code and to help users understand the INTERSECT Python interface. Docstrings as well as reStructuredText files are used by Sphinx to automatically compile HTML and PDF files which can be hosted online as API documentation and user guides. The resulting documentation website is automatically built and deployed using GitLab runners to create Docker containers with NGINX servers. The approach discussed in this paper to automatically deploy documentation for a Python project can improve the user and developer experience for many scientific projects.

Wiggins, Gavin↗
DOE OSTI2024

AquaPV: Regulatory and Environmental Considerations for Floating Photovoltaic Projects Located on Federally Controlled Reservoirs in the United States

To meet the nation's decarbonization goals, the U.S. Department of Energy's Solar Futures study forecasts that installed solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity must increase nearly tenfold, from 80 gigawatts (GW) in 2020 to approximately 760 GW cumulative installed capacity by 2035. Ground-mounted PV is expected to dominate future solar deployment and will require more than 3.5 million acres of land to meet annual demand projections (of nearly 45 GW) by 2030. However, various competing demands for land (e.g., agricultural production, conservation) and high land acquisition costs in specific locations could be challenges to meeting future PV demand solely with ground-mounted PV deployment. Floating photovoltaics (FPV) may be an alternative in locations where ground-mounted PV is not feasible and aid in reaching the nation's PV deployment and decarbonization goals. FPV is a newer siting approach in which a PV array is affixed to a floating apparatus and sited on a water body like a reservoir behind a dam. FPV systems may be stand-alone or co-located at new or existing hydroelectric facilities or pumped storage hydropower (PSH) facility reservoirs. Co-located FPV systems may or may not be operationally paired and work in tandem with the hydroelectric or PSH facility. This report provides novel analysis to understand the opportunities and challenges associated with developing stand-alone and co-located FPV projects on reservoirs in the United States. Specifically, the report explores potential environmental and energy benefits and environmental impacts associated with the siting, construction, and operation of FPV projects. The report also identifies and analyzes U.S. federal- and state-issued permits and authorizations required by federal laws to understand the licensing pathways and regulatory requirements for FPV projects sited on reservoirs licensed by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and on powered and non-powered reservoirs owned by the Bureau of Reclamation or U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

AquaPV: Regulatory and Environmental Considerations for Floating Photovoltaic Projects Located on Federally Controlled Reservoirs in the United States

To meet the nation's decarbonization goals, the U.S. Department of Energy's Solar Futures study forecasts that installed solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity must increase nearly tenfold, from 80 gigawatts (GW) in 2020 to approximately 760 GW cumulative installed capacity by 2035. Ground-mounted PV is expected to dominate future solar deployment and will require more than 3.5 million acres of land to meet annual demand projections (of nearly 45 GW) by 2030. However, various competing demands for land (e.g., agricultural production, conservation) and high land acquisition costs in specific locations could be challenges to meeting future PV demand solely with ground-mounted PV deployment. Floating photovoltaics (FPV) may be an alternative in locations where ground-mounted PV is not feasible and aid in reaching the nation's PV deployment and decarbonization goals. FPV is a newer siting approach in which a PV array is affixed to a floating apparatus and sited on a water body like a reservoir behind a dam. FPV systems may be stand-alone or co-located at new or existing hydroelectric facilities or pumped storage hydropower (PSH) facility reservoirs. Co-located FPV systems may or may not be operationally paired and work in tandem with the hydroelectric or PSH facility. This report provides novel analysis to understand the opportunities and challenges associated with developing stand-alone and co-located FPV projects on reservoirs in the United States. Specifically, the report explores potential environmental and energy benefits and environmental impacts associated with the siting, construction, and operation of FPV projects. The report also identifies and analyzes U.S. federal- and state-issued permits and authorizations required by federal laws to understand the licensing pathways and regulatory requirements for FPV projects sited on reservoirs licensed by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and on powered and non-powered reservoirs owned by the Bureau of Reclamation or U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2018

The Bermuda Triangle: The Pragmatics, Policies, and Principles for Data Sharing in the History of the Human Genome Project

The Bermuda Principles for DNA sequence data sharing are an enduring legacy of the Human Genome Project (HGP). They were adopted by the HGP at a strategy meeting in Bermuda in February of 1996 and implemented in formal policies by early 1998, mandating daily release of HGP-funded DNA sequences into the public domain. The idea of daily sharing, we argue, emanated directly from strategies for large, goal-directed molecular biology projects first tested within the “community” of C. elegans researchers, and were introduced and defended for the HGP by the nematode biologists John Sulston and Robert Waterston. In the C. elegans community, and subsequently in the HGP, daily sharing served the pragmatic goals of quality control and project coordination. Yet in the HGP human genome, we also argue, the Bermuda Principles addressed concerns about gene patents impeding scientific advancement, and were aspirational and flexible in implementation and justification. They endured as an archetype for how rapid data sharing could be realized and rationalized, and permitted adaptation to the needs of various scientific communities. Yet in addition to the support of Sulston and Waterston, their adoption also depended on the clout of administrators at the US National Institutes of Health (NIH) and the UK nonprofit charity the Wellcome Trust, which together funded 90% of the HGP human sequencing effort. The other nations wishing to remain in the HGP consortium had to accommodate to the Bermuda Principles, requiring exceptions from incompatible existing or pending data access policies for publicly funded research in Germany, Japan, and France. We begin this story in 1963, with the biologist Sydney Brenner’s proposal for a nematode research program at the Laboratory of Molecular Biology (LMB) at the University of Cambridge. We continue through 2003, with the completion of the HGP human reference genome, and conclude with observations about policy and the historiography of molecular biology.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Fort Mojave Indian Tribe Aha Macav Power Service Renewable Energy Project

Aha Macav Power Service (AMPS), on behalf of the Fort Mojave Indian Tribe received a Department of Energy Solar grant. Partnering with Stockbridge Energy Group and the Department of Energy, AMPS was able to construct, install, test and successfully put into operation a 2.3 MW solar field. As provided in the solar data, this project has helped to offset the cost of open market purchase power needed to meet the needs of the Tribe. The estimated value of the solar energy produced in FY2021 currently is more than $294,000. Eventual expansion of the solar project is projected to create future energy independence for the Fort Mojave Indian Tribe.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Identifying and Estimating Project Development Costs [Slides]

This presentation focuses on renewable energy project development and planning and highlights common project costs at each stage of a project's lifecycle. The presentation was produced as part of a series of trainings for awardees of the Energizing Rural Communities prize.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS2004

The ALTEA/ALTEINO projects: studying functional effects of microgravity and cosmic radiation

The ALTEA project investigates the risks of functional brain damage induced by particle radiation in space. A modular facility (the ALTEA facility) is being implemented and will be operated in the International Space Station (ISS) to record electrophysiological and behavioral descriptors of brain function and to monitor their time dynamics and correlation with particles and space environment. The focus of the program will be on abnormal visual perceptions (often reported as "light flashes" by astronauts) and the impact on retinal and brain visual structures of particle in microgravity conditions. The facility will be made available to the international scientific community for human neurophysiological, electrophysiological and psychophysics experiments, studies on particle fluxes, and dosimetry. A precursor of ALTEA (the 'Alteino' project) helps set the experimental baseline for the ALTEA experiments, while providing novel information on the radiation environment onboard the ISS and on the brain electrophysiology of the astronauts during orbital flights. Alteino was flown to the ISS on the Soyuz TM34 as part of mission Marco Polo. Controlled ground experiments using mice and accelerator beams complete the experimental strategy of ALTEA. We present here the status of progress of the ALTEA project and preliminary results of the Alteino study on brain dynamics, particle fluxes and abnormal visual perceptions. c2004 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

manned↗
NASA NTRS2003

Preparing project managers for faster-better-cheaper robotic planetary missions

The authors have developed and implemented a week-long workshop for Jet Propulsion Laboratory Project Managers, designed around the development phases of the JPL Project Life Cycle. The workshop emphasizes the specific activities and deliverables that pertain to JPL managers of NASA robotic space exploration and instrument development projects.

project manager workshop project management educat↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Observed and Projected Changes of Global Monsoons: Current Status and Future Perspectives

The global monsoon system, encompassing the Asian-Australian, African, and American monsoons, sustains two-thirds of the world’s population by regulating water resources and agriculture. Monsoon anomalies pose severe risks, including floods and droughts. Recent research associated with the implementation of the Global Monsoons Model Intercomparison Project under the umbrella of CMIP6 has advanced our understanding of its historical variability and driving mechanisms. Observational data reveal a 20th-century shift: increased rainfall pre-1950s, followed by aridification and partial recovery post-1980s, driven by both internal variability (e.g., Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) and external forcings (greenhouse gases, aerosols), while ENSO drives interannual variability through ocean-atmosphere interactions. Future projections under greenhouse forcing suggest long-term monsoon intensification, though regional disparities and model uncertainties persist. Models indicate robust trends but struggle to quantify extremes, where thermodynamic effects (warming-induced moisture rise) uniformly boost heavy rainfall, while dynamical shifts (circulation changes) create spatial heterogeneity. Volcanic eruptions and proposed solar radiation modification (SRM) further complicate predictions: tropical eruptions suppress monsoons, whereas high-latitude events alter cross-equatorial flows, highlighting unresolved feedbacks. The emergent constraint approach is booming in terms of correcting future projections and reducing uncertainty with respect to the global monsoons. Critical challenges remain. Model biases and sparse 20th-century observational data hinder accurate attribution. The interplay between natural variability and anthropogenic forcings, along with nonlinear extreme precipitation risks under warming, demands deeper mechanistic insights. Additionally, SRM’s regional impacts and hemispheric monsoon interactions require systematic evaluation. Addressing these gaps necessitates enhanced observational networks, refined climate models, and interdisciplinary efforts to disentangle multiscale drivers, ultimately improving resilience strategies for monsoon-dependent regions.

climate extreme events↗