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Current Practices in Distribution Utility Resilience Planning for Winter Storms

This report is part of a series of hazard-focused case studies examining common practices in electric utility resilience planning. We use standard terminology defining resilience as the ability to anticipate, withstand, absorb, and recover from hazards that cause long duration outages. We distinguish between reliability and resilience using Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) 1366-2022, which defines major events as an event that exceeds reasonable design and/or operational limits of the electric power system. Resilience planning is focused on major event days and reliability planning is focused on nonmajor event days. Utility resilience plans are assessed according to common resilience components identified in existing resilience frameworks. The focus of this report is on winter storms in which the primary hazards are heavy snowfall, freezing rain, ice, extreme cold, severe wind, and flooding. These hazards can also contribute to generation shortages, resulting in bulk power system impacts that have consequences for the distribution system, such as load shedding. Stand-alone reports focusing on wildfires and nonwinter storms have been published in parallel with this report. This report can be used as a starting point for understanding potential investment prioritization processes and investment options. This report is intended to improve utility resilience planning by supporting constructive dialogue among utilities, regulators, and other stakeholders.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Current Practices in Distribution Utility Resilience Planning for Wildfires

This report is part of a series of hazard-focused case studies examining common practices in electric utility resilience planning. We use standard terminology defining resilience as the ability to anticipate, withstand, absorb, and recover from hazards that cause long duration outages. We distinguish between reliability and resilience using IEEE 1366-2022, which defines major events as "an event that exceeds reasonable design and/or operational limits of the electric power system." Resilience planning is focused on major event days, and reliability planning is focused on non-major event days. Utility resilience plans are assessed according to common resilience components identified in existing resilience frameworks. The focus of this report is on wildfires. Standalone reports focusing on severe storms (including hurricanes and non-winter storms) and winter storms have been published in parallel with this report. This report can be used as a starting point for understanding potential investment prioritization processes and investment options. This report is intended to improve utility resilience planning by supporting constructive dialogue among utilities, regulators, and other stakeholders.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Current Practices in Distribution Utility Resilience Planning for Hurricanes and Non-Winter Storms

This report is part of a series of hazard-focused case studies examining common practices in electric utility resilience planning. We use standard terminology defining resilience as the ability to anticipate, withstand, absorb, and recover from hazards that cause long duration outages. We distinguish between reliability and resilience using IEEE 1366-2022, which defines "major events" as "an event that exceeds reasonable design and/or operational limits of the electric power system." Resilience planning is focused on "major event days" and reliability planning is focused on non-major event days. Utility resilience plans are assessed according to common recommended resilience components that we have identified in existing resilience frameworks. The focus of this report is on hurricanes and severe storms in which the primary hazards are precipitation or high winds. We exclude winter storms with primary hazards of ice and extreme cold, as they are a unique set of hazards with different resilience considerations. Standalone reports focusing on wildfires and winter storms have been published in parallel with this report. This report can be used as a starting point for understanding potential investment prioritization processes and investment options. This report is intended to improve utility resilience planning by supporting constructive dialogue among utilities, regulators, and other stakeholders.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Opportunities for Integrating Electric and Gas Planning

Growing demand for electricity in buildings is creating new opportunities and challenges for electric and natural gas planning. To date, electric and gas planning processes have largely been siloed, and only a few jurisdictions have started to examine how these two processes could be linked together. The report explores the current state of electric and gas system planning, and the benefits and challenges of integrating these planning processes. We frame the characteristics of an integrated electric and gas distribution planning process and identify indicators of progress toward the characteristics.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Integration of Design Data Into Automated Fiber Placement Process Planning Metrics

With the ever-expanding aviation industry, a need is arising for more rapid production of composite aircraft to meet increasing demand. State-of-the-art aircraft such as the Boeing 787showcase 50% composite material usage by weight, highlighting this emerging industry-wide adoption of the material system. Currently, many of the large structures associated with these aircraft are manufactured additively via Automated Fiber Placement (AFP). The AFP process shows great potential for efficient manufacturing, however unavoidable defects still occur because of tool surface geometry, placement errors, or poor process planning, resulting in decreased quality and throughput. Due to such effects, it is critical to incorporate design for manufacturing (DFM) principles to achieve the optimal manufacturing plan and resulting structure. This work will develop a methodology for incorporating design information into process planning metrics in an automated fashion to achieve an optimal set of process inputs.The analysis incorporates HyperX, Computer Aided Process Planning (CAPP) and Vericut Composite Programming (VCP). Safety margins from HyperX are imported into CAPP where AFP defects are mapped to the values. The resulting margins are then incorporated into the CAPP manufacturability algorithms, creating a design informed process planning analysis

Automated Fiber Placement↗

Development and Clustering of Rate-Oriented Load Metrics for Customer Price-Plan Analysis: Preprint

One of the few methods electric utilities can use to motivate and change customer energy consumption is through their retail rate structures. Utilities are increasingly moving towards more dynamic rate-plans to achieve the objectives of motivating energy conservation, increasing self-consumption from onsite renewable generation, reducing peak demand and to flattening the demand profiles. This paper presents a set of rate-oriented customer load metrics that are the determinants of customers bill under four unique rate-plans. These metrics are not only indicative of which rate structure a customer should choose based on their load profiles, but also convey useful information about load consumption behavior. With these metrics, the utility can analyze their customers and identify customer classes that are rewarded under each rate-plan. This can help inform utilities whether the customer profiles being rewarded under each rate-plans are meeting their original objectives. To develop these customer classes, we calculate these rate-oriented load metrics for each customer and perform k-means clustering. The analysis is conducted on from a set of 300 customer profiles, examining the impact of four different rate-plans, different numbers of clusters and looking at customer bills and cluster load profile characteristics.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Key Takeaways: First Cohort of Action Plans for Rapid Power Sector Decarbonization

The purpose of this synthesis report is to extract key takeaways from the first cohort of CEM Action Plans for rapid power sector decarbonization, developed by Australia, Chile, the European Union, India, and the United Kingdom. These Action Plans differ in their approach to power sector decarbonization based on the domestic resources available, governance structure, and regional context, among other factors. However, they also share common themes that were emphasized in the collaborative report released at CEM13. This report is not intended to be inclusive of all components in each Action Plan. Rather, this report highlights how select best practices for planning, building, and operating power systems are being implemented differently in these Action Plans, with equal focus given to each jurisdiction. Ministers and stakeholders from other governments with similar decarbonization goals can consider these examples within their own unique context.

Australia↗

Alternative D and D Planning Tool - 12466

On August 1, 2011, URS - CH2M Oak Ridge LLC (UCOR) began cleanup of the East Tennessee Technology Park (ETTP). UCOR's $2.2 billion contract has an initial five-year term and a four-year option period for completing the cleanup of ETTP and performing surveillance and maintenance and waste management operations at both the Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the Y-12 National Security Complex. ETTP D and D work includes disposition of large, complex, contaminated, Manhattan Project-era facilities such as the K-25 and K-27 uranium enrichment facilities. At ETTP, UCOR views the D and D process as a 'Waste Factory' with waste production lines from the point-of-generation to the point-of-disposal. Safely transforming vertically-standing buildings into horizontally-lying waste in a disposal facility is the primary cleanup objective. Whereas a factory produces widgets, D and D produces waste-lots of waste. In support of the Waste Factory view, UCOR is developing a systems planning tool to help better plan how to effect cleanup by improving waste planning, uniting waste generator with waste dis-positioner, and represent the 'waste factory' in a computer model that allows the D and D and waste management teams to better understand available disposal paths, waste uncertainties and potential consequences, driving variables, and sensitivity to changes. Any model of reality represents a compromise. Part of the Waste Factory Model's value may be in providing standardization and relative direction for assisting decision making as opposed to absolute cost or schedule answers. From that relative direction, management can commission detailed planning and estimating. Also, the model's output credibility is tied directly to its input quality. That is why, as discussed above, the Waste Factory Model's key informational component will be the standardized waste streams (e.g., Structure/Debris disposed at EMWMF) and associated standardized unit costs. The model development process generally, and the development team's collaboration, specifically, is most important. Building-in this integrity up-front, transparently, will help ensure that the model outputs are known, understood, and credible (no mysterious 'black-box' components). The Waste Factory Model is envisioned to help improve understanding of a given project's waste implications; help reveal and suggest the important few variables out of the trivial many; reveal likely process bottlenecks, and help focus risk mitigation and assumption management efforts to better manage the projected total cost. In the long term, the UCOR team's goal is to incorporate an information feedback loop to help improve the accuracy of key model attributes, such as the standardized cost information. This way, by design, the model output should improve over time and thus help the model mature into both a credible scenario tool and a standardized project planning resource. The initial model capabilities may be narrow, but with time and effort it may prove to be a timely and cost-effective tool. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Overview of the DOE nuclear fuels storage and transportation planning project - 15444

The US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy is conducting planning activities within the Nuclear Fuels Storage and Transportation Planning Project (NFST) to lay the groundwork for implementing interim storage, including associated transportation, per the Administration's Strategy for the Management and Disposal of Used Nuclear Fuel and High-Level Radioactive Waste, and to develop a foundation for a new nuclear waste management organization. The purpose of the NFST is to make progress on this important national issue within existing legislative and budgetary authorizations. The objective of the NFST is to develop and begin implementation of an integrated plan to (1) implement interim storage; (2) improve the overall integration of storage as a planned part of the waste management system; (3) prepare for the large-scale transportation of spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste, with an initial focus on removing SNF from the shutdown reactor sites; and (4) develop foundational information, resources, and capabilities needed to support the aforementioned objectives and future implementation decisions and actions. An over-arching goal is to develop options for decision-makers on the design of an integrated waste management system. The planning activities are divided into four major topical areas: (1) Consent-Based Siting, (2) Storage, (3) Transportation, and (4) Strategic Crosscuts. This paper provides an overview of the NFST and its activities. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

A Tool for Planning Near-Term Waste Transfers at the Hanford Site - 18491

Washington River Protection Solutions, LLC is developing a software tool designed to simulate near-term waste affecting activities at the Hanford Site. The tool will allow for timely planning and evaluation of near-term operational activities, as well as facilitate feedback incorporation from the field to enable rapid iteration of various planning scenarios for a Multi-Year Operating Plan. Implementation of this tool in the Multi-Year Operating Plan planning process will support building a better connection between execution of daily activities and long-term mission objectives. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Cost saving opportunities in emergency planning at nuclear power plants - 18819

This paper identifies generalized offsite emergency planning costs for 2014 covering twenty different commercial nuclear plant locations in the U.S. This information was analyzed to quantify the potential cost savings associated with reduction in offsite emergency planning zone size as a function of sixteen offsite emergency planning standards contained in 10 CFR 50.47(b). Mean annual operating and maintenance costs and startup costs for a typical offsite nuclear power plant emergency planning program were $2.25 M and $10 M, respectively. However, if a reactor design technical basis were developed that allowed for a reduction in offsite plume emergency planning zone (EPZ) size from the nominal 10 mile standard currently used, collocation of that EPZ with the site plant boundary could produce programmatic savings in excess of 90% over a typical 40 year plant life. Lesser, but still potentially significant savings, are possible if the plume EPZ were resized to five and two miles. Negligible potential cost savings were identified with reductions in the ingestion pathway EPZ size which has been typically set at 50 miles. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Advanced Fuels Campaign Execution Plan

The Advanced Fuels Campaign (AFC) Execution Plan details the strategy, mission, scope, and goals—both near-term and long-term—along with the structure and organization of nuclear fuels and materials research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) activities within the Fuel Cycle Technologies (FCT) program. The FCT program, tasked by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), employs a science-based approach to advance fuel technologies. This approach integrates theory, experiments, and multi-scale modeling and simulation (M&S) to develop a predictive understanding of fuel fabrication processes and fuel/cladding performance under irradiation, moving beyond traditional empirical methods. The long-term goals of the AFC are guided by the AFC Strategic Plan and align with the DOE Office of Nuclear Energy (NE) Roadmap [1], which outlines a multi-decade vision for demonstrating and qualifying advanced fuel forms to support diverse fuel cycle options. Near-term goals focus on enhancing accident tolerant fuels (ATF) for Light Water Reactors (LWR), a significant challenge that demands balancing immediate objectives with ongoing progress toward advanced reactor missions. Accelerating the traditional fuel qualification process to meet ATF objectives is another critical challenge. A detailed set of 5-year goals, summarized below, has been developed in line with the overarching science-based fuel development approach: • Advanced LWR Fuel Technologies: By 2027, support the development of advanced LWR fuel technologies with improved performance and enhanced accident tolerance. This includes high burnup (HBu), low enriched uranium (LEU)+, coated cladding, and doped fuel, aimed at complementing industry-led significant LWR uprates and plant refurbishments. • Tristructural Isotropic (TRISO) Fuel: Achieve qualification by 2028 and develop improved designs for emerging markets. • Metal Fuel: Achieve qualification by 2028 and develop improved designs for emerging markets. • Molten Salt Fuel: By 2027, deploy a robust program that enables fuel salt qualification technologies needed to support fuel salt research and development (R&D), focusing on emergent needs to derisk fuel salt production and utilization in advanced reactors. • Long-Term ATF: Develop fuel technologies that enable significant power uprates (~50%) in refurbished or new LWRs while optimizing fissile material utilization and waste disposal. The 5-year milestones in the AFC Execution Plan are contingent on an assumed budget. This Execution Plan will be updated annually to reflect actual funding profiles as budget guidance becomes available, ensuring milestones are adjusted accordingly. In summary, the AFC Execution Plan presents a comprehensive strategy to advance nuclear fuel technologies through a science-based approach, addressing both near-term and long-term goals while adapting to funding realities.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Chapter 8: Planning Tools to Simulate and Optimize Neighborhood Energy Systems

This section introduces different energy modeling tools available in Europe and the USA for community energy master planning process varying from strategic Urban Energy Planning to more detailed Local Energy Planning. Two modeling tools used for Energy Master Planning of primarily residential communities, the 3D city model with CityGML, and the Net Zero Planner tool developed for the US Department of Defense installations are described in more details.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Transmission Planning Studies for the Renewable Energy Zone (REZ) Process

Transmission planning studies help practitioners identify the most attractive transmission options to cost-effectively connect Renewable Energy Zones (REZs) to load while sustaining the balance between generation and demand in a variety of potential operating conditions and yielding the most benefits at minimum cost. This document focuses on the transmission planning studies of the REZ Transmission Planning process to help practitioners understand the analyses involved in studying potential transmission upgrade and expansion options, the general data requirements, and the associated modeling considerations. The REZ process is an approach to plan, approve, and build transmission infrastructure that connects REZs - geographic areas that have high-quality RE resources, suitable topography and land-use designations, and demonstrated developer interest - to the power system. The REZ process helps to increase the share of solar photovoltaic (PV), wind, and other resources while also maintaining reliability and economics.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A Scalable Solution Framework for Stochastic Transmission and Generation Planning Problems. Draft

Current commercial software tools for transmission and generation investment planning have limited stochastic modeling capabilities. Because of this limitation, electric power utilities generally rely on scenario planning heuristics to identify potentially robust and cost effective investment plans for a broad range of system, economic, and policy conditions. Several research studies have shown that stochastic models perform significantly better than deterministic or heuristic approaches, in terms of overall costs. However, there is a lack of practical solution approaches to solve such models. In this paper we propose a scalable decomposition algorithm to solve stochastic transmission and generation planning problems, respectively considering discrete and continuous decision variables for transmission and generation investments. Given stochasticity restricted to loads and wind, solar, and hydro power output, we develop a simple scenario reduction framework based on a clustering algorithm, to yield a more tractable model. The resulting stochastic optimization model is decomposed on a scenario basis and solved using a variant of the Progressive Hedging (PH) algorithm. We perform numerical experiments using a 240-bus network representation of the Western Electricity Coordinating Council in the US. Although convergence of PH to an optimal solution is not guaranteed for mixed-integer linear optimization models, we find that it is possible to obtain solutions with acceptable optimality gaps for practical applications. Our numerical simulations are performed both on a commodity workstation and on a high-performance cluster. The results indicate that large-scale problems can be solved to a high degree of accuracy in at most two hours of wall clock time.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Considerations for Resilience Guidelines for Clean Energy Plans: For the Oregon Public Utility Commission and Oregon Electricity Stakeholders

This document summarizes relevant approaches, research, models, and national examples for state utility regulators tasked with developing utility guidelines for risk-based resiliency planning. In 2021, the Oregon Legislature enacted a 100 percent clean electricity by 2040 standard that requires the Oregon Public Utility Commission (PUC) to oversee utility planning for aggressive clean energy deployment through Clean Energy Plans (House Bill 2021, Sec. 4). In addition to meeting emissions reductions targets, Clean Energy Plans must also: "Include a risk-based examination of resiliency opportunities that includes costs, consequences, outcomes, and benefits based on reasonable and prudent industry resiliency standards and guidelines established by the Public Utility Commission." This report will support the Oregon Public Utility Commission in developing resilience guidelines. Other state public utility commissions may also benefit from this research.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Selection of Global Climate Model Data for Downscaling With Generative Machine Learning and Use in the Power Planning for Alignment of Climate and Energy Systems Project

The range of results from climate models and scenarios is important to the understanding of uncertainty in power planning analysis. A U.S. Department of Energy-funded analytic project called Power Planning for Alignment of Climate and Energy Systems is developing data and analytic methods to reflect the effects of climate change on key variables for power system planning, as part of the Grid Modernization Lab Consortium. This project will select and prepare global climate model results for use in power system planning models. A related report (Evaluation of Global Climate Models for Use in Energy Analysis) assesses the performance of various global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 data archive for their historical skill with respect to energy system performance and for their future projections under multiple climate change scenarios. Building from that report, we describe the selection of a climate scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway [SSP] 2-4.5) and five climate models: TaiESM1, EC-Earth3-CC, GFDL-CM4, EC-Earth3-Veg, and MPI-ESM1-2-HR. We describe the model selection criteria, which were based on the quality of the match between model results under historical conditions and on the representation of the range of future values for several variables. These results will be downscaled via an open-source generative machine learning method called Super-Resolution for Renewable Energy Resource Data with Climate Change Impacts.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

What affects government planning for climate change adaptation: Evidence from the U.S. states

Abstract As climate change unfolds, formal planning for climate adaptation is emerging at all levels of governments. This paper examines the factors that lead U.S. state governments to develop comprehensive adaptation plans. Using an event history analysis, we find that a state is more likely to engage in adaptation planning we find that a state is more likely to engage in adaptation planning when it experienced more extreme weather events recently, has more economic activities in coastal regions, or when it has high levels of incomes and civic engagement. We also show that political ideology plays a critical role in subnational adaptation decision making. A state is less likely to pursue adaptation planning when it has a Republican governor or has a lack of preference for environmental legislations. In addition to the internal characteristics, our study further provides evidence of the external influence from other nearby adapting states through spatial policy diffusion. These findings shed light on the motivation for and obstacles to a state's adoption of adaptation policy and also provide implications for environmental federalism.

Miao, Qing↗