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At least 1,297 records · Page 72

Improving helium abundance determinations with Leo P as a case study

Currently, the primordial helium abundance is best estimated through spectroscopic observations of H II regions in metal-poor galaxies. However these determinations are limited by several systematic uncertainties which ultimately limit our ability to accurately ascertain the primordial abundance. In this study, we improve the methodologies for solving for the reddening, the emission contributions from collisional excitation of the H I atoms, the effects underlying absorption in the H I and He I emission lines, and the treatment of the blended H I and He I emission at λ3889 with the aim of lowering the systematic uncertainties in helium abundance determinations. To apply these methods, we have obtained observations of the He I λ10830 emission line in the brightest H II region in the extremely metal-poor (3% Z ⊙ ) galaxy Leo P with the LUCI1 instrument on the LBT. We combine this measurement with previous MODS/LBT observations to derive an improved helium abundance. In doing so, our present analysis results in a decrease in the uncertainty in the helium abundance of Leo P by approximately 70%. Furthermore, this result is combined with data from other observations to estimate the primordial helium mass fraction, Yp= 0.2453 ± 0.0034.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Surprising similarities in model and observational aerosol radiative forcing estimates

Abstract. The radiative forcing from aerosols (particularly through their interaction with clouds) remains one of the most uncertain components of the human forcing of the climate. Observation-based studies have typically found a smaller aerosol effective radiative forcing than in model simulations and were given preferential weighting in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). With their own sources of uncertainty, it is not clear that observation-based estimates are more reliable. Understanding the source of the model and observational differences is thus vital to reduce uncertainty in the impact of aerosols on the climate. These reported discrepancies arise from the different methods of separating the components of aerosol forcing used in model and observational studies. Applying the observational decomposition to global climate model (GCM) output, the two different lines of evidence are surprisingly similar, with a much better agreement on the magnitude of aerosol impacts on cloud properties. Cloud adjustments remain a significant source of uncertainty, particularly for ice clouds. However, they are consistent with the uncertainty from observation-based methods, with the liquid water path adjustment usually enhancing the Twomey effect by less than 50 %. Depending on different sets of assumptions, this work suggests that model and observation-based estimates could be more equally weighted in future synthesis studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Kalman filter data assimilation: Targeting observations and parameter estimation

This paper studies the effect of targeted observations on state and parameter estimates determined with Kalman filter data assimilation (DA) techniques. We first provide an analytical result demonstrating that targeting observations within the Kalman filter for a linear model can significantly reduce state estimation error as opposed to fixed or randomly located observations. We next conduct observing system simulation experiments for a chaotic model of meteorological interest, where we demonstrate that the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) with targeted observations based on largest ensemble variance is skillful in providing more accurate state estimates than the LETKF with randomly located observations. Additionally, we find that a hybrid ensemble Kalman filter parameter estimation method accurately updates model parameters within the targeted observation context to further improve state estimation.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Low-dimensional Representation of Error Covariance

Ensemble and reduced-rank approaches to prediction and assimilation rely on low-dimensional approximations of the estimation error covariances. Here stability properties of the forecast/analysis cycle for linear, time-independent systems are used to identify factors that cause the steady-state analysis error covariance to admit a low-dimensional representation. A useful measure of forecast/analysis cycle stability is the bound matrix, a function of the dynamics, observation operator and assimilation method. Upper and lower estimates for the steady-state analysis error covariance matrix eigenvalues are derived from the bound matrix. The estimates generalize to time-dependent systems. If much of the steady-state analysis error variance is due to a few dominant modes, the leading eigenvectors of the bound matrix approximate those of the steady-state analysis error covariance matrix. The analytical results are illustrated in two numerical examples where the Kalman filter is carried to steady state. The first example uses the dynamics of a generalized advection equation exhibiting nonmodal transient growth. Failure to observe growing modes leads to increased steady-state analysis error variances. Leading eigenvectors of the steady-state analysis error covariance matrix are well approximated by leading eigenvectors of the bound matrix. The second example uses the dynamics of a damped baroclinic wave model. The leading eigenvectors of a lowest-order approximation of the bound matrix are shown to approximate well the leading eigenvectors of the steady-state analysis error covariance matrix.

Tippett, Michael K.↗

Imputation for multisource data with comparison and assessment techniques

Missing data are prevalent issue in analyses involving data collection. The problem of missing data is exacerbated for multisource analysis, where data from multiple sensors are combined to arrive at a single conclusion. In this scenario, it is more likely to occur and can lead to discarding a large amount of data collected; however, the information from observed sensors can be leveraged to estimate those values not observed. We propose two methods for imputation of multisource data, both of which take advantage of potential correlation between data from different sensors, through ridge regression and a state-space model. These methods, as well as the common median imputation, are applied to data collected from a variety of sensors monitoring an experimental facility. Performance of imputation methods is compared with the mean absolute deviation; however, rather than using this metric to solely rank themethods,we also propose an approach to identify significant differences. Imputation techniqueswill also be assessed by their ability to produce appropriate confidence intervals, through coverage and length, around the imputed values. Finally, performance of imputed datasets is compared with a marginalized dataset through a weighted k-means clustering. In general, we found that imputation through a dynamic linearmodel tended to be the most accurate and to produce the most precise confidence intervals, and that imputing the missing values and down weighting them with respect to observed values in the analysis led to the most accurate performance.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A new technique for Auger analysis of surface species subject to electron-induced desorption.

A method is presented to observe surface species subject to electron-induced desorption by Auger electron spectroscopy. The surface to be examined is moved under the electron beam at constant velocity, establishing a time-independent condition and eliminating the time response of the electron spectrometer as a limiting factor. The dependence of the Auger signal on the sample velocity, incident electron current, beam diameter, and desorption cross section is analyzed. It is shown that it is advantageous to analyze the moving sample with a high beam current, in contrast to the usual practice of using a low beam current to minimize desorption from a stationary sample. The method is illustrated by the analysis of a friction transfer film of PTFE, in which the fluorine is removed by electron-induced desorption. The method is relevant to surface studies in the field of lubrication and catalysis.

Pepper, S. V.↗

Joint Bayesian Component Separation and CMB Power Spectrum Estimation

We describe and implement an exact, flexible, and computationally efficient algorithm for joint component separation and CMB power spectrum estimation, building on a Gibbs sampling framework. Two essential new features are (1) conditional sampling of foreground spectral parameters and (2) joint sampling of all amplitude-type degrees of freedom (e.g., CMB, foreground pixel amplitudes, and global template amplitudes) given spectral parameters. Given a parametric model of the foreground signals, we estimate efficiently and accurately the exact joint foreground- CMB posterior distribution and, therefore, all marginal distributions such as the CMB power spectrum or foreground spectral index posteriors. The main limitation of the current implementation is the requirement of identical beam responses at all frequencies, which restricts the analysis to the lowest resolution of a given experiment. We outline a future generalization to multiresolution observations. To verify the method, we analyze simple models and compare the results to analytical predictions. We then analyze a realistic simulation with properties similar to the 3 yr WMAP data, downgraded to a common resolution of 3 deg FWHM. The results from the actual 3 yr WMAP temperature analysis are presented in a companion Letter.

numerical↗

The ICARE Method

The ICARE method is a flexible, widely applicable method for systems engineers to solve problems and resolve issues in a complete and comprehensive manner. The method can be tailored by diverse users for direct application to their function (e.g. system integrators, design engineers, technical discipline leads, analysts, etc.). The clever acronym, ICARE, instills the attitude of accountability, safety, technical rigor and engagement in the problem resolution: Identify, Communicate, Assess, Report, Execute (ICARE). This method was developed through observation of Space Shuttle Propulsion Systems Engineering and Integration (PSE&I) office personnel approach in an attempt to succinctly describe the actions of an effective systems engineer. Additionally it evolved from an effort to make a broadly-defined checklist for a PSE&I worker to perform their responsibilities in an iterative and recursive manner. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Systems Engineering Handbook states, engineering of NASA systems requires a systematic and disciplined set of processes that are applied recursively and iteratively for the design, development, operation, maintenance, and closeout of systems throughout the life cycle of the programs and projects. ICARE is a method that can be applied within the boundaries and requirements of NASA s systems engineering set of processes to provide an elevated sense of duty and responsibility to crew and vehicle safety. The importance of a disciplined set of processes and a safety-conscious mindset increases with the complexity of the system. Moreover, the larger the system and the larger the workforce, the more important it is to encourage the usage of the ICARE method as widely as possible. According to the NASA Systems Engineering Handbook, elements of a system can include people, hardware, software, facilities, policies and documents; all things required to produce system-level results, qualities, properties, characteristics, functions, behavior and performance. The ICARE method can be used to improve all elements of a system and, consequently, the system-level functional, physical and operational performance. Even though ICARE was specifically designed for a systems engineer, any person whose job is to examine another person, product, or process can use the ICARE method to improve effectiveness, implementation, usefulness, value, capability, efficiency, integration, design, and/or marketability. This paper provides the details of the ICARE method, emphasizing the method s application to systems engineering. In addition, a sample of other, non-systems engineering applications are briefly discussed to demonstrate how ICARE can be tailored to a variety of diverse jobs (from project management to parenting).

Henke, Luke↗

Astrophysical Model Selection in Gravitational Wave Astronomy

Theoretical studies in gravitational wave astronomy have mostly focused on the information that can be extracted from individual detections, such as the mass of a binary system and its location in space. Here we consider how the information from multiple detections can be used to constrain astrophysical population models. This seemingly simple problem is made challenging by the high dimensionality and high degree of correlation in the parameter spaces that describe the signals, and by the complexity of the astrophysical models, which can also depend on a large number of parameters, some of which might not be directly constrained by the observations. We present a method for constraining population models using a hierarchical Bayesian modeling approach which simultaneously infers the source parameters and population model and provides the joint probability distributions for both. We illustrate this approach by considering the constraints that can be placed on population models for galactic white dwarf binaries using a future space-based gravitational wave detector. We find that a mission that is able to resolve approximately 5000 of the shortest period binaries will be able to constrain the population model parameters, including the chirp mass distribution and a characteristic galaxy disk radius to within a few percent. This compares favorably to existing bounds, where electromagnetic observations of stars in the galaxy constrain disk radii to within 20%.

hierarchical↗

Electrochemical Response of Alkaline Batteries Subject to Quasi-Static and Dynamic Loading

We report electrochemical changes were successfully monitored through the coupling of external loading, electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS), and distribution of relaxation times (DRT) analysis. The development of the testing methods allows for detailed observation of changes due to mechanical loading and distinguishes responses between different cell geometries. Comparison of the force vs displacement, voltage vs displacement, and distribution of relaxation times plots to the different cell geometries display failure modes specific to geometry as well as the impact of different loading profiles. Numerical modeling confirmed the movement within individual cells and predicted locations with the most deformation based on the external loading condition applied. The results gathered from combining mechanical loading, electrochemical response, and numerical modeling, yield a viable approach to establishing an improved understanding of the effects of mechanical loading on the electrochemical response of multiple battery geometries and the methods herein may be extensible to additional battery chemistries.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Deep learning: Extrapolation tool for ab initio nuclear theory

Ab initio approaches in nuclear theory, such as the no-core shell model (NCSM), have been developed for approximately solving finite nuclei with realistic strong interactions. The NCSM and other approaches require an extrapolation of the results obtained in a finite basis space to the infinite basis space limit and assessment of the uncertainty of those extrapolations. Each observable requires a separate extrapolation and many observables have no proven extrapolation method. Herein, we propose a feed-forward artificial neural network (ANN) method as an extrapolation tool to obtain the ground-state energy and the ground-state point-proton root-mean-square (rms) radius along with their extrapolation uncertainties. The designed ANNs are sufficient to produce results for these two very different observables in 6 Li from the ab initio NCSM results in small basis spaces that satisfy the following theoretical physics condition: independence of basis space parameters in the limit of extremely large matrices. Comparisons of the ANN findings with other extrapolation methods are also provided.

6Li↗

Adaptive Error Estimation in Linearized Ocean General Circulation Models

Data assimilation methods are routinely used in oceanography. The statistics of the model and measurement errors need to be specified a priori. This study addresses the problem of estimating model and measurement error statistics from observations. We start by testing innovation based methods of adaptive error estimation with low-dimensional models in the North Pacific (5-60 deg N, 132-252 deg E) to TOPEX/POSEIDON (TIP) sea level anomaly data, acoustic tomography data from the ATOC project, and the MIT General Circulation Model (GCM). A reduced state linear model that describes large scale internal (baroclinic) error dynamics is used. The methods are shown to be sensitive to the initial guess for the error statistics and the type of observations. A new off-line approach is developed, the covariance matching approach (CMA), where covariance matrices of model-data residuals are "matched" to their theoretical expectations using familiar least squares methods. This method uses observations directly instead of the innovations sequence and is shown to be related to the MT method and the method of Fu et al. (1993). Twin experiments using the same linearized MIT GCM suggest that altimetric data are ill-suited to the estimation of internal GCM errors, but that such estimates can in theory be obtained using acoustic data. The CMA is then applied to T/P sea level anomaly data and a linearization of a global GFDL GCM which uses two vertical modes. We show that the CMA method can be used with a global model and a global data set, and that the estimates of the error statistics are robust. We show that the fraction of the GCM-T/P residual variance explained by the model error is larger than that derived in Fukumori et al.(1999) with the method of Fu et al.(1993). Most of the model error is explained by the barotropic mode. However, we find that impact of the change in the error statistics on the data assimilation estimates is very small. This is explained by the large representation error, i.e. the dominance of the mesoscale eddies in the T/P signal, which are not part of the 21 by 1" GCM. Therefore, the impact of the observations on the assimilation is very small even after the adjustment of the error statistics. This work demonstrates that simult&neous estimation of the model and measurement error statistics for data assimilation with global ocean data sets and linearized GCMs is possible. However, the error covariance estimation problem is in general highly underdetermined, much more so than the state estimation problem. In other words there exist a very large number of statistical models that can be made consistent with the available data. Therefore, methods for obtaining quantitative error estimates, powerful though they may be, cannot replace physical insight. Used in the right context, as a tool for guiding the choice of a small number of model error parameters, covariance matching can be a useful addition to the repertory of tools available to oceanographers.

Chechelnitsky, Michael Y.↗

An application of eigenspace methods to symmetric flutter suppression

An eigenspace assignment approach to the design of parameter insensitive control laws for linear multivariable systems is presented. The control design scheme utilizes flexibility in eigenvector assignments to reduce control system sensitivity to changes in system parameters. The methods involve use of the singular value decomposition to provide an exact description of allowable eigenvectors in terms of a minimum number of design parameters. In a design example, the methods are applied to the problem of symmetric flutter suppression in an aeroelastic vehicle. In this example the flutter mode is sensitive to changes in dynamic pressure and eigenspace methods are used to enhance the performance of a stabilizing minimum energy/linear quadratic regulator controller and associated observer. Results indicate that the methods provide feedback control laws that make stability of the nominal closed loop systems insensitive to changes in dynamic pressure.

Fennell, Robert E.↗

Towards Flange-to-Flange Turbopump Simulations for Liquid Rocket Engines

The primary objective of this research is to support the design of liquid rocket systems for the Advanced Space Transportation System. Since the space launch systems in the near future are likely to rely on liquid rocket engines, increasing the efficiency and reliability of the engine components is an important task. One of the major problems in the liquid rocket engine is to understand fluid dynamics of fuel and oxidizer flows from the fuel tank to plume. Understanding the flow through the entire turbopump geometry through numerical simulation will be of significant value toward design. This will help to improve safety of future space missions. One of the milestones of this effort is to develop, apply and demonstrate the capability and accuracy of 3D CFD methods as efficient design analysis tools on high performance computer platforms. The development of the MPI and MLP versions of the INS3D code is currently underway. The serial version of INS3D code is a multidimensional incompressible Navier-Stokes solver based on overset grid technology. INS3D-MPI is based on the explicit massage-passing interface across processors and is primarily suited for distributed memory systems. INS3D-MLP is based on multi-level parallel method and is suitable for distributed-shared memory systems. For the entire turbopump simulations, moving boundary capability and an efficient time-accurate integration methods are build in the flow solver. To handle the geometric complexity and moving boundary problems, overset grid scheme is incorporated with the solver that new connectivity data will be obtained at each time step. The Chimera overlapped grid scheme allows subdomains move relative to each other, and provides a great flexibility when the boundary movement creates large displacements. The performance of the two time integration schemes for time-accurate computations is investigated. For an unsteady flow which requires small physical time step, the pressure projection method was found to be computationally efficient since it does not require any subiterations procedure. It was observed that the artificial compressibility method requires a fast convergence scheme at each physical time step in order to satisfy incompressibility condition. This was obtained by using a GMRES-ILU(0) solver in our computations. When a line-relaxation scheme was used, the time accuracy was degraded and time-accurate computations became very expensive. The current geometry for the LOX boost turbopump has various rotating and stationary components, such as inducer, stators, kicker, hydrolic turbine, where the flow is extremely unsteady. Figure 1 shows the geometry and computed surface pressure of the inducer. The inducer and the hydrolic turbine rotate in different rotational speed.

Kiris, Cetin↗

Supercomputing Aspects for Simulating Incompressible Flow

The primary objective of this research is to support the design of liquid rocket systems for the Advanced Space Transportation System. Since the space launch systems in the near future are likely to rely on liquid rocket engines, increasing the efficiency and reliability of the engine components is an important task. One of the major problems in the liquid rocket engine is to understand fluid dynamics of fuel and oxidizer flows from the fuel tank to plume. Understanding the flow through the entire turbo-pump geometry through numerical simulation will be of significant value toward design. One of the milestones of this effort is to develop, apply and demonstrate the capability and accuracy of 3D CFD methods as efficient design analysis tools on high performance computer platforms. The development of the Message Passage Interface (MPI) and Multi Level Parallel (MLP) versions of the INS3D code is currently underway. The serial version of INS3D code is a multidimensional incompressible Navier-Stokes solver based on overset grid technology, INS3D-MPI is based on the explicit massage-passing interface across processors and is primarily suited for distributed memory systems. INS3D-MLP is based on multi-level parallel method and is suitable for distributed-shared memory systems. For the entire turbo-pump simulations, moving boundary capability and efficient time-accurate integration methods are built in the flow solver, To handle the geometric complexity and moving boundary problems, an overset grid scheme is incorporated with the solver so that new connectivity data will be obtained at each time step. The Chimera overlapped grid scheme allows subdomains move relative to each other, and provides a great flexibility when the boundary movement creates large displacements. Two numerical procedures, one based on artificial compressibility method and the other pressure projection method, are outlined for obtaining time-accurate solutions of the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations. The performance of the two methods is compared by obtaining unsteady solutions for the evolution of twin vortices behind a flat plate. Calculated results are compared with experimental and other numerical results. For an unsteady flow, which requires small physical time step, the pressure projection method was found to be computationally efficient since it does not require any subiteration procedure. It was observed that the artificial compressibility method requires a fast convergence scheme at each physical time step in order to satisfy the incompressibility condition. This was obtained by using a GMRES-ILU(0) solver in present computations. When a line-relaxation scheme was used, the time accuracy was degraded and time-accurate computations became very expensive.

Kwak, Dochan↗

Time-Accurate Solutions of Incompressible Navier-Stokes Equations for Potential Turbopump Applications

Two numerical procedures, one based on artificial compressibility method and the other pressure projection method, are outlined for obtaining time-accurate solutions of the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations. The performance of the two method are compared by obtaining unsteady solutions for the evolution of twin vortices behind a at plate. Calculated results are compared with experimental and other numerical results. For an un- steady ow which requires small physical time step, pressure projection method was found to be computationally efficient since it does not require any subiterations procedure. It was observed that the artificial compressibility method requires a fast convergence scheme at each physical time step in order to satisfy incompressibility condition. This was obtained by using a GMRES-ILU(0) solver in our computations. When a line-relaxation scheme was used, the time accuracy was degraded and time-accurate computations became very expensive.

Kiris, Cetin↗

Agile Satellite Planning for Multi-Payload Observations in Earth Science Models

We present the planner methods and preliminary results for a new paradigm of earth observing systems based on coordinating science observations for a constellation of agile satellites which can quickly maneuver to change viewing angles. Each satellite has multiple heterogeneous instruments.

Satellite Constellation↗

Multibody instantly centered moving Lagrangian observer schemes. I - Formulation. II - Application to vehicular simulations

A finite element modeling method employing an instantly centered moving Lagrangian observer is proposed to solve multibody problems involving several rotating components, each with its own rotational history. The present technique allows the steady-state behavior of the problem simulation to be rendered stationary and time independent. In the second part, the method is extended to model the steady and transient response of ground-based automotive-type vehicular systems, including the modeling of vehicular obstruction rollover events.

Padovan, Joseph↗