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At least 1,297 records · Page 72

Using an Advanced Distribution Management System Test Bed to Evaluate the Impact of Model Quality on Volt/VAR Optimization: Preprint

In this paper, we present a test bed for evaluating existing and future advanced distribution management system (ADMS) applications in a realistic laboratory setting, including other utility management systems and field equipment. We present an example of using it to evaluate the impact of the ADMS network model quality on a Volt/VAR optimization (VVO) application. The test bed integrates a commercial ADMS with a real-time simulation model of a utility distribution feeder. Representative power and controller hardware are integrated through hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) techniques. The performance of the ADMS VVO application is also evaluated for different levels of measurement density. Initial results indicate that a higher model quality achieves the highest possible energy savings while avoiding voltage violations, whereas a lower model quality results in increased energy savings but at the expense of more voltage violations.

ADMS↗

A helical actuator driven by biased SMA: design, model, and experiment

A helical actuator driven by biased shape memory alloy (SMA) patterns embedded into a soft composite ribbon base is presented in this work. Instead of common U-shape SMA wires, a single SMA wire is woven into planar patterns, which enable helical deformation of the composite ribbon from an initially flat geometry. An analytical static model is established for accurate and rapid prediction of the helical reconfiguration arising from the shape memory effect of woven SMA patterns, followed by validation of the static model using the finite element method (FEM). The finite element results are compared with the analytical solutions given by this static model, which show a high agreement. Parametric study of the influences of eight independent design variables on the dependent helical parameters, such as combined curvatures, pitches, and helical angles, is completed. It is found that the helically deformed geometry is mainly dominated by diameters, biased positions, inclined angles, and numbers of skewed segments of the SMA wire. Fabrication and in-situ experimental test of a prototype of such helical actuators qualitatively demonstrate its dramatic three-dimensional (3D) spiral reconfiguration from a two-dimensional (2D) flat ribbon. In conclusion, such SMA patterns will allow more diverse designs of soft actuators for a wider range of robotic applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Role of Perturbing Ocean Initial Condition in Simulated Regional Sea Level Change

Multiple lines of observational evidence indicate that the global climate has been getting warmer since the early 20th century. This warmer climate has led to a global mean sea level rise of about 18 cm during the 20th century, and over 6 cm for the first 15 years of the 21st century. Regionally the sea level rise is not uniform due in large part to internal climate variability. To better serve the community, the uncertainties of predicting/projecting regional sea level changes associated with internal climate variability need to be quantified. Previous research on this topic has used single-model large ensembles with perturbed atmospheric initial conditions (ICs). Here we compare uncertainties associated with perturbing ICs in just the atmosphere and just the ocean using a state-of-the-art coupled climate model. We find that by perturbing the oceanic ICs, the uncertainties in regional sea level changes increase compared to those with perturbed atmospheric ICs. In order for us to better assess the full spectrum of the impacts of such internal climate variability on regional and global sea level rise, approaches that involve perturbing both atmospheric and oceanic initial conditions are thus necessary.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Energy based fracture initiation criterion for strain-crystallizing rubber-like materials with pre-existing cracks

Fracture prediction is indispensable for polymers, like rubbers, which have a broad range of applications mainly due to their high extensibility. The phenomenon known as strain-induced crystallization further contributes to the fracture toughness of certain rubbers. Here in this study, a criterion based on internal bond energy, incorporating the effects of crystallization, is proposed to predict fracture initiation in rubber-like materials with pre-existing cracks. First, a multi-scale mechanical model is developed for characterizing the behavior of rubber when subjected to both uniaxial and biaxial deformation states. At the microscale, both the amorphous and crystalline chain segments are modeled as elastic in order to consider the energy contribution by the molecular bond distortions. This internal energy is considered along with the entropic and crystalline free energy for each chain. In the chain model, the effects of loading condition and the relative orientation of a chain on its crystallinity are taken into account. At the macroscopic scale, an existing crystallinity distribution function is adapted and a mixed finite element formulation with an augmented Lagrangian multiplier is utilized to impose the incompressibility constraint. A non-affine maximal advance path constraint based homogenization model is utilized for bridging the two scales. Its potential to account for anisotropy in the stretched network compels the model to be preferable due to its physical significance, for the purpose of fracture modeling. The rigidity of the crystallites is accounted for by proposing a crystallite distortion energy in addition to the critical bond dissociation energy, for fracture initiation to occur. The model is validated by comparison with existing experimental results for both crystallizing and non-crystallizing rubbers. In addition to its potential to predict the material behavior when subjected to uniaxial and biaxial loading, the capability of the model to quantitatively estimate the effect of crystallization on fracture initiation is also verified.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

HVDC Macrogrid Modeling for Power-flow and Transient Stability Studies in North American Continental-Level Interconnections

High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) transmission lines are being constructed throughout the world, aided by advancements in power electronics and the potential value to transfer power between distant areas and off-shore locations. Multiple HVDC lines within and across large AC interconnections could bring about economic benefits such as interregional capacity exchange, and transfer of low-cost, distant electric energy directly to load centers. In addition, network configuration of HVDC lines could result in additional benefits that have not been deeply studied. This paper describes the modeling process for continental-level power system interconnections with the addition of multiple HVDC lines configured as a macrogrid. The models used for study are based on industry-accepted power-flow and dynamic system models for the North American Eastern and Western Interconnections. The model provides insight on feasibility and initial steady-state and stability tests of the HVDC macrogrid and its interactions with the existing electricity infrastructure, opening the door to analysis of the technical value of such a macrogrid.

HVDC transmission, North American Power Grids, AC ↗

First high-resolution γ-ray spectroscopy of 41 Si

The first high-resolution in-beam γ -ray spectroscopy is reported for the neutron-rich nucleus 41 Si, a tenant of the N = 28 island of inversion. Excited states were populated in the direct one-proton removal reaction from 42 P projectiles and pn removal from 43 P. Seven γ-ray transitions were observed, only one of which had been reported previously in the literature. Furthermore, this makes 41 Si the most neutron-rich odd-even N = 27 isotone with high-resolution excited-state information. For the one-proton removal, the measured partial cross-section distribution to all observed bound final states is contrasted with results from direct one-proton removal calculations that combine eikonal reaction dynamics with SDPF-MU shell-model spectroscopic factors and assume various possible initial states for the poorly known 42 P projectile. Rather distinct calculated cross-section distributions emerge that, in comparison to the new data, imply that the initial state in 42 P is most likely 3 – or 2 – rather than 1 – or 0 – , the predicted shell-model ground state of 42 P. It is further shown that the level scheme from the novel VS-IMSRG calculation closely agrees with the one of SDPF-MU, the most successful phenomenological shell-model effective interaction in describing the much discussed neighboring isotope 42 Si, perhaps cross-validating these complementary approaches on the quest to model rapid shell evolution away from the valley of β stability.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Body Mass Index at Accession and Incident Cardiometabolic Risk Factors in US Army Soldiers, 2001–2011

Individuals entering US Army service are generally young and healthy, but many are overweight, which may impact cardiometabolic risk despite physical activity and fitness requirements. This analysis examines the association between Soldiers’ BMI at accession and incident cardiometabolic risk factors (CRF) using longitudinal data from 731,014 Soldiers (17.0% female; age: 21.6 [3.9] years; BMI: 24.7 [3.8] kg/m 2 ) who were assessed at Army accession, 2001–2011. CRF were defined as incident diagnoses through 2011, by ICD-9 code, of metabolic syndrome, glucose/insulin disorder, hypertension, dyslipidemia, or overweight/obesity (in those not initially overweight/obese). Multivariable-adjusted proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) between BMI categories at accession and CRF. Initially underweight (BMI<18.5 kg/m 2 ) were 2.4% of Soldiers, 53.5% were normal weight (18.5-<25), 34.2% were overweight (25-<30), and 10.0% were obese (≥30). Mean age range at CRF diagnosis was 24–29 years old, with generally low CRF incidence: 228 with metabolic syndrome, 3,880 with a glucose/insulin disorder, 26,373 with hypertension, and 13,404 with dyslipidemia. Of the Soldiers who were not overweight or obese at accession, 5,361 were eventually diagnosed as overweight or obese. Relative to Soldiers who were normal weight at accession, those who were overweight or obese, respectively, had significantly higher risk of developing each CRF after multivariable adjustment (HR [95% CI]: metabolic syndrome: 4.13 [2.87–5.94], 13.36 [9.00–19.83]; glucose/insulin disorder: 1.39 [1.30–1.50], 2.76 [2.52–3.04]; hypertension: 1.85 [1.80–1.90], 3.31 [3.20–3.42]; dyslipidemia: 1.81 [1.75–1.89], 3.19 [3.04–3.35]). Risk of hypertension, dyslipidemia, and overweight/obesity in initially underweight Soldiers was 40%, 31%, and 79% lower, respectively, versus normal-weight Soldiers. BMI in early adulthood has important implications for cardiometabolic health, even within young, physically active populations.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Coupled Physics Simulation of Expansive Reactions in Concrete with the Grizzly Code

The Grizzly code is being developed under the US Department of Energy’s Light Water Sustainability program as a tool to model aging mechanisms and their effects on the integrity of critical nuclear power plant components. An important application for Grizzly is the modeling of aging in concrete structures, which can be due to a number of mechanisms. Initial focus in this area has been on modeling expansive reactions due to alkali-silica reactions or radiation-induced volumetric expansion. Grizzly is an inherently multiphysics modeling platform that naturally permits including the effects of multiple coupled physics in a simulation. Models have been developed for transport of heat and moisture in concrete, and these have been coupled and used as inputs to models for expansive reactions. This paper summarizes this capability as well as work currently underway to couple it with mechanical deformation models that account for nonlinear constitutive behavior.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Process Optimization and Modeling for Minerals Sustainability (PrOMMiS) v1.0.0

The U.S. Department of Energy's ("DOE") Process Optimization and Modeling for Minerals Sustainability project ("PrOMMiS Project") was initiated in 2023 to transform the national Critical Minerals and Rare Earth Elements (CM & REE) landscape, thereby supporting DOE's three enduring strategic objectives: security, economic competitiveness, and environmental responsibility. To address this initiative, the PrOMMiS Project will develop, demonstrate, and deploy an open-source, advanced system modeling, optimization, and analysis application ("PrOMMiS Software Application") that will support industry decision-makers by accelerating the scale-up of novel CM & REE technologies by de-risking the development and deployment of commercial scale processes and maximizing learning throughout the development cycle.

Beattie, KeithS [Lawrence Berkeley National Labora↗

Renewable Energy Potential Model: Geothermal Supply Curves

The Renewable Energy Potential (reV) model is a geospatial platform for estimating technical potential and developing renewable energy supply curves, initially developed for wind and solar technologies. The model evaluates deployment constraints, considering land use, environmental, and cultural factors, and estimates the distance to existing grid features to connect future plants (Maclaurin et al., 2021). A pressing deficiency in the reV model, however, is representation of geothermal electricity generation technologies. To address this gap, we developed a novel geothermal generation module for reV that allows for representation and analysis at the same level of detail as other renewable technologies. The included paper describes our process for evaluating data sources for the modeling, and presents five preliminary reV geothermal results. More specifically, we present two sets of resource data that represent upper and lower bounds for geothermal potential. We then present several sensitivity runs using the upper bound resource data; the results are encouraging that levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) can be reduced by optimizing the location and estimated capacity of the spatially diverse geothermal resource while considering the distance to existing grid infrastructure. Our preliminary supply curves and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) results provided here should be considered with care due to the high uncertainty in geothermal resource potential data. We present median LCOE values for the conterminous U.S. for three scenarios: two hydrothermal (3.5km depth, USGS heat flow & SMU temperatures respectively) and one EGS (4.5km depth, SMU temperatures). The capital and operating costs for each respective technology are modeled. We also compare results using two different resource data sources.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Spatio-temporal Estimates of Disease Transmission Parameters for COVID-19 with a Fully-Coupled, County-Level Model of the United States

Sandia National Laboratories has developed a capability to estimate parameters of epidemiological models from case reporting data to support responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. A differentiating feature of this work is the ability to simultaneously estimate county-specific disease transmission parameters in a nation-wide model that considers mobility between counties. The approach is focused on estimating parameters in a stochastic SEIR model that considers mobility between model patches (i.e., counties) as well as additional infectious compartments. The inference engine developed by Sandia includes (1) reconstruction and (2) transmission parameter inference. Reconstruction involves estimating current population counts within each of the compartments in a modified SEIR model from reported case data. Reconstruction produces input for the inference formulations, and it provides initial conditions that can be used in other modeling and planning efforts. Inference involves the solution of a large-scale optimization problem to estimate the time profiles for the transmission parameters in each county. These provide quantification of changes in the transmission parameter over time (e.g., due to impact of intervention strategies). This capability has been implemented in a Python-based software package, epi_inference, that makes extensive use of Pyomo [5] and IPOPT [10] to formulate and solve the inference formulations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Development of a Geothermal Module in reV: Quantifying the Geothermal Potential while Accounting for the Geospatial Intersection of the Grid Infrastructure and Land Use Characteristics

The Renewable Energy Potential (reV) model is a geospatial platform for estimating technical potential and developing renewable energy supply curves, initially developed for wind and solar technologies. The model evaluates deployment constraints, considering land use, environmental, and cultural factors, and estimates the distance to existing grid features to connect future plants (Maclaurin et al., 2021). A pressing deficiency in the reV model, however, is representation of geothermal electricity generation technologies. To address this gap, we developed a novel geothermal generation module for reV that allows for representation and analysis at the same level of detail as other renewable technologies. This paper describes our process for evaluating data sources for the modeling, and presents five preliminary reV geothermal results. More specifically, we present two sets of resource data that represent upper and lower bounds for geothermal potential. We then present several sensitivity runs using the upper bound resource data; the results are encouraging that levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) can be reduced by optimizing the location and estimated capacity of the spatially diverse geothermal resource while considering the distance to existing grid infrastructure. Our preliminary supply curves and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) results should be considered with care due to the highly uncertainty in geothermal resource potential data. We present median LCOE values for the conterminous U.S. for five scenarios: four hydrothermal (3.5km depth) and one EGS (4.5km depth). The capital and operating costs for each respective technology are modeled. We also compare results using two different resource data sources.

exclusions↗

Development of a Geothermal Module in reV: Quantifying the Geothermal Potential While Accounting for the Geospatial Intersection of the Grid Infrastructure and Land Use Characteristics: Preprint

The Renewable Energy Potential (reV) model is a geospatial platform for estimating technical potential and developing renewable energy supply curves, initially developed for wind and solar technologies. The model evaluates deployment constraints, considering land use, environmental, and cultural factors, and estimates the distance to existing grid features to connect future plants (Maclaurin et al., 2021). A pressing deficiency in the reV model, however, is representation of geothermal electricity generation technologies. To address this gap, we developed a novel geothermal generation module for reV that allows for representation and analysis at the same level of detail as other renewable technologies. This paper describes our process for evaluating data sources for the modeling, and presents five preliminary reV geothermal results. More specifically, we present two sets of resource data that represent upper and lower bounds for geothermal potential. We then present several sensitivity runs using the upper bound resource data; the results are encouraging that levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) can be reduced by optimizing the location and estimated capacity of the spatially diverse geothermal resource while considering the distance to existing grid infrastructure. Our preliminary supply curves and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) results should be considered with care due to the highly uncertainty in geothermal resource potential data. We present median LCOE values for the conterminous U.S. for five scenarios: four hydrothermal (3.5km depth) and one EGS (4.5km depth). The capital and operating costs for each respective technology are modeled. We also compare results using two different resource data sources.

exclusions↗

Phase-field modeling of aging-induced microstructure evolution in pentaerythritol tetranitrate thin films and ramifications for shock initiation

Aging of energetic materials may change performance and affect their safety and reliability, but the relationship between microstructure changes induced by aging and consequent performance changes has not been fully established. This work presents results of phase-field method simulations used to model microstructure evolution of vapor-deposited pentaerythritol tetranitrate (PETN) thin films. Simulated aging is shown to induce grain coarsening and substantial changes of the configuration of porosity in the film: Specifically, we show that porosity tends to concentrate in large pores to a greater degree in aged films, a state that is arrived at by closure or consolidation of small pores. To evaluate the performance of the as-deposited and aged films, we perform two-dimensional hydrocode flyer-film impact simulations that incorporate the phase-field output microstructures directly, permitting us to connect features therein to changes in reactivity, a key metric of energy output for shock initiation. The results demonstrate that declining sensitivity obtained for the simulated aged films can be correlated with the loss of fine-structured pores relatively early in the aging process, while long-term microstructure evolution that gradually alters the shape of large, branching pores is less impactful. Finally, we discuss commonalities and discrepancies between our simulation results and high-throughput initiation experiments on shock initiation of aged PETN thin films.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Electroweak pion production on nuclei within the extended factorization scheme

We have applied the extended factorization scheme to investigate the electroweak pion production on nuclei. The ANL-Osaka model, which was obtained by analyzing the data of πN, γN, N(e,e'π), and N(ν,μπ) reactions up to invariant mass W=2GeV, is used to generate the matrix elements of current operators relevant to pion production off the nucleon. Medium effects on the Δ (1232) component of the meson-exchange current are included by using a Δ-nucleus potential determined from the previous Δ-hole model studies of pion-nucleus reactions. Nuclear correlations in the initial target state and in the spectator system(s) are modeled using realistic hole spectral functions. As a first step, we show that the data of 12 C(e,e') up to the Δ (1232) region can be described reasonably well. The interplay between the pion production and two-body meson-exchange mechanisms is shown to be essential in improving the agreement with the data in the “dip” region, between the quasielastic and the Δ (1232) peaks. Predictions for 12 C(ν,μπ) have also been made. They can be used to estimate pion-emission rates in neutrino-nucleus cross section, which constitutes an important systematic uncertainty to the reconstructed neutrino energy. With further improvements of the Metropolis Monte Carlo techniques to account for final states comprised of more than two particles, our approach can be employed up to W=2 GeV, where two-pion production and higher mass nucleon resonances must be included for analyzing the data from accelerator-based neutrino-oscillation experiments.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

SWAT model application for evaluating agricultural conservation practice effectiveness in reducing phosphorous loss from the Western Lake Erie Basin

Lake Erie is threatened by eutrophication and harmful algal blooms due to excess nutrient loading from agricultural sources. Agricultural conservation practices (ACPs) have been developed and implemented to reduce nutrient losses but estimating ACP effectiveness is challenging. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has been used to investigate ACP effectiveness for water quality improvement. Many SWAT applications have been developed by different investigators to evaluate ACP effectiveness for reducing nutrient, particularly phosphorus (P), loading in the agriculturally-dominated Western Lake Erie Basin (WLEB). Our objective is to establish what has been achieved by past modeling research and make suggestions for future applications and improvements. We synthesized the findings of 28 SWAT modeling studies within the WLEB. Models generally performed satisfactorily against accepted criteria for streamflow and sediment, but performance for P loads, like soluble reactive P, was mostly “unsatisfactory”. The “unsatisfactory” performance maybe due to imperfections and idealizations in model formulations and/or parameterization. Thus, simulations of P transport and transformation processes need improvement. In addition, model parameter selection is the key part of model set-up. Most SWAT modeling studies used default values during initial set-up, then performed calibration and validation. It was found that the calibrated P related parameter values varied widely across different studies, even within the same watershed with some values unrealistic for the study areas. The phenomena of different combinations of model parameters producing similar outputs indicates equifinality. Equifinality in the baseline model may impact results when ACPs are incorporated. Furthermore, the unrealistic values used in ACP assessment undermine the credibility of ACP effectiveness. Future model applications should try to re-examine the calibrated P parameters and make sure they are realistic for the study area as well as reduce equifinality by constraining the model with characterization of watershed conditions, better understanding of hydrologic processes, and parameter values based on real-world observations. As a result, future model applications should focus on improving P transport and transformation processes, using measured watershed characteristics for parameterization, and improving reflections of climate change, which could result in more accurate assessments of ACP effectiveness to meet targeted goals.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Nuclear Energy Cost Estimates for Net Zero World Initiative

This report provides recommended parameters for incorporating nuclear energy systems into decarbonization modeling scenarios. The values are primarily intended for the Net Zero World (NZW) Initiative but are expected to prove useful to other related efforts. Both costs and operational metrics are provided in the study. Several cost factors, namely overnight capital costs (OCC) and operational costs are taken to be country specific. OCC is defined as the value of building the reactor in one night considering all costs prior to the start of operations including fuel for the initial core load. The value assumes the build is neither a first nor a ‘Nth’ of a kind, but somewhere in between. All costs are escalated to 2022 USD values.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗