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At least 1,297 records · Page 72

Prompt-fission-neutron spectra in the 239 Pu( n,f ) reaction

Prompt-fission-neutron spectra from Pu 239 ( n , f ) were measured with respect to Cf 252 spontaneous fission for incident neutron energies from 0.7 to 700 MeV at the Weapons Neutron Research facility (WNR) of the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center. A newly designed high-efficiency fission chamber was coupled to the highly segmented Chi-Nu neutron liquid scintillator array to detect neutrons emitted in fission events. The double time-of-flight technique was used to deduce the incident neutron energies from the spallation target and the outgoing-neutron energies from the fission chamber. Prompt-fission-neutron spectra (PFNS) were measured with respect to Cf 252 spontaneous fission down to 200 keV and up to about 12 MeV for all the incident neutron energies with typical total uncertainties well below 2 % up to about 7-MeV outgoing-neutron energy. The general trend of PFNS is well reproduced by JEFF3.3 and ENDF evaluations, although a better agreement is found with JEFF3.3. Discrepancies were observed for the low-energy part of the spectra, especially around the opening of the second-, third- and fourth-chance fission. Additionally, neutron average kinetic energies as a function of incident neutron energy are obtained experimentally with reported total uncertainties below 0.5 % . The measured values agree with the most recent data. The trend is fairly well reproduced by the JEFF3.3 evaluation, although it fails to reproduce the experimental values within their uncertainties.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Reconciling Observed and Predicted Tropical Rainforest OH Concentrations

We present OH observations made in Amazonas, Brazil during the Green Ocean Amazon campaign (GoAmazon2014/5) from February to March of 2014. The average diurnal variation of OH peaked with a midday (10:00–15:00) average of 1.0 × 10 6 (±0.6 × 10 6 ) molecules cm -3 . This was substantially lower than previously reported in other tropical forest photochemical environments (2–5 × 10 6 molecules cm -3 ) while the simulated OH reactivity was lower. The observational data set was used to constrain a box model to examine how well current photochemical reaction mechanisms can simulate observed OH. We used one near-explicit mechanism (MCM v3.3.1) and four condensed mechanisms (i.e., RACM2, MOZART-T1, CB05, CB6r2) to simulate OH. A total of 14 days of analysis shows that all five chemical mechanisms were able to explain the measured OH within instrumental uncertainty of 40% during the campaign in the Amazonian rainforest environment. Future studies are required using more reliable NO x and VOC measurements to further investigate discrepancies in our understanding of the radical chemistry in the tropical rainforest.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Consistent lensing and clustering in a low- S 8 Universe with BOSS, DES Year 3, HSC Year 1, and KiDS-1000

ABSTRACT We evaluate the consistency between lensing and clustering based on measurements from Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey combined with galaxy–galaxy lensing from Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 3, Hyper Suprime-Cam Subaru Strategic Program (HSC) Year 1, and Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS)-1000. We find good agreement between these lensing data sets. We model the observations using the Dark Emulator and fit the data at two fixed cosmologies: Planck (S8 = 0.83), and a Lensing cosmology (S8 = 0.76). For a joint analysis limited to large scales, we find that both cosmologies provide an acceptable fit to the data. Full utilization of the higher signal-to-noise small-scale measurements is hindered by uncertainty in the impact of baryon feedback and assembly bias, which we account for with a reasoned theoretical error budget. We incorporate a systematic inconsistency parameter for each redshift bin, A, that decouples the lensing and clustering. With a wide range of scales, we find different results for the consistency between the two cosmologies. Limiting the analysis to the bins for which the impact of the lens sample selection is expected to be minimal, for the Lensing cosmology, the measurements are consistent with A = 1; A = 0.91 ± 0.04 (A = 0.97 ± 0.06) using DES+KiDS (HSC). For the Planck case, we find a discrepancy: A = 0.79 ± 0.03 (A = 0.84 ± 0.05) using DES+KiDS (HSC). We demonstrate that a kinematic Sunyaev–Zeldovich-based estimate for baryonic effects alleviates some of the discrepancy in the Planck cosmology. This analysis demonstrates the statistical power of small-scale measurements; however, caution is still warranted given modelling uncertainties and foreground sample selection effects.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Industry Requirements for Geomagnetic Disturbance Models

This research project will address the most pressing uncertainties in modeling and measuring the electric power grid effects of geomagnetic disturbances (GMDs) and the E3 portion of nuclear electromagnetic pulse (EMP). The primary goal is to help decision-makers in the electric power sector have the knowledge and tools they need to most effectively mitigate GMD effects on our nation’s electric grid, with a secondary focus on EMP. Comprehensive modeling, model assessment through sensitivity analysis, and validation with field measurement data will be the primary tasks undertaken. The goal will be a more widespread adoption of these modeling approaches, namely characterizing the uncertainty associated with these models and how that uncertainty will affect decision-making by industry. This document summarizes industry requirements for better decision-making tools, informed by feedback from an industry advisory board. These requirements help guide planning and execution of the project's remaining tasks.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Bayesian Estimation of the D(p,γ) 3 He Thermonuclear Reaction Rate

Big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) is the standard model theory for the production of the light nuclides during the early stages of the universe, taking place for a period of about 20 minutes after the big bang. Deuterium production, in particular, is highly sensitive to the primordial baryon density and the number of neutrino species, and its abundance serves as a sensitive test for the conditions in the early universe. The comparison of observed deuterium abundances with predicted ones requires reliable knowledge of the relevant thermonuclear reaction rates, and their corresponding uncertainties. Recent observations reported the primordial deuterium abundance with percent accuracy, but some theoretical predictions based on BBN are at tension with the measured values because of uncertainties in the cross section of the deuterium-burning reactions. In this work, we analyze the S-factor of the D(p,γ) 3 He reaction using a hierarchical Bayesian model. We take into account the results of eleven experiments, spanning the period of 1955--2021; more than any other study. We also present results for two different fitting functions, a two-parameter function based on microscopic nuclear theory and a four-parameter polynomial. Furthermore, our recommended reaction rates have a 2.2\% uncertainty at 0.8~GK, which is the temperature most important for deuterium BBN. Differences between our rates and previous results are discussed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The effect of turbulence on lidar backscattered signal fluctuations

CO2 lidar measurements being subjected to uncertainties caused by strong fluctuations were explained to appear primarily due to speckle effects whereas turbulence was to be negligible. Spectral cross correlation measurements performed in the near IR and in the visible show that the main contribution to the fluctuation for the above lidar wavelengths originates from the atmospheric turbulence. The standard deviation of the fluctuation signal was measured for the two wavelengths simultaneously. A typical curve representing mid-summer day changes in the value of sigma as a function of time is shown. The results, indicating the strong dependence on the turbulence, is analyzed and discussed.

Fastig, S.↗

Digital PIV Measurements of Acoustic Particle Displacements in a Normal Incidence Impedance Tube

Acoustic particle displacements and velocities inside a normal incidence impedance tube have been successfully measured for a variety of pure tone sound fields using Digital Particle Image Velocimetry (DPIV). The DPIV system utilized two 600-mj Nd:YAG lasers to generate a double-pulsed light sheet synchronized with the sound field and used to illuminate a portion of the oscillatory flow inside the tube. A high resolution (1320 x 1035 pixel), 8-bit camera was used to capture double-exposed images of 2.7-micron hollow silicon dioxide tracer particles inside the tube. Classical spatial autocorrelation analysis techniques were used to ascertain the acoustic particle displacements and associated velocities for various sound field intensities and frequencies. The results show that particle displacements spanning a range of 1-60 microns can be measured for incident sound pressure levels of 100-130 dB and for frequencies spanning 500-1000 Hz. The ability to resolve 1 micron particle displacements at sound pressure levels in the 100 dB range allows the use of DPIV systems for measurement of sound fields at much lower sound pressure levels than had been previously possible. Representative impedance tube data as well as an uncertainty analysis for the measurements are presented.

Humphreys, William M., Jr.↗

Measurement Decision Risk - The Importance of Definitions

The idea behind this presentation is how the difference in definitions can change the application. 1. Look at history, concepts, and definitions. 2. Link the test uncertainty ratio (TUR) to measurement decision risk.

Mimbs, Scott↗

The First Swift Intensive AGN Accretion Disk Reverberation Mapping Survey

Swift intensive accretion disk reverberation mapping of four AGN yielded light curves sampled ∼200–350 times in 0.3–10 keV X-ray and six UV/optical bands. Uniform reduction and cross-correlation analysis of these data sets yields three main results: (1) The X-ray/UV correlations are much weaker than those within the UV/optical, posing severe problems for the lamp-post reprocessing model in which variations in a central X-ray corona drive and power those in the surrounding accretion disk. (2) The UV/optical interband lags are generally consistent with t μ l4 3 as predicted by the centrally illuminated thin accretion disk model. While the average interband lags are somewhat larger than predicted, these results alone are not inconsistent with the thin disk model given the large systematic uncertainties involved. (3) The one exception is the U band lags, which are on average a factor of ∼2.2 larger than predicted from the surrounding band data and fits. This excess appears to be due to diffuse continuum emission from the broad-line region (BLR). The precise mixing of disk and BLR components cannot be determined from these data alone. The lags in different AGN appear to scale with mass or luminosity. We also find that there are systematic differences between the uncertainties derived by JAVELIN versus more standard lag measurement techniques, with JAVELIN reporting smaller uncertainties by a factor of 2.5 on average. In order to be conservative only standard techniques were used in the analyses reported herein.

R. Edelson↗

Homogenizing and Estimating the Uncertainty in NOAA's Long-Term Vertical Ozone Profile Records Measured with the Electrochemical Concentration Cell Ozonesonde

NOAA's program of long-term monitoring of the vertical distribution of ozone with electrochemical concentration cell (ECC) ozonesondes has undergone a number of changes over the 50-year record. In order to produce a homogenous data set, these changes must be documented and, where necessary, appropriate corrections applied. This is the first comprehensive and consistent reprocessing of NOAA's ozonesonde data records that corrects for these changes using the rawest form of the data (cell current and pump temperature) in native resolution as well as a point-by-point uncertainty calculation that is unique to each sounding. The reprocessing is carried out uniformly at all eight ozonesonde sites in NOAA's network with differences in sensing solution and ozonesonde types accounted for in the same way at all sites. The corrections used to homogenize the NOAA ozonesonde data records greatly improve the ozonesonde measurements with an average one sigma uncertainty of +/- 4-6% in the stratosphere and +/- 5-20% in the troposphere. A comparison of the integrated column ozone from the ozonesonde profile with co-located Dobson spectrophotometers total column ozone measurements shows agreement within +/- 5% for >70% of the profiles. Very good agreement is also found in the stratosphere between ozonesonde profiles and profiles retrieved from the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) instruments.

ozonesonde↗

A Terrestrial Validation of ICESat Elevation Measurements and Implications for Global Reanalyses

The primary goal of NASA's Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) mission was to detect centimeter-level changes in global ice sheet elevations at the spatial scale of individual ice streams. Confidence in detecting these small signals requires careful validation over time to characterize the uncertainty and stability of measured elevations. A common validation approach compares altimeter elevations to an independently characterized and stable reference surface. Using a digital elevation model (DEM) from geodetic surveys of one such surface, the salar de Uyuni in Bolivia, we show that ICESat elevations at this location have a 0.0-centimeter bias relative to the WGS84 ellipsoid, 4.0-centimeter (1-sigma) uncertainty overall, and 1.8-centimeter uncertainty under ideal conditions over short (50 kilometer) profiles. We observe no elevation bias between ascending and descending orbits, but we do find that elevations measured immediately after transitions from low to high surface albedo may be negatively biased. Previous studies have reported intercampaign biases (ICBs) between various ICESat observation campaigns, but we find no statistically significant ICBs or ICB trends in our data. We do find a previously unreported 3.1-centimeter bias between ICESat's Laser 2 and Laser 3, and we find even larger interlaser biases in reanalyzed data from other studies. For an altimeter with an exact repeat orbit like ICESat, we also demonstrate that validation results with respect to averaged elevation profiles along a single ground track are comparable to results obtained using reference elevations from an in situ survey.

Laser Ranging↗

Uncertainty relations as Hilbert space geometry

Precision measurements involve the accurate determination of parameters through repeated measurements of identically prepared experimental setups. For many parameters there is a 'natural' choice for the quantum observable which is expected to give optimal information; and from this observable one can construct an Heinsenberg uncertainty principle (HUP) bound on the precision attainable for the parameter. However, the classical statistics of multiple sampling directly gives us tools to construct bounds for the precision available for the parameters of interest (even when no obvious natural quantum observable exists, such as for phase, or time); it is found that these direct bounds are more restrictive than those of the HUP. The implication is that the natural quantum observables typically do not encode the optimal information (even for observables such as position, and momentum); we show how this can be understood simply in terms of the Hilbert space geometry. Another striking feature of these bounds to parameter uncertainty is that for a large enough number of repetitions of the measurements all V quantum states are 'minimum uncertainty' states - not just Gaussian wave-packets. Thus, these bounds tell us what precision is achievable as well as merely what is allowed.

Braunstein, Samuel L.↗

Hot and cold body reference noise generators from 0 to 40 GHz

This article describes the design, development, and analysis of exceptionally accurate radiometric noise generators from 0-40 GHz to serve as standard references. Size, weight, power, and reliability are optimized to meet the requirements of NASA air- and space-borne radiometers. The radiometric noise temperature of these noise generators is, unavoidably, calculated from measured values rather than measured directly. The absolute accuracy and stability are equal to or better than those of reliable standards available for comparison. A noise generator has been developed whose measurable properties (VSWR, line loss, thermometric temperatures) have been optimized in order to minimize the effects of the uncertainty in the calculated radiometric noise temperatures. Each measurable property is evaluated and analyzed to determine the effects of the uncertainty of the measured value. Unmeasurable properties (primarily temperature gradients) are analyzed, and reasonable precautions are designed into the noise generator to guarantee that the uncertainty of the value remains within tolerable limits.

Hornbostel, D. H.↗

Effect of Refractive Index Variation on Two-Wavelength Interferometry for Fluid Measurements

Two wavelength interferometry can in principle be used to measure changes in both temperature and concentration in a fluid, but measurement errors may be large if the fluid dispersion is small. This paper quantifies the effects of uncertainties in dn/dT and dn/dC on the measured temperature and concentration when using the simple expression dn = (dn/dT)dT + (dn/dC)dC. For the data analyzed here, ammonium chloride in water from -5 to 10(exp infinity) C over a concentration range of 2-14% and for wavelengths 514.5 and 633 nm, it is shown that the gradients must be known to within 0.015% to produce a modest 10% uncertainty in the measured temperature and concentration. These results show that real care must be taken to ensure the accuracy of refractive index gradients when using two wavelength interferometry for the simultaneous measurement of temperature and concentration.

Mercer, Carolyn R.↗

Uncertainty Error Modeling for Non-Linear State Estimation With Unsynchronized SCADA and µPMU Measurements

Distribution systems of the future smart grid require enhancements to the reliability of distribution system state estimation (DSSE) in the face of low measurement redundancy, unsynchronized measurements, and dynamic load profiles. Micro phasor measurement units (µPMUs) facilitate co-synchronized measurements with high granularity, albeit at an often prohibitively expensive installation cost. Supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) measurements can supplement µPMU data, although they are received at a slower sampling rate. Further complicating matters is the uncertainty associated with load dynamics and unsynchronized measurements–not only are the SCADA and µPMU measurements not synchronized with each other, but the SCADA measurements themselves are received at different time intervals with respect to one another. This paper proposes a non-linear state estimation framework which models dynamic load uncertainty error by updating the variances of the unsynchronized measurements, leading to a time-varying system of weights in the weighted least squares state estimator. Case studies are performed on the 33-Bus Distribution System in MATPOWER, using Ornstein–Uhlenbeck stochastic processes to simulate dynamic load conditions.

Cooper, Austin↗

Improvements in Mirror Surface Measurement with Reflected Computer Vision Targets

Over the last several years, NREL has been developing a system to measure large optical surfaces of heliostat mirrors by reflecting computer vision targets. An advantage of this system, called Reflected Target Nonintrusive Assessment (ReTNA), is that it lends itself well to stitching together many images, each reflecting only part of a larger heliostat. In the last few months, this was taken to a new extreme, with a small target (<5m2) being used to measure a >25m2 long focal length heliostat. These measurements were compared with traditional fringe deflectometry methods, which require a >50m2 target, and photogrammetry. The strengths, weaknesses and limitations of ReTNA are discussed. An estimated uncertainty in this new measurement is presented, along with software improvements and a new wireless data collection system. A bill of materials for this measurement system is presented, which has been designed to use all low-cost, off-the-shelf components. Finally, the next steps for future ReTNA development are presented. Overall, ReTNA can be a valuable optics measurement system, complimentary to existing measurement techniques available for large reflective surfaces.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Measured and predicted root-mean-square errors in square and triangular antenna mesh facets

Deflection shapes of square and equilateral triangular facets of two tricot-knit, gold plated molybdenum wire mesh antenna materials were measured and compared, on the basis of root mean square (rms) differences, with deflection shapes predicted by linear membrane theory, for several cases of biaxial mesh tension. The two mesh materials contained approximately 10 and 16 holes per linear inch, measured diagonally with respect to the course and wale directions. The deflection measurement system employed a non-contact eddy current proximity probe and an electromagnetic distance sensing probe in conjunction with a precision optical level. Despite experimental uncertainties, rms differences between measured and predicted deflection shapes suggest the following conclusions: that replacing flat antenna facets with facets conforming to parabolically curved structural members yields smaller rms surface error; that potential accuracy gains are greater for equilateral triangular facets than for square facets; and that linear membrane theory can be a useful tool in the design of tricot knit wire mesh antennas.

Fichter, W. B.↗

Comparisons of Gas-phase Temperature Measurements in a Flame Using Thin-Filament Pyrometry and Thermocouples

Less-intrusive, fast-responding, and full-field temperature measurements have long been a desired tool for the research community. Recently, the emission of a silicon-carbide (SiC) fiber placed in a flowing hot (or reacting) gas has been used to measure the temperature profile along the length of the fiber. The relationship between the gas and fiber temperature comes from an energy balance on the fiber. In the present work, we compared single point flame temperature measurements using thin-filament pyrometry (TFP) and thermocouples. The data was from vertically traversing a thermocouple and a SiC fiber through a methanol/air diffusion flame of a porous-metal wick burner. The results showed that the gas temperature using the TFP technique agreed with the thermocouple measurements (25.4 m diameter wire) within 3.5% for temperatures above 1200 K. Additionally, we imaged the entire SiC fiber (with a spatial resolution of 0.14 mm) while it was in the flame using a high resolution CCD camera. The intensity level along the fiber length is a function of the temperature. This results in a one-dimensional temperature profiles at various heights above the burner wick. This temperature measurement technique, while having a precision of less than 1 K, showed data scatter as high as 38 K. Finally, we discuss the major sources of uncertainty in gas temperature measurement using TFP.

Struk, Peter↗