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DOE OSTI2021

Discovering Hidden Geothermal Signatures using Unsupervised Machine Learning

Discovering hidden geothermal resources is a very challenging task. It requires the mining of large datasets, including various diverse data attributes representing subsurface hydrogeological and geothermal conditions. The commonly used Play Fairway Analysis (PFA) typically relies on subject-matter expertise to analyze site or regional data to estimate geothermal conditions and prospectivity. Here, we demonstrate an alternative approach based on machine learning (ML) to process a geothermal dataset of Southwest New Mexico (SWNM). The study region includes low- and medium-temperature hydrothermal systems. However, most of these systems are poorly characterized because of insufficient existing data and limited past explorative studies. This study aims to discover hidden patterns and relationships in the SWNM geothermal dataset to better understand regional hydrothermal conditions. This is achieved by applying an unsupervised machine learning algorithm based on non-negative matrix factorization coupled with customized k-means clustering (NMFk). NMFk can automatically identify (1) hidden (latent) signatures characterizing datasets, (2) the optimal number of these signatures, (3) dominant data attributes associated with each signature, and (4) spatial distribution of the extracted signatures. Here, NMFk is applied to analyze 18 geological, geophysical, hydrogeological, geothermal attributes at 44 locations in SWNM. NMFk successfully finds data patterns and identifies the spatial associations of hydrothermal signatures with the four physiographic provinces in SWNM (Colorado Plateau, Volcanic Field, Basin and Range, and the Rio Grande rift). The algorithm identified up to 5 hydrothermal signatures in the SWNM datasets that differentiate between low- and medium-temperature hydrothermal systems in different provinces. Also, the algorithm identifies two medium-temperature hydrothermal systems in SWNM that require further exploration for geothermal resource development. Based on our analyses, 12 of the attributes are important to identify medium-temperature hydrothermal systems, and the remaining six attributes are critical to characterize low-temperature hydrothermal systems. Based on the obtained results, we identify potential physiographic provinces for further exploration to characterize them as geothermal resources. The resulting NMFk model can be applied to predict geothermal conditions and their uncertainties at new SWNM locations based on limited data from unexplored areas.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Program Overview Laboratory Directed Research and Development FY2020 (Annual Report)

Throughout this year’s report, we highlight how the LDRD program invests in ideas that make the world a safer place. We review key accomplishments and performance indicators, and we share snapshots of some of our talented staff. I also encourage you to visit our LDRD website and learn more about the 244 projects that we supported during fiscal year 2020. Looking to the future, I am confident that LDRD investments will continue to help LLNL remain at the forefront of innovative research.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Research in Dark Energy

This is the final report for the project aimed at developing techniques and understanding experimental data within the context of theoretical models, expressly in support of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Universal Utility Data Exchange (UUDEX) – Protocol Design - Rev 1

This design document describes protocol related aspects of Universal Utility Data Exchange (UUDEX). The focus of the design is to describe the interactions between UUDEX Clients and UUDEX Servers in the UUDEX Infrastructure. This design is purposely transport and programming language agnostic.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Improving Coal-Fired Plant Performance Through Integrated Predictive and Condition-Based Monitoring Tools

The project demonstrated the ability to improve boiler performance and reliability through the integrated use of condition-based monitoring (CBM) and predictions of the impacts of coal quality on boiler operations at a full-scale coal-fired power plant. The advanced tool developed actively monitors and manages coal quality and overall boiler conditions that maximizes availability and maintains generating capacity while reducing cost. The tool is used to forecast and alert plant operators and engineers about poor boiler conditions which may occur as a result of incoming coal and/or current power plant operating conditions. The Combustion System Performance Indices (CSPI) and CoalTracker (CT) programs predicts fireside performance of the plant including slagging, fouling, erosion, slag flow, strength development (sintering/densification), and slag layer thickness based on the composition of delivered coal. CT program is tailored for each plant and is used to track the coal from the point of delivery to the burner. The most successful application of the CSPI-CT has been at plants where the coal composition is determined through the use of a full stream elemental analyzers based on prompt gamma neutron analysis (PGNAA). The CSPI-CT program information is used by coal procurement, coal mining and plant operations personnel to select and blend coal properties for the best plant performance.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2021

Transient Efficiency Flexibility and Reliability Optimization of Coal-Fired Power Plants: Model-Predictive Control Library Development (Report)

This document pertains to the reporting requirements of DOE contract FE-0031767. The document covers the development of a model predictive control (MPC) library for implementing MPC for a general dynamic system. The library is implemented in a standardized manner in Matlab/Simulink, where core functions on model prediction, linearization and formulation and solution of a quadratic programming (QP) optimization problem is done in the core library - independent of the specific application. The user can provide the application-specific dynamic model in continuous and discrete time, to rapidly implement and test the MPC performance in a desktop simulation. The MPC optimization objective and constraints are also easily configured via an Excel file to allow iterative refinement as needed. Finally, the MPC library enables a rapid deployment to a target environment through auto C-code generation and containerization. The MPC library works seamlessly with the model based estimation (MBE) library to obtain the overall output feedback control solution. In this program, the reduced order model (ROM) of a coal-fired power plant (CFPP) is used to implement and test the MPC solution.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2022

Summary of Expansions and Updates in GREET ® 2022

The GREET ® (Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies) model has been developed by Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) with the support of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and other federal agencies. GREET is a life cycle analysis (LCA) tool, structured to systematically examine the energy and environmental effects of a wide variety of transportation fuels and vehicle technologies in major transportation sectors (i.e., road, air, marine, and rail) and other end-use sectors, and energy systems. Argonne has expanded and updated the model in various sectors in GREET 2022, and this report provides a summary of the release.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Multi‐Decadal Decarbonization Pathways for U.S. Freight Rail

A‐STEP is a first‐of‐its‐kind, integrated, open‐source software tool aimed at guiding freight rail decarbonization decision‐making. It has tools for studying energy use details for individual trains, networks of trains, battery and hydrogen charging stations, national energy sourcing and pricing, and overall decarbonization costs and environmental impacts. It gives analysts an ability to study the challenges of making such change happen. Completely amenable to analyst specified inputs and parameter values, it can be customized to provide outputs for a wide variety of assumptions about future energy conditions and technological advances. Written in Python, C++, and VB.Net, A‐STEP can be implemented on both Windows and Linux‐based platforms.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

Deploying E3’s RESERVE Tool to Enable Advanced Operation of Clean Grids

Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. (E3) developed an open-source machine learning model, RESERVE, for deriving ancillary services timeseries in deeply decarbonized electricity grids. E3 used a bespoke PLEXOS production simulation model of the California Independent System Operator’s (CAISO) balancing area to validate RESERVE’s ability to enable production cost, greenhouse gas emissions (GHG), and renewable energy curtailment savings. These savings were modeled by comparing PLEXOS cases with RESERVE’s outputs to PLEXOS cases with CAISO’s incumbent reserve product in the Western Energy Imbalance Market (EIM)’s 15-minute market. E3 also tested cases with solar operating flexibly to provide reserves. E3 found that, in a 2030 modeling year, using RESERVE and flexible solar enabled significant production cost, GHG and curtailment savings versus the incumbent CAISO method in cases with low penetrations of lithium-ion batteries. However, with the full 14 gigawatts (about 30% of peak CAISO demand) of 4-hour lithium-ion batteries that are expected to be installed by 2030, these savings approach zero due to batteries saturating ancillary services markets. E3 also found significant savings under a 2019 benchmarking year.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Los Alamos Innovation Enables Carbon-Negative Infrastructure Through an AI Infrastructure Partnership

A material innovation first developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) is now enabling a major step forward in carbon management. Licensed by Spiritus, the technology is being deployed in a $500 million partnership with Prometheus Hyperscale and Casper Carbon Capture to build one of the largest carbon-negative digital infrastructure projects in the world. Located in Casper, Wyoming, the initiative directly integrates permanent carbon removal with advanced computing systems, illustrating how Los Alamos research continues to advance national goals in energy, security, and innovation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Modeling Data Flows with Network Calculus in Cyber-Physical Systems: Enabling Feature Analysis for Anomaly Detection Applications

The electric grid is becoming increasingly cyber-physical with the addition of smart technologies, new communication interfaces, and automated grid-support functions. Because of this, it is no longer sufficient to only study the physical system dynamics, but the cyber system must also be monitored as well to examine cyber-physical interactions and effects on the overall system. To address this gap for both operational and security needs, cyber-physical situational awareness is needed to monitor the system to detect any faults or malicious activity. Techniques and models to understand the physical system (the power system operation) exist, but methods to study the cyber system are needed, which can assist in understanding how the network traffic and changes to network conditions affect applications such as data analysis, intrusion detection systems (IDS), and anomaly detection. In this paper, we examine and develop models of data flows in communication networks of cyber-physical systems (CPSs) and explore how network calculus can be utilized to develop those models for CPSs, with a focus on anomaly and intrusion detection. This provides a foundation for methods to examine how changes to behavior in the CPS can be modeled and for investigating cyber effects in CPSs in anomaly detection applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1973

Diagnostics of sources of disturbances and distribution of vibrations over the width of a tape in tape-feed mechanisms

Disturbances created by certain assemblies and components of tape-feed mechanisms (TFM) and acting on a moving magnetic tape are studied. The method, based on elements of digital logic, is established by stress-strain diagrams of the longitudinal deformations and vibrations across the width of a magnetic tape. Experimental studies were carried out for determination of the functional relationships of longitudinal deformations in a section of magnetic tape to the magnitude of roller play, tension vibrations rate of movement, and elasticity of magnetic tapes. A block diagram of the measurements is shown. Appropriate digital computer algorithms and programs were proposed for statistical analysis of the data obtained. Estimates of the mathematical expectation, dispersion, intercorrelation function, energy spectral density, and distribution pattern of the random process values were calculated.

Kenstavichyus, A. B. B.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Simulation of radiation effects on three-dimensional computer optical memories

A model was developed to simulate the effects of heavy charged-particle (HCP) radiation on the information stored in three-dimensional computer optical memories. The model is based on (i) the HCP track radial dose distribution, (ii) the spatial and temporal distribution of temperature in the track, (iii) the matrix-specific radiation-induced changes that will affect the response, and (iv) the kinetics of transition of photochromic molecules from the colored to the colorless isomeric form (bit flip). It is shown that information stored in a volume of several nanometers radius around the particle's track axis may be lost. The magnitude of the effect is dependent on the particle's track structure.

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS1987

An algorithm for a semiempirical nuclear fragmentation model

In the present paper, an algorithm for HZE (High Charge and Energy) fragmentation based upon a combination of a two step abrasion/ablation model and electromagnetic dissociation is presented. Development of the model and detailed comparison with available experimental data are given elsewhere. The abrasion process accounts for the removal of nuclear matter in the overlap region of the colliding ions. An average transmission factor is used for the projectile and target nuclei at a given impact parameter to account for the finite mean free path in nuclear matter. The ions are treated otherwise on a geometric basis assuming uniform spheres. The ablation process is treated as a single nucleon-evaporation for every 10 MeV of excitation energy as used by Bowman in the original form of the model. The charge distribution of final fragments are calculated according to the Rudstam formula, except for some correction in mass 5, 8 and 9 fragments which show strong structure effects and correspondingly significant deviation from Rudstam's values. The nuclear electromagnetic dissociation is based on the Weizsacker-Williams (WW) method of virtual quanta where due to its simplicity, the virtual photon spectrum for individual multipoles, and finite extent of the charge distribution are not included. Comparisons of the model are made with the available experimental data here and more extensively elsewhere.

NASA Program Space Medicine↗

DOE OSTI2022

Transforming Energy Through Computational Excellence: High-Performance Computing for Energy Innovation

The challenges associated with energy efficiency of manufacturing and advanced materials often cannot be addressed through experimentation alone, whether because of scale, complexity, or practicality. High-performance computing (HPC) enables fast tackling of these challenges in the manufacturing sector - vital to achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and industry partners leverage HPC to apply advanced modeling, simulation, and data analysis to improve manufacturing efficiency, explore new materials for energy applications, and develop technologies to manage carbon across the life cycle. From improving additive manufacturing processes to increasing the energy efficiency of jet-engine components, advanced computing can help manage emissions produced by manufacturing in a wide variety of ways.

advanced materials↗

DOE OSTI2024

LENS: Learning Enabled Network Synthesis

RTRC and UMD have developed novel machine learning based methods under the ARPA-E DIFFERENTIATE program for rapid acceleration of hypothesis generation in complex architecture design spaces involving both discrete choices of component inclusion and interconnection and continuous parametric decisions. The project named Learning Enabled Network Synthesis (LENS) further demonstrated the developed methods on challenging electrical power converter design problems by identifying the most suitable circuit topologies and simultaneously selecting the most appropriate components to achieve optimized design of power converter with improved performances. We demonstrated that LENS could enable exploration of very large design space of circuit topologies and components by addressing the limitations of conventional design process in non-linear, high switching speed, multi-dimensional power converter design and optimization. The key innovation developed in LENS is the seamless integration of statistical learning and logical reasoning techniques and building on the individual strengths of these techniques for rapid hypothesis discovery. The main component of LENS comprises of: 1) Graph Reasoning Engine (GRE) to enforce composition rules that rapidly reject all discrete architectures that are composed incorrectly and generates an adaptive database of feasible designs which can be used by ML modules, 2) Graph Generative Learning module which is a deep neural network based generative model for graph architectures which can enable design space exploration beyond the dataset generated by the GRE, 3) Graph Reduced Order Model (ROM) for graph domains for accelerating computation of output metrics, and 4) Active learning and Rule Discovery module for sample efficient learning and extracting logical rules from the learned ML models which will be integrated in the GRE to enhance the filtering effectiveness. LENS approach can be applied to any design domains where designs can be represented as multi-attribute graphs. The LENS team integrated the various technical innovations listed above into an optimization pipeline and exercised the optimization pipeline on the converter design problem. The LENS project demonstrated that the developed AI/ML technologies can be used to generate novel converter circuits >45x faster than experts on chosen use-cases. This can enable faster design space exploration and identification of new designs which are not considered by experts due to the increasing design space complexity. This has significant potential impact on the public and energy needs of the country. It is currently estimated that 30% of all electrical powers generated passes through power converters. The future estimate is that 80% of all power generated would be passing through converters. LENS fills a critical gap in this space since by accelerating the design process the designers would be able to generate more efficient converters which can lead to significant energy savings for the country.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

From Data to Discovery: AI's Transformative Role in Thin Film Research

The advancement of thin film technologies is pivotal for progress in numerous fields, including energy, electronics, and quantum computing. However, the traditional trial-and-error approach to materials discovery is inherently slow and inefficient. This presentation will showcase how artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming thin film research by enabling a data-driven paradigm shift. We will highlight our past successes in applying AI to understand radiation damage in thin film oxides, demonstrating how graph analytics can unravel complex material behavior. Additionally, we will provide insights into our current work at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, where we are leading the charge in autonomous materials science. Backed by a $14M investment in our characterization facility, we are developing AI-guided workflows that seamlessly integrate experimentation and AI-guided decision-making. By harnessing the power of AI, we aim to accelerate the discovery and design of high-performance thin films, propelling innovation across a multitude of industries.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Estimating the Impacts of Increasing Temperatures and the Efficacy of Climate Adaptation Strategies in Urban Microclimates with Deep Learning

As urbanization and climate change progress, understanding and addressing urban heat becomes a priority for climate adaptation efforts. High temperatures concentrated in the urban core can drive increased risk of heat-related death and illness as well as increased energy demand for cooling. However, modeling the urban microclimate is an ongoing field of research typically burdened by an imprecise description of the built environment, incomplete observational records, significant computational cost, and a lack of high-resolution estimates of the impacts of increasing temperatures. Here, we present computationally efficient machine learning methods that can improve the accuracy of urban temperature estimates when compared to historical reanalysis data. These models are applied to a neighborhood in Los Angeles, and we compare the energy benefits of heat mitigation strategies to the impacts of climate change. We find that cooling demand is likely to increase substantially through midcentury, but engineered high-albedo surfaces could lessen this increase by more than 50 %. The corresponding increase in winter gas heating offsets the summer cooling benefit in the current climate, but total annual energy use from combined heating and cooling with electric heat pumps benefits from the engineered heat mitigation strategies under both current and future climates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗