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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS1998

Estimation of 3-D Cloud Effects on TOMS Satellite Retrieval of Surface UV Irradiance

To improve surface UV irradiance retrieval from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) we simulate errors of the TOMS cloud correction algorithm for summertime broken cloud conditions. Cloud scenes (50 km by 50 km) are modeled by a normal random (Gaussian) field with a fixed lower boundary and conservative scattering. The model relates stochastic field characteristics with the cloud amount, mean cloud diameter and aspect ratio. Clouds are embedded into Rayleigh atmosphere with standard ozone profile. Radiative transfer calculations of the radiance at the top of the atmosphere and irradiance at the surface were performed using 3-D Monte Carlo (MC) code. The results are averaged over the satellite field of view on the surface (50 km by 50 km) and compared with TOMS predicted surface irradiance for the same scene reflectance. The TOMS algorithm assumes horizontally homogeneous Cl-type cloud between 3 km and 5.5 km. The effective optical depth is determined by fitting observed (MC) radiance at 380 nm. Having the same radiance at the satellite the homogeneous and broken cloud models predict different average irradiances at the surface. This is due to the differences in Bidirectional Reflection Distribution Function (BRDF) for homogeneous and broken cloud scenes with the same hemispherical albedo. For typical TOMS observational geometry at mid-latitudes the simulated single pixels errors may be as large as +/- 20%. Qualitatively these errors are due to the dominance of the non-horizontal cloud surfaces, which are not accounted for in the homogeneous cloud model. However, due to high variability of the real cloud shapes and types it is unclear how these single pixel errors would affect TOMS time-integrated UV exposure over extended periods (weeks to months) for different regions.

Krotkov, Nickolay A.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Beyond the 3rd moment: a practical study of using lensing convergence CDFs for cosmology with DES Y3

ABSTRACT Widefield surveys probe clustered scalar fields – such as galaxy counts, lensing potential, etc. – which are sensitive to different cosmological and astrophysical processes. Constraining such processes depends on the statistics that summarize the field. We explore the cumulative distribution function (CDF) as a summary of the galaxy lensing convergence field. Using a suite of N-body light-cone simulations, we show the CDFs’ constraining power is modestly better than the second and third moments, as CDFs approximately capture information from all moments. We study the practical aspects of applying CDFs to data, using the Dark Energy Survey (DES Y3) data as an example, and compute the impact of different systematics on the CDFs. The contributions from the point spread function and reduced shear approximation are $\lesssim 1~{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ of the total signal. Source clustering effects and baryon imprints contribute 1–10 per cent. Enforcing scale cuts to limit systematics-driven biases in parameter constraints degrade these constraints a noticeable amount, and this degradation is similar for the CDFs and the moments. We detect correlations between the observed convergence field and the shape noise field at 13σ. The non-Gaussian correlations in the noise field must be modelled accurately to use the CDFs, or other statistics sensitive to all moments, as a rigorous cosmology tool.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Microscopic dynamics underlying the stress relaxation of arrested soft materials

Arrested soft materials such as gels and glasses exhibit a slow stress relaxation with a broad distribution of relaxation times in response to linear mechanical perturbations. Although this macroscopic stress relaxation is an essential feature in the application of arrested systems as structural materials, consumer products, foods, and biological materials, the microscopic origins of this relaxation remain poorly understood. Here, we elucidate the microscopic dynamics underlying the stress relaxation of such arrested soft materials under both quiescent and mechanically perturbed conditions through X-ray photon correlation spectroscopy. By studying the dynamics of a model associative gel system that undergoes dynamical arrest in the absence of aging effects, we show that the mean stress relaxation time measured from linear rheometry is directly correlated to the quiescent superdiffusive dynamics of the microscopic clusters, which are governed by a buildup of internal stresses during arrest. We also show that perturbing the system via small mechanical deformations can result in large intermittent fluctuations in the form of avalanches, which give rise to a broad non-Gaussian spectrum of relaxation modes at short times that is observed in stress relaxation measurements. These findings suggest that the linear viscoelastic stress relaxation in arrested soft materials may be governed by nonlinear phenomena involving an interplay of internal stress relaxations and perturbation-induced intermittent avalanches.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2001

Optimal firing rate estimation

We define a measure for evaluating the quality of a predictive model of the behavior of a spiking neuron. This measure, information gain per spike (Is), indicates how much more information is provided by the model than if the prediction were made by specifying the neuron's average firing rate over the same time period. We apply a maximum Is criterion to optimize the performance of Gaussian smoothing filters for estimating neural firing rates. With data from bullfrog vestibular semicircular canal neurons and data from simulated integrate-and-fire neurons, the optimal bandwidth for firing rate estimation is typically similar to the average firing rate. Precise timing and average rate models are limiting cases that perform poorly. We estimate that bullfrog semicircular canal sensory neurons transmit in the order of 1 bit of stimulus-related information per spike.

NASA Discipline Neuroscience↗
NASA NTRS2001

Ion Energy and Ion Flux Distributions of CF4/Ar/O2 Inductively Coupled Plasmas in a GEC Cell

Knowledge of ion kinetics in plasma processing gas mixtures, such as CF4:Ar:O2, is important for understanding plasma assisted etching and deposition of materials. Ion energies and ion fluxes were measured in this mixture for 80:10:10, 60:20:20, and 40:30:30 mixture ratios in the pressure range of 10-50 mTorr, and at 200 and 300 W of RF power. Ions from plasma, sampled through a 10 micron orifice in the center of the lower plane electrode, were energy and mass analyzed by a combination of electrostatic energy and quadrupole mass filters. CFx(+) (x = 1 - 3), F2(+), F(+), C(+) from CF4, Ar(+) from Ar, and O2(+) and O(+) from O2, and by-product ions SiFx(+)(x = 1 - 3) from etching of quartz coupling window, COFx(+)(x = 1 - 3), CO(+), CO2(+), and OF(+) were detected. In all conditions ion flux decreases with increase of pressure but increase with increase of RF power. Ar(+) signal decreases with increase of pressure while CF3(+), which is the dominant ion at all conditions, increases with increase in pressure. The loss mechanism for Ar(+) and increase of CF3(+) is due to large cross section for Ar(+) + CF4 yields Ar + CF3(+) + F. Ion energies, which range from 15-25 eV depending on plasma operating conditions, are nearly Gaussian. By-product ion signals are higher at lower pressures indicating stronger plasma interaction with quartz window.

Rao, M. V. V. S.↗
NASA NTRS2025

Direct Numerical Simulation of Flow Past a Gaussian Bump at a High Reynolds Number

We present the results from a direct numerical simulation of a spanwise-periodic turbulent flow past a Gaussian bump. The problem setup is designed to investigate the interaction of an incoming turbulent boundary layer with the strong favorable and adverse pressure gradients generated by the Gaussian bump as the flow passes over it at a Reynolds number of 340000 based on the bump height, or 4 million based on the bump length. The statistical results from the present simulation are compared against our earlier results at a Reynolds number of 2 million. An internal layer, which forms beneath the strongly accelerated boundary layer over the windward side of the bump, is found to generate its near-wall turbulence stress peaks in closer proximity of the wall in the higher Reynolds-number case. Furthermore, the logarithmic layer of the higher Reynolds-number boundary layer appears more resistant to changes induced by strong acceleration and surface curvature effects over the same region. Despite a nearly identical flow separation point in the two flows, the detached shear layer grows at a faster rate and subsequently reattaches at an earlier point in the higher Reynolds-number flow. The surface pressure and skin-friction distributions over the attached flow region compare well against the corresponding experimental data for both flows. However, some differences appear in the separated flow region, which are attributed to the three-dimensionality of the experimental model setup that is not included in the simulation owing to the spanwise periodic assumption. Comparisons with the stereoscopic particle image velocimetry measurements on the central plane of the experimental model over the windward side of the bump show reasonable overall agreement in the mean velocity components, but the turbulence stress components do not agree well at some streamwise locations. Comparisons over the leeward side of the bump show that the mean separated shear layer in the simulation is tilted significantly more toward the wall than the experimental shear layer on the central plane. This mismatch in the mean shear layer orientation is due to the experimental model three-dimensionality and tunnel end-wall effects, which are not modeled in the present spanwise-periodic simulation.

Favorable and Adverse Pressure Gradients↗
DOE OSTI2023

A group finder algorithm optimised for the study of local galaxy environments

Context. The majority of galaxy group catalogues available in the literature use the popular friends-of-friends algorithm which links galaxies using a linking length. One potential drawback to this approach is that clusters of points can be linked with thin bridges which may not be desirable. In order to study galaxy groups, it is important to obtain realistic group structures. Aim. Here, in this study, we present a new simple group finder algorithm, TD-ENCLOSER, that finds the group that encloses a target galaxy of interest. Methods. TD-ENCLOSER is based on the kernel density estimation method which treats each galaxy, represented by a zero-dimensional particle, as a two-dimensional circular Gaussian. The algorithm assigns galaxies to peaks in the density field in order of density in descending order (‘top down’) so that galaxy groups ‘grow’ around the density peaks. Outliers in under-dense regions are prevented from joining groups by a specified hard threshold, while outliers at the group edges are clipped below a soft (blurred) interior density level. Results. The group assignments are largely insensitive to all free parameter variations apart from the hard density threshold and the kernel standard deviation, although this is a known feature of density-based group finder algorithms and it operates with a computing speed that increases linearly with the size of the input sample. In preparation for a companion paper, we also present a simple algorithm to select unique representative groups when duplicates occur. Conclusions. TD-ENCLOSER is tested on a mock galaxy catalogue using a smoothing scale of 0.3 Mpc and is found to be able to recover the input group distribution with sufficient accuracy to be applied to observed galaxy distributions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Suppressing the sample variance of DESI-like galaxy clustering with fast simulations

Ongoing and upcoming galaxy redshift surveys, such as the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) survey, will observe vast regions of sky and a wide range of redshifts. In order to model the observations and address various systematic uncertainties, N-body simulations are routinely adopted, however, the number of large simulations with sufficiently high mass resolution is usually limited by available computing time. Therefore, achieving a simulation volume with the effective statistical errors significantly smaller than those of the observations becomes prohibitively expensive. In this study, we apply the Convergence Acceleration by Regression and Pooling (CARPool) method to mitigate the sample variance of the DESI-like galaxy clustering in the AbacusSummit simulations, with the assistance of the quasi-N-body simulations FastPM. Based on the halo occupation distribution (HOD) models, we construct different FastPM galaxy catalogs, including the luminous red galaxies (LRGs), emission line galaxies (ELGs), and quasars, with their number densities and two-point clustering statistics well matched to those of AbacusSummit. We also employ the same initial conditions between AbacusSummit and FastPM to achieve high cross-correlation, as it is useful in effectively suppressing the variance. Our method of reducing noise in clustering is equivalent to performing a simulation with volume larger by a factor of 5 and 4 for LRGs and ELGs, respectively. We also mitigate the standard deviation of the LRG bispectrum with the triangular configurations k 2 = 2k 1 = 0.2 h Mpc -1 by a factor of 1.6. With smaller sample variance on galaxy clustering, we are able to constrain the baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) scale parameters to higher precision. The CARPool method will be beneficial to better constrain the theoretical systematics of BAO, redshift space distortions (RSD) and primordial non-Gaussianity (NG).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

The XRISM first-light observation: Velocity structure and thermal properties of the supernova remnant N 132D

Abstract We present an initial analysis of the X-Ray Imaging and Spectroscopy Mission (XRISM) first-light observation of the supernova remnant (SNR) N 132D in the Large Magellanic Cloud. The Resolve microcalorimeter has obtained the first high-resolution spectrum in the 1.6–10 keV band, which contains K-shell emission lines of Si, S, Ar, Ca, and Fe. We find that the Si and S lines are relatively narrow, with a broadening represented by a Gaussian-like velocity dispersion of $\sigma _v \sim 450$ km s$^{-1}$. However, the Fe He$\alpha$ lines are substantially broadened with $\sigma _v \sim 1670$ km s$^{-1}$. This broadening can be explained by a combination of the thermal Doppler effect due to the high ion temperature and the kinematic Doppler effect due to the SNR expansion. Assuming that the Fe He$\alpha$ emission originates predominantly from the supernova ejecta, we estimate the reverse shock velocity at the time when the bulk of the Fe ejecta were shock heated to be $-1000 \lesssim V_{\rm rs}$ (km s$^{-1}$) $\lesssim 3300$ (in the observer frame). We also find that Fe Ly$\alpha$ emission is redshifted with a bulk velocity of $\sim 890$ km s$^{-1}$, substantially larger than the radial velocity of the local interstellar medium surrounding N 132D. These results demonstrate that high-resolution X-ray spectroscopy is capable of providing constraints on the evolutionary stage, geometry, and velocity distribution of SNRs.

individual objects↗
DOE OSTI2022

Interpolating between small- and large-$\mathscr{g}$ expansions using Bayesian model mixing

Bayesian model mixing (BMM) is a statistical technique that can be used to combine models that are predictive in different input domains into a composite distribution that has improved predictive power over the entire input space. We explore the application of BMM to the mixing of two expansions of a function of a coupling constant $\mathscr{g}$ that are valid at small and large values of $\mathscr{g}$ respectively. This type of problem is quite common in nuclear physics, where physical properties are straightforwardly calculable in strong and weak interaction limits or at low and high densities or momentum transfers, but difficult to calculate in between. Interpolation between these limits is often accomplished by a suitable interpolating function, e.g., Padé approximants, but it is then unclear how to quantify the uncertainty of the interpolant. We address this problem in the simple context of the partition function of zero-dimensional Φ 4 theory, for which the (asymptotic) expansion at small $\mathscr{g}$ and the (convergent) expansion at large $\mathscr{g}$ are both known. We consider three mixing methods: linear mixture BMM, localized bivariate BMM, and localized multivariate BMM with Gaussian processes. Here, we find that employing a Gaussian process in the intermediate region between the two predictive models leads to the best results of the three methods. The methods and validation strategies we present here should be generalizable to other nuclear physics settings.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Real-time Intrusion Detection for High-bandwidth Research Networks using Unsupervised Deep Learning

Nowadays, data generated by large-scale scientific experiments are on the scale of petabytes per month. These data are transferred through dedicated high-bandwidth networks across distributed collaboration sites for processing, storage, and analysis. Like general purpose networks, research networks experience attacks. However, monitoring traffic in such high-bandwidth network environments is challenging with conventional deep packet inspection (DPI)- based network intrusion detection systems (NIDS). Recently, machine learning (ML) algorithms have shown potential in detecting anomalous patterns with better generalizability and faster speed. Compared to the general purpose networks, traffic movement in research network is less volatile and more likely to benefit from the ML-based anomaly analysis. We present ThunderSecure, an efficient AI-powered system for detecting anomalies in 100G research networks. ThunderSecure implements a high-throughput packet processing infrastructure using multi-cores and GPUs. It takes time-series statistics from a variety of network measurements and uses 2D Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to explore both spatial and temporal dependencies in network data stream. Patterns of science data traffic are learned with a one-class neural network, which blends an Adversarial Autoencoder (AAE) with Gaussian mixture density estimation. Testing traffic flows exhibiting significant deviations from the learned baseline of normality are marked as anomalies. We trained ThunderSecure on hundreds of billions of science data packets recorded from a 100G research network at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory. The detection performance was evaluated on traffic captured from the same research network days and weeks after the training with different types of attack flows injected. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first ML work in the area of network anomaly detection that has been validated on such extreme scale datasets. Results show that ThunderSecure can recognize science data traffic that are captured long after the training and make nearly certain detection on those with anomalous flows injected, even in the case when the anomaly-to-normal mixing ratio is 0.1%.

Gong, Qian↗
DOE OSTI2021

The SAMI Galaxy Survey: stellar population and structural trends across the Fundamental Plane

ABSTRACT We study the Fundamental Plane (FP) for a volume- and luminosity-limited sample of 560 early-type galaxies from the SAMI survey. Using r-band sizes and luminosities from new multi-Gaussian expansion photometric measurements, and treating luminosity as the dependent variable, the FP has coefficients a = 1.294 ± 0.039, b = 0.912 ± 0.025, and zero-point c = 7.067 ± 0.078. We leverage the high signal-to-noise ratio of SAMI integral field spectroscopy, to determine how structural and stellar population observables affect the scatter about the FP. The FP residuals correlate most strongly (8σ significance) with luminosity-weighted simple stellar population (SSP) age. In contrast, the structural observables surface mass density, rotation-to-dispersion ratio, Sérsic index, and projected shape all show little or no significant correlation. We connect the FP residuals to the empirical relation between age (or stellar mass-to-light ratio Υ⋆ ) and surface mass density, the best predictor of SSP age amongst parameters based on FP observables. We show that the FP residuals (anti)correlate with the residuals of the relation between surface density and Υ⋆ . This correlation implies that part of the FP scatter is due to the broad age and Υ⋆ distribution at any given surface mass density. Using virial mass and Υ⋆, we construct a simulated FP and compare it to the observed FP. We find that, while the empirical relations between observed stellar population relations and FP observables are responsible for most (75 per cent) of the FP scatter, on their own they do not explain the observed tilt of the FP away from the virial plane.

D’Eugenio, Francesco↗
DOE OSTI2026

Measurement of the galaxy-velocity power spectrum of DESI tracers with the kinematic Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect using DESI DR2 and ACT DR6

Joint analyses of high-resolution CMB temperature maps with galaxy surveys provide a unique way to reconstruct the radial velocity field of the underlying matter distribution via the kinematic Sunyaev-Zeldovich (kSZ) effect. Using data from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) DR6 and the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) DR2, we present radial velocity reconstructions for luminous red galaxies (LRGs), emission-line galaxies (ELGs), and quasars (QSOs). Leveraging the spectroscopic data, we are able to reliably model the foreground contamination and report a negligible impact on our main observables. We detect the velocity-galaxy cross-correlation at $17.0σ$ for LRGs, and for the first time, at $8.3σ$ for ELGs and $6.8σ$ for QSOs. We further report the first detection of the velocity-velocity correlation using LRGs at $3.1σ$, as well as the highest cumulative detection of the kSZ effect to date at $20.8 σ$. Similarly to previous results, we find a lower amplitude of the kSZ signal compared to our fiducial halo model prediction and electron profile assuming a Battaglia profile. Combining these new observables, we obtain constraints on local-type primordial non-Gaussianity (PNG): $f_{\rm NL}^{\rm loc} = 15.9_{-34.4}^{+34.6}$ at 68% confidence, which represents the tightest constraint to date derived from the velocity field. The measurements presented here already exhibit lower noise on a per-mode basis than the galaxy auto-correlation on the largest scales, $k<0.004~\rm{Mpc^{-1}}$, highlighting the key role these observables will play in the context of future CMB experiments such as the Simons Observatory.

Chaussidon, Edmond [LBL, Berkeley] (ORCID:00000001↗
DOE OSTI2022

Functional Data Analysis for Extracting the Intrinsic Dimensionality of Spectra: Application to Chemical Homogeneity in the Open Cluster M67

High-resolution spectroscopic surveys of the Milky Way have entered the Big Data regime and have opened avenues for solving outstanding questions in Galactic archeology. However, exploiting their full potential is limited by complex systematics, whose characterization has not received much attention in modern spectroscopic analyses. In this work, we present a novel method to disentangle the component of spectral data space intrinsic to the stars from that due to systematics. Using functional principal component analysis on a sample of 18,933 giant spectra from APOGEE, we find that the intrinsic structure above the level of observational uncertainties requires ≈10 functional principal components (FPCs). Our FPCs can reduce the dimensionality of spectra, remove systematics, and impute masked wavelengths, thereby enabling accurate studies of stellar populations. To demonstrate the applicability of our FPCs, we use them to infer stellar parameters and abundances of 28 giants in the open cluster M67. We employ Sequential Neural Likelihood, a simulation-based Bayesian inference method that learns likelihood functions using neural density estimators, to incorporate non-Gaussian effects in spectral likelihoods. By hierarchically combining the inferred abundances, we limit the spread of the following elements in M67: Fe ≲ 0.02 dex; C ≲ 0.03 dex; O, Mg, Si, Ni ≲ 0.04 dex; Ca ≲ 0.05 dex; N, Al ≲ 0.07 dex (at 68% confidence). Our constraints suggest a lack of self-pollution by core-collapse supernovae in M67, which has promising implications for the future of chemical tagging to understand the star formation history and dynamical evolution of the Milky Way.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Addressing Experimental Challenges in Probing Dark Energy with Accuracy and Precision with the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space & Time (LSST)

With support from this award, the Stanford group under the leadership of PI Patricia Burchat focused on pixel-level algorithms that are key to the investigation of dark energy with the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). The work was carried out through strong engagement in the DOE-supported LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC), for which the PI served as Deputy Spokesperson (07/2019 - 07/2021) and Technical Coordinator (07/2021 - 07/2023). Members of the Burchat group are Full DESC members and are among scientists who have been accepted to join the Rubin Observatory System Integration, Test, and Commissioning (SIT-Com) effort. The specific intellectual focus of the group was the optimization of gravitational lensing as a probe of the evolution of the distribution of dark matter in space and time to learn about the nature of dark energy. The Stanford group pursued an integrated research program to understand in detail, and then remediate or calibrate, systematic effects that could limit the sensitivity of the LSST to cosmic shear as a dark energy probe -- particularly those related to our understanding of the atmospheric point spread function (PSF), challenges associated with blended galaxy images, and impacts of residual camera artifacts. Key to this work was developing, enhancing, and validating the fidelity of simulations that play a key role in the development of our understanding of subtle systematic biases and then using these simulations to develop techniques to characterize and mitigate biases, and associated algorithms for implementation in the LSST or DESC science pipelines. The group’s work included contributions to the open-source GalSim simulation package, which is widely used in the community; simulations and studies of spatial correlations of atmospheric PSFs; studies of temporal correlations of the atmospheric PSF; impacts of chromatic PSFs on cosmic shear calibration; continued studies of anisotropic Gaussian process interpolation of PSF models across the focal plane; and measuring and mitigating impacts of residual camera artifacts on cosmic shear. A primary impact of this work is that it increases the scientific discovery potential of the DOE and NSF investments in the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space \& Time, by addressing challenges in interpreting astronomical images through more accurate descriptions of the blurring of images due to the atmosphere. Specifically, this work impacts our ability to understand the fundamental nature of dark energy.

Burchat, Patricia Rose↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Aemulus Project. VI. Emulation of Beyond-standard Galaxy Clustering Statistics to Improve Cosmological Constraints

Abstract There is untapped cosmological information in galaxy redshift surveys in the nonlinear regime. In this work, we use the Aemulus suite of cosmological N -body simulations to construct Gaussian process emulators of galaxy clustering statistics at small scales (0.1–50 h −1 Mpc) in order to constrain cosmological and galaxy bias parameters. In addition to standard statistics—the projected correlation function w p ( r p ), the redshift-space monopole of the correlation function ξ 0 ( s ), and the quadrupole ξ 2 ( s )—we emulate statistics that include information about the local environment, namely the underdensity probability function P U ( s ) and the density-marked correlation function M ( s ). This extends the model of Aemulus III for redshift-space distortions by including new statistics sensitive to galaxy assembly bias. In recovery tests, we find that the beyond-standard statistics significantly increase the constraining power on cosmological parameters of interest: including P U ( s ) and M ( s ) improves the precision of our constraints on Ω m by 27%, σ 8 by 19%, and the growth of structure parameter, f σ 8 , by 12% compared to standard statistics. We additionally find that scales below ∼6 h −1 Mpc contain as much information as larger scales. The density-sensitive statistics also contribute to constraining halo occupation distribution parameters and a flexible environment-dependent assembly bias model, which is important for extracting the small-scale cosmological information as well as understanding the galaxy–halo connection. This analysis demonstrates the potential of emulating beyond-standard clustering statistics at small scales to constrain the growth of structure as a test of cosmic acceleration.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2013

Inflation Physics from the Cosmic Microwave Background and Large Scale Structure

Fluctuations in the intensity and polarization of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) and the large-scale distribution of matter in the universe each contain clues about the nature of the earliest moments of time. The next generation of CMB and large-scale structure (LSS) experiments are poised to test the leading paradigm for these earliest moments---the theory of cosmic inflation---and to detect the imprints of the inflationary epoch, thereby dramatically increasing our understanding of fundamental physics and the early universe. A future CMB experiment with sufficient angular resolution and frequency coverage that surveys at least 1 of the sky to a depth of 1 uK-arcmin can deliver a constraint on the tensor-to-scalar ratio that will either result in a 5-sigma measurement of the energy scale of inflation or rule out all large-field inflation models, even in the presence of foregrounds and the gravitational lensing B-mode signal. LSS experiments, particularly spectroscopic surveys such as the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument, will complement the CMB effort by improving current constraints on running of the spectral index by up to a factor of four, improving constraints on curvature by a factor of ten, and providing non-Gaussianity constraints that are competitive with the current CMB bounds.

theoretical paradigm↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic projections of the Amery Ice Shelf catchment, Antarctica, under conditions of high ice-shelf basal melt

Abstract. Antarctica's Lambert Glacier drains about one-sixth of the ice from the East Antarctic Ice Sheet and is considered stable due to the strong buttressing provided by the Amery Ice Shelf. While previous projections of the sea-level contribution from this sector of the ice sheet have predicted significant mass loss only with near-complete removal of the ice shelf, the ocean warming necessary for this was deemed unlikely. Recent climate projections through 2300 indicate that sufficient ocean warming is a distinct possibility after 2100. This work explores the impact of parametric uncertainty on projections of the response of the Lambert–Amery system (hereafter “the Amery sector”) to abrupt ocean warming through Bayesian calibration of a perturbed-parameter ice-sheet model ensemble. We address the computational cost of uncertainty quantification for ice-sheet model projections via statistical emulation, which employs surrogate models for fast and inexpensive parameter space exploration while retaining critical features of the high-fidelity simulations. To this end, we build Gaussian process (GP) emulators from simulations of the Amery sector at a medium resolution (4–20 km mesh) using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS)-Albany Land Ice (MALI) model. We consider six input parameters that control basal friction, ice stiffness, calving, and ice-shelf basal melting. From these, we generate 200 perturbed input parameter initializations using space filling Sobol sampling. For our end-to-end probabilistic modeling workflow, we first train emulators on the simulation ensemble and then calibrate the input parameters using observations of the mass balance, grounding line movement, and calving front movement with priors assigned via expert knowledge. Next, we use MALI to project a subset of simulations to 2300 using ocean and atmosphere forcings from a climate model for both low- and high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios. From these simulation outputs, we build multivariate emulators by combining GP regression with principal component dimension reduction to emulate multivariate sea-level contribution time series data from the MALI simulations. We then use these emulators to propagate uncertainty from model input parameters to predictions of glacier mass loss through 2300, demonstrating that the calibrated posterior distributions have both greater mass loss and reduced variance compared to the uncalibrated prior distributions. Parametric uncertainty is large enough through about 2130 that the two projections under different emission scenarios are indistinguishable from one another. However, after rapid ocean warming in the first half of the 22nd century, the projections become statistically distinct within decades. Overall, this study demonstrates an efficient Bayesian calibration and uncertainty propagation workflow for ice-sheet model projections and identifies the potential for large sea-level rise contributions from the Amery sector of the Antarctic Ice Sheet after 2100 under high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗