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DOE OSTI2026

Integrating Maximum Entropy Production Theory and Machine Learning to Improve Global Evapotranspiration Modeling

Accurate estimation of terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) is vital for understanding global water and energy cycles. However, current global ET estimations are not well constrained. This study introduces an integrated framework combining the Maximum Entropy Production (MEP) theory with Random Forest (RF) model to improve global ET estimation. Specifically, in contrast to direct ET estimation by the RF model, the integrated framework (MEP‐RF) trains to predict error of MEP‐simulated ET. MEP‐RF outperforms RF in spatiotemporal extrapolation. Attribution analysis with in situ observations reveals that the inputs of MEP are the most critical variables for the ET process, including net radiation, vegetated area, soil moisture, and surface temperature. We further drive MEP‐RF with global reanalysis and satellite data sets of these four inputs, yielding a global mean terrestrial ET of 548 mm/year, with 77% attributed to transpiration. The global ET increased at a rate of 0.85 mm/year per year during 2003–2021, primarily due to vegetation greening rather than rising temperature, while decreasing soil moisture led to decreasing regional ET. The integrated framework provides a novel approach for the estimation of global ET without the need for hard‐to‐obtain and thus uncertain inputs, such as wind speed, surface roughness, aerodynamic and canopy stomatal resistance. Therefore, MEP‐RF offers an independent method on existing global ET products. It represents a promising physically based approach that can be incorporated into Earth System Models to enhance water and energy cycle simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Structure-aware graph neural network based deep transfer learning framework for enhanced predictive analytics on diverse materials datasets

Abstract Modern data mining methods have demonstrated effectiveness in comprehending and predicting materials properties. An essential component in the process of materials discovery is to know which material(s) will possess desirable properties. For many materials properties, performing experiments and density functional theory computations are costly and time-consuming. Hence, it is challenging to build accurate predictive models for such properties using conventional data mining methods due to the small amount of available data. Here we present a framework for materials property prediction tasks using structure information that leverages graph neural network-based architecture along with deep-transfer-learning techniques to drastically improve the model’s predictive ability on diverse materials (3D/2D, inorganic/organic, computational/experimental) data. We evaluated the proposed framework in cross-property and cross-materials class scenarios using 115 datasets to find that transfer learning models outperform the models trained from scratch in 104 cases, i.e., ≈90%, with additional benefits in performance for extrapolation problems. We believe the proposed framework can be widely useful in accelerating materials discovery in materials science.

Chemistry↗

NASA NTRS1986

Cascade model of coronal heating

It is suggested that the quasi-static evolution of coronal magnetic structures is characterized by a cascade of magnetic energy to smaller length scales. This cascade process takes place on a time scale t sub b determined entirely by the photospheric motions. The Ohmic heating rate E sub H in the statistically stationary state was estimated using observational data on the diffusivity of photospheric motions; E sub H turned out to be too small by a factor of 40 when compared with observed coronal energy losses. However, given the fact that the theoretical estimate is based on a rather uncertain extrapolation to the diffusive regime, current heating cannot be ruled out as a viable mechanism of coronal heating.

Vanballegooijen, A. A.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Experiments on neural network architectures for fuzzy logic

The use of fuzzy logic to model and manage uncertainty in a rule-based system places high computational demands on an inference engine. In an earlier paper, the authors introduced a trainable neural network structure for fuzzy logic. These networks can learn and extrapolate complex relationships between possibility distributions for the antecedents and consequents in the rules. Here, the power of these networks is further explored. The insensitivity of the output to noisy input distributions (which are likely if the clauses are generated from real data) is demonstrated as well as the ability of the networks to internalize multiple conjunctive clause and disjunctive clause rules. Since different rules with the same variables can be encoded in a single network, this approach to fuzzy logic inference provides a natural mechanism for rule conflict resolution.

Keller, James M.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Quantification of contaminants associated with LDEF

The quantification of contaminants on the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) and associated hardware or tools is addressed. The purpose of this study was to provide a background data base for the evaluation of the surface of the LDEF and the effects of orbital exposure on that surface. This study necessarily discusses the change in the distribution of contaminants on the LDEF with time and environmental exposure. Much of this information may be of value for the improvement of contamination control procedures during ground based operations. The particulate data represents the results of NASA contractor monitoring as well as the results of samples collected and analyzed by the authors. The data from the tapelifts collected in the Space Shuttle Bay at Edwards Air Force Base and KSC are also presented. The amount of molecular film distributed over the surface of the LDEF is estimated based on measurements made at specific locations and extrapolated over the surface area of the LDEF. Some consideration of total amount of volatile-condensible materials available to form the resultant deposit is also presented. All assumptions underlying these estimates are presented along with the rationale for the conclusions. Each section is presented in a subsection for particles and another for molecular films.

Crutcher, E. R.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Remote sensing of wetland biomass and productivity for global biosystem research

The study of ecosystem function and the contributions of particular ecosystems to global elemental cycling will require data collection from orbital platforms. Presently used ground sampling techniques are not adequate for large area vegetation assessments. The research was directed toward an understanding of the relationship between spectral radiance and plant canopy biomass. Changes in the architecture of the canopy alters the observed spectral radiance patterns. The green components of a plant canopy interacts most strongly with incident radiation and usually reflect edaphic conditions as they relate to plant vigor. Plant biomass serves as an excellent integrator of the environmental factors encountered by the plant and can be used as an indicator for predicting soil redox, nutrient status, microbial activity, etc. The use was examined of TM spectral data to discriminate biomass classes and, in turn, to relate the biomass classes to the chemical status of the soil. Several preliminary studies have indicated that solar angle can be used to improve biomass predictions. This important observation also suggests that latitudinal extrapolation of the biomass predicting models will be possible if selected characteristics of the incident radiation are known.

Hardisky, M. A.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Osmium Isotope and Highly Siderophile Element Compositions of Lunar Orange and Green Glasses

The absolute and relative abundances of the highly siderophile elements (HSE) present in planetary mantles are primarily controlled by: 1) silicate-metal partitioning during core-mantle differentiation, 2) the subsequent addition of HSE to mantles via continued planetary accretion. Consequently, constraints on the absolute and relative abundances of the HSE in the lunar mantle will provide unique insights to the formation and late accretionary history of not only the Moon, but also Earth. Determining the HSE content of the lunar mantle, however, has proven difficult, because no bona fide mantle rocks have been collected from the moon. The only materials presently available for constraining mantle abundances are lunar volcanic rocks. Lunar basalts typically have very low concentrations of HSE and highly fractionated HSE patterns. Because of our extremely limited understanding of mantle melt partitioning of the HSE, even for terrestrial systems, extrapolations to mantle compositions from basaltic compositions are difficult, except possibly for the less compatible HSE Pt and Pd. Primitive, presumably less fractionated materials, such as picritic glasses are potentially more diagnostic of the lunar interior. Here we report Os isotopic composition data and Re, Os, Ir, Ru, Pt and Pd concentration data for green glass (15426,164) and orange glass (74001,1217). As with previous studies utilizing neutron activation analysis, we are examining different size fractions of the spherules to assess the role of surface condensation in the generation of the HSE abundances.

Walker, R. J.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Effects of 5 weeks of lower limb suspension on muscle size and strength

Lack of weight-bearing, as occurs in space, appears to be associated with reductions in strength and mass of skeletal muscle. Very limited data, however, is at hand describing changes in skeletal muscle size and function following manned space missions. Our current knowledge therefore is mainly based on studies of space flown rats. It is obvious though that this information, only in part can be extrapolated to humans. A few bed rest studies have demonstrated that decreases in strength and muscle size are substantial. At this time, however, the magnitude or time course of such changes either in response to space flight or simulations of microgravity have not been defined. In the last few years we have employed a human model to simulate unloading of lower limb skeletal muscles that occurs in microgravity. This model was essentially adopted from the rat hindlimb suspension technique. The purpose of this study was to assess the magnitude of decreases in muscle strength and size as a result of five weeks of unilateral lower limb suspension.

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS2022

Vertical Structure in Phytoplankton Growth and Productivity Inferred From Biogeochemical-Argo Floats and the Carbon-Based Productivity Model

Estimates of marine net primary production (NPP) commonly rely on limited in situ 14C incubations or satellite-based algorithms mainly constrained to the surface ocean. Here we combine data from biogeochemical Argo floats with a carbon-based productivity model (CbPM) to compute vertically-resolved estimates of NPP. Inferred NPP profiles derived by informing the CbPM with float-based, depth-resolved, bio-optical data are able to qualitatively reproduce the vertical structure in NPP inferred from in situ 14C incubations at various ocean regions. At station ALOHA, float-based estimates agree within uncertainty with productivity observations at depth, but underestimate surface NPP. We test the ability of the CbPM to infer the depth-resolved structure in NPP from bio-optical properties in the mixed layer, in similar fashion as how remote sensing algorithms of ocean productivity operate. In Southern Ocean waters, the depth-reconstructing implementation of the CbPM overestimates phytoplankton division rates and Chl:C below the mixed layer, resulting in artificially high subsurface NPP when compared with the fully float-informed implementation of the model. The CbPM subsurface extrapolation of phytoplankton Chl, Chl:C division rates, and NPP improves by accounting for deep nutrient (iron) stress impacts on photoacclimation in the Southern Ocean. This improvement is also observed in vertically- integrated NPP, where the mean bias between model implementations in depth-integrated productivity south of 30◦S is reduced by 62 % when account for deep iron limitation. Our results demonstrate that profiling data from biogeochemical Argo floats can serve to inform regional adjustments that lead to the improvement of marine productivity algorithms.

NPP↗

NASA NTRS2004

Investigation of Navier-Stokes Code Verification and Design Optimization

With rapid progress made in employing computational techniques for various complex Navier-Stokes fluid flow problems, design optimization problems traditionally based on empirical formulations and experiments are now being addressed with the aid of computational fluid dynamics (CFD). To be able to carry out an effective CFD-based optimization study, it is essential that the uncertainty and appropriate confidence limits of the CFD solutions be quantified over the chosen design space. The present dissertation investigates the issues related to code verification, surrogate model-based optimization and sensitivity evaluation. For Navier-Stokes (NS) CFD code verification a least square extrapolation (LSE) method is assessed. This method projects numerically computed NS solutions from multiple, coarser base grids onto a freer grid and improves solution accuracy by minimizing the residual of the discretized NS equations over the projected grid. In this dissertation, the finite volume (FV) formulation is focused on. The interplay between the xi concepts and the outcome of LSE, and the effects of solution gradients and singularities, nonlinear physics, and coupling of flow variables on the effectiveness of LSE are investigated. A CFD-based design optimization of a single element liquid rocket injector is conducted with surrogate models developed using response surface methodology (RSM) based on CFD solutions. The computational model consists of the NS equations, finite rate chemistry, and the k-6 turbulence closure. With the aid of these surrogate models, sensitivity and trade-off analyses are carried out for the injector design whose geometry (hydrogen flow angle, hydrogen and oxygen flow areas and oxygen post tip thickness) is optimized to attain desirable goals in performance (combustion length) and life/survivability (the maximum temperatures on the oxidizer post tip and injector face and a combustion chamber wall temperature). A preliminary multi-objective optimization study is carried out using a geometric mean approach. Following this, sensitivity analyses with the aid of variance-based non-parametric approach and partial correlation coefficients are conducted using data available from surrogate models of the objectives and the multi-objective optima to identify the contribution of the design variables to the objective variability and to analyze the variability of the design variables and the objectives. In summary the present dissertation offers insight into an improved coarse to fine grid extrapolation technique for Navier-Stokes computations and also suggests tools for a designer to conduct design optimization study and related sensitivity analyses for a given design problem.

Vaidyanathan, Rajkumar↗

NASA NTRS2000

Web Exploration Tools for a Fast Federated Optical Survey Database

We implemented several new web-based tools to improve the efficiency and versatility of access to the APS Catalog of the POSS I (Palomar Observatory-National Geographic Sky Survey) and its associated image database. The most important addition was a federated database system to link the APS Catalog and image database into one Internet-accessible database. With the FDBS, the queries and transactions on the integrated database are performed as if it were a single database. We installed Myriad the FDBS developed by Professor Jaideep Srivastava and members of his group in the University of Minnesota Computer Science Department. It is the first system to provide schema integration, query processing and optimization, and transaction management capabilities in a single framework. The attached figure illustrates the Myriad architecture. The FDBS permits horizontal access to the data, not just vertical. For example, for the APS, queries can be made not only by sky position, but also by any parameter present in either of the databases. APS users will be able to produce an image of all the blue galaxies and stellar sources for comparison with x-ray source error ellipses from AXAF (X Ray Astrophysics Facility) (Chandra) for example. The FDBS is now available as a beta release with the appropriate query forms at our web site. While much of our time was occupied with adapting Myriad to the APS environment, we also made major changes in Star Base, our DBMS for the Catalog, at the web interface to improve its efficiency for issuing and processing queries. Star Base is now three times faster for large queries. Improvements were also made at the web end of the image database for faster access; although work still needs to be done to the image database itself for more efficient return with the FDBS. During the past few years, we made several improvements to the database pipeline that creates the individual plate databases queries by StarBase. The changes include improved positions especially for galaxies, using a new median centroider and integrated magnitudes for galaxies with an improved density-to-intensity calibration with a "sky" background subtraction. In the original version of StarBase the object classification fainter than 19.5-20.0 mag., was an extrapolation of the networks trained on brighter objects. We have used a new catalog of galaxies at the NGP to train a neural network on objects fainter than 20th mag. This improved classification is used in the new version of StarBase. We have also added a FITS table option for the returned data from queries on the object catalog. The APS image database includes images in both colors so we have added a tool for querying the image database in both colors simultaneously. The images can be displayed in parallel or blinked for comparison.

Humphreys, Roberta M.↗

DOE OSTI2021

The updated ITPA global H-mode confinement database: description and analysis

The multi-machine ITPA Global H-mode Confinement Database has been upgraded with new data from JET with the ITER-like wall and ASDEX Upgrade with the full tungsten wall. This paper describes the new database and presents results of regression analysis to estimate the global energy confinement scaling in H-mode plasmas using a standard power law. Various subsets of the database are considered, focusing on type of wall and divertor materials, confinement regime (all H-modes, ELMy H or ELM-free) and ITER-like constraints. Apart from ordinary least squares, two other, robust regression techniques are applied, which take into account uncertainty on all variables. Regression on data from individual devices shows that, generally, the confinement dependence on density and the power degradation are weakest in the fully metallic devices. Using the multi-machine scalings, predictions are made of the confinement time in a standard ELMy H-mode scenario in ITER. The uncertainty on the scaling parameters is discussed with a view to practically useful error bars on the parameters and predictions. One of the derived scalings for ELMy H-modes on an ITER-like subset is studied in particular and compared to the IPB98(y,2) confinement scaling in engineering and dimensionless form. Transformation of this new scaling from engineering variables to dimensionless quantities is shown to result in large error bars on the dimensionless scaling. Regression analysis in the space of dimensionless variables is therefore proposed as an alternative, yielding acceptable estimates for the dimensionless scaling. The new scaling, which is dimensionally correct within the uncertainties, suggests that some dependencies of confinement in the multi- machine database can be reconciled with parameter scans in individual devices. This includes vanishingly small dependence of confinement on line-averaged density and normalized plasma pressure (β), as well as a noticeable, positive dependence on effective atomic mass and plasma triangularity. Extrapolation of this scaling to ITER yields a somewhat lower confinement time compared to the IPB98(y, 2) prediction, possibly related to the considerably weaker dependence on major radius in the new scaling (slightly above linear). Further studies are needed to compare more flexible regression models with the power law used here. In addition, data from more devices concerning possible ‘hidden variables’ could help to determine their influence on confinement, while adding data in sparsely populated areas of the parameter space may contribute to further disentangling some of the global confinement dependencies in tokamak plasmas.

Database↗

DOE OSTI2021

Long-Term Creep-Rupture Behavior of Alloy Inconel 740/740H

To explore potential application of Ni-based alloys for power generation at the higher temperatures and pressures needed to achieve high thermal to electrical-energy conversion efficiency, an extensive creep-rupture dataset covering up to 875 °C and almost 70,000 h for Inconel 740/740H was analyzed using Larson–Miller parameter and Wilshire approaches. The results were used to assess the relative effectiveness of the two analytical methods, both in describing the experimental data and, because of the breadth of the dataset, using analyses of its shorter-time data to make creep lifetime predictions for much more extended times, which were then directly compared to the measured rupture times. The respective methods were also used to predict creep-limited lifetimes relevant to power production (that is, 100,000 h or greater). Despite the complexity of the precipitation-strengthened Inconel 740/740H alloy and the generalized parametric approach of these methodologies, the predictions based on such were reasonably accurate when the entire dataset was analyzed. However, when the analysis was confined to only data for conditions yielding creep-rupture times < 5,000 h( about 65 % of the entire dataset), the Wilshire correlation yielded better prediction for longer time lifetimes due to the inherent instability of the specific Larson–Miller formalism used in this analysis when extrapolated significantly outside its analysis range.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Atomic masses with machine learning for the astrophysical r process

The astrophysical r process plays a vital role in the production of heavy elements. Modeling of the r process is sensitive to masses and further requires knowledge of masses beyond current experimental reach. Therefore, simulations of the r process offer a unique test bed for predicting mass extrapolations. We take a Machine-Learning (ML) approach to model the masses across the entire chart of nuclides. For the first time, we simulate r-process nucleosynthesis with a physics-based ML mass model. We compare simulated abundances to solar data in order to evaluate the model's performance far from stability. The resulting r-process abundances up to thorium and uranium qualitatively match those of the observed solar system abundance pattern, with the characteristic peaks well positioned. We propagate the mass uncertainties obtained from the ML model to r-process abundance yields to estimate an uncertainty band associated with our approach. The size of the uncertainty band is approximately one order of magnitude which aligns with the uncertainty reported using alternative techniques.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Can a deep-learning model make fast predictions of vacancy formation in diverse materials?

The presence of point defects, such as vacancies, plays an important role in materials design. Here, we explore the extrapolative power of a graph neural network (GNN) to predict vacancy formation energies. We show that a model trained only on perfect materials can also be used to predict vacancy formation energies (E vac ) of defect structures without the need for additional training data. Such GNN-based predictions are considerably faster than density functional theory (DFT) calculations and show potential as a quick pre-screening tool for defect systems. To test this strategy, we developed a DFT dataset of 530 E vac consisting of 3D elemental solids, alloys, oxides, semiconductors, and 2D monolayer materials. We analyzed and discussed the applicability of such direct and fast predictions. We applied the model to predict 192 494 E vac for 55 723 materials in the JARVIS-DFT database. Our work demonstrates how a GNN-model performs on unseen data.

2D materials↗

DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian averaging for ground state masses of atomic nuclei in a Machine Learning approach

We present global predictions of the ground state mass of atomic nuclei based on a novel Machine Learning algorithm. We combine precision nuclear experimental measurements together with theoretical predictions of unmeasured nuclei. This hybrid data set is used to train a probabilistic neural network. In addition to training on this data, a physics-based loss function is employed to help refine the solutions. The resultant Bayesian averaged predictions have excellent performance compared to the testing set and come with well-quantified uncertainties which are critical for contemporary scientific applications. We assess extrapolations of the model’s predictions and estimate the growth of uncertainties in the region far from measurements.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1972

Viscosity and thermal conductivity of moderately dense gas mixtures.

Derivation of a simple, semitheoretical expression for the initial density dependence of the viscosity and thermal conductivity of gaseous mixtures in terms of the appropriate properties of the pure components and of their interaction quantities. The derivation is based on Enskog's theory of dense gases and yields an equation in which the composition dependence of the linear factor in the density expansion is explicit. The interaction quantities are directly related to those of the mixture extrapolated to zero density and to a universal function valid for all gases. The reliability of the formulation is assessed with respect to the viscosity of several binary mixtures. It is found that the calculated viscosities of binary mixtures agree with the experimental data with a precision which is comparable to that of the most precise measurements.

Wakeham, W. A.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Electric Field Induced Spectra of H sub 2 and D sub 2

The frequencies of four Q-branch lines of H2 and five Q-branch lines of D2 were measured as a function of density, and their shifts were observed to be in the linear region. The individual slopes and extrapolated zero density frequency of each line was determined. Hydrogen was measured for polarizability using the integrated intensity of the Q1(0) and S1(1), H2 absorption line. A highly automated technique for determining the response function of the spectrometer using digitally recorded data is presented. For the Q1(0) and Q1(1) lines of H2 the halfwidths were measured as a function of electric field intensity at constant pressure, and again at several densities and compared to previously measured widths. Technical and operational details of equipment built for this experiment, and for the five-meter Littrow spectrometer used, are described. Modifications of the spectrometer optics to accept the Stark cell are discussed.

Boyd, William Joseph↗