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Tropical deep convection and its dynamical effect on the tropopause and stratosphere are investigated using a suite of data from the Upper Atmospheric Research Satellite (UARS) Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), including upper tropospheric humidity, cloud radiance, and gravity wave measurements.
The ionospheric potential (VI), a measure of the earth's overall electric field intensity, correlates with the classic 'Carnegie curve' diurnal variation in electric field caused by the global distribution of thunderstorms. A comparison of VI variation with satellite images of high tropical cloud fields indicates that equatorial thunderstorms over the continents are dominant in maintaining the earth's electric field. VI time series obtained at just one location may provide a high-resolution measure of intense tropical convection.
Recent measurements conducted from the Pioneer Venus probes and orbiter have provided a significantly improved definition of the solar net flux profile, the gaseous composition, temperature structure, and cloud properties of Venus' lower atmosphere. Using these data, we have carried out a series of one-dimensional radiative-convective equilibrium calculations to determine the viability of the greenhouse model of Venus' high surface temperature and to assess the chief contributors to the greenhouse effect. New sources of infrared opacity include the permitted transitions of SO2, CO, and HCl as well as opacity due to several pressure-induced transitions of CO2. We find that the observed surface temperature and lapse rate structure of the lower atmosphere can be reproduced quite closely with a greenhouse model that contains the water vapor abundance reported by the Venera spectrophotometer experiment. Thus the greenhouse effect can account for essentially all of Venus' high surface temperature. The prime sources of infrared opacity are, in order of importance, CO2, H2O, cloud particles, and SO2, with CO and HCl playing very minor roles.
Review of current techniques for measuring ionospheric and magnetospheric electric fields and existing measurements. Considerable progress in understanding electric fields has been made in the auroral regions where fields originating basically from convection patterns in the magnetosphere and modified by ionospheric interaction have been detected by both the barium ion cloud and double floating probe techniques and have been compared against predictions. The anticorrelation of electric fields and auroral arcs, the establishment of the auroral electrojet currents as Hall currents, the irregular nature of the electric fields, and the reversal of the electric fields between the eastward and westward electrojet regions have been some of the important observations. Recent barium ion cloud observations in the polar cap have indicated that the long assumed electrojet return current across the polar cap does not exist.
Expected orientation angles and horizontal wavelengths of boundary layer rolls or cloud streets are determined from an analysis of a truncated spectral model of three dimensional shallow moist Boussinesq convection in a shearing environment. The nonlinear secondary circulations are organized into two dimensional forms by the height dependent wind field, and these rolls may develop from the combined effects of thermal stratification and mean wind shear. The associated thermal and parallel instability mechanisms are shown to be special cases of a single one. Only one mode is found when the stratification is unstable or neutral, but a second one is possible when the stratification is weakly stable. The first corresponds to relatively broadly spaced rolls having orientations for which the Fourier component of the roll perpendicular shear is nearly zero, but the second corresponds to relatively narrowly spaced rolls having orientations for which the Fourier coefficients of both the perpendicular and the parallel components of the shear are nearly equal.
Using the cumulus ensemble model (Soong and Ogura, 1980), statistical properties of cumulus clouds that occur in response to the imposed large scale forcing were investigated both in the tropical and midlatitude situtations. A strong drying process was found to occur in the boundary layer in association with deep convection in a midlatitude case. The Arakawa-Schubert (1974) cumulus parameterization scheme was tested semi-prognostically against both the model result and the observation in a tropical rain event that occurred in GATE. The Cloud heating and drying effects predicted by the Arakawa-Schubert scheme were found to agree well both with the observation and the model result. However, it was also found that the Arakawa-Schuber scheme underestimates both condensation and evaporation rates substantially. An inclusion of the downdraft effect, as formulated by Johnson (1976), appears to alleviate this deficiency. This downdraft effect may be important in predicting the behavior of the boundary accurately.
Expected orientation angles and horizontal wavelengths of boundary layer rolls or cloud streets are determined from an analysis of a truncated spectral model of three dimensional shallow moist Boussinesq convection in a shearing environment. The nonlinear secondary circulations are organized into two dimensional forms by the height dependent wind field, and these rolls may develop from the combined effects of thermal stratification and mean wind shear. The associated thermal and parallel instability mechanisms are shown to be special cases of a single one. Only one mode is found when the stratification is unstable or neutral, but a second one is possible when the stratification is weakly stable. The first corresponds to relatively broadly spaced rolls having orientations for which the Fourier component of the roll perpendicular shear is nearly zero, but the second corresponds to relatively narrowly spaced rolls having orientations for which the Fourier coefficients of both the perpendicular and the parallel components of the shear are nearly equal.
Cooling and darkening at Earth's surface are expected to result from the interception of sunlight by the high altitude worldwide dust cloud generated by impact of a large asteroid or comet, according to the one-dimensional radioactive-convective atmospheric model (RCM) of Pollack et al. An analogous three-dimensional general circulation model (GCM) simulation obtains the same basic result as the RCM but there are important differences in detail. In the GCM simulation the heat capacity of the oceans, not included in the RCM, substantially mitigates land surface cooling. On the other hand, the GCM's low heat capacity surface allows surface temperatures to drop much more rapidly than reported by Pollack et al. These two differences between RCM and GCM simulations were noted previously in studies of nuclear winter; GCM results for comet/asteroid winter, however, are much more severe than for nuclear winter because the assumed aerosol amount is large enough to intercept all sunlight falling on Earth. In the simulation the global average of land surface temperature drops to the freezing point in just 4.5 days, one-tenth the time required in the Pollack et al. simulation. In addition to the standard case of Pollack et al., which represents the collision of a 10-km diameter asteroid with Earth, additional scenarios are considered ranging from the statistically more frequent impacts of smaller asteroids to the collision of Halley's comet with Earth. In the latter case the kinetic energy of impact is extremely large due to the head-on collision resulting from Halley's retrograde orbit.
Cloud-to-ground lightning is a significant forecast problem at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) in Florida. In this study, cloud-to-ground lightning is related in time and space to surface convergence for 244 days during the convective seasons of 1985 and 1986 over a 790 sq-km network at KSC. The method uses surface convergence, particularly the average over the area, to identify the potential for new, local thunderstorm growth, and it can be used to specify the likely time and location of lightning during the life cycle of the convection. A threshold of 75 x 10 to the -6th/s change in divergence is the main criterion used to define a convergence event, and a set of flashes less than 30 min apart defines a lightning event. Time intervals are found from the study to be approximately 1 h from beginning convergence to first flash, and another hour to the end of lightning. The influences of low-level winds and midlevel moisture in determining the location and intensity of convection are discussed. This is the first known dynamically-based forecast method for lightning prediction. The technique, currently in use at KSC, has been shown to be a systematic, quantitative tool for predicting lightning onset in situations where conventional analysis tools such as radar and satellite are limited.
The question of the effective criterion for convection and semiconvection to use in the inhomogeneous layers of models of massive stars is addressed here in terms of a choice between the Schwarzschild (temperature-gradient) criterion and the Ledoux (density-gradient) criterion. These two extremes give rise to and suppress, respectively, a fully convective zone (FCZ) in the layers immediately above the hydrogen-burning shell, if the star's mass is neither too low nor too high. Specifically, the existence of a large FCZ delays or prevents the star during core helium burning from becoming a red supergiant. The applicable range of initial stellar masses for a solar metallicity is approximately 13 to 30 solar mass. Nine different tests for the effective criterion for convection and semiconvection in Galactic supergiants, as well as a test using SN 1987A of the Large Magellanic Cloud, are performed, or reexamined, by using both old and new theoretical data, while three of the Galactic tests are repeated for association supergiants separately from cluster supergiants. Although eight of the 13 tests yield inconclusive results, five do support the Ledoux criterion, and three do so strongly.
We use clear sky heating rates to show that convective outflow in the tropics decreases rapidly with height between the 350 K and 360 K potential temperature surfaces (or between roughly 13 and 15 km). There is also a rapid fall-off in the pseudoequivalent potential temperature probability distribution of near surface air parcels between 350 K and 360 K. This suggests that the vertical variation of convective outflow in the upper tropical troposphere is to a large degree determined by the distribution of sub cloud layer entropy.
Recently completed TRMM field campaigns (TEFLUN1998, SCSMEX-1998, TRMM.LBA-1999, and KWAJEX 1999) have obtained direct measurements of microphysical data associated with convective systems from various geographical locations. These TRMM field experiments were designed to contribute to fundamental understanding of cloud dynamics and microphysics, as well as for validation,, testing assumptions and error estimates of cloud-resolving models, forward radiative transfer models, algorithms used to estimate rainfall statistics and vertical structure of precipitation and latent heating from both surface-based radar and satellites.
During the months of July-August 2007 NASA conducted a research campaign called the Tropical Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling (TC4) experiment. Vertical profiles of ozone were measured daily using an instrument known as an ozonesonde, which is attached to a weather balloon and launch to altitudes in excess of 30 km. These ozone profiles were measured over coastal Las Tablas, Panama (7.8N, 80W) and several times per week at Alajuela, Costa Rica (ION, 84W). Meteorological systems in the form of waves, detected most prominently in 100-300 in thick ozone layer in the tropical tropopause layer, occurred in 50% (Las Tablas) and 40% (Alajuela) of the soundings. These layers, associated with vertical displacements and classified as gravity waves ("GW," possibly Kelvin waves), occur with similar stricture and frequency over the Paramaribo (5.8N, 55W) and San Cristobal (0.925, 90W) sites of the Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes (SHADOZ) network. The gravity wave labeled layers in individual soundings correspond to cloud outflow as indicated by the tracers measured from the NASA DC-8 and other aircraft data, confirming convective initiation of equatorial waves. Layers representing quasi-horizontal displacements, referred to as Rossby waves, are robust features in soundings from 23 July to 5 August. The features associated with Rossby waves correspond to extra-tropical influence, possibly stratospheric, and sometimes to pollution transport. Comparison of Las Tablas and Alajuela ozone budgets with 1999-2007 Paramaribo and San Cristobal soundings shows that TC4 is typical of climatology for the equatorial Americas. Overall during TC4, convection and associated meteorological waves appear to dominate ozone transport in the tropical tropopause layer.
The TwO-Moment Aerosol Sectional (TOMAS) microphysics model has been integrated into the state-of-the- art general circulation model, GISS ModelE2. This paper provides a detailed description of the ModelE2-TOMAS model and evaluates the model against various observations including aerosol precursor gas concentrations, aerosol mass and number concentrations, and aerosol optical depths. Additionally, global budgets in ModelE2-TOMAS are compared with those of other global aerosol models, and the ModelE2-TOMAS model is compared to the default aerosol model in ModelE2, which is a one-moment aerosol (OMA) model (i.e. no aerosol microphysics). Overall, the ModelE2- TOMAS predictions are within the range of other global aerosol model predictions, and the model has a reasonable agreement (mostly within a factor of 2) with observations of sulfur species and other aerosol components as well as aerosol optical depth. However, ModelE2-TOMAS (as well as ModelE2-OMA) cannot capture the observed vertical distribution of sulfur dioxide over the Pacific Ocean, possibly due to overly strong convective transport and over-predicted precipitation. The ModelE2-TOMAS model simulates observed aerosol number concentrations and cloud condensation nuclei concentrations roughly within a factor of 2. Anthropogenic aerosol burdens in ModelE2-OMA differ from ModelE2-TOMAS by a few percent to a factor of 2 regionally, mainly due to differences in aerosol processes including deposition, cloud processing, and emission parameterizations. We observed larger differences for naturally emitted aerosols such as sea salt and mineral dust, as those emission rates are quite different due to different upper size cutoff assumptions.
In this paper, we present two supervised-learning models, logistic regression and decision tree, to predict occurrence of ground delay program at an airport based on meteorological conditions and scheduled traffic demand. Such predictive capabilities can help the Federal Aviation Administration traffic managers and airline dispatchers to prepare mitigation strategies to reduce the impact of adverse weather. The models are applied to predict ground delay program occurrence at two major U.S. airports: Newark Liberty Intl. and San Francisco Intl. airports. The logistic regression model estimates the probability that a ground delay program will occur during a given hour. Decision tree, on the other hand, classifies an hour as a ground delay program or not based on the input variables. Results indicate that both models perform significantly better than a purely random prediction of ground delay program occurrence at the two airports. The logistic regression model performs better than the decision tree model. The degree to which various input variables impact the probability of ground delay program vary between the two airports. While the enroute convective weather is a dominant factor causing ground delay programs at New York airports, poor visibility and low cloud ceiling caused by marine stratus are major drivers of ground delay programs at San Francisco Intl. airport.
Precipitation retrievals from passive microwave satellite observations form the basis of many widely used precipitation products, but the performance of the retrievals depends on numerous factors such as surface type and precipitation variability. Previous evaluation efforts have identified bias dependence on precipitation regime, which may reflect the influence on retrievals of recurring factors. In this study, the concept of a regime-based evaluation of precipitation from the Goddard profiling (GPROF) algorithm is extended to cloud regimes. Specifically, GPROF V05 precipitation retrievals under four different cloud regimes are evaluated against ground radars over the United States. GPROF is generally able to accurately retrieve the precipitation associated with both organized convection and less organized storms, which collectively produce a substantial fraction of global precipitation. However, precipitation from stratocumulus systems is underestimated over land and overestimated over water. Similarly, precipitation associated with trade cumulus environments is underestimated over land, while biases over water depend on the sensor’s channel configuration. By extending the evaluation to more sensors and suppressed environments, these results complement insights previously obtained from precipitation regimes, thus demonstrating the potential of cloud regimes in categorizing the global atmosphere into discrete systems.
In this paper, data collected from 51 days of continual upper atmospheric soundings and TOGA radar at ABRACOS Hill during the TRMM-LBA experiment are used to describe the mean thermodynamic and kinematic airmass properties of wet season convection over Rondonia, Brazil. Distinct multi-day easterly and westerly lower tropospheric wind regimes occurred during the campaign with contrasting airmass characteristics. Westerly wind periods featured modest CAPE (1000 J/kg), moist conditions (>90% RH) extending through 700 mb and shallow (900 mb) speed shear on the order of 10(exp -4)/s. This combination of characteristics promoted convective systems that featured a relatively large fraction of stratiform rainfall and weak convection nearly devoid of lightning. The environment is very similar to the general airmass conditions experienced during the Darwin, Australia monsoon convective regime. In contrast, easterly regime convective systems were more strongly electrified and featured larger convective rain rates and reduced stratiform rainfall fraction. These systems formed in an environment with significantly larger CAPE (1500 J/kg), drier lower and middle level humidities (< 80% RH) and a wind shear layer that was both stronger (10(exp -3)/s) and deeper (700 mb). The larger CAPE resulted from strong insolation under relatively cloud-free skies (owing to reduced column humidity) and was also weakly capped in the lowest 1-2 km, thus contributing to a more explosive growth of convection. The time series of low- and mid-level averaged humidity exhibited marked variability between westerly and easterly regimes and was characterized by low frequency (i.e., multi-day to weekly) oscillations. The synoptic scale origins of these moisture fluctuations are examined, which include the effects of variable low-level airmass trajectories and upper-level, westward migrating cyclonic vortices. The results reported herein provide an environmental context for ongoing dual Doppler analyses and numerical modeling case studies of individual TRMM-LBA convective systems.
This study uses a unique combination of geostationary and low-Earth orbiting satellite-based lightning and precipitation observations, respectively, to examine the evolution of deep convection during the tropical cyclone (TC) lifecycle. The study spans the 2018-2021 Atlantic Basin hurricane seasons and is unique as it provides the first known analysis of total lightning (intra-cloud and cloud-to-ground) observed in TCs through their extratropical transition and post-tropical cyclone (PTC) phases. We consider the TC lifecycle stage, geographic location (e.g., land, coast, and ocean), shear strength, and quadrant relative to the storm motion and environmental shear vectors. Total lightning maxima are found in the forward right quadrant relative to storm motion and downshear of the TC center, consistent with previous studies using mainly cloud-to-ground lightning. Increasing environmental shear focuses the lightning maxima to the downshear right quadrant with respect to the shear vector in tropical storm phases. Vertical profiles of radar reflectivity from the Global Precipitation Measurement mission show that super electrically active convective precipitation features (>75 flashes) within the PTC phase of TCs have deeper mixed phase depths and higher reflectivity at -10°C than other phases, indicating the presence of more intense convection. Differences in the net convective behavior observed throughout TC evolution manifest in both the TC-scale frequency of lightning-producing cells and the intensity variations amongst individual convective cells. The combination of continuous lightning observations and precipitation snapshots improves our understanding of convective scale processes in TCs, especially in PTC phases, as they traverse the tropics and mid-latitudes.