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NASA NTRS1992

Fault-tolerant wait-free shared objects

A concurrent system consists of processes and shared objects. Previous research focused on the problem of tolerating process failure. We study the complementary problem of tolerating failures. We divide object failures into two broad classes: responsive and non-responsive. With responsive failures, a faulty object responds to every invocation, but responses may be incorrect. With non-responsive failures, a faulty object may also 'hang' without responding. For each class, we consider crash, and arbitrary types of failures. For each type of failure, we are seeking a universal implementation for fault-tolerant wait-free shared objects. We present (deterministic) implementations for all types of responsive failures, including arbitrary failures. In contrast, we show that even the most benign type of non-responsive failures requires the use of randomization. Of special interest is the problem of implementing fault-tolerant objects using only objects of the same type. We present such fault-tolerant self-implementations for many common object types. Graceful degradation is a desirable property of fault-tolerant implementations: the implemented object never fails more severely than the base objects it is derived from, even if all the base objects fail. For several failure models, we show whether this property can be achieved, and, if so, how. In addition to the above possibility/impossibility results, we also consider the resources complexity of fault-tolerant implementations. In many cases, we present lower bounds and give matching algorithms.

Jayanti, Prasad↗

NASA NTRS2006

Exploring the Production of NOx by Lightning and Its Impact on Tropospheric Ozone

Our quantitative understanding of free tropospheric (FT) chemistry is quite poor. State-of-the-art regional air quality models (e.g., US EPA's CMAQ) perform very poorly in simulating FT chemistry, with Uniform ozone around 70 ppb throughout the FT in summer, while ozonesonde data show much higher levels of ozone and much spatial-temporal structure. Such models completely neglect lightning-NOx (LNOx) emissions (the most significant source of NOx in the FT), and also contain large uncertainties in the specifications of intercontinental transport, stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) and PBLFT exchange (PFTE). Global air chemistry models include LNOx, but in very crude fashion, with the frequency and distribution of lightning being based on modeled cloud parameters (hence large uncertainty), lightning energetics being assumed to be constant for all flashes (literature value, while in reality there is at least a two-orders of magnitude variability from flash-to-flash), and the production of NOx in the surrounding heated air, per Joule of heating, being assumed to be constant also (literature value, while in fact it is a non-linear function of the dissipated heat and local air density, p). This situation is commonly blamed on paucity of pertinent observational data, but for the USA, there is now a wealth of surface- and satellite-based data of lightning available to permit much improved observation-based estimation of LNOx emissions. In the FT, such NOx has a long residence time, and also the ozone production efficiency from NOx there is considerably higher than in the PBL. It is, therefore, of critical importance in FT chemistry. This paper will describe the approach and data products of an ongoing NSSTC project aimed at a much-improved quantification of not only LNOx production on the scale of continental USA based on local and regional lightning observations, but also of intercontinental transport, STE and PFTE, all in upgraded simulations of tropospheric transport and chemistry. In our approach for LNOx, (a) we utilize continuous observed lightning information from the NLDN ground network and from satellite imagers (OTD and LIS) to quantify lightning frequency and distribution at the spatial-temporal scales of models such as CMAQ; (b) we develop new methodologies to quantify flash-specific lightning energy dissipation as heat (epsilon) using data from the research-grade lightning measurement facility at NASA-KSC, and to parameterize epsilon based on regional lightning monitoring data (ground- and satellite-based); and, (c) we develop a new parameterization of NOx production as a function of epsilon and rho. Based on such observation-based information, we are working to develop a gridded, episodic LNOx emissions inventory for the USA for use in models like CMAQ. We are also developing approaches for global(MOZART)- regional(CMAQ) chemistry coupling to improve intercontinental transport and STE. Finally, we are developing new methodologies for assimilation of satellite-observed (GOES) clouds into meteorological modeling (MM5), to improve PFTE and to optimize co-location of cloud convection and observed lightning. We will incorporate these improvements in CMAQ simulations over the USA to better understand FT processes and chemistry, and its impact on ground-level ozone.

Gillani, Noor↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

AMMPER: a user-friendly agent-based model that recapitulates simple metabolic responses of yeast to deep-space radiation

For humans venturing to deep space, radiation exposure poses a major health risk. Fundamental research into the biological effects of space radiation are essential for enabling exploration, and the first experimental organisms we send to deep space will be microbial. Yet there are many ways in which microorganisms are likely to experience the effects of high-energy particle radiation (such as Galactic Cosmic Rays) differently from multicellular animals, partly due to the simple fact that microbes are small and unicellular-- less likely to get hit in the first place, and less likely to communicate damage between cells. Computational modeling can aid in designing experiments and predicting the biological effects of radiation, but thus far particle radiation models have not focused on microbes. Here we present the latest developments in AMMPER, the Agent-based Model for Microbial Populations Exposed to Radiation. Originally written in 2021, AMMPER is a Python-based model that incorporates radiation track data from NASA's RITRACKS software and simulates the growth, damage, and death of yeast cells in 3D. It is now freely available as an open-source package on NASA's GitHub repository. Recent improvements include the ability to simulate the dynamics of alamarBlue, a color-changing redox dye commonly used to track metabolic activity in microbial spaceflight experiments. We demonstrate that a simple blue-pink-clear transition model is able to recapitulate key features observed in empirical data from ground studies. AMMPER also includes a new graphical user interface and introductory tutorial to facilitate ease of use by a wider audience. AMMPER can help us to understand how spatially heterogeneous particle radiation damage at the single-cell level can translate to growth differences at the population level, ultimately allowing us to better interpret experiments using microbes as model organisms and how well their results apply to humans.

yeast↗

DOE OSTI2025

Ineffectiveness of formamidine in suppressing ultralow thermal conductivity in cubic hybrid perovskite FAPbI 3

Understanding lattice dynamics and thermal transport mechanisms in cubic hybrid organic–inorganic perovskites remain challenging due to strong anharmonicity and phase transitions. Here, we investigate the thermal transport behavior in benchmark cubic hybrid perovskite FAPbI 3 by coupling first principles-based anharmonic lattice dynamics with a linearized Wigner transport equation. Using the Temperature-Dependent Effective Potential (TDEP) method, we stabilize the negative soft modes, primarily dominated by organic FA + cations. Our calculations predict an ultra-low thermal conductivity of ~$0.63\,{\rm{W}}{{\rm{m}}}^{-1}{{\rm{K}}}^{-1}$ at 300 K, following a temperature dependence of T −0.740 . Contrary to common assumptions, we find that the [PbI 3 ] 1- units, rather than FA + cations, dominate thermal resistance. Furthermore, we demonstrate that anharmonic force constants are highly temperature-sensitive, relying on 0-K force constants significantly underestimates thermal conductivity. Our study not only elucidates the microscopic mechanisms governing thermal transport in FAPbI 3 but also provides a robust framework for modeling heat conduction in hybrid organic-inorganic compounds.

Zheng, Jiongzhi [Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH (U↗

NASA NTRS2019

Common Probe Design Study and Follow-On Activities

The Common Probe Study was funded by the NASA's Planetary Science Division in the Science Mission Directorate in 2018 to investigate the feasibility of a common aeroshell design for atmospheric probe missions at Venus, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune. The study involved 4 NASA Centers: Ames Research Center, Goddard Space Flight Center, Langley Research Center, and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. The common aeroshell design that was studied was a 400 kg, 1.5 m diameter, 45-degree sphere cone shape with a high density heatshield material (Heatshield for Extreme Entry Environments Technology, or HEEET) and a parachute system to extract the descent vehicle. This size of aeroshell could accommodate a descent vehicle of 0.75 m diameter, which could encompass both Tier 1 and Tier 2 science instruments at each of the 5 destinations. Study methodology: First, a notional payload of instruments for each destination was defined based on the top priority measurements indicated by the Planetary Science Decadal Survey. Steep and shallow entry flight path angles (EFPA) were defined for each planet based on qualification and operational g-load limits for current, state-of-the-art instruments. Interplanetary trajectories were then identified that bounded the EFPA range.Next, 3-DoF simulations for entry trajectories were run using the entry state vectors from the interplanetary trajectories. Conical ribbon parachutes were sized based on heatshield separation dynamics. Aero-heating correlations were used to generate stagnation point convective and radiative heat flux profiles. High fidelity thermal response models for various TPS materials were used to size stagnation point thicknesses, with margins based on previous studies. Backshell TPS masses were assumed based on scaled heat fluxes from the heatshield and also from previous mission concepts.Based on these analyses, we have found that the common design is applicable for atmospheric probe missions for 4 out of the 5 destinations. Because of the unique gravity well for Jupiter, the entry environments are more severe resulting in heat loads an order of magnitude higher than for the other destinations.The next step is to determine what follow-on activities NASA should engage in. A questionnaire for the atmospheric probe community has been developed, with a focus on what size of aeroshell should be further analyzed (smaller or same diameter), and what incentives would make using such an aeroshell, if assembled and available, desirable to mission proposers.Preliminary results from this questionnaire will be presented.

Hwang, Helen H.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Predicting antimicrobial resistance in Pseudomonas aeruginosa with machine learning-enabled molecular diagnostics

Limited therapy options due to antibiotic resistance underscore the need for optimization of current diagnostics. In some bacterial species, antimicrobial resistance can be unambiguously predicted based on their genome sequence. In this study, we sequenced the genomes and transcriptomes of 414 drug-resistant clinical Pseudomonas aeruginosa isolates. By training machine learning classifiers on information about the presence or absence of genes, their sequence variation, and expression profiles, we generated predictive models and identified biomarkers of resistance to four commonly administered antimicrobial drugs. Using these data types alone or in combination resulted in high (0.8–0.9) or very high (> 0.9) sensitivity and predictive values. For all drugs except for ciprofloxacin, gene expression information improved diagnostic performance. Our results pave the way for the development of a molecular resistance profiling tool that reliably predicts antimicrobial susceptibility based on genomic and transcriptomic markers. Finally, the implementation of a molecular susceptibility test system in routine microbiology diagnostics holds promise to provide earlier and more detailed information on antibiotic resistance profiles of bacterial pathogens and thus could change how physicians treat bacterial infections.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Experimental and numerical investigation of fracture conductivity between non-smooth rock surfaces with and without proppant

The enhancement of fracture conductivity is vital for the efficient recovery of subsurface resources, such as geothermal energy and petroleum hydrocarbons. Proppants, granular materials injected into hydraulic fractures to maintain their conductivity, have been studied primarily in the context of smooth fractures (i.e., fractures between smooth rock surfaces). However, non-smooth fractures (i.e., fractures between rough rock surfaces) are common in geoenergy reservoirs and thus require further investigations. In this study, we conducted laboratory measurements of fracture conductivity on shale slabs with non-smooth surfaces and carried out numerical simulation using the lattice Boltzmann (LB) method, which aimed to investigate the conductivity of non-smooth fractures with and without proppants placement. When ceramic proppant with an areal concentration of 2 lb/ft 2 was placed in the fracture, the conductivity was enhanced by roughly 3-8 times compared to fractures without proppant. In fractures with proppant, gas-measured conductivity was higher than that measured with water due to proppant embedment caused by water. The experiments demonstrate the advantages of using proppant in fractures, even if the rock surface roughness can provide certain fracture conductivity via the self-propping mechanism. For fractures without proppants, high rock surface roughness is not necessarily favorable for enhancing fracture conductivity because the self-propping mechanism requires shear slip along the fracture surface. If there is no shear slip, high rock surface roughness can cause a detrimental effect on the fracture conductivity due to the interlocking effect. Utilizing advanced experimental equipment and LB modeling, this research explores the interplays between proppant placement, fracture geometry, and stress conditions to develop a comprehensive understanding of the productivity in non-smooth fractures. Further, the outcomes of this investigation indicate the importance of creating fractures with surface roughness during hydraulic fracturing and will contribute to the development of more efficient stimulation techniques for subsurface energy extraction.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Enhanced Simulation of Atmospheric Blocking in a High‐Resolution Earth System Model: Projected Changes and Implications for Extreme Weather Events

Atmospheric blocking is closely linked to the occurrence of extreme weather events. However, low-resolution Earth system models often underestimate the frequency of blocking, undermining confidence in future projections. Here, in this study, we use the high-resolution Community Earth System Model (CESM-HR; 25 km atm and 10 km ocean) to show that CESM-HR reduces biases in atmospheric blocking for both winter and summer, particularly for events lasting longer than 10 days. This improvement is partly due to reduced sea surface temperature biases at higher resolution. Additionally, applying a bias correction to the 500 hPa geopotential height further enhances blocking frequency simulations, highlighting the crucial role of the mean state. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario, CESM-HR projects a decrease in wintertime blocking over regions such as the Euro-Atlantic and Chukchi-Alaska, consistent with previous studies. In contrast, summer blocking is expected to become more frequent and persistent, driven by weakened zonal winds. The blocking center shifts from historical locations over Scandinavia and eastern Russia to central Eurasia, significantly increasing blocking over the Ural region. Summer blocking frequency over the Scandinavia-Ural region may eventually surpass historical winter blocking over the Euro-Atlantic. This increase in summer blocking could exacerbate summer heatwaves in a warming climate, making severe heatwaves, like those observed recently, more common in the future.

Atmospheric blocking↗

DOE OSTI2021

Turbulence theories and statistical closure approaches

When discussing research in physics and in science more generally, it is common to ascribe equal importance to the three components of the scientific trinity: theoretical, experimental, and computational studies. This review will explore the future of modern turbulence theory by tracing its history, which began in earnest with Kolmogorov’s 1941 analysis of turbulence cascade and inertial range [A.N. Kolmogorov, Dokl. Akad. Nauk SSSR, 30, 299, (1941); 32, 19, (1941)]. The 80th Anniversary of Kolmogorov’s landmark study is a welcome opportunity to survey the achievements and evaluate the future of the theoretical approach of turbulence research. Over the years, turbulence theories have been critically important in laying the foundation of our understanding of the nature of turbulent flows. In particular, the Direct Interaction Approximation (DIA) [R.H. Kraichnan, J. Fluid Mech., 5, 497 (1959)] and its subsequent development, known as the statistical closure approach, can be identified as perhaps the most profound single advancement. The remarkable success of the statistical closure has furnished a platform to study such essential concepts as the energy transfer process and interacting scales, and the roles of the straining and sweeping motions. More recently, the quasi-Lagrangian formulation of V. L’vov & I. Procaccia and Kraichnan’s solvable passive scalar model provided powerful ways to explore another fundamental aspect of turbulent flows, the phenomena of intermittency, and the associated anomalous scaling exponents. In the meantime, the theory of fluid equilibria has been developed to describe the large-scale structures that can emerge from turbulent cascades of two-dimensional and geophysical flows at a later time. And yet, despite all these successes, analytical treatments suffer from mathematical complexities. As a result, the utility of theoretical approaches has been limited to relatively idealized flows. On the other hand, in recent decades, computational abilities and experimental facilities have reached an unprecedented scale. Looking beyond the horizon, the imminent deployment of exascale supercomputers will generate complete datasets of the entire flow field of key benchmark flows, allowing researchers to extract additional measurements concerning fully developed, complex turbulent flow fields far beyond those available from the statistical closure theories. Some other developments that could potentially influence the future course of turbulence theories include the advancement of machine learning, artificial intelligence, and data science; likely disruptions arising from the advent of quantum computation; and the increasingly prominent role of turbulence research in providing more accurate climate scientific data. Finally, turbulence theorists can leverage these developments by asking the right questions and developing advanced, sophisticated frameworks that will be able to predict and correlate vast amounts of data from the other two components of the trinity.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2023

GEFSv12 High- and Low-Skill Day-10 Tornado Forecasts

Abstract On average, modern numerical weather prediction forecasts for daily tornado frequency exhibit no skill beyond day 10. However, in this extended-range lead window, there are particular model cycles that have exceptionally high forecast skill for tornadoes because of their ability to correctly simulate the future synoptic pattern. Here, model initial conditions that produced a more skillful forecast for tornadoes over the United States were exploited while also highlighting potential causes for low-skill cycles within the Global Ensemble Forecasting System, version 12 (GEFSv12). There were 88 high-skill and 91 low-skill forecasts in which the verifying day-10 synoptic pattern for tornado conditions revealed a western U.S. thermal trough and an eastern U.S. thermal ridge, a favorable configuration for tornadic storm occurrence. Initial conditions for high skill forecasts tended to exhibit warmer sea surface temperatures throughout the tropical Pacific Ocean and Gulf of Mexico, an active Madden–Julian oscillation, and significant modulation of Earth-relative atmospheric angular momentum. Low-skill forecasts were often initialized during La Niña and negative Pacific decadal oscillation conditions. Significant atmospheric blocking over eastern Russia—in which the GEFSv12 overforecast the duration and characteristics of the downstream flow—was a common physical process associated with low-skill forecasts. This work helps to increase our understanding of the common causes of high- or low-skill extended-range tornado forecasts and could serve as a helpful tool for operational forecasters. Significance Statement This research provides a framework for the anticipation of a more (or less) skillful 10-day tornado forecast in an operational numerical weather prediction system. High-skill forecasts were associated with substantial tropical convection and warm sea surface temperature throughout the Pacific Ocean and Gulf of Mexico, whereas the underlying cause of low-skill forecasts were typically associated with a blocking anticyclone over eastern Russia. These findings are important because they permit increased or decreased confidence in a long-range forecast of tornado occurrence based on a dynamical prediction system.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2020

An Applied Strategy for Using Empirical and Hybrid Models in Online Monitoring

The monitoring of plant equipment for failure prediction is one of the key contributors to operation and maintenance (O&M) costs for a nuclear power plant (NPP) because O&M monitoring depends on labor-intensive activities that are required to meet high equipment reliability standards. These activities rely primarily on humans for information gathering, condition diagnosis, and predictive analysis. Online monitoring aims to automate these activities by relying on sensors to replace human information gathering and machine learning to replace human analysis and decision making. To facilitate automated monitoring, a systematic strategy for anomaly detection is needed to optimally use the available sensor data, empirical models, and physics-supported models. This strategy is essential to provide credible reasoning on why and when an empirical (i.e., purely data-driven) versus hybrid (i.e., physics-supported) approach should be used and to determine the ideal mix of these two approaches for a defined anomaly detection scope. The extant methods usually adopt an ad hoc trial-and-error approach that, in addition to being time-consuming and costly, is also highly subjective; it is impacted by the background and the skill set of the personnel making the decisions. Thus, such an approach cannot guarantee an optimum outcome. This represents the motivation of the current research effort, which is focused on devising a scientifically supported strategy for the optimum selection of anomaly detection methods. This report presents a detailed assessment of the main anomaly detection techniques within the empirical or hybrid method streams. Empirical methods include pattern, statistical, and causal inference. Hybrid methods include the use of physics models to train and test data methods, reduce data dimensionality, reduce data-model complexity, augment data, and reduce empirical uncertainty; hybrid methods also include the use of data to tune physics models. The listed techniques within these two streams represent the vast majority of techniques performed for anomaly detection. Using the techniques as outcomes, a strategy was developed to enable a systematic decision-making process to lead to one of these techniques. The strategy is driven by key decision points related to data relevance, simple modeling feasibility, data inference, physics-modeling value, data dimensionality, physics knowledge, method of validation, performance, data availability and suitability for training and testing, cause-effect, entropy inference, and model fitting. Each of these decision points in the strategy is explained in detail in this report with examples, along with the scientific basis behind the decisions and outcomes in common and simplified terminology. The strategy is developed for use by any NPP staff with basic engineering or science knowledge. A user-friendly graphical state flow diagram was also developed as a visual presentation of the strategy. The strategy was tested and demonstrated through two pilot projects for the application of anomaly detection at an NPP. Each pilot had two use cases: an initial case in which certain decisions were made that resulted in one or more empirical techniques and a revised use case where one or more key decisions were modified resulting in using a set of hybrid methods.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Firesense: Supporting Operational Partners Through Co-Development

Fire is a natural disturbance and fundamental to many ecosystems, but, across the United States and many areas globally, fires have become more common, larger and more likely to occur at the same time. This has the potential to challenge resource allocation and response and requires coordinated integration of technology and tools at the spatial and temporal scales required by practitioners who make wildland fire management decisions. In the US wildfire is currently managed across state, federal, and tribal agencies who leverage various datasets to guide management decisions. FireSense, a NASA Science Mission Directorate project, aims to develop and deliver trailblazing technology and tools for use before, during, and after wildland fires by working together with land managers and practitioners. FireSense is focused on turning information into solutions by expanding partnerships and collaborations with operational agencies to inform and deliver data and technology to support decisions for wildland fire management. Through implementation across the US and with campaign activities in a variety of landscapes, coordinated research and development work will build upon adaptive and use-inspired approaches that can be put into operation. By leveraging and complementing partner activities through coordinated investment, we support a more comprehensive and cohesive response that can advance fire science to better understand fire behavior and effects through integrated measurement, monitoring and modeling. We present updates from in-progress technology development and field campaigns within the US which include sampling and application across scales with information from multiple sensors collocated with field measurements and highlighting the importance of cross-scale observations during the fire lifecycle. Coordinated investment in new science and technology for the complete fire lifecycle supports a comprehensive and cohesive fire response that help to overcome barriers and anticipate and manage the new reality of extreme fires in a warming world.

Jacquelyn Shuman↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating crown scorch predictions from a computational fluid dynamics wildland fire simulator

Abstract Background Crown scorch—the heating of live leaves, needles, and buds in the vegetative canopy to lethal temperatures without widespread combustion—is one of the most common fire effects shaping post-fire canopies. Despite the ability of computational fluid dynamic models to finely resolve fire activity and buoyant plume dynamics including heterogenous 3D distributions of forest canopy heating, these models have had only limited use in simulating fire effects and have not been used to evaluate crown scorch. Here, we demonstrate a method of evaluating crown scorch using a computational fluid dynamics model, FIRETEC, and validate this approach by simulating the experiments that were used to develop Van Wagner’s 1973 crown scorch model. Results The average scorch height prediction from FIRETEC compares well with the empirical model derived by Van Wagner, which is the most widely used empirical model for crown scorch. We further find that the 3D buoyant plume dynamics from a steady and homogeneous idealized heat source on the ground results in a spatially heterogenous crown scorch pattern reflecting complex heating dynamics that are best represented by percent scorch rather than height of scorch. Conclusions The ability of the computational fluid dynamics model to capture variation in crown scorch due to 3D buoyant plume dynamics provides direct links between forest structure, fire behavior, and fire effects that can be used by forest managers and researchers to better understand how fires result in crown damage under various environmental and management scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1998

Diurnal Reflectance Changes in Vegetation Observed with AVIRIS

Among the most important short-term dynamic biological processes are diurnal changes in canopy water relations. Plant regulation of water transport through stomatal openings affects other gaseous transport processes, often dramatically decreasing photosynthetic fixation of carbon dioxide during periods of water stress. Water stress reduces stomatal conductance of water vapor through the leaf surface and alters the diurnal timing of stomatal opening. Under non-water stressed conditions, stomates typically open soon after dawn and transpire water vapor throughout the daylight period. During stress periods, stomates may close for part of the day, generally near mid-day. Under prolonged stress conditions, stomatal closure shifts to earlier times during the day; stomates may close by mid-morning and remain closed until the following morning - or remain closed entirely. Under these conditions the relationship between canopy greenness (e.g., measured with a vegetation index or by spectral mixture analysis) and photosynthetic fixation of carbon is lost and the remotely sensed vegetation metric is a poor predictor of gas exchange. Prediction of stomatal regulation and exchange of water and trace gases is critical for ecosystem and climate models to correctly estimate budgets of these gases and understand or predict other processes like gross and net ecosystem primary production. Plant gas exchange has been extensively studied by physiologists at the leaf and whole plant level and by biometeorologists at somewhat larger scales. While these energy driven processes follow a predictable if somewhat asymmetric diurnal cycle dependent on soil water availability and the constraints imposed by the solar energy budget, they are nonetheless difficult to measure at the tree and stand levels using conventional methods. Ecologists have long been interested in the potential of remote sensing for monitoring physiological changes using multi-temporal images. Much of this research has focused on day-to-day changes in water use, especially for agricultural applications. Ustin et al. showed seasonal changes in canopy water content in chaparral shrub could be estimated using optical methods. Vanderbilt et al. followed asymmetric diurnal changes in the reflectance of a walnut orchard, but could not attribute specific reflectance changes to specific changes in canopy architecture or physiology. Forests and shrub lands in California experience prolonged periods of drought, sometimes extending six months without precipitation. The conifer and evergreen chaparral communities common to the foothill region around the central valley of California retain their foliage throughout the summer and have low transpiration rates despite high net radiation and temperature conditions. In contrast, grasslands and drought resistant deciduous species in the same habitat are seasonally dormant in summer. Because of differences in the mechanisms of drought tolerance, rooting depth and physiology between different plant communities in the region, it is likely that they display differences in diurnal water relations. The presence of diverse plant communities provides an opportunity to investigate possible diurnal landscape patterns in water relations that could be observed by an airborne hyperspectral scanner. This investigation of AVIRIS data collected over forest and shrub land represents the continuation of a prior investigation involving spectral mixture analysis of diurnal effects in the same AVIRIS data set.

Vanderbilt, V. C.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Atomic layer deposition for surface area determination of solid oxide electrodes

Surface area measurements are important for characterizing porous solids, but commonly used methods such as Brunauer–Emmett–Teller (BET) gas adsorption and computed nanotomography are lacking for certain applications such as the development of solid oxide fuel cell electrodes, which often have absolute surface areas <1 m 2 and contain nanoscale features. Presented is a novel method for the surface area determination of samples with total measurable areas of 1–1000 cm 2 with a standard deviation ± 1 cm 2 , utilizing the atomic layer deposition (ALD) of Al 2 O 3 over microstructurally complex internal porosity. The volume of alumina is then quantified using plasma spectroscopy and converted to an area using the known ALD layer thickness. Under the modest ALD reactor soak times used (8.5 s), the precursor penetration depth is found to be ~50 μm, exceeding the requirement for uniformly coating SOFC functional layers. A model system, (La 0.8 Sr 0.2 ) 0.98 MnO 3–δ /Ce 0.9 Gd 0.1 O 1.95 (LSM/GDC) scaffolds of ~2.7 m 2 g –1 , was measured using the technique and compared against the BET method, and comparable results were obtained but with 1000 times less material needed. The technique is demonstrated for measurements in two example areas of active SOFC research: exsolved (Ni, Fe) nanoparticles on an Sr(Ti, Fe, Ni)O 3–δ electrode and PrO x catalyst nanoparticles infiltrated onto LSM/GDC scaffolds. Finally, the technique may be broadly useful wherever the accurate surface area determination of small absolute quantities of porous ceramic structures on the order of 0.1–50 m 2 g –1 is sought.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Quantification of regional net CO 2 flux errors in the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) v10 model intercomparison project (MIP) ensemble using airborne measurements

Inverse model intercomparison projects (MIPs) provide a chance to assess the uncertainties in inversion estimates arising from various sources. However, accurately quantifying ensemble CO 2 flux errors remains challenging and often relies on the ensemble spread. This study proposes a method for quantifying the errors in regional net surface–atmosphere CO 2 flux estimates from models taken from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) v10 MIP by using independent airborne CO 2 measurements for the period 2015–2017. We first calculate the root mean square error (RMSE) between the ensemble mean of posterior CO 2 concentrations and airborne observations and then isolate the CO 2 concentration errors caused solely by the ensemble mean of posterior net fluxes by subtracting the observation, representation, and transport errors from seven regions. Our analysis reveals that the flux errors projected onto CO 2 space account for 55 %–85 % of the regional average RMSE over the 3 years, ranging from 0.88 to 1.91 ppm. In five regions, the error estimates based on observations exceed those computed from the ensemble spread of posterior fluxes by a factor of 1.33–1.93, implying an underestimation of the actual flux errors, while their magnitudes are comparable in two regions. The adjoint sensitivity analysis identifies that the underestimation of flux errors is prominent where the magnitudes of fossil fuel emissions exceed those of terrestrial-biosphere fluxes by a factor of 3–31 over the 3 years. This suggests the presence of systematic biases in the inversion estimates associated with errors in the prescribed fossil fuel emissions common to all models. Our study emphasizes the value of airborne measurements for quantifying regional errors in ensemble net CO 2 flux estimates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Foundational Concepts in Simulation-Based Resilience Analysis and Design

Resilience is a topic of increasing interest–with ever-present calls from policymakers to increase the resilience of complex systems and infrastructure. However, resilience as a concept can be confusing, because of a lack of a common unified definition and frame of reference. Sometimes it can appear as if resilience analysis is merely duplicating other, more mature fields such as safety, reliability, or risk, while other times it seems as if resilience is providing an “alternative” view with limited rigor. To better understand the resilience concept (and its relation to the broader field of risk management), this paper will present the perspective of simulation-based resilience analysis and design, including some of the foundational precepts and resultant concepts defining the resilience concept. It will further present the motivation for using simulation to understand resilience and highlight some ongoing work and research challenges in this area. From this frame of reference, one can better understand the field of resilience, including how different aspects and definitions of resilience relate to each other, and how resilience relates to broader design considerations and practices.

resilience↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Foundational Concepts in Simulation-Based Resilience Analysis and Design

resilience↗