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Tabulated values of longwave and shortwave radiation fluxes and also cooling and heating rates in the atmosphere for standard atmospheric profiles are presented. The radiation codes used in the Goddard general circulation model were employed for the computations. These results were obtained for an international intercomparison projected called Intercomparison of Radiation Codes in Climate Models (ICRCCM).
The paper presents results of a satellite algorithm intercomparison of monthly precipitation, which was organized by the World Climate Research Program's Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Special attention is given to the techniques used in the projects and the type of data provided in the study (mainly by Japan's GMS visible and IR sensors and the USA's Special Sensor Microwave/Imager). The results of rainfall estimates obtained by Negri et al. (1994) and Adler and Negri (1988) techniques are compared with estimates made with the threshold technique of Arkin (1979, 1983). Results obtained by various techniques are presented for both the instantaneous estimates and for total rain accumulations over an area including Japan for a 24-hr period on June 22, 1989.
The relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) and albedo or cloud cover is examined for two tropical regions with high values of cloud radiative forcing and persistent marine stratocumulus (mSc)-one off the west coast of Peru, the other off the west coast of Angola. The data span five years, from December 1984 to November 1989. Albedos are from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE), cloud covers are from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP), and SSTS are from the Climate Analysis Center. Negative correlation coefficients between albedo and SST are found to be about -0.8 when the seasonal variation of the entire dataset is analyzed. The interannual variation and the spatial variation of individual months also yields correlation coefficients that are negative. The correlation between cloud cover and SST is found to be similar to but weaker than the correlation between albedo and SST, suggesting a decrease in cloud amount and a decrease in cloud albedo with increasing SST for these regions. The corresponding albedo sensitivity averages -0.018/K with local values reaching -0.04/K. These findings are valid from 19 C to 25 C for the Peru mSc and 22 C to 27 C for the Angola mSc. These temperatures approximately bound the domains over which mSc is the prevalent cloud type within each region. These results imply a potential positive feedback to global warming by marine stratocumulus that ranges from approximately 0.14 W/sq m/K to approximately 1 W/sq m/K, depending on whether or not our results apply to all marine stratocumulus. While these values are uncertain to at least +/- 50%, the sensitivity of albedo to sea surface temperature in the present climate may serve as a useful diagnostic tool in monitoring the performance of global climate models.
This grant funded measurements of extraterrestrial He-3 in particles extracted from polar ice samples. The overall objective was to develop measurements of He-3 as tracers of the flux of interplanetary dust particles (IDP's) to the earth. To our knowledge these are the first such measurements, apart from our earlier work. The project also funded an EPO activity - a climate and global change workshop for high school science teachers.
The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is an international project under the auspices of the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) and GEWEX (Global Water and Energy Experiment). The GPCP group consists of scientists from agencies and universities in various countries that work together to produce a set of global precipitation analyses at time scales of monthly, pentad, and daily. The status of the current products will be briefly summarized, focusing on the monthly analysis. Global and large regional rainfall variations and possible long-term changes are examined using the 27-year (1 979-2005) monthly dataset. In addition to global patterns associated with phenomena such as ENSO, the data set is explored for evidence of long-term change. Although the global change of precipitation in the data set is near zero, the data set does indicate a small upward change in the Tropics (25s-25N) during the period,. especially over ocean. Techniques are derived to isolate and eliminate variations due to ENS0 and major volcanic eruptions and the significance of the linear change is examined. Plans for a GPCP reprocessing for a Version 3 of products, potentially including a fine-time resolution product will be discussed. Current and future links to IPWG will also be addressed.
This viewgraph presentation reviews the carbon atmospheric exchange with Arctic tundra. In the Arctic the ecosystem has been a net carbon sink. The project investigates the question of how might climate warming effect high latitude ecosystems and the Earth ecosystems and how to measure the changes.
This slide presentation defines remote sensing, and presents examples of remote sensing and astronaut photography, which has been a part of many space missions. The presentation then reviews the project aimed at analyzing urban vulnerability to climate change, which is to test the hypotheses that Exposure to excessively warm weather threatens human health in all types of climate regimes; Heat kills and sickens multitudes of people around the globe every year -- directly and indirectly, and Climate change, coupled with urban development, will impact human health. Using Multiple Endmember Spectral Mixing Analysis (MESMA), and the Phoenix urban area as the example, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is calculated, a change detection analysis is shown, and surface temperature is shown.
Over four decades of measurements exist that sample the 3-D composition of reactive trace gases in the troposphere from approximately weekly ozone sondes, instrumentation on civil aircraft, and individual comprehensive aircraft field campaigns. An obstacle to using these data to evaluate coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs)the models used to project future changes in atmospheric composition and climateis that exact space-time matching between model fields and observations cannot be done, as CCMs generate their own meteorology. Evaluation typically involves averaging over large spatiotemporal regions, which may not reflect a true average due to limited or biased sampling. This averaging approach generally loses information regarding specific processes. Here we aim to identify where discrete sampling may be indicative of long-term mean conditions, using the GEOS-Chem global chemical-transport model (CTM) driven by the MERRA reanalysis to reflect historical meteorology from 2003 to 2012 at 2o by 2.5o resolution. The model has been sampled at the time and location of every ozone sonde profile available from the Would Ozone and Ultraviolet Radiation Data Centre (WOUDC), along the flight tracks of the IAGOSMOZAICCARABIC civil aircraft campaigns, as well as those from over 20 individual field campaigns performed by NASA, NOAA, DOE, NSF, NERC (UK), and DLR (Germany) during the simulation period. Focusing on ozone, carbon monoxide and reactive nitrogen species, we assess where aggregates of the in situ data are representative of the decadal mean vertical, spatial and temporal distributions that would be appropriate for evaluating CCMs. Next, we identically sample a series of parallel sensitivity simulations in which individual emission sources (e.g., lightning, biogenic VOCs, wildfires, US anthropogenic) have been removed one by one, to assess where and when the aggregated observations may offer constraints on these processes within CCMs. Lastly, we show results of an additional 31-year simulation from 1980-2010 of GEOS-Chem driven by the MACCity emissions inventory and MERRA reanalysis at 4o by 5o. We sample the model at every WOUDC sonde and flight track from MOZAIC and NASA field campaigns to evaluate which aggregate observations are statistically reflective of long-term trends over the period.
The Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) project produces a long-term global climate data record (CDR) that can be used to detect decadal changes in the Earth’s radiation budget (ERB) from the surface to the top-of-atmosphere (TOA). The CERES Energy Balanced and Filled (EBAF) product includes monthly mean shortwave (SW), longwave (LW), and net TOA all-sky and clear-sky radiative fluxes over 1-degree latitude by 1-degree longitude regions. The EBAF SW and LW fluxes are adjusted within their uncertainties to be consistent with the heat storage in the Earth-atmosphere system (Johnson et al. 2016). EBAF also provides a gap-free monthly mean clear-sky flux map by inferring clear-sky fluxes from both CERES and MODIS measurements (Loeb et al. 2018). In this study, we compare the TOA clear-sky fluxes from Aerocom phase III output with those from the CERES EBAF products. Flux differences over the ocean are generally smaller than over the land, and the magnitude of the differences shows seasonal and regional dependency. To understand the flux differences, aerosol optical depths (AOD) from the Aerocom models are compared with the satellite retrievals from MODIS and MISR. Over the ocean, the AOD differences and the flux differences show consistent regional features, indicating that the differences between models and observations are robust as the CERES EBAF clear-sky SW fluxes and MODIS/MISR AODs are determined independently. However, very little resemblance is found between the AOD and flux differences over the land. To further understand the cause of the flux differences over the land, we compare the land surface albedo from MODIS with the albedo from the models and find consistency in regional albedo differences and flux differences. Monthly regional radiative kernels of AOD and surface albedo derived using the MERRA-2 reanalysis data (Thorsen et al. 2020) are applied to AOD and surface albedo differences between models and observations. For most of the models, the AOD and surface albedo differences can explain most of the flux differences between models and CERES EBAF. The EOS era satellites have provided 20 years of carefully calibrated and validated observations that are suitable for trend analysis. Both the MODIS AOD and CERES EBAF clear-sky SW flux show decreasing trends over the coastal regions of eastern China and the eastern United States due to the emission control policies enforced in both countries, and an increasing trend off the coast of India. The AOD and clear-sky SW flux trends are less consistent over land, as the surface albedo changes complicate the clear-sky SW flux trend. The AOD and clear-sky SW flux trends from the Oslo model HIST run are also examined. However, none of the aforementioned regional trends are found in the model results.
Over the last forty years, Earth System Models have become more and more comprehensive and detailed. They have assimilated previously independent modeling efforts in ocean circulation, atmospheric composition, the stratosphere, land surface, and the cryosphere, and are today demonstrably more skillful than earlier efforts. Yet the structural uncertainty in the latest model projections is actually increasing. Meanwhile, impacts of climate change on, for instance, wildfires, tropical cyclones and sea level, appear to be increasing faster than we have been able to predict. I will address some of the current issues at the bleeding edges of model development and the continuing importance of model evaluation.
Feedbacks play a fundamental role in determining the magnitude of the response of the climate system to external forcing, such as from anthropogenic emissions. The latest generation of Earth system models includes aerosol and chemistry components that interact with each other and with the biosphere. These interactions introduce a complex web of feedbacks that is important to understand and quantify. This paper addresses multiple pathways for aerosol and chemical feedbacks in Earth system models. These focus on changes in natural emissions (dust, sea salt, dimethyl sulfide, biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) and lightning) and changes in reaction rates for methane and ozone chemistry. The feedback terms are then given by the sensitivity of a pathway to climate change multiplied by the radiative effect of the change. We find that the overall climate feedback through chemistry and aerosols is negative in the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) Earth system models due to increased negative forcing from aerosols in a climate with warmer surface temperatures following a quadrupling of CO2 concentrations. This is principally due to increased emissions of sea salt and BVOCs which are sensitive to climate change and cause strong negative radiative forcings. Increased chemical loss of ozone and methane also contributes to a negative feedback. However, overall methane lifetime is expected to increase in a warmer climate due to increased BVOCs. Increased emissions of methane from wetlands would also offset some of the negative feedbacks. The CMIP6 experimental design did not allow the methane lifetime or methane emission changes to affect climate, so we found a robust negative contribution from interactive aerosols and chemistry to climate sensitivity in CMIP6 Earth system models.
Wildfire potential monitoring, which is increasingly vital under climate change-induced droughts, could be improved by incorporating remotely-sensed soil moisture data. To better understand the connections between soil moisture and vegetation health, stakeholders are interested in using soil moisture data in the development of fire-related indices. NASA DEVELOP partnered with the Desert Research Institute’s Western Regional Climate Center (WRCC), NOAA’s National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), the North Carolina State Climate Office, and Oklahoma State University to evaluate how measures of remotely-sensed standardized soil moisture compare to vegetation health and fire fuel indices in a case study of two fire events: the 2016 Chimney Tops 2 Fire near Gatlinburg, Tennessee and the 2021 Bootleg Fire near Beatty, Oregon. The team visualized vegetation change six months prior to each event using spectral vegetation indices observed by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard NASA’s Terra satellite and the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI). These visualizations were compared to soil moisture data from European Space Agency's (ESA) Climate Change Initiative Soil Moisture (CCI SM) project, collected in part by the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite. Overall, period of record percentiles and fraction of available water standardizations correlated more strongly with fuel load and vegetation indices, indicating their utility for fire potential monitoring. Soil moisture conditions remained exceptionally dry for several months before the Chimney Tops 2 Fire whereas drought conditions only intensified immediately prior to the Bootleg Fire. This indicates greater sensitivity to drought conditions under Western fire regimes. These findings will inform partners’ monitoring of wildfire potential in both regions and development of early warning systems.
Urban flooding poses as one of the biggest issues for cities today, as its impacts are amplified by both climate change and urbanization. The Natural Capital Project’s Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) Urban Flood Risk Mitigation (UFRM) model, which benefits from its simplicity and robustness, is commonly used in NASA DEVELOP projects for disaster mitigation, urban planning, and environmental justice issues. While InVEST UFRM model was able to produce the surface water runoff and retention map sufficient for the scopes of past projects, the model accuracy and spatial variability need improvement. Since the current InVEST UFRM model employs constant rainfall depth for all pixels in the area of interest (AOI), the model suffers from inaccurately estimating rainfall depth, runoff volume, and flood depth. Therefore, we adapted the model so that satellite-based precipitation raster datasets (i.e., Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement [GPM IMERG]) can be used instead of a single constant value. We simulated the flood events on August 21st and August 22nd, 2017 in Wyandotte County, Kansas using both our modified and the original InVEST UFRM model and then compared the results after incorporating the rainfall raster into the model. Areas with developed land on the land use map predicted moderate to high flood volume in the original volume regardless of the actual amount of precipitation. The modified model considered the rainfall depth’s spatial variation achieving less overestimation of flood runoff and volume at low-to-moderate rainfall area.
Urban flooding poses as one of the biggest issues for cities today as its impacts are amplified by both climate change and urbanization. The Natural Capital Project’s Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) Urban Flood Risk Mitigation (UFRM) model, which benefits from its simplicity and robustness, is commonly used in NASA DEVELOP projects for disaster mitigation, urban planning, and environmental justice issues. While the InVEST UFRM model was able to produce the surface water runoff and retention map sufficient for the scopes of past projects, the model’s accuracy and spatial variability need improvement. Since the current InVEST UFRM model employs constant rainfall depth for all pixels in the area of interest (AOI), the model suffers from inaccurately estimating rainfall depth, runoff volume, and flood depth. Therefore, we adapted the model so that satellite-based precipitation raster datasets (i.e., Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement [GPM IMERG]) can be used instead of a single constant value. We simulated the flood events on August 21st and August 22nd, 2017, in Wyandotte County, Kansas using both our modified and the original InVEST UFRM model and then compared the results after incorporating rainfall raster into the model. Areas with developed land on the land use map predicted moderate to high flood volume in the original volume regardless of the actual amount of precipitation. The modified model considered the rainfall depth’s spatial variation achieving less overestimation of flood runoff and volume at low-to-moderate rainfall area.
The Arctic has experienced rapid sea ice loss and a substantial decline in surface albedo, significantly impacting its radiation budget. Climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) reproduce these changes. However, inconsistencies remain among models regarding the magnitude, spatial distribution, and seasonal patterns of Arctic surface albedo evolution. This study investigates these discrepancies by comparing model outputs with observation from the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES). We develop a decomposition method to assess the contributions of sea ice albedo, sea ice concentration, and sea ice extent to Arctic surface albedo. Over land, differences in snow cover account for the substantial inter-model spread in surface albedo, while over the ocean, sea ice albedo, concentration, and extent all contribute. Comparisons between CMIP6 and the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations, which use identically prescribed sea ice concentrations, reveals considerable inter-model spread in Arctic Ocean surface albedo due to differences in sea ice albedo. Applying the decomposition method to projections shows that models predicting larger decreases in sea ice concentration and extent, especially in the Central Arctic, exhibit lower surface albedo and stronger sea ice albedo feedback. Beyond 2050, Arctic Ocean surface albedo decline is mainly influenced by sea ice extent indicating that the retreat of the ice edge is the most important process to constrain the surface albedo feedback. This study provides insights into factors contributing to the spread and changes in Arctic surface albedo and the associated sea ice albedo feedback.
A quarter of all housing units in the United States are found in multifamily buildings, but few efficiency innovations have been made to improve electric water heating systems in this building type. Domestic hot water in multifamily buildings can either be provided by a large central water heater or smaller in-unit water heaters. Integrated heat pump water heaters that are installed in single-family homes are often a poor fit for individual multifamily units because the water heaters are often located in small internal closets. This confined space can limit the airflow to the heat pump, and the cold exhaust air can cause discomfort and reduced efficiency. Split CO2 HPWHs separate the tank from the heat pump, which allows for installation location flexibility. Further, CO2 heat pumps can operate under colder ambient conditions, making them a better fit for multifamily units across a wide range of climate regions. As part of a larger project to characterize split HPWH performance, we evaluated the feasibility of installing an additional, parallel tank that could provide hot water to a second housing unit using a single CO2 heat pump. This approach would reduce the first costs of these more expensive units. Based on the high draw volume that we imposed on both tanks, the same heat pump may be able to support more tanks, depending on hot water usage. This paper will describe the split CO2 HPWH technology, how the two-tank system was controlled, and results from our laboratory evaluation.
A quarter of all housing units in the country are found in multifamily buildings but few efficiency innovations have been made to improve electric water heating systems in this building type. Domestic hot water in multifamily buildings can either be provided by a large central water heater or smaller in-unit water heaters. Integrated heat pump water heaters that are installed in single family homes are often a poor fit for individual multifamily units since the water heaters are often located in small internal closets. This confined space can limit the air flow to the heat pump and the cold exhaust air can cause discomfort and reduced efficiency. Split CO2 HPWHs separate the tank from the heat pump, which allows for installation location flexibility. Further, CO2 heat pumps can operate under colder ambient conditions, making them a better fit for multifamily units across a wide range of climate regions. As part of a larger project to characterize split HPWH performance, we evaluated the feasibility of installing an additional, parallel tank that could provide hot water to a second housing unit using a single CO2 heat pump. This approach would reduce the first costs of these more expensive units. Based on the high draw volume that we imposed on both tanks, the same heat pump may be able to support more tanks, depending on hot water usage. This paper will describe the split CO2 HPWH technology, how the two-tank system was controlled, and results from our laboratory evaluation.
Summertime tropical upper-tropospheric troughs (TUTTs) provide a unified framework to better understand how extratropical and tropical forcings jointly modulate basin-scale tropical cyclone (TC) activity. In this study, we examine future changes in TUTTs and their implications for TC activity. Multimodel ensemble-mean projections from 45 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models suggest a contraction of the Pacific TUTT and an expansion of the Atlantic TUTT as the climate warms. Consistently, future changes in environment-based TC indices indicate that the large-scale conditions will become more favorable for TC genesis and intensification over the central North Pacific but less favorable over the tropical North Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. Utilizing a TC-permitting large-ensemble dataset [i.e., the Database for Policy Decision-Making for Future Climate Change (d4PDF)] that adequately captures the observed interannual TUTT–TC relationships, we further confirm the impacts of projected TUTT changes on the TC activity in a warmer climate. In contrast, the TUTT–TC relationship is poorly represented in most CMIP6 High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) models; such deficiencies call for caution when assessing future TC risk based on explicitly tracked TCs in these models. Additionally, CMIP6 projections show large intermodel spread in TUTT changes, implying uncertainty in projected TC activity, especially over the central-to-eastern Pacific and the North Atlantic. This intermodel spread is associated with interhemispheric sea surface temperature warming asymmetry, which leads to a meridional shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the simultaneous weakening or strengthening of TUTTs in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. The potential contributions of anthropogenic aerosol forcing and oceanic circulation to this interhemispheric warming asymmetry are briefly examined.