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At least 1,297 records · Page 72

Accurate Simulation of Both Sensitivity and Variability for Amazonian Photosynthesis: Is It Too Much to Ask?

Abstract Estimates of Amazon rainforest gross primary productivity (GPP) differ by a factor of 2 across a suite of three statistical and 18 process models. This wide spread contributes uncertainty to predictions of future climate. We compare the mean and variance of GPP from these models to that of GPP at six eddy covariance (EC) towers. Only one model's mean GPP across all sites falls within a 99% confidence interval for EC GPP, and only one model matches EC variance. The strength of model response to climate drivers is related to model ability to match the seasonal pattern of the EC GPP. Models with stronger seasonal swings in GPP have stronger responses to rain, light, and temperature than does EC GPP. The model to data comparison illustrates a trade‐off inherent to deterministic models between accurate simulation of a mean (average) and accurate responsiveness to drivers. The trade‐off exists because all deterministic models simplify processes and lack at least some consequential driver or interaction. If a model's sensitivities to included drivers and their interactions are accurate, then deterministically predicted outcomes have less variability than is realistic. If a GPP model has stronger responses to climate drivers than found in data, model predictions may match the observed variance and seasonal pattern but are likely to overpredict GPP response to climate change. High or realistic variability of model estimates relative to reference data indicate that the model is hypersensitive to one or more drivers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Design and Modeling of an 80 bar Oxy-Combustor for Direct Fired Supercritical CO2 Applications

As supercritical CO2 power cycles for fossil energy power generation continue to generate interest, there are significant issues and unanswered questions regarding injector design, flame stabilization, wall heat transfer, CO emissions, combustion dynamics and other combustion phenomenon. For natural gas, direct-fired cycles with carbon capture it is believed that Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) modeling will play an essential role in the combustor design process. To accurately model turbulent reacting flows at these unique conditions, experimental data is needed to validate CFD codes and sub-models and is currently lacking at conditions relevant for these cycles. This paper presents the conceptual design and CFD simulations of an experimental 80 bar oxy-combustion facility and test article currently under construction at NETL. The facility is targeted towards the testing of a single injector, direct-fired sCO2 combustor at the 100 kW thermal output level. While these conditions do not reflect the actual Allam cycle operating conditions (300 bar) they are viewed as a stepping stone in the model validation process at supercritical conditions. Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes as well as Large Eddy Simulation are used to model the turbulent combustion process and aid in the design of the combustor and injector. Process parameters including oxidizer preheat temperature and combustor flowrate are investigated.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Free oscillations in a climate model with ice-sheet dynamics

A study of stable periodic solutions to a simple nonlinear model of the ocean-atmosphere-ice system is presented. The model has two dependent variables: ocean-atmosphere temperature and latitudinal extent of the ice cover. No explicit dependence on latitude is considered in the model. Hence all variables depend only on time and the model consists of a coupled set of nonlinear ordinary differential equations. The globally averaged ocean-atmosphere temperature in the model is governed by the radiation balance. The reflectivity to incoming solar radiation, i.e., the planetary albedo, includes separate contributions from sea ice and from continental ice sheets. The major physical mechanisms active in the model are (1) albedo-temperature feedback, (2) continental ice-sheet dynamics and (3) precipitation-rate variations. The model has three-equilibrium solutions, two of which are linearly unstable, while one is linearly stable. For some choices of parameters, the stability picture changes and sustained, finite-amplitude oscillations obtain around the previously stable equilibrium solution. The physical interpretation of these oscillations points to the possibility of internal mechanisms playing a role in glaciation cycles.

Kallen, E.↗

Shoreline as a controlling factor in commercial shrimp production

An ecological model was developed that relates marsh detritus export and shrimp production, based on the hypothesis that the shoreline is a controlling factor in the production of shrimp through regulation of detritus export from the marsh. LANDSAT data were used to develop measurements of shoreline length and area of marsh having more than 5.0 km shoreline/sq km for the coast of Louisiana, demonstrating the capability of remote sensing to provide important geographic information. These factors were combined with published tidal ranges and salinities to develop a mathematical model that predicted shrimp production for nine geographic units of the Louisiana coast, as indicated by the long term average commercial shrimp yield. The mathematical model relating these parameters and the shrimp production is consistent with an energy flow model describing the interaction of detritus producing marshlands with shrimp nursery grounds and inshore shrimping areas. The analysis supports the basic hypothesis and further raises the possibility of applications to coastal zone management requirements.

Faller, K. H.↗

Multi-Axis Identifiability Using Single-Surface Parameter Estimation Maneuvers on the X-48B Blended Wing Body

The problem of parameter estimation on hybrid-wing-body type aircraft is complicated by the fact that many design candidates for such aircraft involve a large number of aero- dynamic control effectors that act in coplanar motion. This fact adds to the complexity already present in the parameter estimation problem for any aircraft with a closed-loop control system. Decorrelation of system inputs must be performed in order to ascertain individual surface derivatives with any sort of mathematical confidence. Non-standard control surface configurations, such as clamshell surfaces and drag-rudder modes, further complicate the modeling task. In this paper, asymmetric, single-surface maneuvers are used to excite multiple axes of aircraft motion simultaneously. Time history reconstructions of the moment coefficients computed by the solved regression models are then compared to each other in order to assess relative model accuracy. The reduced flight-test time required for inner surface parameter estimation using multi-axis methods was found to come at the cost of slightly reduced accuracy and statistical confidence for linear regression methods. Since the multi-axis maneuvers captured parameter estimates similar to both longitudinal and lateral-directional maneuvers combined, the number of test points required for the inner, aileron-like surfaces could in theory have been reduced by 50%. While trends were similar, however, individual parameters as estimated by a multi-axis model were typically different by an average absolute difference of roughly 15-20%, with decreased statistical significance, than those estimated by a single-axis model. The multi-axis model exhibited an increase in overall fit error of roughly 1-5% for the linear regression estimates with respect to the single-axis model, when applied to flight data designed for each, respectively.

Ratnayake, Nalin A.↗

Using the Coronal Evolution to Successfully Forward Model CMEs' In Situ Magnetic Profiles

Predicting the effects of a coronal mass ejection (CME) impact requires knowing if impact will occur, which part of the CME impacts, and its magnetic properties. We explore the relation between CME deflections and rotations, which change the position and orientation of a CME, and the resulting magnetic profiles at 1 AU. For 45 STEREO-era, Earth-impacting CMEs, we determine the solar source of each CME, reconstruct its coronal position and orientation, and perform a ForeCAT (Forecasting a CME's Altered Trajectory) simulation of the coronal deflection and rotation. From the reconstructed and modeled CME deflections and rotations, we determine the solar cycle variation and correlations with CME properties. We assume no evolution between the outer corona and 1 AU and use the ForeCAT results to drive the ForeCAT In situ Data Observer (FIDO) in situ magnetic field model, allowing for comparisons with ACE and Wind observations. We do not attempt to reproduce the arrival time. On average FIDO reproduces the in situ magnetic field for each vector component with an error equivalent to 35 percent of the average total magnetic field strength when the total modeled magnetic field is scaled to match the average observed value. Random walk best fits distinguish between ForeCAT's ability to determine FIDO's input parameters and the limitations of the simple flux rope model. These best fits reduce the average error to 30 percent.The FIDO results are sensitive to changes of order a degree in the CME latitude, longitude, and tilt, suggesting that accurate space weather predictions require accurate measurements of a CME's position and orientation.

Kay, C.↗

Geometry-complete perceptron networks for 3D molecular graphs

Abstract Motivation The field of geometric deep learning has recently had a profound impact on several scientific domains such as protein structure prediction and design, leading to methodological advancements within and outside of the realm of traditional machine learning. Within this spirit, in this work, we introduce GCPNet, a new chirality-aware SE(3)-equivariant graph neural network designed for representation learning of 3D biomolecular graphs. We show that GCPNet, unlike previous representation learning methods for 3D biomolecules, is widely applicable to a variety of invariant or equivariant node-level, edge-level, and graph-level tasks on biomolecular structures while being able to (1) learn important chiral properties of 3D molecules and (2) detect external force fields. Results Across four distinct molecular-geometric tasks, we demonstrate that GCPNet’s predictions (1) for protein–ligand binding affinity achieve a statistically significant correlation of 0.608, more than 5%, greater than current state-of-the-art methods; (2) for protein structure ranking achieve statistically significant target-local and dataset-global correlations of 0.616 and 0.871, respectively; (3) for Newtownian many-body systems modeling achieve a task-averaged mean squared error less than 0.01, more than 15% better than current methods; and (4) for molecular chirality recognition achieve a state-of-the-art prediction accuracy of 98.7%, better than any other machine learning method to date. Availability and implementation The source code, data, and instructions to train new models or reproduce our results are freely available at https://github.com/BioinfoMachineLearning/GCPNet.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Jet quenching in the glasma phase: Medium-induced radiation

Inspired by the recent considerations of parton momentum broadening in the glasma phase, we study the medium-induced soft gluon radiation of jet partons at early times in heavy-ion collisions. The glasma state is assumed to be comprised of independent color domains with homogenous longitudinal fields that vary event by event, and we further complete this model with an event-averaging procedure accounting for the finite correlation length. Using this description, we evaluate the rate of medium-induced radiation from an energetic parton at midrapidity in the glasma phase. We mainly focus on SU(2) color fields for simplicity, also referring to the U(1) case and comparing with the Baier, Dokshitzer, Mueller, Peigné, Schiff, and Zakharov rate to gain further insight. Our results show that there is an intricate interplay of the synchrotron-like radiation in a single color domain with the destructive interference between different color domains, after the medium averaging is performed. Thus, we find that the emission rate is sensitive to the matter structure, decreasing for a glasma state populated by smaller color domains—i.e., for a glasma with a larger characteristic saturation scale. Our approach can be applied to more realistic backgrounds, and it sets the stage for the modeling of jet evolution in the early stages of heavy-ion collisions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

The influence of tillage and fertilizer on the flux and source of nitrous oxide with reference to atmospheric variation using laser spectroscopy

Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) is the third most important long-lived greenhouse gas and agriculture is the largest source of N 2 O emissions. Curbing N 2 O emissions requires understanding influences on the flux and sources of N 2 O. We measured flux and evaluated microbial sources of N 2 O using site preference ( S P ; the intramolecular distribution of 15 N in N 2 O) in flux chambers from a grassland tilling and agricultural fertilization experiments and atmosphere. We identified values greater than that of the average atmosphere to reflect nitrification and/or fungal denitrification and those lower than atmosphere as increased denitrification. Our spectroscopic approach was based on an extensive calibration with 18 standards that yielded S P accuracy and reproducibility of 0.7 ‰ and 1.0 ‰, respectively, without preconcentration. Chamber samples from the tilling experiment taken ~ monthly over a year showed a wide range in N 2 O flux (0–1.9 g N 2 O-N ha -1 d -1 ) and S P (- 1.8 to 25.1 ‰). Flux and S P were not influenced by tilling but responded to sampling date. Large fluxes occurred in October and May in no-till when soils were warm and moist and during a spring thaw, an event likely representing release of N 2 O accumulated under snow cover. These high fluxes could not be ascribed to a single microbial process as S P differed among chambers. However, the year-long S P and flux data for no-till showed a slight direct relationship suggesting that nitrification increased with flux. The comparative data in till showed an inverse relationship indicating that high flux events are driven by denitrification. Corn ( Zea mays ) showed high fluxes and S P values indicative of nitrification ~ 4 wk after fertilization with subsequent declines in S P indicating denitrification. Although there was no effect of fertilizer treatment on flux or S P in switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum) , high fluxes occurred ~1 month after fertilization. In both treatments, S P was indicative of denitrification in many instances, but evidence of nitrification/fungal denitrification also prevailed. At 2 m atmospheric N 2 O S P had a range of 31.1 ‰ and 14.6 ‰ in the grassland tilling and agricultural fertilization experiments, respectively. These data suggest the influence of soil microbial processes on atmospheric N 2 O and argue against the use of the global average atmospheric S P in isotopic modeling approaches.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Avoidance of disruptions on KSTAR due to vertical displacement events via novel real-time stability assessment

Disruption avoidance via the DECAF approach has been achieved on KSTAR using a novel real-time vertical stability assessment and a multiactuator feedback control strategy. The development of disruption avoidance strategies with reactor-relevant reliability is an urgent activity, enabling future fusion power plants. The stability metric employed is based on a new formulation of a vertical force gradient balance metric evaluated across the poloidal cross section of the plasma, with parameters tuned using historical data. Evaluation of this metric on a validation set of 400 recent KSTAR shots indicates >82% of Vertical displacement events can be avoided via feedback control. Essential to its calculation is the two-dimensional toroidal current density distribution in the plasma. Measurement of this profile faster than fully-converged equilibrium reconstructions can deliver is found to improve forecaster performance and is achieved with a surrogate model that takes as input magnetic diagnostic measurements and outputs the current profile on a basis comprising the top principal components of historical current profiles (from past equilibrium reconstructions). This method solves the non-uniqueness problem typically faced when reconstructing current profiles directly from diagnostics, while improving computational time and accuracy. On average, profiles produced by this model reach coefficients of determination of >0.99 with respect to those from equilibrium reconstructions. The avoidance actuators employed include poloidal field coils and an electron cyclotron current drive system. The multiactuator approach, as shown in this first demonstration, allows disruption avoidance while minimizing impact to operational performance. This ability, along with its flexibility and speed, makes this new approach an attractive option for avoiding these types of disruptions in reactors.

Tobin, Matthew [Columbia Univ., New York, NY (Unit↗

Implications of different income distributions for future residential energy demand in the U.S.

Abstract Future income distribution will affect energy demand and its interactions with various societal priorities. Most future model simulations assume a single average consumer and thus miss this important demand determinant. We quantify long-term implications of alternative future income distributions for state-level residential energy demand, investment, greenhouse gas, and pollutant emission patterns in the United States (U.S.) by incorporating income quintiles into the residential energy sector of the Global Change Analysis Model with 50-state disaggregation. We find that if the income distribution within each U.S. state becomes more egalitarian than present, what means that the difference on income between the richest and poorest decreases over time, residential energy demand could be 10% (4%–14% across states) higher in 2100. This increase of residential energy demand will directly reduce energy poverty, with a very modest increment on economywide CO 2 emissions (1%–2%). On the other hand, if U.S. states transition to a less equitable income distribution than present, with the difference between richest and poorest increasing over time, residential energy demand could be 19% (12%–26% across states) lower. While this study focuses on a single sector, we conclude that to improve understanding of synergies and tradeoffs across multiple societal goals such as energy access, emissions, and investments, future model simulations should explicitly consider subregional income distribution impacts.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

SST Variation Due to Interactive Convective-Radiative Processes

The recent linking of Cloud-Resolving Models (CRMs) to Ocean-Mixed Layer (OML) models has provided a powerful new means of quantifying the role of cloud systems in ocean-atmosphere coupling. This is due to the fact that the CRM can better resolve clouds and cloud systems and allow for explicit cloud-radiation interaction. For example, Anderson (1997) applied an atmospheric forcing associated with a CRM simulated squall line to a 3-D OML model (one way or passive interaction). His results suggested that the spatial variability resulting from the squall forcing can last at least 24 hours when forced with otherwise spatially uniform fluxes. In addition, the sea surface salinity (SSS) variability continuously decreased following the forcing, while some of the SST variability remained when a diurnal mixed layer capped off the surface structure. The forcing used in the OML model, however, focused on shorter time (8 h) and smaller spatial scales (100-120 km). In this study, the 3-D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble Model (GCE; 512 x 512 x 23 cu km, 2-km horizontal resolution) is used to simulate convective active episodes occurring in the Western Pacific warm pool and Eastern Atlantic regions. The model is integrated for seven days, and the simulated results are coupled to an OML model to better understand the impact of precipitation and changes in the planetary boundary layer upon SST variation. We will specifically examine and compare the results of linking the OML model with various spatially-averaged outputs from GCE simulations (i.e., 2 km vs. 10-50 km horizontal resolutions), in order to help understand the SST sensitivity to multi-scale influences. This will allow us to assess the importance of explicitly simulated deep and shallow clouds, as well as the subgrid-scale effects (in coarse-model runs) upon SST variation. Results using both 1-D and 2-D OML models will be evaluated to assess the effects of horizontal advection.

Tao, W.-K.↗

The Area Localized Coupled Model for Analytical Mean Flow Prediction in Arbitrary Wind Farm Geometries

This work introduces the area localized coupled (ALC) model, which extends the applicability of approaches that couple classical wake superposition models and atmospheric boundary layer models to wind farms with arbitrary layouts. Coupling wake and top–down boundary layer models is particularly challenging since the latter requires averaging over planform areas associated with turbine-specific regions of the flow that need to be specified. The ALC model uses Voronoi tessellation to define this local area around each turbine. A top–down description of a developing internal boundary layer is then applied over Voronoi cells upstream of each turbine to estimate the local mean velocity profile. Coupling between the velocity at hub-height based on this localized top–down model and a wake model is achieved by enforcing a minimum least-square-error in mean velocity in each cell. The wake model in the present implementation takes into account variations in wind farm inflow velocity and represents the wake profile behind each turbine as a super-Gaussian function that smoothly transitions between a top-hat shape in the region immediately following the turbine to a Gaussian profile downstream. Detailed comparisons to large-eddy simulation (LES) data from two different wind farms demonstrate the efficacy of the model in accurately predicting both wind farm power output and local turbine hub-height velocity for different wind farm geometries. These validations using data generated from two different LES codes demonstrate the model's versatility with respect to capturing results from different simulation setups and wind farm configurations.

49 EE - Wind and Water Power Program - Wind (EE-4W↗

Evaluation of Blended Wing-Body Combinations with Curved Plan Forms at Mach Numbers Up to 3.50

This investigation is a continuation of the experimental and theoretical evaluation of the effects of wing plan-form variations on the aerodynamic performance characteristics of blended wing-body combinations. The present report compares previously tested straight-edged delta and arrow models which have leading-edge sweeps of 59.04 and 70-82 deg., respectively, with related models which have plan forms with curved leading and trailing edges designed to result in the same average sweeps in each case. All the models were symmetrical, without camber, and were generally similar having the same span, length, and aspect ratios. The wing sections had an average value of maximum thickness ratio of about 4 percent of the local wing chords in a streamwise direction. The wing sections were computed by varying their shapes along with the body radii (blending process) to match the selected area distribution and the given plan form. The models were tested with transition fixed at Reynolds numbers of roughly 4,000,000 to 9,000,000, based on the mean aerodynamic chord of the wing. The characteristic effect of the wing curvature of the delta and arrow models was an increase at subsonic and transonic speeds in the lift-curve slopes which was partially reflected in increased maximum lift-drag ratios. Curved edges were not evaluated on a diamond plan form because a preliminary investigation indicated that the curvature considered would increase the supersonic zero-lift wave drag. However, after the test program was completed, a suitable modification for the diamond plan form was discovered. The analysis presented in the appendix indicates that large reductions in the zero-lift wave drag would be obtained at supersonic Mach numbers if the leading- and trailing-edge sweeps are made to differ by indenting the trailing edge and extending the root of the leading edge.

Holdaway, George H.↗

Grid Refinement Techniques for the 𝜸-Re𝜽𝒕 Transition Model in FUN3D

There has been an increased focus on the overall accuracy and grid convergence of Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS)-based transition models from the recent AIAA and NATO-AVT workshops. Even though satisfactory grid convergence could be achieved for simple two-dimensional flow configurations, it required mesh counts that are substantially larger than those used in typical applications. In this paper, we focus our efforts on understanding how the grid resolution and topology influences the accuracy and convergence of results by studying the Schubauer and Skramstad flat-plate configuration and the NLF-0416 airfoil at an angle of attack equal to five degrees using FUN3D, a second-order finite-volume code. By focusing on these cases, we can analyze both natural and separation-induced transition scenarios. Multiple grid refinement strategies are investigated. First, we determine the relative effectiveness of zonal streamwise refinement in the transition region within structured grids as an alternative to the costly option of globally uniform refinement of a baseline grid. We also complement this zonal technique by globally varying the wall-normal resolution keeping the streamwise resolution fixed. The zonal streamwise refinement can accurately model natural transition in a flat-plate boundary layer and separation-induced transition, but struggles to accurately model natural transition in airfoil flows. A series of unstructured prismatic grids that have similar node counts and viscous wall spacings as the structured hexahedral grids are also tested, and they do not achieve grid convergence until an extremely fine resolution. Last, we employ adjoint-based unstructured grid adaptation in FUN3D to natural and separation-induced transition on the NLF-0416 airfoil. The adjoint-based refinement process converges to the same solution as the baseline family of structured grids, but leads to smaller errors on coarser grids.

Grid Adaptation↗

Grid Refinement Techniques for the 𝜸-Re 𝜽 𝒕 Transition Model in FUN3D

There has been an increased focus on the overall accuracy and grid convergence of Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS)-based transition models from the recent AIAA and NATO-AVT workshops. Even though satisfactory grid convergence could be achieved for simple two-dimensional flow configurations, it required mesh counts that are substantially larger than those used in typical applications. In this paper, we focus our efforts on understanding how the grid resolution and topology influences the accuracy and convergence of results by studying the Schubauer and Skramstad flat-plate configuration and the NLF-0416 airfoil at an angle of attack equal to five degrees using FUN3D, a second-order finite-volume code. By focusing on these cases, we can analyze both natural and separation-induced transition scenarios. Multiple grid refinement strategies are investigated. First, we determine the relative effectiveness of zonal streamwise refinement in the transition region within structured grids as an alternative to the costly option of globally uniform refinement of a baseline grid. We also complement this zonal technique by globally varying the wall-normal resolution keeping the streamwise resolution fixed. The zonal streamwise refinement can accurately model natural transition in a flat-plate boundary layer and separation-induced transition, but struggles to accurately model natural transition in airfoil flows. A series of unstructured prismatic grids that have similar node counts and viscous wall spacings as the structured hexahedral grids are also tested, and they do not achieve grid convergence until an extremely fine resolution. Last, we employ adjoint-based unstructured grid adaptation in FUN3D to natural and separation-induced transition on the NLF-0416 airfoil. The adjoint-based refinement process converges to the same solution as the baseline family of structured grids, but leads to smaller errors on coarser grids.

Grid Adaptation↗

An intermediate model for fitting triplet–triplet annihilation in phosphorescent organic light emitting diode materials

Triplet–triplet annihilation (TTA) is one of the primary contributors to efficiency roll-off and permanent material degradation in phosphorescent organic light-emitting diodes. Here, the two limiting case models typically used to quantify this quenching mechanism are multi-step Dexter and single-step Förster, which, respectively, assume ideal Fickian diffusion or perfect trapping of triplet excitons. For device-relevant guest doping levels (typically 5–12 vol. %), both significant diffusion of excitons and trapping due to spatial and energetic disorder exist, so neither conventional model fits experimental data well. We develop and validate an intermediate TTA model, which is a weighted average of the limiting cases of pure radiative decay (no TTA) and multi-step Dexter based TTA that returns an effective TTA rate constant and a parameter quantifying the portion of well-isolated excitons. Kinetic Monte-Carlo simulations and time-resolved photoluminescence measurements of an archetype host–guest system demonstrate that our intermediate model provides significantly improved fits with more realistic physical values, is more robust to variations in experimental conditions, and provides an analysis framework for the effects of trapping on TTA.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗