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At least 1,279 records · Page 71

Uncertainty Quantification in CO2 Trapping Mechanisms: A Case Study of PUNQ-S3 Reservoir Model Using Representative Geological Realizations and Unsupervised Machine Learning

Evaluating uncertainty in CO2 injection projections often requires numerous high-resolution geological realizations (GRs) which, although effective, are computationally demanding. This study proposes the use of representative geological realizations (RGRs) as an efficient approach to capture the uncertainty range of the full set while reducing computational costs. A predetermined number of RGRs is selected using an integrated unsupervised machine learning (UML) framework, which includes Euclidean distance measurement, multidimensional scaling (MDS), and a deterministic K-means (DK-means) clustering algorithm. In the context of the intricate 3D aquifer CO2 storage model, PUNQ-S3, these algorithms are utilized. The UML methodology selects five RGRs from a pool of 25 possibilities (20% of the total), taking into account the reservoir quality index (RQI) as a static parameter of the reservoir. To determine the credibility of these RGRs, their simulation results are scrutinized through the application of the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test, which analyzes the distribution of the output. In this assessment, 40 CO2 injection wells cover the entire reservoir alongside the full set. The end-point simulation results indicate that the CO2 structural, residual, and solubility trapping within the RGRs and full set follow the same distribution. Simulating five RGRs alongside the full set of 25 GRs over 200 years, involving 10 years of CO2 injection, reveals consistently similar trapping distribution patterns, with an average value of Dmax of 0.21 remaining lower than Dcritical (0.66). Using this methodology, computational expenses related to scenario testing and development planning for CO2 storage reservoirs in the presence of geological uncertainties can be substantially reduced.

Mahjour, Seyed Kourosh↗

Measurement uncertainty of rossi-alpha neutron experiments

Rossi-alpha neutron experiments are used to estimate the prompt neutron decay constant of a fissile assembly, a quantity of widespread interest in applications including in nuclear nonproliferation and criticality safety. This work develops a mathematical model to efficiently estimate measurement uncertainty of Rossi-alpha neutron experiments inferred from a two-exponential fit model with histogram binning. The derived uncertainty estimates were validated using repeated Rossi-alpha measurements of a subcritical, 4.5-kg sphere of weapons-grade, alpha-phase plutonium with nickel, copper, tungsten, and polyethylene reflectors. The estimates of uncertainty for the histogram data produced by the model were conservative and agree with the reference uncertainties within noise. The estimates of the prompt neutron decay constant uncertainty agreed with the reference uncertainties within one standard deviation. In conclusion, the proposed model will reduce total measurement times, ultimately reducing operational and procedural costs in application.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Sensitivity and uncertainty of the IFR-1 BISON benchmark

The fuel performance code BISON is being used to evaluate metallic fuel for a new fast-spectrum test reactor called the Versatile Test Reactor, which is being considered for adoption by the US Department of Energy. To quantify the accuracy of BISON predictions, researchers at Oak Ridge National Laboratory have been developing a series of benchmarks based on legacy metallic fuel experiments. As part of this effort, the sensitivity of BISON predictions to variations in model inputs and the uncertainties associated with BISON predictions must be established. This paper summarizes efforts to perform a comprehensive sensitivity analysis (SA) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) on a benchmark based on the IFR-1 experiment.For the SA, at least one input was chosen from every BISON model and physics module used in the benchmark. The inputs were varied individually in a series of BISON simulations. Here, the resulting variations in benchmark predictions were normalized to calculate sensitivities. These sensitivities were then used to inform input selections for the UQ.The UQ was performed using the Monte Carlo UQ method. A literature review was conducted to estimate uncertainty distributions for the selected inputs, and values were sampled randomly from each distribution in a series of BISON simulations. Variations in the benchmark predictions were used to estimate uncertainty distributions and confidence intervals. It was found that nearly 100% of the benchmark predictions matched the corresponding legacy values within the confidence intervals. However, this is at least partially because the confidence intervals associated with benchmark predictions were wide. The uncertainty contributions of assumptions in the benchmark, experimental uncertainties, and BISON models were quantified. Some analysis was performed to identify inputs that contributed to the uncertainties. Finally, recommendations are made for future benchmark and future BISON development.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Sensitivity and Uncertainty of the IFR-1 BISON Benchmark

The fuel performance code BISON is being used to evaluate metallic fuel for a new fast-spectrum test reactor called the Versatile Test Reactor, which is being considered by the US Department of Energy. To quantify the accuracy of BISON predictions, researchers at Oak Ridge National Laboratory have been developing a series of benchmarks based on legacy metallic fuel experiments. As part of this effort, the sensitivity of BISON predictions to variations in model inputs and the uncertainties associated with BISON predictions must be established. This report summarizes efforts to perform a comprehensive sensitivity analysis (SA) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) on a benchmark based on the IFR-1 experiment. For the SA, at least one input was chosen from every BISON model and physics module used in the benchmark. The inputs were varied individually in a series of BISON simulations. The resulting variations in benchmark predictions were normalized to calculate sensitivities. The strongest sensitivities were identified and used to inform input selections for the UQ. The UQ was performed using the Monte Carlo UQ method. A literature review was conducted to estimate uncertainty distributions for the selected inputs, and values were sampled randomly from each distribution in a series of BISON simulations. Variations in the benchmark predictions were used to estimate uncertainty distributions and confidence intervals. It was found that nearly 100% of benchmark predictions matched the corresponding legacy values within the confidence intervals. However, this is at least partially because of the wide confidence intervals associated with the benchmark predictions. The uncertainty contributions of assumptions in the benchmark, experimental uncertainties, and BISON models were quantified. Some analysis was performed to identify inputs that contributed to the uncertainties. Finally, recommendations are made for future benchmark development and future BISON development.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Linear two-pool models are insufficient to infer soil organic matter decomposition temperature sensitivity from incubations

Abstract Terrestrial carbon (C)-climate feedbacks depend strongly on how soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition responds to temperature. This dependency is often represented in land models by the parameter Q 10 , which quantifies the relative increase of microbial soil respiration per 10 °C temperature increase. Many studies have conducted paired laboratory soil incubations and inferred “active” and “slow” pool Q 10 values by fitting linear two-pool models to measured respiration time series. Using a recently published incubation study (Qin et al. in Sci Adv 5(7):eaau1218, 2019) as an example, here we first show that the very high parametric equifinality of the linear two-pool models may render such incubation-based Q 10 estimates unreliable. In particular, we show that, accompanied by the uncertain initial active pool size, the slow pool Q 10 can span a very wide range, including values as high as 100, although all parameter combinations are producing almost equally good model fit with respect to the observations. This result is robust whether or not interactions between the active and slow pools are considered (typically these interactions are not considered when interpreting incubation data, but are part of the predictive soil carbon models). This very large parametric equifinality in the context of interpreting incubation data is consistent with the poor temporal extrapolation capability of linear multi-pool models identified in recent studies. Next, using a microbe-explicit SOM model (RESOM), we show that the inferred two pools and their associated parameters (e.g., Q 10 ) could be artificial constructs and are therefore unreliable concepts for integration into predictive models. We finally discuss uncertainties in applying linear two-pool (or more generally multiple-pool) models to estimate SOM decomposition parameters such as temperature sensitivities from laboratory incubations. We also propose new observations and model structures that could enable better process understanding and more robust predictive capabilities of soil carbon dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The primordial matter power spectrum on sub-galactic scales

The primordial matter power spectrum quantifies fluctuations in the distribution of dark matter immediately following inflation. Over cosmic time, overdense regions of the primordial density field grow and collapse into dark matter haloes, whose abundance and density profiles retain memory of the initial conditions. By analysing the image magnifications in 11 strongly lensed and quadruply imaged quasars, we infer the abundance and concentrations of low-mass haloes, and cast the measurement in terms of the amplitude of the primordial matter power spectrum. We anchor the power spectrum on large scales, isolating the effect of small-scale deviations from the Lambda cold dark matter (ΛCDM) prediction. Assuming an analytic model for the power spectrum and accounting for several sources of potential systematic uncertainty, including three different models for the halo mass function, we obtain correlated inferences of $\log _{10}\left(P / P_{\Lambda \rm {CDM}}\right)$, the power spectrum amplitude relative to the predictions of the concordance cosmological model, of $0.0_{-0.4}^{+0.5}$, $0.1_{-0.6}^{+0.7}$, and $0.2_{-0.9}^{+1.0}$ at k = 10, 25, and 50 $\rm {Mpc^{-1}}$ at $68 {{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ confidence, consistent with CDM and single-field slow-roll inflation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Understanding Contaminant Migration within a Dynamic River Corridor through Field Experiments and Reactive Transport Modeling

The behavior of a persistent uranium plume within an extended river corridor at the DOE Hanford site is dominantly controlled by river stage fluctuations in the adjacent Columbia River. The plume behavior is further complicated by substantial heterogeneity in physical and geochemical properties of the host aquifer sediments. Multi-scale field and laboratory experiments and reactive transport modeling were integrated to understand the complex plume behavior influenced by highly variable hydrologic and geochemical conditions in time and space. In this paper, we (1) describe multiple data sets from field-scale uranium adsorption and desorption experiments performed at our experimental well-field, (2) develop a reactive transport model that incorporates hydrologic and geochemical heterogeneities characterized from multi-scale and multi-type datasets and a surface complexation reaction network based on laboratory studies, and (3) compare the modeling and observation results to provide insights on how to refine the conceptual model and reduce prediction uncertainties. The experimental results revealed significant spatial variability in uranium adsorption/desorption behavior, while modeling demonstrated that ambient hydrologic and geochemical conditions and heterogeneities in sediment physical and chemical properties both contributed to complex plume behavior and its persistence. This research underscores the great challenges in adequately characterizing this type of site to model the reactive transport processes over scales of 10 m or more. Our analysis provides important insights into the characterization, understanding, modeling, and remediation of groundwater contaminant plumes influenced by dynamic surface water and groundwater interactions.

Chen, Xingyuan↗

High-Temperature Gas Sensor Materials with Properties Predicted via First-Principles Calculations with Machine Learning Modeling and Experimental Corroboration

Understanding the temperature dependence of functional properties of sensing materials is vital for their applications in combustion environments. The electron-phonon coupling that derives the electronic structure change with temperatures is a key property of interest as it affects other sensing responses. Herein, we first assess the temperature dependence of band gap renormalization in sensing materials by employing Allen-Heine-Cardona (AHC) theory with density functional theory (DFT) simulations corroborated with experimental observation. As the AHC calculations are impractical for high-throughput screening of materials, we employ data-driven Gaussian process regression to predict the parameters employed in the O’Donnell empirical model from a set of physical features. To mitigate the reliability issues arising from the small size of the dataset, we apply a Bayesian technique to improve the generalizability of the data-driven models as well as to quantify the uncertainty associated with theoretical predictions. These models capture well the overall trend of the O’Donnell parameters with respect to a reduced feature set obtained by transforming the available physical features. Quantifying the associated uncertainty helps us understand the reliability of the predictions and, therefore, the variation of bandgap as a function of temperature for other novel materials. The predicted candidates from machine learning models are further validated by experiments and DFT calculations.

bandgap renormalization↗

Molten Salt Reactor Experiment Benchmark Evaluation

As one of the six advanced reactor concepts selected by the 2002 Generation IV roadmap as a technology meriting future research, Molten Salt Reactors (MSRs) attracted broad attention and multiple private and public entities are working towards its commercialization. Facing stringent regulatory requirements, validations of computational codes used to calculate and prove the safety characteristics of MSRs play a key role. This project developed the world-first, MSR-related reactor physics benchmark based on a series of zero-power experiments conducted at the Molten Salt Reactor Experiment (MSRE). The benchmark was successfully reviewed by the International Reactor Physics Experiment Evaluation Project (IRPhEP) committee and is available in the IRPhEP handbook starting form the 2019 edition. To benchmark experimental data from the MSRE, a three-dimensional high-fidelity model was developed using the Monte Carlo neutron transport code Serpent 2 and ad-hoc methods have been implemented to account for the unique feature of fuel salt motion. The calculated effective multiplication factor, k eff , for the first criticality experiment, when 235 U was progressively added to the fuel salt in order to achieve criticality with stationary salt and isothermal conditions, was 1.02132 (±3 pcm). The total uncertainty for experimental k eff was estimated to be 420 pcm. The calculated k eff is 2.154% larger than the experimental and benchmark model value, which is approximately five times the benchmark model uncertainty. It is to be noted that, for systems containing large volume of graphite (or other carbonaceous materials), Monte Carlo codes tend to overestimate the keff of the benchmark model by 1% to 2%. The bias is possibly due to uncertainties in the impurity content of the graphite blocks, uncertainty in the neutron capture cross section of carbon or uncertainty in the properties of nuclear-grade graphite. The calculated reactivity coefficient of 235 U concentration (0.2228 ± 0.0014, represented as the change of reactivity over the relative change of 235 U mass in loop) matches well with the experimental value (0.223 ± 0.006), strengthening the confidence on the accurate representation of the fuel salt composition in the MSRE benchmark. Additional reactivity effect calculations, including the control rod bank worth, reactivity effects of fuel circulation and isothermal and fuel temperature coefficients show good agreement with the experimental values (within 1σ) as well.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Tri-level hybrid interval-stochastic optimal scheduling for flexible residential loads under GAN-assisted multiple uncertainties

Various building loads, such as heating, ventilation, and air conditioners (HVACs), electric water heaters (EWHs), and electric vehicles (EVs), can introduce opportunities for improving the flexibility of electricity consumption while satisfying the needs of building owners as well as benefiting the resilience of distribution system. To utilize such flexibility, a tri-level distribution market framework is established, including residential consumers, load aggregators (LAs), and the distribution system operator (DSO). In this work, the uncertainties from all three levels are considered. The random consumption behavior at the consumer level is modeled as a Gaussian noise that is also aggregated and transmitted to the LA level. The weather temperature in the LA level is forecasted as an interval, and the photovoltaic (PV) power in the market-clearing level is modeled by a set of power scenarios generated by Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs). Then, a hybrid interval-stochastic programming is proposed to transform the uncertain problems in the first two levels into deterministic ones. For real-time implementations, a rolling horizon optimization (RHO) scheme is employed to continuously optimize the power consumption based on the latest operating information. Finally, case studies on a modified IEEE 69-bus system validate the effectiveness of the proposed uncertainty modeling strategies and the RHO scheme.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A score-based diffusion model approach for adaptive learning of stochastic partial differential equation solutions

In this paper, we propose a novel framework for adaptively learning the time-evolving solutions of stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) using score-based diffusion models within a recursive Bayesian inference setting. SPDEs play a central role in modeling complex physical systems under uncertainty, but their numerical solutions often suffer from model errors and reduced accuracy due to incomplete physical knowledge and environmental variability. To address these challenges, we encode the governing physics into the score function of a diffusion model using simulation data and incorporate observational information via a likelihood-based correction in a reverse-time stochastic differential equation. This enables adaptive learning through iterative refinement of the solution as new data becomes available. To improve computational efficiency in high-dimensional settings, we introduce the ensemble score filter, a training-free approximation of the score function designed for real-time inference. Numerical experiments on benchmark SPDEs demonstrate the accuracy and robustness of the proposed method under sparse and noisy observations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Recent advances in computational mathematics and applications

We are honored to bring you this special issue dedicated to recent advances in computational mathematics and applications in science and engineering. The papers in this special issue were presented in ”Conference on Computational Mathematics and Applications (CCMA)” held at the University of Nevada Las Vegas (UNLV) during October 25–27, 2019. The conference has attracted about 90 attendees from six countries. The 15 papers in the special issue comprise a diverse collection of theoretical numerical analysis as well as applications in various subjects. Topics cover optimal control of PDEs, discontinuous Galerkin methods, fluid flow in porous media, turbulence flow, static and moving interface problems, complex fluids composed by the mixture of Newtonian fluid and nematic (liquid crystal) flows, modeling of ocean–atmosphere system, image segmentation algorithm, uncertainty quantification problems for turbulence model and Maxwell’s equations, iterative solver for systems resulting from mixed methods, and novel methods for solving systems of nonlinear equations. As the Guest Editors we would like to thank Dr. Leland Jameson at NSF (National Science Foundation) for kindly supporting our conference proposal which made this conference possible. We would also like to thank Darren Sugrue from Elsevier who provided partial support for our conference, and Thennarasu Gunasekaran and his production team from Elsevier who produced this nice special issue. We are grateful to many people (Dr. Zhijian Wu, Lori Ornelas, Elsa Juarez, and many Ph.D. students) at the Department of Mathematical Sciences of UNLV who provided tremendous support for the conference. Finally, we very much appreciate all authors who contributed their precious results to this special issue.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Controlled Islanding Strategy Considering Uncertainty of Renewable Energy Sources Based on Chance-constrained Model

Controlled islanding plays an essential role in preventing the blackout of power systems. Although there are several studies on this topic in the past, not enough attention is paid to the uncertainty brought by renewable energy sources (RESs) that may cause unpredictable unbalanced power and the observability of power systems after islanding that is essential for back-up black-start measures. Therefore, a novel controlled islanding model based on mixed-integer second-order cone and chance-constrained programming (MISOCCP) is proposed to address these issues. First, the uncertainty of RESs is characterized by their possibility distribution models with chance constraints, and the requirements, e. g., system observ-ability, for rapid back-up black-start measures are also considered. Then, a law of large numbers (LLN) based method is employed for converting the chance constraints into deterministic ones and reformulating the non-convex model into convex one. Finally, case studies on the revised IEEE 39-bus and 118-bus power systems as well as the comparisons among different models are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model. The results show that the proposed model can result in less unbalanced power and better observability after islanding compared with other models.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Uncertainty quantification of transition operators in the empirical shell model

While empirical shell model calculations have successfully described low-lying nuclear data for decades, only recently has significant effort been made to quantify the uncertainty in such calculations. Here, in this study, we quantify the statistical error in effective parameters for transition operators in empirical calculations in the sd (1s 1/2 -0d 3/2 -0d 5/2 ) valence space, specifically the quenching of Gamow-Teller transitions, effective charges for electric quadrupole (E2) transitions, and the effective orbital and spin couplings for magnetic dipole (M1) transitions and moments. We find the quenching factor for Gamow-Teller transitions relative to free-space values is tightly constrained. For effective M1 couplings, we found isoscalar components more constrained than isovector. This detailed quantification of uncertainties, while highly empirical, nonetheless is an important step towards interpretation of experiments.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

EVALUATION OF HOT CHANNEL FACTOR FOR SODIUM-COOLED FAST REACTORS WITH MULTI-PHYSICS TOOLKIT

The evaluation of hot channel factor (HCF) is of great significance to the quantification of safety margins for reactor designs. In this paper, HCFs for a sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) are evaluated with the Simulation-based High-efficiency Advanced Reactor Prototyping (SHARP) toolkit, which is developed under the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) Campaign of DOE for multi-physics reactor performance and safety simulations. The high-fidelity neutronics and thermal hydraulics solvers PROTEUS and Nek5000 in the SHARP toolkit are coupled to perform the multi-physics simulations for HCF evaluation. The HCFs induced by cladding manufacturing tolerance, fissile content mal-distribution, wire orientation and uncertainties on the cladding, coolant, and fuel properties are evaluated for a reference core SFR design (AFR-100). The HCFs calculated with the SHARP toolkit are compared to legacy HCFs for similar reactor types. The comparison demonstrates the reduction or elimination of modeling uncertainties in the calculation of HCFs using high fidelity advanced modeling and simulation tools without the need of expensive experiments. Moreover, the reduction of the uncertainties on HCFs evaluation allows an increase in nominal parameters and safety margin, which in turn improves the economic competitiveness of the SFR.

Hot channel factor (HCF)↗

Uncertainty analysis of correlated parameters in automated reaction mechanism generation

Abstract Uncertainty analysis is a useful tool for inspecting and improving detailed kinetic mechanisms because it can identify the greatest sources of model output error. Owing to the very nonlinear relationship between kinetic and thermodynamic parameters and computed concentrations, model predictions can be extremely sensitive to uncertainties in some parameters while uncertainties in other parameters can be irrelevant. Error propagation becomes even more convoluted in automatically generated kinetic models, where input uncertainties are correlated through kinetic rate rules and thermodynamic group values. Local and global uncertainty analyses were implemented and used to analyze error propagation in Reaction Mechanism Generator (RMG), an open‐source software for generating kinetic models. A framework for automatically assigning parameter uncertainties to estimated thermodynamics and kinetics was created, enabling tracking of correlated uncertainties. Local first‐order uncertainty propagation was implemented using sensitivities computed natively within RMG. Global uncertainty analysis was implemented using adaptive Smolyak pseudospectral approximations as implemented in the MIT Uncertainty Quantification Library to efficiently compute and construct polynomial chaos expansions to approximate the dependence of outputs on a subset of uncertain inputs. Cantera was used as a backend for simulating the reactor system in the global analysis. Analyses were performed for a phenyldodecane pyrolysis model. Local and global methods demonstrated similar trends; however, many uncertainties were significantly overestimated by the local analysis. Both local and global analyses show that correlated uncertainties based on kinetic rate rules and thermochemical groups drastically reduce a model's degrees of freedom and have a large impact on the determination of the most influential input parameters. These results highlight the necessity of incorporating uncertainty analysis in the mechanism generation workflow.

Gao, Connie W.↗

Sensitivity Analysis of Genome-Scale Metabolic Flux Prediction

TRIMER, Transcription Regulation Integrated with MEtabolic Regulation, is a genome-scale modeling pipeline targeting at metabolic engineering applications. Using TRIMER, regulated metabolic reactions can be effectively predicted by integrative modeling of metabolic reactions with a Transcription Factor (TF)-gene regulatory network (TRN), which is modeled via a Bayesian network (BN). In this paper, we focus on sensitivity analysis of metabolic flux prediction for uncertainty quantification of BN structures for TRN modeling in TRIMER. We propose a computational strategy to construct the uncertainty class of TRN models based on the inferred regulatory order uncertainty given transcriptomic expression data. With that, we analyze the prediction sensitivity of the TRIMER pipeline for the metabolite yields of interest. The obtained sensitivity analyses can guide Optimal Experimental Design (OED) to help acquire new data that can enhance TRN modeling and achieve specific metabolic engineering objectives, including metabolite yield alterations. Here we have performed small- and large-scale simulated experiments, demonstrating the effectiveness of our developed sensitivity analysis strategy for BN structure learning to quantify the edge importance in terms of metabolic flux prediction uncertainty reduction and its potential to effectively guide OED.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Current profile and normalized beta control via feedback linearization and Lyapunov techniques

Abstract Simultaneous control of the current profile and normalized plasma beta is an essential control problem in the development of advanced tokamak scenarios. However, this control problem is especially challenging due to the nonlinear nature of the current, heat, and particle transport dynamics, as well as the difficulty to understand and accurately model such processes. In this work, a nonlinear, robust, model-based controller for the simultaneous regulation of the current profile and normalized beta has been designed using feedback linearization and Lyapunov redesign techniques. Feedback linearization avoids approximate linearization of the plasma dynamics, retaining the original physics content of the model. Moreover, the use of Lyapunov redesign techniques makes the controller robust against the uncertainties arising during the modeling process. The controller’s performance in the presence of unknown dynamics is tested in nonlinear, one-dimensional simulations using the Control Oriented Transport SIMulator (COTSIM) code, which employs plasma models that are significantly more complex than those employed for control synthesis.

Physics↗