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At least 1,279 records · Page 71
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Order-by-order uncertainties of nucleon-nucleon Wolfenstein amplitudes in chiral effective field theory

Quantum mechanical invariance principles dictate the most general operator structure that can be present in the nucleon-nucleon (NN) interaction. Five independent operators appear in the on-shell NN amplitude together with five corresponding coefficient functions. The usual choice for these coefficient functions is known as the NN Wolfenstein amplitudes. We analyze the order-by-order convergence of each of the five NN Wolfenstein amplitudes predicted by a semilocal coordinate space potential implementation of chiral effective field theory (𝜒⁢EFT). We do this at laboratory kinetic energies between 25 and 200 MeV for both neutron-proton and proton-proton scattering. Our analysis uses the Gaussian-process methods developed by the BUQEYE Collaboration to describe the contributions of each 𝜒⁢EFT order, and so yields truncation uncertainties for each Wolfenstein amplitude that are correlated across scattering angles. We combine information on the size of different orders in the EFT to infer the 𝜒⁢EFT breakdown scale for each amplitude, finding, on average, Λ 𝑏 between 750 and 800 MeV. Furthermore, with this choice of Λ 𝑏 , the EFT truncation uncertainties cover both higher-order results and empirical Wolfenstein amplitudes well for all orders other than the leading order.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sensitivity of the 13 C(α,n) 16 O S factor to the uncertainty in the level parameters of the near-threshold state

The 13 C(α,n) 16 O reaction is the main source of neutrons for the s and i processes in asymptotic giant branch stars and carbon-enhanced metal-poor stars, respectively. The reaction rate over the relevant temperature range from 0.1 to 0.3 GK translates into a center-of-mass energy range of 150 to 540 keV. Current measurements extend down to 300 keV, still requiring an extrapolation of the cross section. At these low energies, the high-energy tail of a 1/2 + state near the reaction threshold makes a significant contribution to the cross section, but its amplitude is still highly uncertain. In this work the uncertainties associated with the low-energy cross-section extrapolation are investigated, in particular the sensitivity to the energy, width, and Coulomb renormalized asymptotic normalization coefficient of the near-threshold resonance. Furthermore, recently it has been suggested that the energy of the near-threshold level may have a large impact on the extrapolation, but this is not found to be the case compared with the other sources of uncertainty.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Uncertainty quantification of an empirical shell-model interaction using principal component analysis

Recent investigations have emphasized the importance of uncertainty quantification (UQ) in nuclear theory. Here, we carry out UQ for configuration-interaction shell-model calculations in the 1$\textit{s}$–0$\textit{d}$ valence space, investigating the sensitivity of observables to perturbations in the 66 parameters (matrix elements) of a high-quality empirical interaction. The large parameter space makes computing the corresponding Hessian numerically costly, so we compare a cost-effective approximation, using the Feynman-Hellmann theorem, to the full Hessian and find it works well. Diagonalizing the Hessian yields the principal components of the interaction: linear combinations of parameters ordered by sensitivity. This approximately decoupled distribution of parameters facilitates theoretical uncertainty propagation onto structure observables: electromagnetic transitions, Gamow-Teller decays, and dark matter-nucleus scattering matrix elements.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Quantifying uncertainties and correlations in the nuclear-matter equation of state

We perform statistically rigorous uncertainty quantification (UQ) for chiral effective field theory (χ EFT) applied to infinite nuclear matter up to twice nuclear saturation density. The equation of state (EOS) is based on high-order many-body perturbation theory calculations with nucleon-nucleon and three-nucleon interactions up to fourth order in the χ EFT expansion. From these calculations our newly developed Bayesian machine-learning approach extracts the size and smoothness properties of the correlated EFT truncation error. Furthermore, we then propose a novel extension that uses multitask machine learning to reveal correlations between the EOS at different proton fractions. The inferred in-medium χ EFT breakdown scale in pure neutron matter and symmetric nuclear matter is consistent with that from free-space nucleon-nucleon scattering. These significant advances allow us to provide posterior distributions for the nuclear saturation point and propagate theoretical uncertainties to derived quantities: the pressure and incompressibility of symmetric nuclear matter, the nuclear symmetry energy, and its derivative. Our results, which are validated by statistical diagnostics, demonstrate that an understanding of truncation-error correlations between different densities and different observables is crucial for reliable UQ. The methods developed here are publicly available as annotated Jupyter notebooks.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian uncertainty quantification for nuclear matter incompressibility

Within a Bayesian statistical framework using the standard Skyrme-Hartree-Fock model, the maximum a posteriori (MAP) values and uncertainties of nuclear matter incompressibility and isovector interaction parameters are inferred from the experimental data of giant resonances and neutron-skin thicknesses of typical heavy nuclei. Furthermore, with the uncertainties of the isovector interaction parameters constrained by the data of the isovector giant dipole resonance and the neutron-skin thickness, we have obtained K 0 = 223$^{+7}_{–8}$ MeV at 68% confidence level using the data of the isoscalar giant monopole resonance in 208 Pb measured at the Research Center for Nuclear Physics (RCNP), Japan, and at the Texas A&M University, USA. Although the corresponding 120 Sn data gives a MAP value for K 0 about 5 MeV smaller than the 208 Pb data, there are significant overlaps in their posterior probability distribution functions.

190 ≤ A ≤ 219↗
DOE OSTI2021

Mass measurements of 60–63 Ga reduce x-ray burst model uncertainties and extend the evaluated T=1 isobaric multiplet mass equation

We report precision mass measurements of neutron-deficient gallium isotopes approaching the proton drip line. The measurements of 60–63 Ga performed with the TITAN multiple-reflection time-of-flight mass spectrometer provide a more than threefold improvement over the current literature mass uncertainty of 61 Ga and mark the first direct mass measurement of 60 Ga. The improved precision of the 61 Ga mass has important implications for the astrophysical rp process, as it constrains essential reaction Q values near the 60 Zn waiting point. Based on calculations with a one-zone model, we demonstrate the impact of the improved mass data on prediction uncertainties of x-ray burst models. The first-time measurement of the 60 Ga ground-state mass establishes the proton-bound nature of this nuclide, thus constraining the location of the proton drip line along this isotopic chain. Including the measured mass of 60 Ga further enables us to extend the evaluated T = 1 isobaric multiplet mass equation up to A = 60.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying uncertainties due to irreducible three-body forces in deuteron-nucleus reactions

Deuteron-induced nuclear reactions are an essential tool for probing the structure of nuclei as well as astrophysical information such as (n, γ) cross sections. The deuteron-nucleus system is typically described within a Faddeev three-body model consisting of a neutron (n), a proton (p), and the target nucleus (A) interacting through pairwise phenomenological potentials. While Faddeev techniques enable the exact description of the three-body dynamics, their predictive power is limited in part by the omission of irreducible neutron-proton-nucleus three-body force (n–p–A 3BF). Here, our goal is to quantify systematic uncertainties stemming from the reduction of deuteron-nucleus (d + A) dynamics to a picture of three pointlike nuclear clusters interacting via pairwise nucleon-nucleus forces, using as testing grounds d + α scattering and the 6 Li ground state. We particularly focus on quantifying uncertainties arising from the full antisymmetrization of the (A + 2)-body system with the target nucleus fixed in its ground state. We adopt the ab initio no-core shell model coupled with the resonating group method (NCSM/RGM) to compute microscopic n–α and p–α interactions, and use them in a three-body description of the d + α system by means of momentum-space Faddeev-type equations. Simultaneously, we also carry out ab initio calculations of d + α scattering and 6 Li ground state by means of six-body NCSM/RGM calculations to serve as a benchmark for the three-body model predictions given by the Faddeev calculations. By comparing the Faddeev and NCSM/RGM results, we show that the irreducible n–p–α 3BF has a non-negligible effect on bound state and scattering observables alike. Specifically, the Faddeev approach yields a 6 Li ground state that is approximately 600 keV shallower than the one obtained with the NCSM/RGM. Additionally, the Faddeev calculations for d + α scattering yield a 3 + resonance that is located approximately 400 keV higher in energy compared to the NCSM/RGM result. The shape of the d + α angular distributions computed using the two approaches also differ, owing to the discrepancy in the predictions of the 3 + resonance energy. The Faddeev three-body model predictions for d + α scattering and 6 Li using microscopic n–α and p–α potentials differ from those computed microscopically with the NCSM/RGM. These discrepancies are due to the n–p–α 3BF, which arises from two-nucleon exchange terms in the microscopic d–α interaction and are not accounted for in the three-body model Faddeev calculations. This study lays the foundation for future parametrizations of the 3BF due to Pauli exclusion principle effects in improved three-body calculations of deuteron-induced reactions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty quantification for neutrino opacities in core-collapse supernovae and neutron star mergers

We perform an extensive study of the correlations between the neutrino-nucleon inverse mean free paths (IMFPs) and the underlying equation of states (EoSs). Strong interaction uncertainties in the neutrino mean free path are investigated in different density regimes. The nucleon effective mass, the nucleon chemical potentials, and the residual interactions in the medium play an important role in determining neutrino-nucleon interactions in a density-dependent manner. Here we study how the above quantities are constrained by an EoS consistent with (i) nuclear mass measurements, (ii) proton-proton scattering phase shifts, and (iii) neutron star observations. We then study the uncertainties of both the charged current and the neutral current neutrino-nucleon inverse mean free paths due to the variation of these quantities, using the Hartree-Fock+random phase approximation method. Finally, we calculate the Pearson correlation coefficients between (i) the EoS-based quantities and the EoS-based quantities; (ii) the EoS-based quantities and the IMFPs; (iii) the IMFPs and the IMFPs. We find a strong impact of residual interactions on neutrino opacity in the spin and spin-isospin channels, which are not well constrained by current nuclear modelings.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Gallium neutrino absorption cross section and its uncertainty

In the recent Baksan Experiment on Sterile Transitions (BEST), a suppressed rate of neutrino absorption on a gallium target was observed, consistent with earlier results from neutrino source calibrations of the SAGE and GALLEX/GNO solar neutrino experiments. The BEST Collaboration, utilizing a 3.4 MCi 51 Cr neutrino source, found observed-to-expected counting rates at two very short baselines of 𝑅 = 0.791 ± 0.05 and 0.766 ± 0.05, respectively. Among recent neutrino experiments, BEST is notable for the simplicity of both its neutrino spectrum, line neutrinos from an electron-capture source whose intensity can be measured to a estimated precision of 0.23%, and its absorption cross section, where the precisely known rate of electron capture to the gallium ground state, 71 Ge ⁢(𝑒−, 𝜈 𝑒 )⁢ 71 Ga ⁢(g.s.), establishes a minimum value. However, the absorption cross section uncertainty is a common systematic in the BEST, SAGE, and GALLEX/GNO neutrino source experiments. Here, in this work, we update that cross section, considering a variety of electroweak corrections and the role of transitions to excited states, to establish both a central value and reasonable uncertainty, thereby enabling a more accurate assessment of the statistical significance of the gallium anomalies. Results are given for 51 Cr and 37 Ar sources. The revised neutrino capture rates are used in a reevaluation of the BEST and gallium anomalies.

electroweak interactions in nuclear physics↗
DOE OSTI2021

Statistical and systematic uncertainties in extracting the source properties of neutron star-black hole binaries with gravitational waves

Gravitational waves emitted by neutron star black hole mergers encode key properties of neutron stars - such as their size, maximum mass and spins - and black holes. However, the presence of matter and the high mass ratio makes generating long and accurate waveforms from these systems hard to do with numerical relativity, and not much is known about systematic uncertainties due to waveform modeling. In this work, we simulate gravitational waves from neutron star black hole mergers by hybridizing numerical relativity waveforms produced with the SpEC code with a recent numerical relativity surrogate NRHybSur3dq8Tidal. These signals are analyzed using a range of available waveform families, and statistical and systematic errors are reported. We find that at a network signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of 30, statistical uncertainties are usually larger than systematic offsets, while at an SNR of 70 the two become comparable. The individual black hole and neutron star masses, as well as the mass ratios, are typically measured very precisely, though not always accurately at high SNR. At a SNR of 30 the neutron star tidal deformability can only be bound from above, while for louder sources it can be measured and constrained away from zero. All neutron stars in our simulations are non-spinning, but in no case we can constrain the neutron star spin to be smaller than ~0.4 (90% credible interval). Waveform families whose late inspiral has been tuned specifically for neutron star black hole signals typically yield the most accurate characterization of the source parameters. Their measurements are in tension with those obtained using waveform families tuned against binary neutron stars, even for mass ratios that could be relevant for both binary neutron stars and neutron star black holes mergers.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying modeling uncertainties when combining multiple gravitational-wave detections from binary neutron star sources

Here, with the increasing sensitivity of gravitational-wave detectors, we expect to observe multiple binary neutron-star systems through gravitational waves in the near future. The combined analysis of these gravitational-wave signals offers the possibility to constrain the neutron-star radius and the equation of state of dense nuclear matter with unprecedented accuracy. However, it is crucial to ensure that uncertainties inherent in the gravitational-wave models will not lead to systematic biases when information from multiple detections is combined. To quantify waveform systematics, we perform an extensive simulation campaign of binary neutron-star sources and analyze them with a set of four different waveform models. For our analysis with 38 simulations, we find that statistical uncertainties in the neutron-star radius decrease to ± 250 m (2% at 90% credible interval) but that systematic differences between currently employed waveform models can be twice as large. Hence, it will be essential to ensure that systematic biases will not become dominant in inferences of the neutron-star equation of state when capitalizing on future developments.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Parametrized uncertainties in the spectral function model of neutrino charged-current quasielastic interactions for oscillation analyses

A substantial fraction of systematic uncertainties in neutrino oscillation experiments stem from the lack of precision in modeling the nuclear target in neutrino-nucleus interactions. Whilst this has driven significant progress in the development of improved nuclear models for neutrino scattering, it is crucial that the models used in neutrino data analyses be accompanied by parameters and associated uncertainties that allow the coverage of plausible nuclear physics. Based on constraints from electron scattering data, we propose such a set of parameters, which can be applied to nuclear shell models, and test their application to the Benhar [] spectral function model. The parametrization is validated through a series of maximum likelihood fits to cross section measurements made by the T2K and MINERvA experiments, which also permit an exploration of the power of near-detector data to provide constraints on the parameters in neutrino oscillation analyses. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Information divergences to parametrize astrophysical uncertainties in dark matter direct detection

Astrophysical uncertainties in dark matter direct detection experiments are typically addressed by parametrizing the velocity distribution in terms of a few uncertain parameters that vary around some central values. Here we propose a method to optimize over all velocity distributions lying within a given distance measure from a central distribution. We discretize the dark matter velocity distribution as a superposition of streams and use a variety of information divergences to parametrize its uncertainties. With this, we bracket the limits on the dark matter–nucleon and dark matter–electron scattering cross sections, when the true dark matter velocity distribution deviates from the commonly assumed Maxwell-Boltzmann form. The methodology pursued is general and could be applied to other physics scenarios where a given physical observable depends on a function that is uncertain.

particle astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2020

Calibration of reactive burn and Jones-Wilkins-Lee parameters for simulations of a detonation-driven flow experiment with uncertainty quantification

Here, uncertainties in the explosive-specific parameters of the Jones-Wilkins-Lee (JWL) equation of state (EOS) are carefully considered in hydrodynamic simulations of an explosive experiment to minimize the error in the flow prediction. Experimental data of the leading shock position in the transverse direction over time serves as the prediction metric for quantifying simulation prediction error. The uncertainty quantification technique, global sensitivity analysis, is utilized to determine the JWL parameters to which the transverse shock propagation is most sensitive. A polynomial response surface (PRS) is constructed in the space of the most influential JWL parameters, and the point of minimum error between the experimental data and the PRS yields calibrated JWL parameters for the experimental flow. The simulation results following the parameter calibration show good agreement with the experimental data. It was found that two significant parameters, the heat release per unit mass of reactant Q and JWL model exponent R 1 are strongly related, which makes it difficult to identify accurate values.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Global Microscopic Description of Nucleon-Nucleus Scattering with Quantified Uncertainties

We develop for the first time a microscopic global nucleon-nucleus optical potential with quantified uncertainties suitable for analyzing nuclear reaction experiments at next-generation rare-isotope beam facilities. Within the improved local density approximation and without any adjustable parameters, we begin by computing proton-nucleus and neutron-nucleus optical potentials from a set of five nuclear forces from chiral effective field theory for 1800 target nuclei in the mass range 12 ≤ A ≤ 242 for energies between 0 MeV < E ≲ 150 MeV. We then parameterize a global optical potential for each chiral force that depends smoothly on the projectile energy as well as the target nucleus mass number and isospin asymmetry. Uncertainty bands for elastic scattering observables are generated from a full covariance analysis of the parameters entering in the description of our global optical potential and benchmarked against existing experimental data for stable target nuclei. Since our approach is purely microscopic, we anticipate a similar quality of the model for nucleon scattering on unstable isotopes.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Ab Initio Uncertainty Quantification of Neutrinoless Double-Beta Decay in 76 Ge

The observation of neutrinoless double-beta (0⁢𝜈⁢𝛽⁢𝛽) decay would offer proof of lepton number violation, demonstrating that neutrinos are Majorana particles, while also helping us understand why there is more matter than antimatter in the Universe. If the decay is driven by the exchange of the three known light neutrinos, a discovery would, in addition, link the observed decay rate to the neutrino mass scale through a theoretical quantity known as the nuclear matrix element (NME). Accurate values of the NMEs for all nuclei considered for use in 0⁢𝜈⁢𝛽⁢𝛽 experiments are therefore crucial for designing and interpreting those experiments. Here, we report the first comprehensive ab initio uncertainty quantification of the 0⁢𝜈⁢𝛽⁢𝛽-decay NME, in the key nucleus 76 Ge. Here, our method employs nuclear strong and weak interactions derived within chiral effective field theory and recently developed many-body emulators. Our result, with a conservative treatment of uncertainty, is an NME of 2.60$^{+1.28}_{−1.36}$, which, together with the best-existing half-life sensitivity and phase-space factor, sets an upper limit for effective neutrino mass of 187$^{+205}_{−62}$ meV. The result is important for designing next generation germanium detectors aiming to cover the entire inverted hierarchy region of neutrino masses.

Ab initio calculations↗
DOE OSTI2022

Improving Predictions Under Uncertainty of Material Plasma Device Operations

Understanding the properties of materials when exposed to various plasma temperatures and fluxes is essential to the building and operating of fusion reactors. The Material Plasma Exposure eXperiment (MPEX) is an instrument currently being developed by the Department of Energy (DOE) for this purpose. MPEX is expected to come online in stages over the next five years. Proto-MPEX, the predecessor to MPEX, operated from 2014 to 2021, and was designed to understand the generation of plasma temperatures and fluxes at orders of magnitude below what will be obtained by MPEX. This work uses the recently developed stochastic neural network (SNN), a machine learning technique capable of operating under uncertainty to provide a surrogate model for the Proto-MPEX device. We demonstrate that SNN outperforms Bayesian neural network (BNN), a standard in the field of machine learning with uncertainty. The development of a robust surrogate of the Proto-MPEX will aid in the commissioning and operation of the MPEX device.

Archibald, Rick↗
DOE OSTI2020

Scalable Transmission Expansion Under Uncertainty Using Three-Stage Stochastic Optimization

The intermittent nature of renewable energy poses new challenges for power grids due to its variable and uncertain power output. These features of renewable generation are becoming more relevant to transmission planning as grids reach higher penetration levels of renewable energy. In this paper we present an approach for transmission planning based on scalable computational approaches which enable the explicit consideration of operational uncertainties in the planning process. Using three-stage stochastic programming and the progressive hedging algorithm, we compute transmission expansion decisions on a modified RTS-GMLC test system. We augment the grid with large amounts of wind generation and consider many operational scenarios subject to wind uncertainty.

multi-stage stochastic optimization↗