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At least 1,279 records · Page 71

SU-F-303-17: Real Time Dose Calculation of MRI Guided Co-60 Radiotherapy Treatments On Free Breathing Patients, Using a Motion Model and Fast Monte Carlo Dose Calculation

Purpose: To demonstrate real-time dose calculation of free-breathing MRI guided Co−60 treatments, using a motion model and Monte-Carlo dose calculation to accurately account for the interplay between irregular breathing motion and an IMRT delivery. Methods: ViewRay Co-60 dose distributions were optimized on ITVs contoured from free-breathing CT images of lung cancer patients. Each treatment plan was separated into 0.25s segments, accounting for the MLC positions and beam angles at each time point. A voxel-specific motion model derived from multiple fast-helical free-breathing CTs and deformable registration was calculated for each patient. 3D images for every 0.25s of a simulated treatment were generated in real time, here using a bellows signal as a surrogate to accurately account for breathing irregularities. Monte-Carlo dose calculation was performed every 0.25s of the treatment, with the number of histories in each calculation scaled to give an overall 1% statistical uncertainty. Each dose calculation was deformed back to the reference image using the motion model and accumulated. The static and real-time dose calculations were compared. Results: Image generation was performed in real time at 4 frames per second (GPU). Monte-Carlo dose calculation was performed at approximately 1frame per second (CPU), giving a total calculation time of approximately 30 minutes per treatment. Results show both cold- and hot-spots in and around the ITV, and increased dose to contralateral lung as the tumor moves in and out of the beam during treatment. Conclusion: An accurate motion model combined with a fast Monte-Carlo dose calculation allows almost real-time dose calculation of a free-breathing treatment. When combined with sagittal 2D-cine-mode MRI during treatment to update the motion model in real time, this will allow the true delivered dose of a treatment to be calculated, providing a useful tool for adaptive planning and assessing the effectiveness of gated treatments.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Quantitative analysis of treatment process time and throughput capacity for spot scanning proton therapy

Purpose: To determine the patient throughput and the overall efficiency of the spot scanning system by analyzing treatment time, equipment availability, and maximum daily capacity for the current spot scanning port at Proton Therapy Center Houston and to assess the daily throughput capacity for a hypothetical spot scanning proton therapy center. Methods: At their proton therapy center, the authors have been recording in an electronic medical record system all treatment data, including disease site, number of fields, number of fractions, delivered dose, energy, range, number of spots, and number of layers for every treatment field. The authors analyzed delivery system downtimes that had been recorded for every equipment failure and associated incidents. These data were used to evaluate the patient census, patient distribution as a function of the number of fields and total target volume, and equipment clinical availability. The duration of each treatment session from patient walk-in to patient walk-out of the spot scanning treatment room was measured for 64 patients with head and neck, central nervous system, thoracic, and genitourinary cancers. The authors retrieved data for total target volume and the numbers of layers and spots for all fields from treatment plans for a total of 271 patients (including the above 64 patients). A sensitivity analysis of daily throughput capacity was performed by varying seven parameters in a throughput capacity model. Results: The mean monthly equipment clinical availability for the spot scanning port in April 2012–March 2015 was 98.5%. Approximately 1500 patients had received spot scanning proton therapy as of March 2015. The major disease sites treated in September 2012–August 2014 were the genitourinary system (34%), head and neck (30%), central nervous system (21%), and thorax (14%), with other sites accounting for the remaining 1%. Spot scanning beam delivery time increased with total target volume and accounted for approximately 30%–40% of total treatment time for the total target volumes exceeding 200 cm{sup 3}, which was the case for more than 80% of the patients in this study. When total treatment time was modeled as a function of the number of fields and total target volume, the model overestimated total treatment time by 12% on average, with a standard deviation of 32%. A sensitivity analysis of throughput capacity for a hypothetical four-room spot scanning proton therapy center identified several priority items for improvements in throughput capacity, including operation time, beam delivery time, and patient immobilization and setup time. Conclusions: The spot scanning port at our proton therapy center has operated at a high performance level and has been used to treat a large number of complex cases. Further improvements in efficiency may be feasible in the areas of facility operation, beam delivery, patient immobilization and setup, and optimization of treatment scheduling.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

SU-F-T-635: Lung SBRT: Dosimetric and Treatment Time Comparison of Volumetric-Modulated Arc Therapy and Three-Dimensional Conformal Radiotherapy in Clinically Treated Cases

Purpose: To compare three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (3D CRT) and volumetric-modulated arc therapy (VMAT) in lung stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) Methods: A retrospective study of clinically treated lung SBRT cases treated between 2010 and 2015 at our hospital was performed. All treatment modalities were included in this evaluation (VMAT, 3D CRT, static IMRT, and dynamic conformal arc therapy). However, the majority of treatment modalities were either VMAT or 3D CRT. Treatment times of patients and dosimetric plan quality metrics were compared. Treatment times were calculated based on the time the therapist opened and closed the patient’s treatment plan. This treatment time closely approximates the utilization time of the treatment room. The dosimetric plan quality metrics evaluated include ICRU conformity index, the volume of 105% prescribed dose outside PTV, the ratio of volume of 50% prescribed dose to the volume of PTV, the percentage of maximum dose at 2 cm away from PTV to the prescribed dose, and the V20 (percentage of lung volume receiving 20 Gy or more). Results: Treatment time comparisons show that on average VMAT has shorter treatment times than 3D CRT. Dose conformity, defined by the ICRU conformity index, and high dose spillage, defined by the volume of 105% dose outside the PTV, is reduced when using VMAT compared to 3D CRT. V20 and intermediate dose spillage/fall-off metrics of VMAT and 3D are not significantly different. Conclusion: Clinically treated lung SBRT cases indicate VMAT is superior to 3D with regard to shorter treatment times, plan dose conformity, and plan high dose spillage.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

SU-G-BRA-17: Tracking Multiple Targets with Independent Motion in Real-Time Using a Multi-Leaf Collimator

Purpose: Multiple targets with large intrafraction independent motion are often involved in advanced prostate, lung, abdominal, and head and neck cancer radiotherapy. Current standard of care treats these with the originally planned fields, jeopardizing the treatment outcomes. A real-time multi-leaf collimator (MLC) tracking method has been developed to address this problem for the first time. This study evaluates the geometric uncertainty of the multi-target tracking method. Methods: Four treatment scenarios are simulated based on a prostate IMAT plan to treat a moving prostate target and static pelvic node target: 1) real-time multi-target MLC tracking; 2) real-time prostate-only MLC tracking; 3) correcting for prostate interfraction motion at setup only; and 4) no motion correction. The geometric uncertainty of the treatment is assessed by the sum of the erroneously underexposed target area and overexposed healthy tissue areas for each individual target. Two patient-measured prostate trajectories of average 2 and 5 mm motion magnitude are used for simulations. Results: Real-time multi-target tracking accumulates the least uncertainty overall. As expected, it covers the static nodes similarly well as no motion correction treatment and covers the moving prostate similarly well as the real-time prostate-only tracking. Multi-target tracking reduces >90% of uncertainty for the static nodal target compared to the real-time prostate-only tracking or interfraction motion correction. For prostate target, depending on the motion trajectory which affects the uncertainty due to leaf-fitting, multi-target tracking may or may not perform better than correcting for interfraction prostate motion by shifting patient at setup, but it reduces ∼50% of uncertainty compared to no motion correction. Conclusion: The developed real-time multi-target MLC tracking can adapt for the independently moving targets better than other available treatment adaptations. This will enable PTV margin reduction to minimize health tissue toxicity while remain tumor coverage when treating advanced disease with independently moving targets involved. The authors acknowledge funding support from the Australian NHMRC Australia Fellowship and NHMRC Project Grant No. APP1042375.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

MO-FG-BRA-03: A Novel Method for Characterizing Gating Response Time in Radiation Therapy

Purpose: Low temporal latency between a gating ON/OFF signal and the LINAC beam ON/OFF during respiratory gating is critical for patient safety. Current film based methods to assess gating response have poor temporal resolution and are highly qualitative. We describe a novel method to precisely measure gating lag times at high temporal resolutions and use it to characterize the temporal response of several gating systems. Methods: A respiratory gating simulator with an oscillating platform was modified to include a linear potentiometer for position measurement. A photon diode was placed at linear accelerator isocenter for beam output measurement. The output signals of the potentiometer and diode were recorded simultaneously at 2500 Hz (0.4 millisecond (ms) sampling interval) with an analogue-to-digital converter (ADC). The techniques was used on three commercial respiratory gating systems. The ON and OFF of the beam signal were located and compared to the expected gating window for both phase and position based gating and the temporal lag times extracted using a polynomial fit method. Results: A Varian RPM system with a monoscopic IR camera was measured to have mean beam ON and OFF lag times of 98.2 ms and 89.6 ms, respectively. A Varian RPM system with a stereoscopic IR camera was measured to have mean beam ON and OFF lag times of 86.0 ms and 44.0 ms, respectively. A Calypso magnetic fiducial tracking system was measured to have mean beam ON and OFF lag times of 209.0 ms and 60.0 ms, respectively. Conclusions: A novel method allowed for quantitative determination of gating timing accuracy for several clinically used gating systems. All gating systems met the 100 ms TG-142 criteria for mean beam OFF times. For beam ON response, the Calypso system exceeded the recommended response time.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

MO-FG-202-08: Real-Time Monte Carlo-Based Treatment Dose Reconstruction and Monitoring for Radiotherapy

Purpose: This proof-of-concept study is to develop a real-time Monte Carlo (MC) based treatment-dose reconstruction and monitoring system for radiotherapy, especially for the treatments with complicated delivery, to catch treatment delivery errors at the earliest possible opportunity and interrupt the treatment only when an unacceptable dosimetric deviation from our expectation occurs. Methods: First an offline scheme is launched to pre-calculate the expected dose from the treatment plan, used as ground truth for real-time monitoring later. Then an online scheme with three concurrent threads is launched while treatment delivering, to reconstruct and monitor the patient dose in a temporally resolved fashion in real-time. Thread T1 acquires machine status every 20 ms to calculate and accumulate fluence map (FM). Once our accumulation threshold is reached, T1 transfers the FM to T2 for dose reconstruction ad starts to accumulate a new FM. A GPU-based MC dose calculation is performed on T2 when MC dose engine is ready and a new FM is available. The reconstructed instantaneous dose is directed to T3 for dose accumulation and real-time visualization. Multiple dose metrics (e.g. maximum and mean dose for targets and organs) are calculated from the current accumulated dose and compared with the pre-calculated expected values. Once the discrepancies go beyond our tolerance, an error message will be send to interrupt the treatment delivery. Results: A VMAT Head-and-neck patient case was used to test the performance of our system. Real-time machine status acquisition was simulated here. The differences between the actual dose metrics and the expected ones were 0.06%–0.36%, indicating an accurate delivery. ∼10Hz frequency of dose reconstruction and monitoring was achieved, with 287.94s online computation time compared to 287.84s treatment delivery time. Conclusion: Our study has demonstrated the feasibility of computing a dose distribution in a temporally resolved fashion in real-time and quantitatively and dosimetrically monitoring the treatment delivery.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

time-resolved spectroscopy fit (trspecfit) v0.01

Analyze 2D time- and energy-resolved data, such as from a pump-probe spectroscopy experiment. User can select and input different peak shapes/ functions and background types to first fit a ground state/ unperturbed spectrum. This would be similar to how standard spectroscopy data is fit. Subsequently, to describe the time domain, users can choose functions that describe the temporal dynamics of one or more spectral features, such as a peak amplitude, peak position, etc. These time dynamics functions can be added or convoluted (e.g. describing an instrument response function) with each other. Functionality to integrate implicit variables leading to distributions of certain parameters/ functions is in development. Alternatively, 2D data can be analyzed one time step at a time to get an idea of the time dynamics of the system before deploying the global 2D fit described above. Typically people write custom software for this purpose. During my PhD I've seen five internal LBL and external researchers write one-off code in different languages to analyze time- and energy-resolved spectra. While this was specifically was for a laser pump - X-ray probe spectroscopy experiment, I'm trying to write a general package for the time-resolved spectroscopy community.

Mahl, Johannes [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborat↗

Dominant Time Scales of Potentially Predictable Precipitation Variations across the Continental United States

While low-frequency variations in precipitation amount, occurrence counts (hereafter “occurrence”), and intensity can take place on seasonal to multidecadal time scales, it is often unclear at which time scales these precipitation variations can be ascribed to potentially predictable, climate-induced changes versus simple, stochastic (i.e., random) precipitation event evolutions. This paper seeks to isolate the dominant time scales at which potentially predictable changes in observed precipitation characteristics occur over the continental United States and analyze sources of revealed potentially predictable precipitation variations for particular regions. The results highlight that at interannual time scales (here defined as those shorter than 7 years), the potential for predicting annual precipitation amounts tends to be higher than for annual event occurrence or intensity, with interannual potential predictability highest in both relatively dry and wet locations and lowest in transition regions. By contrast, at time scales greater than 7 years the potential for predicting annual event occurrence tends to be higher than amount or intensity, with >20-yr time scale potential predictability highest in relatively wet locations and lowest in relatively dry locations. To highlight the utility of this type of analysis, two robust signals are selected for further investigation, including 1) approximately 10-yr time scale variations in potentially predictable annual amounts over the northwestern United States and 2) 20–60-yr time scale variations in potentially predictable annual event occurrence over the southwestern United States. While mechanistic drivers for these observed variations are still being investigated, concurrent and precursor climate-state estimates in the atmosphere and ocean—principally over the Pacific sector—are provided, the monitoring of which may help realize the potential for predicting precipitation variations in these regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

How Time Inefficient and Uncertain are Paratransit Trips Compared to Car Trips

The Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) stipulates that paratransit mobility be comparable to public transit. However, with just under 5% of the population relying on public transportation, transit is not a representative benchmark. To highlight this inequality, we compare trip times by paratransit to counterfactual car-based travel. Using 2.5 years of demand data from the Denver Regional Transportation District's Access-a-Ride service, we compare paratransit trip times to counterfactual car-based trips for the same origin-destination pairs, controlling for various trip characteristics. Compared to car travel, the findings indicate high variability and uncertainty associated with paratransit trip times. For the same origin-destination pairs, the mean paratransit trip time is almost twice that of the mean car travel time, with a standard deviation for paratransit trip time fourfold that of the standard deviation for car trip time. For perspective, traveling an average of 10 mi during the 7-8 a.m. morning peak can take about 16 min by car with almost no variability, while that same trip can take an average of 25 min by paratransit, with 5% of trips being outside the 95% confidence interval and thus unpredictable. Paratransit trip time inefficiency tends to be particularly worse for females; older adults; those making trips between 9 and 11 a.m.; cash-paying customers; those making shorter trips; and those traveling during inclement weather, including cold temperatures. These findings suggest a need to re-assess using public transit as a benchmark for paratransit supply as regulated by the ADA.

accessible transportation and mobility↗

Data-assimilated time-lapse visco-acoustic full-waveform inversion: Theory and application for injected CO 2 plume monitoring

Continuous seismic monitoring for quantifying CO 2 plume migration and detection of any potential leakages in the subsurface is essential for the security of long-term anthropogenic carbon dioxide geologic storage. Traditional time-lapse full-waveform inversion (TLFWI) methods aim to map the CO 2 distribution by estimating seismic velocity changes, but recent studies find that CO 2 -induced attenuation is an important complement to seismic velocity for tracking the CO 2 plumes and even quantifying the CO 2 saturation. We have developed a novel data-assimilated TLFWI method to construct high-resolution time-lapse velocity and attenuation changes from dense time-lapse monitoring data. This method consists of two theoretical developments: visco-acoustic full-waveform inversion (QFWI) and multiparameter hierarchical matrix-powered extended Kalman filter (mHiEKF). The method is capable of (1) posing temporal constraints to retrieve time-lapse information from dense monitoring data by using mHiEKF, (2) accurately recovering high-spatial-resolution velocity and attenuation perturbations using first-order equation system-based QFWI, and (3) providing the model uncertainty by estimating their model standard deviation. With numerical examples, we first find the effectiveness of the new QFWI on estimating accurate velocity and attenuation models simultaneously. Then, a CO 2 leakage case and a realistic Frio-II CO 2 monitoring case are presented to find the advantages and applicability of our data-assimilated QFWI method for estimating time-lapse changes using dense time-lapse monitoring surveys. Here, by assimilating time-lapse seismic monitoring data over time, our data-assimilated QFWI method can improve the resolution of velocity and attenuation changes and decrease their model uncertainties.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Universal dwell time optimization for deterministic optics fabrication

Computer-Controlled Optical Surfacing (CCOS) has been greatly developed and widely used for precision optical fabrication in the past three decades. It relies on robust dwell time solutions to determine how long the polishing tools must dwell at certain points over the surfaces to achieve the expected forms. However, as dwell time calculations are modeled as ill-posed deconvolution, it is always non-trivial to reach a reliable solution that 1) is non-negative, since CCOS systems are not capable of adding materials, 2) minimizes the residual in the clear aperture 3) minimizes the total dwell time to guarantee the stability and efficiency of CCOS processes, 4) can be flexibly adapted to different tool paths, 5) the parameter tuning of the algorithm is simple, and 6) the computational cost is reasonable. In this study, we propose a novel Universal Dwell time Optimization (UDO) model that universally satisfies these criteria. First, the matrix-based discretization of the convolutional polishing model is employed so that dwell time can be flexibly calculated for arbitrary dwell points. Second, UDO simplifies the inverse deconvolution as a forward scalar optimization for the first time, which drastically increases the solution stability and the computational efficiency. Finally, the dwell time solution is improved by a robust iterative refinement and a total dwell time reduction scheme. The superiority and general applicability of the proposed algorithm are verified on the simulations of different CCOS processes. A real application of UDO in improving a synchrotron X-ray mirror using Ion Beam Figuring (IBF) is then demonstrated. The simulation indicates that the estimated residual in the 92.3 mm × 15.7 mm CA can be reduced from 6.32 nm Root Mean Square (RMS) to 0.20 nm RMS in 3.37 min. After one IBF process, the measured residual in the CA converges to 0.19 nm RMS, which coincides with the simulation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Modeling an Application's Theoretical Minimum and Average Transactional Response Times

The theoretical minimum transactional response time of an application serves as a basis for the expected response time. The lower threshold for the minimum response time represents the minimum amount of time that the application should take to complete a transaction. Knowing the lower threshold is beneficial in detecting anomalies that are results of unsuccessful transactions. On the converse, when an application's response time falls above an upper threshold, there is likely an anomaly in the application that is causing unusual performance issues in the transaction. This report explains how the non-stationary Generalized Extreme Value distribution is used to estimate the lower threshold of an application's daily minimum transactional response time. It also explains how the seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average time series model is used to estimate the upper threshold for an application's average transactional response time.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Analysis of the Breakout Time

The motivation to precisely determine breakout time is to better understand initial motion. An analysis on the baseline is conducted to determine breakout time. The power in the baseline drops by a factor of ~6 after the breakout time occurs. The characteristic rounded step function of the baseline power can be modeled to calculate the breakout time. The characteristic rounded step function of the phase change in the baseline can be modeled to calculate the breakout time. Power and phase both seem to be viable sources that can be used to find breakout time effectively. The phase and power methods complement one another, so whenever one method does not work, the other can still be used. In some cases, the breakout time can be slightly shifted between phase and power. In the future, it would be good to develop a way to quantify the breakout time as well as the associated precision and accuracy.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Dissolved Organic Carbon 14C in Southern Nevada Groundwater and Implications for Groundwater Travel Times

Dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) carbon-14 ( 14 C) ages must be corrected for complex chemical and physical reactions and processes that change the amount of 14 C in groundwater as it flows from recharge to downgradient areas. Because of these reactions, DIC 14 C can produce unrealistically old ages and long groundwater travel times that may, or may not, agree with travel times estimated by other methods. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) 14 C ages are often younger than DIC 14 C ages because there are few chemical reactions or physical processes that change the amount of DOC 14 C in groundwater. However, there are several issues that create uncertainty in DOC 14 C groundwater ages including limited knowledge of the initial (A 0 ) DOC 14 C in groundwater recharge and potential changes in DOC composition as water moves through an aquifer. This study examines these issues by quantifying A 0 DOC 14 C in recharge areas of southern Nevada groundwater flow systems and by evaluating changes in DOC composition as water flows from recharge areas to downgradient areas. The effect of these processes on DOC 14 C groundwater ages is evaluated and DOC and DIC 14 C ages are then compared along several southern Nevada groundwater flow paths. Twenty-seven groundwater samples were collected from springs and wells in southern Nevada in upgradient, midgradient, and downgradient locations. DOC 14 C for upgradient samples ranged from 96 to 120 percent modern carbon (pmc) with an average of 106 pmc, verifying modern DOC 14 C ages in recharge areas, which decreases uncertainty in DOC 14 C A 0 values, groundwater ages, and travel times. The HPLC spectra of groundwater along a flow path in the Spring Mountains show the same general pattern indicating that the DOC compound composition does not change along this flow path. Although DOC concentration decreases from recharge-area to downgradient groundwater, the organic compounds are similar, indicating that DOC 14 C is unaffected by other processes such as microbial degradation. A small amount of organic carbon was leached from crushed volcanic and carbonate aquifer outcrop rock in rock-leaching experiments. The leached DOC was high in 14 C (75 pmc carbonate rocks, 91 pmc volcanic) suggesting that the leached DOC likely came from microbes in the rock samples. The small amount of DOC and high 14 C indicates that the amount of old organic carbon in these rocks is low so there should be minimal impact on groundwater DOC 14 C ages. Based on the results from this study, DOC 14 C ages do not require additional corrections. Several correction models were applied to DIC 14 C ages to correct for water-rock reactions along two carbonate and two volcanic flow paths and the corresponding travel times were compare to DOC 14 C travel times. The DOC 14 C travel times were hundreds to thousands of years shorter than uncorrected and corrected DIC 14 C travel times except for the upper section of one carbonate flow path. DOC 14 C travel times ranged from 400 to 5,400 years as compared to DIC 14 C that ranged from modern to 20,900 years. The DIC 14 C ages are greatly influenced by carbonate mineral and gas reactions and other processes such as matrix diffusion, isotope exchange, or adsorption, which are not always adequately accounted for in DIC 14 C groundwater age correction models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Experimental Constraints of the Exotic Shearing of Space-Time

The Holometer program is a search for rst experimental evidence that space-time has quantum structure. The detector consists of a pair of co-located 40-m power-recycled interferometers whose outputs are read out synchronously at 50 MHz, achieving sensitivity to spatiallycorrelated uctuations in dierential position on time scales shorter than the light-crossing time of the instruments. Unlike gravitational wave interferometers, which time-resolve transient geometrical disturbances in the spatial background, the Holometer is searching for a universal, stationary quantization noise of the background itself. This dissertation presents the nal results of the Holometer Phase I search, an experiment congured for sensitivity to exotic coherent shearing uctuations of space-time. Measurements of high-frequency cross-spectra of the interferometer signals obtain sensitivity to spatially-correlated eects far exceeding any previous measurement, in a broad frequency band extending to 7.6 MHz, twice the inverse light-crossing time of the apparatus. This measurement is the statistical aggregation of 2.1 petabytes of 2-byte dierential position measurements obtained over a month-long exposure time. At 3 signicance, it places an upper limit on the coherence scale of spatial shear two orders of magnitude below the Planck length. The result demonstrates the viability of this novel spatially-correlated interferometric detection technique to reach unprecedented sensitivity to coherent deviations of space-time from classicality, opening the door for direct experimental tests of theories of relational quantum gravity.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Computational time-resolved and resonant x-ray scattering of strongly correlated materials

Basic-Energy Sciences of the Department of Energy (BES/DOE) has made large investments in x-ray sources in the U.S. (NSLS-II, LCLS, NGLS, ALS, APS) as powerful enabling tools for opening up unprecedented new opportunities for exploring properties of matter at various length and time scales. The coming online of the pulsed photon source, literally allows us to see and follow the dynamics of processes in materials at their natural timescales. There is an urgent need therefore to develop theoretical methodologies and computational models for understanding how x-rays interact with matter and the related spectroscopies of materials. The present project addressed aspects of this grand challenge of x-ray science. In particular, our Collaborative Research Team (CRT) focused on developing viable computational schemes for modeling x-ray scattering and photoemission spectra of strongly correlated materials in the time-domain. The vast arsenal of formal/numerical techniques and approaches encompassed by the members of our CRT were brought to bear through appropriate generalizations and extensions to model the pumped state and the dynamics of this non-equilibrium state, and how it can be probed via x-ray absorption (XAS), emission (XES), resonant and non-resonant x-ray scattering, and photoemission processes. We explored the conceptual connections between the time-domain problems and other second-order spectroscopies, such as resonant inelastic x-ray scattering (RIXS) because RIXS may be effectively thought of as a pump-probe experiment in which the incoming photon acts as the pump, and the fluorescent decay is the probe. Alternatively, when the core-valence interactions are strong, one can view K-edge RIXS for example, as the dynamic response of the material to the transient presence of a strong core-hole potential. Unlike an actual pump-probe experiment, here there is no mechanism for adjusting the time-delay between the pump and the probe. However, the core hole predominantly decays via Auger processes, thereby providing an internal time-scale, which limits intermediate-state processes to timescales of a few femtoseconds. Accordingly, a number of activities directed at modeling K-, L- and M-edge RIXS in correlated materials were also pursused by our CRT. Our research effort supported by this CMCSN grant substantially advanced the understanding of x-ray scattering processes in the time-domain as well as in the more conventional scattering channels, including time-resolved photoemission, and how such processes can be modeled realistically in complex correlated materials more generally. The modeling of relaxation processes involved in time-domain spectroscopies is important also for understanding photoinduced effects such as energy conversion in photosynthesis and solar cell applications, and thus impacts the basic science for energy needs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Time-varying value of electric energy efficiency

Electric energy efficiency resources save energy and may reduce peak demand. Historically, quantification of energy efficiency benefits has largely focused on the economic value of energy savings during the first year and lifetime of the installed measures. Due in part to the lack of publicly available research on end-use load shapes (i.e., the hourly or seasonal timing of electricity savings) and energy savings shapes, consideration of the impact of energy efficiency on peak demand reduction (i.e., capacity savings) has been more limited. End-use load research and the hourly valuation of efficiency savings are used for a variety of electricity planning functions, including load forecasting, demand-side management and evaluation, capacity and demand response planning, long-term resource planning, renewable energy integration, assessing potential grid modernization investments, establishing rates and pricing, and customer service. This study reviews existing literature on the time-varying value of energy efficiency savings, provides examples in four geographically diverse locations of how consideration of the time-varying value of efficiency savings impacts the calculation of power system benefits, and identifies future research needs to enhance the consideration of the time-varying value of energy efficiency in cost-effectiveness screening analysis. Findings from this study include: -The time-varying value of individual energy efficiency measures varies across the locations studied because of the physical and operational characteristics of the individual utility system (e.g., summer or winter peaking, load factor, reserve margin) as well as the time periods during which savings from measures occur. -Across the four locations studied, some of the largest capacity benefits from energy efficiency are derived from the deferral of transmission and distribution system infrastructure upgrades. However, the deferred cost of such upgrades also exhibited the greatest range in value of all the components of avoided costs across the locations studied. -Of the five energy efficiency measures studied, those targeting residential air conditioning in summer-peaking electric systems have the most significant added value when the total time-varying value is considered. -The increased use of rooftop solar systems, storage, and demand response, and the addition of electric vehicles and other major new electricity-consuming end uses are anticipated to significantly alter the load shape of many utility systems in the future. Data used to estimate the impact of energy efficiency measures on electric system peak demands will need to be updated periodically to accurately reflect the value of savings as system load shapes change. -Publicly available components of electric system costs avoided through energy efficiency are not uniform across states and utilities. Inclusion or exclusion of these components and differences in their value affect estimates of the time-varying value of energy efficiency. -Publicly available data on end-use load and energy savings shapes are limited, are concentrated regionally, and should be expanded.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Margins Associated with Loss of Assured Safety for Systems with Multiple Time-Dependent Failure Modes.

Representations for margins associated with loss of assured safety (LOAS) for weak link (WL)/strong link (SL) systems involving multiple time-dependent failure modes are developed. The following topics are described: (i) defining properties for WLs and SLs, (ii) background on cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) for link failure time, link property value at link failure, and time at which LOAS occurs, (iii) CDFs for failure time margins defined by (time at which SL system fails) – (time at which WL system fails), (iv) CDFs for SL system property values at LOAS, (v) CDFs for WL/SL property value margins defined by (property value at which SL system fails) – (property value at which WL system fails), and (vi) CDFs for SL property value margins defined by (property value of failing SL at time of SL system failure) – (property value of this SL at time of WL system failure). Included in this presentation is a demonstration of a verification strategy based on defining and approximating the indicated margin results with (i) procedures based on formal integral representations and associated quadrature approximations and (ii) procedures based on algorithms for sampling-based approximations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗