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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,279 records · Page 71
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Multi-physics modeling of grain growth during solidification in electron beam additive manufacturing of Inconel 718

While experimental work has shown promising results regarding control of additive manufacturing metal grain structure, the effects of processing parameters on the grain structure is difficult to understand and predict from experiment alone. To this end, a modeling framework is developed which sequentially couples a macro-scale, semi-analytic thermal model, and a meso-scale, cellular automata-based microstructure model. This framework is applied to electron beam additive manufacturing of Inconel 718 using a complex spot scan pattern. The model shows that, with the same scan pattern, variations in the spot time and electron-beam current produce thermal histories with significant spatial and temporal differences, which then produce complex solidification conditions from the interplay between molten pools in the same layer and subsequent layers, resulting in vastly different grain structures. Additionally, it is noted that the framework can significantly reduce the computational expenses for coupled thermal-metallurgical problems, and has the potential to be used for component level problems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Digital Mirror Langmuir Probe: Field Programmable Gate Array Implementation of Real-Time Langmuir Probe Biasing

High bandwidth, high spatial resolution measurements of electron temperature, density and plasma potential are valuable for resolving turbulence in the boundary plasma of tokamaks. While conventional Langmuir probes can provide such measurements either their temporal or spatial resolution is limited: the former by the sweep rate necessary for obtaining I-V characteristics and the latter by the need to use multiple electrodes, as is the case in triple and double probe configurations. The Mirror Langmuir Probe (MLP) bias technique overcomes these limitations by rapidly switching the voltage on a single electrode cycling between three bias states, each dynamically optimised for the local plasma conditions. The MLP system on Alcator C-Mod used analog circuitry to perform this function, measuring Te, VF, and Isat at 1.1 MSPS. Recently, a new prototype digital MLP controller has been implemented on a Red Pitaya Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) board which reproduces the functionality of the original controller and performs all data acquisition. There is also the potential to provide the plasma parameters externally for use with feedback control systems. The use of FPGA technology means the system is readily customisable at a fraction of the development time and implementation cost. A second Red Pitaya was used to test the MLP by simulating the current response of a physical probe using C-Mod experimental measurements. This project is available as a git repository to facilitate extensibility (e.g. real-time control outputs, more voltage states) and scalability through collaboration.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS1986

The vertical structure of limb hazes in the Martian atmosphere

Vertical distribution and reflectance properties of aerosols in the Martian atmosphere are presented, based on Viking Orbiter images containing the planetary limb. Profiles of scattered light above the limb are used to constrain the temporal and spatial behavior of the aerosols. The data cover a wide range of seasons, locations, and viewing geometries. The typical atmospheric column contains one or more discrete, optically thin, ice-like haze layers between 30 and 90 km elevation, depending on the season, whose composition is inferred to be water ice. Below the detached hazes there is a continuous haze extending to the surface. The continuous haze is rarely above 50 km and is much redder in color than the detached hazes above, implying a composition that has a strong dust component. The aerosol distribution exhibits solid seasonal control inferred to be driven by the variable solar flux around the orbit of Mars.

Jaquin, Fred↗
NASA NTRS1999

The Magnetospheric Multiscale Mission...Resolving Fundamental Processes in Space Plasmas

The Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission is a multiple-spacecraft Solar-Terrestrial Probe designed to study the microphysics of magnetic reconnection, charged particle acceleration, and turbulence in key boundary regions of Earth's magnetosphere. These three processes, which control the flow of energy, mass, and momentum within and across plasma boundaries, occur throughout the universe and are fundamental to our understanding of astrophysical and solar system plasmas. Only in Earth's magnetosphere, however, are they readily accessible for sustained study through in-situ measurement. MMS will employ five co-orbiting spacecraft identically instrumented to measure electric and magnetic fields, plasmas, and energetic particles. The initial parameters of the individual spacecraft orbits will be designed so that the spacecraft formation will evolve into a three-dimensional configuration near apogee, allowing MMS to differentiate between spatial and temporal effects and to determine the three dimensional geometry of plasma, field, and current structures. In order to sample all of the magnetospheric boundary regions, MMS will employ a unique four-phase orbital strategy involving carefully sequenced changes in the local time and radial distance of apogee and, in the third phase, a change in orbit inclination from 10 degrees to 90 degrees. The nominal mission operational lifetime is two years. Launch is currently scheduled for 2006.

Curtis, S.↗
NASA NTRS2002

On the Choice of Variable for Atmospheric Moisture Analysis

The implications of using different control variables for the analysis of moisture observations in a global atmospheric data assimilation system are investigated. A moisture analysis based on either mixing ratio or specific humidity is prone to large extrapolation errors, due to the high variability in space and time of these parameters and to the difficulties in modeling their error covariances. Using the logarithm of specific humidity does not alleviate these problems, and has the further disadvantage that very dry background estimates cannot be effectively corrected by observations. Relative humidity is a better choice from a statistical point of view, because this field is spatially and temporally more coherent and error statistics are therefore easier to obtain. If, however, the analysis is designed to preserve relative humidity in the absence of moisture observations, then the analyzed specific humidity field depends entirely on analyzed temperature changes. If the model has a cool bias in the stratosphere this will lead to an unstable accumulation of excess moisture there. A pseudo-relative humidity can be defined by scaling the mixing ratio by the background saturation mixing ratio. A univariate pseudo-relative humidity analysis will preserve the specific humidity field in the absence of moisture observations. A pseudorelative humidity analysis is shown to be equivalent to a mixing ratio analysis with flow-dependent covariances. In the presence of multivariate (temperature-moisture) observations it produces analyzed relative humidity values that are nearly identical to those produced by a relative humidity analysis. Based on a time series analysis of radiosonde observed-minus-background differences it appears to be more justifiable to neglect specific humidity-temperature correlations (in a univariate pseudo-relative humidity analysis) than to neglect relative humidity-temperature correlations (in a univariate relative humidity analysis). A pseudo-relative humidity analysis is easily implemented in an existing moisture analysis system, by simply scaling observed-minus background moisture residuals prior to solving the analysis equation, and rescaling the analyzed increments afterward.

Dee, Dick P.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Versatile soil gas concentration and isotope monitoring: optimization and integration of novel soil gas probes with online trace gas detection

Abstract. Gas concentrations and isotopic signatures can unveil microbial metabolisms and their responses to environmental changes in soil. Currently, few methods measure in situ soil trace gases such as the products of nitrogen and carbon cycling or volatile organic compounds (VOCs) that constrain microbial biochemical processes like nitrification, methanogenesis, respiration, and microbial communication. Versatile trace gas sampling systems that integrate soil probes with sensitive trace gas analyzers could fill this gap with in situ soil gas measurements that resolve spatial (centimeters) and temporal (minutes) patterns. We developed a system that integrates new porous and hydrophobic sintered polytetrafluoroethylene (sPTFE) diffusive soil gas probes that non-disruptively collect soil gas samples with a transfer system to direct gas from multiple probes to one or more central gas analyzer(s) such as laser and mass spectrometers. Here, we demonstrate the feasibility and versatility of this automated multiprobe system for soil gas measurements of isotopic ratios of nitrous oxide (δ18O, δ15N, and the 15N site preference of N2O), methane, carbon dioxide (δ13C), and VOCs. First, we used an inert silica matrix to challenge probe measurements under controlled gas conditions. By changing and controlling system flow parameters, including the probe flow rate, we optimized recovery of representative soil gas samples while reducing sampling artifacts on subsurface concentrations. Second, we used this system to provide a real-time window into the impact of environmental manipulation of irrigation and soil redox conditions on in situ N2O and VOC concentrations. Moreover, to reveal the dynamics in the stable isotope ratios of N2O (i.e., 14N14N16O, 14N15N16O, 15N14N16O, and 14N14N18O), we developed a new high-precision laser spectrometer with a reduced sample volume demand. Our integrated system – a tunable infrared laser direct absorption spectrometry (TILDAS) in parallel with Vocus proton transfer reaction mass spectrometry (PTR-MS), in line with sPTFE soil gas probes – successfully quantified isotopic signatures for N2O, CO2, and VOCs in real time as responses to changes in the dry–wetting cycle and redox conditions. Broadening the collection of trace gases that can be monitored in the subsurface is critical for monitoring biogeochemical cycles, ecosystem health, and management practices at scales relevant to the soil system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1987

Activity of comet P/Halley 23-25 March, 1986 - IUE observations

A large but gradual increase in the brightness of the emission bands of comet Halley and, thus, in the coma abundance of OH, CS, CO2(+), and dust was observed with the International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE) satellite from Mar. 23 to 25, 1986. This brightness change was also monitored by the Fine Error Sensor (FES) tracking and acquisition camera at a higher temporal resolution than that of the spectrophotometric measurements. The amplitude of the increase varied among the species, depending on the lifetime of the parent molecule. By comparing the FES light curve with the optical light curve measured in the light of C2 by Millis and Schleicher (1986), it can be shown that this increase in brightness corresponds to part of the periodic light curve of the comet. None of the IUE observations show evidence of the large increase in H2O reported to have occurred on March 24.7 by Weaver et al. (1986). It is concluded that the activity reported here is controlled primarily by photodissociation and ionization of molecules ejected form an active area of the nucleus that rotates into the field of view of the sun approximately every 7.4 days.

Mcfadden, L. A.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Fundamental insights on ignition and combustion of natural gas in an active fueled pre-chamber spark-ignition system

Pre-chamber spark-ignition (PCSI), either fueled or non-fueled, is a leading concept with the potential to enable diesel-like efficiency in medium-duty (MD) and heavy-duty (HD) natural gas (NG) engines. However, the inadequate scientific base and simulation tools to describe/predict the underlying processes governing PCSI systems is one of the key barriers to market penetration of PCSI for MD/HD NG engines. To this end, experiments were performed in a heavy-duty, optical, single-cylinder engine fitted with an active fueled PCSI module. Furthermore, the spatial and temporal progress of ignition and subsequent combustion of lean-burn natural gas using PCSI system were studied using optical diagnostic imaging and heat release analysis based on main-chamber and pre-chamber pressure measurements.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2015

Visualization of a Sweeping Jet by Laser Speckle Retro-reflective Background Oriented Schlieren

Sweeping jet actuators are currently being studied as a method of active flow control to increase the performance of wings and tails. Computational Fluid Dynamics simulations show that the jet does not sweep at a constant rate, instead spending more time at the minimum and maximum of its extent. As part of a test done to provide dynamic flow measurements for Computation Fluid Dynamics validation in NASA Ames Fluid Mechanics Lab, Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) was performed on a single sweeping jet actuator designed by NASA and Boeing that was inset in a small airfoil. However, even at low jet pressures, the PIV could not be acquired at high enough frequencies to both spatially and temporally resolve the stickiness of the jet motion. Therefore, a small portion of the PIV laser was picked off and used to acquire flow visualization at higher frequencies through a new technique, laser speckle Retroreflective Background Oriented Schlieren (RBOS).

sweeping jet actuator↗
DOE OSTI2020

Environmental control on the distribution of metabolic strategies of benthic microbial mats in Lake Fryxell, Antarctica

Ecological theories posit that heterogeneity in environmental conditions greatly affects community structure and function. However, the degree to which ecological theory developed using plant- and animal-dominated systems applies to microbiomes is unclear. Investigating the metabolic strategies found in microbiomes are particularly informative for testing the universality of ecological theories because microorganisms have far wider metabolic capacity than plants and animals. We used metagenomic analyses to explore the relationships between the energy and physicochemical gradients in Lake Fryxell and the metabolic capacity of its benthic microbiome. Statistical analysis of the relative abundance of metabolic marker genes and gene family diversity shows that oxygenic photosynthesis, carbon fixation, and flavin-based electron bifurcation differentiate mats growing in different environmental conditions. The pattern of gene family diversity points to the likely importance of temporal environmental heterogeneity in addition to resource gradients. Overall, we found that the environmental heterogeneity of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and oxygen concentration ([O2]) in Lake Fryxell provide the framework by which metabolic diversity and composition of the community is structured, in accordance with its phylogenetic structure. The organization of the resulting microbial ecosystems are consistent with the maximum power principle and the species sorting model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

First application of a digital mirror Langmuir probe for real-time plasma diagnosis

We report for the first time, a digital Mirror Langmuir Probe (MLP) has successfully sampled plasma temperature, ion saturation current, and floating potential together on a single probe tip in real time in a radio-frequency driven helicon linear plasma device. This is accomplished by feedback control of the bias sweep to ensure a good fit to I–V characteristics with a high frequency, high power digital amplifier, and field-programmable gate array controller. Measurements taken by the MLP were validated by a low speed I–V characteristic manually collected during static plasma conditions. Plasma fluctuations, induced by varying the axial magnetic field($\widetilde{f}$ = 10 Hz), were also successfully monitored with the MLP. Further refinement of the digital MLP pushes it toward a turn-key system that minimizes the time to deployment and lessens the learning curve, positioning the digital MLP as a capable diagnostic for the study of low radio-frequency plasma physics. These demonstrations bolster confidence in fielding such digital MLP diagnostics in magnetic confinement experiments with high spatial and adequate temporal resolution, such as edge plasma, scrape-off layer, and divertor probes.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Monthly Mean In Situ Surface Flux Observations Paired with Satellite-Derived and Reanalysis-Based Flux Data for the Great Lakes Region, 2001–2020

Surface radiative and turbulent heat fluxes over the Great Lakes strongly influence regional hydrological and meteorological processes, and their accurate representation is critical for numerical weather prediction and coupled atmosphere–lake modeling. However, direct flux observations are spatially sparse across the region, so gridded reanalysis and satellite-derived products are often used for climatological analyses and model evaluation despite differences in their flux representations. This dataset provides processed, quality-controlled, monthly mean surface flux observations from the Great Lakes Evaporation Network (GLEN), AmeriFlux, and the National Data Buoy Center, paired with spatiotemporally matched flux estimates from two reanalysis products, the fifth generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis dataset (ERA5) and the Modern Era Reanalysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), and two satellite-derived products, the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy Systems Energy Balanced and Filled (CERES-EBAF) and the Cloud, Albedo and Surface Radiation dataset from AVHRR data - Edition 3 (CLARA-A3). The dataset includes sixteen observational stations with variable temporal coverage within 2001–2020. For each station, a CSV file contains monthly time series of available flux variables, including surface downwelling shortwave radiation (SW), surface downwelling longwave radiation (LW), sensible heat (SH) flux, and latent heat flux (LH), alongside matched gridded product values where available. Columns in the CSV file correspond to different variables sourced from each dataset, with column titles structured as "{dataset}_{variable}". Columns with relevant metadata are also provided in each CSV file, including station latitude and longitude, monthly timestamps, and the name of the sourced observational data. These files are structured for direct use in common analysis tools, including Microsoft Excel, Python pandas, and Python matplotlib. This dataset supports climatological analysis of the Great Lakes regional surface energy budget, evaluation of satellite-derived and reanalysis-based flux products, and development or validation of flux representations in numerical weather prediction and coupled atmosphere–lake models.

Great Lakes↗
DOE OSTI2022

First application of a digital mirror Langmuir probe for real-time plasma diagnosis

For the first time, a digital Mirror Langmuir probe (MLP) has successfully sampled plasma temperature, ion saturation current, and floating potential together on a single probe tip in real time in a radio-frequency driven helicon linear plasma device. This is accomplished by feedback control of the bias sweep to ensure a good fit to I-V characteristics with a high frequency, high power digital amplifier and field-programmable gate array (FPGA) controller. Measurements taken by the MLP were validated by a low speed I-V characteristic manually collected during static plasma conditions. Plasma fluctuations, induced by varying the axial magnetic field (f̃ = 10 Hz), were also successfully monitored with the MLP. Further refinement of the digital MLP pushes it towards a turn-key system that minimizes the time to deployment and lessens the learning curve, positioning the digital MLP as a capable diagnostic for the study of low radio-frequency plasma physics. These demonstrations bolster confidence in fielding such digital MLP diagnostics in magnetic confinement experiments with high spatial and adequate temporal resolution such as edge plasma, scrape-off layer, and divertor probes.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS1992

Microbeam studies of the sensitivity of structures within living cells

Determining the biological effects of low doses of radiation with high linear energy transfer (LET) is complicated by the stochastic nature of charged-particle interactions. Populations of cells exposed to very low radiation doses contain a few cells which have been hit by a charged particle, while the majority of the cells receive no radiation damage. At somewhat higher doses, a few cells receive two or more events. Because the effects of damage produced by separate events can interact in the cell, we have had to make assumptions about the nature of these interactions in order to interpret the results of the experiments. Many of those assumptions can be tested if we can be sure of the number of charged-particle events which occur in individual cells, and correlate this number with the biological effect. We have developed a special irradiation facility at Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) to control the actual number of charged particle tracks that pass through cell nuclei. The beam from a 2 MeV tandem accelerator is collimated to approximately 5 microns. Cells, grown in special dishes with 1.5 microns thick plastic bottoms, are positioned so that the desired portion of the cell aligns with the collimator. A shutter in the beam line is opened and closed after the desired number of particle tracks has been counted. This approach can be used to investigate the effects of the interaction between irradiated and unirradiated cells in an organized system, as well as to study the effects of spatial and temporal distribution of radiation damage within single cells.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS).

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS2005

Spatial Predictive Modeling and Remote Sensing of Land Use Change in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

This project was focused on modeling the processes by which increasing demand for developed land uses, brought about by changes in the regional economy and the socio-demographics of the region, are translated into a changing spatial pattern of land use. Our study focused on a portion of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed where the spatial patterns of sprawl represent a set of conditions generally prevalent in much of the U.S. Working in the region permitted us access to (i) a time-series of multi-scale and multi-temporal (including historical) satellite imagery and (ii) an established network of collaborating partners and agencies willing to share resources and to utilize developed techniques and model results. In addition, a unique parcel-level tax assessment database and linked parcel boundary maps exists for two counties in the Maryland portion of this region that made it possible to establish a historical cross-section time-series database of parcel level development decisions. Scenario analyses of future land use dynamics provided critical quantitative insight into the impact of alternative land management and policy decisions. These also have been specifically aimed at addressing growth control policies aimed at curbing exurban (sprawl) development. Our initial technical approach included three components: (i) spatial econometric modeling of the development decision, (ii) remote sensing of suburban change and residential land use density, including comparisons of past change from Landsat analyses and more traditional sources, and (iii) linkages between the two through variable initialization and supplementation of parcel level data. To these we added a fourth component, (iv) cellular automata modeling of urbanization, which proved to be a valuable addition to the project. This project has generated both remote sensing and spatially explicit socio-economic data to estimate and calibrate the parameters for two different types of land use change models and has undertaken analyses of these models. One (the CA model) is driven largely by observations on past patterns of land use change, while the other (the EC model) is driven by mechanisms of the land use change decision at the parcel level. Our project may be the first serious attempt at developing both types of models for the same area, using as much common data as possible. We have identified the strengths and weaknesses of the two approaches and plan to continue to revise each model in the light of new data and new lessons learned through continued collaboration. Questions, approaches, findings, publication and presentation lists concerning the research are also presented.

Goetz, Scott J.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Total Lightning Observations of Extreme Weather Events over the Contiguous United States

The overall objective is to investigate total lightning characteristics of extreme weather events over the contiguous United States (CONUS) using TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) LIS (Lightning Image Sensor) and OTD (Optical Transient Detector) satellite observations. A large LIS (10+ years) and OTD (5 years) data base is available to study the instantaneous total or cloud-to-ground (CG) plus intracloud (IC) lightning characteristics of extreme weather events. More specifically, the LIS and OTD data are combined with National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) observations to examine the total and CG lightning flash rate and density, the IC:CG ratio, and positive CG percentage. These instantaneous lightning characteristics can be used for basic science studies to better understand the physical and dynamical linkages between lightning and precipitation and their environmental controls. They can also provide a first-look of extreme weather events leading up to future satellite observations (e.g., NOAA GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper [GLM]) for use in climate studies and the short-term prediction and warning process. Extreme weather events are defined by the NOAA Storm Data reports of tornadoes, large hail (at least 0.75 inch) and strong straight-line winds (at least 50 kts). Over CONUS, there are over 70,000 severe storm reports in the TRMM spatial domain (< 35 N) from 1998-2007 and over 100,000 storm reports in the OTD spatial domain (5/1995-4/2000). Temporal co-location is on the order of 1% (i.e., 1000 s of coincident overpasses), providing a statistically significant sample of instantaneous total lightning properties. This instantaneous behavior of lightning in extreme weather is then compared to that of typical thunderstorm events, or randomly sampled LIS/OTD events in which the extreme events have been eliminated from the population. Results describing the instantaneous behavior of total lightning within a large sample of extreme and typical thunderstorms over CONUS will be presented. When possible, coincident VHF lightning observations from the ground-based Northern Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) are compared to the LIS/OTD optical lightning signatures, providing a validation source for instantaneous space-based optical lightning properties and a means to extend lightning inferences over the life-cycle of extreme weather.

Carey, Lawrence D.↗
NASA NTRS2013

The Geospace Dynamics Observatory; A Paradigm Changing Geospace Mission

The Geospace Dynamics Observatory (GDO) mission observes the near-Earth region in space called Geospace with unprecedented resolution, scale and sensitivity. At a distance of 60 Earth Radii (Re) in a near-polar circular orbit and a approx. 27-day period, GDO images the earth's full disk with (1) a three-channel far ultraviolet imager, (2) an extreme ultraviolet imager of the plasmasphere, and (3) a spectrometer in the near to far ultraviolet range that probes any portion of the disk and simultaneously observes the limb. The exceptional capabilities of the GDO mission include (1) unprecedented improvement in signal to noise for globalscale imaging of Earth's space environment that enable changes in the Earth's space environment to be resolved with orders of magnitude higher in temporal and spatial resolution compared to existing data and other approaches, and (2) unrivaled capability for resolving the temporal evolution, over many days, in local time or latitude with a continuous view of Earth's global-scale evolution while simultaneously capturing the changes at scales smaller than are possible with other methods. This combination of new capabilities is a proven path to major scientific advances and discoveries. The GDO mission (1) has the first full disk imagery of the density and composition variability that exist during disturbed "storm" periods and the circulation systems of the upper atmosphere, (2) is able to image the ionosphere on a global and long time scale basis, (3) is able to probe the mechanisms that control the evolution of planetary atmospheres, and (4) is able to test our understanding of how the Earth is connected to the Sun. This paper explores the optical and technical aspects of the GDO mission and the implementation strategy. Additionally, the case will be made that GDO addresses a significant portion of the priority mission science articulated in the recent Solar and Space Physics Decadal Survey.

Spann, James↗
NASA NTRS2017

Detection of Vegetation Trends in Highly Variable Environments After Grazing Exclusion in Mongolia

Aims: Environmental variability (e.g. in precipitation) has a large effect on vegetation dynamics, and this often makes it difficult to assess the recovery of vegetation after a disturbance. In this study, we assessed vegetation recovery trends in response to grazing exclusion while considering for the annual environmental variability. Location: Two regions with highly variable precipitation: a steppe near Mandalgobi, in Mongolia's Central Gobi province, and a desert steppe near Bulgan, in Mongolia's South Gobi province. Methods: Changes in vegetation were observed along grazing gradients at the above two sites, and vegetation thresholds were identified. We established reference plots in pre-threshold areas along the grazing gradients. We removed the impact of livestock grazing at various locations along the grazing gradients by establishing exclosures, and investigated vegetation from 2005 to 2013. We developed a smoothed hierarchical model within a Bayesian framework, and examined the effect of grazing exclusion on vegetation, focusing especially on the extent of grass cover recovery. In addition, we compared soil nutrient conditions in the reference plots and inside and outside each exclosure along the grazing gradients. Results: Temporal trends in the cover of perennial grass in each plot inside and outside of the exclosures largely coincided, irrespective of grazing intensity, and exclosure had no effect (Bulgan) or a negative effect (Mandalgobi) on vegetation recovery. Soil nutrient content was not significantly affected by exclosure at a given distance from the grazing source, but decreased significantly with decreasing grazing intensity. Thus, recovery of the land from a post-threshold state may not be apparent even after 9 yr of grazing exclusion in environments with highly variable precipitation. Conclusion: The effect of exclosure duration on perennial grass cover was limited, even after controlling for environmental variability. Once a vegetation threshold has been crossed, merely removing livestock from the landscape may not be sufficient for that area to recover.

Bayesian statistics;Drought;Environmental variabil↗