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At least 1,279 records · Page 71

Monitoring a Complex Physical System using a Hybrid Dynamic Bayes Net

The Reverse Water Gas Shift system (RWGS) is a complex physical system designed to produce oxygen from the carbon dioxide atmosphere on Mars. If sent to Mars, it would operate without human supervision, thus requiring a reliable automated system for monitoring and control. The RWGS presents many challenges typical of real-world systems, including: noisy and biased sensors, nonlinear behavior, effects that are manifested over different time granularities, and unobservability of many important quantities. In this paper we model the RWGS using a hybrid (discrete/continuous) Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN), where the state at each time slice contains 33 discrete and 184 continuous variables. We show how the system state can be tracked using probabilistic inference over the model. We discuss how to deal with the various challenges presented by the RWGS, providing a suite of techniques that are likely to be useful in a wide range of applications. In particular, we describe a general framework for dealing with nonlinear behavior using numerical integration techniques, extending the successful Unscented Filter. We also show how to use a fixed-point computation to deal with effects that develop at different time scales, specifically rapid changes occuring during slowly changing processes. We test our model using real data collected from the RWGS, demonstrating the feasibility of hybrid DBNs for monitoring complex real-world physical systems.

Lerner, Uri↗

Transit Habitat Government-Reference Conceptual Design Reaction Control System Propulsion Concept Design Data Book

The function of Transit Habitat (TH) Reaction Control System (RCS) propulsion is to provide free-flying spacecraft capabilities and to augment Gateway stack control when docked on Gateway. The requirements of multiple propellant replenishments and extensive life operation have significant impacts on selection of the propulsion system concept and components for the RCS. The intent of this document is to provide insight into the government-reference conceptual design of a propulsion system for TH element. A pressure-fed hypergolic bi-propellant system is the assumed propulsion approach for the RCS. Its architectural concept is being traded within the NASA Moon to Mars architecture. A pressure-regulated system is examined. The propellants under consideration are Monomethyl Hydrazine (MMH) and Mixed Oxides of Nitrogen with 3% Nitric Oxide (MON3). A peer review was conducted to assess the flow schematic design and propulsion component selection, compliant with a set of assumed requirements. Redundant components to satisfy one-fault tolerance for function and two-fault tolerance against catastrophic events are incorporated in the propulsion concept design. Instrumentation laid out on the schematic would be used to gather data to monitor the health of the propulsion system and to support quantity gauging of the propulsion system fluids. Venting propellant ullage gas overboard during the refilling operations poses a significant concern to the external surfaces of the TH. A liquid/gas separator would be required to eliminate, or at least reduce, the amount of liquid propellant expelled in the vent gas mixture. The technology readiness level of the phase separator for the TH must be advanced. Metal diaphragm and non-positive-expulsion PMD propellant tank systems were traded against each other, with the PMD architecture being selected. A blowdown concept is also considered for the TH RCS propulsion. Its fluid schematic is derived from the pressure-regulated schematic with removal of assemblies involving the helium pressurization and ullage venting. Its system wet mass is 10% heavier than the pressure-regulated due to thruster performance loss and larger propellant tanks. There is no firm constraint on the propulsion system mass at this phase of the design. The blowdown concept can offer reduction in component count and operation, that would lead to a more reliable propulsion system. The blowdown concept would also benefit avionics, thermal, power, and structures on the TH. Assessing these benefits will be carried as a future work. Drawbacks of thrust and minimum impulse bit (MIB) variations due to the blowdown operation would be acceptable to Guidance, Navigation, and Control (GNC). Although the blowdown concept has been selected as a current baseline, further evaluation of the concept will be the subject of future work to ensure that the blowdown propulsion operation is appropriate for the HT RCS propulsion. This document also highlights key trade studies and design decisions, including pros and cons of the selected concept. Other appropriate options for components are pointed out for future assessments. Additional background information and documents for further review are referenced in this report.

spacecraft propulsion↗

Development of a Safe, Reliable, and Versatile Explosive Demolition Initiation System

Demolition contractors have a need to simultaneously detonate many demolition charges safely, cheaply, and reliably. An explosive distribution company has contracted the Initiation Systems Group at Lawrence Livermore Laboratory as consultants. The task is to develop a new, safer initiation system to detonate anywhere from 1 to 2000 demolition charges. The primary user of the system will be the explosive demolition contractors.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Airborne Coherent Lidar for Advanced In-Flight Measurements (ACLAIM) Flight Testing of the Lidar Sensor

The purpose of the ACLAIM program is ultimately to establish the viability of light detection and ranging (lidar) as a forward-looking sensor for turbulence. The goals of this flight test are to: 1) demonstrate that the ACLAIM lidar system operates reliably in a flight test environment, 2) measure the performance of the lidar as a function of the aerosol backscatter coefficient (beta), 3) use the lidar system to measure atmospheric turbulence and compare these measurements to onboard gust measurements, and 4) make measurements of the aerosol backscatter coefficient, its probability distribution and spatial distribution. The scope of this paper is to briefly describe the ACLAIM system and present examples of ACLAIM operation in flight, including comparisons with independent measurements of wind gusts, gust-induced normal acceleration, and the derived eddy dissipation rate.

Soreide, David C.↗

Model Based Mission Assurance: Emerging Opportunities for Robotic Systems

The emergence of Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) in a Model Based Engineering framework has created new opportunities to improve effectiveness and efficiencies across the assurance functions. The MBSE environment supports not only system architecture development, but provides for support of Systems Safety, Reliability and Risk Analysis concurrently in the same framework. Linking to detailed design will further improve assurance capabilities to support failures avoidance and mitigation in flight systems. This also is leading new assurance functions including model assurance and management of uncertainty in the modeling environment. Further, the assurance cases, a structured hierarchal argument or model, are emerging as a basis for supporting a comprehensive viewpoint in which to support Model Based Mission Assurance (MBMA).

Mission Assurance↗

Trade Studies of Space Launch Architectures using Modular Probabilistic Risk Analysis

A top-down risk assessment in the early phases of space exploration architecture development can provide understanding and intuition of the potential risks associated with new designs and technologies. In this approach, risk analysts draw from their past experience and the heritage of similar existing systems as a source for reliability data. This top-down approach captures the complex interactions of the risk driving parts of the integrated system without requiring detailed knowledge of the parts themselves, which is often unavailable in the early design stages. Traditional probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) technologies, however, suffer several drawbacks that limit their timely application to complex technology development programs. The most restrictive of these is a dependence on static planning scenarios, expressed through fault and event trees. Fault trees incorporating comprehensive mission scenarios are routinely constructed for complex space systems, and several commercial software products are available for evaluating fault statistics. These static representations cannot capture the dynamic behavior of system failures without substantial modification of the initial tree. Consequently, the development of dynamic models using fault tree analysis has been an active area of research in recent years. This paper discusses the implementation and demonstration of dynamic, modular scenario modeling for integration of subsystem fault evaluation modules using the Space Architecture Failure Evaluation (SAFE) tool. SAFE is a C++ code that was originally developed to support NASA s Space Launch Initiative. It provides a flexible framework for system architecture definition and trade studies. SAFE supports extensible modeling of dynamic, time-dependent risk drivers of the system and functions at the level of fidelity for which design and failure data exists. The approach is scalable, allowing inclusion of additional information as detailed data becomes available. The tool performs a Monte Carlo analysis to provide statistical estimates. Example results of an architecture system reliability study are summarized for an exploration system concept using heritage data from liquid-fueled expendable Saturn V/Apollo launch vehicles.

Mathias, Donovan L.↗

Grid Capacity – What is it, what determines it, does one number work, and how does it relate to electric vehicles?

Grid capacity is effectively how much power the system can reliably deliver, whether that is to serve loads (load service capacity) or accept generation (hosting capacity). Grid capacity can also mean different things at different scales. On the whole power system, grid capacity may be the maximum amount of power generation available. For a specific region, grid capacity may be limited by how much power the transmission and distribution lines can safely carry to that region. At the feeder level, it may be how much photovoltaic generation can be included before reliability or operations are impacted. At the end-use or residential level, grid capacity may be the size of the service breaker for that house.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Performance of Photovoltaic Systems Recorded by Open Solar Performance and Reliability Clearinghouse (oSPARC)

This article analyzes data from 2,200 photovoltaic systems collected through the Open Solar Performance and Reliability Clearinghouse (oSPARC, 2018) to draw conclusions about the measured performance of the systems, how it compares to expectations, and how wide the variation is. The systems range in size from 2 kW to 1,200 kW, with an average size of 229 kW, and were activated in oSPARC between March 13, 2007 and Dec. 16, 2016. Data regarding co-incident insolation and ambient temperature are provided through the oSPARC platform for the population of systems and summarized here. Results indicate that - after correcting for measured insolation, derating for temperature, and correcting for balance-of-system efficiency and degradation as a result of system age - the performance ratio of these 2,200 systems averages 91.7%. Adjusting for known parameters such as age and efficiency, the ratio would ideally be 100%. Thus, the 'underperformance' of this system sample is measured at 9.3% and suggests that as much as 9.3% could be recovered if the systems were caused to perform as expected through optimal operation and maintenance. Efforts to correlate the performance ratio with environmental conditions resulted in very low coefficients of regression, but the method already normalizes for actual site insolation and temperature, which are responsible for much of the site-specific variation. An exemption is air-quality nonattainment areas, where the measured performance of plants averages 86.9% and is consistently lower than the average of 95.9% in areas that are in compliance with air quality standards, likely because of particulate matter such as diesel soot exacerbating the soiling rate.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Wireless Instrumentation System and Power Management Scheme Therefore

A wireless instrumentation system enables a plurality of low power wireless transceivers to transmit measurement data from a plurality of remote station sensors to a central data station accurately and reliably. The system employs a relay based communications scheme where remote stations that cannot communicate directly with the central station due to interference, poor signal strength, etc., are instructed to communicate with other of the remote stations that act as relays to the central station. A unique power management scheme is also employed to minimize power usage at each remote station and thereby maximize battery life. Each of the remote stations prefembly employs a modular design to facilitate easy reconfiguration of the stations as required.

Perotti, Jose↗

SNS Credited Beam Power Limit System Preliminary Design

The Controls Group at the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) is designing a programmable signal processor based credited safety control that calculates pulsed beam power based on beam kinetic energy and charge. The system must reliably shut off the beam if the average power exceeds 2.145 MW averaged over 60 seconds. This paper discusses architecture and design choices needed to develop the system under the auspices of a programmable radiation-safety credit control.

Deibele, Craig↗

An aircraft sensor fault tolerant system

The design of a sensor fault tolerant system which uses analytical redundancy for the Terminal Configured Vehicle (TCV) research aircraft in a Microwave Landing System (MLS) environment was studied. The fault tolerant system provides reliable estimates for aircraft position, velocity, and attitude in the presence of possible failures in navigation aid instruments and onboard sensors. The estimates, provided by the fault tolerant system, are used by the automated guidance and control system to land the aircraft along a prescribed path. Sensor failures are identified by utilizing the analytic relationship between the various sensor outputs arising from the aircraft equations of motion.

Caglayan, A. K.↗

Miniature X-Ray Bone Densitometer

The purpose of the Dual Energy X-ray Absorptiometry (DEXA) project is to design, build, and test an advanced X-ray absorptiometry scanner capable of being used to monitor the deleterious effects of weightlessness on the human musculoskeletal system during prolonged spaceflight. The instrument is based on the principles of dual energy x-ray absorptiometry and is designed not only to measure bone, muscle, and fat masses but also to generate structural information about these tissues so that the effects on mechanical integrity may be assessed using biomechanical principles. A skeletal strength assessment could be particularly important for an astronaut embarking on a remote planet where the consequences of a fragility fracture may be catastrophic. The scanner will employ multiple projection images about the long axis of the scanned subject to provide geometric properties in three dimensions, suitable for a three-dimensional structural analysis of the scanned region. The instrument will employ advanced fabrication techniques to minimize volume and mass (100 kg current target with a long-term goal of 60 kg) of the scanner as appropriate for the space environment, while maintaining the required mechanical stability for high precision measurement. The unit will have the precision required to detect changes in bone mass and geometry as small as 1% and changes in muscle mass as small as 5%. As the system evolves, advanced electronic fabrication technologies such as chip-on-board and multichip modules will be combined with commercial (off-the-shelf) parts to produce a reliable, integrated system which not only minimizes size and weight, but, because of its simplicity, is also cost effective to build and maintain. Additionally, the system is being designed to minimize power consumption. Methods of heat dissipation and mechanical stowage (for the unit when not in use) are being optimized for the space environment.

Charles, Harry K., Jr.↗

Reliability model of a monopropellant auxiliary propulsion system

A mathematical model and associated computer code has been developed which computes the reliability of a monopropellant blowdown hydrazine spacecraft auxiliary propulsion system as a function of time. The propulsion system is used to adjust or modify the spacecraft orbit over an extended period of time. The multiple orbit corrections are the multiple objectives which the auxiliary propulsion system is designed to achieve. Thus the reliability model computes the probability of successfully accomplishing each of the desired orbit corrections. To accomplish this, the reliability model interfaces with a computer code that models the performance of a blowdown (unregulated) monopropellant auxiliary propulsion system. The computer code acts as a performance model and as such gives an accurate time history of the system operating parameters. The basic timing and status information is passed on to and utilized by the reliability model which establishes the probability of successfully accomplishing the orbit corrections.

Greenberg, J. S.↗

Propellant Mass Gauging: Database of Vehicle Applications and Research and Development Studies

Gauging the mass of propellants in a tank in low gravity is not a straightforward task because of the uncertainty of the liquid configuration in the tank and the possibility of there being more than one ullage bubble. Several concepts for such a low-gravity gauging system have been proposed, and breadboard or flight-like versions have been tested in normal gravity or even in low gravity, but at present, a flight-proven reliable gauging system is not available. NASA desired a database of the gauging techniques used in current and past vehicles during ascent or under settled conditions, and during short coasting (unpowered) periods, for both cryogenic and storable propellants. Past and current research and development efforts on gauging systems that are believed to be applicable in low-gravity conditions were also desired. This report documents the results of that survey.

Dodge, Franklin T.↗

Using probabilistic solar power forecasts to inform flexible ramp product procurement for the California ISO

How can independent system operators (ISOs) take advantage of probabilistic solar forecasts to lower generation costs and improve reliability of power systems? We discuss one three-step approach for doing so, focusing on how such forecasts might help the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) prepare unexpected net load ramps, where net load equals gross demand minus wind and solar production. First, we enhance an existing solar forecasting system to provide well-calibrated hours-ahead probabilistic forecasts. We then relate the degree of uncertainty reflected in the forecasted prediction intervals (independent variables) to error distributions for net load ramp forecasts for the CAISO real-time market (dependent variable) using machine learning and quantile regression. Projected ramp forecast errors conditioned on solar uncertainty are translated into flexible ramp requirements that therefore reflect real-time meteorological and solar conditions, improving on typical ISO procedures. Detailed descriptions are provided on the quantile regression and kth-nearest neighbor categorization methods for accomplishing that translation. Finally, a multiple time-scale look-ahead market simulation model is applied to a 118-bus IEEE Reliability Test System, modified to represent the CAISO generation mix and demand distributions. The model runs quantify how solar-conditioned ramp requirements can, first, decrease operating costs by reducing requirements compared to often conservative unconditional methods and, second, decrease generation scarcity events and consequently improve reliability by increasing flexibility requirements at times when unconditional forecast-based requirements understate actual ramp uncertainty. Solar-conditioned ramp requirements are found to reduce generation operating costs by about 2% for the test system (which would be equivalent to over $\$100$ million per year for a CAISO-size system).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Interconnection of Distributed Energy Resources in the Indian Context: IEEE 1547-2018 Adaptation for Locally-Appropriate Grid Code Development

The rapid growth of distributed energy resources (DERs) in India and ambitious renewable energy goals set forth by the Indian government have created the need for appropriate distribution interconnection standards to ensure continued system stability, reliability, and resilience. Existing DER interconnection codes in India, at the time of publishing this report, lack many of the critical grid support functionalities for DERs which may protect bulk system stability, such as event ride-through provisions, frequency droop control, or appropriate trip thresholds given the increasing importance of distributed generation. The formal adoption of IEEE 1547-2018 by the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) marks a significant step towards achieving appropriate interconnection of DERs, though the implementation of such a standard must be accompanied with careful consideration of the current codes, regulations, and operation of the Indian power system. Studies on the performance of the functionalities within 1547-2018, which properly incorporate local operating conditions, can inform decisions related to the adoption and adaptation of the clauses present in the standard. This report outlines several of these key considerations for stakeholders and provides analyses illustrating the performance of grid support functionalities on typical Indian distribution feeders.

1547↗