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At least 1,279 records · Page 71

20% of US electricity from wind will have limited impacts on system efficiency and regional climate

Abstract Impacts from current and future wind turbine (WT) deployments necessary to achieve 20% electricity from wind are analyzed using high resolution numerical simulations over the eastern USA. Theoretical scenarios for future deployments are based on repowering (i.e. replacing with higher capacity WTs) thus avoiding competition for land. Simulations for the contemporary climate and current WT deployments exhibit good agreement with observed electricity generation efficiency (gross capacity factors (CF) from simulations = 45–48%, while net CF for WT installed in 2016 = 42.5%). Under the scenario of quadrupled installed capacity there is a small decrease in system-wide efficiency as indicated by annual mean CF. This difference is approximately equal to that from the two simulation years and may reflect saturation of the wind resource in some areas. WT modify the local near-surface climate in the grid cells where they are deployed. The simulated impact on near-surface climate properties at both the regional and local scales does not increase with increasing WT installed capacity. Climate impacts from WT are modest compared to regional changes induced by historical changes in land cover and to the global temperature perturbation induced by use of coal to generate an equivalent amount of electricity.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Progress Toward a Format Standard for Flight Dynamics Models

In the beginning, there was FORTRAN, and it was... not so good. But it was universal, and all flight simulator equations of motion were coded with it. Then came ACSL, C, Ada, C++, C#, Java, FORTRAN-90, Matlab/Simulink, and a number of other programming languages. Since the halcyon punch card days of 1968, models of aircraft flight dynamics have proliferated in training devices, desktop engineering and development computers, and control design textbooks. With the rise of industry teaming and increased reliance on simulation for procurement decisions, aircraft and missile simulation models are created, updated, and exchanged with increasing frequency. However, there is no real lingua franca to facilitate the exchange of models from one simulation user to another. The current state-of-the-art is such that several staff-months if not staff-years are required to 'rehost' each release of a flight dynamics model from one simulation environment to another one. If a standard data package or exchange format were to be universally adopted, the cost and time of sharing and updating aerodynamics, control laws, mass and inertia, and other flight dynamic components of the equations of motion of an aircraft or spacecraft simulation could be drastically reduced. A 2002 paper estimated over $ 6 million in savings could be realized for one military aircraft type alone. This paper describes the efforts of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA) to develop a standard flight dynamic model exchange standard based on XML and HDF-5 data formats.

Jackson, E. Bruce↗

Parameter Estimation of Spacecraft Fuel Slosh Model

Fuel slosh in the upper stages of a spinning spacecraft during launch has been a long standing concern for the success of a space mission. Energy loss through the movement of the liquid fuel in the fuel tank affects the gyroscopic stability of the spacecraft and leads to nutation (wobble) which can cause devastating control issues. The rate at which nutation develops (defined by Nutation Time Constant (NTC can be tedious to calculate and largely inaccurate if done during the early stages of spacecraft design. Pure analytical means of predicting the influence of onboard liquids have generally failed. A strong need exists to identify and model the conditions of resonance between nutation motion and liquid modes and to understand the general characteristics of the liquid motion that causes the problem in spinning spacecraft. A 3-D computerized model of the fuel slosh that accounts for any resonant modes found in the experimental testing will allow for increased accuracy in the overall modeling process. Development of a more accurate model of the fuel slosh currently lies in a more generalized 3-D computerized model incorporating masses, springs and dampers. Parameters describing the model include the inertia tensor of the fuel, spring constants, and damper coefficients. Refinement and understanding the effects of these parameters allow for a more accurate simulation of fuel slosh. The current research will focus on developing models of different complexity and estimating the model parameters that will ultimately provide a more realistic prediction of Nutation Time Constant obtained through simulation.

Gangadharan, Sathya↗

VME rollback hardware for time warp multiprocessor systems

The purpose of the research effort is to develop and demonstrate innovative hardware to implement specific rollback and timing functions required for efficient queue management and precision timekeeping in multiprocessor discrete event simulations. The previously completed phase 1 effort demonstrated the technical feasibility of building hardware modules which eliminate the state saving overhead of the Time Warp paradigm used in distributed simulations on multiprocessor systems. The current phase 2 effort will build multiple pre-production rollback hardware modules integrated with a network of Sun workstations, and the integrated system will be tested by executing a Time Warp simulation. The rollback hardware will be designed to interface with the greatest number of multiprocessor systems possible. The authors believe that the rollback hardware will provide for significant speedup of large scale discrete event simulation problems and allow multiprocessors using Time Warp to dramatically increase performance.

Robb, Michael J.↗

Disentangling the Black Hole Mass Spectrum with Photometric Microlensing Surveys

Abstract From the formation mechanisms of stars and compact objects to nuclear physics, modern astronomy frequently leverages surveys to understand populations of objects to answer fundamental questions. The population of dark and isolated compact objects in the Galaxy contains critical information related to many of these topics, but is only practically accessible via gravitational microlensing. However, photometric microlensing observables are degenerate for different types of lenses, and one can seldom classify an event as involving either a compact object or stellar lens on its own. To address this difficulty, we apply a Bayesian framework that treats lens type probabilistically and jointly with a lens population model. This method allows lens population characteristics to be inferred despite intrinsic uncertainty in the lens class of any single event. We investigate this method’s effectiveness on a simulated ground-based photometric survey in the context of characterizing a hypothetical population of primordial black holes (PBHs) with an average mass of 30 M ⊙ . On simulated data, our method outperforms current black hole (BH) lens identification pipelines and characterizes different subpopulations of lenses while jointly constraining the PBH contribution to dark matter to ≈25%. Key to robust inference, our method can marginalize over population model uncertainty. We find the lower mass cutoff for stellar origin BHs, a key observable in understanding the BH mass gap, particularly difficult to infer in our simulations. This work lays the foundation for cutting-edge PBH abundance constraints to be extracted from current photometric microlensing surveys.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Skyrmion lattice manipulation with electric currents and thermal gradients in MnSi

The skyrmion lattice (SkL) in MnSi was studied using small-angle neutron scattering and under the influence of a radial electric current in a Corbino geometry. In response to the applied current, the SkL undergoes an angular reorientation with respect to the MnSi crystal lattice. The reorientation is nonmonotonic with increasing current, with the SkL rotating first in one direction and then the other. The SkL reorientation was studied at different sample locations and found to depend on the local current density as inferred from a finite-element analysis. Here, the nonmonotonic response indicates the presence of two competing effects on the SkL, most likely due to the presence of both radial electric and thermal currents. Such a scenario is supported by micromagnetic simulations, which show how these effects can act constructively or destructively to drive the SkL rotation, depending on the direction of the electric current. In addition, the simulations also suggest how the direction of the skyrmion flow may affect the SkL orientation.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Current loop coalescence model of solar flares

A computer simulation and theoretical study of the physical characteristics of the explosive coalescence of current-carrying loops is presented. Characteristics of the explosive coalescence include a large impulsive increase of the kinetic energies of electrons and ions, the simultaneous heating and acceleration of electrons and ions in high and low energy ranges, and a break in the energy spectra of electrons and ions. A characteristic double subpeak structure is found in the quasi-periodic oscillations found in the time profiles of the solar flares of June 7, 1980 and November 26, 1982 which can be explained in terms of the coalescence instability of two current loops.

Tajima, T.↗

A Gigaparsec-scale Hydrodynamic Volume Reconstructed with Deep Learning

The next generation of spectroscopic surveys will map the large-scale structure of the Universe at high redshifts (2 ≤ z ≤ 5) using millions of quasar spectra, enabling major advances in constraining both the standard cosmological model and its extensions. Robust cosmological analyses of these data sets require numerical simulations that both cover gigaparsec volumes and resolve features on ∼10 kpc scales and smaller. However, running such large-volume, high-resolution hydrodynamic simulations is computationally prohibitive. We present a generative deep learning model that enhances a low-resolution, gigaparsec-scale (960 h −1 Mpc) hydrodynamic simulation using a smaller (80 h −1 Mpc) high-resolution input hydrodynamic simulation as training data. The resulting enhanced simulation reproduces the line-of-sight power spectrum to within ∼10% and the three-dimensional power spectrum at the ∼20% level at intermediate to small scales (k ≲ 2 h Mpc −1 ). Our method shows strong promise for producing realistic simulations for cosmological analyses with current surveys such as the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument and upcoming next-generation experiments, but further improvements are needed to accurately recover the large-scale modes. We publicly release the enhanced hydrodynamic simulation, along with a halo catalog from a companion N-body dark matter simulation to support the calibration of data analysis pipelines for these large-scale surveys.

Convolutional neural networks↗

Domain-specific compilers for dynamic simulations of quantum materials on quantum computers

Abstract Simulation of the dynamics of quantum materials is emerging as a promising scientific application for noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) computers. Due to their high gate-error rates and short decoherence times, however, NISQ computers can only produce high-fidelity results for those quantum circuits smaller than some given circuit size. Dynamic simulations, therefore, pose a challenge as current algorithms produce circuits that grow in size with each subsequent time-step of the simulation. This underscores the crucial role of quantum circuit compilers to produce executable quantum circuits of minimal size, thereby maximizing the range of physical phenomena that can be studied within the NISQ fidelity budget. Here, we present two domain-specific (DS) quantum circuit compilers for the Rigetti and IBM quantum computers, specifically designed to compile circuits simulating dynamics under a special class of time-dependent Hamiltonians. The compilers outperform state-of-the-art general-purpose compilers in terms of circuit size reduction by around 25%–30% as well as wall-clock compilation time by around 40% (dependent on system size and simulation time-step). Drawing on heuristic techniques commonly used in artificial intelligence, both compilers scale well with simulation time-step and system size. Code for both compilers is open-source and packaged into a full-stack quantum simulation software with tutorials included for ease of use for future researchers wishing to perform dynamic simulations of quantum materials on quantum computers. As our DS compilers provide significant improvements in both compilation time and simulation fidelity, they provide a building block for accelerating progress toward physical quantum supremacy.

Physics↗

Gutzwiller hybrid quantum-classical computing approach for correlated materials

Rapid progress in noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) computing technology has led to the development of novel resource-efficient hybrid quantum-classical algorithms, such as the variational quantum eigensolver (VQE), that can address open challenges in quantum chemistry, physics, and material science. Proof-of-principle quantum chemistry simulations for small molecules have been demonstrated on NISQ devices. While several approaches have been theoretically proposed for correlated materials, NISQ simulations of interacting periodic models on current quantum devices have not yet been demonstrated. Here, we develop a hybrid quantum-classical simulation framework for correlated electron systems based on the Gutzwiller variational embedding approach. We implement this framework on Rigetti quantum processing units (QPUs) and apply it to the periodic Anderson model, which describes a correlated heavy electron band hybridizing with noninteracting conduction electrons. Our simulation results quantitatively reproduce the known ground state quantum phase diagram including metallic, Kondo and Mott insulating phases. This is the first fully self-consistent hybrid quantum-classical simulation of an infinite correlated lattice model executed on QPUs, demonstrating that the Gutzwiller hybrid quantum-classical embedding framework is a powerful approach to simulate correlated materials on NISQ hardware. This benchmark study also puts forth a concrete pathway towards practical quantum advantage on NISQ devices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Modeling and Simulation Verification, Validation and Accreditation (VV&A): A New Undertaking for the Exploration Systems Mission Directorate

and Accreditation (VV&A) session audience, a snapshot review of the Exploration Space Mission Directorate s (ESMD) investigation into implementation of a modeling and simulation (M&S) VV&A program. The presentation provides some legacy ESMD reference material, including information on the then-current organizational structure, and M&S (Simulation Based Acquisition (SBA)) focus contained therein, to provide a context for the proposed M&S VV&A approach. This reference material briefly highlights the SBA goals and objectives, and outlines FY05 M&S development and implementation consistent with the Subjective Assessment, Constructive Assessment, Operator-in-the-Loop Assessment, Hardware-in-the-Loop Assessment, and In Service Operations Assessment M&S construct, the NASA Exploration Information Ontology Model (NExIOM) data model, and integration with the Windchill-based Integrated Collaborative Environment (ICE). The presentation then addresses the ESMD team s initial conclusions regarding an M&S VV&A program, summarizes the general VV&A implementation approach anticipated, and outlines some of the recognized VV&A program challenges, all within a broader context of the overarching Integrated Modeling and Simulation (IM&S) environment at both the ESMD and Agency (NASA) levels. The presentation concludes with a status on the current M&S organization s progress to date relative to the recommended IM&S implementation activity. The overall presentation was focused to provide, for the Verification, Validation,

Prill, Mark E.↗

Three-dimensional feedback processes in current-driven metal

Using three-dimensional (3D) magnetohydrodynamic simulations, we study how a pit on a metal surface evolves when driven by intense electrical current density j. Redistribution of j around the pit initiates a feedback loop: j both reacts to and alters the electrical conductivity σ, through Joule heating and hydrodynamic expansion, so that j and σ are constantly in flux. Thus, the pit transforms into larger striation and filament structures predicted by the electrothermal instability theory. Both structures are important in applications of current-driven metal: Here, the striation constitutes a density perturbation that can seed the magneto-Rayleigh-Taylor instability, while the filament provides a more rapid path to plasma formation, through 3D j redistribution. Simulations predict distinctive self-emission patterns, thus allowing for experimental observation and comparison.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Comparison of equilibrium climate sensitivity estimates from slab ocean, 150-year, and longer simulations

We compare equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) estimates from pairs of long (= 800-year) control and abruptly quadrupled CO2 simulations with shorter (150, 300 year) coupled atmosphere-ocean simulations and Slab Ocean Models (SOM). Consistent with previous work, ECS estimates from shorter coupled simulations based on annual averages for years 1-150 underestimate those from SOM (-8% ± 13%) and long (-14% ± 8%) simulations. Analysis of only years 21-150 improved agreement with SOM (-2% ± 14%) and long (-8% ± 10%) estimates. Use of pentadal averages for years 51-150 results in improved agreement with long simulations (-4% ± 11%). While ECS estimates from current generation US models based on SOM and coupled annual averages of years 1-150 range from 2.6°C to 5.3°C, estimates based longer simulations of the same models range from 3.2°C to 7.0°C. Such variations between methods argues for caution in comparison and interpretation of ECS estimates across models.

Dunne, John P.↗

Mechanistic and Mitigation-Strategy Insights into NaCl and CaCl 2 Contamination of Proton-Exchange-Membrane Water Electrolysis Using Continuum Modeling

Cationic contaminants are detrimental to proton-exchange-membrane water electrolyzers (PEMWEs). To obtain insight, a 1-D, nonisothermal, multiphase continuum cell model including cationic contamination is developed. Simulations of steady-state cell performance predict decreased performance due to an increase in kinetic overpotential associated with the hydrogen-evolution reaction, which was attributed to decreased protonic-activity within the cathode catalyst layer from proton supplantation with contaminant cations. The accumulation and extent of cation exchange in the cathode catalyst layer depends on the operating current density due to migration. Simulations of cell recovery of potential suggest that a contaminated cell can recover approximately 78% (450 mV) with 24 h of constant current density operation at 2 A cm –2 , with higher current densities accelerating reduced recovery times. Parametric studies show that anode-side acidification at lower current densities inhibit cation contaminant adsorption, and cathode-side acidification at larger current densities facilitate the expulsion of adsorbed cations; for a cathode-side pH of 6 and 5, the cell can recover an additional 10% and 100% performance, respectively. Overall, the model serves as a framework for modeling other aspects of PEMWE systems to address durability and performance aspects, which can assist in improving the viability of the technology.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Forced Reconnection in the Near Magnetotail: Onset and Energy Conversion in PIC and MHD Simulations

Using two-dimensional particle-in-cell (PIC) together with magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) Q1 simulations of magnetotail dynamics, we investigate the evolution toward onset of reconnection and the subsequent energy transfer and conversion. In either case, reconnection onset is preceded by a driven phase, during which magnetic flux is added to the tail at the high-latitude boundaries, followed by a relaxation phase, during which the configuration continues to respond to the driving. The boundary deformation leads to the formation of thin embedded current sheets, which are bifurcated in the near tail, converging to a single sheet farther out in the MHD simulations. The thin current sheets in the PIC simulation are carried by electrons and are associated with a strong perpendicular electrostatic field, which may provide a connection to parallel potentials and auroral arcs and an ionospheric signal even prior to the onset of reconnection. The PIC simulation very well satisfies integral entropy conservation (intrinsic to ideal MHD) during this phase, supporting ideal ballooning stability. Eventually, the current intensification leads to the onset of reconnection, the formation and ejection of a plasmoid, and a collapse of the inner tail. The earthward flow shows the characteristics of a dipolarization front: enhancement of Bz, associated with a thin vertical electron current sheet in the PIC simulation. Both MHD and PIC simulations show a dominance of energy conversion from incoming Poynting flux to outgoing enthalpy flux, resulting in heating of the inner tail. Localized Joule dissipation plays only a minor role.

two-dimensional↗

Assessing Two Approaches for Enhancing the Range of Simulated Scales in the E3SMv1 and the Impact on the Character of Hourly US Precipitation

Abstract Improving the representation of precipitation in Earth system models is essential for understanding and projecting water cycle changes across scales. Progress has been hampered by persistent deficiencies in representing precipitation frequency, intensity, and timing in current models. Here, we analyze simulated US precipitation in the low‐resolution (LR) configuration of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1) and assess the effect of two approaches to enhance the range of explicitly resolved scales: high‐resolution (HR) and multiscale modeling framework (MMF), which incur similar computational expense. Both E3SMv1‐MMF and E3SMv1‐HR capture more intense and less frequent precipitation on hourly and daily timescales relative to E3SMv1‐LR. E3SMv1‐HR improves the intensity over the Eastern and Northwestern US during winter, while E3SMv1‐MMF improves the intensity over the Eastern US and summer diurnal timing over the Central US. These results indicate that both methods may be needed to improve simulations of different storm types, seasons, and regions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Eddy Current Probe Parameters Identification Using a Genetic Algorithm and Simultaneous Perturbation Stochastic Approximation

This study tries to identify the coil parameters using numerical methods. The eddy current testing (ECT) is used for evaluation of a crack with the aid of numerical simulations by utilizing the identification of these parameters. In this study, a comparison of the performance of the GA and SPSA algorithms to identify the parameter values of the coil sensors are presented. So, the optimization probe geometry is introduced in the simulation with Three-dimensional finite element simulations (FLUX finite element code) were conducted to obtain eddy current signals resulting from a crack in a plate made of aluminium. The simulation results are compared with experimental measurements for the defect present in a plate.

42 ENGINEERING↗