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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

MSD CoP Webinar: "Advances in MSD-LIVE to Support the MSD Community of Practice"

Context: This webinar was hosted by the MultiSector Dynamics Community of Practice (MSD CoP; https://multisectordynamics.org). Advances in MSD-LIVE to Support the MSD Community of Practice Presenters: Casey Burleyson and Zoe Guillen (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory) Abstract: The MultiSector Dynamics Living, Intuitive, Value-adding, Environment (MSD-LIVE; msdlive.org) is a cloud-based data management system and advanced computing platform that enables MSD researchers to document and archive their data, run their models and analysis tools, and share their data, software, and workflows within the MSD Community of Practice. Recently, several high-profile datasets have attracted many new users to MSD-LIVE. This webinar has two goals: 1) To refamiliarize the MSD community and new users with the components of the platform (e.g., the data repository, model training notebooks, and data dashboards) and to highlight examples of how these components are advancing MSD science and 2) To demonstrate new features in v3 of the platform, released in late 2025. The main new feature in v3 is the ability to interactively explore data in MSD-LIVE without downloading it. MSD-LIVE users can now click a button in our data repository and launch a blank Jupyter notebook with access to the underlying data on AWS. Users can use the notebook to write analysis, visualization, or subsetting routines that process the data directly on the AWS cloud. We also added a GitHub integration feature that allows users to share analysis or visualization code they develop with the community of MSD-LIVE users. The webinar will wrap up with a look at what's coming next for MSD-LIVE in 2026. Moderator: Patrick M. Reed (MSD CoP Facilitation Team) This webinar was held on: May 12th, 2026 from 1-2 PM EST.

Open Science↗
DOE OSTI2024

Calibration verification for stochastic agent-based disease spread models

Accurate disease spread modeling is crucial for identifying the severity of outbreaks and planning effective mitigation efforts. To be reliable when applied to new outbreaks, model calibration techniques must be robust. However, current methods frequently forgo calibration verification (a stand-alone process evaluating the calibration procedure) and instead use overall model validation (a process comparing calibrated model results to data) to check calibration processes, which may conceal errors in calibration. In this work, we develop a stochastic agent-based disease spread model to act as a testing environment as we test two calibration methods using simulation-based calibration, which is a synthetic data calibration verification method. The first calibration method is a Bayesian inference approach using an empirically-constructed likelihood and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, while the second method is a likelihood-free approach using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). Simulation-based calibration suggests that there are challenges with the empirical likelihood calculation used in the first calibration method in this context. These issues are alleviated in the ABC approach. Despite these challenges, we note that the first calibration method performs well in a synthetic data model validation test similar to those common in disease spread modeling literature. We conclude that stand-alone calibration verification using synthetic data may benefit epidemiological researchers in identifying model calibration challenges that may be difficult to identify with other commonly used model validation techniques.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Enabling Data Exchange and Data Integration with the Common Information Model: An Introduction for Power Systems Engineers and Application Developers

The Common Information Model (CIM) is an open-source information model that is used to model an electrical network and the various equipment used on the network. CIM is widely used for data exchange of bulk transmission power systems and is finding increasing use for distribution systems. Use of a non-proprietary information model (such as CIM) that has been agreed upon and adopted by numerous utilities, vendors, and researchers allows significant reduction in the effort and cost of data integration. Likewise, adoption of open data platforms built around the CIM increases available functionalities for managing and optimizing the smart grid of the future. This report is intended as an introduction to CIM for utility engineers, power systems researchers, and application developers, providing a broad view of the CIM and how particular profiles can be adapted for various use cases. Unlike most other CIM introduction documents and the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) standards (which are mostly targeted to an audience of data scientists, enterprise database managers, and platform developers), this report is intended for users of traditional power systems analysis software and other readers without any prior experience with canonical information models, data profiles, or UML modeling.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

The United States COVID-19 Forecast Hub dataset

Academic researchers, government agencies, industry groups, and individuals have produced forecasts at an unprecedented scale during the COVID-19 pandemic. To leverage these forecasts, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) partnered with an academic research lab at the University of Massachusetts Amherst to create the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub. Launched in April 2020, the Forecast Hub is a dataset with point and probabilistic forecasts of incident cases, incident hospitalizations, incident deaths, and cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 at county, state, and national, levels in the United States. Included forecasts represent a variety of modeling approaches, data sources, and assumptions regarding the spread of COVID-19. The goal of this dataset is to establish a standardized and comparable set of short-term forecasts from modeling teams. These data can be used to develop ensemble models, communicate forecasts to the public, create visualizations, compare models, and inform policies regarding COVID-19 mitigation. These open-source data are available via download from GitHub, through an online API, and through R packages.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian Inference for the Seismic Moment Tensor Using Regional Waveforms and Teleseismic- P Polarities with a Data-Derived Distribution of Velocity Models and Source Locations

The largest source of uncertainty in any source inversion is the velocity model used in the transfer function that relates observed ground motion to the seismic moment tensor. However, standard inverse procedure often does not quantify uncertainty in the seismic moment tensor due to error in the Green’s functions from uncertain event location and Earth structure. Here, we incorporate this uncertainty into an estimation of the seismic moment tensor using a data-derived distribution of velocity models based on complementary geophysical data sets, including thickness constraints, velocity profiles, gravity data, surface-wave group velocities, and regional body-wave travel times. The data-derived distribution of velocity models is then used as a prior distribution of Green’s functions for use in Bayesian inference of an unknown seismic moment tensor using regional and teleseismic-P waveforms. The use of multiple data sets is important for gaining resolution to different components of the moment tensor. The combined likelihood is estimated using data-specific error models and the posterior of the seismic moment tensor is estimated and interpreted in terms of the most probable source type.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

From Machine Learning to Machine Reasoning: A Model-based Approach to Analyze Equipment Reliability Data

In current nuclear power plants (NPPs) a large amount of condition-based data which can be used to assess and monitor component health and performance. Assessing component health from such data can be performed with a large variety of methods. While the analysis of numeric data can be performed with several methods, the extraction of information from textual data remains a challenge. Currently employed natural language processing (NLP) methods do not really provide quantitative information that might be contained in IRs. In addition, the integration of numeric and textual data to identify possible causal relationships between data elements is still an unresolved challenge. This paper presents an approach to extract information from textual (e.g., incident or maintenance reports) and numeric data that relies on model based system engineer (MBSE) models. MBSE are diagrams designed to represent system and component dependencies (from both a form and functional point of view). In our approach, MBSE models emulate system engineer knowledge about component/system architecture. NLP methods are employed to perform syntactic and semantic analyses. Syntactic analysis analyzes the grammatical structure of a sentence while semantic analysis is designed to analyze the logic structure of a sentence. An innovative element of our approach is that semantic analysis uses MBSE models to identify links between textual elements. Similarly, numeric data is directly linked to elements of the MBSE models in order to map which functions are being monitored.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Deep learning model to detect various synchrophasor data anomalies

High-density synchrophasors provide valuable information for power grid situational awareness, operation and control. Unfortunately, due to factors including communication instability and hardware failure, their data quality can be greatly deteriorated by anomalies. Since the anomalies can impact the performance of the synchrophasor applications, it is of paramount significance to propose a model to detect anomalies in synchrophasor. In this study, a convolutional neural network model is established to detect and classify the anomalies in the synchrophasor measurements. Additionally, four types of anomalies observed in actual synchrophasors including erroneous patterns, random spikes, missing points and high-frequency interferences are considered in this study. The proposed model is extensively evaluated via field-collected measurements from the synchrophasor network in Jiangsu grid, China. The superior performance of the proposed model indicates the great potential of using deep learning for the detection of abnormal synchrophasor measurements.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Urban-scale Energy Modeling: Scaling Beyond Tax Assessor Data

In an attempt to attain building-specific characteristics for urban-scale building energy models, county-specific tax assessors’ data is often an initial data source. This data source can contain valuable information such as year built, area, height, HVAC type, and roof/wall descriptions.We will show examples of 2,000 fields from Hamilton County in Tennessee with examples of many fields which are not relevant to urban-scale building energy modeling, are incorrect compared to other data sources, and highlight some lessons learned working with such a data source.There are currently 3,142 counties in the United States, each with their own data format, field definitions, and data access policy. As urban-scale involves city-scale analysis potentially covering multiple counties and matures toward state- or nation-scale analysis, county-by-county approaches are not scalable. While there are efforts to unify these datasets, there is an increasing proliferation of data and algorithms that can cover wider areas and provide more accurate inputs for urban-scale models. This paper summarizes computer vision of imagery, cartographic layers, building type assessment, and model generation used to achieve scalable detection and analysis of buildings.

New, Joshua↗
DOE OSTI2024

A comparison of model validation approaches for echo state networks using climate model replicates

As global temperatures continue to rise, climate mitigation strategies such as stratospheric aerosol injections (SAI) are increasingly discussed, but the downstream effects of these strategies are not well understood. As such, there is interest in developing statistical methods to quantify the evolution of climate variable relationships during the time period surrounding an SAI. Feature importance applied to echo state network (ESN) models has been proposed as a way to understand the effects of SAI using a data-driven model. This approach depends on the ESN fitting the data well. If not, the feature importance may place importance on features that are not representative of the underlying relationships. Typically, time series prediction models such as ESNs are assessed using out-of-sample performance metrics that divide the times series into separate training and testing sets. However, this model assessment approach is geared towards forecasting applications and not scenarios such as the motivating SAI example where the objective is using a data driven model to capture variable relationships. Here, in this paper, we demonstrate a novel use of climate model replicates to investigate the applicability of the commonly used repeated hold-out model assessment approach for the SAI application. Simulations of an SAI are generated using a simplified climate model, and different initialization conditions are used to provide independent training and testing sets containing the same SAI event. The climate model replicates enable out-of-sample measures of model performance, which are compared to the single time series hold-out validation approach. For our case study, it is found that the repeated hold-out sample performance is comparable, but conservative, to the replicate out-of-sample performance when the training set contains enough time after the aerosol injection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Adaptive Fault Detection Based on Neural Networks and Multiple Sampling Points for Distribution Networks and Microgrids

Smart networks such as microgrid (MG) and active distribution networks (ADN) have been recently playing an important role in power system operation. The design and implementation of appropriate protection systems for such networks must be addressed, which imposes new technical challenges. This paper presents the implementation and validation aspects of an adaptive fault detection strategy based on neural networks (NNs) and multiple sampling points for ADN and MG. The solution is implemented on an edge device. Artificial NNs are used to derive a data-driven model that uses only local measurements to detect fault states of the network without the need for communication infrastructure. Multiple sampling points are used to derive a data-driven model, which allows the generalization considering the implementation in physical systems. The adaptive fault detector model is implemented on a Jetson Nano system, which is a single-board computer (SBC) with a small Graphic Processing Unit (GPU) intended to run machine learning loads at the edge. The proposed method is tested in a physical, real-life, low-voltage network located at Universidad del Norte, Colombia. This testing network is based on the IEEE-13 Node Test Feeder scaled down to 220 V. The validation in a simulation environment shows the accuracy and dependability above 99.6%, while the real-time tests show the accuracy and dependability of 95.5% and 100%, respectively. Without hard-to-derive parameters, the easy-to-implement embedded model highlights the potential for real-life applications.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data-Driven Reduced-Order Modeling of Convective Heat Transfer in Porous Media

This work presents a data-driven Reduced-Order Model (ROM) for parametric convective heat transfer problems in porous media. The intrusive Proper Orthogonal Decomposition aided Reduced-Basis (POD-RB) technique is employed to reduce the porous medium formulation of the incompressible Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) equations coupled with heat transfer. Instead of resolving the exact flow configuration with high fidelity, the porous medium formulation solves a homogenized flow in which the fluid-structure interactions are captured via volumetric flow resistances with nonlinear, semi-empirical friction correlations. A supremizer approach is implemented for the stabilization of the reduced fluid dynamics equations. The reduced nonlinear flow resistances are treated using the Discrete Empirical Interpolation Method (DEIM), while the turbulent eddy viscosity and diffusivity are approximated by adopting a Radial Basis Function (RBF) interpolation-based approach. The proposed method is tested using a 2D numerical model of the Molten Salt Fast Reactor (MSFR), which involves the simulation of both clean and porous medium regions in the same domain. For the steady-state example, five model parameters are considered to be uncertain: the magnitude of the pumping force, the external coolant temperature, the heat transfer coefficient, the thermal expansion coefficient, and the Prandtl number. For transient scenarios, on the other hand, the coastdown-time of the pump is the only uncertain parameter. The results indicate that the POD-RB-ROMs are suitable for the reduction of similar problems. The relative L2 errors are below 3.34% for every field of interest for all cases analyzed, while the speedup factors vary between 54 (transient) and 40,000 (steady-state).

German, Péter (ORCID:0000000307285283)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Neural Posterior Estimation for Scalable and Accurate Inverse Parameter Inference in Li-Ion Batteries

Diagnosing the internal state of Li-ion batteries is critical for battery research, operation of real-world systems, and prognostic evaluation of remaining lifetime. By using physics-based models to perform probabilistic parameter estimation via Bayesian calibration, diagnostics can account for the uncertainty due to model fitness, data noise, and the observability of any given parameter. However, Bayesian calibration in Li-ion batteries using electrochemical data is computationally intensive even when using a fast surrogate in place of physics-based models, requiring many thousands of model evaluations. A fully amortized alternative is neural posterior estimation (NPE). NPE shifts the computational burden from the parameter estimation step to data generation and model training, reducing the parameter estimation time from minutes to milliseconds, enabling real-time applications. The present work shows that NPE can infer parameters equally or more accurately than Bayesian calibration, even if it leads to higher voltage reconstruction errors. We also demonstrate that the higher computational costs for data generation are tractable even in high-dimensional cases (ranging from 6 to 27 estimated parameters). The NPE method also offers several interpretability advantages over Bayesian calibration, such as local parameter sensitivity to specific regions of the voltage curve. The NPE method is demonstrated using an experimental fast charge dataset, with parameter estimates validated against measurements of loss of lithium inventory and loss of active material. The implementation is made available in a companion repository (https://github.com/NatLabRockies/BatFIT).

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data for KETCHUP: Parameterizing of Large-Scale Kinetic Models Using Multiple Datasets with Different Reference States

Repository for Kinetic Estimation Tool Capturing Heterogeneous Datasets Using Pyomo (KETCHUP), a flexible parameter estimation tool that leverages a primal-dual interior-point algorithm to solve a nonlinear programming (NLP) problem that identifies a set of parameters capable of recapitulating the steady-state fluxes and concentrations in wild-type and perturbed metabolic networks. KETCHUP can use K-FIT [2] input files. Example K-FIT input files are located in the K-FIT repository at https://github.com/maranasgroup/K-FIT.

Metabolomics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Anomaly Detection In DUNE Using AI/ML

We designed and built an AI/ML model to detect anomalies in the DUNE far detector data. The model has been trained on simulated radiological background (rbkg) data, which is the major background for supernova burst neutrinos. The trained model was evaluated on both new samples of radiological backgrounds and supernova burst neutrino events in the elastic scattering and charged current interaction channels. We found that the trained model can successfully identify supernova burst neutrino events as anomalies while identifying radiological backgrounds as nominal events.

Novello, Eric [Unlisted, US]↗
DOE OSTI2024

Timeseries Unlabeled and Labeled Photos, Modeled Stream Elevation, and (Meta)Data of Variably Inundated Streams Across The Yakima River Basin, Washington, United States (v2)

This dataset is associated with the “River Monitoring Photos” (RMP) study and subsequent manuscript (Bao et al. 2025. Monitoring river flow status using low-cost wildlife camera and image segmentation artificial intelligence doi: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2025.106715). Game camera timeseries photos were collected to evaluate stream variable inundation via changes in width. A subset of photos was labeled for training the YOLOv8 and Mask2Former models and used to segment water surface fractions from all the game camera photos.This data package was originally published in March 2024. It was updated in October 2025 (v2) to add additional photos and files associated with the manuscript (i.e., processed data, labeled photos, and trained models). For details on how to navigate data packages generated by this project, see https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA/About.In addition to a readme, this data package also includes two file-level metadata (FLMD) files that describes each file and two data dictionaries (DD) that describe all column/row headers and variable definitions. This dataset is comprised of (1) file-level metadata; (2) data dictionary; (3) readme; (4) field metadata; and (5) folders containing game camera photos and manuscript-associated files. Each Yakima River Basin site has a folder that contains subfolders for each month photos were collected. There is also a folder for files associated with the manuscript which has subfolders for labeled data, trained models, Yakima River Basin site water surface fractions, and USGS site water surface fractions. All files are .csv, .json, .txt, .yaml, .pth, .pt, or .pdf. We thank the Confederated Tribes and Bands of the Yakama Nation Tribal Council and Yakama Nation Fisheries for working with us to facilitate sample collection and optimization of data usage according to their values and worldview.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Mass action model of solution activity via speciation by solvation and ion pairing equilibria

Abstract Solutes and their concentrations influence many natural and anthropogenic solution processes. Electrolyte and solution models are used to quantify and predict such behavior. Here we present a mechanistic solution model based on mass action equilibria. Solvation and ion pairing are used to model speciated solute and solvent concentrations such that they correlate to a solution’s vapor pressure (solvent activity) according to Raoult’s law from dilute conditions to saturation. This model introduces a hydration equilibrium constant ( K ha ) that is used with either an ion dissociation constant ( K id ) or a hydration modifier ( m ) with an experimentally determined ion dissociation constant, as adjustable parameters to fit vapor–liquid equilibrium data. The modeled solvation equilibria are accompanied by molecular dynamics (MD) studies that support a decline in the observed degree of solvation with increased concentration. MD calculations indicate this finding is a combination of a solvent that solvates multiple solutes, and changes in a solute’s solvation sphere, with the dominant factor changing with concentration. This speciation-based solution model is lateral to established electrostatics-based electrolyte theories. With its basis in mass action, the model can directly relate experimental data to the modeled solute and solvent speciated concentrations and structures.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

PIPES (Pipeline for Integrated Projects in Energy Systems) [SWR-24-89]

The Pipeline for Integrated Projects in Energy Systems (PIPES) is a comprehensive project, data, and workflow management tool designed for integrated modeling teams. PIPES facilitates the management of data requirements, tasks, and progress tracking, serving as a higher-level integration layer that works across various data and modeling software. This tool integrates models, data, and tools to perform large-scale, integrated analysis work at scale. PIPES is designed to streamline integrated modeling projects, enhance collaboration, and ensure the quality and efficiency of data management and workflow processes. https://github.com/nrel-pipes/pipes-api https://github.com/nrel-pipes/pipes-web https://github.com/nrel-pipes/nrel-pipes

Gu, Jianli↗
DOE OSTI2025

Optimal Control of an Oscillating Surge Wave Energy Converter

During this project, we experimentally investigated the hydrodynamics and performance of a laboratory-scale oscillating surge wave energy converter (OSWEC).We looked at how flap buoyancy and driveline losses (primarily in the form of stiction) affected the dynamics and performance of the device. In addition, we assessed the influence of flap profile (rounded vs. square edges) on OSWEC hydrodynamics. Through this, we were able to develop a deeper understanding of OSWEC performance and provide guidance on strategies to counteract artifacts that may be present in laboratory models, but are absent in field-scale devices. To do this, we tested a laboratory-scale OSWEC in the Sea Wave Environmental Lab (SWEL) wave tank at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). We ran several types of experiments to investigate the hydrodynamics and performance of the device. Overall, we achieved the overall goal of experimentally investigating the hydrodynamics and performance of this device. We discovered important and unexpected trends in performance, and collected time-resolved data to help us further investigate the underlying hydrodynamics responsible for these trends. In addition, we are currently using the time-resolved data from these experiments to build data-driven models of the dynamics, which can in turn be used to inform data-driven model predictive control of this device and address this objective in the future.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗