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Management of Operations under Visual Flight Rules in UTM for Disaster Response Missions

The disaster response domain has experienced an increased focus in recent years due to the rise in number and scale of events, lessons learned from past experience, and emerging technologies that make possible a more coordinated and effective response. As part of this focus, JAXA and NASA have been collaborating on the integration of manned and unmanned aircraft in support of disaster response operations through integrated testing of their respective mission planning and optimization system (Disaster Relief Aircraft Information Sharing Network, or D-NET) and an automated UAS traffic management system (e.g., UTM). In 2018, JAXA and NASA jointly participated in a large-scale disaster drill in Japan where the integration of systems was successfully demonstrated through real-time data exchanges, visualization, and decision making as part of the coordinated airspace management of a manned helicopter in VFR conditions and unmanned small UAS operating in common areas. This work details a flight test consisting of two flights that were conducted December 2019 near the Chofu Aerodrome in Tokyo, which focused on the evaluation of pilots operating under Visual Flight Rules (VFR) communicating through D-NET and sharing intent and position information within UTM. This work contributes to defining the necessary requirements for digital coordination between manned and unmanned operations. UTM requires the use of operation volumes, which are spatial and temporal volumes that encompass UAS flight trajectories and account for technical performance errors and deviations due to disturbances (e.g., wind). A series of flights, representing different missions, used landmark-based operation volumes and conformance of the aircraft to those operation volumes were tracked within UTM. Experienced disaster response helicopter pilots provided insight on the development of the operation plans and their usability during disaster response operations. Results from the flight test supported the suggested benefits of using landmarks for planning and positional awareness and highlighted the need for future research in advanced visualization capabilities to support operations that consider both system constraints and flight deck/airspace management interaction.

disaster response↗

DOE OSTI2026

3D Deep Learning Joint Inversion of Active Seismic Full Waveform and Passive Seismic Traveltime Data for Reservoir Imaging and Uncertainty Quantification

Here, we present deep learning (DL) networks for three-dimensional (3D) joint inversion of active seismic full waveform and passive seismic traveltime data to image reservoirs and their properties and quantify imaging uncertainties. Active seismic full-waveform data can provide high-resolution monitoring images but are collected only intermittently because of their high acquisition cost. In contrast, passive seismic data can be gathered at relatively low cost between regular active surveys, although their imaging quality can be compromised by factors such as low signal-to-noise ratios and limited ray coverage of the target. Although these datasets are routinely acquired together at CO 2 storage sites, their combined inversion within a 3D DL framework has not been previously demonstrated. To our knowledge, this is the first study to address this gap, combining the strength of both data types. For efficient data storage and DL training with large 3D seismic datasets, we use a 3D data matrix in which a random number of passive seismic traveltime data are stored as parabolic envelopes using one-hot encoding and a 3D full-waveform data matrix in which multiple shot gathers are summed. Two network architectures are evaluated: a single-encoder U-Net for single-data type inversion and a dual-encoder U-Net for joint inversion of active and passive seismic data. We also evaluate the single-encoder U-Net for joint inversion by concatenating full-waveform data and traveltime data. We propose a systematic approach for selecting an optimal dropout rate that balances regularization during training and Monte Carlo dropout-based uncertainty quantification during prediction by examining the correlation coefficient between standard deviation and prediction error, along with the training misfit, across a range of dropout rates. 3D DL inversion experiments include five different network configurations, with evaluations under ideal, noisy and dropout-enabled conditions. Both model and data uncertainties are assessed, as well as their combined effects. Across all conditions, the networks consistently predict accurate CO 2 saturation models with low prediction errors, such as a structural similarity index of 0.993 and CO 2 difference of 1.1%. Uncertainty estimates show strong spatial correlation with prediction errors, confirming the effectiveness of the proposed dropout selection approach. The results demonstrate that our DL approach, utilizing compact data representations and appropriate uncertainty quantification, yields accurate subsurface images under various inversion conditions and provides valuable insights into the reliability of predictions.

Um, Evan Schankee [Lawrence Berkeley National Labo↗

NASA NTRS1989

Estimations of ABL fluxes and other turbulence parameters from Doppler lidar data

Techniques for extraction boundary layer parameters from measurements of a short-pulse CO2 Doppler lidar are described. The measurements are those collected during the First International Satellites Land Surface Climatology Project (ISLSCP) Field Experiment (FIFE). By continuously operating the lidar for about an hour, stable statistics of the radial velocities can be extracted. Assuming that the turbulence is horizontally homogeneous, the mean wind, its standard deviations, and the momentum fluxes were estimated. Spectral analysis of the radial velocities is also performed from which, by examining the amplitude of the power spectrum at the inertial range, the kinetic energy dissipation was deduced. Finally, using the statistical form of the Navier-Stokes equations, the surface heat flux is derived as the residual balance between the vertical gradient of the third moment of the vertical velocity and the kinetic energy dissipation. Combining many measurements would normally reduce the error provided that, it is unbiased and uncorrelated. The nature of some of the algorithms however, is such that, biased and correlated errors may be generated even though the raw measurements are not. Data processing procedures were developed that eliminate bias and minimize error correlation. Once bias and error correlations are accounted for, the large sample size is shown to reduce the errors substantially. The principal features of the derived turbulence statistics for two case studied are presented.

Gal-Chen, Tzvi↗

NASA NTRS1990

Enhanced frequency spectra of winds at the mesoscale based on radar profiler observations

Frequency spectra of horizontal winds in the troposphere and stratosphere, over a range of periods and frequencies, have been studied by means of two radar profilers, located at Plattenville, Colorado, and Poker Flat, Alaska, to determine if the spectra deviations from a consistent power law behavior can be verified in a statistical sense. At Plattenville, the spectrum of both zonal and meridional winds in the troposphere is found to obey a low-frequency regime at periods longer than a few hours and a high-frequency regime at periods less than 1/2 hour. The energy levels in the high-frequency regime are enhanced over those obtained by extrapolation of the low-frequency regime by a factor of 4. At Poker Flat, a similar pattern is found in the stratosphere, and the magnitude of the enhancement factor is 1.7. It is suggested that the enhanced amplitudes reflect the effects of upward-propagating gravity waves launched by the flow over a rough terrain, and that they influence the dynamics of the large-scale circulation to a great extent.

Nastrom, G. D.↗

DOE OSTI2024

In situ measurement of three-dimensional intergranular stress localizations and grain yielding under elastoplastic axial-torsional loading

The three-dimensional grain-averaged response of solid bar samples under non-proportional (NP) elastoplastic axial-torsional loading was investigated using in situ high energy diffraction microscopy (HEDM) and companion crystal plasticity finite element (CPFE) modeling. Important stress metrics including applied shear (σ θZ ) and axial (σ ZZ ) stress tensor components, stress and stress deviator tensor invariants (I 1 , J 2 , and J 3 ), von Mises equivalent stress (σ$^{grain}_{VM}$), maximum resolved shear stress (mRSS), stress triaxiality (η), and lode angle parameter ($\barθ$) values were tracked for ~300 grains under two different loading conditions: (1) Torsion-dominated loading (low NP) and (2) Tension-torsion loading (high NP) in equiatomic NiCoCr, a representative multicomponent face-centered cubic (FCC) superalloy. Overall, significant stress localizations existed within both samples as evidenced by the radial dependence of grain-resolved σ θZ , σ$^{grain}_{VM}$, and J 2 ; by comparison, I 1 , J 3 , η, and $\barθ$ metrics did not show discernible trends within the volume. These stress localizations reveal a complex interplay between axial and shear stress components (e.g., stress coupling) resulting in grain yielding near the sample surface largely driven by shear stress, whereas internal grain yielding was largely accommodated by axial stress. Grain-resolved stress localization trends were described well by the CPFE model, although some discrepancies in magnitude occurred, particularly for volumetric stress metrics (I 1 and η) due to initial type II residual stress distributions. The superposition of initial residual stress states onto CPFE grain-resolved data significantly improved model accuracy for η. This suggests that residual stresses more strongly influence the simulation of volumetric rather than deviatoric (yield) stress metrics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Exploring modified gravity: constraints on the μ and Σ parametrization with WMAP , ACT, and SPT

ABSTRACT The cosmic acceleration problem remains one of the most significant challenges in cosmology. One of the proposed solutions to this problem is the modification of gravity on large scales. In this paper, we explore the well-known μ–Σ parametrization scenarios and confront them with observational data, including the cosmic microwave background (CMB) radiation from the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP), Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT), and South Pole Telescope (SPT), as well as large-scale structure data from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS; baryon acoustic oscillation + redshift-space distortion) and Pantheon supernova (SN) catalogue. We employ a Bayesian framework to constrain the model parameters and discuss the implications of our results on the viability of modified gravity theories. Our analysis reveals the strengths and limitations of the μ–Σ parametrization and provides valuable insights into the nature of gravity on cosmological scales. From the joint analysis of the ACT + WMAP + SDSS + SN, we find μ0 − 1 = 0.02 ± 0.19 and Σ0 − 1 = 0.021 ± 0.068 at 68 per cent confidence level (CL). In light of the SPT + WMAP + SDSS + SN, we find μ0 − 1 = 0.07 ± 0.18 and $\Sigma _0 -1 = -0.009^{+0.078}_{-0.11}$ at 68 per cent CL. In all the analyses carried out, we do not find any deviations from the theory of general relativity. Our results represent an observational update on the well-known μ–Σ parametrization in view of current CMB data, independent of and competitive with the constraints obtained with the Planck data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1996

The Angular Power Spectrum of BATSE 3B Gamma-Ray Bursts

We compute the angular power spectrum C(sub l) from the BATSE 3B catalog of 1122 gamma-ray bursts and find no evidence for clustering on any scale. These constraints bridge the entire range from small scales (which probe source clustering and burst repetition) to the largest scales (which constrain possible anisotropics from the Galactic halo or from nearby cosmological large-scale structures). We develop an analysis technique that takes the angular position errors into account. For specific clustering or repetition models, strong upper limits can be obtained down to scales l approx. equal to 30, corresponding to a couple of degrees on the sky. The minimum-variance burst weighting that we employ is visualized graphically as an all-sky map in which each burst is smeared out by an amount corresponding to its position uncertainty. We also present separate bandpass-filtered sky maps for the quadrupole term and for the multipole ranges l = 3-10 and l = 11-30, so that the fluctuations on different angular scales can be inspected separately for visual features such as localized 'hot spots' or structures aligned with the Galactic plane. These filtered maps reveal no apparent deviations from isotropy.

Tegmark, Max↗

NASA NTRS2004

Toward a Global Map of Raindrop Size Distributions: Rain-Type Classification and Its Implications for Validating Global Rainfall Products - Part 1

Variability in the global distribution of precipitation is recognized as a key element in assessing the impact of climate change for life on earth. The response of precipitation to climate forcings is, however, poorly understood because of discrepancies in the magnitude and sign of climatic trends in satellite-based rainfall estimates. Quantifying and ultimately removing these biases is critical for studying the response of the hydrologic cycle to climate change. In addition, estimates of random errors owing to variability in algorithm assumptions on local spatial and temporal scales are critical for establishing how strongly their products should be weighted in data assimilation or model validation applications and for assigning a level of confidence to climate trends diagnosed from the data. This paper explores the potential for refining assumed drop size distributions (DSDs) in global radar rainfall algorithms by establishing a link between satellite observables and information gleaned from regional validation experiments where polarimetric radar, Doppler radar, and disdrometer measurements can be used to infer raindrop size distributions. By virtue of the limited information available in the satellite retrieval framework, the current method deviates from approaches adopted in the ground-based radar community that attempt to relate microphysical processes and resultant DSDs to local meteorological conditions. Instead, the technique exploits the fact that different microphysical pathways for rainfall production are likely to lead to differences in both the DSD of the resulting raindrops and the three-dimensional structure of associated radar reflectivity profiles. Objective rain-type classification based on the complete three-dimensional structure of observed reflectivity profiles is found to partially mitigate random and systematic errors in DSDs implied by differential reflectivity measurements. In particular, it is shown that vertical and horizontal reflectivity structure obtained from spaceborne radar can be used to reproduce significant differences in Z(sub dr) between the easterly and westerly climate regimes observed in the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Large-scale Biosphere-Atmosphere (TRMM-LBA) field experiment as well as the even larger differences between Amazonian rainfall and that observed in eastern Colorado. As such, the technique offers a potential methodology for placing locally observed DSD information into a global framework.

L'Ecuyer, Tristan S.↗

DOE OSTI2021

International collaboration framework for the calculation of performance loss rates: Data quality, benchmarks, and trends (towards a uniform methodology)

Abstract The IEA PVPS Task 13 group, experts who focus on photovoltaic performance, operation, and reliability from several leading R&D centers, universities, and industrial companies, is developing a framework for the calculation of performance loss rates of a large number of commercial and research photovoltaic (PV) power plants and their related weather data coming across various climatic zones. The general steps to calculate the performance loss rate are (i) input data cleaning and grading; (ii) data filtering; (iii) performance metric selection, corrections, and aggregation; and finally, (iv) application of a statistical modeling method to determine the performance loss rate value. In this study, several high‐quality power and irradiance datasets have been shared, and the participants of the study were asked to calculate the performance loss rate of each individual system using their preferred methodologies. The data are used for benchmarking activities and to define capabilities and uncertainties of all the various methods. The combination of data filtering, metrics (performance ratio or power based), and statistical modeling methods are benchmarked in terms of (i) their deviation from the average value and (ii) their uncertainty, standard error, and confidence intervals. It was observed that careful data filtering is an essential foundation for reliable performance loss rate calculations. Furthermore, the selection of the calculation steps filter/metric/statistical method is highly dependent on one another, and the steps should not be assessed individually.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Reconstruction and identification of boosted di-τ systems in a search for Higgs boson pairs using 13 TeV proton-proton collision data in ATLAS

In this paper, a new technique for reconstructing and identifying hadronically decaying τ+τ- pairs with a large Lorentz boost, referred to as the di-τ tagger, is developed and used for the first time in the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider. A benchmark di-τ tagging selection is employed in the search for resonant Higgs boson pair production, where one Higgs boson decays into a boosted $b\overline b$ pair and the other into a boosted τ+τ- pair, with two hadronically decaying τ-leptons in the final state. Using 139 fb -1 of proton-proton collision data recorded at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV, the efficiency of the di-τ tagger is determined and the background with quark- or gluon-initiated jets misidentified as di-τ objects is estimated. The search for a heavy, narrow, scalar resonance produced via gluon-gluon fusion and decaying into two Higgs bosons is carried out in the mass range 1–3 TeV using the same dataset. No deviations from the Standard Model predictions are observed, and 95% confidence-level exclusion limits are set on this model.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Theoretical kinetics predictions for NH 2 + HO 2

Recent modeling studies of NH 3 oxidation, which are motivated by the prospective role of ammonia as a zero-carbon fuel, have indicated significant discrepancies between existing literature mechanisms. In this study high level theoretical kinetics predictions have been obtained for the reaction of NH 2 with HO 2 , which has previously been highlighted as an important reaction with high sensitivity and high uncertainty. The potential energy surface is explored with coupled cluster calculations including large basis sets and high-level corrections to yield high accuracy (~0.2 kcal/mol) estimates of the stationary point energies. Variational transition state theory is used to predict the microcanonical rate constants, which are then incorporated in master equation treatments of the temperature and pressure dependent kinetics. For the radical-radical channels, the microcanonical rates are obtained from variable reaction coordinate transition state theory implementing directly evaluated multireference electronic energies. The analysis yields predictions for the total rate constant as well as the branching to the NH 3 + O 2 , H 2 NO + OH, and HNO + H 2 O channels. Rate constants are also reported for the H 2 NO + OH reaction as they arise naturally from the analysis. The rate constant and branching fraction determined in this work for the NH 2 + HO 2 reaction deviate significantly from values used in most previous modeling studies. The fact that the main product channel is chain terminating, rather than propagating, has strong implications for modeling NH 3 ignition and oxidation, in particular at intermediate temperatures and elevated pressure.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Comparing the influence of cation order and composition in simulated Zn(Sn, Ge)N 2 on structure, elastic moduli, and polarization for solid state lighting

Alloying and site ordering play complementary roles in dictating a material’s properties. However, deconvolving the impacts of these separate phenomena can be challenging. In this work, we simulate structures of Zn(Sn,Ge)N 2 with varied Sn content and site ordering to determine the impacts of order and composition on structural and electronic properties. We assess the formation enthalpy, lattice parameters, elastic constants, spontaneous polarization, and piezoelectric coefficients. In mostly disordered structures (order parameters ranging from 0.2 to 0.4), the formation enthalpy exhibits local extrema as a function of the order parameter, deviating from the more linear trends seen in both fully disordered and fully ordered systems. This anomalous deviation from the otherwise linear trend in formation enthalpy with order manifests in each of the other properties calculated. This range of order parameters of interest may be caused by a transition in the ordering of the quaternary material similar to phase changes seen in ternary compounds but stretched over a region inclduing 20% of the order parameter range. Most parameters calculated are more sensitive to order than to composition in the limited composition range tested; however, the lattice parameter c, piezoelectric coefficient e 33 , and elastic moduli C 12 , C 13 , and C 23 are more sensitive to composition. Of the properties compared, the piezoelectric coefficients are influenced most significantly by changes in both the composition and order parameter. Lattice parameters undergo the smallest changes with order and composition, but these small differences appear to impart large trends in the other properties. Better understanding the effects of disorder and group IV alloying in Zn(Sn,Ge)N 2 allows for more accurate modeling of characteristics of this material system for solid state lighting and other applications.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2024

Functional Data Analysis in Wearable Body Sensor Networks

Improving response time of indirect room-size calorimeters is still an outstanding problem in metabolic research. Accurate estimates of instantaneous rates of gaseous exchange require numerical differentiation of measured gaseousgas concentrations. We propose a new method to estimate the instantaneous gaseousgas exchange rates in indirect calorimetry. In contrast to the previously developed techniques, the method addresses the problem of differentiation of gaseous concentrations as an ill-posed problem. By applying the method of regularization, the problem of differentiation is converted into a well-posed problem resulting in smooth and consistent gaseous exchange rates. The validity of the method is tested on a large dataset of calorimeter experiments which included 313 human experiments along with 231 alcohol combustion experiments. It is demonstrated that the method is able to reliably differentiate between the “unphysiological” process of alcohol combustion and physiological variations produced by human metabolism. The method also allowed unraveling the previously unreported relative kinetics of O2 consumption and Respiratory Quotient (RQ) in humans. It was found that the kinetics of oxidative fuel selection lags behind the energy expenditure in humans exhibiting some sort of oxidative inertia. The time lag varies from 2-3 min up to 30 min, depending on particular individual. No such lag was found in alcohol combustion experiments. In addition to the relative kinetics of substrate oxidation, two statistical indexes reflecting variability of minute-by-minute RQ were estimated. The indexes were the RQ’s standard deviation and RQ’s first-order derivative. Both indexes showed statistically significant difference between human experiments and alcohol combustion experiments. We conclude that the proposed method can consistently extract physiologically-relevant information from noisy calorimetry data and the aforesaid information can provide additional insights into the mechanism of metabolic fuel selection in humans.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Functional Data Analysis in Wearable Body Sensor Networks

60 - APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Elucidating the Onset of Plasticity in Sliding Contacts Using Differential Computational Orientation Tomography

Abstract Depending on the mechanical and thermal energy introduced to a dry sliding interface, the near-surface regions of the mated bodies may undergo plastic deformation. In this work, we use large-scale molecular dynamics simulations to generate “differential computational orientation tomographs” (dCOT) and thus highlight changes to the microstructure near tribological FCC alloy surfaces, allowing us to detect subtle differences in lattice orientation and small distances in grain boundary migration. The analysis approach compares computationally generated orientation tomographs with their undeformed counterparts via a simple image analysis filter. We use our visualization method to discuss the acting microstructural mechanisms in a load- and time-resolved fashion, focusing on sliding conditions that lead to twinning, partial lattice rotation, and grain boundary-dominated processes. Extracting and laterally averaging the color saturation value of the generated tomographs allows us to produce quantitative time- and depth-resolved maps that give a good overview of the progress and severity of near-surface deformation. Corresponding maps of the lateral standard deviation in the color saturation show evidence of homogenization processes occurring in the tribologically loaded microstructure, frequently leading to the formation of a well-defined separation between deformed and undeformed regions. When integrated into a computational materials engineering framework, our approach could help optimize material design for tribological and other deformation problems. Graphic Abstract .

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

The changing nature of hydroclimatic risks across South Africa

We present results from large ensembles of projected twenty-first century changes in seasonal precipitation and near-surface air temperature for the nation of South Africa. These ensembles are a result of combining Monte Carlo projections from a human-Earth system model of intermediate complexity with pattern-scaled responses from climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). These future ensemble scenarios consider a range of global actions to abate emissions through the twenty-first century. We evaluate distributions of surface-air temperature and precipitation change over three sub-national regions: western, central, and eastern South Africa. In all regions, we find that without any emissions or climate targets in place, there is a greater than 50% likelihood that mid-century temperatures will increase threefold over the current climate’s two-standard deviation range of variability. However, scenarios that consider more aggressive climate targets all but eliminate the risk of these salient temperature increases. A preponderance of risk toward decreased precipitation (3 to 4 times higher than increased) exists for western and central South Africa. Strong climate targets abate evolving regional hydroclimatic risks. Under a target to limit global climate warming to 1.5 °C by 2100, the risk of precipitation changes within South Africa toward the end of this century (2065–2074) is commensurate to the risk during the 2030s without any global climate target. Thus, these regional hydroclimate risks over South Africa could be delayed by 30 years and, in doing so, provide invaluable lead-time for national efforts to prepare, fortify, and/or adapt.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Seasonal Disorder in Urban Traffic Patterns: A Low Rank Analysis

This article proposes several advances to sparse nonnegative matrix factorization (SNMF) as a way to identify large-scale patterns in urban traffic data. The input to our model is traffic counts organized by time and location. Nonnegative matrix factorization additively decomposes this information, organized as a matrix, into a linear sum of temporal signatures. Penalty terms encourage this factorization to concentrate on only a few temporal signatures, with weights which are not too large. Our interest here is to quantify and compare the regularity of traffic behavior, particularly across different broad temporal windows. In addition to the rank and error, we adapt a measure introduced by Hoyer to quantify sparsity in the representation. Combining these, we construct several curves which quantify error as a function of rank (the number of possible signatures) and sparsity; as rank goes up and sparsity goes down, the approximation can be better and the error should decreases. Plots of several such curves corresponding to different time windows leads to a way to compare disorder/order at different time scalewindows. In this paper, we apply our algorithms and procedures to study a taxi traffic dataset from New York City. In this dataset, we find weekly periodicity in the signatures, which allows us an extra framework for identifying outliers as significant deviations from weekly medians. We then apply our seasonal disorder analysis to the New York City traffic data and seasonal (spring, summer, winter, fall) time windows. We do find seasonal differences in traffic order.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2014

Global Warming and 21st Century Drying

Global warming is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of droughts in the twenty-first century, but the relative contributions from changes in moisture supply (precipitation) versus evaporative demand (potential evapotranspiration; PET) have not been comprehensively assessed. Using output from a suite of general circulation model (GCM) simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, projected twentyfirst century drying and wetting trends are investigated using two offline indices of surface moisture balance: the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). PDSI and SPEI projections using precipitation and Penman- Monteith based PET changes from the GCMs generally agree, showing robust cross-model drying in western North America, Central America, the Mediterranean, southern Africa, and the Amazon and robust wetting occurring in the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes and east Africa (PDSI only). The SPEI is more sensitive to PET changes than the PDSI, especially in arid regions such as the Sahara and Middle East. Regional drying and wetting patterns largely mirror the spatially heterogeneous response of precipitation in the models, although drying in the PDSI and SPEI calculations extends beyond the regions of reduced precipitation. This expansion of drying areas is attributed to globally widespread increases in PET, caused by increases in surface net radiation and the vapor pressure deficit. Increased PET not only intensifies drying in areas where precipitation is already reduced, it also drives areas into drought that would otherwise experience little drying or even wetting from precipitation trends alone. This PET amplification effect is largest in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, and is especially pronounced in western North America, Europe, and southeast China. Compared to PDSI projections using precipitation changes only, the projections incorporating both precipitation and PET changes increase the percentage of global land area projected to experience at least moderate drying (PDSI standard deviation of < or = -1) by the end of the twenty-first century from 12 to 30 %. PET induced moderate drying is even more severe in the SPEI projections (SPEI standard deviation of > or = -1; 11 to 44 %), although this is likely less meaningful because much of the PET induced drying in the SPEI occurs in the aforementioned arid regions. Integrated accounting of both the supply and demand sides of the surface moisture balance is therefore critical for characterizing the full range of projected drought risks tied to increasing greenhouse gases and associated warming of the climate system.

moisture↗