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At least 1,279 records · Page 71

Reply to Bracher: Scoring probabilistic forecasts to maximize public health interpretability

Evaluating probabilistic forecasts in the context of a real-time public health surveillance system is a complicated business. We agree with Bracher’s (1) observations that the scores established by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and used to evaluate our forecasts of seasonal influenza in the United States are not “proper” by definition (2). We thank him for raising this important issue.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Interpretations of ground-state symmetry breaking and strong correlation in wavefunction and density functional theories

Significance The ground state of a quantum mechanical system is the lowest-energy eigenstate of the Hamiltonian. In isolation, it persists unchanged forever, with symmetries dictated by those of the Hamiltonian. But near-eigenstates of broken symmetry can persist for long times, even on the scale of human measurement. The appearance of broken symmetries of the electron density or spin density in a density functional calculation can reveal strong correlations among the electrons that are present in a symmetry-unbroken wavefunction. Symmetry breaking can arise when a wave-like fluctuation drops to zero frequency. The presented examples are the stretched hydrogen molecule, antiferromagnetism in solids, and the static charge-density wave in a low-density jellium, which is shown quantitatively to be a zero-frequency plasma wave.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Harnessing interpretable and unsupervised machine learning to address big data from modern X-ray diffraction

The information content of crystalline materials becomes astronomical when collective electronic behavior and their fluctuations are taken into account. In the past decade, improvements in source brightness and detector technology at modern X-ray facilities have allowed a dramatically increased fraction of this information to be captured. Now, the primary challenge is to understand and discover scientific principles from big datasets when a comprehensive analysis is beyond human reach. We report the development of an unsupervised machine learning approach, X-ray diffraction (XRD) temperature clustering (X-TEC), that can automatically extract charge density wave order parameters and detect intraunit cell ordering and its fluctuations from a series of high-volume X-ray diffraction measurements taken at multiple temperatures. We benchmark X-TEC with diffraction data on a quasi-skutterudite family of materials, (Ca x Sr 1–x ) 3 Rh 4 Sn 13 , where a quantum critical point is observed as a function of Ca concentration. We apply X-TEC to XRD data on the pyrochlore metal, Cd 2 Re 2 O 7 , to investigate its two much-debated structural phase transitions and uncover the Goldstone mode accompanying them. We demonstrate how unprecedented atomic-scale knowledge can be gained when human researchers connect the X-TEC results to physical principles. Specifically, we extract from the X-TEC–revealed selection rules that the Cd and Re displacements are approximately equal in amplitude but out of phase. This discovery reveals a previously unknown involvement of 5d 2 Re, supporting the idea of an electronic origin to the structural order. Our approach can radically transform XRD experiments by allowing in operando data analysis and enabling researchers to refine experiments by discovering interesting regions of phase space on the fly.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Interpreting dynamic-compression experiments to uncover the time dependence of freezing: Application to gallium

Using pulsed-power magnetic field sources to compress gallium to gigapascal pressures on nanosecond timescales, we report here experiments on shockless dynamic compression of a liquid metal. Time-resolved velocimetry data reveal signatures of rapid freezing from a metastable liquid state, and we demonstrate that the kinetics of this nonequilibrium solidification can be accurately simulated with a computational modeling framework we have developed in previous studies, where classical nucleation theory is coupled with hydrodynamics. Notably, velocity traces in some of our experiments show evidence of a phase transition, while others do not, even though other types of evidence suggest that solidification may be occurring in all of them. We explain how predictions made by our models regarding the presence or absence of these phase-transition signatures motivated additional experiments that later confirmed the theoretical predictions. Our analysis shows that due to the rapid, quasi-isentropic nature of the loading path, our experiments were able to compress liquid gallium to metastable states that are undercooled below the equilibrium melt temperature by more than 300 K and exhibit pressures that approach five times the equilibrium melt pressure. The understanding gained in this study should form the basis for future dynamic-compression experiments aimed at interrogating melt curves at high pressures.

gallium↗

Aging heat treatment design for Haynes 282 made by wire-feed additive manufacturing using high-throughput experiments and interpretable machine learning

Wire-feed additive manufacturing (WFAM) produces superalloys with complex thermal cycles and unique microstructures, often requiring optimized heat treatments. To address this challenge, we present a hybrid approach that combines high-throughput experiments, precipitation simulation, and machine learning to design effective aging conditions for the WFAM Haynes 282 superalloy. Our results demonstrate that the γ’ radius is the critical microstructural feature for strengthening Haynes 282 during post-heat treatment compared with the matrix composition and γ’ volume fraction. New aging conditions at 770°C for 50 hours and 730°C for 200 hours were discovered based on the machine learning model and were applied to enhance yield strength, bringing it on par with the wrought counterpart. This approach has significant implications for future AM alloy production, enabling more efficient and effective heat treatment design to achieve desired properties.

CALPHAD↗

FLOWS AT THE EDGE OF AN ACTIVE REGION: OBSERVATION AND INTERPRETATION

Upflows observed at the edges of active regions have been proposed as the source of the slow solar wind. In the particular case of Active Region (AR) 10942, where such an upflow has been already observed, we want to evaluate the part of this upflow that actually remains confined in the magnetic loops that connect AR 10942 to AR 10943. Both active regions were visible simultaneously on the solar disk and were observed by STEREO/SECCHI EUVI. Using Hinode/EIS spectra, we determine the Doppler shifts and densities in AR 10943 and AR 10942 in order to evaluate the mass flows. We also perform magnetic field extrapolations to assess the connectivity between AR 10942 and AR 10943. AR 10943 displays a persistent downflow in Fe XII. Magnetic extrapolations including both ARs show that this downflow can be connected to the upflow in AR 10942. We estimate that the mass flow received by AR 10943 areas connected to AR 10942 represents about 18% of the mass flow from AR 10942. We conclude that the upflows observed on the edge of active regions represent either large-scale loops with mass flowing along them (accounting for about one-fifth of the total mass flow in this example) or open magnetic field structures where the slow solar wind originates.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

IONIZED GAS IN THE GALACTIC CENTER: NEW OBSERVATIONS AND INTERPRETATION

We present new observations of the [Ne II] emission from the ionized gas in Sgr A West with improved resolution and sensitivity. About half of the emission comes from gas with kinematics indicating it is orbiting in a plane tipped about 25 Degree-Sign from the Galactic plane. This plane is consistent with that derived previously for the circumnuclear molecular disk and the northern arm and western arc ionized features. However, unlike most previous studies, we conclude that the ionized gas is not moving along the ionized features, but on more nearly circular paths. The observed speeds are close to, but probably somewhat less than expected for orbital motions in the potential of the central black hole and stars and have a small inward component. The spatial distribution of the emission is well fitted by a spiral pattern. We discuss possible physical explanations for the spatial distribution and kinematics of the ionized gas, and conclude that both may be best explained by a one-armed spiral density wave, which also accounts for both the observed low velocities and the inward velocity component. We suggest that a density wave may result from the precession of elliptical orbits in the potential of the black hole and stellar mass distribution.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

SLOW RISE AND PARTIAL ERUPTION OF A DOUBLE-DECKER FILAMENT. I. OBSERVATIONS AND INTERPRETATION

We study an active-region dextral filament that was composed of two branches separated in height by about 13 Mm, as inferred from three-dimensional reconstruction by combining SDO and STEREO-B observations. This 'double-decker' configuration sustained for days before the upper branch erupted with a GOES-class M1.0 flare on 2010 August 7. Analyzing this evolution, we obtain the following main results. (1) During the hours before the eruption, filament threads within the lower branch were observed to intermittently brighten up, lift upward, and then merge with the upper branch. The merging process contributed magnetic flux and current to the upper branch, resulting in its quasi-static ascent. (2) This transfer might serve as the key mechanism for the upper branch to lose equilibrium by reaching the limiting flux that can be stably held down by the overlying field or by reaching the threshold of the torus instability. (3) The erupting branch first straightened from a reverse S shape that followed the polarity inversion line and then writhed into a forward S shape. This shows a transfer of left-handed helicity in a sequence of writhe-twist-writhe. The fact that the initial writhe is converted into the twist of the flux rope excludes the helical kink instability as the trigger process of the eruption, but supports the occurrence of the instability in the main phase, which is indeed indicated by the very strong writhing motion. (4) A hard X-ray sigmoid, likely of coronal origin, formed in the gap between the two original filament branches in the impulsive phase of the associated flare. This supports a model of transient sigmoids forming in the vertical flare current sheet. (5) Left-handed magnetic helicity is inferred for both branches of the dextral filament. (6) Two types of force-free magnetic configurations are compatible with the data, a double flux rope equilibrium and a single flux rope situated above a loop arcade.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

SPECTRAL ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION OF THE {gamma}-RAY EMISSION FROM THE STARBURST GALAXY NGC 253

Very high energy (VHE; E {>=} 100 GeV) and high-energy (HE; 100 MeV {<=} E {<=} 100 GeV) data from {gamma}-ray observations performed with the H.E.S.S. telescope array and the Fermi-LAT instrument, respectively, are analyzed in order to investigate the non-thermal processes in the starburst galaxy NGC 253. The VHE {gamma}-ray data can be described by a power law in energy with differential photon index {Gamma} = 2.14 {+-} 0.18{sub stat} {+-} 0.30{sub sys} and differential flux normalization at 1 TeV of F{sub 0} = (9.6 {+-} 1.5{sub stat}(+ 5.7, -2.9){sub sys}) Multiplication-Sign 10{sup -14} TeV{sup -1} cm{sup -2} s{sup -1}. A power-law fit to the differential HE {gamma}-ray spectrum reveals a photon index of {Gamma} 2.24 {+-} 0.14{sub stat} {+-} 0.03{sub sys} and an integral flux between 200 MeV and 200 GeV of F(0.2-200 GeV) = (4.9 {+-} 1.0{sub stat} {+-} 0.3{sub sys}) Multiplication-Sign 10{sup -9} cm{sup -2} s{sup -1}. No evidence for a spectral break or turnover is found over the dynamic range of both the LAT instrument and the H.E.S.S. experiment: a combined fit of a power law to the HE and VHE {gamma}-ray data results in a differential photon index {Gamma} = 2.34 {+-} 0.03 with a p-value of 30%. The {gamma}-ray observations indicate that at least about 20% of the energy of the cosmic rays (CRs) capable of producing hadronic interactions is channeled into pion production. The smooth alignment between the spectra in the HE and VHE {gamma}-ray domain suggests that the same transport processes dominate in the entire energy range. Advection is most likely responsible for charged particle removal from the starburst nucleus from GeV to multiple TeV energies. In a hadronic scenario for the {gamma}-ray production, the single overall power-law spectrum observed would therefore correspond to the mean energy spectrum produced by the ensemble of CR sources in the starburst region.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

AN INTERPRETATION OF THE POSSIBLE MECHANISMS OF TWO GROUND-LEVEL ENHANCEMENT EVENTS

We have carried out this work to clarify the possible mechanisms of two important high-energy particle events (GLE69 2005 January 20, 06:46 UT and GLE70 2006 December 13, 02:45 UT). For this purpose, the cosmic-ray intensities registered by neutron monitors at several sites have been analyzed and studied with concurrent solar flares of different energy bands. To determine whether the ground-level enhancement (GLE) might be caused by the energy released from a solar flare or a CME-driven shock, we identify the particle injection time in terms of the lowest value of the spectral indices deduced from proton fluxes. If the GLE is caused by the energy released from particle acceleration in a solar flare, the intensive phase of the flare representing extreme emission should lie within the injection time. While fulfilling this criterion, it is further necessary to understand the possible relativistic energy computed in terms of the possible travel time deduced by employing the observational time lag between the GLE and the concurrent solar flare. Accordingly, we have found that GLE69 is procured with sufficient possible relativistic energy ({approx}1.619 GeV) by the energy released from particle accelerations in the intensive phases of a solar flare components that have been corroborated by the injection time. The intensive phases of the flare components have also been justified with the prominent phases of a solar radio type III burst. For event GLE70, the particle injection time lies within the CME-driven shock justified by a solar radio type II burst which seems to be capable of procuring sufficient possible relativistic energies ({approx}1.231 to {approx}2.017 GeV). It is also noted that any fractional amount of energy ({approx}0.226 to {approx}0.694 GeV) from preceding flare components might be considered as a contribution to the shock acceleration process. Thus, GLE70 is presumably caused by the sum of the energy released mostly from a CME-driven shock and partially from preceding flare components.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

THE INTERPRETATION OF ROTATION MEASURES IN THE PRESENCE OF INHOMOGENEOUS FOREGROUND SCREENS

We analyze the redshift evolution of the rotation measure (RM) in the Taylor et al. data set, based on NVSS radio data at 21 cm, and compare with results from our previous work based on RMs determined at lower wavelengths, e.g., 6 cm. We find that, in spite of the same analysis, Taylor et al.'s data set produces neither an increase of the RM dispersion with redshift nor the correlation of RM strength with Mg II absorption lines that we found previously. We develop a simple model to understand this discrepancy. The model assumes that the Faraday rotators, namely the QSO's host galaxy and the intervening Mg II host galaxies along the line of sight, contain partially inhomogeneous RM screens. We find that this leads to an increasing depolarization toward longer wavelengths and to wavelength-dependent RM values. In particular, due to cosmological redshift, observations at fixed wavelength of sources at different redshift are affected differently by depolarization and are sensitive to different Faraday active components. For example, at 21 cm the polarized signal is averaged out by inhomogeneous Faraday screens and the measured RM mostly reflects the Milky Way contributions for low-redshift QSOs whereas polarization is relatively unaffected for high-redshift QSOs. Similar effects are produced by intervening galaxies acting as inhomogeneous screens. Finally, we assess the performance of RM synthesis on our synthetic models and conclude that the study of magnetic fields in galaxies as a function of cosmic time will benefit considerably from the application of such a technique, provided there is sufficient instrumental bandwidth. For this purpose, high-frequency channels appear preferable but not strictly necessary.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

AN ASTEROID BELT INTERPRETATION FOR THE TIMING VARIATIONS OF THE MILLISECOND PULSAR B1937+21

Pulsar timing observations have revealed companions to neutron stars that include other neutron stars, white dwarfs, main-sequence stars, and planets. We demonstrate that the correlated and apparently stochastic residual times of arrival from the millisecond pulsar B1937+21 are consistent with the signature of an asteroid belt having a total mass {approx}< 0.05 M{sub Circled-Plus }. Unlike the solar system's asteroid belt, the best fit pulsar asteroid belt extends over a wide range of radii, consistent with the absence of any shepherding companions. We suggest that any pulsar that has undergone accretion-driven spin-up and subsequently evaporated its companion may harbor orbiting asteroid mass objects. The resulting timing variations may fundamentally limit the timing precision of some of the other millisecond pulsars. Observational tests of the asteroid belt model include identifying periodicities from individual asteroids, which are difficult; testing for statistical stationarity, which becomes possible when observations are conducted over a longer observing span; and searching for reflected radio emission.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A FRAMEWORK FOR INTERPRETING FAST RADIO TRANSIENTS SEARCH EXPERIMENTS: APPLICATION TO THE V-FASTR EXPERIMENT

We define a framework for determining constraints on the detection rate of fast transient events from a population of underlying sources, with a view to incorporate beam shape, frequency effects, scattering effects, and detection efficiency into the metric. We then demonstrate a method for combining independent data sets into a single event rate constraint diagram, using a probabilistic approach to the limits on parameter space. We apply this new framework to present the latest results from the V-FASTR experiment, a commensal fast transients search using the Very Long Baseline Array (VLBA). In the 20 cm band, V-FASTR now has the ability to probe the regions of parameter space of importance for the observed Lorimer and Keane fast radio transient candidates by combining the information from observations with differing bandwidths, and properly accounting for the source dispersion measure, VLBA antenna beam shape, experiment time sampling, and stochastic nature of events. We then apply the framework to combine the results of the V-FASTR and Allen Telescope Array Fly's Eye experiments, demonstrating their complementarity. Expectations for fast transients experiments for the SKA Phase I dish array are then computed, and the impact of large differential bandwidths is discussed.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Interpreting near-infrared hydrogen line ratios in T Tauri stars

In accreting young stars, one of the prominent spectral features in the near-infrared is the Paschen and Brackett series in emission. We examine hydrogen line ratios for 16 classical T Tauri stars from SpeX spectra and assess the trends with veiling and accretion. The observed line ratios are compared with two theoretical models for line formation: (1) Baker and Menzel's Case B for radiative ionization and recombination and (2) a set of local line excitation calculations designed to replicate the conditions in T Tauri winds and magnetic accretion columns (KF). While the comparison between Case B and observed line ratios implies a wide range in electron density and temperature among the hydrogen line formation regions in T Tauri stars, the predictions of the local line excitation models give consistent results across multiple diagnostics. Under the assumptions of the local line excitation calculations, we find that n {sub H} in the hydrogen line formation region is constrained to 2 × 10{sup 10}-2 × 10{sup 11} cm{sup –3}, where stars with higher accretion rates have densities at the higher end of this range. Because of uncertainties in extinction, temperature is not well delineated, but falls within the range expected for collisional excitation to produce the line photons. We introduce new diagnostics for assessing extinction based on near-infrared hydrogen line ratios from the local line excitation calculations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

MAGIICAT III. Interpreting self-similarity of the circumgalactic medium with virial mass using Mg II absorption

In Churchill et al., we used halo abundance matching applied to 182 galaxies in the Mg II Absorber-Galaxy Catalog (MAGIICAT) and showed that the mean Mg II λ2796 equivalent width follows a tight inverse-square power law, W{sub r} (2796)∝(D/R {sub vir}){sup –2}, with projected location relative to the galaxy virial radius and that the Mg II absorption covering fraction is effectively invariant with galaxy virial mass, M {sub h}, over the range 10.7 ≤ log M {sub h}/M {sub ☉} ≤ 13.9. In this work, we explore multivariate relationships between W{sub r} (2796), virial mass, impact parameter, virial radius, and the theoretical cooling radius that further elucidate self-similarity in the cool/warm (T = 10{sup 4}-10{sup 4.5} K) circumgalactic medium (CGM) with virial mass. We show that virial mass determines the extent and strength of the Mg II absorbing gas such that the mean W{sub r} (2796) increases with virial mass at fixed distance while decreasing with galactocentric distance for fixed virial mass. The majority of the absorbing gas resides within D ≅ 0.3 R {sub vir}, independent of both virial mass and minimum absorption threshold; inside this region, and perhaps also in the region 0.3 < D/R {sub vir} ≤ 1, the mean W{sub r} (2796) is independent of virial mass. Contrary to absorber-galaxy cross-correlation studies, we show there is no anti-correlation between W{sub r} (2796) and virial mass. We discuss how simulations and theory constrained by observations support self-similarity of the cool/warm CGM via the physics governing star formation, gas-phase metal enrichment, recycling efficiency of galactic scale winds, filament and merger accretion, and overdensity of local environment as a function of virial mass.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Physical interpretation of the angle-dependent magnetic helicity spectrum in the solar wind: The nature of turbulent fluctuations near the proton gyroradius scale

Motivated by recent observations of distinct parallel and perpendicular signatures in magnetic helicity measurements segregated by wave period and angle between the local magnetic field and the solar wind velocity, this paper undertakes a comparison of three intervals of Ulysses data with synthetic time series generated from a physically motivated turbulence model. From these comparisons, it is hypothesized that the observed signatures result from a perpendicular cascade of Alfvénic fluctuations and a local, non-turbulent population of ion-cyclotron or whistler waves generated by temperature anisotropy instabilities. By constraining the model's free parameters through comparison to in situ data, it is found that, on average, ∼95% of the power near dissipative scales is contained in a perpendicular Alfvénic cascade and that the parallel fluctuations are propagating nearly unidirectionally. The effects of aliasing on magnetic helicity measurements are considered and shown to be significant near the Nyquist frequency.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗