SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “dynamic model learning”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,279 records · Page 71

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2026

Characterizing Defect Dynamics in Silicon Carbide Using Symmetry-Adapted Collective Variables and Machine Learning Interatomic Potentials

Silicon carbide (SiC) divacancies are attractive candidates for spin-defect qubits possessing long coherence times and optical addressability. The high activation barriers associated with SiC defect formation and motion pose challenges for their study by first-principles molecular dynamics. In this work, we develop and deploy machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) to accelerate defect dynamics simulations while retaining ab initio accuracy. We employ an active learning strategy comprising symmetry-adapted collective variable discovery and enhanced sampling to compile configurationally diverse training data, calculation of energies and forces using density functional theory (DFT), and training of an E(3)-equivariant MLIP based on the Allegro model. Here, the trained MLIP reproduces DFT-level accuracy in defect transition activation free energy barriers, enables the efficient and stable simulation of multidefect 216-atom supercells, and permits an analysis of the temperature dependence of defect thermodynamic stability and formation/annihilation kinetics to propose an optimal annealing temperature to maximally stabilize VV divacancies.

Computer simulations↗

DOE OSTI2023

From Optimization to Sampling Through Gradient Flows

Optimization and sampling algorithms play a central role in science and engineering as they enable finding optimal predictions, policies, and recommendations, as well as expected and equilibrium states of complex systems. The notion of “optimality” is formalized by the choice of an objective function, while the notion of an “expected” state is specified by a probabilistic model for the distribution of states. Optimizing rugged objective functions and sampling multimodal distributions is computationally challenging, especially in high-dimensional problems. Here, for this reason, many optimization and sampling methods have been developed by researchers working in disparate fields such as Bayesian statistics, molecular dynamics, genetics, quantum chemistry, machine learning, weather forecasting, econometrics, and medical imaging.

Trillos, N. García↗

DOE OSTI2021

Electricity Market Dynamics as Smooth Games: Organizing Gradient-Based Learners and Identifying Instabilities

Wide-spread adoption of machine learning and distributed energy production has the potential to fundamentally change behaviours of energy markets. In practice, along with the benefits, previously unseen instabilities have begun emerging in markets currently embracing these technologies. In this report we study electricity markets as dynamical systems arising in smooth games, where energy consumers are modelled as gradient-based learners who interact on a graph through distributed energy producers. We give simple examples of how instabilities can arise even when the consumers’ local objectives seem reasonable and how these instabilities can be remedied. Drawing insights from these examples, we begin developing a general model of optimization-driven electricity market dynamics and give conditions for ensuring local Nash equilibria of the system are stable fixed points of the dynamics. Our results demonstrate how models of electricity market dynamics might be used for deriving formal guarantees in order to stabilize markets and enact regulatory policies in the face of market shocks.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS1991

Requirements analysis notebook for the flight data systems definition in the Real-Time Systems Engineering Laboratory (RSEL)

A hybrid requirements analysis methodology was developed, based on the practices actually used in developing a Space Generic Open Avionics Architecture. During the development of this avionics architecture, a method of analysis able to effectively define the requirements for this space avionics architecture was developed. In this methodology, external interfaces and relationships are defined, a static analysis resulting in a static avionics model was developed, operating concepts for simulating the requirements were put together, and a dynamic analysis of the execution needs for the dynamic model operation was planned. The systems engineering approach was used to perform a top down modified structured analysis of a generic space avionics system and to convert actual program results into generic requirements. CASE tools were used to model the analyzed system and automatically generate specifications describing the model's requirements. Lessons learned in the use of CASE tools, the architecture, and the design of the Space Generic Avionics model were established, and a methodology notebook was prepared for NASA. The weaknesses of standard real-time methodologies for practicing systems engineering, such as Structured Analysis and Object Oriented Analysis, were identified.

Wray, Richard B.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Linear and nonlinear trending and prediction for AVHRR time series data

The variability of AVHRR calibration coefficient in time was analyzed using algorithms of linear and non-linear time series analysis. Specifically we have used the spline trend modeling, autoregressive process analysis, incremental neural network learning algorithm and redundancy functional testing. The analysis performed on available AVHRR data sets revealed that (1) the calibration data have nonlinear dependencies, (2) the calibration data depend strongly on the target temperature, (3) both calibration coefficients and the temperature time series can be modeled, in the first approximation, as autonomous dynamical systems, (4) the high frequency residuals of the analyzed data sets can be best modeled as an autoregressive process of the 10th degree. We have dealt with a nonlinear identification problem and the problem of noise filtering (data smoothing). The system identification and filtering are significant problems for AVHRR data sets. The algorithms outlined in this study can be used for the future EOS missions. Prediction and smoothing algorithms for time series of calibration data provide a functional characterization of the data. Those algorithms can be particularly useful when calibration data are incomplete or sparse.

Smid, J.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Tuning Neural Network Models for Improved Prediction of Boundary Layer Transition

Boundary layer transition can strongly impact flight vehicle performance as it influences surface skin friction and aerodynamic heating, making accurate transition prediction a key to designing next generation aircraft. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) have shown promise toward predicting laminar-turbulent transition based on linear stability correlations. The computational efficiency of ANNs and the substantially reduced user involvement in relation to direct computations based on the linear stability theory (LST) makes them an attractive methodology for integrating the LST based correlations in computational fluid dynamics codes. Tollmien-Schlichting (TS) waves correspond to the dominant transition mechanism in 2D or weakly 3D subsonic boundary layers, such as those encountered in general aviation applications. Improvements to neural network model accuracy in predicting the amplification rates of TS instability waves have been investigated by leveraging recent machine learning developments in conjunction with surrogate optimization techniques and via suitable augmentation of the data used to train the networks. The optimized models trained on the modified dataset reduced the average transition location errors on different airfoils at several flow conditions by 51% of the original manually-tuned network’s errors on the same flow cases. The actual transition locations were derived from the Langley Stability and Transition Analysis Code (LASTRAC).

Machine Learning↗

DOE OSTI2025

Advancements and opportunities to improve bottom–up estimates of global wetland methane emissions

Wetlands are the single largest natural source of atmospheric methane (CH 4 ), contributing approximately 30% of total surface CH 4 emissions, and they have been identified as the largest source of uncertainty in the global CH 4 budget based on the most recent Global Carbon Project CH 4 report. High uncertainties in the bottom–up estimates of wetland CH 4 emissions pose significant challenges for accurately understanding their spatiotemporal variations, and for the scientific community to monitor wetland CH 4 emissions from space. In fact, there are large disagreements between bottom–up estimates versus top–down estimates inferred from inversion of atmospheric CH 4 concentrations. To address these critical gaps, we review recent development, validation, and applications of bottom–up estimates of global wetland CH 4 emissions, as well as how they are used in top–down inversions. These bottom–up estimates, using (1) empirical biogeochemical modeling (e.g. WetCHARTs: 125–208 TgCH 4 yr -1 ); (2) process-based biogeochemical modeling (e.g. WETCHIMP: 190 ± 39 TgCH 4 yr -1 ); and (3) data-driven machine learning approach (e.g. UpCH4: 146 ± 43 TgCH 4 yr -1 ). Bottom–up estimates are subject to significant uncertainties (~80 Tg CH 4 yr -1 ), and the ranges of different estimates do not overlap, further amplifying the overall uncertainty when combining multiple data products. These substantial uncertainties highlight gaps in our understanding of wetland CH 4 biogeochemistry and wetland inundation dynamics. Major tropical and arctic wetland complexes are regional hotspots of CH 4 emissions. However, the scarcity of satellite data over the tropics and northern high latitudes offer limited information for top–down inversions to improve bottom–up estimates. Recent advances in surface measurements of CH 4 fluxes (e.g. FLUXNET-CH 4 ) across a wide range of ecosystems including bogs, fens, marshes, and forest swamps provide an unprecedented opportunity to improve existing bottom–up estimates of wetland CH 4 estimates. We suggest that continuous long-term surface measurements at representative wetlands, high fidelity wetland mapping, combined with an appropriate modeling framework, will be needed to significantly improve global estimates of wetland CH 4 emissions. There is also a pressing unmet need for fine-resolution and high-precision satellite CH 4 observations directed at wetlands.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Multi-fidelity physics-informed machine learning for probabilistic damage diagnosis

Machine learning (ML) models are gaining popularity in structural health monitoring (SHM) because of their ability to learn the complex relationship between damage and sensor data. However, the lack of sufficient experimental data for structures with different degrees of damage is a key problem in training ML models for SHM. This problem can be alleviated by using physics-based models to generate the required training data to build physics-informed ML (PIML) models for SHM. However, it takes significant computational effort to perform enough high-fidelity simulations of the diagnostic test. It is thus desirable to know whether the available computational resource budget should be expended on numerous low-fidelity physics simulations, or a small number of high-fidelity simulations, or their combination. In this paper, we investigate this aspect of generating adequate training data for PIML, by constructing multi-fidelity PIML models. We evaluate the performance of several PIML models, trained with different amounts of low-fidelity and high-fidelity data, in locating hidden cracks in concrete structures using a nonlinear dynamics-based diagnosis technique. Here, we find that high-fidelity physics simulations that do not cover the (test and damage) parameter space do not improve the performance of diagnostic PIML models built using data from many low-fidelity physics simulations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Multiplicative Shot-Noise: A New Route to Stability of Plastic Networks

Fluctuations of synaptic weights, among many other physical, biological, and ecological quantities, are driven by coincident events of two “parent” processes. Here we propose a multiplicative shot-noise model that can capture the behaviors of a broad range of such natural phenomena, and analytically derive an approximation that accurately predicts its statistics. We apply our results to study the effects of a multiplicative synaptic plasticity rule that was recently extracted from measurements in physiological conditions. Using mean-field theory analysis and network simulations, we investigate how this rule shapes the connectivity and dynamics of recurrent spiking neural networks. The multiplicative plasticity rule is shown to support efficient learning of input stimuli, and it gives a stable, unimodal synaptic-weight distribution with a large fraction of strong synapses. The strong synapses remain stable over long times but do not “run away.” Our results suggest that the multiplicative shot-noise offers a new route to understand the tradeoff between flexibility and stability in neural circuits and other dynamic networks.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Explaining drivers of housing prices with nonlinear hedonic regressions

Housing markets play a critical role in shaping the spatial and demographic evolution of urban areas. Simulating housing price dynamics can enhance projections of future urban development outcomes. However, traditional hedonic regressions for housing prices, which neglect nonlinear interactions among explanatory variables, often exhibit limited predictive performance. While machine learning (ML) methods can provide a more flexible representation of the relationships between predictors, they are often regarded as “black boxes” due to their complexity and lack of transparency. Interpretable ML techniques provide a promising route by combining the flexibility of ML methods with approaches to analyze the relationships between inputs and outputs. In this study, we employ interpretable ML to analyze the patterns driving the housing market in Baltimore, Maryland, USA. We train an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to predict Baltimore housing prices based on structural characteristics (e.g., home size, number of stories) and locational attributes (e.g., distance to the city center). We then conduct sensitivity and Partial Dependence Plot (PDP) analyses to interpret the fitted ANN model. We find that the ML model achieves higher predictive accuracy and explains 16 % more of housing price variance than a traditional linear regression model. The interpretable ML model also reveals more nuanced and realistic nonlinear relationships between housing sales price and predictors as well as interactive effects underlying Baltimore home price dynamics. For instance, while the linear model indicates a steady housing price increase over time, our interpretable ML model detects a post-2008 decline, with smaller properties experiencing the sharpest drop.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Forecasting influenza activity using machine-learned mobility map

Human mobility is a primary driver of infectious disease spread. However, existing data is limited in availability, coverage, granularity, and timeliness. Data-driven forecasts of disease dynamics are crucial for decision-making by health officials and private citizens alike. In this work, we focus on a machine-learned anonymized mobility map (hereon referred to as AMM) aggregated over hundreds of millions of smartphones and evaluate its utility in forecasting epidemics. We factor AMM into a metapopulation model to retrospectively forecast influenza in the USA and Australia. We show that the AMM model performs on-par with those based on commuter surveys, which are sparsely available and expensive. We also compare it with gravity and radiation based models of mobility, and find that the radiation model’s performance is quite similar to AMM and commuter flows. Additionally, we demonstrate our model’s ability to predict disease spread even across state boundaries. Our work contributes towards developing timely infectious disease forecasting at a global scale using human mobility datasets expanding their applications in the area of infectious disease epidemiology.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Enhancing the formation of ionic defects to study the ice Ih/XI transition with molecular dynamics simulations

Ice Ih, the common form of ice in the biosphere, contains proton disorder. Its proton-ordered counterpart, ice XI, is thermodynamically stable below 72 K. However, the formation of ice XI is kinetically hindered, and experimentally it is obtained by doping with KOH. Doping creates ionic defects that promote the migration of protons and the associated change in proton configuration. In this article, we mimic the effect of doping with a bias potential that enhances the formation of ionic defects in molecular dynamics simulations. The recombination of the ions thus formed proceeds through fast migration of the hydroxide along hydrogen bond loops, providing a physical and expedite way to change the proton configuration. Here, a key ingredient of this approach is a machine learning potential trained with density functional theory data and capable of modelling molecular dissociation. We exemplify the usefulness of this idea by studying the order-disorder transition using an appropriate order parameter that distinguishes the proton environments in ice Ih and XI. We calculate the changes in free energy, enthalpy, and entropy associated with the transition. Our estimated entropy agrees with experiment within the error bars of the calculation.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2025

Digital Twin Framework for PIP-II Linac: AI-Driven Multi-Scale Modeling from Ion Source to 800 MeV

The PIP-II linac will enable >1.2 MW beam power for DUNE, requiring unprecedented operational reliability across its warm front-end (RFQ, MEBT) and five distinct SRF sections operating at 162.5/325/650 MHz. We present a comprehensive digital twin framework uniquely combining a fully differentiable fast beam transport code with neural network surrogates trained on high-fidelity PIC simulations, capturing space charge and nonlinear dynamics beyond traditional envelope codes while achieving 10⁴ speedup at <1% accuracy. End-to-end differentiability enables gradient-based optimization across 500+ parameters simultaneously previously impossible with conventional tools while the model incorporates static/dynamic errors and serves as a virtual commissioning platform for diverse hardware integration. The framework facilitates reinforcement learning for pulsed/CW mode transitions, predictive maintenance through anomaly detection, and autonomous tuning algorithm development with real-time execution capability. Validation against physics simulations shows excellent agreement for the front-end, with initial results demonstrating potential for 30% commissioning time reduction and proactive fault mitigation, providing a scalable blueprint for operating next-generation high-intensity accelerators.

Pathak, Abhishek [Fermilab] (ORCID:000000021704208↗

DOE OSTI2022

Invertible Neural Networks for Airfoil Design

We report the airfoil design problem, in which an engineer seeks a shape with desired performance characteristics, is fundamental to aerodynamics. Design workflows traditionally rely on iterative optimization methods using low-fidelity integral boundary-layer methods as higher-fidelity adjoint-based computational fluid dynamics methods are computationally expensive. Surrogate-based approaches can accelerate the design process but still rely on some iterative inverse design procedure. In this work, we leverage emerging invertible neural network (INN) tools to enable the rapid inverse design of airfoil shapes for wind turbines. INNs are specialized deep-learning models with well-defined inverse mappings. When trained appropriately, INN surrogate models are capable of forward prediction of aerodynamic and structural quantities for a given airfoil shape as well as inverse recovery of airfoil shapes with specified aerodynamic and structural characteristics. The INN approach offers a roughly 100 times speed-up compared to adjoint-based methods for inverse design. We demonstrate the INN tool for inverse design on three test cases of 100 airfoils each that satisfy the performance characteristics close to those of airfoils used in wind-turbine blades. All generated shapes satisfy the desired aerodynamic characteristics, demonstrating the success of the INN approach for inverse design of airfoils.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Communicating Metrics of Land Surface Temperature Variability Using Multi-sensor Machine Learning

Land surface temperature (LST) is a key climate observable used to detect changes in the Earth’s surface energy budget that influence carbon and water cycles. Land surface temperature exhibits strong diurnal variability, which geostationary satellites can observe at scale thanks to their temporal resolution. Due to anthropogenic climate and land use changes, the surface energy balance has been considerably modified and may be described by changes in diurnal temperature range and extremes. Using high performance computing and datasets from the NASA Earth Exchange, we exploit co-located, co-temporal observations from low-earth orbit (LEO) and geostationary (GEO) sensors to develop a deep learning-based method for LEO-to-GEO algorithm emulation. Our model is trained to predict MODIS Terra LST from GOES-16 thermal bands and achieves validation error <2K. Application of the model to unseen times of day (observed by MODIS Aqua) and a new GEO sensor (Himawari-8) observing an unseen spatial domain, demonstrate the generalization of the deep learning model across space, time and spectra. Further, time series clustering approaches are examined with the objective of identifying key indicators of change in diurnal cycling and extremes on a continental scale. Communicating LST variability observed by geostationary satellites can have impacts in multiple disciplines, from understanding of snow, vegetation and soil dynamics, to recognizing trends in heat events relevant to human health.

Kate Duffy↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Holistic and Pragmatic Standards Processes Enable Interdisciplinary Science

Open, interdisciplinary science inevitably relies heavily on standards. Standards are those often unseen agreements that we take for granted when systems and processes are working fine. Yet standards work is perpetual, laborious, and sometimes contentious, especially for standards to work across diverse disciplines. Standards development, maintenance, and implementation is a complex, ongoing socio-technical process. NASA has developed a progressively open science policy and strategy that calls for the establishment of a data standards process reaching across the five diverse divisions of the Science Mission Directorate. This is a delicate exercise. We, therefore, seek to apply a holistic yet pragmatic approach to developing and maintaining a standards process. We adopt an ecological philosophy that focuses on the interactions within the data ecosystem and how standards facilitate those interactions. We couple high-level analysis with on the ground experimentation. We began by 1) mapping information ecosystem components (e.g. data centers, missions, services, protocols, users), 2)establishing how the components interact (e.g. sharing (meta)data, funding, personnel exchange), and 3) modelling system dynamics (e.g. creation of products from multiple data centers, redundant processes, shared services). The goal is to apply understanding of the ecosystem to real world applications (e.g. planning a new mission, implementing new policy requirements, improving process efficiency, etc.). We have also conducted studies of historical standardization efforts, documenting lessons learned and cautionary tales. We then contrast this more abstract work with real examples. We reviewed and assessed multiple existing standards development processes both within and external to NASA. We now work to implement an initial test process which can be further optimized. We seek to define a consistent approach for assigning persistent identifiers for research objects, especially for the purposes of citation. The experience from this relatively ‘simple’ test case adds a pragmatic perspective on how researchers and engineers actually work. This presentation will review the details of this methodology, our initial findings, and how they might apply to other interdisciplinary standardization efforts.

Mark A Parsons↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Multidisciplinary Design Optimization and Analysis of an Open Rotor Stage: Part 1

Successful design of open rotor propulsors requires effective analysis across multiple disciplines, including aerodynamics, acoustics, and structures. A viable design must not only be efficient but must also produce an acceptable level of noise and meet all static and dynamic structural requirements. For design and optimization, this is especially challenging because running high fidelity analyses is resource-intensive, and optimizing a design may require many thousands of cases to be analyzed. For this reason, the NASA team has applied design methodology that utilizes low-cost aerodynamic methods, machine learning models, and high-fidelity analyses when necessary. This includes standard two-dimensional methods such as throughflow analysis and quasi-3D blade-to-blade CFD, as well as some newly developed methods. Optimization using 3D CFD is necessary to maximize performance, and this is considered as well. All optimizations are carried out subject to structural constraints evaluated using finite element analysis. Doing this accurately requires a robust trunnion design, capable of pitching the blade between cruise and takeoff conditions while maintaining acceptable factor of safety. Hot to cold analysis must also be applied in order to correctly determine the as-manufactured shape. For acoustics, the unsteady pressures on the blade surfaces must be predicted, and this can be done either through full-annulus unsteady CFD or through a nonlinear harmonic method (NLH). NLH can run much faster, allowing some acoustic considerations to be made earlier in the design process. The design process is ongoing, and this presentation will review the current status and planned next steps. This part of the talk will focus on aerodynamic performance and be followed by a talk on structures and acoustics.

Design↗

DOE OSTI2025

Digital Twin Framework for PIP-II Linac: AI-Driven Multi-Scale Modeling from Ion Source to 800 MeV

The PIP-II linac will enable >1.2 MW beam power for DUNE, requiring unprecedented operational reliability across its warm front-end (RFQ, MEBT) and five distinct SRF sections operating at 162.5/325/650 MHz. We present a comprehensive digital twin framework uniquely combining a fully differentiable fast beam transport code with neural network surrogates trained on high-fidelity PIC simulations, capturing space charge and nonlinear dynamics beyond traditional envelope codes while achieving 10⁴× speedup at <1% accuracy. End-to-end differentiability enables gradient-based optimization across 500+ parameters simultaneously—previously impossible with conventional tools—while the model incorporates static/dynamic errors and serves as a virtual commissioning platform for diverse hardware integration. The framework facilitates reinforcement learning for pulsed/CW mode transitions, predictive maintenance through anomaly detection, and autonomous tuning algorithm development with real-time execution capability. Validation against physics simulations shows excellent agreement for the front-end, with initial results demonstrating potential for 30% commissioning time reduction and proactive fault mitigation, providing a scalable blueprint for operating next-generation high-intensity accelerators.

Pathak, Abhishek [Fermilab] (ORCID:000000021704208↗