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At least 1,279 records · Page 71

Astrobiology Sample Analysis as a Design Driver

This effort supports the Astrobiology Objective 8 the Search for LIFE ON MARS PAST AND PRESENT -(Astrobiology Program Office, 1998, p.7). The essential trade analysis is between returning very small samples to the Earth while protecting them versus in situ analysis on Mars. Developing these explicit parameters encompasses design, instrumentation, system integration, human factors and surface operations for both alternatives. This allocation of capability approach incorporates a "humans and machines in the loop" model that recognizes that every exploration system involves both humans and automated systems. The question is where in the loop they occur whether on Earth, in the Mars Base, in the rover or creeping over the Mars surface.

Cohen, Marc M.↗

Efficient proactive vehicle relocation for on-demand mobility service with recurrent neural networks

One major challenge for on-demand mobility service (OMS) providers is to seamlessly match empty vehicles with trip requests so that the total vacant mileage is minimized. In this work, we develop an innovative data-driven approach for devising efficient vehicle relocation policy for OMS that (1) proactively relocates vehicles before the demand is observed and (2) reduces the inequality among drivers' income so that the proactive relocation policy is fair and is likely to be followed by drivers. Our approach represents the fusion of optimization and machine learning methods, which comprises three steps: First, we formulate the optimal proactive relocation as an optimal/stable matching problems and solve for global optimal solutions based on historical data. Second, the optimal solutions are then grouped and fed to train the deep learning models which consist of fully connected layers and long short-term memory networks. Low rank approximation is introduced to reduce the model complexity and improve the training performances. Finally, we use the trained model to predict the relocation policy which can be implemented in real time. We conduct comprehensive numerical experiments and sensitivity analyses to demonstrate the performances of the proposed method using New York City taxi data. Here, the results suggest that our method will reduce empty mileage per trip by 54-70% under optimal matching strategy, and a 25-32% reduction can also be achieved by following stable matching strategy. We also validate that the predicted relocation policies are robust in the presence of uncertain passenger demand level and passenger trip-requesting behavior.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Polaris-PARCS Sensitivity Study on LWR Fuel Cycles: Polaris Input Options

This study is the first of a multi-phase effort to assess the sensitivity of light-water reactor (LWR) core-level prediction biases to changes in lattice-level calculation parameters. Prediction bias is the measured-to-predicted difference in a core-level quantity of interest (QOI) which can be estimated by comparing the simulation results with the plant-measured data for key nuclear parameters. The LWR two-step neutronics codes employed herein are the SCALE–Polaris lattice physics code (v6.3.1) and the Purdue Advanced Reactor Core Simulator (PARCS) nodal diffusion simulator (v3.4.2), both funded and used for confirmatory analysis to support licensing by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Polaris–PARCS is used to model Watts Bar Unit 1 cycles 1–3 and Peach Bottom Unit 2 cycles 1–3. This study focuses on the impact of changes to Polaris input options such as scattering treatment or quadrature settings and how these input options induce changes in core-level quantities of interest (QOIs)bias. The report documents multiple bias assessments for different modeling choices and compares the bias magnitude to the QOI measurement uncertainties. Future companion reports will investigate the sensitivity of core-level LWR prediction bias to Polaris input options and Polaris-computed QOIs such as few-group assembly-homogenized cross sections to gain an understanding of the key drivers of prediction bias at lattice and core levels for application of a two-step LWR neutronics procedure in a licensing scenario.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Disentangling atmospheric, hydrological, and coupling uncertainties in compound flood modeling within a coupled Earth system model

Compound riverine and coastal flooding is usually driven by complex interactions among meteorological, hydrological, and ocean extremes. However, existing efforts to model this phenomenon often do not integrate hydrological processes across atmosphere–land–river–ocean systems, leading to substantial uncertainties that have not been fully examined. To bridge this gap, we leverage the new capabilities of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) that enable a multi-component framework that integrates coastally refined atmospheric, terrestrial, and oceanic components. We evaluate compound uncertainties arising from two-way land–river–ocean coupling in E3SM and track the cascading meteorological and hydrological uncertainties through ensemble simulations over the Delaware River basin and estuary during Hurricane Irene (2011). Our findings highlight the importance of two-way river–ocean coupling to compound flood modeling and demonstrate E3SM's capability in capturing compound flood extent near the coast, with a hit rate over 0.75. Our study shows the growing uncertainties that transition from atmospheric forcings to flood distribution and severity. Furthermore, an analysis based on artificial neural networks is used to assess the roles of hydrological drivers, such as infiltration and soil moisture, in the generation of compound flooding. The response of compound floods to tropical cyclones (TCs) is found to be susceptible to these often overlooked drivers. For instance, the flooded area could increase more than 2-fold (∼2.4) if Hurricane Irene were preceded by an extreme antecedent soil moisture condition (AMC). The results not only support the use of a multi-component framework for interactive flooding processes, but also underscore the necessity of broader definitions of compound flooding that encompass the simultaneous occurrence of intense precipitation, storm surge, and high AMC during TCs.

Feng, Dongyu [Pacific Northwest National Laborator↗

Conceptual Design of a Tiltduct Reference Vehicle for Urban Air Mobility

NASA is establishing a fleet of conceptual air vehicle designs to support research and development for Urban Air Mobility (UAM). This fleet of vehicles will enable examination of the sensitivity of UAM vehicle designs to technology assumptions, identify key research and development needs for UAM aircraft, and provide the UAM community with reference vehicles that are publicly available and based upon known assumptions. To date, five six-passenger reference vehicles have been published: a quadrotor, a side-by-side, a lift-plus-cruise, a single-main-rotor helicopter, and a tiltwing. To increase the breadth of vehicle technologies encapsulated in the fleet of NASA UAM reference vehicles, this paper establishes a tiltduct vehicle as an addition to the fleet. The fleet will continue to evolve as future analyses and trade studies are performed. The tiltduct reference vehicle has six tilting ducted proprotors. This paper describes the initial configuration downselection; discusses ducted proprotor design rules of thumb as they applied to the conceptual design of the reference vehicle; describes the vehicle sizing, trade studies, and tuning of models performed; and finally, compares the resulting tiltduct vehicle against the other six-passenger NASA UAM reference vehicles. The high-level analyses performed for this study did not indicate significant differences in performance between the tiltduct and tiltwing reference vehicles, and so vehicle performance alone may not be a key driver in the selection of a tiltduct vehicle over a tiltwing vehicle. However, if ducts are found to have significant acoustical benefits, then acoustical priorities may provide a compelling reason to incorporate ducted proprotors. One significant limitation of the design presented in this paper is that the ducted proprotor performance was tuned based upon performance characteristics observed during historical tests with disk loadings (defined as thrust divided by proprotor disk area) of 125-250 lb/ft^2. The tiltduct vehicle designed in this study has a disk loading of 30 lb/ft^2, to be more representative of UAM vehicles; further studies to understand performance of ducted proprotors at representative disk loadings are warranted.

Tiltduct↗

Conceptual Design of a Tiltduct Reference Vehicle for Urban Air Mobility

NASA is establishing a fleet of conceptual air vehicle designs to support research and development for Urban Air Mobility (UAM). This fleet of vehicles will enable examination of the sensitivity of UAM vehicle designs to technology assumptions, identify key research and development needs for UAM aircraft, and provide the UAM community with reference vehicles that are publicly available and based upon known assumptions. To date, five six-passenger UAM reference vehicles have been published: a single-main-rotor helicopter, a side-by-side helicopter, a quadrotor, a lift-plus-cruise, and a tiltwing. To increase the breadth of vehicle technologies encapsulated in the fleet of NASA UAM reference vehicles, this paper establishes a tiltduct vehicle as an addition to the fleet. The fleet will continue to evolve as future analyses and trade studies are performed. The tiltduct UAM reference vehicle has six tilting ducted proprotors. This paper describes the initial configuration downselection; discusses ducted proprotor design rules of thumb as they applied to the conceptual design of the reference vehicle; describes the vehicle sizing, trade studies, and tuning of models performed; and finally, compares the resulting tiltduct vehicle against the other six-passenger NASA UAM reference vehicles. The high-level analyses performed for this study did not indicate significant differences in performance between the tiltduct and tiltwing reference vehicles, and so vehicle performance alone may not be a key driver in the selection of a tiltduct vehicle over a tiltwing vehicle. However, if ducts are found to have significant acoustical benefits, then acoustical priorities may provide a compelling reason to incorporate ducted proprotors. One significant limitation of the design presented in this paper is that the ducted proprotor performance was tuned based upon performance characteristics observed during historical tests with disk loadings (defined as thrust divided by proprotor disk area) of 125-250 lb/ft$^2$. The tiltduct vehicle designed in this study has a disk loading of 30 lb/ft$^2$, to be more representative of UAM vehicles; further studies to understand performance of ducted proprotors at representative disk loadings are warranted.

Tiltduct↗

Transonic flutter and gust-response tests and analyses of a wind-tunnel model of a torsion-free-wing fighter airplane

The paper reports the results of analytical and exploratory wind-tunnel studies of the transonic flutter and gust response characteristics of a 1/5.5-size complete-airplane version of a torsion-free-wing (TFW) fighter aircraft. The critical flutter mode for the TFW-free configuration was found to occur at M = 0.95 and had the rigid-TFW pitch mode as its apparent aerodynamic driver. However, the minimum dynamic flutter for the TFW-free case was only about 20% lower than for the TFW-locked; therefore the present TFW is a viable design concept with respect to flutter. The present TFW was not effective as a gust alleviator.

Ruhlin, C. L.↗

Electromagnetic Modeling of Wind tunnel Magnetic Suspension and Balance Systems

An analytical framework for the open-loop behavior of a permanent magnet element levitated within an applied magnetic field are shown, in the context of application to wind tunnel Magnetic Suspension and Balance Systems (MSBS). Various modes of motion are identified, which correlate with observed behavior of the NASA/ODU 6-inch MSBS. This system is being developed as a technology demonstrator for dynamic stability testing of atmospheric entry capsules, with possible application to a supersonic wind tunnel. The analytic equations are populated with field information from experimental measurements and a finite element model. Finally, a system simulation can provide alternative estimates of system dynamic behavior via model linearization, with preliminary comparisons presented. Taken together, the analytical framework, experimental measurement, finite element analysis, and dynamic simulation provide a complete understanding of the characteristics and behavior of the MSBS.

magnetic suspension↗

Estimating soil N 2 O emissions induced by organic and inorganic fertilizer inputs using a Tier-2, regression-based meta-analytic approach for U.S. agricultural lands

Consistent methods are essential for generating country and region-specific estimates of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions used for reporting and policymaking. The estimates of direct N 2 O emissions from U.S. agricultural soils have primarily relied on the use of emission factors (EFs, Tier-1) and process-based models (Tier-3). However, Tier-1 estimates are relatively crude while Tier-3 calculations can be costly. This work addressed this gap by developing a Tier-2, regression-based approach by leveraging a meta-database containing 1883 field N 2 O observations together with environmental and management covariates from 139 studies. Our results estimated higher monthly soil N 2 O emissions (N 2 O m , kg N/ha) during the growing season (0.38) than the fallow period (0.15), highlighting the importance of considering measurement periods when utilizing meta-databases for analyzing N 2 O drivers. Significantly different N 2 O m were found for tillage practices (conventional > no-till: 0.42 > 0.27), fertilizer type (liquid > solid manure: 0.55 > 0.32), and soil texture (fine > coarse: 0.36 > 0.22). The comparisons of the influence of crop type and rotation, water management, and soil order on N 2 O emissions are complicated by regional data availability and interactions among different factors. Additionally, the finding that N 2 O emissions reported based on area (N 2 O m ), N input rate (EF), or yield can alter treatment rankings underscores the need to establish transparent criteria for rewarding or discouraging regionally-based management practices using N 2 O metrics. Finally, we show how General Linear Models (GLMs) can be used to estimate country and regional Tier-2 N 2 O m using a suite of covariates. Our GLMs identified tillage, water management, N input type and rate, soil properties, and elevation as the most influential covariates for the conterminous U.S. The limited accuracy of regional-scale GLMs, however, suggests the need to further improve the quality and availability of GHG and covariate data through concerted efforts in data collection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Peanut allergy burden survey: Factors associated with health‐related quality of life in adolescents

Abstract Background Patients with peanut allergy (PA) experience significant burden of illness, which impacts health‐related quality of life (HRQoL), particularly in adolescence. There is a paucity of research evaluating drivers of HRQoL scores. Methods A prospective, online survey of adolescents with self‐reported, provider‐diagnosed PA completed from November 2018 to January 2019 was used to explore drivers of the real‐world impact of PA on HRQoL using the Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory 4.0 (PedsQL) and other measures. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to identify potential factors associated with PedsQL scores and to understand the level of association. Results A total of 102 adolescents were included. The final model included 10 variables: race, reported strict peanut avoidance, satisfaction with prophylaxis, moderate‐to‐severe reaction within the past 12 months, touching peanut as cause of most severe reaction, fear of reaction, age, gender, comorbidities, and daily life limitations. In total, three items were shown to be strong predictors of the PedsQL total score including cause of severe reaction was touching peanut (yes), level of agreement with avoiding peanut (completely agree), and satisfaction with prophylaxis (not very much/not at all). Conclusions There is substantial heterogeneity in the impact of the burden of PA on PedsQL scores across patients. This indicates the importance of shared and individualized decision making for PA management to optimize outcomes and improve HRQoL.

McCann, William A.↗

Predicting demand for hydrogen station fueling

Full function hydrogen stations are a reality; fuel cell electric vehicle drivers can pull up to commercial fueling stations and receive 3–5 kg in less than 5 min, for an approximately 300-mile range. The demand for hydrogen is increasing, driven by an increase in the fueling of public and private fuel cell vehicles. This study describes the development and value of a model that simulates stochastic future demand at a hydrogen filling station. The predictive hydrogen demand model described in this article is trained from mathematical models constructed from actual hydrogen fill count, amount, and frequency data. Future fill probabilities inform the hour-by-hour demand profile and the station state of either “available, ready to fill” or “available, filling”. For example, a prediction for a station generally dispensing 5,000 kg a week on a Friday afternoon at 4 p.m. is 16 fills, totaling 48.7 kg, with a 0.52 proportion of time spent in “available, filling” state yielding 31 min of filling time. This is a first-of-its kind, published study on predicting future hydrogen demand by the time of day (e.g., hour-by-hour intervals) and day of week. This study can be used for hydrogen station requirements and operation and maintenance strategies and to assess the impact of demand variations and scenarios. Finally, this article presents the current status of hydrogen demand, the model development methods, a set of sample results. Discussion and conclusions concentrate on the value and use of the proposed model.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Exploratory Investigation of Disengagements and Crashes in Autonomous Vehicles Under Mixed Traffic: An Endogenous Switching Regime Framework

Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) have a large potential to improve traffic safety but also pose some critical challenges. While AVs may help reduce crashes caused by human error, they still may experience failures of technologies and sensing, as well as decision-making errors in a mixed traffic environment. A disengagement refers to an AV transitioning control from autonomous systems to the trained test driver. The safety critical nature of disengagements makes it imperative to analyze disengagements and crashes together. In this study, we analyze both crashes and disengagements from real-world AV driving in California to fill the knowledge gap regarding the relationship between disengagements and crashes in a mixed traffic environment. A nested logit model was calibrated using three different outcomes: (1) disengagement with a crash, (2) disengagement with no crash, and (3) no disengagement with a crash. Furthermore, endogenous switching regime models were also calibrated to draw distinctions between the relation of disengagements and crashes while accounting for endogeneity effects. The results show that factors related to AV systems (such as software failures) and other roadway participants increase the propensity of a disengagement without a crash. Furthermore, AVs were observed to disengage less often as the technology matured over time. Marginal effects revealed an 8% decrease. The results thus suggest that disengagements are a part of AVs' safe performance and disengagement alerts may need to be triggered in order to avoid certain failures with current technology.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Estimating Fast Charging Infrastructure Requirements to Fully Electrify Ride-Hailing Fleets Across the United States

Ride-hailing electrification is made challenging by a variety of factors, including limited driver access to overnight charging and a nascent network of public direct-current fast charging (DCFC). This article projects the DCFC infrastructure needed to electrify ride-hailing across 384 cities in the United States. Research leveraging a novel infrastructure projection tool, Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Tool for On-Demand Mobility Services model (EVI-OnDemand), estimates that 25,400 DCFC ports capable of charging vehicles at a mean power of 150 kW are required to electrify 1.45 million ride-hailing vehicles in the baseline scenario. Results show that ride-hailing vehicles require 17.5 DCFC ports per 1000 vehicles, three times that of personal electric vehicles (EVs). Infrastructure demand is also shown to vary across cities; 63% more DCFC ports are needed to support 1000 battery EVs in Chicago versus Miami. The analysis also includes sensitivity studies that explore variation in charging demand across input assumptions, finding that charging power, vehicle class, overnight charging access rates, and port utilization influence the network size needed. Projections vary from 18,600 to 41,300 DCFC ports across sensitivity scenarios, indicating that ride-hailing electrification will require significant expansion of access to fast charging even in the most optimistic scenarios, and investments into supporting assets can reduce the scale of the public charging expansion needed.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

The Deep Soil Organic Carbon Response to Global Change

Over 70% of soil organic carbon (SOC) is stored at a depth greater than 20 cm belowground. A portion of this deep SOC actively cycles on annual to decadal timescales and is sensitive to global change. However, deep SOC responses to global change likely differ from surface SOC responses because biotic controls on SOC cycling become weaker as mineral controls predominate with depth. Here, we synthesize the current information on deep SOC responses to the global change drivers of warming, shifting precipitation, elevated CO 2 , and land use and land cover change. Most deep SOC responses can only be hypothesized because few global change studies measure deep soils, and even fewer global change experiments manipulate deep soils. We call on scientists to incorporate deep soils into their manipulations, measurements, and models so that the response of deep SOC can be accounted for in projections of nature-based climate solutions and terrestrial feedbacks to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Report on the Use and Function of the Integrated Operations Capability Analysis Platform (ICAP) and the LWRS Innovation Portal (IP)

The commercial nuclear power industry has achieved excellent safety and reliability performance but is struggling to survive in an electricity market that is increasingly dominated by subsidized renewables and cheap natural gas. These challenges have forced utilities to explore previously uncharted avenues to drastically reduce the operations and maintenance costs of their plants which are the primary drivers of the total cost to produce electricity. The petrochemical industry faced similar challenges some years ago as the costs of extraction and processing were rising while their reservoirs were being depleted along with a drop-in commodity prices that resulted in unsustainable operations. In this challenging climate, they developed a business model called Integrated Operations (IO) that sought to utilize technology to enable news ways of working through the integration of people, technology, process and governance changes. The Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program, working with IFE have developed an operating model via transferable learnings from the North Sea O&G industry. This framework is termed “Integrated Operations for Nuclear” (ION). ION is a transformation model that integrates the benefits and features of four principal factors: People, Technology, Process and Governance. The purpose of this report is to describe how to generate an ION business process analysis and utilize this information to reduce O&M costs. In order to make this job easier, DOE LWRS has created a suite of tools that will allow a person who is involved in a transformation effort at their company to build a solid documented business case for embarking on a major transformation effort. These tools, the Integrated Operations Capability Analysis Model (ICAP) and the LWRS Innovation Portal (IP) are described herein with instructions on their use. Instructions on how the interface with the EPRI Business Case Analysis Method (BCAM) are also provided.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Changing effects of external forcing on Atlantic–Pacific interactions

Recent studies have highlighted the increasingly dominant role of external forcing in driving Atlantic and Pacific Ocean variability during the second half of the 20th century. This paper provides insights into the underlying mechanisms driving interactions between modes of variability over the two basins. We define a set of possible drivers of these interactions and apply causal discovery to reanalysis data, two ensembles of pacemaker simulations where sea surface temperatures in either the tropical Pacific or the North Atlantic are nudged to observations, and a pre-industrial control run. We also utilize large-ensemble means of historical simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to quantify the effect of external forcing and improve the understanding of its impact. A causal analysis of the historical time series between 1950 and 2014 identifies a regime switch in the interactions between major modes of Atlantic and Pacific climate variability in both reanalysis and pacemaker simulations. A sliding window causal analysis reveals a decaying El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effect on the Atlantic as the North Atlantic fluctuates towards an anomalously warm state. The causal networks also demonstrate that external forcing contributed to strengthening the Atlantic's negative-sign effect on ENSO since the mid-1980s, where warming tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures induce a La Niña-like cooling in the equatorial Pacific during the following season through an intensification of the Pacific Walker circulation. The strengthening of this effect is not detected when the historical external forcing signal is removed in the Pacific pacemaker ensemble. The analysis of the pre-industrial control run supports the notion that the Atlantic and Pacific modes of natural climate variability exert contrasting impacts on each other even in the absence of anthropogenic forcing. The interactions are shown to be modulated by the (multi)decadal states of temperature anomalies of both basins with stronger connections when these states are “out of phase”. We show that causal discovery can detect previously documented connections and provides important potential for a deeper understanding of the mechanisms driving changes in regional and global climate variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Power electronic applications for Space Station Freedom

NASA plans to orbit a permanently manned space station in the late 1990s, which requires development and assembly of a photovoltaic (PV) power source system to supply up to 75 kW of electrical power average during the orbital period. The electrical power requirements are to be met by a combination of PV source, storage, and control elements for the sun and eclipse periods. The authors discuss the application of power electronics and controls to manage the generation, storage, and distribution of power to meet the station loads, as well as the computer models used for analysis and simulation of the PV power system. The requirements for power source integrated controls to adjust storage charge power during the insolation period current limiting, breaker interrupt current values, and the electrical fault protection approach are defined. Based on these requirements, operating concepts have been defined which then become drivers for specific system and element design.

Pickrell, Roy L.↗

Projecting exposure to extreme climate impact events across six event categories and three spatial scales

The extent and impact of climate‐related extreme events depend on the underlying meteorological, hydrological, or climatological drivers as well as on human factors such as land use or population density. Here we quantify the pure effect of historical and future climate change on the exposure of land and population to extreme climate impact events using an unprecedentedly large ensemble of harmonized climate impact simulations from the Inter‐Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b. Our results indicate that global warming has already more than doubled both the global land area and the global population annually exposed to all six categories of extreme events considered: river floods, tropical cyclones, crop failure, wildfires, droughts, and heatwaves. Global warming of 2°C relative to preindustrial conditions is projected to lead to a more than five‐fold increase in cross‐category aggregate exposure globally. Changes in exposure are unevenly distributed, with tropical and subtropical regions facing larger increases than higher latitudes. The largest increases in overall exposure are projected for the population of South Asia.

climate‐related extreme events↗