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At least 1,279 records · Page 71
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty Quantification via Stable Distribution Propagation

We propose a new approach for propagating stable probability distributions through neural networks. Our method is based on local linearization, which we show to be an optimal approximation in terms of total variation distance for the ReLU non-linearity. This allows propagating Gaussian and Cauchy input uncertainties through neural networks to quantify their output uncertainties. To demonstrate the utility of propagating distributions, we apply the proposed method to predicting calibrated confidence intervals and selective prediction on out-of-distribution data. The results demonstrate a broad applicability of propagating distributions and show the advantages of our method over other approaches such as moment matching.

Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Understanding processes that control dust spatial distributions with global climate models and satellite observations

Dust aerosol is important in modulating the climate system at local and global scales, yet its spatiotemporal distributions simulated by global climate models (GCMs) are highly uncertain. In this study, we evaluate the spatiotemporal variations of dust extinction profiles and dust optical depth (DOD) simulated by the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) and version 2 (CESM2), the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1), and the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2) against satellite retrievals from Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP), Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR). We find that CESM1, CESM2, and E3SMv1 underestimate dust transport to remote regions. E3SMv1 performs better than CESM1 and CESM2 in simulating dust transport and the northern hemispheric DOD due to its higher mass fraction of fine dust. CESM2 performs the worst in the Northern Hemisphere due to its lower dust emission than in the other two models but has a better dust simulation over the Southern Ocean due to the overestimation of dust emission in the Southern Hemisphere. DOD from MERRA-2 agrees well with CALIOP DOD in remote regions due to its higher mass fraction of fine dust and the assimilation of aerosol optical depth. The large disagreements in the dust extinction profiles and DOD among CALIOP, MODIS, and MISR retrievals make the model evaluation of dust spatial distributions challenging. Our study indicates the importance of representing dust emission, dry/wet deposition, and size distribution in GCMs in correctly simulating dust spatiotemporal distributions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predictions of the glass transition temperature and viscosity of organic aerosols from volatility distributions

Abstract. Volatility and viscosity are important properties of organic aerosols (OA), affecting aerosol processes such as formation, evolution, and partitioning of OA. Volatility distributions of ambient OA particles have often been measured, while viscosity measurements are scarce. We have previously developed a method to estimate the glass transition temperature (Tg) of an organic compound containing carbon, hydrogen, and oxygen. Based on analysis of over 2400 organic compounds including oxygenated organic compounds, as well as nitrogen- and sulfur-containing organic compounds, we extend this method to include nitrogen- and sulfur-containing compounds based on elemental composition. In addition, parameterizations are developed to predict Tg as a function of volatility and the atomic oxygen-to-carbon ratio based on a negative correlation between Tg and volatility. This prediction method of Tg is applied to ambient observations of volatility distributions at 11 field sites. The predicted Tg values of OA under dry conditions vary mainly from 290 to 339 K and the predicted viscosities are consistent with the results of ambient particle-phase-state measurements in the southeastern US and the Amazonian rain forest. Reducing the uncertainties in measured volatility distributions would improve predictions of viscosity, especially at low relative humidity. We also predict the Tg of OA components identified via positive matrix factorization of aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS) data. The predicted viscosity of oxidized OA is consistent with previously reported viscosity of secondary organic aerosols (SOA) derived from α-pinene, toluene, isoprene epoxydiol (IEPOX), and diesel fuel. Comparison of the predicted viscosity based on the observed volatility distributions with the viscosity simulated by a chemical transport model implies that missing low volatility compounds in a global model can lead to underestimation of OA viscosity at some sites. The relation between volatility and viscosity can be applied in the molecular corridor or volatility basis set approaches to improve OA simulations in chemical transport models by consideration of effects of particle viscosity in OA formation and evolution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Observationally constrained analysis on the distribution of fine- and coarse-mode nitrate in global models

Nitrate plays an important role in the Earth system and air quality. A key challenge in simulating the life cycle of nitrate aerosol in global models is to accurately represent mass size distribution of nitrate aerosol. In this study, we evaluate the performance of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) and the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2), along with Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom) phase III models, in simulating spatial distribution of fine-mode nitrate, the mass size distribution of fine- and coarse-mode nitrate, and the gas–aerosol partitioning between nitric acid gas and nitrate, using long-term ground-based observations and measurements from multiple aircraft campaigns. We find that most models underestimate the annual mean PM 2.5 (particulate matter with diameter less than 2.5 µm) nitrate surface concentration averaged over all sites. The observed nitrate PM 2.5 / PM 10 and PM 1 / PM 4 ratios are influenced by the relative contribution of fine sulfate or organic particles and coarse dust or sea salt particles. Overall, the ground-based observations give an annual mean surface nitrate PM 2.5 / PM 10 ratio of 0.7. Most models underestimate the annual mean PM 2.5 / PM 10 ratio in all regions. There are large spreads in the modeled nitrate PM 1 / PM 4 ratios, which span the full range from 0 to 1. Most models underestimate the surface molar ratio of nitrate to total inorganic nitrate averaged across all sites. Our study indicates the importance of gas–aerosol partition parameterization and the simulation of dust and sea salt in correctly simulating the mass size distribution of nitrate.

Nitrate↗
DOE OSTI2021

Effects of the large-scale circulation on temperature and water vapor distributions in the Π Chamber

Abstract. Microphysical processes are important for the development of clouds and thus Earth's climate. For example, turbulent fluctuations in the water vapor mixing ratio, r, and temperature, T, cause fluctuations in the saturation ratio, S. Because S is the driving factor in the condensational growth of droplets, fluctuations may broaden the cloud droplet size distribution due to individual droplets experiencing different growth rates. The small-scale turbulent fluctuations in the atmosphere that are relevant to cloud droplets are difficult to quantify through field measurements. We investigate these processes in the laboratory using Michigan Tech's Π Chamber. The Π Chamber utilizes Rayleigh–Bénard convection (RBC) to create the turbulent conditions inherent in clouds. In RBC it is common for a large-scale circulation (LSC) to form. As a consequence of the LSC, the temperature field of the chamber is not spatially uniform. In this paper, we characterize the LSC in the Π Chamber and show how it affects the shape of the distributions of r, T, and S. The LSC was found to follow a single roll with an updraft and downdraft along opposing walls of the chamber. Near the updraft (downdraft), the distributions of T and r were positively (negatively) skewed. At each measuring position, S consistently had a negatively skewed distribution, with the downdraft being the most negative.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Coordinating an operational data distribution network for CMIP6 data

The distribution of data contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) is via the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF). The ESGF is a network of internationally distributed sites that together work as a federated data archive. Data records from climate modelling institutes are published to the ESGF and then shared around the world. It is anticipated that CMIP6 will produce approximately 20 PB of data to be published and distributed via the ESGF. In addition to this large volume of data a number of value-added CMIP6 services are required to interact with the ESGF; for example the citation and errata services both interact with the ESGF but are not a core part of its infrastructure. With a number of interacting services and a large volume of data anticipated for CMIP6, the CMIP Data Node Operations Team (CDNOT) was formed. The CDNOT coordinated and implemented a series of CMIP6 preparation data challenges to test all the interacting components in the ESGF CMIP6 software ecosystem. This ensured that when CMIP6 data were released they could be reliably distributed.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Distributed optical fibre sensing in physical oceanography: emergence and future prospects

Distributed optical fibre sensing (DOFS) is a technology that enables continuous, real-time measurements of a range of environmental parameters along the length of a fibre optic cable. In this article, we review the recently emerged applications of DOFS techniques in physical oceanography and offer a perspective on the technology's potential for future growth within the field. The introduction of DOFS to physical oceanography is contextualised with a brief history of the technology, which spun off primarily from the use of seafloor-laid optical fibres for telecommunications purposes. The key components and underpinning physics of a DOFS system are outlined and, on their basis, the suite of variables that are observable with DOFS are discussed. The implementation factors of DOFS, which include trade-offs between measurement accuracy and spatio-temporal resolutions and ranges, are also examined. The physical oceanographic applications of DOFS to date are then illustrated with case examples of four distinct DOFS techniques: distributed temperature sensing (DTS), which can provide ocean temperature observations; distributed static strain sensing (DSS) and distributed acoustic sensing (DAS), which are sensitive to temperature, cable strain and strain-associated variables, such as pressure and ocean velocity; and ultra-long-range observations of ocean currents with optical interferometry. The forthcoming prospects of DOFS in physical oceanography are considered, and are proposed to include new fibre optic-based approaches to sense ocean salinity and measure through the water column. We conclude with reflections on the future role of DOFS within the Global Ocean Observing System, and highlight the opportunities provided by the existing world-wide network of seafloor-laid optical fibres.

Naveira Garabato, Alberto C. [Univ. of Southampton↗
DOE OSTI2022

Current and Projected Future Distribution of Plant Community Types for the Southern Seward Peninsula, Alaska

Landscape scale maps of plant community distribution at 5 m resolution were developed for southern Seward Peninsula. A Random Forest based environmental niche model was developed using topographic and climate data sets. Models were trained for the 2010-2019 period and applied to develop plant community distributions for contemporary (2010-2019) period. Trained model was applied to project the plant community distributions under future climate. Using downscaled projections for RCP8.5 scenario from five climate models (CCSM4, GFDL-CM3, GISS-E2-R, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MRI-CGCM3) and multi-model mean, a six member ensemble of plant community distribution were developed for current decade (2010-2019) and for future decades (2020-2029, 2030-2039, 2040-2049, 2050-2059). Contains *.tif and *.sh files. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

MSD CoP Webinar: Accounting for distributive justice in model-based decision support

Context: This webinar was hosted by the MultiSector Dynamics Community of Practice (MSD CoP; https://multisectordynamics.org). Abstract: Model-based analyses play an ever-increasing role in informing policy and decision-making. However, many large-scale societal challenges unavoidably involve questions about the fair distribution of positive and negative consequences. How are the costs of the energy transition distributed over households and businesses? How are flood risks redistributed under different flood risk management plans? How are the impacts of climate change and climate mitigation distributed over different parts of the world?These kinds of questions play an important role when deliberating public policy, and the lack, in many cases, of clear answers becomes an obstacle to decision-making. At recent COPs, for example, wicked questions about loss and damages and the phase-out versus phase-down of coal became obstacles to global climate action, illustrating the misalignment of the direction of scientific research and decision-makers' information needs. In this talk, I'll explore advances that are being made that enable analysts to start providing grounded model-based answers to questions of distributive justice, as well as argue that analysts should embrace and explicate the normative nature of their work instead of hiding behind the purported neutrality of science. Presenters: Dr. Jan Kwakkel (Delft University of Technology) Moderator(s): Rebecca Saari (MSD CoP Working Group Co-Chair; Univ. of Waterloo), Matt Sparks (Univ. of Waterloo); Sarah Fletcher (MSD CoP Working Group Co-Chair; Stanford University), Juan Moreno-Cruz (Univ. of Waterloo), Patrick Reed (MSD CoP Facilitation Team Member, Moderator and Organizer) This webinar was held on: November 13, 2024 from 1 PM - 2:15 PM ET

Kwakkel, Jan H.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Subsonic pressure distributions around a solid model of an inflatable decelerator attached to the base of an ogive-cylinder

A wind-tunnel investigation was conducted at free-stream Mach numbers from 0.20 to 1.00 and corresponding Reynolds numbers, based on maximum afterbody diameter, from 2.25 x one million to 6.90 x one million on a solid model of an attached inflatable decelerator (AID) connected to the base of an ogive-cylinder. Tests were conducted to obtain ram-air and surface pressure distributions about the AID. AID shapes derived for subsonic deployment are dependent on the pressure distributions used in their derivation, and the different shapes obtained are dependent on the Mach number for which the design is made. The resulting pressure distributions were used in a design program to obtain new shapes which were compared with the original pressure-distribution shape.

Sawyer, J. W.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Pitot-pressure distributions of the flow field of a delta-wing orbiter

Pitot pressure distributions of the flow field of a 0.0075-scale model of a typical delta wing shuttle orbiter are presented. Results are given for the windward and leeward sides on centerline in the angle-of-attack plane from wind tunnel tests conducted in air. Distributions are shown for three axial stations X/L = .35, .60, and .98 and for angles of attack from 0 to 60 deg. The tests were made at a Mach number of 7.4 and for Reynolds numbers based on body length from 1,500,000 to 9,000,000. The windward distributions at the two survey stations forward of the body boat tail demonstrate the compressive aspects of the flow from the shock wave to the body. Conversely, the distributions at the aft station display an expansion of the flow that is attributed to body boat tail. On the lee side, results are given at low angles of attack that illustrate the complicating aspects of the canopy on the flow field, while results are given to show the effects of flow separation at high angles of attack.

Cleary, J. W.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Applications of the theory of optimal control of distributed-parameter systems to structural optimization

An extension of classical methods of optimal control theory for systems described by ordinary differential equations to distributed-parameter systems described by partial differential equations is presented. An application is given involving the minimum-mass design of a simply-supported shear plate with a fixed fundamental frequency of vibration. An optimal plate thickness distribution in analytical form is found. The case of a minimum-mass design of an elastic sandwich plate whose fundamental frequency of free vibration is fixed. Under the most general conditions, the optimization problem reduces to the solution of two simultaneous partial differential equations involving the optimal thickness distribution and the modal displacement. One equation is the uniform energy distribution expression which was found by Ashley and McIntosh for the optimal design of one-dimensional structures with frequency constraints, and by Prager and Taylor for various design criteria in one and two dimensions. The second equation requires dynamic equilibrium at the preassigned vibration frequency.

Armand, J. P.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Ring current particle distributions during the magnetic storms of 16-18 December 1971

In an effort to summarize the constrasting development of the stormtime ring currents during the December 16-18, 1971 magnetic storms, maps were drawn indicating the proton energy density spatial/temporal distributions. The maps contain distributions for the 5 to 138 keV protons for each of seven orbits. The first storm was not characteristic of a single substorm nor a fully developed magnetic storm, but it was comprised of a sudden commencement, a positive phase, and multiple substorms producing a small depression in the magnetic field. The second storm was classical in development with a short two hour growth phase. Energy density distribution constrasts for the two storms show the second storm displayed three dominant features over the first storm. They were: (1) the intensities were 2 1/2 times larger, (2) the depths of penetration were 1/2 to 1 Reynolds number lower, and (3) the distribution became symmetric.

Smith, P. H.↗
NASA NTRS1971

Theoretical N2 vibrational distribution in an aurora.

The N2 vibrational distribution in an aurora is investigated. During the auroral bombardment, the vibrational distribution is non-Boltzmann. The deviation from the Boltzmann distribution increases with increasing altitude. Above 200 km, the loss rate of O(+) due to the reaction O(+) + N2 leading to NO(+) + N is increased by a factor of 1.5 when allowance is made for the non-Boltzmann character of the N2 distribution. This increased loss rate persists for 1000-2000 sec after auroral bombardment commences.

Schunk, R. W.↗
NASA NTRS1971

Frequency domain stability criteria for distributed nonlinear sampled-data systems.

Popov-type sufficient conditions are presented for the absolute stability of a class of closed loop sampled-data systems. The closed loop system consists of a linear distributed element, a feedback controller (linear or nonlinear), a sampler, and possibly a zero-order hold circuit. The distributed element is assumed to be finite Hankel transformable, and such that its dynamics can be represented by a transfer function which is the ratio of the multiple (Laplace and finite Hankel) transforms of output and input. The input is assumed to be distributed. The stability criterion presented here parallels the criterion for distributed systems that are finite Fourier transformable. An example is given to illustrate the applications of the stability criterion.

Nagarajan, N.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Effect of mass-addition distribution and injectant on heat transfer and transition criteria.

Surface pressures, heat-transfer rates, and transition locations for a sharp cone (whose semivertex angle is 12 deg) were obtained in a hypervelocity wind tunnel at a free-stream Mach number of 12 and a free-stream Re/ft range of 3,000,000 to 6,000,000. The effects of injecting either methane, nitrogen, or Freon-22 (at rates up to 2.1% of free-stream rate) were studied for a uniform injection-distribution and for a variable injection-distribution. Gaseous injection had little effect on the surface pressure measurements. For a given mass injection distribution, the laminar region heat-transfer decreases as the injection rate increases or as the molecular weight of the injectant decreases. For a given mass-injection rate (integrated over the surface of the entire cone), the transition location and heat-transfer rates were sensitive to the injection distribution. The transition Reynolds numbers were significantly greater when the local injection rate was constant over the surface of the cone.

Bertin, J. J.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Anisotropic pitch angle distribution of 50 eV to 50 keV particles at synchronous altitude.

At times, the electron pitch angle distributions at synchronous orbit have been observed to be highly anisotropic. In the local morning region, distributions concentrated near 90 deg are often observed in particles of less than approximately 2000 V. This anisotropy decreases with increasing energy from 1 keV to the detector's limit at 50 keV. The time development of anisotropy is consistent with production by pitch angle scattering processes which are not effective on electrons with small velocities parallel to the magnetic field. Another type of distribution has been observed with the low-energy (below 1000 V) electrons concentrated parallel and antiparallel to the magnetic field. These distributions are only seen in the dusk sector, but this may be an orbital artifact.

Deforest, S. E.↗
NASA NTRS1973

The angular distribution of ion flux around an ionospheric satellite.

Ion measurements from the Explorer 31 satellite were used to determine the angular distribution of ions around the satellite. The ion distributions were compared with the electron distributions measured on the same satellite. It is shown that the electron currents (fluxes) in the wake are always larger than the ion currents for a wide domain of plasma parameters. A quantitative comparison of the ion fluxes with a neutral approximation model for the angular distribution is considered. It is found that the ion fluxes become progressively larger than the corresponding computed neutral fluxes as the angle of attack increases from 0 to 180 deg.

Samir, U.↗