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At least 1,279 records · Page 71

Dual-season thermal energy storage-integrated heat pump system for load shifting: experiments, modeling and nationwide analysis

Here, this paper proposes and validates a dual-season thermal energy storage-integrated heat pump (TES-HP) system that shifts building electric load in both cooling and heating modes using a single phase-change TES. The design uses the TES as a heat sink for the condenser in summer and a heat source for the evaporator in winter, thereby reducing on-peak electric demand while ensuring compatible with existing air-distribution systems. A 14-kW TES-HP prototype with six operating modes and novel refrigerant charge management strategies was experimentally tested under varied conditions. Subsequently, data-driven polynomial performance curves were developed and validated against experiments, then coupled with a phase change material (PCM) model and a calibrated building model within a rule-based controller. Single-day case studies demonstrated effective on-peak demand reduction while maintaining thermal comfort. During cooling, hourly power was lowered by up to 1.5 kW; in heating, average hourly power decreased from over 3.5 kW to 1.8 kW, compared to an HP-only system, achieving 64.5 % load shifting, and the need for resistance heating was eliminated. Seasonal simulations showed typical on-peak electricity savings of 25–35 % in cooling and 40–65 % in heating, with the largest benefits on the hottest and coldest days. Extended response-surface analysis and nationwide mapping quantified load shifting as functions of ambient and TES temperatures, revealing a seasonal trade-off in TES phase-change temperature. These results demonstrate the TES-HP system as a practical and scalable solution for grid-interactive buildings that reduces on-peak demand and electricity use while maintaining thermal comfort and enhancing grid flexibility and reliability.

Grid-interactive buildings↗

Technology, technology, technology: An integrated assessment of deep decarbonization pathways for the Canadian oil sands

As a party to the Paris Agreement, Canada has an ambitious climate target of net-zero emissions by 2050. The country also holds the world's third largest oil reserves in the Alberta oil sands. Given increasing emissions from the oil sands sector, achieving Canada's net-zero target requires significant oil sands decarbonization. If, while phasing out fossil fuels, there is still a demand for Canadian oil sands, then the decarbonization of the resource production process becomes crucial. In this study, we use an enhanced version of the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) with a detailed unconventional oil sector for Canada, including mining and in situ resources. We ask, what is the future of the oil sands sector in deeply decarbonized global and Canadian economies? We address this question under four mitigation scenarios with varying global net-zero GHG emissions constraints, three additional representative lower carbon extraction technologies available for the oil sands sector, as well as global direct air capture (DAC) deployment. We find that lower carbon technology deployment allows a 20%–44% increase in oil sands production by 2050 for scenarios with net-zero GHG emissions in 2100 or 2075. DAC helps maintain oil sands production in the most ambitious global decarbonization scenario (net-zero GHG by 2050), without which low international oil demand makes Canadian oil sands production uncompetitive. Canadian oil sands production thus depends highly on the availability of lower carbon extraction technologies and international oil demand, which to a certain extent relies on the availability and global deployment of negative emissions technologies.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗

Industrial battery operation and utilization in the presence of electrical load uncertainty using Bayesian decision theory

Behind the meter battery storage is becoming increasing popular in all sectors, though enthusiasm has recently lagged in the industrial sector. Even though there may be many factors contributing to this including lack of innovation, prohibitive costs, and undesirable rate structures, a difficulty arises in accounting for uncertainty of electrical load in industrial facilities while still attempting to utilize battery storage as much as possible all while trying to achieve fiscal profitability. Here this study utilizes Gaussian process regression and Bayesian decision theory to organize load data and quantify electrical load uncertainty to properly and effectively discharge industrial battery storage. The study employs a simulation model to set battery load setpoints for the span of the utility billing period according to the degree of risk aversion. This combination of economic analysis according to utility billing period and utilization of degree of risk aversion to make decisions on the uncertainty of the data has not before been applied to battery storage. The method resulted in an annual average reduction of peak demand by 3.8 % at the lowest amount of savings and lowest risk aversion. The highest risk aversion resulted in an annual average reduction of peak demand of 7.5 %. The maximum reduction of peak load in any month was 13.8 % in the month of December with a relatively high risk aversion. With a the highest amount risk aversion tested, the model reduced demand ten of the twelve months of the year.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

The Peaking Potential of Long-Duration Energy Storage in the United States Power System

In this work, we investigated the peaking potential for storage with durations of 4 h up to durations of 168 h (1 week). The peaking potential for a given storage duration is the amount of storage that can be added to a power system before that storage can no longer serve the peak net demand period at full rated capacity. We found that for the United States, 168 h of storage would be sufficient to serve about 27 % of peak demand, or about 215 GW in the current system. However, more than one-half of this amount could be served by storage with 12 h or less of capacity. As deployment of wind and solar grows, the peaking potential increases significantly, and under decarbonization scenarios, approximately one-half of the peak demand could be served by storage of up to 168 h; but again, the majority of this storage could be with durations of up to 12 h. The potential is also driven by the mix of wind and solar, and by storage efficiency, with the deployment of solar having the largest impact for both storage peaking potential and the mix of durations.

capacity expansion↗

Performance analysis of hybrid power configurations: Impact on primary energy intensity, carbon dioxide emissions, and life cycle costs

In this work, utilization of Natural gas and Hydrogen to support current and future building energy needs to offset the total electric demand while improving the grid resiliency and energy efficiency was investigated. Demand side energy management will play an important role in efficiently managing the available energy resources. Performance assessment of different power generation and energy management configurations is presented in this paper. Development of solutions in addressing grid resiliency by providing the ability to design suitable configurations for meeting individual building energy needs is discussed. Primary movers (PM) such as internal combustion engines (ICE) and fuel cells (FC) along with small scale auxiliary renewable energy source such as photovoltaics (PV) were considered. Key attributes of total carbon foot-print, life cycle costs including capital and operational expenditure, electric grid offset or peak shaving capability, thermal energy availability and its further potential to offset total electric demand, and primary energy intensity are analyzed and discussed in detail.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Thermal performance and energy consumption validation of an occupied local government office building outfitted with ceiling tile phase change materials

Buildings present an opportunity for energy conservation and the modulation of peak energy demand through controlled Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) energy use. The administrative and office building stock in the United States holds potential to achieve energy and demand savings through retrofits such as insulation, weatherization, and thermal energy storage. Specifically, there is a need to validate passive phase change material (PCM) applications in full scale in aging administrative buildings in the US to evaluate the energy benefits. Aim of this study was to conduct a whole building level thermal and energy validation of an operational building and explore an alternative method for evaluating energy efficiency. To accomplish this, the study employed PCMs in the drop ceiling and carry out an energy audit and on-site measurement of HVAC systems' energy demand and consumption. A full-scale EnergyPlus energy model, modeled by the authors, served as a baseline for evaluation. The results show that calibrated model's envelope temperature measures fall within the accepted errors. HVAC energy simulation results also fall within the accepted errors for monthly and hourly pre- and post- PCM retrofit electricity and natural gas data. The novelty of this study is that it employees energy scales per Heating Degree Hour and Cooling Degree Hour, in contrast to the commonly used Heating Degree Days and Cooling Degree Days as reported in the literature to analyze energy savings. These findings underscore the pivotal role of a calibrated model in assessing the efficacy of a singular energy measure, like a PCM-retrofitted ceiling, in an occupied office building.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

An Ab initio based OH initiated oxidation kinetics of glycerol carbonate: A promising biofuel component

The global energy demand is steadily increasing because of the population explosion and economic growth. Fossil fuels supply around 85 % of global primary energy demand. On one hand, fulfilling the increasing energy demands is a big challenge for the next few decades. On the other hand, the continued burning of fossil fuels leads to higher CO2 emissions, severely impacting global warming. Therefore, the policymakers vow to shift from conventional fuels to renewable resources for economic, environmental, and future energy security reasons. In this context, biofuels from lignocellulosic biomass and/or carbon-neutral fuels produced in the sustainable carbon cycle can close the carbon cycle and reach net zero-carbon emission. Recently, glycerol carbonate has been proposed as a promising fuel or fuel additive for future sustainability. Therefore, we investigated the hydrogen abstraction reactions of glycerol carbonate (GC) by OH radicals using high-level ab initio and variational transition state theory calculations. We mapped out the potential energy surface using the CCSD(T)/cc-pV(D, T)Z//MP2/cc-pVTZ level of theory. Here we used the ab initio parameters to obtain the site-specific rate coefficients by employing the variational transition state theory. We observed that every hydrogen atom in GC displays a unique reactivity with OH radicals. We derived branching ratio of each channel that are difficult to access experimentally. The overall rate coefficients exhibit a strong non-Arrhenius behaviour, which can be represented as: $k^{CVT/SCT}_{ov}$ (T) = 3.39 x 10 -20 x T 2.659 x e$\frac{-750.0 Jmol^{-1}}{RT}$ $\frac{cm^{3}}{molecule s}$ This is the first reported rate data for the glycerol carbonate and OH radicals reaction.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Supply chain optimization of sustainable aviation fuel from carinata in the Southeastern United States

We report carinata is a purpose-grown oilseed feedstock for renewable fuels, including sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) that can replace conventional aviation fuel (CAF). Given carinata is a new crop in the Southeastern United States, it is crucial to analyze its sustainability from a supply chain perspective. This study developed a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model and simulated it for 20 years, starting from a farm (county-level data) and ending at the airport. About 2.06 million ha in Alabama, Florida, and Georgia combined were found suitable for carinata production. Given the three-year rotation period, about 0.69 million hectares can be cultivated annually, approximately 65% of which was in Georgia. About 2.4% of the combined SAF annual demand of four major airports (about 210 thousand t) in the study area is satisfied at that level of carinata cultivation. However, all available SAF was supplied to the Atlanta airport as this decision minimizes the supply chain cost. A total of 1343 storage units, one oil extraction mill, and one biorefinery were needed to meet the overall demand. We found that SW Georgia is the top supplier of carinata seeds. The unit cost of production and carbon intensity were estimated to be $\$$0.89 L -1 (or $\$$26.79 GJ -1 ) and 0.91 kg CO 2 e L -1 (or 27.28 kg CO 2 e GJ -1 ), respectively. This carbon intensity of carinata-based SAF was 67.8% lower than that of CAF. With variations included in SAF demand, yield, and soil carbon sequestration, carbon savings remained between 66.5% and 67.8%. Given the GHG advantage of SAF over CAF, there is justification for subsidies required to make SAF competitive.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗

Application of Intelligent Load Control to Manage Building Loads to Support Rapid Growth of Distributed Renewable Generation

Electricity utilities are faced with the mounting challenge of providing a stable supply of power to meet the growing demand while also integrating rapid growth in distributed variable renewable generation. Traditional means of balancing short- and long-term supply and demand imbalance will be expensive. Alternative approaches of using flexible loads in buildings are needed to mitigate the imbalance at a lower cost. This paper shows how the intelligent load control (ILC) process can be used to manage loads in buildings by dynamically prioritizing loads for curtailment using both quantitative and qualitative criteria. The ILC process can be deployed on low-cost computing platforms without the need for any additional sensing. ILC was first validated in a simulation environment to provide two grid service use cases: (1) managing monthly peak electricity demand and (2) managing buildings’ electricity consumption during a capacity bidding event. After being successfully tested in a simulation environment, ILC was deployed on real buildings to manage electricity consumption to provide two different use cases under different outdoor operating conditions. Both the simulation tests and the real building experiments were deployed using VOLTTRON™, a distributed sensing and control platform. The results from the tests and experiments showed that ILC was able to manage the controllable loads (heat pumps) in the building to maintain the electricity consumption at the desired level without a significant impact on occupant comfort. Overall, the results demonstrate that the ILC allows coordination of the controllable loads and provides a more intelligent means of load management than the traditional duty-cycling approach.

Kim, Woohyun↗

Energy, economic, and environmental tradeoffs at run-of-river hydropower facilities

Hydropower’s ability to quickly adapt to variability from wind and solar generation by fluctuation flow rates can allow the electricity grid to integrate more renewable capacity. However, these rapid flow fluctuations, required to meet variability needs, can negatively impact aquatic ecosystems. In this study, we quantified energy-economic-environment tradeoffs at five conventional hydropower facilities (i.e. hydropower produced ad a dam on a river channel) across the United States to identify a mix of operational regimes that can provide flexibility to support variable renewable energy integration and environmental protections. Model results show a range of ability to meet demand from 4.7% to 97.8% depending on which case study is considered. Additionally, when modeling the case study facilities on a range of RoR conditions, allowing a % of inflow as discharge, we found the range of 140–200% of inflow allowed as discharge lead to lowest environmental impact while meeting the highest amount of demand. Our sensitivity analysis results demonstrated the Richard-Baker Flashiness Index, used to measure flowrate changes, and Revenue, were negatively correlated with the percent of hydropower generation within the defined Regional Energy Deployment System balancing area (i.e. region in which energy demand and energy supply is balanced based on the Regional Energy Deployment System model) yet positively correlated to the variable renewable energy generation percentage in the defined balancing area. In conclusion, our results suggest hydropower operations can aid in increasing renewable energy generation while limiting environmental impacts when considering a holistic analysis of energy-economic-environment tradeoffs.

Economic impact↗

Accelerating room air conditioner efficiency in India: Grid, economic, and policy implications through 2035

India is poised for a rapid surge in space cooling demand, driven by rising incomes, urbanization, and intensifying heat. Between 2025 and 2035, the country is expected to add 130–150 million new room air conditioners (ACs). If Minimum Energy Performance Standards (MEPS) continue to improve at the historical rate of 2–3 % annually, room ACs alone could contribute over 180 GW to peak electricity demand by 2035-nearly 30 % of the projected national total. This study evaluates the impact of an accelerated MEPS trajectory, proposing to raise the 1-star threshold to ISEER 5.0 by 2027, ISEER 6.3 by 2030, and ISEER 7.4 by 2033. Drawing on engineering cost analysis, stock turnover modeling, and retail pricing data, we find that this pathway could reduce peak demand by over 60 GW, save 118 TWh of electricity annually, avoid 49 MtCO₂ of electricity-related emissions per year, avert ₹7.5 trillion (∼US$85 billion) in power system investments, and yield ₹0.7–2.3 trillion (∼US$8–26 billion) in net consumer savings by 2035. Contrary to affordability concerns, empirical trends show that higher efficiency does not increase AC prices. These results highlight the value of ambitious MEPS as a cost-effective strategy for improving grid reliability, reducing emissions, and advancing consumer welfare in emerging economies.

Abhyankar, Nikit↗

Redesigning large-scale multimodal transit networks with shared autonomous mobility services

Here, this study addresses a large-scale multimodal transit network design problem, with Shared Autonomous Mobility Services (SAMS) as both transit feeders and an origin-to-destination mode. The framework captures spatial demand and modal characteristics, considers intermodal transfers and express services, determines transit infrastructure investment and path flows, and generates transit routes. A system-optimal multimodal transit network is designed with minimum total door-to-door generalized costs of users and operators, satisfying transit origin-destination demand within a pre-set infrastructure budget. Firstly, the geography, demand, and modes in each zone are characterized with continuous approximation. The decisions of network link investment and multimodal path flows in zonal connection optimization are formulated as a minimum-cost multi-commodity network flow (MCNF) problem and solved efficiently with a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) solver. Subsequently, the route generation problem is solved by expanding the MCNF formulation to minimize intramodal transfers. The model is illustrated through a set of experiments with the Chicago network comprised of 50 zones and seven modes, under three scenarios. The computational results present savings in traveler journey time and operator cost demonstrating the potential benefits of collaboration between multimodal transit systems and SAMS.

Autonomous vehicles↗

Resilient NdFeB magnet recycling under the impacts of COVID-19 pandemic: Stochastic programming and Benders decomposition

Neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) magnets are the most powerful magnets per unit volume sold in the commercial market. Despite the increasing demand for clean energy applications such as electric vehicles and wind turbines, disruptive events including the COVID-19 pandemic have caused significant uncertainties in the supply and demand for NdFeB magnets. Therefore, this study aims to alleviate the risk of supply shortage for NdFeB magnets and the containing critical materials, rare-earth elements (REEs), through the development of a resilient reverse supply chain and logistics network design. We develop scenarios to model the unique impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the proposed business, incorporating both disruption intensity and recovery rate. We formulate a chance-constrained two-stage stochastic programming model to maximize the profit while guaranteeing the network resiliency against disruption risks. To solve the problem in large-scale instances, we develop an efficient Benders decomposition algorithm that reduces the computational time by 98.5% on average compared to the default CPLEX algorithm. When applied to the United States, the model suggests the optimal facility locations, processing capacities, inventory levels, and material flows for NdFeB magnet recyclers that could meet 99.7% of the demand. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to incorporate the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic to design a resilient NdFeB magnet recycling supply chain and logistics network, leveraging risk-averse stochastic programming.

42 ENGINEERING↗

PDG: A Composite Method Based on the Resolution of the Identity

The Gaussian-3 (G3) composite approach for thermochemical properties is revisited in light of the enhanced computational efficiency and reduced memory costs by applying the resolution-of-the-identity (RI) approximation for two-electron repulsion integrals (ERIs) to the computationally demanding component methods in the G3 model: the energy and gradient computations via the second-order Møller–Plesset perturbation theory (MP2) and the energy computations using the coupled-cluster singles–doubles method augmented with noniterative triples corrections [CCSD(T)]. Efficient implementation of the RI-based methods is achieved by employing a hybrid distributed/shared memory model based on MPI and OpenMP. The new variant of the G3 composite approach based on the RI approximation is termed the RI-G3 scheme, or alternatively the PDG method. The accuracy of the new RI-G3/PDG scheme is compared to the “standard” G3 composite approach that employs the memory-expensive four-center ERIs in the MP2 and CCSD(T) calculations. Taking the computation of the heats of formation of the closed-shell molecules in the G3/99 test set as a test case, it is demonstrated that the RI approximation introduces negligible changes to the mean absolute errors relative to the standard G3 model (less than 0.1 kcal/mol), while the standard deviations remain unaltered. Furthermore, the efficiency and memory requirements for the RI-MP2 and RI-CCSD(T) methods are compared to the standard MP2 and CCSD(T) approaches, respectively. The hybrid MPI/OpenMP-based RI-MP2 energy plus gradient computation is found to attain a 7.5× speedup over the standard MP2 calculations. For the most demanding CCSD(T) calculations, the application of the RI approximation is found to nearly halve the memory demand, confer about a 4–5× speedup for the CCSD iterations, and reduce the computational time for the compute-intensive triples correction step by several hours.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Reanalysis of Water Withdrawal for Irrigation, Electric Power, and Public Supply Sectors in the Conterminous United States, 1950–2016

Accurately measuring water use by the economy is essential for developing reliable models of water resource availability. Indeed, these models rely on retrospective analyses that provide insights into shifting human population demands and adaptions to water shortages. However, accurate, methodologically consistent, empirically authentic, and spatiotemporally comprehensive historical datasets for water withdrawals are scarce. Herein, we present a reanalysis of annual resolution (1950–2016) historical data set on irrigation, electric power, and public supply water withdrawal within the conterminous United States (US) at the county-level, and, for power plants, at the site-level. To estimate electric power water use, we synthesized a historically comprehensive list of generators and historic patterns in generation across fuels, prime movers, and cooling technologies. Irrigation water use estimation required building a crop-demand model that utilized historical information on irrigated acreage for crops and golf courses, stage-specific crop water demand, and climate information. To estimate public water supply use, we developed a random forest model constructed from information on population, infrastructure, climate, and land cover. These estimates generally agree with total county and state water use information provided by the US Geological Survey (USGS) water use circular and estimates generated from independent studies for specific years. However, we also observed discrepancies between our estimates and USGS data that appear to be caused by inconsistencies in the methods used by the USGS's primary data sources at the state level over decades of data collection, highlighting the importance of reanalysis to yield spatiotemporally consistent and intercomparable estimates of water use.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Assessing Adaptive Irrigation Impacts on Water Scarcity in Nonstationary Environments—A Multi‐Agent Reinforcement Learning Approach

Abstract One major challenge in water resource management is to balance the uncertain and nonstationary water demands and supplies caused by the changing anthropogenic and hydroclimate conditions. To address this issue, we developed a reinforcement learning agent‐based modeling (RL‐ABM) framework where agents (agriculture water users) are able to learn and adjust water demands based on their interactions with the water systems. The intelligent agents are created by a reinforcement learning algorithm adapted from the Q‐learning algorithm. We illustrated this framework in a case study where the RL‐ABM is two‐way coupled with the Colorado River Simulation System (CRSS), a long‐term planning model used for the administration of the Colorado River Basin, for assessing agriculture water uses impacts on water scarcity. Seventy‐eight intelligent agents are simulated, which can be grouped into three categories based on their parameter values: the “aggressive” (swift actions; low regrets), the “forward‐looking conservative” (mild actions; high regrets; fast learning), and the “myopic conservative” (mild actions; median regrets; slow learning). The ABM‐CRSS results showed that the major reservoirs in the Upper Colorado Basin might experience more frequent water shortages due to the increasing water uses compared to the original CRSS results. If the drought continues, the case study also demonstrates that agents can learn and adjust their demands.

Hung, Fengwei↗

Characterizing Hydrogen Storage Potential in U.S. Underground Gas Storage Facilities

Abstract Underground hydrogen storage is a long‐duration energy storage option for a low‐carbon economy. Although research into the technical feasibility of underground hydrogen storage is ongoing, existing underground gas storage (UGS) facilities are appealing candidates for the technology because of their ability to store and deliver natural gas. We estimate that UGS facilities in the United States (U.S.) can store 327 TWh (9.8 MMT) of pure hydrogen. A complete transition to hydrogen storage would reduce the collective working‐gas energy of UGS facilities by ∼75%; however, most (73.2%) UGS facilities could maintain current energy demand using a 20% hydrogen‐natural gas blend. U.S. UGS facilities can buffer 23.9%–44.6% of the high and low hydrogen demand projected for 2050, respectively, which exceeds the current percentage of natural gas demand buffered by storage. Thus, transitioning UGS infrastructure to hydrogen could substantially reduce the number of new hydrogen storage facilities needed to support a hydrogen economy.

08 HYDROGEN↗