Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “data driven modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,279 records · Page 71
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

HTESP (High-throughput electronic structure package): A package for high-throughput ab initio calculations

High-throughput ab initio calculations are the indispensable parts of data-driven discovery of new materials with desirable properties, as reflected in the establishment of several online material databases. The accumulation of extensive theoretical data through computations enables data-driven discovery by constructing machine learning and artificial intelligence models to predict novel compounds and forecast their properties. Efficient usage and extraction of data from these existing online material databases can accelerate the next stage materials discovery that targets different and more advanced properties, such as electron–phonon coupling for phonon-mediated superconductivity. However, extracting data from these databases, generating tailored input files for different ab initio calculations, performing such calculations, and analyzing new results can be demanding tasks. Here, in this work, we introduce a software package named “HTESP” (High-Throughput Electronic Structure Package) written in Python and Bash languages, which automates the entire workflow including data extraction, input file generation, calculation submission, result collection and plotting. Our HTESP will help speed up future computational materials discovery processes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data-driven prediction of α IIb β 3 integrin activation paths using manifold learning and deep generative modeling

The integrin heterodimer is a transmembrane protein critical for driving cellular process and is a therapeutic target in the treatment of multiple diseases linked to its malfunction. Activation of integrin involves conformational transitions between bent and extended states. Some of the conformations that are intermediate between bent and extended states of the heterodimer have been experimentally characterized, but the full activation pathways remain unresolved both experimentally due to their transient nature and computationally due to the challenges in simulating rare barrier crossing events in these large molecular systems. An understanding of the activation pathways can provide new fundamental understanding of the biophysical processes associated with the dynamic interconversions between bent and extended states and unveil new putative therapeutic targets. In this work, we apply nonlinear manifold learning to coarse-grained molecular dynamics simulations of bent, extended, and two intermediate states of αI I b β3 integrin to learn a low-dimensional embedding of the configurational phase space. We then train deep generative models to learn an inverse mapping between the low-dimensional embedding and high-dimensional molecular space and use these models to interpolate the molecular configurations constituting the activation pathways between the experimentally characterized states. Furthermore, this work furnishes plausible predictions of integrin activation pathways and reports a generic and transferable multi-scale technique to predict transition pathways for biomolecular systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data-Driven Transition Path Analysis Yields a Statistical Understanding of Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events in an Idealized Model

Abstract Atmospheric regime transitions are highly impactful as drivers of extreme weather events, but pose two formidable modeling challenges: predicting the next event (weather forecasting) and characterizing the statistics of events of a given severity (the risk climatology). Each event has a different duration and spatial structure, making it hard to define an objective “average event.” We argue here that transition path theory (TPT), a stochastic process framework, is an appropriate tool for the task. We demonstrate TPT’s capacities on a wave–mean flow model of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) developed by Holton and Mass, which is idealized enough for transparent TPT analysis but complex enough to demonstrate computational scalability. Whereas a recent article (Finkel et al. 2021) studied near-term SSW predictability, the present article uses TPT to link predictability to long-term SSW frequency. This requires not only forecasting forward in time from an initial condition, but also backward in time to assess the probability of the initial conditions themselves. TPT enables one to condition the dynamics on the regime transition occurring, and thus visualize its physical drivers with a vector field called the reactive current . The reactive current shows that before an SSW, dissipation and stochastic forcing drive a slow decay of vortex strength at lower altitudes. The response of upper-level winds is late and sudden, occurring only after the transition is almost complete from a probabilistic point of view. This case study demonstrates that TPT quantities, visualized in a space of physically meaningful variables, can help one understand the dynamics of regime transitions.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2021

A New Modeling Framework for Geothermal Operational Optimization with Machine Learning (GOOML)

Geothermal power plants are excellent resources for providing low carbon electricity generation with high reliability. However, many geothermal power plants could realize significant improvements in operational efficiency from the application of improved modeling software. Increased integration of digital twins into geothermal operations will not only enable engineers to better understand the complex interplay of components in larger systems but will also enable enhanced exploration of the operational space with the recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) tools. Such innovations in geothermal operational analysis have been deterred by several challenges, most notably, the challenge in applying idealized thermodynamic models to imperfect as-built systems with constant degradation of nominal performance. This paper presents GOOML: a new framework for Geothermal Operational Optimization with Machine Learning. By taking a hybrid data-driven thermodynamics approach, GOOML is able to accurately model the real-world performance characteristics of as-built geothermal systems. Further, GOOML can be readily integrated into the larger AI and ML ecosystem for true state-of-the-art optimization. This modeling framework has already been applied to several geothermal power plants and has provided reasonably accurate results in all cases. Therefore, we expect that the GOOML framework can be applied to any geothermal power plant around the world.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Interactive Framework to Support Open Model-Data Validation Efforts at the CCMC

Validation of models using observation data has been a central activity at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) over more than a decade. The Comprehensive Assessment of Models and Events using Library Tools (CAMEL) framework is a database-driven implementation of the interactive analysis of model-data comparisons that simultaneously provides a view across a multitude of locations and time periods. CAMEL thus extends the single-location or single-trajectory timeseries data comparison capabilities provided by the CCMC online visualization that formed the backbone of initial validation efforts. We demonstrate CAMEL capabilities for an example application to study Neutral Density in the upper atmosphere among comparisons in the heliosphere, the Earth’s radiation belt, magnetosphere, and ionosphere-thermosphere-mesosphere domains.

Lutz Rastaetter↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multiscale Data-Driven Seismic Full-Waveform Inversion With Field Data Study

Seismic full-waveform inversion (FWI), which uses iterative methods to estimate high-resolution subsurface models from seismograms, is a powerful imaging technique in exploration geophysics. In recent years, the computational cost of FWI has grown exponentially due to the increasing size and resolution of seismic data. Moreover, it is a nonconvex problem and can encounter local minima due to the limited accuracy of the initial velocity models or the absence of low frequencies in the measurements. To overcome these computational issues, we develop a multiscale data-driven FWI method based on fully convolutional networks (FCNs). In preparing the training data, we first develop a real-time style transform method to create a large set of synthetic subsurface velocity models from natural images. We then develop two convolutional neural networks with encoder-decoder structures to reconstruct the low- and high-frequency components of the subsurface velocity models, separately. To validate the performance of our data-driven inversion method and the effectiveness of the synthesized training set, we compare it with conventional physics-based waveform inversion approaches using both synthetic and field data. Finally, these numerical results demonstrate that, once our model is fully trained, it can significantly reduce the computation time and yield more accurate subsurface velocity models in comparison with conventional FWI.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Deducing subnanometer cluster size and shape distributions of heterogeneous supported catalysts

Abstract Infrared (IR) spectra of adsorbate vibrational modes are sensitive to adsorbate/metal interactions, accurate, and easily obtainable in-situ or operando. While they are the gold standards for characterizing single-crystals and large nanoparticles, analogous spectra for highly dispersed heterogeneous catalysts consisting of single-atoms and ultra-small clusters are lacking. Here, we combine data-based approaches with physics-driven surrogate models to generate synthetic IR spectra from first-principles. We bypass the vast combinatorial space of clusters by determining viable, low-energy structures using machine-learned Hamiltonians, genetic algorithm optimization, and grand canonical Monte Carlo calculations. We obtain first-principles vibrations on this tractable ensemble and generate single-cluster primary spectra analogous to pure component gas-phase IR spectra. With such spectra as standards, we predict cluster size distributions from computational and experimental data, demonstrated in the case of CO adsorption on Pd/CeO 2 (111) catalysts, and quantify uncertainty using Bayesian Inference. We discuss extensions for characterizing complex materials towards closing the materials gap.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2021

Predicting Arrival and Departure Runway Assignments with Machine Learning

Runway assignments at major airports are made by air traffic controllers subject to various constraints, and to achieve various objectives. In this research, we describe our efforts training machine learning (ML) models to predict both departure and arrival runway assignments using an entirely data-driven approach. This approach is compared to existing rule-based approaches developed in previous research using input from Subject Matter Experts. The models have features derived from various FAA data feeds, and leverage multiple machine learning algorithms. Results for models trained for nine major U.S. airports are described and compared to one another across various important dimensions. Particular attention was paid to developing a repeatable framework for training these models so the approach could be scaled to other airports, and to developing models that are useful in a real-time environment. In addition, the models were designed to be functional in a real-time environment to support NASA’s ATD-2 project, as part of an ML-powered shadow system to compare against the performance of the fielded system.

machine learning↗
NASA NTRS2021

Predicting Arrival and Departure Runway Assignments with Machine Learning

Runway assignments at major airports are made by air traffic controllers subject to various constraints, and to achieve various objectives. In this research, we describe our efforts training machine learning (ML) models to predict both departure and arrival runway assignments using an entirely data-driven approach. This approach is compared to existing rule-based approaches developed in previous research using input from Subject Matter Experts. The models have features derived from various FAA data feeds, and leverage multiple machine learning algorithms. Results for models trained for nine major U.S. airports are described and compared to one another across various important dimensions. Particular attention was paid to developing a repeatable framework for training these models so the approach could be scaled to other airports, and to developing models that are useful in a real-time environment. In addition, the models were designed to be functional in a real-time environment to support NASA’s ATD-2 project, as part of an ML-powered shadow system to compare against the performance of the fielded system.

machine learning↗
NASA NTRS1996

Nonlinear ARMA models for the D(st) index and their physical interpretation

Time series models successfully reproduce or predict geomagnetic activity indices from solar wind parameters. A method is presented that converts a type of nonlinear filter, the nonlinear Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model to the nonlinear damped oscillator physical model. The oscillator parameters, the growth and decay, the oscillation frequencies and the coupling strength to the input are derived from the filter coefficients. Mathematical methods are derived to obtain unique and consistent filter coefficients while keeping the prediction error low. These methods are applied to an oscillator model for the Dst geomagnetic index driven by the solar wind input. A data set is examined in two ways: the model parameters are calculated as averages over short time intervals, and a nonlinear ARMA model is calculated and the model parameters are derived as a function of the phase space.

Vassiliadis, D.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Integration and Demonstration of Monitoring, Modeling, and Prediction of DV-1 Amendment Performance at the Bench Scale: DV-1 Amendment Demonstration

During fiscal years 2024 and 2025, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Hanford Field Office commissioned Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to conduct applied research aimed at reducing the cost, time, and uncertainty associated with in situ treatment of vadose zone contaminants at the Hanford Site. This report outlines the integration of three key research efforts into a meso-scale demonstration designed to advance field-scale solutions that aim to (1) optimize the delivery of chemical amendments to contaminated soils, (2) reduce uncertainty in amendment delivery performance assessment using advanced monitoring techniques, and (3) provide real-time insights into when and where amendment-induced precipitation reactions occur in the subsurface. To achieve these objectives, the tank-scale (~ 1 cubic meter) Geophysical Imaging of Flow and Transport (GIFT) system was developed. GIFT enables experimental testing of amendment delivery while incorporating automated multi-modal monitoring approaches, including pressure measurements, direct fluid sampling, and remote time-lapse geophysical imaging. The data generated from these monitoring techniques will serve as inputs for a generative artificial-intelligence-driven digital twin – a numerical simulation model designed to honor observed data while quantifying uncertainty in simulation accuracy. Using this simulator, researchers will refine an amendment injection strategy to maximize delivery efficiency within a low-permeability soil zone. Monitoring data will be interpreted through simulated outputs to enhance understanding of the injection process. The efficacy of this integrated approach will be evaluated through direct sampling at the conclusion of the experiment.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2026

Protection of Inverter-Dependent Transmission Systems (PROTECT-IT)

This presentation highlights the overall objectives of the SETO funded protection project. The main technical approaches are also highlighted. This high impact project produces multiple innovative outcomes, including comprehensive impact study of how IBR affects protection elements, simplified low-order IBR model for protection engineers, enhanced and data-driven protection design, co-design concept for coordination protection and IBRs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Simulation of Hurricane Harvey flood event through coupled hydrologic-hydraulic models: Challenges and next steps

Using the 2017 Hurricane Harvey flood event as a test case, this study set up a series of sensitivity analyses to highlight three challenges associated with large-scale flood inundation modeling, including (a) model parameterization, (b) errors in digital elevation models, and (c) effects of reservoir retention. Driven by radar-based hourly rainfall data, a series of hydrologic-hydraulic models including the VIC hydrologic model, RAPID routing model, and Flood2D-GPU hydrodynamic model are set up over Harris County, Texas, to simulate flood inundation and hazards. The results demonstrate the importance of hydrologic parameters in improving flood modeling. For a large flood event such as Hurricane Harvey, the effect of the initial water depths is insignificant. The Manning's n values may increase the peak water depth by ~1%, the flood extents by 65km 2 , and the high danger zone by ~6%. On the contrary, the bathymetry correction factors may reduce the flood extent by ~1.4% and the high-danger zone by ~4%. Reducing the reservoir storage capacity to 1% may increase the flood extent by ~4% and the high-danger zone by ~17%. This study may provide supporting information to guide and prioritize the development of future high-performance computing hydrodynamic large-scale flood simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Encoding nonlinear and unsteady aerodynamics of limit cycle oscillations using nonlinear sparse Bayesian learning

This article investigates the applicability of a recently proposed, nonlinear sparse Bayesian learning (NSBL) algorithm to identify and estimate the complex aerodynamics of limit cycle oscillations. NSBL provides a semi-analytical framework for determining the data-optimal sparse model nested within a (potentially) over-parameterized model. This is particularly relevant to nonlinear dynamical systems where modelling approaches involve the use of physics-based and data-driven components. In such cases, the data-driven components, where analytical descriptions of the physical processes are not readily available, are often prone to overfitting, meaning that the empirical aspects of these models will often involve the calibration of an unnecessarily large number of parameters. While an overparameterized model may fit the observed data well, such models may be inadequate for making predictions in regimes that are different from those wherein the data were recorded. In view of this, it is desirable to not only calibrate the model parameters, but also identify the optimal compromise between data fit and model complexity. In this article, we exhibit the optimal model discovery for an aeroelastic system wherein the structural dynamics are well-known and described by a differential equation model, coupled with a semi-empirical aerodynamic model for laminar separation flutter, resulting in low-amplitude limit cycle oscillations (LCO). To illustrate the performance of the algorithm, in this article, we use synthetic data and demonstrate the ability of the algorithm to correctly rediscover the optimal model and model parameters, given a known data-generating model. The synthetic data are generated from a forward simulation of a known differential equation model with parameters selected so as to mimic the dynamics observed in wind-tunnel experiments. Subsequently, we demonstrate the performance of the algorithm for model selection using noisy LCO data from wind tunnel experiments. As there is no ground truth available for the experimental data case, we provide a comparison between NSBL and Bayesian model selection to validate the results, and demonstrate the use of NSBL as an efficient alternative to traditional methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Model Tree Generator (MTG) Framework for Simulating Hydrologic Systems: Application to Reservoir Routing

Data-driven algorithms have been widely used as effective tools to mimic hydrologic systems. Unlike black-box models, decision tree algorithms offer transparent representations of systems and reveal useful information about the underlying process. A popular class of decision tree models is model tree (MT), which is designed for predicting continuous variables. Most MT algorithms employ an exhaustive search mechanism and a pre-defined splitting criterion to generate a piecewise linear model. However, this approach is computationally intensive, and the selection of the splitting criterion can significantly affect the performance of the generated model. These drawbacks can limit the application of MTs to large datasets. To overcome these shortcomings, a new flexible Model Tree Generator (MTG) framework is introduced here. MTG is equipped with several modules to provide a flexible, efficient, and effective tool for generating MTs. The application of the algorithm is demonstrated through simulation of controlled discharge from several reservoirs across the Contiguous United States (CONUS).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Terrestrial Biosphere Model Farm

Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) are fundamental to our understanding of how the land surface responds to changes in climate. However, MIPs are challenging to conduct, requiring the organization of multiple, decentralized modeling teams throughout the world running common protocols. We explored centralizing these models on a single supercomputing system. We ran nine offline terrestrial biosphere models through the Terrestrial Biosphere Model Farm: CABLE, CENTURY, HyLand, ISAM, JULES, LPJ-GUESS, ORCHIDEE, SiB-3, and SiB-CASA. All models were wrapped in a software framework driven with common forcing data, spin-up, and run protocols specified by the Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP) for years 1901–2100. We ran more than a dozen model experiments. We identify three major benefits and three major challenges. The benefits include: (a) processing multiple models through a MIP is relatively straightforward, (b) MIP protocols are run consistently across models, which may reduce some model output variability, and (c) unique multimodel experiments can provide novel output for analysis. The challenges are: (a) technological demand is large, particularly for data and output storage and transfer; (b) model versions lag those from the core model development teams; and (c) there is still a need for intellectual input from the core model development teams for insight into model results. A merger with the open-source, cloud-based Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn) ecoinformatics system may be a path forward to overcoming these challenges.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗