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DOE OSTI2025

PSA 2025 DPRA for Cyber Optimization

Cyberattacks can have many different attack paths, durations, and goals. There are also many different mitigation options involving hardware, software, and/or humans. Evaluating defense options should include quantitative evaluation of overall effectiveness to make cost and risk-informed decisions. Typical cyberattack modeling methods only provide a qualitative evaluation and have difficulty with time dependent scenarios. The main areas of cybersecurity are confidentiality, integrity, and availability. For companies with cyber-physical systems such as advanced nuclear reactors, cyber-related integrity is a requirement set by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. But companies are also concerned about availability or reliability as a business case. As cyber threats are evolving to a business-for-hire structure, more attacks focus on disrupting business success and reliability, causing financial and economic stability risk. Companies want reliability analysis while optimizing cost, which requires more than safety modeling methods. Dynamic-state-based and Markov-based modeling provides a method for better cyber scenario modeling with timing and conditional features not found in other numerical evaluation methods. EMRALD (Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Lined Diagrams) is a dynamic risk analysis modeling and simulation tool and has features that reduce modeling issues such as state-base explosion found in Markov-based tools. It has been used to model different time-dependent events including plant behavior and operator procedures. As a general modeling tool, EMRALD can also be used to model cyberattack scenarios with varying mitigation options and quantify effectiveness, producing numerical data for risk-informed decisions. This paper uses EMRALD to demonstrate that dynamic risk analysis can be used for cyber threat modeling to provide insights for design decision-making and optimize defense strategies.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Cost of Capturing CO 2 from Industrial Sources

This systems analysis by the National Energy Technology Laboratory's Strategic Systems Analysis and Engineering directorate) evaluates the cost and performance impacts of capturing CO 2 emissions from nine industrial sources (ammonia, ethylene oxide, and ethanol production, natural gas process, coal- and gas-to-liquids, refinery hydrogen production, iron and steel, and cement manufacturing). The industrial sectors examined are segregated according to the CO 2 purity level of the flue gas stream, prior to treatment. Certain sectors naturally produce a gas stream that is inherently high in CO 2 purity, and these sectors can achieve 99-100% removal. Other sectors produce a lower purity CO 2 flue gas stream and achieving 90-99% removal requires deeper levels of treatment, adding cost. In addition to the report that documents the analysis, a Carbon Capture Retrofit Database tool was also created that allows users to apply CO 2 capture to selected industries, to evaluate the cost of capture and compare across multiple plants, as well as across different industries. Users have the ability to change select input parameters (such as fuel price, capture rate, and financing assumptions) to evaluate the impact on industrial CO 2 capture economics.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Quantum Simulation of the First-Quantized Pauli-Fierz Hamiltonian

We provide an explicit recursive divide-and-conquer approach for simulating quantum dynamics and derive a discrete first-quantized nonrelativistic QED Hamiltonian based on the many-particle Pauli-Fierz Hamiltonian. We apply this recursive divide-and-conquer algorithm to this Hamiltonian and compare it to a concrete simulation algorithm that uses qubitization. Our divide-and-conquer algorithm, using lowest-order Trotterization, scales for fixed grid spacing as O ~ ( Λ N 2 η 2 t 2 / ϵ ) for grid size N , η particles, simulation time t , field cutoff Λ , and error ϵ . Our qubitization algorithm scales as O ~ ( N ( η + N ) ( η + Λ 2 ) t log ( 1 / ϵ ) ) . This shows that even a naive partitioning and low-order splitting formula can yield, through our divide-and-conquer formalism, superior scaling to qubitization for large Λ . We compare the relative costs of these two algorithms on systems that are relevant for applications such as the spontaneous emission of photons and the photoionization of electrons. We observe that for different parameter regimes, one method can be favored over the other. Finally, we give new algorithmic and circuit-level techniques for gate optimization, including a new way of implementing a group of multicontrolled- X gates that can be used for better analysis of circuit cost. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Mukhopadhyay, Priyanka (ORCID:0000000164639100)↗

NASA NTRS1980

Landsat imagery for hydrologic modeling

The cost and effectiveness of developing land cover information derived from Landsat imagery for hydrologic studies are compared with the cost and effectiveness of conventional sources. The analysis shows that the conventional and Landsat methods are nearly equally effective in providing adequate land cover data for hydrologic studies. The total cost effectiveness analysis demonstrates that the conventional method is cost effective for a study area of less than 26 sq km and that the Landsat method is to be preferred for areas of more than 26 sq km.

Taylor, R. S.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Preliminary design of an advanced Stirling system for terrestrial solar energy conversion

A preliminary design was generated for an advanced Stirling conversion system (ASCS) that will be capable of delivering about 25 kW of electric power to an electric utility grid. Stirling engines are being evaluated for terrestrial solar applications. A two-year task to complete detailed design, fabrication, assembly and testing of an ASCS prototype began in April, 1990. The ASCS is designed to deliver maximum power per year over a range of solar inputs with a design life of 30 years (60,000 h). The ACSC has a long-term cost goal of about $450 per kilowatt, exclusive of the 11-m parabolic dish concentrator. The proposed system includes a Stirling engine with high-pressure hydraulic output, coupled with a bent axis variable displacement hydraulic motor and a rotary induction generator. The major thrusts of the preliminary design are described, including material selection for the hot-end components, heat transport system (reflux pool boiler) design, system thermal response, improved manufacturability, FMECA/FTA analysis, updated manufacturing cost estimate, and predicted system performance.

White, M. A.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Lessons Learned--MO&DA at JPL

The basic questions addressed in this paper are how to avoid future surprise growth in Mission Operations and Data Analysis (MO&DA) costs, and how to minimize total MO&DA costs for planetary missions. The context of this paper and its conclusions is in the arena of JPL mission operations support. The fundamental conclusion is that there is no simple, single solution: the entire Project life-cycle must be addressed.

MO&DA↗

DOE OSTI2026

Image processing pipeline for AI-driven nanoparticle megalibrary characterization

Recent innovations have made it possible to produce megalibraries, millions of structurally and compositionally distinct nanoparticles on a chip. These megalibraries yield vast volumes of data that are impossible to analyze manually, necessitating the development of automated tools. In previous work, we created a binary classification machine learning model to select quality nanoparticle images for downstream analysis. In this work, we show that adding a custom image processing step before training can produce significantly higher-performing models in a fraction of the time and make them more robust to different image noise levels and microscope acquisition settings. The image processing pipeline proposed here effectively cleans raw nanoparticle images, enhances key features, and allows us to use much lower resolution images and simpler neural network model architectures. These features result in higher performance and significant cost savings. Experiments demonstrate superior performance relative to baseline, including an 18.2% improvement in recall and a 13.1% increase in accuracy. Given the high cost of downstream analysis, it is critical to minimize false positives, and our best-performing model reaches a precision of 95.9% and a weighted F-score of 95.1% on an unseen test set. Additionally, model training time is reduced from hours to less than a minute. We also show that, using this custom image processing pipeline, model performance is significantly improved at lower pixel resolutions compared to downsizing alone. We expect that adopting this pipeline for AI-driven automated nanoparticle characterization will allow researchers to rapidly and accurately analyze much greater volumes of data, thereby accelerating materials discovery.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Technoeconomic Analysis of Novel PV Plant Designs for Extreme Cost Reductions

This project sought to gain a deeper understanding of the cost and performance of future solar photovoltaic (PV) plant components, including bifacial PV modules, tandem PV modules, increased plant voltage architectures, and module-level power electronics, and how they may be integrated into new PV plant designs to significantly reduce the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of PV. This was done through extensive modeling of current PV plants and future technologies in three different locations, informed by a comprehensive literature review and informational interviews to develop performance and cost assumptions for these technologies. Sensitivities were conducted to understand tradeoffs between different design options, such as the added energy from increasing row spacing versus additional land costs. An optimization tool was then created utilizing an evolutionary algorithm to determine an optimal PV plant configuration for a given set of technologies that resulted in minimized plant LCOE based upon typical performance and cost inputs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2003

Probabilistic Analysis of Solid Oxide Fuel Cell Based Hybrid Gas Turbine System

The emergence of fuel cell systems and hybrid fuel cell systems requires the evolution of analysis strategies for evaluating thermodynamic performance. A gas turbine thermodynamic cycle integrated with a fuel cell was computationally simulated and probabilistically evaluated in view of the several uncertainties in the thermodynamic performance parameters. Cumulative distribution functions and sensitivity factors were computed for the overall thermal efficiency and net specific power output due to the uncertainties in the thermodynamic random variables. These results can be used to quickly identify the most critical design variables in order to optimize the design and make it cost effective. The analysis leads to the selection of criteria for gas turbine performance.

Gorla, Rama S. R.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Analyzing the upscaling potential and geospatial siting of calcination-free calcium hydroxide production in the United States

This study evaluates the techno-economic feasibility and the embodied carbon dioxide intensity (eCI) of a novel process for producing nominally pure (>95 mass %) calcium hydroxide without the need for the thermal calcination of limestone. The process relies on the aqueous extraction of calcium from alkaline industrial wastes following which portlandite (Ca(OH) 2 : CH, a.k.a. slaked lime or hydrated lime) is precipitated by application of a waste-heat based thermal swing. This approach takes advantage of the temperature dependent solubility of CH at ambient pressure. We evaluated the feasibility of implementing this process in the U.S. based on the geospatial availability of waste heat and slags as a Ca-source. For the base case, the cost of production of “Low-Temperature Portlandite (LTP)” is 2-to-3 times that of traditional portlandite (~$180/tonne). The main driver of cost is the electricity demand for reverse osmosis (RO) which is used to concentrate Ca-ions in solution, and the costs of membrane replacement. Our sensitivity analysis showed that parity with the cost of production of traditional portlandite is readily achievable by selecting membranes with better durability (i.e., better pH resistance) and flux (i.e., higher permeability) without sacrificing selectivity. Significantly, LTP features an eCI that is between 40%- and - 80 % lower than its traditional counterpart when electricity is sourced from natural gas combustion or wind power, respectively. Finally, our geospatial analysis reveals that there are three areas in the U.S. with the potential for implementation of industrial-scale facilities that could produce at least 50 tonnes of pure Ca(OH) 2 per day, while achieving a production cost of ~$270 per tonne of Ca(OH) 2 , owing to the proximity between slag feedstocks and waste heat sources.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Reliability-Informed Economic and Energy Evaluation for Design for Remanufacturing: A Case Study on a Hydraulic Manifold

Design for Remanufacturing (DfRem) is an attractive approach for sustainable product development. Evaluation of DfRem strategies, from both economic and environmental perspectives, at an early design stage can allow the designers to make informed decisions when choosing the best design option. Studying the long-term implications of a particular design scenario requires quantifying the benefits of remanufacturing for multiple life cycles while considering the reliability of the product. In addition to comparing designs on a one-to-one basis, we find that including reliability provides a different insight into comparing design strategies. We present a reliability-informed cost and energy analysis framework that accounts for product reliability for multiple remanufacturing cycles within a certain warranty policy. The variation of reuse rate over successive remanufacturing cycles is formulated using a branched power-law model which provides probabilistic scenarios of reusing or replacing with new units. To demonstrate the utility of this framework, we use the case study of a hydraulic manifold, which is a component of a transmission used in some agricultural equipment, and use real-world field reliability data to quantify the transmission’s reliability. Three design improvement changes are proposed for the manifold and we quantify the costs and energy consumption associated with each of the design changes for multiple remanufacturing cycles.

design for remanufacturing↗

DOE OSTI2025

Decarbonization and technology cost drivers: considerations for potential future thermoelectric water use in the power sector

The power sector is currently undergoing significant changes, driven by a combination of factors, including decarbonization and technology innovation. This study aims to assess implications of these drivers on U.S. power sector technology futures and the associated water and environmental implications for cooling thermoelectric power plants. Specifically, we evaluate four decarbonization scenarios for the contiguous United States that vary in assumptions concerning demand growth and technology costs, with technology costs driving alternative outcomes that prioritize either technologies that require low amounts of water (such as wind, solar, and battery) or high amounts of water (such as nuclear and carbon capture and storage). These scenarios are executed in a power sector capacity expansion model and compared to two reference scenarios that assume status quo with policy and cost drivers. Our analysis indicates that future U.S. thermoelectric water withdrawals could decrease by 25%–60%, but water consumption could more than triple in some scenarios. These changes are driven by a combination of retirement of some power facilities, shifts in cooling technologies, and new technology deployment. The water use patterns vary across the United States, with the eastern regions demonstrating a lot more variability in water consumption across scenarios than western regions. However, local concerns can influence these possible investments, since increased water consumption can exacerbate water scarcity, leading to conflicts among competing users and affecting regional social, environmental, and economic dynamics. Future work should consider possible costs associated with alternate water sources, as well as improve the representation of water constraints within simulations. Inclusion of extreme events and alternate modeling platforms (e.g. production cost modeling and resource adequacy) may also be warranted to further stress test the robustness of these possible technology futures. Such assessments will be critical for ensuring decarbonization and other infrastructure-oriented investments lead to a reliable and resilient power grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Development of a high-fidelity multi-physics coupling between MCNP6.2 and CTF4.0 for VVER applications

Ensuring system safety in the design, licensing, and operation phases is a priority in the nuclear industry. Performing extensive, full-scale reactor safety experiments is often prohibitive due to the large associated costs. Computational simulations offer an alternative safety analysis method, typically with significant cost reductions. Recent high-level developments in technology and increased availability of computational resources have allowed the development of high-fidelity, high-resolution multi-physics coupled codes. Such developments may be used to generate reference models for deterministic core calculations. Under this framework, the high-fidelity continuous energy Monte Carlo-based neutron transport code MCNP6.2 was coupled externally with the state-of-the-art thermal-hydraulics subchannel code, CTF4.0 for VVER (Water-Water Energetic Reactor) applications. A VVER-1000 fuel assembly model was used to demonstrate the capability of the coupled code. The converged coupled solution is compared to initial results, consisting of the first MCNP evaluation and first CTF evaluation after initialization. The VVER-1000 type assembly results are compared to other evaluations of the same assembly model. The findings indicate good agreement with expectations and reference cases, where available. The initial results of the coupled MCNP6.2/CTF4.0 calculations at the assembly level for steady-state calculations are presented in this study, which may support future work toward high-fidelity coupled full-core modeling capabilities. The multi-physics model may be further improved, enhanced, and expanded for both cycle depletion and transient applications. Such a multi-physics system will also be applicable to the VVER-1200 and other triangular lattice designs and support their deployment and operation safely and economically. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Techno-Economic Implications of Electrical Machine Scaling for Wave Energy Converters: Preprint

The sizing of an electrical machine for a Wave Energy Converter (WEC) can have a substantial impact on the overall sizing, cost, and rating of the device. An electrical generator is typically part of the power take-off (PTO) system, which is the mechanism by which the energy absorbed by the prime mover is transformed into useable electrical. For practically all WECs, the rate of change of actuation is predominantly determined by the wave resource (i.e., the wave height and frequency) and devices will see a sinusoidally varying velocity according to the wave conditions. The same can then be said for both directly and indirectly coupled PTOs with electrical generators. This techno-economic study investigates electrical machine scaling and associated cost implications through core machine design theory, manufacturer data, supporting literature, and the DOE sponsored Reference Model Project (RMP). The RMP was a partnered effort to develop open-source marine energy (ME) point designs as reference models (RMs) to benchmark ME technology performance and costs, methods for design and analysis of ME technologies, estimations for capital costs, operational costs, and levelized costs of energy (LCOE). The results from this study show torque is directly related to (1) the physical size of the machine required to increase the airgap sheer stresses, (2) the amount of active material, (3) the support structure, (4) bearing size and rating, and (5) offshore cable rating, all of which have a significant effect on overall system costs in terms of both CAPEX and OPEX. This paper aims to be a critical benchmark in helping determine an “optimal” nameplate rating for wave energy devices and their associated PTO. With an optimized rating and sizing process, WEC costs can be reduced, and overall performance can be improved.

cables↗

DOE OSTI2022

Techno-Economic Implications of Electrical Machine Scaling for Wave Energy Converters

cables↗

NASA NTRS1995

Atmospheric environmental implications of propulsion systems

Three independent studies have been conducted for assessing the impact of rocket launches on the earth's environment. These studies have addressed issues of acid rain in the troposphere, ozone depletion in the stratosphere, toxicity of chemical rocket exhaust products, and the potential impact on global warming from carbon dioxide emissions from rocket launches. Local, regional, and global impact assessments were examined and compared with both natural sources and anthropogenic sources of known atmospheric pollutants with the following conclusions: (1) Neither solid nor liquid rocket launches have a significant impact on the earth's global environment, and there is no real significant difference between the two. (2) Regional and local atmospheric impacts are more significant than global impacts, but quickly return to normal background conditions within a few hours after launch. And (3) vastly increased space launch activities equivalent to 50 U.S. Space Shuttles or 50 Russian Energia launches per year would not significantly impact these conclusions. However, these assessments, for the most part, are based upon homogeneous gas phase chemistry analysis; heterogeneous chemistry from exhaust particulates, such as aluminum oxide, ice contrails, soot, etc., and the influence of plume temperature and afterburning of fuel-rich exhaust products, need to be further addressed. It was the consensus of these studies that computer modeling of interactive plume chemistry with the atmosphere needs to be improved and computer models need to be verified with experimental data. Rocket exhaust plume chemistry can be modified with propellant reformulation and changes in operating conditions, but, based upon the current state of knowledge, it does not appear that significant environmental improvements from propellant formulation changes can be made or are warranted. Flight safety, reliability, and cost improvements are paramount for any new rocket system, and these important aspects cannot be compromised. A detailed environmental cost-benefit-risk analysis must be conducted before any new chemistry or changes in rocket operating conditions should be seriously considered for any future space or defense applications. This paper presents a summary of the results of environmental assessments contained in these independent studies.

Mcdonald, Allan J.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Acetolysis for Epoxy-Amine Carbon Fibre-Reinforced Polymer Recycling

Carbon fibre-reinforced polymers (CFRPs) are used in many applications in the global energy transition, including for lightweighting aircraft and vehicles and in wind turbine blades, shipping containers and gas storage vessels1,2,3,4. Given the high cost and energy-intensive manufacture of CFRPs5,6,7, recycling strategies are needed that recover intact carbon fibres and the epoxy-amine resin components. Here we show that acetic acid efficiently depolymerizes both aliphatic and aromatic epoxy-amine thermosets used in CFRPs to recoverable monomers, yielding pristine carbon fibres. Deconstruction of materials from multiple sectors demonstrates the broad applicability of this approach, providing clean fibres from 2 h reactions. The optimal conditions were scaled to 80.0 g of post-consumer CFRPs, and demonstrative composites were fabricated from the recycled carbon fibres, which were recycled two more times, maintaining their strength throughout. Process modelling and techno-economic analysis, with feedstock cost informed by wind turbine blade waste generation8, indicates this method is cost effective, with a minimum selling price of US$1.50 per kg for recycled carbon fibres whereas life cycle assessment shows process greenhouse gas emissions around 99% lower than virgin carbon fibre production. Overall, this approach could enable recycling of industrial CFRPs as it provides clean, mechanically viable recycled carbon fibres and recoverable resin monomers from the thermoset.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

NASA NTRS1982

Low-cost composite blades for the Mod-0A wind turbines

Low cost approaches to the design and fabrication of blades for a two-bladed 200 kW wind turbine were identified and the applicability of the techniques to larger and smaller blades was assessed. Blade tooling was designed and fabricated. Two complete blades and a partial blade for tool tryout were built. The patented TFT process was used to wind the entire blade. This process allows rapid winding of an axially oriented composite onto a tapered mandrel, with tapered wall thickness. The blade consists of a TFT glass-epoxy airfoil structure filament wound onto a steel root end fitting. The fitting is, in turn, bolted to a conical steel adapter section to provide for mounting attachment to the hub. Structural analysis, blade properties, and cost and weight analysis are described.

Weingart, O.↗